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aemoreira1981
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:41 pm

On SG, I have to wonder if they can convert part of their MAX 8 order to the MAX 10, as they could use a Y228 plane to DXB and fill it, owing to bilateral issues.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 4:55 pm

edealinfo wrote:
80% Write Off Required for Etihad Bid

I think this is going to be tricky, politically. Banks are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they don't write off 80%, likely no bids and they could lose 100% and evoke Jet employees' wrath. If they do write off 80%, there would be CBI inquiry, legal cases, media reports on a sell out to foreigners, etc.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 34066.html

EY's bid is, per my calculations, only 50% higher than the debt they guaranteed (I assume EY would still be on the hook, so in reality, their bid isn't 2,252 crore, but also debt forgiveness it 3,692 crore effective bid).

This will get noisy. I doubt any bid will be over 5,000 crore. The question is if there is a higher bid. That higher bid must pay back more of the debt EY guaranteed though.

Would the new Jet get back the wet leased 737s and slots? If so, SpiceJet looks less brilliant.

Lightsaber
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vadodara
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 5:09 pm

Regardless of the outcome, EY is unlikely to get all of 9W’s slots. They may not want to either.

From EY’s perspective, a rump 9W that mostly runs a feeder service to Abu Dhabi with some limited point 2 point service (collection/redemption for FF points) would suffice.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:00 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
80% Write Off Required for Etihad Bid

I think this is going to be tricky, politically. Banks are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they don't write off 80%, likely no bids and they could lose 100% and evoke Jet employees' wrath. If they do write off 80%, there would be CBI inquiry, legal cases, media reports on a sell out to foreigners, etc.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 34066.html

EY's bid is, per my calculations, only 50% higher than the debt they guaranteed (I assume EY would still be on the hook, so in reality, their bid isn't 2,252 crore, but also debt forgiveness it 3,692 crore effective bid).

This will get noisy. I doubt any bid will be over 5,000 crore. The question is if there is a higher bid. That higher bid must pay back more of the debt EY guaranteed though.

Would the new Jet get back the wet leased 737s and slots? If so, SpiceJet looks less brilliant.

Lightsaber


To be honest, I am surprised EY bid that much. Let's see what others bid, but I think you are right about having to pay off EY's debt as well. On the political ramifications, I think this has been pretty public / open bid. I don't get the sense from the news reports that the press is rooting for Jet to permanently close. So let's see. You could argue that Jet basically had to shut down in order for the GOI to right off the debt. If they would have saved Jet before the shut down, then people would have said it was an inside job / handout. Now it looks like inevitable - meaning either write off 80% or lose everything. IN a way it is really stupid the way it had to be handled. I think Jet will get back almost all of their slots. Which is legally correct and just. SpiceJet and the others knew these slots were temporary. I also think they will get back a good portion of their old leased planes. That said, I think Jet should focus on BOM and have a min presence in DEL and BLR. It can leave all other intercity flying to others. So that will be the win for the other airlines (meaning Jet not competing on say CCU-MAA flights). BOM slots are not the end all be all - meaning if Spice has to give back the BOM slots but shakes off Jet in other markets, they can take a big win.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:05 pm

This link projects India needs more aircraft in a year than I do (210):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 242_1.html


I would love to be proven pessimistic. If true, the fare spike from Jet's grounding will last longer than I anticipated.

My estimate is very back of the envelope. But my opinion is this estimate of 210 aircraft is the absolute top off my error bars. As I posted earlier, 169 aircraft planned for intro in 2019 plus Jet version 2, minus any Jet aircraft returned to Jet version 2.

If 210 aircraft is needed (I estimate 180, give or take), to there is no way for supply to meet demand until late 2020 (maybe not even then).

I don't know. But this, if true, increases the chance of a Jet relaunch.

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CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:15 pm

As we now turn to looking at the bids for Jet and how they can resume, my big question is - which of Jet's routes met operating costs? Forget about Jet making a profit, but what routes can the new buyer fly without losing their shirt and being back in this same spot a year from now? Anyone have an idea?
 
DLPMMM
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
80% Write Off Required for Etihad Bid

I think this is going to be tricky, politically. Banks are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they don't write off 80%, likely no bids and they could lose 100% and evoke Jet employees' wrath. If they do write off 80%, there would be CBI inquiry, legal cases, media reports on a sell out to foreigners, etc.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 34066.html

EY's bid is, per my calculations, only 50% higher than the debt they guaranteed (I assume EY would still be on the hook, so in reality, their bid isn't 2,252 crore, but also debt forgiveness it 3,692 crore effective bid).

This will get noisy. I doubt any bid will be over 5,000 crore. The question is if there is a higher bid. That higher bid must pay back more of the debt EY guaranteed though.

Would the new Jet get back the wet leased 737s and slots? If so, SpiceJet looks less brilliant.

Lightsaber


I didn't see where any number was givejn for an EY bid, unless you think they will just throw in their debt guarantee as equity. Even then, they would not get 100% of the new Jet and Jet would still have way to much debt for it's new size.

I don't think there will be any bid even if the banks take an 80% haircut.

The market will take care of any market distortions caused by Jet's demise faster than the Government will ever be able to do anything.

The Parrot is dead, and they should just bury it.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:36 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
On SG, I have to wonder if they can convert part of their MAX 8 order to the MAX 10, as they could use a Y228 plane to DXB and fill it, owing to bilateral issues.


Yes such an option exists with all NB orders with Boeing and Airbus for an upsize fee of $12-15m per aircraft unit.

Not only SG but 6E should also now seriously contemplate converting more A320Neos to the larger A321Neos ASAP.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:44 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
On SG, I have to wonder if they can convert part of their MAX 8 order to the MAX 10, as they could use a Y228 plane to DXB and fill it, owing to bilateral issues.

Except that the India-Dubai Bi-laterals impose a cap on total weekly seats, not flight frequencies.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:11 pm

Another question: why didn’t SG express interest in taking up the two 739(ER) frames leased to 9W by GECAS, rather than the base B739s?
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon Apr 22, 2019 8:15 pm

On EY bidding, it might be one last hope to not be a boutique airline and still be a competing hub.

With the new Istanbul open, I don't know how. While ISL won't see much Indian traffic, it is so well located that it will suck the air out of other connections.

If Jet had survived, the competition was only getting worse.

trinidadeG wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
On SG, I have to wonder if they can convert part of their MAX 8 order to the MAX 10, as they could use a Y228 plane to DXB and fill it, owing to bilateral issues.

Except that the India-Dubai Bi-laterals impose a cap on total weekly seats, not flight frequencies.

Good slots are precious. It is better to give up s badly timed DXB slot and move seats to the higher yield times.

Jet had great BOM-DXB and DEL-DXB times. Not all, but enough. In the long run, India to DXB is far more valuable than AUH or DOH.

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CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:04 am

lightsaber wrote:
On EY bidding, it might be one last hope to not be a boutique airline and still be a competing hub.

With the new Istanbul open, I don't know how. While ISL won't see much Indian traffic, it is so well located that it will suck the air out of other connections.

If Jet had survived, the competition was only getting worse.

trinidadeG wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
On SG, I have to wonder if they can convert part of their MAX 8 order to the MAX 10, as they could use a Y228 plane to DXB and fill it, owing to bilateral issues.

Except that the India-Dubai Bi-laterals impose a cap on total weekly seats, not flight frequencies.

Good slots are precious. It is better to give up s badly timed DXB slot and move seats to the higher yield times.

Jet had great BOM-DXB and DEL-DXB times. Not all, but enough. In the long run, India to DXB is far more valuable than AUH or DOH.

Lightsaber


I think EY absolutely needs Jet. As I’ve said before, their mistake was thinking they would force people to connect through AUH. They should truely partner with Jet. Offer nonstops from Indian and a AUH connecting option to give timing options and more citiy pairs. Let’s see what happens. I have low confidence in this full sale process. Jet employees must be hoping...
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:58 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
As we now turn to looking at the bids for Jet and how they can resume, my big question is - which of Jet's routes met operating costs? Forget about Jet making a profit, but what routes can the new buyer fly without losing their shirt and being back in this same spot a year from now? Anyone have an idea?


My guess would be the AMS routes. But it was too little too late.

Perhaps Dubey extended 9W’s agony by several months. What a shame.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:36 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
On EY bidding, it might be one last hope to not be a boutique airline and still be a competing hub.

With the new Istanbul open, I don't know how. While ISL won't see much Indian traffic, it is so well located that it will suck the air out of other connections.

If Jet had survived, the competition was only getting worse.

trinidadeG wrote:
Except that the India-Dubai Bi-laterals impose a cap on total weekly seats, not flight frequencies.

Good slots are precious. It is better to give up s badly timed DXB slot and move seats to the higher yield times.

Jet had great BOM-DXB and DEL-DXB times. Not all, but enough. In the long run, India to DXB is far more valuable than AUH or DOH.

Lightsaber


I think EY absolutely needs Jet. As I’ve said before, their mistake was thinking they would force people to connect through AUH. They should truely partner with Jet. Offer nonstops from Indian and a AUH connecting option to give timing options and more citiy pairs. Let’s see what happens. I have low confidence in this full sale process. Jet employees must be hoping...

Your ideas of non-stop and connections is tougher with EU curfews.

I was referring to 9W slots for DXB. Yield is higher there.

EY made their bid. They might be outbid or the banks might refuse. I think EY is doomed to be a boutique airline as like you, I doubt a sale. It is practically impossible to sell Jet without EY
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:58 am

Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:56 am

Apologies if this has already been posted

https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/ ... 1.63480364

Emirates and Spicejet have signed a code-share deal.

"For Emirates, the codeshare with SpiceJet will provide it with an additional 67 weekly connections between Dubai and six of what it described as “fast growing destinations in India.”

These include Amritsar, Jaipur, Pune, Mangalore, Madurai, and Calicut."

Very interesting move, as SG seems poised to gain the lion's share from the 9W collapse.

Worth reminding everyone that although EK's rival EY had been in partnership for years with 9W, EK pointedly had avoided making a similar tie-up with an Indian carrier, preferring to do all of the flying themselves (along with sister airline flydubai).
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:45 am

unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


Jet share is up almost 10% on the stockmarket today, reportedly on good load factor in March!!
Pretty confusing and surprising considering that 9W has ceased its operations and apparently no bids are coming in.
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:10 am

Asiaflyer wrote:

Jet share is up almost 10% on the stockmarket today, reportedly on good load factor in March!!
Pretty confusing and surprising considering that 9W has ceased its operations and apparently no bids are coming in.

Either there are a lot of idiots among the Indian investment community or someone is playing the market to offload their own stake.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:57 am

Asiaflyer wrote:
unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


Jet share is up almost 10% on the stockmarket today, reportedly on good load factor in March!!
Pretty confusing and surprising considering that 9W has ceased its operations and apparently no bids are coming in.

The 95 to 100 percent occupancy is probably factually true but this is only because they cancelled most of their flights meaning that most of the passengers on the cancelled flights were moved to the ones still operating at that time. Context is everything.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:18 pm

Since there are no bidders for the EOI, the ONLY solution on the table is the hypothesized Reliance takeover of a merged Jet and Air India. The merger is supported by Subramanium Swamy.
 
zuckie13
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:48 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Since there are no bidders for the EOI, the ONLY solution on the table is the hypothesized Reliance takeover of a merged Jet and Air India. The merger is supported by Subramanium Swamy.


Well, the other solution is to simply let it die in peace.
Companies end. It has happened before.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:11 pm

unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


I don't understand. I thought EY was bidding but was demanding an 80% cut in debt load. Is EY trying to publicly negotiate terms? I thought the banks said that bids could propose debt write-offs. Anyone know what is going on?

Btw family friends have started posting about Jet (yes they are all BOM based). Two of the three posts all mention that the BJP is tied to another airline. They don't mention the airline, but I think we all know which one they are referring to. Was sort of surprised to see them post this on FB. They are not aviation geeks nor political. Has this connection become general knowledge? For what its worth, all three lamented Jet's demise. They all seem to have flown Jet as their primary airline. Two were BOM-LHR big time fliers. Jet's 3X BOM-LHR will be missed.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:37 pm

EY's bid has been rumor. Will or won't it happen. This is like the Air India privatization, very opaque.

The competition is going to ensure Jet phase 2 isn't viable. The quantity of aircraft going to SpiceJet (50, albeit, apparently 22 wet leased keeping aircraft and slots with Jet), GoAir (10), Indigo (1 per week, mostly A321), Vistara, and AirAsia.

Better numbers on Jet pilots:

https://m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/j ... 39699.html

410 left, 1529 remain
Still a viable number. Actually, most would have to be laid off to get the costs down.

Jet has forced too many customers to try the competition.


Lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:37 pm

EY's bid has been rumor. Will or won't it happen. This is like the Air India privatization, very opaque.

The competition is going to ensure Jet phase 2 isn't viable. The quantity of aircraft going to SpiceJet (50, albeit, apparently 22 wet leased keeping aircraft and slots with Jet), GoAir (10), Indigo (1 per week, mostly A321), Vistara, and AirAsia.

Better numbers on Jet pilots:

https://m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/j ... 39699.html

410 left, 1529 remain
Still a viable number. Actually, most would have to be laid off to get the costs down.

Jet has forced too many customers to try the competition.


Lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 1:52 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


I don't understand. I thought EY was bidding but was demanding an 80% cut in debt load. Is EY trying to publicly negotiate terms? I thought the banks said that bids could propose debt write-offs. Anyone know what is going on?

Btw family friends have started posting about Jet (yes they are all BOM based). Two of the three posts all mention that the BJP is tied to another airline. They don't mention the airline, but I think we all know which one they are referring to. Was sort of surprised to see them post this on FB. They are not aviation geeks nor political. Has this connection become general knowledge? For what its worth, all three lamented Jet's demise. They all seem to have flown Jet as their primary airline. Two were BOM-LHR big time fliers. Jet's 3X BOM-LHR will be missed.


That airline is a an obvious known one, and the 9W employees even protested against that airline benefiting the most from 9W's closure.
Just today, saw in an exclusive interview of Jet CEO, first time since their closure, and he mentions that airline receiving benefits from the current govt. when they were in distress. https://mobile.twitter.com/ETNOWlive/status/1120622131266482176
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:58 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


Jet share is up almost 10% on the stockmarket today, reportedly on good load factor in March!!
Pretty confusing and surprising considering that 9W has ceased its operations and apparently no bids are coming in.


Reminds me of an old black humor joke from a pathologist, who admits a deceased patient's body to his department, and looks through the hospital records of the patient. When he reads that right up to the moment of death, the pulse was good and even, he exclaims something about how good it is for people to keep themselves healthy and have a good heartbeat in life.
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CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:27 pm

lightsaber wrote:
EY's bid has been rumor. Will or won't it happen. This is like the Air India privatization, very opaque.

The competition is going to ensure Jet phase 2 isn't viable. The quantity of aircraft going to SpiceJet (50, albeit, apparently 22 wet leased keeping aircraft and slots with Jet), GoAir (10), Indigo (1 per week, mostly A321), Vistara, and AirAsia.

Better numbers on Jet pilots:

https://m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/j ... 39699.html

410 left, 1529 remain
Still a viable number. Actually, most would have to be laid off to get the costs down.

Jet has forced too many customers to try the competition.


Lightsaber


Well the article didn't present the EY news as a rumor. So is the first article wrong or the second? I mean you can't even trust the media to just report the facts on something like this. So sad.
 
DLPMMM
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:52 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Well the article didn't present the EY news as a rumor. So is the first article wrong or the second? I mean you can't even trust the media to just report the facts on something like this. So sad.


The article I read only said that EY requires the banks to take an 80% haircut to consider even making a bid, not that they have made a bid...it would be suprising to bid before the bid due date as I would not expect alot of confidentiality given all the leaks to the media in this whole affair.

I do not expect any realistic bids anyway for the remnants.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 5:38 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EY's bid has been rumor. Will or won't it happen. This is like the Air India privatization, very opaque.

The competition is going to ensure Jet phase 2 isn't viable. The quantity of aircraft going to SpiceJet (50, albeit, apparently 22 wet leased keeping aircraft and slots with Jet), GoAir (10), Indigo (1 per week, mostly A321), Vistara, and AirAsia.

Better numbers on Jet pilots:

https://m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/j ... 39699.html

410 left, 1529 remain
Still a viable number. Actually, most would have to be laid off to get the costs down.

Jet has forced too many customers to try the competition.


Lightsaber


Well the article didn't present the EY news as a rumor. So is the first article wrong or the second? I mean you can't even trust the media to just report the facts on something like this. So sad.


The truth is that any bid for this airline has been nothing more than a rumor. EOI is exactly what it sounds like. I'm interested. All that means is you want to be kept in the loop in case you bid. It's not even a minute form of commitment.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:13 pm

zuckie13 wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
EY's bid has been rumor. Will or won't it happen. This is like the Air India privatization, very opaque.

The competition is going to ensure Jet phase 2 isn't viable. The quantity of aircraft going to SpiceJet (50, albeit, apparently 22 wet leased keeping aircraft and slots with Jet), GoAir (10), Indigo (1 per week, mostly A321), Vistara, and AirAsia.

Better numbers on Jet pilots:

https://m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/j ... 39699.html

410 left, 1529 remain
Still a viable number. Actually, most would have to be laid off to get the costs down.

Jet has forced too many customers to try the competition.


Lightsaber


Well the article didn't present the EY news as a rumor. So is the first article wrong or the second? I mean you can't even trust the media to just report the facts on something like this. So sad.


The truth is that any bid for this airline has been nothing more than a rumor. EOI is exactly what it sounds like. I'm interested. All that means is you want to be kept in the loop in case you bid. It's not even a minute form of commitment.


I took the prior link as rumor in how it was worded. In the past EY made conditions the bank rejected, but would have been better off accepting. It wouldn't surprise me if the minimum bid criteria is absurd.

Goyal really managed Jet into the ground (recall he held the reigns past the point of no return, when 2/3rds of the aircraft were grounded).

Lightsaber
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CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:24 pm

The aviation ministry came out a few hours ago and reiterated that the grant of Jet slots to other airlines are only on a temporary basis. The ministry said the slots will be returned if the airline resumes operations. See link below.

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Indus ... 922552.ece

So it looks like the core value of Jet is still in place. The question now is will the banks take a huge haircut. I can't see why the banks won't. Something is better than nothing. But India is also India. I feel like EY leaked that article on the 80% haircut to allow the press et all to shoot it down etc. The followup article that no one will bid on Jet only gives the banks even more air cover to take a haircut on the debt. Also spice taking Jet aircraft on wet leases also helps Jet get back up and running - airlines stay in India, in Jet layout with Jet crew working (right?).
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:12 pm

A little sanity. Bidders are still doing due diligence. Final bids will be submitted later:

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ec ... 2.ece/amp/

My take:
1. If airlines using temporary slots do not have a strategy to keep them, they are fools.
2. No bids yet, no withdrawals from process.
3. There needs to be a strategy to keep some pilots and aircraft.
4. Jet phase 2 needs severe cost cutting.
5. Wet leased aircraft are at extreame risk of return (with slots) to Jet. That is 22 aircraft per the previous discussion. All others are SpiceJet only.

What Jet is losing is customer loyalty.

But latest news gives some hope of a revival. The link is SpiceJet wet leasing. That puts aircraft in stasis effectively for Jet.

That said, untangling this mess will be facinating.

Lightsaber
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Phosphorus
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 7:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
5. Wet leased aircraft are at extreame risk of return (with slots) to Jet. That is 22 aircraft per the previous discussion. All others are SpiceJet only.

Unless leases are paid (and they seem to be in arrears), isn't the risk of return of these frames to the lessors a larger threat? Than this theoretical option of Titanic, pardon, Jet Airways, resurfacing suddenly, and gathering speed under its own steam?
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 8:39 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
The aviation ministry came out a few hours ago and reiterated that the grant of Jet slots to other airlines are only on a temporary basis.


MoCA is just creating paperwork so they won't get blamed for killing Jet to feed SpiceJet. The only thing matters and the public would never know is what Modi wants. If there were primitive (non-verbal, non-written) instructions to end Jet, no one can save it, the entire country will work to achieve that outcome.

SBI probably spent 100 Crores over the last eight months hiring all four major auditors and every aviation consultancy in India and UK just to create support paperwork why it didn't give 400 Cr. The blame will be spread so thin and wide, no one can pin blame on one person or entity.

India at its best.
 
bennett123
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:16 pm

Sounds to me that by making the slots temporary strengthens NG’s position. However, it risks discouraging other airlines with the resultant damage to Indian connectivity.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:29 pm

First 777 deregistration request made:
https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 042_1.html

How many aren't encumbered by forign loans?

Lightsaber
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:31 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
5. Wet leased aircraft are at extreame risk of return (with slots) to Jet. That is 22 aircraft per the previous discussion. All others are SpiceJet only.

Unless leases are paid (and they seem to be in arrears), isn't the risk of return of these frames to the lessors a larger threat? Than this theoretical option of Titanic, pardon, Jet Airways, resurfacing suddenly, and gathering speed under its own steam?

Leasors for 22 738s are playing along with SpiceJet. But what are the terms? These could be wetlease to dry lease. Oh, this is so complicated!

Lightsaber
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AngMoh
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue Apr 23, 2019 9:54 pm

Asiaflyer wrote:
unrave wrote:
Both Business Standard and Economic Times are reporting that there are no bids forthcoming for Jet. It will be curtains pretty soon
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html


Jet share is up almost 10% on the stockmarket today, reportedly on good load factor in March!!
Pretty confusing and surprising considering that 9W has ceased its operations and apparently no bids are coming in.


In a normal world, there would have been a trading halt on Jet stock a long time ago. Why is trading Jet stock still possible in India? A stock market listed airline has suspended operations and the financial regulator thinks that trading should go on as usual?
727 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 742 743 744 752 753 762 772 77E 773 77W 788 A300 A310 A319 A320 A321 A332 A333 A343 A345 A346 A359 A35K A388 DC-9 DC-10 MD11 MD81 MD82 MD87 F70 ERJ145 E170 E175 E190 E195 ATR72 Q400 CRJ200 CRJ700 CRJ900 BAE146 RJ85
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:07 am

According to the article in the link below, Jet's "net fleet" is still 65 - 75 planes.

https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2019/ ... rways.html
 
pune
Posts: 113
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:20 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxSl9kNF47E

This was on yesterday news. From it two things are clear. Nothing will be known till May 10. The CEO is trying to spin a positive story about it but as shared above, it is very much possible that the airline would be laid to rest. He may have been under orders not to ruffle the feathers too much as elections are on and BJP will try to see that the fallout can be blamed as to not happening on their watch. In the end, nobody to blame except Mr. Goyal.
 
moa999
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:21 am

AngMoh wrote:

In a normal world, there would have been a trading halt on Jet stock a long time ago. Why is trading Jet stock still possible in India? A stock market listed airline has suspended operations and the financial regulator thinks that trading should go on as usual?


All depends on the market rules.

Obviously various discussions are going on but there is no guarantee of anything. I'd think the market is as well informed as anyone

Anyone can take a guess at what will happen and what a future Jet will look like and guess at a value.

But you'd literally be gambling rather than investing
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 1:28 am

lightsaber wrote:
A little sanity. Bidders are still doing due diligence. Final bids will be submitted later:

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ec ... 2.ece/amp/

My take:
1. If airlines using temporary slots do not have a strategy to keep them, they are fools.
2. No bids yet, no withdrawals from process.
3. There needs to be a strategy to keep some pilots and aircraft.
4. Jet phase 2 needs severe cost cutting.
5. Wet leased aircraft are at extreame risk of return (with slots) to Jet. That is 22 aircraft per the previous discussion. All others are SpiceJet only.

What Jet is losing is customer loyalty.

But latest news gives some hope of a revival. The link is SpiceJet wet leasing. That puts aircraft in stasis effectively for Jet.

That said, untangling this mess will be facinating.

Lightsaber


So I agree with everything you posted except #1. They have plans to try and keep it if Jet doesn’t come back, but they have to be prepared for the GOI to auction / distribute the slots. The govt has been clear they were temporary. You seem to be rooting for a disregard for the rules. Why? How can India have a sane aviation system if rules don’t matter. We all rail against corruption but some how people are silent when rules aren’t followed if they support the outcome. If I am mischaracterizing you, please please correct me. You seem super knowledgeable on indian aviation, but your comments on the slots really perplex me. Rules and laws matter. If Jet doesn’t resume by the deadline, the govt should have a transparent way of distributing them - and I would hope the govt favors competition and connectivity to the max city pairs. Which would probably mean Indigo and Spice (to a lesser extent) don’t get a ton unless others don’t want them. Sorry that is my 2 cents/paisa.
 
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unrave
Posts: 2584
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:25 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
The aviation ministry came out a few hours ago and reiterated that the grant of Jet slots to other airlines are only on a temporary basis.


MoCA is just creating paperwork so they won't get blamed for killing Jet to feed SpiceJet. The only thing matters and the public would never know is what Modi wants. If there were primitive (non-verbal, non-written) instructions to end Jet, no one can save it, the entire country will work to achieve that outcome.

SBI probably spent 100 Crores over the last eight months hiring all four major auditors and every aviation consultancy in India and UK just to create support paperwork why it didn't give 400 Cr. The blame will be spread so thin and wide, no one can pin blame on one person or entity.

India at its best.

Jet fans should stop blaming MoCA, the banks, PM Modi, the butterfly effect and the Big Bang for Jet's demise. The airline died because it was an unviable operation making too little revenue for too long.

The banks did absolutely the right thing by not throwing good money after bad. Jai Hind.
Denial of racism is as egregious as racism itself
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:50 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A little sanity. Bidders are still doing due diligence. Final bids will be submitted later:

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/ec ... 2.ece/amp/

My take:
1. If airlines using temporary slots do not have a strategy to keep them, they are fools.
2. No bids yet, no withdrawals from process.
3. There needs to be a strategy to keep some pilots and aircraft.
4. Jet phase 2 needs severe cost cutting.
5. Wet leased aircraft are at extreame risk of return (with slots) to Jet. That is 22 aircraft per the previous discussion. All others are SpiceJet only.

What Jet is losing is customer loyalty.

But latest news gives some hope of a revival. The link is SpiceJet wet leasing. That puts aircraft in stasis effectively for Jet.

That said, untangling this mess will be facinating.

Lightsaber


So I agree with everything you posted except #1. They have plans to try and keep it if Jet doesn’t come back, but they have to be prepared for the GOI to auction / distribute the slots. The govt has been clear they were temporary. You seem to be rooting for a disregard for the rules. Why? How can India have a sane aviation system if rules don’t matter. We all rail against corruption but some how people are silent when rules aren’t followed if they support the outcome. If I am mischaracterizing you, please please correct me. You seem super knowledgeable on indian aviation, but your comments on the slots really perplex me. Rules and laws matter. If Jet doesn’t resume by the deadline, the govt should have a transparent way of distributing them - and I would hope the govt favors competition and connectivity to the max city pairs. Which would probably mean Indigo and Spice (to a lesser extent) don’t get a ton unless others don’t want them. Sorry that is my 2 cents/paisa.

Rules as I interpret it are either back to Jet or first come, first serve. There are no provisions to sell or auction the slots.

There is a cost to occupy. I agree rules matter. Show me the link. Since there isn't a plan, what are the rules to surrender before issuing.

You seem to not want the slots filled quickly. Do I mis-characterize? So far, everything I've read is temporary slot holders keep what Jet doesn't timely reclaim.

Filling service quick means compromise.
You are putting in rules beyond what was impossed to be granted to auction.

The government wanted fares down. To incentivise rapid expansion, they promised any slots not taken back by Jet are kept by the operator.

So point #1, keeping the slots.
With the wetlease of Jet aircraft, SpiceJet must be paying the leasing company. It would be trivial to contractually commit the leasing company to transfer the lease to SpiceJet.
Other ways is keep the new phase 2 Jet from being viable. E.g., buy debt to delay recovery. If phase 2 is post summer, slots are kept.

I'm for laws. Put them in place before hand. That wasn't done. So trying to change the rules to impose order isn't law, that is crony capitalism.

I'm into game theory. There are just too many ways to play this game. There might be a Jet phase 2, but they only get all slots if they fly 119 aircraft. Every party should ensure they keep the maximum.

Lightsaber
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DTWLAX
Posts: 913
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:05 am

directorguy wrote:
Apologies if this has already been posted

https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/ ... 1.63480364

Emirates and Spicejet have signed a code-share deal.


Any idea how long will this take to get approved? I am guessing not until the election results are out and the new government has settled in.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1073
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:14 am

Lightsabe - you don’t lose LHR slots immeadiately either. Given india doesn’t seem to have a quick restructuring system, I think the goi did the right thing. The slots are temporary until the end of the summer season. Seemed fair, and guess what airlines responded
. What is the issue? The govt has not mentioned how they will hand out slots if Jet doesn’t come back. To say it is first come is fake news. Again correct me if I am wrong. And if it has been said you keep the slots if Jet doesn’t come back, I am fine with it. That said it is a missed opportunity. Airports hand out slots to increase competition and connectivity. Apparently this view is controversial here.
Why do I want the GOI to follow their own rules on the slots? It’s because as much value in Jet should be saved. The notion that you just shut something down and recover zero value is not how capitalism works in most of the world. Restructuring, while not perfect, is hardly some crazy concept. Goyal has been removed, which I support. The winner to any Jet sale seems to be the banks and the Indian tax payer. Not to mention any Jet employees that are kept. So what is the issue? Spice Jet can’t get something for free? Btw I support Spice’s restructuring before. Corruption aside, restructuring can work and can be good for the economy, the company and the employees.
 
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B747fanReal
Posts: 33
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:20 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Lightsabe - you don’t lose LHR slots immeadiately either. Given india doesn’t seem to have a quick restructuring system, I think the goi did the right thing. The slots are temporary until the end of the summer season. Seemed fair, and guess what airlines responded
. What is the issue? The govt has not mentioned how they will hand out slots if Jet doesn’t come back. To say it is first come is fake news. Again correct me if I am wrong. And if it has been said you keep the slots if Jet doesn’t come back, I am fine with it. That said it is a missed opportunity. Airports hand out slots to increase competition and connectivity. Apparently this view is controversial here.
Why do I want the GOI to follow their own rules on the slots? It’s because as much value in Jet should be saved. The notion that you just shut something down and recover zero value is not how capitalism works in most of the world. Restructuring, while not perfect, is hardly some crazy concept. Goyal has been removed, which I support. The winner to any Jet sale seems to be the banks and the Indian tax payer. Not to mention any Jet employees that are kept. So what is the issue? Spice Jet can’t get something for free? Btw I support Spice’s restructuring before. Corruption aside, restructuring can work and can be good for the economy, the company and the employees.


The LHR slots were sold to Etihad in a prior bailout deal and Jet had those slots on lease from Etihad


Sent from my iPhone XS MAX using Tapatalk
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1073
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:39 am

B747fanReal wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Lightsabe - you don’t lose LHR slots immeadiately either. Given india doesn’t seem to have a quick restructuring system, I think the goi did the right thing. The slots are temporary until the end of the summer season. Seemed fair, and guess what airlines responded
. What is the issue? The govt has not mentioned how they will hand out slots if Jet doesn’t come back. To say it is first come is fake news. Again correct me if I am wrong. And if it has been said you keep the slots if Jet doesn’t come back, I am fine with it. That said it is a missed opportunity. Airports hand out slots to increase competition and connectivity. Apparently this view is controversial here.
Why do I want the GOI to follow their own rules on the slots? It’s because as much value in Jet should be saved. The notion that you just shut something down and recover zero value is not how capitalism works in most of the world. Restructuring, while not perfect, is hardly some crazy concept. Goyal has been removed, which I support. The winner to any Jet sale seems to be the banks and the Indian tax payer. Not to mention any Jet employees that are kept. So what is the issue? Spice Jet can’t get something for free? Btw I support Spice’s restructuring before. Corruption aside, restructuring can work and can be good for the economy, the company and the employees.


The LHR slots were sold to Etihad in a prior bailout deal and Jet had those slots on lease from Etihad


Sent from my iPhone XS MAX using Tapatalk


Sorry I wasn’t referring to Jet’s LHR slots. I was referring to LHR slots generally. I think they let you not use the slots for some time before you lose them.
 
vadodara
Posts: 920
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:40 am

unrave wrote:
Jet fans should stop blaming MoCA, the banks, PM Modi, the butterfly effect and the Big Bang for Jet's demise. The airline died because it was an unviable operation making too little revenue for too long.

The banks did absolutely the right thing by not throwing good money after bad. Jai Hind.


Yes and the guys who enjoyed 9W’s Class F seats should put a rescue package for the favorite airline.
 
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B747fanReal
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:44 pm

Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:53 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
B747fanReal wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Lightsabe - you don’t lose LHR slots immeadiately either. Given india doesn’t seem to have a quick restructuring system, I think the goi did the right thing. The slots are temporary until the end of the summer season. Seemed fair, and guess what airlines responded
. What is the issue? The govt has not mentioned how they will hand out slots if Jet doesn’t come back. To say it is first come is fake news. Again correct me if I am wrong. And if it has been said you keep the slots if Jet doesn’t come back, I am fine with it. That said it is a missed opportunity. Airports hand out slots to increase competition and connectivity. Apparently this view is controversial here.
Why do I want the GOI to follow their own rules on the slots? It’s because as much value in Jet should be saved. The notion that you just shut something down and recover zero value is not how capitalism works in most of the world. Restructuring, while not perfect, is hardly some crazy concept. Goyal has been removed, which I support. The winner to any Jet sale seems to be the banks and the Indian tax payer. Not to mention any Jet employees that are kept. So what is the issue? Spice Jet can’t get something for free? Btw I support Spice’s restructuring before. Corruption aside, restructuring can work and can be good for the economy, the company and the employees.


The LHR slots were sold to Etihad in a prior bailout deal and Jet had those slots on lease from Etihad


Sent from my iPhone XS MAX using Tapatalk


Sorry I wasn’t referring to Jet’s LHR slots. I was referring to LHR slots generally. I think they let you not use the slots for some time before you lose them.

Those slots need to be flied 80% of the time or they are taken back so if you don’t fly 20% of the time, you lose them
Now back to the topic


Sent from my iPhone XS MAX using Tapatalk

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