WayexTDI
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:28 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Honestly, going to COMAC for a deal isn’t a horrible idea.

Sure, it'll leave them about 10 years to secure financing and see how the market evolve before they get the first plane...


If I’m not mistaken, a US leasing company has five coming in the late 2019-2020 timeframe.

GECAS has indeed 5 orders (+ 20 options) for the ARJ21, placed in 2008; for which deliveries were initially supposed to start in 2013...
So, if Midwest was to place an order today, based on the length of time between order and delivery GECAS is experiencing, they can expect their planes 10 years from now. QED (quod erat demonstrandum, thus it has been demonstrated).

In any case, that was sarcasm.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:14 am

Don’t be the least bit surprised if the new Midwest Express intends to be much more like the new Skyway. Midwest Express made money for dozens of consecutive quarters when the only other airline with a similar streak was Southwest. Their tight focus on serving business travelers is what got them the high yields necessary to overcome the high costs of the premium product. They:

--Offered a consistent business-timed schedule
--Served markets with a significant, poorly-served business traffic segment
--Charged fares identical to (not higher than) the business fares of competitors
--Carried a high percentage of local point-to-point traffic, and what connections they did serve were mostly from high-fare feeder markets.

The higher yield came from carrying a higher proportion of business travelers who paid top fares and fewer discounts and junky connections, not from being able to charge more than the competition. They were never able to push much of a fare advantage based on the premium product. They didn’t generally have to match lowball connecting fares, but if American’s nonstops to Dallas were $279 one way Midwest couldn’t charge $289 without seeing erosion. The seating and service sometimes helped people choose Midwest over American when fares were identical, but more than that was Midwest reliably had nonstops ideally timed for business where for years American was off and on, Midwest had the best frequent flyer program if you were in Milwaukee. When Skyway came along some observers felt it would ruin Midwest Express because the Beech 1900 was decidedly not a premium experience. Not only did they do well but in “mixed” markets like Cleveland and Columbus there was no booking away from the prop. If it went at the time they wanted to go they were happily paying the same fare as the big leather seats and shrimp cocktail snack a few hours earlier or later.

Fast forward to Milwaukee in 2019.

None of the big business markets are so underserved that the new Midwest Express would have a significant advantage.
New York, Newark, Washington, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Denver, Dallas all have nonstop flights, and in each market somebody offers flights at business-friendly times. To be sure some markets could benefit from competition or bigger aircraft or an added frequency, but Midwest won’t make a cent trying to fill that role. The west coast markets are a tough nut to crack because high-fare business traffic is a much lower proportion and the distance makes it harder to serve. The old Midwest never made money to LAX/SFO in premium seating even in the best days...they said exactly that.

Where Milwaukee may have room for the new Midwest are routes which Skyway used to serve. Places like Columbus, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and perhaps a few others. In markets like these Midwest Express would be the only carrier. These markets still garner comparably high business fares but because there are only connecting flights now many passengers have switched to the highway or drive to O’Hare for nonstops. Consistent business-timed nonstops would give Midwest Express an advantage in pulling traffic away from connecting competitors, the highway or the drive to O’Hare.

Likely the biggest challenge will be to get enough people back into the habit of flying for business travel in markets like these. In the years since there was nonstop service in these city pairs business travelers have gotten into the habit of driving, flying out of O’Hare, putting up with a connection, or phoning more and visiting less. But there's potential well beyond the size of these markets today. Some here will undoubtedly pull out the quarterly DoT stats and say “there are only N passengers per day between Milwaukee and XXX” and that’s not enough. A couple of issues with that:

1. Those stats do not reflect passengers lost to the highway, O’Hare or the phone.
2. Nonstop flights tend to stimulate demand in a number of ways.
3. If you go backwards in the DoT stats into the years when there was nonstop service those numbers were often incomplete. Far enough back and Skyway didn’t report. Then later Chautauqua didn’t report in the years they operated YX* and later F9*.
4. The per-day average stats are the weekly passengers spread over 7 days, but in short-ish business markets there’s very little demand on Saturday and Sunday morning. A market reporting 55 daily passengers might be more like 70 on the average weekday, 30 on Sunday and 5 on Saturday. Midwest probably won't fly on Saturdays or Sunday mornings in these markets.

So I don’t think one can write off these markets as obviously too small to support RJ service. And yes, most likely it would need to be RJ’s, but for a nonstop flight an RJ is more than acceptable.

There’s one additional aspect making many of these routes especially well suited to regional flying. Driving is always a big competitor to regional flying. Most of these best MKE routes are to the east/southeast, and Lake Michigan blocks a direct drive and forces people to drive the length of Chicagoland and Chicago traffic. Here's an example of how impactful that is. MKE-CMH and JAX-MIA are about 330 miles. The drive from Jacksonville to Miami is about 5.5 hours but Milwaukee-Columbus is about 7.5 hours. The circuitous routing and need to fight Chicago makes people more eager to fly to Columbus than you'd expce on a typical 330-mile hop. It’s the same with PIT, with IND, with CVG, etc.

One could reasonably ask if there’s money to be made why hasn’t somebody like Delta put an RJ in a market like MKE-CMH?

--Network-wise it doesn’t really contribute anything to the Delta system.
--Delta already gets a good deal of the MKE-CMH revenue which still flies via MKE-DTW-CMH. So adding MKE-CMH nonstop would dilute a bit from MKE-DTW and DTW-CMH.
--A route like this has very low priority when it comes to determining how to use limited resources.

It’s always possible that if, say, Midwest Express launches MKE-RDU that suddenly Delta sees the light and finally adds MKE-RDU. But for the most part the sorts of city pairs Midwest Express would fly out of Milwaukee are too small for other airlines to bother with and not competitively significant enough to get juiced up over.

Any new airline faces difficult odds, certainly. Midwest Express will be no different. But if they do make it to the air don’t expect them to have the premium service. And unless they totally switch gears and become a big-aircraft ULCC don’t look for Orlando, Vegas or the west coast, either. RJ routes with high-fare business travel is probably their best shot.

Two other quick points....

1. The office space Midwest Express leased from the airport was probably very cheap. It's a smallish decades-old building in the former 440th air refueling base complex.

2. OneJet was an airline concept shockingly disconnected from accountability and economic reality.. At least that's how it clearly appears in hingsight, and like any Ponzi scheme it could only last so long. They were incredibly effective at selling the vision and getting people to invest. But it was all about robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the saying goes. Several Milwaukee-area businesspeople invested in OneJet including former Midwest Express founder Tim Hoeksema who was picked to join in an advisory role. The OneJet way of doing business was long established by that point and I suspect when he recognized what was going on he didn't stick around long. I believe he's one of the Milwaukee investors with claim against OneJet, though likely nobody will see a cent. What's especially unfortunate about OneJet is that it hurts the credibility of potential operators who focus on point-to-point regional flying. That Ultimate survives and makes money year after year shows how it can be done if the situation is right.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:56 pm

knope2001 wrote:
OneJet was an airline concept shockingly disconnected from accountability and economic reality.. At least that's how it clearly appears in hingsight, and like any Ponzi scheme it could only last so long. They were incredibly effective at selling the vision and getting people to invest. But it was all about robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the saying goes. Several Milwaukee-area businesspeople invested in OneJet including former Midwest Express founder Tim Hoeksema who was picked to join in an advisory role. The OneJet way of doing business was long established by that point and I suspect when he recognized what was going on he didn't stick around long. I believe he's one of the Milwaukee investors with claim against OneJet, though likely nobody will see a cent. What's especially unfortunate about OneJet is that it hurts the credibility of potential operators who focus on point-to-point regional flying. That Ultimate survives and makes money year after year shows how it can be done if the situation is right.


I should probably clarify that I don't think OneJet was a Ponzi scheme from the start, but rather that there was a lot of magical thinking, lying, and lack of accountability. It ultimately came to resemble a Ponzi scheme because money solicited for fanciful growth promises appears instead to have gone to keep the house of cards standing. I don’t want to turn this into a OneJet thread but their failure gives a black eye to anyone trying to serve the regional point-to-point segment.
 
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enilria
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:58 pm

I still think this has the odds stacked heavily against it. The current price of oil being a part of the trouble, but I wish them great success.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:13 pm

The Milwaukee Business Journal yesterday posted a story “Love for Midwest Express Remains Strong”

https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/n ... j=87961801

It becomes more evident each time that we publish a story on the comeback attempt of the Midwest Express Airlines’ brand that, despite being gone for more than a decade, the love for Milwaukee’s hometown airline has not lessened.
The recent story that Midwest Express had secured a one-year, renewable lease to establish a corporate headquarters in the MKE Regional Business Park near Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport was easily the most-read story on our website for the week of April 8.


In recent days it has become the most-asked question that I receive when I am at community events, meetings or a Bucks playoff game — can they really restart the airline that everyone remembers for the leather seats, gourmet meals with real silverware, direct flights and, of course, chocolate chip cookies?

This is where the Midwest Express name can be a double-edged sword. The brand name has exceptional value here. Yet when something becomes legendary it’s pretty much impossible to live up to that legend. People have very selective memories. Back in the mid/late 90’s when Midwest still had the broadly-premium seating and service they still only had a MKE market share in the 25-35% range. Can’t begin to count the number of flyers I talked with back in those days who had never flown Midwest, both leisure who would fly a connection to save 50 cents and business who would not give up their FF segments or miles. When Midwest moved into the leisure markets post 9/11 most of the premium aspects were winding down, but market share grew to 50%+ and lots of people who had never flown them became experts after flying them to Orlando or Vegas. The cookies are a nice, differentiating touch and it sounds like the new Midwest Express will keep them. But if they are able to get back in the air it will be a challenge to not disappoint. What may help them is that the people with fuzzy, aggrandized memories of the past are not the customer base they need to win.

enilria wrote:
I still think this has the odds stacked heavily against it. The current price of oil being a part of the trouble, but I wish them great success.


Oil is a definite concern – RJ’s are more vulnerable to fuel prices than larger, newer aircraft. Higher oil makes fewer routes viable for RJ’s in general. Can’t imagine this is helping their already-difficult efforts.
Last edited by knope2001 on Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
slider
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:18 pm

Nostalgia for TWA still runs deep too, but that doesn't pay the bills.

Reviving YX is a bad idea with no market need at all, sadly, today. And I was a huge YX fan, believed in them highly, hated to see them disappear. But it's a different day.
 
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enilria
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:46 pm

knope2001 wrote:
The Milwaukee Business Journal yesterday posted a story “Love for Midwest Express Remains Strong”

https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/n ... j=87961801

It becomes more evident each time that we publish a story on the comeback attempt of the Midwest Express Airlines’ brand that, despite being gone for more than a decade, the love for Milwaukee’s hometown airline has not lessened.
The recent story that Midwest Express had secured a one-year, renewable lease to establish a corporate headquarters in the MKE Regional Business Park near Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport was easily the most-read story on our website for the week of April 8.


In recent days it has become the most-asked question that I receive when I am at community events, meetings or a Bucks playoff game — can they really restart the airline that everyone remembers for the leather seats, gourmet meals with real silverware, direct flights and, of course, chocolate chip cookies?

This is where the Midwest Express name can be a double-edged sword. The brand name has exceptional value here. Yet when something becomes legendary it’s pretty much impossible to live up to that legend. People have very selective memories. Back in the mid/late 90’s when Midwest still had the broadly-premium seating and service they still only had a MKE market share in the 25-35% range. Can’t begin to count the number of flyers I talked with back in those days who had never flown Midwest, both leisure who would fly a connection to save 50 cents and business who would not give up their FF segments or miles. When Midwest moved into the leisure markets post 9/11 most of the premium aspects were winding down, but market share grew to 50%+ and lots of people who had never flown them became experts after flying them to Orlando or Vegas. The cookies are a nice, differentiating touch and it sounds like the new Midwest Express will keep them. But if they are able to get back in the air it will be a challenge to not disappoint. What may help them is that the people with fuzzy, aggrandized memories of the past are not the customer base they need to win.


Those are problems they hope to make it to having. Looking at Via does not inspire confidence of financial stability for the model.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:02 pm

Next up on the revive/nostalgia list:

AirTran??? TWA???

AirTWA!!!
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
ScottB
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:33 pm

DL717 wrote:
The 428 program cancellation dashed a lot of their dreams for the future of SkyWay.

JBo wrote:
I also recall there ended up being some legal disputes between YX and Fairchild-Dornier over the cancellation of the 428JET program (Skyway was to be a launch customer), and I believe there ended up being a settlement where YX was compensated financially


The settlement from the 428JET program cancellation helped to keep YX afloat after 9/11. Fairchild-Dornier paid Midwest $39.5 million to settle and that turned a $50-million-plus operating loss in 2002 into a net loss of $10.5 million. IMO it was a bit of a Pyrrhic victory as that settlement hastened FaiDor's failure and the value of the 328JET fleet at Skyway was impaired as a result.

JBo wrote:
Uncle Timmy ran the ship into the ground. The industry was changing and he didn't have the knowledge or ability to change Midwest's business model along with it, and his ego prevented him from handing the reins off to someone who could.


Nah, I think he really did as well as could be expected, and he turned what was an unsustainable competitive position long-term into a decent payout for shareholders. Midwest's share price dropped below $1 in 2002 and yet he managed to sell the company off for $17/share. Once AirTran decided they were either going to buy Midwest or take MKE over by overwhelming YX with new service, it was all over. And the timing was remarkable as the deal closed months before the global financial crisis began -- and that would have ultimately taken Midwest down with it.

Knope tells the story better than I can, but the ultimate expansion of LCCs like FL and WN, with decent business-oriented schedules, (not to mention the rise of ULCCs) would have meant the end of YX. The business-class-for-the-price-of-coach model worked in markets with little or no direct LCC competition -- and MKE had almost no LCC competition. YX wasn't cheap in those days, but they weren't more expensive than the legacy carriers, and the latter didn't offer non-stop service in several key business markets from MKE.
 
KCaviator
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:50 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Next up on the revive/nostalgia list:

AirTran??? TWA???

AirTWA!!!


AirTwan
 
strfyr51
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:57 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Would the E190 make a good fleet? AA and JetBlue will be getting rid of theirs soon and they could pick them up at a reasonable price I would think.

The E190 isn't a bad Idea. Embraer is still supporting the airplane and it's not obsolete. If they needed smaller airplanes? They could acquire E170's and 175's flr smaller work.
 
VS11
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:04 pm

In view of the various multiple options to either rent or share a private plane - PlaneSense, Wheels Up, etc., targeting business people only does not appear to be a great idea.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:45 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
Would the E190 make a good fleet? AA and JetBlue will be getting rid of theirs soon and they could pick them up at a reasonable price I would think.

The E190 isn't a bad Idea. Embraer is still supporting the airplane and it's not obsolete. If they needed smaller airplanes? They could acquire E170's and 175's flr smaller work.


Hypothetically, what if they bought the remainder of Great Lakes’ unsold fleet and the former fleet of ADI/CPair??? I’m sure that the planes would come pretty cheap. I found a ‘94 (not too terrible, still 6 years younger than AA’s oldest MD80s) Beech 1900 for only $450,000. EMB 120s can go for about that much, too.

Three EMB 120s still for sale from Great Lakes:

https://www.avbuyer.com/aircraft/turbop ... er/emb-120

https://www.controller.com/listings/air ... raft-1900d (not Great Lakes, but still 1900d)
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
SkyVoice
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Fri Apr 26, 2019 6:53 am

knope2001 wrote:
That Ultimate survives and makes money year after year shows how it can be done if the situation is right.


That is quite true. Amazing, since Ultimate's Cincinnati flights operate from "Sunken Lunken" (LUK) instead of CVG. But, some other airlines continue to serve their corner of the world quite well, adding long-haul service to complement service within their core regions. Alaska & Hawaiian come immediately to mind. There are others. Of course, the world has changed since those two carriers were founded.

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Next up on the revive/nostalgia list:

AirTran??? TWA???

AirTWA!!!


I SWEAR, someday someone will try to reboot ValuJet! :banghead:
"Your talents may take you where your character can not keep you." - Terry Nelson
 
Blueknows
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:04 am

SkyWest also announced today that it has agreed to lease 29 CRJ700 aircraft to a third-party for a ten-year term, subject to the finalization of their flying contract.

Could this be midwest express?via?contour?
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Fri Apr 26, 2019 11:59 am

Blueknows wrote:
SkyWest also announced today that it has agreed to lease 29 CRJ700 aircraft to a third-party for a ten-year term, subject to the finalization of their flying contract.

Could this be midwest express?via?contour?


29 sounds like a lot for carriers of these sizes. I’d expect Midwest to start out with something like five planes. I’m thinking Air Canada or F9 (if they REALLY want to be in the regional game again).

But Midwest certainly is a possibility.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
n7371f
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:52 am

This thing has hot mess all over it. Midwest Express was awesome...in a different day and age. The only resurrection that's worked is Frontier. And the current state of Frontier is as far out in left field as the original and the initial second version was.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:34 am

knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
OneJet was an airline concept shockingly disconnected from accountability and economic reality.. At least that's how it clearly appears in hingsight, and like any Ponzi scheme it could only last so long. They were incredibly effective at selling the vision and getting people to invest. But it was all about robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the saying goes. Several Milwaukee-area businesspeople invested in OneJet including former Midwest Express founder Tim Hoeksema who was picked to join in an advisory role. The OneJet way of doing business was long established by that point and I suspect when he recognized what was going on he didn't stick around long. I believe he's one of the Milwaukee investors with claim against OneJet, though likely nobody will see a cent. What's especially unfortunate about OneJet is that it hurts the credibility of potential operators who focus on point-to-point regional flying. That Ultimate survives and makes money year after year shows how it can be done if the situation is right.


I should probably clarify that I don't think OneJet was a Ponzi scheme from the start, but rather that there was a lot of magical thinking, lying, and lack of accountability. It ultimately came to resemble a Ponzi scheme because money solicited for fanciful growth promises appears instead to have gone to keep the house of cards standing. I don’t want to turn this into a OneJet thread but their failure gives a black eye to anyone trying to serve the regional point-to-point segment.

Enterprise proved small jet p-p CAN work, (look it up. Incredible story, B.B. Rebozo, drug cartel money-laundering, DEA, etc.) if done right. What they did not have to contend with was pilot/Fo costs pushing $200+ an hour, due to a shortage of pilots, on a 90 minute flight in a beechjet, that’s upwards of $50 per pax, just in crew cost.

Short-haul Midwest was a huge money-maker, on turboprops, Airlines like Comair needed wheelbarrows to carry the cash to the bank. Then the CRJ’s came along, and instead of needing four or five Y pax to break even, you needed 25.

I believe there is a market for that type of service, but is it enough to support jets? I’m not sure.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 28, 2019 5:46 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
OneJet was an airline concept shockingly disconnected from accountability and economic reality.. At least that's how it clearly appears in hingsight, and like any Ponzi scheme it could only last so long. They were incredibly effective at selling the vision and getting people to invest. But it was all about robbing Peter to pay Paul, as the saying goes. Several Milwaukee-area businesspeople invested in OneJet including former Midwest Express founder Tim Hoeksema who was picked to join in an advisory role. The OneJet way of doing business was long established by that point and I suspect when he recognized what was going on he didn't stick around long. I believe he's one of the Milwaukee investors with claim against OneJet, though likely nobody will see a cent. What's especially unfortunate about OneJet is that it hurts the credibility of potential operators who focus on point-to-point regional flying. That Ultimate survives and makes money year after year shows how it can be done if the situation is right.


I should probably clarify that I don't think OneJet was a Ponzi scheme from the start, but rather that there was a lot of magical thinking, lying, and lack of accountability. It ultimately came to resemble a Ponzi scheme because money solicited for fanciful growth promises appears instead to have gone to keep the house of cards standing. I don’t want to turn this into a OneJet thread but their failure gives a black eye to anyone trying to serve the regional point-to-point segment.

Enterprise proved small jet p-p CAN work, (look it up. Incredible story, B.B. Rebozo, drug cartel money-laundering, DEA, etc.) if done right. What they did not have to contend with was pilot/Fo costs pushing $200+ an hour, due to a shortage of pilots, on a 90 minute flight in a beechjet, that’s upwards of $50 per pax, just in crew cost.

Short-haul Midwest was a huge money-maker, on turboprops, Airlines like Comair needed wheelbarrows to carry the cash to the bank. Then the CRJ’s came along, and instead of needing four or five Y pax to break even, you needed 25.

I believe there is a market for that type of service, but is it enough to support jets? I’m not sure.


They should really be in the 0.5-1 hour flight market.

If they wanted to start out as a “virtual airline” by doing public charters on thirty seat jets, then that will cost about 4,000 dollars per hour of flying (through ultimate).

A flight to Indy from MKE would only be profitable after 17/30 seats on the aircraft are occupied. That’s a cutthroat business, in my opinion.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
F9Animal
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:09 pm

Are we certain at this point that they are considering the CRJ? I am pretty sure the leadership in place are well aware that the CRJ would be a bad choice, especially the 200.

I think the A220 would be a sensible choice for them. Throw in a chocolate chip cookie, and I am gonna be flying on them! LOL!
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:40 pm

F9Animal wrote:
Are we certain at this point that they are considering the CRJ? I am pretty sure the leadership in place are well aware that the CRJ would be a bad choice, especially the 200.

I think the A220 would be a sensible choice for them. Throw in a chocolate chip cookie, and I am gonna be flying on them! LOL!


No, this is not entirely certain yet.

In my opinion, their best bet is a mix of 100 seat and 30-50 seat aircraft.

I would say that they will most likely take the E2/A220 type aircraft and ERJ/CRJ type aircraft. Probably nothing over a large RJ.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
rj1385
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Sun Apr 28, 2019 6:43 pm

Skywest also has their order for 100 MRJs they could look at. Not sure when those planes are actually supposed to land next year.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:16 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Are we certain at this point that they are considering the CRJ? I am pretty sure the leadership in place are well aware that the CRJ would be a bad choice, especially the 200.

I think the A220 would be a sensible choice for them. Throw in a chocolate chip cookie, and I am gonna be flying on them! LOL!


No, this is not entirely certain yet.

In my opinion, their best bet is a mix of 100 seat and 30-50 seat aircraft.

I would say that they will most likely take the E2/A220 type aircraft and ERJ/CRJ type aircraft. Probably nothing over a large RJ.


I brainstormed the A220 and Midwest. The 3 by 2 seating could really come in handy the more I think about it! For example, the 2 seat side could be the premium seating with say a little extra legroom by removing a row? And the economy seating could be used on the 3 seat side? Of course, throw in the chocolate chip cookie, and bam!!! Midwest is back.

I hope the top brass at Midwest are kicking the A220 tires. I think it would be one of the best fleet types for this restart. It would also be a bonus if they added IFE as well.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
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KGRB
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:41 pm

F9Animal wrote:
I brainstormed the A220 and Midwest. The 3 by 2 seating could really come in handy the more I think about it! For example, the 2 seat side could be the premium seating with say a little extra legroom by removing a row? And the economy seating could be used on the 3 seat side? Of course, throw in the chocolate chip cookie, and bam!!! Midwest is back.

I hope the top brass at Midwest are kicking the A220 tires. I think it would be one of the best fleet types for this restart. It would also be a bonus if they added IFE as well.

Acquiring brand new planes (or even leasing them) would take a massive amount of capital -- far more than I suspect the investors will be able to come up with. The costs of obtaining a part 121 certificate alone are enormous. Then you have to factor in pilot/FA/mechanic hiring, developing a training program, acquiring spares, insurance costs, etc.

I agree with most of the posters who feel that this is a pipe dream that will never leave the ground, but I think their best chance at success is to outsource the flying to SkyWest -- initially with the CRJ-200 and possibly the CRJ-700/900 or EMB-175 down the road, if the initial service proves successful. SkyWest already has all of the infrastructure in place to run an airline, including their biggest maintenance base at the former YX hangar in MKE. There are so many CRJ-200s in storage that the service could get up and running much more quickly than starting an airline from scratch.

"Midwest Express" could be a virtual airline that sells tickets and runs a frequent flyer program, with all aspects of the flying, including the ground handling, handled by SkyWest.
First flight: NW DC-10 MKE-MSP December 1996
Most recent flight: DL/OO CRJ-900 ATL-GRB April 2019
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Wed May 01, 2019 5:20 pm

KGRB wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
I brainstormed the A220 and Midwest. The 3 by 2 seating could really come in handy the more I think about it! For example, the 2 seat side could be the premium seating with say a little extra legroom by removing a row? And the economy seating could be used on the 3 seat side? Of course, throw in the chocolate chip cookie, and bam!!! Midwest is back.

I hope the top brass at Midwest are kicking the A220 tires. I think it would be one of the best fleet types for this restart. It would also be a bonus if they added IFE as well.

Acquiring brand new planes (or even leasing them) would take a massive amount of capital -- far more than I suspect the investors will be able to come up with. The costs of obtaining a part 121 certificate alone are enormous. Then you have to factor in pilot/FA/mechanic hiring, developing a training program, acquiring spares, insurance costs, etc.

I agree with most of the posters who feel that this is a pipe dream that will never leave the ground, but I think their best chance at success is to outsource the flying to SkyWest -- initially with the CRJ-200 and possibly the CRJ-700/900 or EMB-175 down the road, if the initial service proves successful. SkyWest already has all of the infrastructure in place to run an airline, including their biggest maintenance base at the former YX hangar in MKE. There are so many CRJ-200s in storage that the service could get up and running much more quickly than starting an airline from scratch.

"Midwest Express" could be a virtual airline that sells tickets and runs a frequent flyer program, with all aspects of the flying, including the ground handling, handled by SkyWest.


Ultimate runs Taos Air (and at one point OneJet), and their tickets are relatively cheap for 279 dollars at two hours.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
strangeplanes
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Wed May 15, 2019 6:32 am

Midwest overhauled their website.

https://flymidwestexpress.com
 
CLTDAL
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Wed May 15, 2019 12:07 pm

The website looks very nice. Its branded very well also. This is going to start....I'm wondering what aircraft and initial cities??? Also if they will train at another carriers facility being they may not have sims/cabin trainers, etc. I would speculate a late 2019 start. I'm going to guess either a large RJ ( 700/900) or Embraer 170/175/190/E2. Possible midwest cities to start.....high frequency and short flights. Then expansion to larger markets such as BDL/PVD, PHL, DCA, CLT, ATL, MEM, HOU, AUS, LAX( possibly.....)
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 12:09 am

What the updated website says -- and does not not say -- suggests they are likely going down the path I mentioned. Nonstop flights in underserved MKE markets timed to optimize business travel. That's their opening in Milwaukee.

What they do reference:
--Nonstop routes
--Same-day round trip travel allowing a full day of business
--Remedying the decrease in flights and nonstop destionations from MKE
--No annoying fees
--Top-notch customer service
--Cookies

What they do not reference
--Premium seating
--Onboard meals
--Promises to serve top destinations
--Anything suggesting high-volume leisure markets

No word suggesting things like aircraf type, if they will be 100% point-to-point or do any sort of connecting at MKE, what fare structuring they plan, if they are aiming to become a true certified airline or subcontract, etc. But I do think they see their niche as lost markets mostly in the 300-450 miles range with an intense business-traveler focus.
 
kiowa
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 1:38 am

I quit flying out of Milwaukee years ago but would consider it again if they had a quality carrier. Ohare is considerably longer to drive but well worth it for me currrently. I have read a few articles about the new Midex. I will be suprised if they get off the ground but I wish them the best. It seems to be pie in the sky at this point, or cookie if you will. It reminds me of the employees of Eastern that tried to get it going again for many years without success.
 
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MKE22
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 5:09 am

strangeplanes wrote:
Midwest overhauled their website.

https://flymidwestexpress.com


This is incredible, things seem to be happening quite fast, allegedly.
 
CLTDAL
Posts: 34
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 12:59 pm

I REALLY am interested in the aircraft they chose. The new Mitsubishi Regional Jet is apparently turning up the heat!!! It looks like a great aircraft. This could work out well.....new airline.....new launch customer.....good deal on multiple frames????
 
2175301
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 2:17 pm

CLTDAL wrote:
I REALLY am interested in the aircraft they chose. The new Mitsubishi Regional Jet is apparently turning up the heat!!! It looks like a great aircraft. This could work out well.....new airline.....new launch customer.....good deal on multiple frames????


In my opinion: They will go with tried and true aircraft. A new untried aircraft introduces too many unknowns about O&M cost and in service time to solely bet a company on.

Have a great day,
 
baje427
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 2:39 pm

If this does go forward the A220 would be s good choice but I am thinking they will go with used A319/20.
 
F9Animal
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 3:05 pm

KGRB wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
I brainstormed the A220 and Midwest. The 3 by 2 seating could really come in handy the more I think about it! For example, the 2 seat side could be the premium seating with say a little extra legroom by removing a row? And the economy seating could be used on the 3 seat side? Of course, throw in the chocolate chip cookie, and bam!!! Midwest is back.

I hope the top brass at Midwest are kicking the A220 tires. I think it would be one of the best fleet types for this restart. It would also be a bonus if they added IFE as well.

Acquiring brand new planes (or even leasing them) would take a massive amount of capital -- far more than I suspect the investors will be able to come up with. The costs of obtaining a part 121 certificate alone are enormous. Then you have to factor in pilot/FA/mechanic hiring, developing a training program, acquiring spares, insurance costs, etc.

I agree with most of the posters who feel that this is a pipe dream that will never leave the ground, but I think their best chance at success is to outsource the flying to SkyWest -- initially with the CRJ-200 and possibly the CRJ-700/900 or EMB-175 down the road, if the initial service proves successful. SkyWest already has all of the infrastructure in place to run an airline, including their biggest maintenance base at the former YX hangar in MKE. There are so many CRJ-200s in storage that the service could get up and running much more quickly than starting an airline from scratch.

"Midwest Express" could be a virtual airline that sells tickets and runs a frequent flyer program, with all aspects of the flying, including the ground handling, handled by SkyWest.


We have seen some newbies start out with brand spanking new planes. JetBlue for example. I also think Midwest could get some pretty good deals on the 220 if they wanted. I think the 220 would be the best option over a CRJ.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
UWPAviation
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 3:10 pm

Do they have a operating certificate yet? If not, how long to obtain that along with aircraft, training and hiring staff?

I still think this is a long way out.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 3:42 pm

The issue with anything larger than a regional jet, however, is that the markets in their niche are probably not big enough to support notably larger aircraft. City pairs like MKE-PIT/CMH/OMA will be significantly stimulated by nonstop flights, reclaiming a lot of the traffic lost to the highway or to O’Hare. When (for example) business-timed nonstops return to MKE-CMH there will be more traffic than what DoT stats show currently flying today between the cities. But how much these markets can be reasonably stimulated is the question. If they go with high-cost RJ’s the high fares they will need to charge will put a damper on the stimulation. If they go with larger/newer/more efficient aircraft they can lower prices, but these markets are hardly bottomless when it comes to stimulation potential. With business-timed nonstops they may find there are 70 people each weekday willing to pay $200 to fly MKE-CMH, but if they need to find 200 people each day they may not get that many even with $39 fares. There’s only so much demand between the two cities which can be stimulated on a year-round ongoing basis.

It might not be a total either/or situation. Maybe with yield management they can get 100 people per day flying MKE-CMH by offering some lower-fare stimulation but still get most[i/] of the core 70 to pay $200. And maybe they will offer some connections over MKE. The traffic from limited local fare stimulation and connections can potentially mean [i]somewhat larger aircraft than the local market might suggest. But what they’ll live or die on is getting the core (mostly business travel) market willing to pay $200 to fly MKE-CMH. And the more they discount to fill seats the harder it is to keep the business travelers from using those discounts. Maybe like Ultimate they fly aircraft sized just for the high-fare market core market and discount very little. Or maybe they fly something larger and do carry a mix of revenue levels. But whatever they do they probably need to focus on the core segment willing to pay higher fares for convenience and keep the yields high from those passengers.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 4:15 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
Do they have a operating certificate yet? If not, how long to obtain that along with aircraft, training and hiring staff?

I still think this is a long way out.



There are likely three possible paths they could be taking:

(1) Launch a new carrier from scratch. That’s a big, big undertaking, and so far there doesn’t seem to be public information suggesting they are going this direction. Maybe this is the plan and maybe they’ve already done a great deal of work toward this direction. But well before they could start service this would start showing up clearly in the public documents. Doesn’t appear to have done so yet.

(2) Acquiring an existing certificate. This may be a more likely route for them and is much less effort than starting from scratch. The amount of work and lead time between acquisition and service launch would vary a lot based on exactly who/what they acquire. If (for example) they bought Air Wisconsin and planned to fly CRJ’s they could be in the sky fairly quickly. If they buy the certificate underlying the California Pacific operation with a goal of flying E75 there’s a whole lot more work (and time) between acquisition and service launch.

(3) Outsourcing as a Virtual Airline. They could simply subcontract with someone like Skywest to operate on their behalf. That’s likely the quickest and easiest way to the skies, but it may be the hardest to make money with and one with the least control for Midwest Express.

What might be especially interesting is a hybrid between 2 and 3. Perhaps there is a ground in which Skywest operates but they are more than a simple disinterested vendor of Midwest Express, one which could be swapped out for another vendor when the initial contract period expires. Hopefully things proceed far enough for us to at least find out their plans, and hopefully actually pan out.
 
rj1385
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 5:07 pm

I have asked the question previously before in a different forum. In the U.S. can you have a virtual airline and not actually fly your own aircraft? I feel like if allowed we would have seen it.
 
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Polot
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 5:57 pm

rj1385 wrote:
I have asked the question previously before in a different forum. In the U.S. can you have a virtual airline and not actually fly your own aircraft? I feel like if allowed we would have seen it.

We have seen it. They just usually don’t last very long. PeoplExpress 2.0 a few years ago was an example of a virtual airline.

Going virtual is cheaper, but you are at the mercy of whoever is flying for you. If they encounter financial difficulties, can’t source a spare in the event of unexpected removal of aircraft from service, decide to not renew contract, etc then you are in trouble too.
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 6:31 pm

rj1385 wrote:
I have asked the question previously before in a different forum. In the U.S. can you have a virtual airline and not actually fly your own aircraft? I feel like if allowed we would have seen it.


Hooters!
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 6:33 pm

Midwest Airlines itself operated as a virtual airline. The last flight under the Midwest operating certificate operated in early November 2019 and the certificate was surrendered. But Midwest Airlines as a brand, as an entity, still functioned for several months until ultimately the operation was rolled into Frontier.

Three examples of airlines which spent their entire life as virtual airlines were Hooters, the new People Express, and OneJet. None of those are glowing examples, of course, but they all operated as de facto airlines while fully delegating the technical logistics of the actual airline operation (certification, hiring, dispatch, compliance, maintenance, etc.) to the contractor. I’m not an expert on every detail, but bottom line is it appears the new Midwest Express could market itself, publish a schedule, sell via GDS, sign corporate contracts, etc. even if the flying is fully outsourced.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 7:09 pm

Polot wrote:
rj1385 wrote:
Going virtual is cheaper, but you are at the mercy of whoever is flying for you. If they encounter financial difficulties, can’t source a spare in the event of unexpected removal of aircraft from service, decide to not renew contract, etc then you are in trouble too.


That’s very true – ultimately it can be more expensive for you because the flying vendor must be paid no matter if you’re making money or not, but it’s much cheaper and far easier up front. But you’re very right about being at the mercy of your flying subcontractor. Imagine the difference if Midwest Express was currently flying and they had contracted out the operation to Skywest versus if they had contracted the operation out to Via Air. That’s in part why it might be a great hybrid if the new Midwest Express’ flying vendor had a stake in the company.

It’s an interesting thought. Let’s use Skywest for the moment as an example. I believe they could take surplus RJ’s today and start up a point-to-point operation at MKE or for that matter ONT, IND, BNA, MCI, SMF, etc. But to do so would require Skywest to bulk up on functionalities they have little or none of today. And the risk is entirely that of Skywest. So it may be better for Skywest to keep the status quo (including using a couple dozen RJ’s for EAS flying) rather than trying to start an independent branded operation with surplus aircraft. But now imagine Skywest is approached by a team of people with a solid business plan, extensive experience in the market they are proposing to enter, and significant financial backing. That could look very different to Skywest.

None of this is to say that it definitely is playing out this way, and even if it is that Skywest is the partner. But it is certainly not the most far-fetched scenario in the attempt to get Midwest Express up and running.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 8:21 pm

Could Midwest be more profitable with some EAS flying? It could be a guaranteed profit that will buffer any possible losses.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
KarlB737
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 9:18 pm

2175301 wrote:
To clarify what I think the market is: Primarily business travelers to St. Louis, Kansas City, etc where there are currently no direct flights (and even the connecting flights are expensive unless you book a month or more in advance). That was what the original Midwest was based on. Saved a lot of time waiting in other airports, and you had business class seats and good customer service. The aircraft will not be a current mainline aircraft - they are too large. I would expect 30-50 seats per aircraft. Have a great day,


Gulfstream500 wrote:
You mean like OneJet???


Gulfstream 500 makes an interesting point. To get a clearer picture as to what OneJet was thinking regarding their business structure here is a discussion with the OneJet CEO and individuals from Pittsburgh as they were discussing new Pittsburgh service. I add this here as I think it illuminates a partial parallel that the new Midwest Express maybe attempting to achieve out of MKE

Courtesy: YouTube
OneJet Expands Air Service at Pittsburgh International Airport

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph_JW6sh6G0

Also here is link to departed flights showing a route map for Midwest Express dated: January 6, 1997. I wonder how close to this original route map the new Midwest will try to achieve.

http://www.departedflights.com/YX010697.html
 
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knope2001
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 9:39 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Could Midwest be more profitable with some EAS flying? It could be a guaranteed profit that will buffer any possible losses.

Not too likely. EAS does best when the flights serve a hub with a big-airline branding behind it and lots of connectivity. The new Midwest Express wouldn’t have that – presumably they’d feed Milwaukee, and without online hub connections at MKE it would be tougher to succeed. And you can lose money flying EAS if you bid too low. Back in the legacy Midwest days they were rather successful in EAS flying to Manistee, Escanaba, Ironwood and Iron Mountain – even though MKE was not a mega-hub they offered reliable service, competitive fares and convenient well-timed connections to a couple dozen top markets. MKE still has nonstop flights to most of those major destinations but the connections would be interline and decidedly [i]not [i/d] coordinated and without joint fares. So I don’t think Midwest Express would be competitive if it was to bid for EAS markets. Most of the EAS cities within 150-250 miles of MKE have DL* or UA* flights they are happy with and to replace them with a MKE flight would be a step backwards for them.
 
Gulfstream500
Topic Author
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 11:33 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Gulfstream500 wrote:
Could Midwest be more profitable with some EAS flying? It could be a guaranteed profit that will buffer any possible losses.

Not too likely. EAS does best when the flights serve a hub with a big-airline branding behind it and lots of connectivity. The new Midwest Express wouldn’t have that – presumably they’d feed Milwaukee, and without online hub connections at MKE it would be tougher to succeed. And you can lose money flying EAS if you bid too low. Back in the legacy Midwest days they were rather successful in EAS flying to Manistee, Escanaba, Ironwood and Iron Mountain – even though MKE was not a mega-hub they offered reliable service, competitive fares and convenient well-timed connections to a couple dozen top markets. MKE still has nonstop flights to most of those major destinations but the connections would be interline and decidedly [i]not [i/d] coordinated and without joint fares. So I don’t think Midwest Express would be competitive if it was to bid for EAS markets. Most of the EAS cities within 150-250 miles of MKE have DL* or UA* flights they are happy with and to replace them with a MKE flight would be a step backwards for them.


Mainstee is operated by UJC right now, so could that be an option?
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
commpilot
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Mon May 20, 2019 11:53 pm

So what will these same day business markets be that desperately needs service again? MSN, ATW, GRB, CWA, DLH, ESC, SAW, IDW, RHI, MKG, GRR, FNT, LAN, PIT, CMH, RDU, DSM, OMA or SDF? None of these old Skyway/Midwest routes can survive without metropolis feeds from the actual major business cities in the country. Same day business traffic can not sustain an airline of any size, it's the leisure traffic volumes that hold routes in place. Everyone else covers the major daily business traffic markets.

I would love to read over what these guys have in their business plan that makes them think they can out smart everyone else in the airline industry. Using all RJs would cause major bleeding almost immediately if fares are lower than $500 R/T. Major corporate contracts will be needed to get any kind of funding to lease planes and crews. They will never get the capital to have their own planes and crews from the start. The last person I would trust is the last VP of PR for Midwest before they went under, he had time to help save the company and it didn't work. I am sure he got a nice payout though.
 
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MKE22
Posts: 185
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue May 21, 2019 5:22 am

commpilot wrote:
So what will these same day business markets be that desperately needs service again? MSN, ATW, GRB, CWA, DLH, ESC, SAW, IDW, RHI, MKG, GRR, FNT, LAN, PIT, CMH, RDU, DSM, OMA or SDF? None of these old Skyway/Midwest routes can survive without metropolis feeds from the actual major business cities in the country. Same day business traffic can not sustain an airline of any size, it's the leisure traffic volumes that hold routes in place. Everyone else covers the major daily business traffic markets.

I would love to read over what these guys have in their business plan that makes them think they can out smart everyone else in the airline industry. Using all RJs would cause major bleeding almost immediately if fares are lower than $500 R/T. Major corporate contracts will be needed to get any kind of funding to lease planes and crews. They will never get the capital to have their own planes and crews from the start. The last person I would trust is the last VP of PR for Midwest before they went under, he had time to help save the company and it didn't work. I am sure he got a nice payout though.


They could nose in on BOS, LGA/EWR, maybe RDU, PHL, BDL, something like that. There is still a sentiment with this airline, even after nearly ten years of not being in service.
 
speedbird52
Posts: 759
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 5:30 am

Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue May 21, 2019 5:38 am

I will say this: Out of every attempted relaunch of an airline, this one seems to have had the best marketing. I wish them luck.
 
Gulfstream500
Topic Author
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Re: Midwest Express Revival Plans, Office Space Leased

Tue May 21, 2019 7:55 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I will say this: Out of every attempted relaunch of an airline, this one seems to have had the best marketing. I wish them luck.


Defintely. I remember the early days of the new People Express, and thinking that it was going to fail.

Of all the airlines, I have the most nostalgia for AirTran and Midwest.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...

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