Rumor: NH starting TYO-YYZ Either Late 2019 or Early 2020 According to NH Reps At Star Wars Celebration in Chicago

YYZORD · Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:00 am

My friend went to the star wars celebration event in Chicago this weekend and toured around till he saw the booth that was hosted by NH. He talked to the reps at the booth for sometime and eventually mentioned that he was from Toronto. That's when not only one but two reps from the airline leaked information to him that NH has plans to launch YYZ from Tokyo but hasn't mentioned which Tokyo airport they will serve YYZ from. They also didn't mention which aircraft will be used for the route either as I assume these decisions are still in planning phases inside the airline. All they told him was that they will launch the route either in late 2019 or early 2020. My friend guessed that the new YYZ route is due to the increase of flights to both Tokyo airports for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Atm there is no official announcement from NH about this but we should be getting one soon and the fact this was information from reps that represent and work for NH, I could take their word any day because otherwise, that would be very unprofessional on their part to make up information about the airline they work for. Overall, I am very happy that NH is finally considering to launch YYZ very soon! It's been a long time coming and I guess it's a dream come true! I want to hear opinions from other aviation geeks on here about this leaked information along with any other leaked info other aviation geeks may have that would support this information I recently got today! Maybe also give your guesses on the aircraft that'll be used for this route along with the Tokyo airport that will serve YYZ.

Here are my guesses for this route:

Route: NRT-YYZ (This is because AC already serves YYZ-HND year round and NRT has more connections to other asian destinations, specifically china and southeast asia, also no non-stop flight to NRT from YYZ atm)

Aircraft: 777-300ER (This is due to YYZ being AC's biggest hub and having many connection options for North America from NRT to YYZ along with huge asian population, especially chinese population in Toronto that can increase pax on this route for the other way back to NRT)

eamondzhang · Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:27 pm

NRT-YYZ is likely if they ever launch Tokyo - Toronto and especially given the connections available; however not a chance in hell in 777-300ER given their config. You have to reliably fill in 60 F/C seats to a market that never supports much F class traffic to Asia while also commanding a fare premium in W/Y. As CX/AC/other carriers found out, Canada as a whole is more a lower-yield destination without too much premium traffic that can warrant a 77W service in ANA config. 787-9 is a far better fit for the route given the profile.

Michael

yowza · Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:00 pm

eamondzhang wrote:
not a chance in hell in 777-300ER given their config. You have to reliably fill in 60 F/C seats to a market that never supports much F class traffic

I hope you're wrong for my own selfish RTW trip planning purposes but I suspect you're 100% on the money.

YOWza

whywhyzee · Mon Apr 15, 2019 1:57 pm

789 seems like a given. AC still has a daily 77W with 40J to HND, so with ANA, that would be 100F/J to fill spread between the two, on an established trunk route sure, but not Tokyo, not yet at least.

x1234 · Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:01 pm

The minorities in Toronto which 70% are of Asian ancestry and of that 12.6% are South Asian and 11.1% are Chinese. Japanese are only 0.5% with Filipino at 5.7% and Southeast Asian at 1.5%.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph ... mographics
There is much more Japanese ancestry people in the USA versus Canada due to the easier VISA process due to the Japan-USA alliance versus Chinese.

Anyhow I agree, a B789 is more suitable for Toronto versus B77W because the premium demand in Canada is still concentrated on AC but if they get AC code-share they may pickup some premium traffic due to *A.

x1234 · Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:03 pm

Which reminds me if China demand is so high out of YYZ, why did CA (Air China) hand the route over to Hainan!? YYZ-PEK would be perfect route for CA.

whywhyzee · Mon Apr 15, 2019 2:14 pm

x1234 wrote:
Which reminds me if China demand is so high out of YYZ, why did CA (Air China) hand the route over to Hainan!? YYZ-PEK would be perfect route for CA.

Hainan has been on the route now for quite a long time, demand has changed a lot as Toronto has grown. When hainan began flying to Toronto, they were the only Chinese carrier of memory serves, and daily seats were probably a quarter of what you see today to China. The market has grown a ton in the past 5-10 years, and now we see 5x daily flights to China, where when hainan started, it was probably 1-2.

Remember, hindsight is 20/20, I imagine had CA known YYZ-PEK would grow to what it is today, I’m sure they would have picked up the route. At least they have AC and their JV to lean on, as well as their services to YVR and YUL.

yulexpansion · Mon Apr 15, 2019 3:49 pm

There are no guarantees AC will codeshare with NH on this rumoured service. Just because they're a *A partner doesn't mean much. If you look at other *A partners which double on AC at YYZ like TP and LO, there is no codeshare. On top of that NH & UA are in a JV, which leaves little room for AC to wiggle itself into. My bet is that if NH adds YYZ, they will cut code on AC 1/2 and AC will limit connectivity for NH in YYZ.

WildcatYXU · Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:22 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
There are no guarantees AC will codeshare with NH on this rumoured service. Just because they're a *A partner doesn't mean much. If you look at other *A partners which double on AC at YYZ like TP and LO, there is no codeshare.

That is not entirely true. AC has now it's code on some LO flights. For example, LO46 is now marketed as AC6762.

YYZORD · Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:06 pm

Your only seeing the city of Toronto demographics, here you gotta include the GTA aka suburbs cause YYZ serves the entire GTA region along w surrounding places like Kitchener/Waterloo, Barrie, Niagara Falls, and to an extent Buffalo, NY for those that want to fly international out of YYZ. Ontario alone has around 41,645 Japanese Canadians so you can imagine how many of them would be from the GTA. Markham for example is a big Japanese enclave in the GTA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Canadians

x1234 wrote:
The minorities in Toronto which 70% are of Asian ancestry and of that 12.6% are South Asian and 11.1% are Chinese. Japanese are only 0.5% with Filipino at 5.7% and Southeast Asian at 1.5%.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph ... mographics
There is much more Japanese ancestry people in the USA versus Canada due to the easier VISA process due to the Japan-USA alliance versus Chinese.

Anyhow I agree, a B789 is more suitable for Toronto versus B77W because the premium demand in Canada is still concentrated on AC but if they get AC code-share they may pickup some premium traffic due to *A.

hollywoodcory · Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:15 pm

Could be why AC has removed the YYZ legs on AC9/10 in S20. Currently only showing YYC-NRT-YYC.

YYZORD · Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:07 pm

Damnnn, where'd you get this info? Even more of a potential proof!

hollywoodcory wrote:
Could be why AC has removed the YYZ legs on AC9/10 in S20. Currently only showing YYC-NRT-YYC.

nname · Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:48 pm

Online flight schedule

YYZORD wrote:
Damnnn, where'd you get this info? Even more of a potential proof!

hollywoodcory wrote:
Could be why AC has removed the YYZ legs on AC9/10 in S20. Currently only showing YYC-NRT-YYC.

yulexpansion · Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:30 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:
There are no guarantees AC will codeshare with NH on this rumoured service. Just because they're a *A partner doesn't mean much. If you look at other *A partners which double on AC at YYZ like TP and LO, there is no codeshare.

That is not entirely true. AC has now it's code on some LO flights. For example, LO46 is now marketed as AC6762.

That's true actually. It's new to me. To my knowledge, AC did not code on LO flights to YYZ.

eamondzhang · Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:04 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
There are no guarantees AC will codeshare with NH on this rumoured service. Just because they're a *A partner doesn't mean much. If you look at other *A partners which double on AC at YYZ like TP and LO, there is no codeshare. On top of that NH & UA are in a JV, which leaves little room for AC to wiggle itself into. My bet is that if NH adds YYZ, they will cut code on AC 1/2 and AC will limit connectivity for NH in YYZ.

They do however have a JV with ANA between Canada and Japan.

Michael

YYZORD · Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:09 pm

It's not a JV yet, still a codeshare between the two thanks to Star Alliance but there is a huge change that AC will join the current JV between NH and UA making it a 3-way JV between north america and asia. AC and UA want their own transborder JV thanks to the recent WS and DL JV so it only makes sense. This will be similar to the 3-way JV LH has with AC and UA for North America to Europe except here it's NH and asia traffic. AC even expressed that they want more JV's after the success of their first one with CA and the soon implementation of the NZ and AC JV.

eamondzhang wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:
There are no guarantees AC will codeshare with NH on this rumoured service. Just because they're a *A partner doesn't mean much. If you look at other *A partners which double on AC at YYZ like TP and LO, there is no codeshare. On top of that NH & UA are in a JV, which leaves little room for AC to wiggle itself into. My bet is that if NH adds YYZ, they will cut code on AC 1/2 and AC will limit connectivity for NH in YYZ.

They do however have a JV with ANA between Canada and Japan.

Michael

longhauler · Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:47 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
Could be why AC has removed the YYZ legs on AC9/10 in S20. Currently only showing YYC-NRT-YYC.

I am curious where you are finding this? Airlines don’t normally publish schedules more than 330 days in advance.

eaa3 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:31 am

YYZORD wrote:
My friend went to the star wars celebration event in Chicago this weekend and toured around till he saw the booth that was hosted by NH. He talked to the reps at the booth for sometime and eventually mentioned that he was from Toronto. That's when not only one but two reps from the airline leaked information to him that NH has plans to launch YYZ from Tokyo but hasn't mentioned which Tokyo airport they will serve YYZ from. They also didn't mention which aircraft will be used for the route either as I assume these decisions are still in planning phases inside the airline. All they told him was that they will launch the route either in late 2019 or early 2020. My friend guessed that the new YYZ route is due to the increase of flights to both Tokyo airports for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Atm there is no official announcement from NH about this but we should be getting one soon and the fact this was information from reps that represent and work for NH, I could take their word any day because otherwise, that would be very unprofessional on their part to make up information about the airline they work for. Overall, I am very happy that NH is finally considering to launch YYZ very soon! It's been a long time coming and I guess it's a dream come true! I want to hear opinions from other aviation geeks on here about this leaked information along with any other leaked info other aviation geeks may have that would support this information I recently got today! Maybe also give your guesses on the aircraft that'll be used for this route along with the Tokyo airport that will serve YYZ.

Here are my guesses for this route:

Route: NRT-YYZ (This is because AC already serves YYZ-HND year round and NRT has more connections to other asian destinations, specifically china and southeast asia, also no non-stop flight to NRT from YYZ atm)

Aircraft: 777-300ER (This is due to YYZ being AC's biggest hub and having many connection options for North America from NRT to YYZ along with huge asian population, especially chinese population in Toronto that can increase pax on this route for the other way back to NRT)

You really shouldn’t be so specific as to how you get information like this. It can get people in trouble, as the company will know exactly where it came from. It’s more important to protect people’s job than for your credibility to be strong.

notconcerned · Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:40 am

YYZORD wrote:
Aircraft: 777-300ER (This is due to YYZ being AC's biggest hub and having many connection options for North America from NRT to YYZ along with huge asian population, especially chinese population in Toronto that can increase pax on this route for the other way back to NRT)

Considering that CX only flies 3-class 77W with no F to, arguably the strongest YYZ-Asia route (YYZ-HKG), highly doubt NH will drop 8F seats to the market with 77W. Only other carriers with F seats to Far East Asia are MU and KE.

Moreover, NH 77W are fairly low density with only 264 seats, as compared to a 789 with 246 seats.

SeaEagle8 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:08 am

eaa3 wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
My friend went to the star wars celebration event in Chicago this weekend and toured around till he saw the booth that was hosted by NH. He talked to the reps at the booth for sometime and eventually mentioned that he was from Toronto. That's when not only one but two reps from the airline leaked information to him that NH has plans to launch YYZ from Tokyo but hasn't mentioned which Tokyo airport they will serve YYZ from. They also didn't mention which aircraft will be used for the route either as I assume these decisions are still in planning phases inside the airline. All they told him was that they will launch the route either in late 2019 or early 2020. My friend guessed that the new YYZ route is due to the increase of flights to both Tokyo airports for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

Atm there is no official announcement from NH about this but we should be getting one soon and the fact this was information from reps that represent and work for NH, I could take their word any day because otherwise, that would be very unprofessional on their part to make up information about the airline they work for. Overall, I am very happy that NH is finally considering to launch YYZ very soon! It's been a long time coming and I guess it's a dream come true! I want to hear opinions from other aviation geeks on here about this leaked information along with any other leaked info other aviation geeks may have that would support this information I recently got today! Maybe also give your guesses on the aircraft that'll be used for this route along with the Tokyo airport that will serve YYZ.

Here are my guesses for this route:

Route: NRT-YYZ (This is because AC already serves YYZ-HND year round and NRT has more connections to other asian destinations, specifically china and southeast asia, also no non-stop flight to NRT from YYZ atm)

Aircraft: 777-300ER (This is due to YYZ being AC's biggest hub and having many connection options for North America from NRT to YYZ along with huge asian population, especially chinese population in Toronto that can increase pax on this route for the other way back to NRT)

You really shouldn’t be so specific as to how you get information like this. It can get people in trouble, as the company will know exactly where it came from. It’s more important to protect people’s job than for your credibility to be strong.

All he said was reps said they play to start YYZ. No real specifics, despite alleged startup dates. This is already hearsay. I don’t think anybody is getting into trouble here. This is no different to hearing rumours from pilots, flight attendants or other airline personnel. If every rumoured flight from every airline source happened route maps would look a lot different!

TTailedTiger · Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:17 am

Since YYZ is a STAR hub you would think they would have served it years ago. Why are NH and JAL so conservative with North America?

YYZORD · Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:30 am

It's probably to do with the limited slots at both NRT and HND so it's not NH or JL's fault for being conservative. If they had the freedom like for example airlines at ICN, HKG, and TPE, they'd be expanding very fast! Maybe when the new slots come in 2020, it'll show how conservative NH and JL really are.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Since YYZ is a STAR hub you would think they would have served it years ago. Why are NH and JAL so conservative with North America?

ITSTours · Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:51 am

YYZORD wrote:
It's probably to do with the limited slots at both NRT and HND so it's not NH or JL's fault for being conservative. If they had the freedom like for example airlines at ICN, HKG, and TPE, they'd be expanding very fast! Maybe when the new slots come in 2020, it'll show how conservative NH and JL really are.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Since YYZ is a STAR hub you would think they would have served it years ago. Why are NH and JAL so conservative with North America?

NRT is wide open. They can expand whenever they want.

hollywoodcory · Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:08 am

[twoid][/twoid]

longhauler wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
Could be why AC has removed the YYZ legs on AC9/10 in S20. Currently only showing YYC-NRT-YYC.

I am curious where you are finding this? Airlines don’t normally publish schedules more than 330 days in advance.

Their online schedule. Its viewable until early April 2020. AC9/10 currently is loaded as just YYC-NRT-YYC from 27MAR20.

eamondzhang · Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:19 am

YYZORD wrote:
It's probably to do with the limited slots at both NRT and HND so it's not NH or JL's fault for being conservative. If they had the freedom like for example airlines at ICN, HKG, and TPE, they'd be expanding very fast! Maybe when the new slots come in 2020, it'll show how conservative NH and JL really are.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Since YYZ is a STAR hub you would think they would have served it years ago. Why are NH and JAL so conservative with North America?

As others said, NRT is wide open in terms of traffic right (not saying about gate availability) and NH can start a flight tomorrow to YYZ if they want. It's more on the market and yield. With limited resources (on the availability of widebody fleet) NH is chasing more high-end traffic than KE ever will.

Also with AC serving the route there's no need unless the market is big enough.

Michael

YYZORD · Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:36 am

Well as mentioned before, AC isn't serving NRT non stop from YYZ at all so this should be the perfect opportunity for NH to launch this flight!

eamondzhang wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
It's probably to do with the limited slots at both NRT and HND so it's not NH or JL's fault for being conservative. If they had the freedom like for example airlines at ICN, HKG, and TPE, they'd be expanding very fast! Maybe when the new slots come in 2020, it'll show how conservative NH and JL really are.

TTailedTiger wrote:
Since YYZ is a STAR hub you would think they would have served it years ago. Why are NH and JAL so conservative with North America?

As others said, NRT is wide open in terms of traffic right (not saying about gate availability) and NH can start a flight tomorrow to YYZ if they want. It's more on the market and yield. With limited resources (on the availability of widebody fleet) NH is chasing more high-end traffic than KE ever will.

Also with AC serving the route there's no need unless the market is big enough.

Michael

cjg225 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:35 am

Am I the only one wondering why NH would be hosting a booth at Celebration....?

longhauler · Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:13 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
Their online schedule. Its viewable until early April 2020. AC9/10 currently is loaded as just YYC-NRT-YYC from 27MAR20.

I am guessing that because that is the edge of the time limit and beyond 330 days, odds are it is more of a function of what is loaded yet as opposed to what is planned more than a year away.

Summer 2020 767 operations are still in the planning stage, as the airplane should be retired from mainline by then. The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

DolphinAir747 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:25 pm

cjg225 wrote:
Am I the only one wondering why NH would be hosting a booth at Celebration....?

They have 3 planes painted in Star Wars liveries with Star Wars-themed interiors

yulexpansion · Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:56 pm

longhauler wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
Their online schedule. Its viewable until early April 2020. AC9/10 currently is loaded as just YYC-NRT-YYC from 27MAR20.

I am guessing that because that is the edge of the time limit and beyond 330 days, odds are it is more of a function of what is loaded yet as opposed to what is planned more than a year away.

Summer 2020 767 operations are still in the planning stage, as the airplane should be retired from mainline by then. The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

Or whether it is flown at all ...
Sounds to me like a better market for WS to serve. Just my two cents.

longhauler · Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:29 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
Or whether it is flown at all ...
Sounds to me like a better market for WS to serve. Just my two cents.

It's a tough call. The J market out of YYC to NRT (and most international destinations) is very strong for AC. So much that a few have mentioned that the J cabin of the 767 is too small. Premium cabin frequent flyers are very loyal, unlike the price conscious Y cabin. I can't imagine what WS could offer (as price is irrelevant) that would lure a passenger away.

WS does have a home town advantage. But ... remember, it has only been the past few years that WS actually carried more passengers out of YYC than AC!

AIRTRANSAT767 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:39 pm

Good news go toronto go

AIRTRANSAT767 · Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:50 pm

Good news go toronto go

WildcatYXU · Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:49 pm

longhauler wrote:
The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

The great circle distance from YYC to NRT is 4300 nm. Does a 230t A333 have the legs to do it? I know you guys were flying YVR-NRT in the past with the A333, but it is a bit shorter and the aircraft wasn't so densely configured.

yulexpansion · Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:15 pm

WildcatYXU wrote:
longhauler wrote:
The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

The great circle distance from YYC to NRT is 4300 nm. Does a 230t A333 have the legs to do it? I know you guys were flying YVR-NRT in the past with the A333, but it is a bit shorter and the aircraft wasn't so densely configured.

It's also the 3,600ft elevation in YYC. Tough to imagine AC flying a 333 in YYC. Easier to cycle the 789 with FRA and LHR.

yulexpansion · Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:19 pm

longhauler wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:
Or whether it is flown at all ...
Sounds to me like a better market for WS to serve. Just my two cents.

It's a tough call. The J market out of YYC to NRT (and most international destinations) is very strong for AC. So much that a few have mentioned that the J cabin of the 767 is too small. Premium cabin frequent flyers are very loyal, unlike the price conscious Y cabin. I can't imagine what WS could offer (as price is irrelevant) that would lure a passenger away.

WS does have a home town advantage. But ... remember, it has only been the past few years that WS actually carried more passengers out of YYC than AC!

One thing that J markets love is consistent service. The fact that AC downgraded the route to seasonal might speak to the importance it places on this apparently important business market. Apart from the new WS intercontinental routes in YYC, most other carriers have stayed put or reduced. HU (3w -> 2w), BA (became seasonal).

cjg225 · Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:21 am

DolphinAir747 wrote:
They have 3 planes painted in Star Wars liveries with Star Wars-themed interiors

Oh, right, that is NH...

Still, what would their booth even be about at a Star Wars convention? Do other businesses that otherwise have an extremely tangential relationship to Star Wars have booths there?

jfk777 · Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:47 pm

Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

YYZORD · Wed Apr 17, 2019 5:24 pm

There's a chance JAL could also come to YYZ, they're the next airline to most likely get a Canada slot at HND and they already fly YVR through NRT. They would not use that slot on YVR as NH flies NHD to YVR already so I'm sure they'd use it on YYZ instead with a 787-9 because which airline, especially japanese ones would waste a valuable HND slot?

jfk777 wrote:
Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

longhauler · Sat Sep 07, 2019 11:15 pm

longhauler wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
Their online schedule. Its viewable until early April 2020. AC9/10 currently is loaded as just YYC-NRT-YYC from 27MAR20.

I am guessing that because that is the edge of the time limit and beyond 330 days, odds are it is more of a function of what is loaded yet as opposed to what is planned more than a year away.

Summer 2020 767 operations are still in the planning stage, as the airplane should be retired from mainline by then. The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

As I had thought, the full schedule is now loaded.

AC 009/010 will operate YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ daily across the summer 2020. It is still showing as 767-300 equipment.

Thenoflyzone · Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:02 pm

YYZORD wrote:
There's a chance JAL could also come to YYZ, they're the next airline to most likely get a Canada slot at HND and they already fly YVR through NRT. They would not use that slot on YVR as NH flies NHD to YVR already so I'm sure they'd use it on YYZ instead with a 787-9 because which airline, especially japanese ones would waste a valuable HND slot?

If NH launches YYZ, the chances of JL doing the same would be virtually zero!
Even if NH doesn’t launch, I don’t see JL doing it.

WildcatYXU wrote:
longhauler wrote:
The big wild card would be whether YYZ-YYC-NRT-YYC-YYZ is flown by a 787 or A330.

The great circle distance from YYC to NRT is 4300 nm. Does a 230t A333 have the legs to do it? I know you guys were flying YVR-NRT in the past with the A333, but it is a bit shorter and the aircraft wasn't so densely configured.

A 230t A333 has a still air range of roughly 5000nm with passengers and bags. (70k lb payload)
And let’s not forget some of the ex. TP A330s AC has received are 233t and 235t. A 233t bird can do around 5,500nm.

As for YYC’s altitude, an A333 with RR engines should be able to lift ~ 222t out of YYC in ISA + 15C conditions. That’s pretty close to MTOW. Add some headwind and colder temps on takeoff, and it should be darn close to MTOW. So YYC-NRT should be doable, especially in one of these higher weight variants.

This being said, a B788 is a much better fit.

United787 · Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:12 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

I had to do a double take and check ANA's route map... I couldn't believe that NH didn't already fly to Toronto! Even more shocked that JL and NH have never have. What am I missing here?

LAXdude1023 · Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:33 pm

United787 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

I had to do a double take and check ANA's route map... I couldn't believe that NH didn't already fly to Toronto! Even more shocked that JL and NH have never have. What am I missing here?

Whats to miss? Its a big city, but that doesnt mean it generates enough traffic for multiple carriers. The economic ties between the US and Japan are much stronger than Canada. Canada's business ties in Asia are much more centered around Hong Kong.

YYZORD · Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:43 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
United787 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

I had to do a double take and check ANA's route map... I couldn't believe that NH didn't already fly to Toronto! Even more shocked that JL and NH have never have. What am I missing here?

Whats to miss? Its a big city, but that doesnt mean it generates enough traffic for multiple carriers. The economic ties between the US and Japan are much stronger than Canada. Canada's business ties in Asia are much more centered around Hong Kong.

Can't an NH flight to YYZ market be not only for the Canadian market but the US market too? Adding extra US pax to the YYZ route should allow more demand to the route and preclearance is much preferred when compared to clearing US customs at US airports. No baggage re-check in at YYZ if transiting to the US and AC has been marketing their hubs as a major gateway to the US so I can see it can work cause NH and AC are partners. I guessed from the beginning that if NH added YYZ, it would be from NRT cause more international flights to rest of asia and all HND slots were allocated.

notconcerned · Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:53 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Can't an NH flight to YYZ market not only the Canadian market but US market too? Adding extra US pax to the YYZ route should allow more demand to the route and preclearance is much preferred when compared to clearing US customs at US airports. AC has been marketing their hubs as a major gateway to the US so I can see it can work cause NH and AC are partners. I guessed from the beginning that if NH added YYZ, it would be from NRT cause more international flights to rest of asia.

NH and AC don't have a TPAC JV, there's no incentive for NH to route passengers through YYZ. Any ex-Japan passenger will either have to connect on NH/UA or take AC direct flight to YYZ. Being partners also doesn't mean they need to fly there, NH is notably missing a TYO-ZRH route as well. It seems like NH is more willing to test new markets (such as PER) and concede YYZ market to AC.

Thenoflyzone · Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:55 pm

YYZORD wrote:

Can't an NH flight to YYZ market be not only for the Canadian market but the US market too? Adding extra US pax to the YYZ route should allow more demand to the route and preclearance is much preferred when compared to clearing US customs at US airports. No baggage re-check in at YYZ if transiting to the US and AC has been marketing their hubs as a major gateway to the US so I can see it can work cause NH and AC are partners. I guessed from the beginning that if NH added YYZ, it would be from NRT cause more international flights to rest of asia and all HND slots were allocated.

that’s assuming AC cooperates with NH and let’s NH codeshare on AC’s US network out of YYZ.

Right now, it is not in AC’s interest for NH to launch Tokyo-YYZ, as both carriers don’t yet have a JV. In essence, even if they are both in Star A, they are still competing against each other until a joint venture gets approved.

All this being said, it is more than plausible that AC and NH are cooperating and trying to negotiate a JV and a NH NRT-YYZ, in that regard, would make perfect sense and would complement nicely AC’s own HND-YYZ.

Thenoflyzone · Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:07 pm

x1234 wrote:
Which reminds me if China demand is so high out of YYZ, why did CA (Air China) hand the route over to Hainan!? YYZ-PEK would be perfect route for CA.

AC has been serving YYZ-PEK non stop since 2005. It didn’t make much sense for CA to launch its own service back then, as AC had the market covered.

When HU launched YYZ-PEK in 2010, due to China’s 1 route 1 airline policy, CA was unable to launch PEK-YYZ.

That policy has since been relaxed, albeit with some restrictions. In fact, to my knowledge, no Chinese airline has yet taken advantage of it here in North America.

Now that AC-CA have a JV, it makes little sense for CA to launch YYZ-PEK. (especially today, with Canada-China relations at an all time low)

YYZORD · Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:39 pm

Thenoflyzone wrote:
YYZORD wrote:

Can't an NH flight to YYZ market be not only for the Canadian market but the US market too? Adding extra US pax to the YYZ route should allow more demand to the route and preclearance is much preferred when compared to clearing US customs at US airports. No baggage re-check in at YYZ if transiting to the US and AC has been marketing their hubs as a major gateway to the US so I can see it can work cause NH and AC are partners. I guessed from the beginning that if NH added YYZ, it would be from NRT cause more international flights to rest of asia and all HND slots were allocated.

that’s assuming AC cooperates with NH and let’s NH codeshare on AC’s US network out of YYZ.

Right now, it is not in AC’s interest for NH to launch Tokyo-YYZ, as both carriers don’t yet have a JV. In essence, even if they are both in Star A, they are still competing against each other until a joint venture gets approved.

All this being said, it is more than plausible that AC and NH are cooperating and trying to negotiate a JV and a NH NRT-YYZ, in that regard, would make perfect sense and would complement nicely AC’s own HND-YYZ.

AC currently allows NH to codeshare on their US flights out of YVR from NH's HND-YVR route. I tried PDX-HND and PDX-YVR is on AC while YVR-HND is on NH. I would assume this would be the same case if NH launched a NRT-YYZ route. Then again I agree with the JV point you mentioned. I have a feeling that NH and AC are in talks for a JV and maybe making it a tri-JV with UA. AC already plans for a JV with NZ and currently has a JV with the LH group like UA. The only other airline that AC doesn't have a JV with which UA has is NH. Otherwise every other JV partner AC plans to have a JV with or currently has a JV with has a JV with UA except for CA.

flyyul · Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:46 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Thenoflyzone wrote:
YYZORD wrote:

Can't an NH flight to YYZ market be not only for the Canadian market but the US market too? Adding extra US pax to the YYZ route should allow more demand to the route and preclearance is much preferred when compared to clearing US customs at US airports. No baggage re-check in at YYZ if transiting to the US and AC has been marketing their hubs as a major gateway to the US so I can see it can work cause NH and AC are partners. I guessed from the beginning that if NH added YYZ, it would be from NRT cause more international flights to rest of asia and all HND slots were allocated.

that’s assuming AC cooperates with NH and let’s NH codeshare on AC’s US network out of YYZ.

Right now, it is not in AC’s interest for NH to launch Tokyo-YYZ, as both carriers don’t yet have a JV. In essence, even if they are both in Star A, they are still competing against each other until a joint venture gets approved.

All this being said, it is more than plausible that AC and NH are cooperating and trying to negotiate a JV and a NH NRT-YYZ, in that regard, would make perfect sense and would complement nicely AC’s own HND-YYZ.

AC currently allows NH to codeshare on their US flights out of YVR from NH's HND-YVR route. I tried PDX-HND and PDX-YVR is on AC while YVR-HND is on NH. I would assume this would be the same case if NH launched a NRT-YYZ route. Then again I agree with the JV point you mentioned. I have a feeling that NH and AC are in talks for a JV and maybe making it a tri-JV with UA. AC already plans for a JV with NZ and currently has a JV with the LH group like UA. The only other airline that AC doesn't have a JV with which UA has is NH. Otherwise every other JV partner AC plans to have a JV with or currently has a JV with has a JV with UA except for CA.

I know this will deeply disappoint - but ANA has no interest in expanding its presence to Canada. We should not expect an NH HND/NRT-YTO service in the near/medium-term.

YYZLGA · Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:51 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
United787 wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Its about time, no Japanese airline has ever flown YYZ to Tokyo. JAL should have been all over this 30 years ago. Now ANA is flying it, finally. There is demand Air Canada uses a 77W and those AC 777 have many seats.

I had to do a double take and check ANA's route map... I couldn't believe that NH didn't already fly to Toronto! Even more shocked that JL and NH have never have. What am I missing here?

Whats to miss? Its a big city, but that doesnt mean it generates enough traffic for multiple carriers. The economic ties between the US and Japan are much stronger than Canada. Canada's business ties in Asia are much more centered around Hong Kong.

I'm not sure that's true. There are three major Japanese-owned auto assembly plants within 90 minutes drive of YYZ, plus assorted associated Japanese-owned parts plants. That alone is an important business connection. I think AC's strong position in the market probably played a bigger role.

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