edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 5:44 pm

More lose talk from SBI Chairman...heck and he is directly involved with selling Jet. I guess you don’t need Marketing skills to qualify as Chairman of one of India’s largest banks

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomb ... t-air-sale
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 7:14 pm

How much have hotel rates and bookings in India changed due to the Jet shutdown? I find references to massive cancellations, but I have no idea what has happened to revenue per room. Does anyone have a link? Since hotel taxes are significant, I would think communities want restored service yesterday to keep the money taps open.

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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 7:41 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Lenders "have no hard assets to liquidate" so there is no incentive to force bankruptcy.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKCN1S81A0

Oh, this is a quagmire. This will be a MBA case study. India needs to get in front of their laws before a generation of MBAs is taught this lesson.

Lightsaber

Aren’t there Jet owned 77Ws to dispose and recover money?
 
DLPMMM
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 8:41 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Lenders "have no hard assets to liquidate" so there is no incentive to force bankruptcy.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/mobile.reute ... SKCN1S81A0

Oh, this is a quagmire. This will be a MBA case study. India needs to get in front of their laws before a generation of MBAs is taught this lesson.

Lightsaber

Aren’t there Jet owned 77Ws to dispose and recover money?


I am sure the 77Ws are collateralized and most likely financially upside down. Selling them would only increase the unsecured debt.

Better luck in trying to bail out your sinking boat with a thimble.
Last edited by DLPMMM on Thu May 02, 2019 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
smartplane
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 8:41 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
.... I am curious how the dutch courts allowed the Jet aircraft to be seized in AMS for an unsecured debt. Seems odd....


In principle, it's actually quite simple. The unsecured creditor has exhausted all ways of collecting debt, short of going to court. So, he went to court, and got an order, authorizing a lien on any asset of the debtor he could find. The creditor found an asset -- an airplane, belonging to Jet, and posted a lien against it. Now, he is a secured creditor, and the airplane is his security.

Possession is................

If the aircraft was security for a single loan (it isn't), the lender would usually pay the creditor. Sometimes, when the aircraft is security for multiple loans, the lender with the largest exposure, will pay the creditor, get the aircraft home, and then seize it themselves to prevent repetition and erosion of the asset value.

In a more organised shut down, the receiver / liquidator would communicate with all creditors, advising all payments post receivership will be honoured, and describe the pre-receivership process.

As others have pointed out, India is like the Wild West of old when it comes to credit and defaults.

While owners are signing short-term leases to generate income on aircraft that have accrued multiple months of zero revenue (and to bide time while seeking de-registration), unless something changes in India, owners will be working overtime to find new, more permanent homes outside India, sell, or significantly re-price the risk.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 8:43 pm

With no income coming in at this point, and debt not going away, no appreciable assets what are they biding on? A tarnished name? It seems ludicrous at this point.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Thu May 02, 2019 9:02 pm

smartplane wrote:
.....

If the aircraft was security for a single loan (it isn't), the lender would usually pay the creditor. Sometimes, when the aircraft is security for multiple loans, the lender with the largest exposure, will pay the creditor, get the aircraft home, and then seize it themselves to prevent repetition and erosion of the asset value.
...


If an unsecured lender ("lender A") has managed to "catch" a moveable asset at his home jurisdiction and staple the lien to it -- all these complicated ideas about largest lender taking precedence, etc. -- fade for this particular "lender A". He has now release authority, and until dues to him are cleared, he will hold the asset grounded.

Of course, the problems for "lender A" could start, if multiple other lender show up with their liens, and burden the same asset with too many claims, as to make its release uneconomical for the owner. Then, the asset will be probably eventually auctioned off, but who gets paid first and in full, could be different from who was the first to staple their lien.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 6:24 pm

Jet Airways stock plunges 12%, hits 52-week low of Rs 122 during the day

When Jet stock was Rs 240, I had opined that it was overpriced and said short sellers would likely do well. Well, they would have gained 100% by now. I still think Rs 122 is overpriced....and that the stock at this point should be in the Rs 10 - 20 range, at best. let's see if my prediction holds that Rs 122 is highly inflated.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 852_1.html
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 6:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Review bilaterals? Does that mean India wants to revert to the prior bilateral? That or cancelling are the only unilateral actions allowed.

Lightsaber


An Indian court is reviewing Subramanium Swamy's claim that India gave away valuable rights (50,000 seats?) to Etihad/Abu Dhabi. If the court rules in Swami's favor, it would be a double whammy for Etihad as not only is their investment in Jet lost but also the 50K bilateral seats. I suspect that if Etihad doesn't bid on Jet and allows 22,000 to lose their jobs, the court, which should NOT be influenced by the loss of jobs, may, contrary to established law, may let that play on their minds.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 6:41 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Review bilaterals? Does that mean India wants to revert to the prior bilateral? That or cancelling are the only unilateral actions allowed.

Lightsaber


An Indian court is reviewing Subramanium Swamy's claim that India gave away valuable rights (50,000 seats?) to Etihad/Abu Dhabi. If the court rules in Swami's favor, it would be a double whammy for Etihad as not only is their investment in Jet lost but also the 50K bilateral seats. I suspect that if Etihad doesn't bid on Jet and allows 22,000 to lose their jobs, the court, which should NOT be influenced by the loss of jobs, may, contrary to established law, may let that play on their minds.

Then the bilateral reverts. Do you know what India gained for the seats? For a court ruling is a unilateral decision. Unless agreed, bilaterals cannot be modified, only revert to prior revisions. So I'm curious I'd the air service rights were tied to anything.

Lightsaber
Late edit. This might have been a pure air service rights increase. Thus one lost port of call and revert to 13,600 seats/week.
https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2013/ ... ou-on.html

Note:. Prior quoted at 13,300, but since an extra is allowed, it will be used.

Bummer for EY. It looks like the other Indian airlines will be under the prior bilateral. So in this case, a reversion makes sense.

Even with this, saving Jet is just too expensive. Abu Dhabi has assets, but not enough cash. Wow, this will further boost fares in/out of India.

Does India have the unused bilateral rights to make up the shortfall?

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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 7:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:


An Indian court is reviewing Subramanium Swamy's claim that India gave away valuable rights (50,000 seats?) to Etihad/Abu Dhabi. If the court rules in Swami's favor, it would be a double whammy for Etihad as not only is their investment in Jet lost but also the 50K bilateral seats. I suspect that if Etihad doesn't bid on Jet and allows 22,000 to lose their jobs, the court, which should NOT be influenced by the loss of jobs, may, contrary to established law, may let that play on their minds.

Then the bilateral reverts. Do you know what India gained for the seats? For a court ruling is a unilateral decision. Unless agreed, bilaterals cannot be modified, only revert to prior revisions. So I'm curious I'd the air service rights were tied to anything.

Lightsaber
Late edit. This might have been a pure air service rights increase. Thus one lost port of call and revert to 13,600 seats/week.
https://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2013/ ... ou-on.html

Note:. Prior quoted at 13,300, but since an extra is allowed, it will be used.

Bummer for EY. It looks like the other Indian airlines will be under the prior bilateral. So in this case, a reversion makes sense.

Even with this, saving Jet is just too expensive. Abu Dhabi has assets, but not enough cash. Wow, this will further boost fares in/out of India.

Does India have the unused bilateral rights to make up the shortfall?

Lightsaber


Here is the link to the Subramanium Swamy case. Ironically, it was the court that asked him to amend his plea and specifically "directed him to also challenge the bilateral agreement between India and the UAE on increasing the number of flights between the two countries". Can you imagine this? The court directing the petitioner to amend his petition so that it asks for something that the court possibly direct wants?

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 597_1.html

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 00511.html
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 7:58 pm

It is interesting that all the lenders appear to be Indian (vs say UK or US banks), are all the rules and deals such that everyone else sees too much risk to take on the financing. This Jet financial sinkhole is going to kill any other airline from investing in India unless it is a real sweetheart deal. EY learned its lesson, probably lost all of its 24% equity stake in Jet, lost all the connecting traffic, etc.

It appears that the banks aren't getting a 80% haircut, it is a shave bare 100% coming.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 8:19 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
It is interesting that all the lenders appear to be Indian (vs say UK or US banks)...

Hardly surprising, considering you have to go to government bureaucracy and Reserve Bank of India, in order to be permitted to participate in External Commercial Borrowing mechanisms.
On the other hand, considering the difference in interest rates, no wonder it's advantageous for Indian banking sector to limit such direct borrowing by companies, and steer borrowers to Indian banks and their higher interest rates.
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Fri May 03, 2019 9:38 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
This Jet financial sinkhole is going to kill any other airline from investing in India unless it is a real sweetheart deal. EY learned its lesson, probably lost all of its 24% equity stake in Jet, lost all the connecting traffic, etc.

It appears that the banks aren't getting a 80% haircut, it is a shave bare 100% coming.

It will limit investment in continuing airlines. Vistara and AirAsia I feel will continue to be invested in.

Etihad will be a major business case in MBA and political science how bad investing can hurt a nation.

I'm very curious if EY must drop to 13,600 seats/week. If so, EK must send a few people gift baskets.

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CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:11 am

lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
This Jet financial sinkhole is going to kill any other airline from investing in India unless it is a real sweetheart deal. EY learned its lesson, probably lost all of its 24% equity stake in Jet, lost all the connecting traffic, etc.

It appears that the banks aren't getting a 80% haircut, it is a shave bare 100% coming.

It will limit investment in continuing airlines. Vistara and AirAsia I feel will continue to be invested in.

Etihad will be a major business case in MBA and political science how bad investing can hurt a nation.

I'm very curious if EY must drop to 13,600 seats/week. If so, EK must send a few people gift baskets.

Lightsaber


While this makes all indian investments seem more dangerous (remember it’s the lack of bankruptcy laws rather than something aviation related that is the issue now), I think investors already know how crazy india’s business environment is. It’s just sad this went from Goyal being a bad manager to the GOI and India’s financial institutions fail to save the day once again. It has shown the rot run deeper than just Goyal/Jet

As far as a MBA cases, maybe in a Dubai business school. None of the cases my business school here in the US used focused on crony capitalism and extorting cheap ME money. US business schools like to pretend that this type of crap doesn’t happen in real market economies (I’m not agreeing with it just pointing out my experience)
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:21 am

How many planes that are already returned to lessors as of May 2019?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:56 am

Twitter profile of Jason Unsworth the found of Atmosphere, which owns zero airplanes. However, Mr. Unsworth got tremendous media attention in India. This 25 year old kid sure know how to take the gullible Indian media on a long ride.

https://twitter.com/jasonunsworth2?

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/co ... 40181.html

And CNBC even interviewed him!
https://www.cnbctv18.com/aviation/briti ... 062961.htm

At least Quartz has called him out (something that I did on Day 1 when I ran a simple search on Google. Why didn'tr teh Indian media just that instead of treating him like a King?
https://qz.com/india/1604294/atmosphere ... t-airways/
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:25 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
This Jet financial sinkhole is going to kill any other airline from investing in India unless it is a real sweetheart deal. EY learned its lesson, probably lost all of its 24% equity stake in Jet, lost all the connecting traffic, etc.

It appears that the banks aren't getting a 80% haircut, it is a shave bare 100% coming.

It will limit investment in continuing airlines. Vistara and AirAsia I feel will continue to be invested in.

Etihad will be a major business case in MBA and political science how bad investing can hurt a nation.

I'm very curious if EY must drop to 13,600 seats/week. If so, EK must send a few people gift baskets.

Lightsaber


While this makes all indian investments seem more dangerous (remember it’s the lack of bankruptcy laws rather than something aviation related that is the issue now), I think investors already know how crazy india’s business environment is. It’s just sad this went from Goyal being a bad manager to the GOI and India’s financial institutions fail to save the day once again. It has shown the rot run deeper than just Goyal/Jet

As far as a MBA cases, maybe in a Dubai business school. None of the cases my business school here in the US used focused on crony capitalism and extorting cheap ME money. US business schools like to pretend that this type of crap doesn’t happen in real market economies (I’m not agreeing with it just pointing out my experience)

I've seen West Coast US Business schools go into real world issues (China, India, and others). If the school is more 'ideal market,' then the students won't be ready for the real world.

Goyal/Jet has rot. But this will give a peak into it going deeper. What matters is:
1. How fast service restarts (domestic and international). Fares are elevated. This is effecting hotel bookings and business within India. More business than Jet matters and that business pays much more in taxes, so it will be listened to.
2. How much the bank losses will effect lending within India. This will come back to aviation in terms of demand.
3. How profitable (stable) the replacement capacity.

As I posted before, I think in 15 to 24 months, India will return to oversupply. However, the best run airlines will still make a profit as their costs are low enough.


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sibibom
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:36 am

edealinfo wrote:
Jet Airways stock plunges 12%, hits 52-week low of Rs 122 during the day

When Jet stock was Rs 240, I had opined that it was overpriced and said short sellers would likely do well. Well, they would have gained 100% by now. I still think Rs 122 is overpriced....and that the stock at this point should be in the Rs 10 - 20 range, at best. let's see if my prediction holds that Rs 122 is highly inflated.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 852_1.html


Jet's stock was removed from Futures and Options category couple of weeks back. Short-selling is no longer possible. Now it's a controlled crash landing of the stock, with as many getting out as possible. I suspect by next week even speculators buying it, hoping for miraculous turnaround will also disappear.
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 7:11 am

sibibom wrote:
Jet's stock was removed from Futures and Options category couple of weeks back. Short-selling is no longer possible. Now it's a controlled crash landing of the stock, with as many getting out as possible. I suspect by next week even speculators buying it, hoping for miraculous turnaround will also disappear.


Jet Airways shares price fell -30% in one day. Somebody told me Bomaby stock exchange (BSE) is the biggest casino in the world.
 
Crazy4Planes
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 9:52 am

There are reports that some employees will raise 7000 cr to take a controlling stake in the airline.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/jet-airways-employees-meet-sbi-caps-present-proposal-to-take-over-airline-3925831.html
 
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 1:05 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
...
As far as a MBA cases, maybe in a Dubai business school. None of the cases my business school here in the US used focused on crony capitalism and extorting cheap ME money. US business schools like to pretend that this type of crap doesn’t happen in real market economies (I’m not agreeing with it just pointing out my experience)


The whole case study has to be based on gossips (aka Indian mainstream media reports), with every possible scenario leaked and reported, but never matches the actual events.

This is the best case of how to create plausible deniability while screwing taxpayers/depositors without them knowing.

Everyone except depositors/taxpayers will emerge unscratched including Goyal, that is the beauty.

After retirement, SBI/DGCA/MoCA officials explain how they successfully took down Jet, but it is not their fault, because someone asked them to do it. Like Jitender Bhargava parroting how Air India's descent is everyone else's fault, even though he didn't do anything to stop.
 
MKKing
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 1:34 pm

Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 1:37 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Everyone except depositors/taxpayers will emerge unscratched including Goyal, that is the beauty.


I wonder what advanced course teaches that being left without what was once a billion $ company is called "emerging unscathed"
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:17 pm

Crazy4Planes wrote:
There are reports that some employees will raise 7000 cr to take a controlling stake in the airline.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/jet-airways-employees-meet-sbi-caps-present-proposal-to-take-over-airline-3925831.html


This proposal will compete with Mr. Unsworth's proposal. That 25 year old person, with zero assets and prior experience as a flight attendant, even got CNBC to interview him and huge Indian media attention (every Indian newspaper carried his story to take over Jet without even doing a cursory check on his background which would have showed that Atmosphere Airlines (his company and the one that would help Jet take off again) was just a made up dream on paper with all his relatives as employees and Directors of Atmosphere. Heck, this guy is now asking all Jet employees to apply to Atmosphere Airlines for a job there. His name should have been Mr. Pipe Piper.

Now the employees takeover proposal promises 3,000 crore investment (with zero named investors) and a "hypothetical" contribution from an employee stock option program. SBI should ask to see the cash in an escrow account otherwise this will Pipe Pier proposal 2. And, since when have banks lent against hypothetical contributions from stock options?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:20 pm

Are Vistara's 10 planes (taken over from Jet) being refurbished in full Vistara livery inside and outside the plane?
 
VTCIE
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:26 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Are Vistara's 10 planes (taken over from Jet) being refurbished in full Vistara livery inside and outside the plane?

Related question. Are SpiceJet and Vistara fitting their respective streaming IFE systems on the ex-9W 737s? This is especially true of ancient planes like VT-SYK (fmr. VT-JGA), which was built in 2002.

Personal note. My last-ever 9W flight was on this plane: 9W853, GAU-CCU, mid-June 2018. VT-JGA was the oldest bird in the 9W fleet.
Last edited by VTCIE on Sat May 04, 2019 2:31 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:27 pm

MKKing wrote:
Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??


If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:44 pm

Economic Times has an article on available seats (from bilaterals) to take over from Jet (summarized below). It is about 10K on average for the 5 listed destinations. I assume DXB is the most desired followed by Singapore.

Dubai: 13K
Singapore: 11K
Abu Dhabi: 10.5K
Thailand: 10K
Doha: 8.5 K

Here is a snippet from the article:
“With new flight launches and plans, the domestic sector is stabilising but problem in the international routes is severe and these rights will need to be awarded to stabilise the situation”.

I anticipate that the Government will allocate rights to foreign destinations at the close of business on May 10 when zero bids come in for Jet. This way, no one can accuse the Government of "giving away Jet's foreign rights to bring down the value of Jet".

The dilemma for airlines is if they use flights on international routes it means less chance to use the same plane to grab more BOM and DEL slots (as domestic sectors have much shorter turnaround time than international flights).


Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 170007.cms
Last edited by edealinfo on Sat May 04, 2019 3:02 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 2:47 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
MKKing wrote:
Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??


If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.


I completely understand that Congress will go after SG. But why would Modi go after 6E, which was never anti-Modi or bee jay pee?
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:05 pm

edealinfo wrote:
...
But why would Modi go after 6E


If the 40 number is true SG fleet will reach 121. So greed kicks in. 200 seems doable. Little push this side, few hurdles to competitors. Both are not possible without Modi.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:30 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
MKKing wrote:
Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??


If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.


You know, since Modi has been in charge for a while, it totally explains why 6E is bankrupt and collapsing.

Oh wait.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:33 pm

Antarius wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
MKKing wrote:
Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??


If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.


You know, since Modi has been in charge for a while, it totally explains why 6E is bankrupt and collapsing.

Oh wait.


All you guys are beating about the bush and I don't get it. What's Modi's issue with Indigo?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:38 pm

I am predicting that when the Government announces allocation of jet's international quota to other airlines, "Dubai" will be gone in 60 seconds.......and SpiceJet, indigo, and Air India will be the lucky allotees (by distributing the seats across airlines the Government will avoid charges of favoritism)
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:40 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:

If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.


You know, since Modi has been in charge for a while, it totally explains why 6E is bankrupt and collapsing.

Oh wait.


All you guys are beating about the bush and I don't get it. What's Modi's issue with Indigo?


My point was that there isnt one. Under the current government, 6E has continued to grow, so unless *tin foil on* Modi is waiting till a second term to suddenly destroy 6E, there doesnt appear to be much merit to this.

Just another source free opinion.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:44 pm

Antarius wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:

You know, since Modi has been in charge for a while, it totally explains why 6E is bankrupt and collapsing.

Oh wait.


All you guys are beating about the bush and I don't get it. What's Modi's issue with Indigo?


My point was that there isnt one. Under the current government, 6E has continued to grow, so unless *tin foil on* Modi is waiting till a second term to suddenly destroy 6E, there doesnt appear to be much merit to this.

Just another source free opinion.

Gotcha, thanks. And, you point makes sense, logically.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 3:51 pm

edealinfo wrote:
...
All you guys are beating about the bush and I don't get it. What's Modi's issue with Indigo?


Not beating around the bushes, the answer is not aviation related.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 4:11 pm

Why if a company does well do others spend so much effort to bring them down. Crab potting (If I don't win, no one wins) slows down the economy.

SpiceJet pulled a coup. Congrats to them. Others are taking 737s too. The reality is the greater Indian economy is feeling the Jet shutdown (hotels, tourist destinations, business people not flying to do business). Friction in business is always a bad thing (slows economic growth which means fewer jobs).

India needs domestic and international flights to increase investment (both domestic and foreign). The velocity of money is important. Either get it back up or watch growth slow. That means allocate flights.

I've yet to see a proposal that will work saving Jet. But that is based on my understanding of the costs to restart Jet. My estimate is higher than the funds I see being raised.

Personally, EY is likely to shrink. The loss of those bilateral rights will further reduce international travel in/out of India. What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 4:26 pm

lightsaber wrote:
What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber


All countries that are 5,000 Kilometers away from New Delhi are eligible for open skies. 5K requirement was selected primarily to make China and Turkey ineligible for this "scheme".
 
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 4:33 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber


All countries that are 5,000 Kilometers away from New Delhi are eligible for open skies. 5K requirement was selected primarily to make China and Turkey ineligible for this "scheme".

Good news, now how many have signed an open skies with India? Aviation rights are typically a small part of a trade bilateral. While we focus on that aspect here, there is often horse trading to get there for other industries. Does anyone have a list of India open skies that are effective today? All I know is that the USA and India have one.

Lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 4:49 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Why if a company does well do others spend so much effort to bring them down. Crab potting (If I don't win, no one wins) slows down the economy.
Lightsaber


Every party works at crosspurposes:

1. Jet -- established the 5/20 rule, no foreign investment in airlines (to block Tata's Joint venture with Singapore in 2000), then foreign investment (when Jet needed cash from Etihad.

2. Indigo - used Subramanium Swamy (SS) to file cases against Jet, and then against AirAsia India and Vistara, and now turns against SpiceJet.

3. Indigo, Jet, and SpiceJet banded and does not allow AirAsia India and Vistara to join their airlines advocacy/lobbying group.

4. Government -- favors SpiceJet

5. Spicejet - tows the Government line -- first to support UDAN, proposal for seaplanes for enhanced connectivity to certain areas, support for biofuels (at least on paper), routes to politicians' constituencies, etc.

6. Air India: receives subsidy from the Government which undermines competitors

7. Government -- heavily taxes jet fuel, MRO, spares

8. Banks -- force management out and then pulls the rug when in charge (Jet)

9. Bureaucracy -- various factions support different airlines; leaks information to undermine airlines that are not in their camp

10. DGCA -- castrated and incompetent

11. Competition Authority --- sleeping at the wheels

12. Public -- wants the cheapest fares regardless of whether of whether those fares also mean the death knell of airlines

13. Politicians -- want air connectivity in their district regardless of whether the flight would be profitable or has demand

14. State Government -- heavy taxes on jet fuel since flying is deemed for the elite.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 4:59 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
MKKing wrote:
Do you think India's other airlines "Spicejet" and Indian Airlines will survive when Jet Airways is closing down ??


If Modi becomes PM, 6E will have a target on its back, if some other becomes PM, SG will have a target on its back.

What 9W case proved, it is very easy for government cutoff legal and other money channels to a business with a wink.

Reads like one of the harebrained comments of a certain "journalist".

Modi has been PM for 5 years now. No wonder IndiGo is on the verge of shutdown.
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:00 pm

edealinfo wrote:

2. Indigo - used Subramanium Swamy (SS) to file cases against Jet, and then against AirAsia India and Vistara, and now turns against SpiceJet.


Credible source for this claim?
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:01 pm

lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
What countries does India have open skies besides USA (due to distance/fuel taxes there is limited opportunity)?

Lightsaber


All countries that are 5,000 Kilometers away from New Delhi are eligible for open skies. 5K requirement was selected primarily to make China and Turkey ineligible for this "scheme".

Good news, now how many have signed an open skies with India? Aviation rights are typically a small part of a trade bilateral. While we focus on that aspect here, there is often horse trading to get there for other industries. Does anyone have a list of India open skies that are effective today? All I know is that the USA and India have one.

Lightsaber


I believe Japan signed up. Other than that, I think a few other countries for which there is a 0% probability that the airlines there will ever fly to India (Fiji?, Guyana? another country in the Caribbean, and 1 more country in Africa). This so called open skies scheme is only for publicity.....has little practical use....just like the open skies deal with the USA.....how many American airlines fly to India? Just a handful which would have been the case even if there wasn't an open skies agreement.

Oh, yes. India also has an open skies agreement with Australia and Zero Australian airlines fly to India.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:13 pm

On further research:

The open skies agreement so far is with Jamaica, Guyana, Czech Republic, Greece, Finland, Spain, Sri Lanka, Japan, USA and Australia.

The open skies agreement with Sri Lanka is kind of redundant because India offers liberalized agreement with SAARC countries.
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:18 pm

edealinfo wrote:
The open skies agreement with Sri Lanka is kind of redundant.

No it is not. Research better to figure out the difference between bilats with SL vs Nepal.
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:20 pm

edealinfo wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

All countries that are 5,000 Kilometers away from New Delhi are eligible for open skies. 5K requirement was selected primarily to make China and Turkey ineligible for this "scheme".

Good news, now how many have signed an open skies with India? Aviation rights are typically a small part of a trade bilateral. While we focus on that aspect here, there is often horse trading to get there for other industries. Does anyone have a list of India open skies that are effective today? All I know is that the USA and India have one.

Lightsaber


I believe Japan signed up. Other than that, I think a few other countries for which there is a 0% probability that the airlines there will ever fly to India (Fiji?, Guyana? another country in the Caribbean, and 1 more country in Africa). This so called open skies scheme is only for publicity.....has little practical use....just like the open skies deal with the USA.....how many American airlines fly to India? Just a handful which would have been the case even if there wasn't an open skies agreement.

Oh, yes. India also has an open skies agreement with Australia and Zero Australian airlines fly to India.

First thank you.
I agree that few of these rights will be used.

Taking the big picture view, I speculate that 5000km was to also limit to widebody flights for these regs were written before NEO/MAX exceeded promise (to others, real range < 85% brochure range).

The A321LR and (hopefully) 797 put this assumption on it's ear. If the EU/UK signs.

Lightsaber

Late edit, I see the EU countries onboard. MAD hub? ;) Not much other likely.
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:22 pm

lightsaber wrote:

Taking the big picture view, I speculate that 5000km was to also limit to widebody flights for these regs were written before NEO/MAX exceeded promise (to others, real range < 85% brochure range).


Lightsaber

5000 km from DEL rule was put in place to ensure the mega hubs to the west and east of India do not end up with unrestricted access to India
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Sat May 04, 2019 5:49 pm

Folks, post respectfully or people will get banned. A simple rule, if you are not ok with something said about your people, expect to get banned if you say it about someone else.

There is a reason we state revpar or other metrics on why routes might or might not be viable.

Lightsaber
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