CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 12:49 pm

I agree that NG’s arrest is a strong message, but I don’t get what EY needs to prove to anyone. They are not Indian and the public doesn’t care. I think EY would like to save Jet. The UAE is heavily invested in aviation and India is key to their strategy. Where EY and the UAE is misplaying this is by their insistence of getting perfect terms. This is speculation but it seems like NG blackmailed them, or tried, so now EY is taking the we don’t care route. Well looks like we dont care is getting their wish. Jet won’t come back and there is ZERO way EY can fill their current schedule without the Jet lift and FF base. Blowing a billion trying to save Alitalia has no strategic value for the UAE, blowing another billion to save and control Jet, does. That said, I think the process should end. Either move forward with a plan or just close Jet already.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 1:49 pm

avier wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
As Spicjet is taking so many ex 9W planes, they should name those planes as SpiceJet Airways. Instead of Red with White Dots, they should paint those planes Blue with Yellow dots, that would actually look great.


Creative thinking. It would end up looking like Brussels Airlines- blue with red dots. :)
Anyways, it's a nice time for SG to rebrand considering half their fleet is not bearing the proper livery and branding. Also, their brand would have taken a huge hit with their disruptive schedules along with shabby and poorly maintained aircrafts. Time for them to think of a new name and also position themselves as a hybrid airline with business class network wide.
The Jet Airways brand can actually also be reused, it still afterall has brand value.


I don't think it is as big an issue yet. As long as the price is right, in the short term, they will be able to fill their aircraft. Until this 9W slot allocation is sorted out, changing their brand strategy and trying to go premium... well, weve seen how that ended for every other player in the market.

Also, let's be honest- between AI and 9W, the market is used to shabby aircraft already.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 2:25 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I agree that NG’s arrest is a strong message, but I don’t get what EY needs to prove to anyone. They are not Indian and the public doesn’t care. I think EY would like to save Jet. The UAE is heavily invested in aviation and India is key to their strategy. Where EY and the UAE is misplaying this is by their insistence of getting perfect terms. This is speculation but it seems like NG blackmailed them, or tried, so now EY is taking the we don’t care route. Well looks like we dont care is getting their wish. Jet won’t come back and there is ZERO way EY can fill their current schedule without the Jet lift and FF base. Blowing a billion trying to save Alitalia has no strategic value for the UAE, blowing another billion to save and control Jet, does. That said, I think the process should end. Either move forward with a plan or just close Jet already.

Etihad is looking for a business case. While there is value to Jet long term, the terms so far offered are rediculous. Business negotiations are a slow dance be patient. Once Jet shutdown, there is no penalty to negotiate for a few more weeks. There is still value in Jet, the question is the total purchase price and liability.

Abu Dhabi has severe cash flow issues right now. Raising a billion USD isn't trivial. They are selling assets like the Crysler building at substantial losses to raise cash. Even an oil powerhouse has issues if they invest as poorly as Abu Dhabi has.

Now they have a real financial team. This means establishing a ROI.

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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 2:34 pm

Take the political discussion to non aviation.
Take the conspiracy theories to non aviation.

This is a thread on Jet's shutdown.
Discuss bids, aircraft allocation, slots, value in the company, employees, asset sales, repossession, pilots, but stop the name calling.

I've had to alert the moderation team about this thread. Political discussion results in fast bans. Name calling results in fast bans. This is your warning.

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pushpakvimaan
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 2:45 pm

Agreed, too much mud bashing around and conspiracy theories. It would be better if people share correct facts, instead of rumoring around
 
avier
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 4:45 pm

285 Jet Airways pilots have joined IndiGo, to fly in 3-6 months..as per IndiGo's latest earnings call regarding the last quarter and full yr results they just declared.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 5:00 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I agree that NG’s arrest is a strong message, but I don’t get what EY needs to prove to anyone. They are not Indian and the public doesn’t care. I think EY would like to save Jet. The UAE is heavily invested in aviation and India is key to their strategy. Where EY and the UAE is misplaying this is by their insistence of getting perfect terms. This is speculation but it seems like NG blackmailed them, or tried, so now EY is taking the we don’t care route. Well looks like we dont care is getting their wish. Jet won’t come back and there is ZERO way EY can fill their current schedule without the Jet lift and FF base. Blowing a billion trying to save Alitalia has no strategic value for the UAE, blowing another billion to save and control Jet, does. That said, I think the process should end. Either move forward with a plan or just close Jet already.


You seem to have a better sense of EY's intent than I do.

Anyway, there is a new report on MoneyControl (not a paper that i think has high credence but they gets bits and pieces of info that is helpful) that states that progress is being made and that the haircut is now up to 85% and the 3 parties, Etihad, AdiGro and the Hindujas are squabbling about Board and operational roles. What puzzles me is AdiGro's eagerness to invest before a thorough due diligence. Does this group actually have spare cash or are they another Jason Unsworth doing the media rounds for free publicity?

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 23001.html
 
avier
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 5:19 pm

edealinfo wrote:

Anyway, there is a new report on MoneyControl (not a paper that i think has high credence but they gets bits and pieces of info that is helpful) that states that progress is being made and that the haircut is now up to 85% and the 3 parties, Etihad, AdiGro and the Hindujas are squabbling about Board and operational roles.


And the re-elected govt. will come up with something that will likely throw a spanner in the works. Some cases, investigations to drag it on, by when it will be time for all the slots to have expired under the airlines AOC and then everyone will back off as there will be nothing left.
Afterall an ally needs to be favoured. Spice gets the boost while Jet gets the boot.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 5:35 pm

avier wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Anyway, there is a new report on MoneyControl (not a paper that i think has high credence but they gets bits and pieces of info that is helpful) that states that progress is being made and that the haircut is now up to 85% and the 3 parties, Etihad, AdiGro and the Hindujas are squabbling about Board and operational roles.


And the re-elected govt. will come up with something that will likely throw a spanner in the works. Some cases, investigations to drag it on, by when it will be time for all the slots to have expired under the airlines AOC and then everyone will back off as there will be nothing left.
Afterall an ally needs to be favoured. Spice gets the boost while Jet gets the boot.


Source?

See the mod note above. Theories absent of proof should go to non-av. 9W killed itself off and decimated its own chances of resurrection a long time ago.
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avier
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 5:49 pm

Antarius wrote:
Source?
See the mod note above. Theories absent of proof should go to non-av. 9W killed itself off and decimated its own chances of resurrection a long time ago.


Source for what? The future happenings? Didn't know we could do that. If I could have taken a snapshot from my crystal ball, I would have.
Though the investigations have already started and may likey scare the new interested investors away.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 6:02 pm

avier wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Source?
See the mod note above. Theories absent of proof should go to non-av. 9W killed itself off and decimated its own chances of resurrection a long time ago.


Source for what? The future happenings? Didn't know we could do that. If I could have taken a snapshot from my crystal ball, I would have.
Though the investigations have already started and may likey scare the new interested investors away.


You made a statement that the government would drag on an investigation with the goal of stymying the resurrection of 9W. What's the basis?

Obviously none of us can predict the future, but that isnt carte blanche to say whatever.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 6:12 pm

avier wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Spice gets the boost while Jet gets the boot.


That's quite a catchy line and because the statement is also likely the truth, it is even more punchier!
Last edited by edealinfo on Mon May 27, 2019 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 6:16 pm

This is a very interesting read from a newspaper article on why and how Jet's chariman was detained.

https://www.firstpost.com/business/nare ... 09811.html
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Mon May 27, 2019 6:51 pm

edealinfo wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
I agree that NG’s arrest is a strong message, but I don’t get what EY needs to prove to anyone. They are not Indian and the public doesn’t care. I think EY would like to save Jet. The UAE is heavily invested in aviation and India is key to their strategy. Where EY and the UAE is misplaying this is by their insistence of getting perfect terms. This is speculation but it seems like NG blackmailed them, or tried, so now EY is taking the we don’t care route. Well looks like we dont care is getting their wish. Jet won’t come back and there is ZERO way EY can fill their current schedule without the Jet lift and FF base. Blowing a billion trying to save Alitalia has no strategic value for the UAE, blowing another billion to save and control Jet, does. That said, I think the process should end. Either move forward with a plan or just close Jet already.


You seem to have a better sense of EY's intent than I do.

Anyway, there is a new report on MoneyControl (not a paper that i think has high credence but they gets bits and pieces of info that is helpful) that states that progress is being made and that the haircut is now up to 85% and the 3 parties, Etihad, AdiGro and the Hindujas are squabbling about Board and operational roles. What puzzles me is AdiGro's eagerness to invest before a thorough due diligence. Does this group actually have spare cash or are they another Jason Unsworth doing the media rounds for free publicity?

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 23001.html


I have come to take all Indian press reports as speculation at best. I am really surprised the Hindujas want anything to do with this. Other than being an Indian partner that EY could potential control (and that is just a hypothesis), I don’t get why they are even in the mix. And AdiGro is even more bizarre and that as the Chairman and CFO. The one thing I did agree with from the article - now that the election is over, the GOI can move forward quickly. Either let Jet die or find a way to resurrect (meaning indemnify a new buyer from undisclosed liabilities - which the banks can do and then due diligence is less important). Modi won a mandate so he can theoretically do what he wants for a few years.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 12:05 am

Below is the latest update on the Jet saga. Banks will give 2 more weeks before filing for bankruptcy. There are now 2 investors....Etihad at 24.9%, NIIF at 19.9% but NIIF's offer is conditional on a 3rd investor, which is supposed to be the Hindujas. Did the Hindjuas get the message with NG's detention? I think they did. They are not naive like some of the anetters on this forum as to not know what's at play in the background.
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 08360.html
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 12:24 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
The one thing I did agree with from the article - now that the election is over, the GOI can move forward quickly. Either let Jet die or find a way to resurrect (meaning indemnify a new buyer from undisclosed liabilities - which the banks can do and then due diligence is less important). Modi won a mandate so he can theoretically do what he wants for a few years.


What i don't get is the banks willingness to write off 85%. This means that they can recoup 15% (which is OK), but isn't this conditional on their lending new (additional monies) to revive a new Jet 2.0? So, recoup 15%, but place additional $$$$ at risk with a fresh loan. Why is this still a good proposition for the banks?
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 12:50 am

edealinfo wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
The one thing I did agree with from the article - now that the election is over, the GOI can move forward quickly. Either let Jet die or find a way to resurrect (meaning indemnify a new buyer from undisclosed liabilities - which the banks can do and then due diligence is less important). Modi won a mandate so he can theoretically do what he wants for a few years.


What i don't get is the banks willingness to write off 85%. This means that they can recoup 15% (which is OK), but isn't this conditional on their lending new (additional monies) to revive a new Jet 2.0? So, recoup 15%, but place additional $$$$ at risk with a fresh loan. Why is this still a good proposition for the banks?


So it is not totally clear in this article an another one I read, but it appears that the debt that is being forgiven is actually being turned into equity. So there is upside for the banks if Jet turns around. I hear you on the Hindujas but what happened to the other group Agro something or the other.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 1:51 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
The one thing I did agree with from the article - now that the election is over, the GOI can move forward quickly. Either let Jet die or find a way to resurrect (meaning indemnify a new buyer from undisclosed liabilities - which the banks can do and then due diligence is less important). Modi won a mandate so he can theoretically do what he wants for a few years.


What i don't get is the banks willingness to write off 85%. This means that they can recoup 15% (which is OK), but isn't this conditional on their lending new (additional monies) to revive a new Jet 2.0? So, recoup 15%, but place additional $$$$ at risk with a fresh loan. Why is this still a good proposition for the banks?


So it is not totally clear in this article an another one I read, but it appears that the debt that is being forgiven is actually being turned into equity. So there is upside for the banks if Jet turns around. I hear you on the Hindujas but what happened to the other group Agro something or the other.


I recall seeing an article in which the banks had opined that AdiGro, Darwin, and Jason Unsworth are bidders that don't have the "depth" and something else (can't remember); basically saying that the banks have no faith in them. So, for now, everything is hinging on the Hindujas. The problem for the Hindujas is that being in business, and having at least 2 companies in India, the government can easily dig up dirt and charge them for violation of something or the other [there are a Byzantium of laws and it is quite easily to be in violation of something even if things are run kosher, and most businesses in India have made compromises in order to stay in business]. That's why the shot across the bow (NG's detention), in my opinion, sends a very clear message. It would also be smart for them to walk away from the deal while they have the chance as an investment in Jet 2.0 is a high business risk anyway, aside from the political risk which would be significantly higher. I mean Ashok Leyland, Gulf Oil and Catholic Syrian Bank are part of the Hinduja Group. Would they want to put that on the line for the sake of Jet? I think not! Heck, they were even tied to the Bofors scandal. And, they even own the Hinduja Bank in Switzerland (whose money have they stashed there, knowingly or unknowingly?). If someone really wants to go after them, there could be a number of angles.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:32 am

edealinfo wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

What i don't get is the banks willingness to write off 85%. This means that they can recoup 15% (which is OK), but isn't this conditional on their lending new (additional monies) to revive a new Jet 2.0? So, recoup 15%, but place additional $$$$ at risk with a fresh loan. Why is this still a good proposition for the banks?


So it is not totally clear in this article an another one I read, but it appears that the debt that is being forgiven is actually being turned into equity. So there is upside for the banks if Jet turns around. I hear you on the Hindujas but what happened to the other group Agro something or the other.


I recall seeing an article in which the banks had opined that AdiGro, Darwin, and Jason Unsworth are bidders that don't have the "depth" and something else (can't remember); basically saying that the banks have no faith in them. So, for now, everything is hinging on the Hindujas. The problem for the Hindujas is that being in business, and having at least 2 companies in India, the government can easily dig up dirt and charge them for violation of something or the other [there are a Byzantium of laws and it is quite easily to be in violation of something even if things are run kosher, and most businesses in India have made compromises in order to stay in business]. That's why the shot across the bow (NG's detention), in my opinion, sends a very clear message. It would also be smart for them to walk away from the deal while they have the chance as an investment in Jet 2.0 is a high business risk anyway, aside from the political risk which would be significantly higher. I mean Ashok Leyland, Gulf Oil and Catholic Syrian Bank are part of the Hinduja Group. Would they want to put that on the line for the sake of Jet? I think not! Heck, they were even tied to the Bofors scandal. And, they even own the Hinduja Bank in Switzerland (whose money have they stashed there, knowingly or unknowingly?). If someone really wants to go after them, there could be a number of angles.


And maybe they were secretly Nazis too.

I mean, do you have any basis for chasing down rabbit holes of dirt on them? Is there any proof anyone is digging into them because of 9W?
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:48 am

Antarius wrote:

I mean, do you have any basis for chasing down rabbit holes of dirt on them? Is there any proof anyone is digging into them because of 9W?


First, I am not accusing anybody of anything. You are completely missing the point. What I am saying is that in India, it is easy to open up investigations against any business and the more prominent the businesses are, the easier it is.

Check in 2 weeks from now and you will see that Hindujas will have backed out.(and then you can wonder why...……...oh, wait a minute, wouldn't it be that their analysis indicated that the business is not viable or some reason along those lines?
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:53 am

edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:

I mean, do you have any basis for chasing down rabbit holes of dirt on them? Is there any proof anyone is digging into them because of 9W?


First, I am not accusing anybody of anything. You are completely missing the point. What I am saying is that in India, it is easy to open up investigations against any business.

Check in 2 weeks from now and you will see that Hindujas backed out.(and then you can wonder why)


And then you'll draw conclusions about it that reinforce your supposedly innocent statements. Omg the Hidujas backed out.. let's speculate wildly!!

It is easy to open investigations anywhere in the world. My point is, unless you have evidence that this is or may happen, stop bringing it up. Have you considered the elephant in the room? - that 9W is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint?

Otherwise, sure, let's speculate wildly. Maybe the hindujas are the descendants of Augusto Pinochet and Moputo Sese Seko and they wont bid because they are terrified we will find out.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:56 am

Antarius wrote:
Have you considered the elephant in the room? - that 9W is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint?


If it is so obvious that "Jet is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint" why do you think the Hindujas went to Abu Dhabi and met with Etihad and SBI there to consider an investment in the first place? You think they just made up their mind just like that?
Last edited by edealinfo on Tue May 28, 2019 3:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:58 am

edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Have you considered the elephant in the room? - that 9W is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint?


If it is so obvious that "Jet is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint" why do you think the Hindujas went to Abu Dhabi and met with Etihad and SBI there to consider an investment?


It is worth finding out. Maybe it is maybe not.

But if the answer is not, then it doesnt make it a tin foil conspiracy about a new world order penalizing their other companies to keep them away from the apple (whoops, 9W)
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 4:00 am

Antarius wrote:

It is worth finding out. Maybe it is maybe not.



In a normal business world they would do that, i.e., "find out", in your words, in advance of an important meeting. You don't go into an important meeting blind sighted. they certainly wouldn't have gone to the meeting if it was so obvious that "Jet is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint"
 
Antarius
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 4:07 am

edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:

It is worth finding out. Maybe it is maybe not.



In a normal business world they would do that, i.e., "find out", in your words, in advance of an important meeting. You don't go into an important meeting blind sighted. they certainly wouldn't have gone to the meeting if it was so obvious that "Jet is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint"


I give up. There is no logic capable here.

There is a reason the India threads are the barrel scraping bottom level of discourse. It's basically an opinion forum with nothing to back it up.
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 4:13 am

Antarius wrote:
It's basically an opinion forum with nothing to back it up.


Do you realize that SpiceJet is getting 40 ex-Jet planes in less than 60 days [FACT]. No other airline in the world has taken up so many planes in such a short period [FACT]. It is no mean feat [FACT]. A lot had to happen [FACT]. It is also an enormous gamble [FACT]. If Jet doesn't resurrect, SpiceJet has hit the lottery for its daring move [FACT]. If jet revives, its curtains for SpiceJet [FACT]. There is only 1 winner here and the stakes are really high [FACT]. Do you really think companies on opposite side of the coin, lie low in the background waiting to see what happens? Really??
 
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unrave
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 11:40 am

edealinfo wrote:

Do you realize that SpiceJet is getting 40 ex-Jet planes in less than 60 days [FACT]. - YES
No other airline in the world has taken up so many planes in such a short period [FACT]. - CITATION NEEDED
It is no mean feat [FACT]. - OPINION
A lot had to happen [FACT]. - OPINION
It is also an enormous gamble [FACT].- OPINION
If Jet doesn't resurrect, SpiceJet has hit the lottery for its daring move [FACT]. OPINION
If jet revives, its curtains for SpiceJet [FACT]. OPINION
There is only 1 winner here and the stakes are really high [FACT]. OPINION


Go easy on these unsubstantiated rants and participate in good faith,
Denial of racism is as egregious as racism itself
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 12:03 pm

SpiceJet made a profit. They fly 737s, so have an easy time inducting new aircraft and highering unpaid Jet pilots.

The winners are Indigo and SpiceJet. Because of SpiceJet, Jet's missed capacity is reinstated quickly. This help other Indian business such as hotels. That is a good thing.

Lightsaber
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edealinfo
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 12:47 pm

unrave wrote:
edealinfo wrote:

Do you realize that SpiceJet is getting 40 ex-Jet planes in less than 60 days [FACT]. - YES
No other airline in the world has taken up so many planes in such a short period [FACT]. - CITATION NEEDED
It is no mean feat [FACT]. - OPINION
A lot had to happen [FACT]. - OPINION
It is also an enormous gamble [FACT].- OPINION
If Jet doesn't resurrect, SpiceJet has hit the lottery for its daring move [FACT]. OPINION
If jet revives, its curtains for SpiceJet [FACT]. OPINION
There is only 1 winner here and the stakes are really high [FACT]. OPINION


Go easy on these unsubstantiated rants and participate in good faith,

Respectfully, what you have classified as “opinion” could at worst be considered “logical inference”. My issue with others is that they won’t allow for logical inference, “reading between the lines”, and noticing the “writing on the wall” ((NG’s detention in the last instance).

To bolster my earlier thoughts here is an article from today’s newspaper (now you may realize why a revival of Jet would cut into Spicejet. There is huge money at play. 40 ex Jet planes are not pocket change.

And if you think airlines don’t act against their competitors, think of Jet and the 5/20 rule. NG wasn’t sitting on the sidelines at that time waiting for the competition to eat him alive. A lot goes on in the background that Antarius and others may not know and regretfully, may not want others to logically infer based on available information

I also reaffirm my statement that between Jet and SpiceJet, there can only be 1 winner so one’s Interests hurts the other and vice versa

“Thanks to Jet Airways’ plum airport slots, SpiceJet hopes for a flying FY20”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.financ ... 1293/lite/

 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1070
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 2:33 pm

Antarius wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Antarius wrote:

It is worth finding out. Maybe it is maybe not.



In a normal business world they would do that, i.e., "find out", in your words, in advance of an important meeting. You don't go into an important meeting blind sighted. they certainly wouldn't have gone to the meeting if it was so obvious that "Jet is a tangled mess of failure and may not be worth the time and effort from a business case standpoint"


I give up. There is no logic capable here.

There is a reason the India threads are the barrel scraping bottom level of discourse. It's basically an opinion forum with nothing to back it up.


Antarius with all due respect I think you are misunderstanding the purpose of these threads. It is meant to be a discussion. People analyze announced facts as well as speculate what might happen in the future. This very thread started as speculation but was based in enough fact that the discussion progressed for months. You obviously can't source the future actions of people/companies. What you hope is that people at least build an argument that is reasonable. The issue in this thread is that people name call other posters and attack them when they disagree with them rather than engage in dialog with them (or ignore them).

Your list of 7 items all had points worthy of discussion - I would have perhaps phrased things differently. Lohani is a govt official. Analyzing his actions, skills and motives is totally in the scope of this forum. Personally, I think Lohani did a lot of good at AI (the DEL hub and US nonstops were a great idea). But in the end AI is still AI, and it wasn't Lohani's best day asking for slots that Jet didn't own and a private company had no obligation to give to AI. Also, people who want to analyze the GOI's relationship with Spice is also within scope. Remember the GOI favoring an airline does not mean anything illegal happened. Governments favor supporters all the time. And Spice publishing that pro-Modi ad just added fuel to the fire. In the end, I can't think of one poster on this forum that has publicly identified themselves as an employee of a airline or working for the Indian aviation ministry. So why should anyone take comments about Indian aviation so personally? It is just a forum.

I look forward to hearing your opinions on future posts (especially when you disagree with me).
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1070
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 2:48 pm

lightsaber wrote:
SpiceJet made a profit. They fly 737s, so have an easy time inducting new aircraft and highering unpaid Jet pilots.

The winners are Indigo and SpiceJet. Because of SpiceJet, Jet's missed capacity is reinstated quickly. This help other Indian business such as hotels. That is a good thing.

Lightsaber


Has international capacity also been made up. I think tourist arrivals form the UK and. France etc will drop. Which will hurt hotels etc. Also are the airlines over saturating the big cities, meaning everyone flying BOM-DEL instead of connecting more points to BOM?
 
User avatar
lightsaber
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Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 3:52 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
SpiceJet made a profit. They fly 737s, so have an easy time inducting new aircraft and highering unpaid Jet pilots.

The winners are Indigo and SpiceJet. Because of SpiceJet, Jet's missed capacity is reinstated quickly. This help other Indian business such as hotels. That is a good thing.

Lightsaber


Has international capacity also been made up. I think tourist arrivals form the UK and. France etc will drop. Which will hurt hotels etc. Also are the airlines over saturating the big cities, meaning everyone flying BOM-DEL instead of connecting more points to BOM?

International is constrained by not allocating slots quickly and bilaterals. We've seen announced flights where allowed. International traffic tends to be focused at tier 1 cities. So BOM, BLR, and DEL will see the most for now.

Once flights return to Dubai, I expect most of the international pain to be over. Since AI is getting the bulk if the slots, the ball is in their court.

I know a huge number of loyal DL fliers, so I fully expect their flight to help.

Indigo, SpiceJet, Vistara, and GoAir are all willing to help relieve the international shortage. Prior to Jet's shutdown, Indigo was going to invest half their expansion international. The A321NEOs have the range to make a difference.

At this point, the GoI releasing international rights or expanding bilaterals is the constraint. But international is always a fraction of domestic demand.

I fully expect UK and French traffic to have a decline. Hence why we all should want a rapid reintroduction of service. So allow SpiceJet to Dubai instead of having rights sit waiting for AI.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
aarbee
Posts: 406
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:20 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 4:35 pm

edealinfo wrote:
Only in India can one arbitrarily decide a person can't fly. There are no charges against him. They really have no right to hold him back. While it may seem like I am defending chacha, I am not. I am a rules-based persons. That is the essence in any civilized society.


Wow. Have you inside knowledge of the process of what transpired. Or you think India's a Banana republic, with NO law of the land.

edealinfo wrote:
File the charges, then, if warranted, arrest him. Not, arrest him, and then make up charges for the arrest.


When was he arrested? Or we now make up things?

edealinfo wrote:
I think what happened here is that the Government didn't want to take a chance -- Vijay Mallya left presumably before charges were filed. Instead of fixing the system so it doesn't happen again (i.e., frame charges first); the Government is again putting the cart before the horse. In the US, he would have walked, because of wrongful detention and any subsequent charges would have been thrown out on the grounds that a prejudicial intent existed --- i.e., find someone you want to arrest and subsequently make up charges to justify the arrest.

Update:
Now here is what he is being accused of: "Violations of Foreign Direct Investment MAY (emphasis added) have taken place when the Emirates took a stake in JPPL in 2014.

Only in India, you could be detained from travelling because someone thinks something "may" have happened.


So should the government not investigate? question any impropriety ? Or your presumptions trump any process or investigations that are happening or will happen?

- R
Love the AIXes
 
aarbee
Posts: 406
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:20 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 4:43 pm

edealinfo wrote:
This is a very interesting read from a newspaper article on why and how Jet's chariman was detained.

https://www.firstpost.com/business/nare ... 09811.html

Firstpost is NOT a newspaper.
Love the AIXes
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1070
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 5:26 pm

aarbee wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
Only in India can one arbitrarily decide a person can't fly. There are no charges against him. They really have no right to hold him back. While it may seem like I am defending chacha, I am not. I am a rules-based persons. That is the essence in any civilized society.


Wow. Have you inside knowledge of the process of what transpired. Or you think India's a Banana republic, with NO law of the land.

edealinfo wrote:
File the charges, then, if warranted, arrest him. Not, arrest him, and then make up charges for the arrest.


When was he arrested? Or we now make up things?

edealinfo wrote:
I think what happened here is that the Government didn't want to take a chance -- Vijay Mallya left presumably before charges were filed. Instead of fixing the system so it doesn't happen again (i.e., frame charges first); the Government is again putting the cart before the horse. In the US, he would have walked, because of wrongful detention and any subsequent charges would have been thrown out on the grounds that a prejudicial intent existed --- i.e., find someone you want to arrest and subsequently make up charges to justify the arrest.

Update:
Now here is what he is being accused of: "Violations of Foreign Direct Investment MAY (emphasis added) have taken place when the Emirates took a stake in JPPL in 2014.

Only in India, you could be detained from travelling because someone thinks something "may" have happened.


So should the government not investigate? question any impropriety ? Or your presumptions trump any process or investigations that are happening or will happen?

- R


All he is saying is that ti appears that NG was pulled from a plane even though charges have not been filed against him nor has a court ruled that he cannot leave the country. I think you can agree that the Govt usually doesn't have the right to just prevent someone from traveling. And I agree with him. If you were pulled from a flight so publicly and there you didn't know the charges, wouldn't you be confused / annoyed? So edealinfo feels the move seems not based in rule of law. Now your response could be (and I am giving examples not based on facts): (a) actually in India the govt can prevent anyone from leaving the country if they even suspect them of wrong doing. Charges need not be filed or (b) actually he has been charged or (c) etc. Please explain why you feel like it was fair and that the law in India alloys it. That insight would be super helpful to the debate. Any insight?
 
VTORD
Posts: 521
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 6:02 pm

^^Here is a link from Business Standard with the actual news. The first post link quoted is an opinion piece.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 007_1.html

They were deboarded and informed they could not leave the country.
Later, they were allowed to go home and their passports handed over to them after the completion of formalities. According to sources, the couple was stopped on the basis of a look-out circular against Naresh Goyal.


A look out circular is not a trivial thing. This means the government is probably investigating some serious issues. This just appears that the GoI is not taking any chances after the Mallya incident.
Ironically the man who allegedly filed the complaint to prevent NG from leaving seems to be an MLC from NCP of all parties!! :lol:
 
UKFLYER26
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue May 28, 2019 3:14 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 8:12 pm

Long time reader, first time poster, hope this is informative / allowed. Mods remove if not.

Jet Airways (Inc JetLite) 737 Fleet Update

Jet Registration / MSN / Status / New Registration

737-700 (1/4)

VT-SIZ - 33025 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYO

737-800 (32 (+4)/72)

VT-JGR - 34799 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYA
VT-JBF - 35082 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYC
VT-JBD - 35099 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYD
VT-JBE - 35106 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYE
VT-JGQ - 34797 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYF
VT-JGP - 34798 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYG
VT-JFW - 42799 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYH (Currently OE-IBY)
VT-JLE - 33555 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYI
VT-JGS - 34800 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYJ
VT-JGA - 30410 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYK
VT-JTC - 29685 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYM
VT-JFY - 42804 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYN (Currently OE-ICY)
VT-JFL - 39061 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYR

VT-JBM - 36817 - To Smart Avia as VQ-BBV
VT-JBN - 36818 - To Smart Avia as VQ-BBW
VT-JBP - 36819 - To Smart Avia as VQ-BBY
VT-JGF - 29639 - To Jet2 as G-DRTI
VT-JGG - 29668 - To GOL Brazil as PR-GZD
VT-JTE - 37743 - To GOL Brazil as PR-GZE
VT-JTL - 37745 - To GOL Brazil as PR-GZF
VT-JTM - 37746 - To GOL Brazil as PR-GZG

VT-JGK - 32579 - Now N542RL - Most Likely Cargo Conversion
VT-JGE - 32663 - Now N855DM - Most Likely Cargo Conversion
VT-JBH - 35289 - Now OE-IBS - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JTD - 30734 - Now OE-IDC - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JGT - 34801 - Now M-ABLZ - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JBB - 36846 - Now N846AG - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JBC - 36847 - Now N847AG - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JBJ - 36551 - Now N551AG - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JBK - 36553 - Now N553CG - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JGU - 34802 - Now M-ABMA - Unknown Future Operator
VT-JFX - 42800 - Now 2-JFXX - Unknown Future Operator

+ 4 737-800 to Vistara (Registrations / MSN's to be confirmed)

737-900 (1/6)

VT-JGC - 30412 - To SpiceJet as VT-SYL
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 8:33 pm

I was at a jury selection and the judge said that an indictment is merely an accusation of impropriety against the defendant, by the Government , and it was the Government that had to prove “beyond a reasonable doubt” that the person was guilty (as opposed to the defendant proving he is innocent.) I like the process in the West.
I say this because a lot on this forum seem to have a lot of animosity towards NG. Who doesn’t? But, the key issue to me is.... did he do something illegal and is it proven beyond a reasonable doubt?
You don’t want him to be penalized solely for bad business decisions. That, in and of itself, is not a crime.

Ironically no one is even going after NG for his machinations related to public aviation policy ( to the detriment of the Indian public). Think of the 5/20 rule, efforts to derail foreign investment (when the Tata’s wanted to take over Air India in 2000) etc. In matters where impropriety really needs to be checked, no one bothers.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Tue May 28, 2019 9:17 pm

Jet’s lenders are having a problem buying out EXIM Bank’s $30 million outstandings against a charge of 6 777 planes, because 1 plane is impounded by a Dutch court which has already also initiated bankruptcy proceedings.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemi ... 23709.html
 
User avatar
SQ789
Posts: 619
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 1:08 am

Jet seems to have only 20 planes that are not yet returned to lessors but stored. Many of the planes that are already returned to lessors as of Tuesday was the airline's entire 737 MAX and it's ATR 72 along with some 737-800's, 777-300ER and A330. I think that all the remaining planes that are still stored would have been returned to lessors soon.
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
trex8
Posts: 5327
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 1:22 am

edealinfo wrote:
I was at a jury selection and the judge said that an indictment is merely an accusation of impropriety against the defendant, by the Government , and it was the Government that had to prove “beyond a reasonable doubt” that the person was guilty (as opposed to the defendant proving he is innocent.) I like the process in the West.
I say this because a lot on this forum seem to have a lot of animosity towards NG. Who doesn’t? But, the key issue to me is.... did he do something illegal and is it proven beyond a reasonable doubt?
You don’t want him to be penalized solely for bad business decisions. That, in and of itself, is not a crime.

Ironically no one is even going after NG for his machinations related to public aviation policy ( to the detriment of the Indian public). Think of the 5/20 rule, efforts to derail foreign investment (when the Tata’s wanted to take over Air India in 2000) etc. In matters where impropriety really needs to be checked, no one bothers.

There are bad business decisions, there may be negligence and impropriety and failure to conduct business with appropriate fiducial responsibility and there is outright criminal conduct- fraud, theft etc. Beyond reasonable doubt is a high bar and only applies in criminal charges, for civil charges it is the lower threshold of preponderance of evidence. Hence why OJ was not guilty of murder in his criminal case but guilty of wrongful death in the civil case. It is far more likely here there may be civil charges brought forward by creditors than a criminal case by the government.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 1:38 am

Livemint has spiced up a headline from a wire agency feed. I give them credit for the headline (reproduced below). It is almost like advertising for one to read the story. The person who came up with the headline gets credit for creativity though I think it is a bit overstated. There are good facts in the story, though. For instance, one statement says, "Should its (Indigo's) share of departures hit 50% – which seems likely, given forecast 30% growth in capacity over the coming 12 months – the carrier’s passenger share ought to stand a good change of rising towards 60%, at which point its domestic position will be near-impregnable."

"IndiGo, the low-cost conqueror, is now coming for Emirates, Etihad Airways"
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 87672.html
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1070
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 2:18 am

trex8 wrote:
edealinfo wrote:
I was at a jury selection and the judge said that an indictment is merely an accusation of impropriety against the defendant, by the Government , and it was the Government that had to prove “beyond a reasonable doubt” that the person was guilty (as opposed to the defendant proving he is innocent.) I like the process in the West.
I say this because a lot on this forum seem to have a lot of animosity towards NG. Who doesn’t? But, the key issue to me is.... did he do something illegal and is it proven beyond a reasonable doubt?
You don’t want him to be penalized solely for bad business decisions. That, in and of itself, is not a crime.

Ironically no one is even going after NG for his machinations related to public aviation policy ( to the detriment of the Indian public). Think of the 5/20 rule, efforts to derail foreign investment (when the Tata’s wanted to take over Air India in 2000) etc. In matters where impropriety really needs to be checked, no one bothers.

There are bad business decisions, there may be negligence and impropriety and failure to conduct business with appropriate fiducial responsibility and there is outright criminal conduct- fraud, theft etc. Beyond reasonable doubt is a high bar and only applies in criminal charges, for civil charges it is the lower threshold of preponderance of evidence. Hence why OJ was not guilty of murder in his criminal case but guilty of wrongful death in the civil case. It is far more likely here there may be civil charges brought forward by creditors than a criminal case by the government.


Remember the banks also have a fiduciary responsibility. There is a lot of blame to go around for Jet’s failure. But criminal or civil - I dont know. That said, if NG did something illegal then charge him. Why they wouldn’t have charged him before, is beyond me. My gut says he won’t get charged. This was way too public (the govt could have just told him not to leave). Instead he got publicly shamed with no charges. Message sent. IMHO - if NG had not relied on crony capitalism for so long, he probably would have cut a deal much much earlier and sold Jet off (meaning saved it). Instead he kept expecting someone to just give him money. What ever. I hope other airlines in india do not make the same mistake.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 2:36 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
IMHO - if NG had not relied on crony capitalism for so long, he probably would have cut a deal much much earlier and sold Jet off (meaning saved it). Instead he kept expecting someone to just give him money. What ever. I hope other airlines in india do not make the same mistake.


In Feb and March, I was mistakenly of the opinion that there was a 0% chance that Jet would go under given the elections. I had overestimated NG's political clout and underestimated that the Government had the kahunas to stand tall and let Jet fail. Truly, a bold and courageous Government move at the height of the political season, for which I say, hats off!

NG represents the face of crony capitalism having manipulated (or "shaped"..... if you are more sympathetic) aviation policy for so long. 25 years at the helm is a pretty good run. I agree with you that he should have sold out to the Tatas in which case he would have collected a cool $500 million (??) and retired a doyen of the Indian aviation history. Instead he decided to take a calculated gamble, and lost big time.

My guess is that NG was also grooming his son for Jet to largely leave him an inheritance of his creation. Not willing to let go (whether it was his baby(Jet), or the inheritance for his son) may have been the trigger for his downfall.
 
anshabhi
Posts: 2100
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:40 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 10:21 am

Heart touching video of Naresh Goyal flying G8 cattle class
(No pun intended, whatever he deserves better)

https://twitter.com/shukla_tarun/status ... 03361?s=20
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 12:41 pm

anshabhi wrote:
Heart touching video of Naresh Goyal flying G8 cattle class
(No pun intended, whatever he deserves better)

https://twitter.com/shukla_tarun/status ... 03361?s=20


Not making the same mistake as Vijay’s Malaya who lived extravagantly and drew the ire of those who weren’t so fortunate (almost everyone else)

NG’s image consultant must be giving him tips on how to appear publicly after the detention. It is either that or he has wisened up.

His bet best is to lay low, avoid being seen in public (unless he has to), and to quit plotting a return to aviation.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1490
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 1:08 pm

The 4 potential investors in Jet are to meet on May 29 in Mumbai.....Etihad, NIIF, Hindujas and Mudabala ((the last being the Abu Dhabi national investment fund) Etihad will hold about 25 percent and the others 20 percent each. At least that is the proposal under consideration.

separately, I read a report that said that among the top priorities for the new government in the first 100 days is a solution to the Jet issue. I wonder if the Government and Abu Dhabi have worked out a deal in the background. How important is Jet to Etihad? caliguy has suggested that it is quite important.

If Jet revives and gets back it’s prime slots in BOM and DEL, Spicejet will suffer, and Vistara too. No good deed goes unpunished ( remember these 2 carriers brought in aircraft to aid the government in keeping a check on runaway airfares). If Jet revives, it will be a classic case on political risk in business
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7070
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 1:17 pm

edealinfo wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
Heart touching video of Naresh Goyal flying G8 cattle class
(No pun intended, whatever he deserves better)

https://twitter.com/shukla_tarun/status ... 03361?s=20


Not making the same mistake as Vijay’s Malaya who lived extravagantly and drew the ire of those who weren’t so fortunate (almost everyone else)

NG’s image consultant must be giving him tips on how to appear publicly after the detention. It is either that or he has wisened up.

His bet best is to lay low, avoid being seen in public (unless he has to), and to quit plotting a return to aviation.


You know that the traditional escape route is a bus trip to Nepal and to Antigua (throw away Indian PP) and to London on EU country passport, once the extradition drama is over move to Manhattan apartment on US passport. BTW, India doesn't allow dual-citizenship and forces to renounce citizenship but all these jokers have PPs from several countries.

Not sure why they tried F ticket to DXB, beats me.
 
avier
Posts: 868
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 2:31 pm

edealinfo wrote:
If Jet revives and gets back it’s prime slots in BOM and DEL, Spicejet will suffer, and Vistara too. No good deed goes unpunished ( remember these 2 carriers brought in aircraft to aid the government in keeping a check on runaway airfares). If Jet revives, it will be a classic case on political risk in business


Spice will use it's political leverage to ensure the slots it took don't go away. Afterall they didn't take on 40 737's to fly between not-so-lucrative airports. Some rule will come up which says Jet has to forgo the slots due to some reason. Like they suddenly made rules of slots being given to those quickly inducting new planes and the exceptions made for aircrafts having to leave the country to be re-registered.
 
User avatar
unrave
Posts: 2578
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2015 6:37 am

Re: Jet Airways: Shutdown

Wed May 29, 2019 4:36 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:

You know that the traditional escape route is a bus trip to Nepal and to Antigua

There is passport control while crossing Nepal border by road.
Denial of racism is as egregious as racism itself

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