Cathay Pacific have been taking delivery of a lot of new equipment lately, and still have more than 30 new A350/777X aircraft coming online over the new few years. What are they doing with all these planes? I know they've opened up some new OW connections in North America and Europe, do they have further expansion plans, or are some of these new planes replacements for older 777s and A330s?

The 777X won't even come until 2021, and it's not like they'll just get all 21 at once, either.

Short term:
3x 773A replacing the last 3x 772A
6x A333 is (not confirmed) going to be transferred to KA, B-HLM/N/O/T/U/V, replacing KA's B-HLA/B/C/E (Which are some fairly old A333).
The last 6 A359 should be coming in before 2020, as is most of their A35K. (See https://www.cathaypacific.com/content/d ... ort_zh.pdf p.17)

Some of their 77W are leased, so I'm guessing that once 777X comes in, some of those 77W will be return to lessor. They'll also need a plane to eventually replace those 17x 773A (Most likely the oldest 77W will get reconfig into "regional" configuration and get "abuse").

Not much news network-wise. I'm guessing CX right now is somewhat focus on getting the UO acquisition done. If HX goes out of business (Which right now is 50-50 IMHO), CX will probably need to up capacity on a few routes (mainly Japan, since there never seems to be enough seats going there ex-HKG) also.

Hopefully they add DFW soon, it's a route that is still missing. I know AA serves HKG from DFW but the asian population in Dallas/Fort Worth has been increasing lately and now I feel there is enough of premium traffic of a 2nd flight out of DFW-HKG that CX can serve easily!

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

CX pulled out of Dusseldorf not too long ago, doubtful they will restart anytime soon.

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

What's wrong with KA serving the like of KUL/PUS/FUK/HAN/CNX/PNH/DAC/CCU/BLR? It's the exact hard product and soft product you're getting on KA compare to CX anyway.

South America is VERY unlikely. No point of using their own metal when LATAM dominates that region along with AA.
CX used to fly to RUH, but dropped that route. IIRC it largely carry Filipino traffic (local O&D is almost zero), and after PR started their own non-stop MNL-RUH/JED, CX simply got out as there's no point of fighting those relatively low yield traffic.
KHI should be back sometimes, but I would say CX will probably wait for the situation in Pakistan to calm down even more first.

For Europe - CX used to fly to DUS (dropped), and also Moscow (again, dropped in 2015). No point of fighting TK fortress at IST, nor flying their own metal to HEL (AY serves HKG 2x daily right now). CX couldn't make CPH work, so I don't see ARN doing much better, either.
As for VIE and MUC - the former was dropped by OS, while the latter is well served by LH. CX codeshare with LH Group anyway, so it's just as easy for CX to let LH take care of the intra-Europe connecting leg.
For Canada, I would argue that YYC would come before YUL. Neither are exactly routes that you'll see soon, though (and if anyone is flying it, it'll be AC).
DEN? Why? Zero O&D and it's a UA fortress.
IAH? More likely to see UA starting that.
MIA? Keep dreaming.
PHL? Not enough demand with all the leakages.
DFW? Well served by AA as-is. CX can use their metal better elsewhere.
MEX? Can any plane make it that far non-stop given MEX altitude? It's longer than LAX-SIN for comparison.

More frequencies to BOS?

HK airport is full intil 2023/4 new runway anyway - so unless HK Airlines goes under/ reduces flights most aircraft deliveries until then are replacements (ie. fair number of the 777-300ER will be returned to lessor, replaced by A35K and B779)

The A359 has allowed Cathay to fly to many new and distant European cities. The 77W allowed them to launch all kinds of east coast and midwest Canadian and American cities. The A350 is both expansion and replacement of the 77W fleet. The 777-9 is really for JFK and LHR with First Class since no A350-1000 have a First Class cabin. The 77W fleet will be around for quite a while even if some are returned to the leasing firms since Cathay has such a huge fleet of them. Betting Cathay management is glad they didn't buy A380's.

zakuivcustom wrote:

MIA? Keep dreaming.

How exactly is it a dream when CX themselves said they want to fly to MIA. They just cannot figure out the aircraft situation.

According to this thread it's growth galore for CX. You guys are forgetting the precarious situation the airline is in. They have quite a bit of older 773 which should be on their way out in the next 5-10 years and 333 too. Don't expect much growth from CX, looks more like replacement.

yulexpansion wrote:

According to this thread it's growth galore for CX. You guys are forgetting the precarious situation the airline is in. They have quite a bit of older 773 which should be on their way out in the next 5-10 years and 333 too. Don't expect much growth from CX, looks more like replacement.

CX definitely uses A330-300 and 777-300(no ER) regionally big time. The only practical solution they currently have the A350-900 which could fly in a derated engine with a regional configuration. Another solution could be 787-10, this could be close to a 777 in seats. Choices choices all options Cathay has are one many airlines would love to have.

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Really? You would have thought Wellington would be on the list before Darwin (aircraft performance permitting).

jfk777 wrote:

The A359 has allowed Cathay to fly to many new and distant European cities. The 77W allowed them to launch all kinds of east coast and midwest Canadian and American cities. The A350 is both expansion and replacement of the 77W fleet. The 777-9 is really for JFK and LHR with First Class since no A350-1000 have a First Class cabin. The 77W fleet will be around for quite a while even if some are returned to the leasing firms since Cathay has such a huge fleet of them. Betting Cathay management is glad they didn't buy A380's.

The ironic part is both IAD and SEA are on A359 (IAD started off with A35K, but I guess CX realized quickly that it's too much capacity). A359/35K is definitely the workhorse right now.

Otherwise, if there's any good decision the former CX management made, it's their "refusal" to get any A380 (or B748). In hindsight it definitely look like a very smart move.

yulexpansion wrote:

You guys are forgetting the precarious situation the airline is in

What precarious situation? The #1 key factor of CX bleeding money aka the stupid fuel hedge contract is over. They are back in the black for FY2018 anyway and is looking to stay that way unless something drastic happen (i.e. fuel price spiking to twice the current price).

Not to mention, they brought out (if everything goes according to plan) a LCC competitor in UO, while UO's sister HX is going to downsize if not go out of business completely. Competitions at HKG is about to become even less.

jfk777 wrote:

CX definitely uses A330-300 and 777-300(no ER) regionally big time. The only practical solution they currently have the A350-900 which could fly in a derated engine with a regional configuration. Another solution could be 787-10, this could be close to a 777 in seats. Choices choices all options Cathay has are one many airlines would love to have.

Not too different than SQ anyway - and SQ ended up splitting their regional fleet between 787-10 and 359 (in Regional config). Nothing is stopping CX from buying A339neo, either

yulexpansion wrote:

They have quite a bit of older 773 which should be on their way out in the next 5-10 years

When they're introducing second hand 773 of the similar age?

Michael

zakuivcustom wrote:

MEX? Can any plane make it that far non-stop given MEX altitude? It's longer than LAX-SIN for comparison.

CX have indicated intention to fly to MEX with 779.

Yep - to me the most interesting thing will be the regional fleet replacement. For KA, A321NEO already ordered, and I think will also replace some A330 (once 3rd runway open) for more frequency

CX/ KA have shown that they are happy to run B773 (regional) and A330 until 'end of life' (so 20-25 years old) They still have ability to not choose a replacement for a while (retire old A330, replace newer A330 flying on longer haul routes with A350, reconfigure those A330 to regional flying)

Question then is once that runs out, and they really need new regional widebodies - A330NEO/ A350R/ B787-10/ B797? All have pros and cons, none is an ideal replacement for the B773A/ A330 fleet (too much range/ weight, or too small) Even the A330NEO is optimised for 8 hour flights, not the 1-5 hours that CX/ KA need.

My bet would be on a mix of A321 and B787-10

c933103 wrote:

CX have indicated intention to fly to MEX with 779.

Have they ? Planning to go there and back empty ?

If and when Iran opens up to the world, I can definitely foresee CX operating 4wk HKG-IKA nonstop with an A333 sized aircraft as demand from there to China ICN BKK Australia is growing along with p2p.

When the A321Neos arrive, I won’t be surprised if routes such as KHI, ISB and some second tier Indian cities get launched with this aircraft type (operated by CX Dragon).

As far as new long haul routes are concerned, HKG-YYC-MIA with an A359 4wk + HKG-ARN (seasonal 4wk A359) + HKG-IAH 5wk A359 (this can work for CX despite it being a Star hub airport as they will cater to passengers with Houston being their final destination to/from Asia)

zakuivcustom wrote:

MIA? Keep dreaming.

This one's off... CX have been atypically vocal about its desire to serve MIA.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/busine ... 34607.html

One can dream;

https://www.anna.aero/2018/12/04/birmin ... -the-week/

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Darwin is definitely a route that should be done by Cathay Dragon... An A330-300 and that’s their smallest aircraft, is over kill for Darwin. I think the market would be best served by a Cathay Dragon A320Neo...

Wellington would be best done via Australia as I believe the runway is too short for direct service to Asia. Hence why Singapore goes via Melbourne.

But which port though would be the question as I understand the bilateral is maxed out on the Hong Kong end for Australia...

Definitely think Moscow should the next European destination Cathay flies to, 1.biggest European city, 2.Home of one world carrier S7 (domodedovo) 3. Recovering Russian economy and more Russian tourists especially in south east Asia. Should be done 5wk or maybe even daily A359.

NBO would be a good route for CX as there's very good O&D traffic and a lot of Chinese business too. KQ used to fly HKG via BKK but they dropped it so there's no one serving that market now. Chinese traffic is mostly via KQ and CZ from Guangzhou and possibly connections from Ethiopian who have a robust Chinese network. Problem is the planes Cathay have may be too big for this route.

zeke wrote:

c933103 wrote:

CX have indicated intention to fly to MEX with 779.

Have they ? Planning to go there and back empty ?

https://mexico-now.com/index.php/articl ... oeing-777x
They announced it when their representative was at Mexico City

flyingisthebest wrote:

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Darwin is definitely a route that should be done by Cathay Dragon... An A330-300 and that’s their smallest aircraft, is over kill for Darwin. I think the market would be best served by a Cathay Dragon A320Neo...

Wellington would be best done via Australia as I believe the runway is too short for direct service to Asia. Hence why Singapore goes via Melbourne.

But which port though would be the question as I understand the bilateral is maxed out on the Hong Kong end for Australia...

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

smi0006 wrote:

flyingisthebest wrote:

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Darwin is definitely a route that should be done by Cathay Dragon... An A330-300 and that’s their smallest aircraft, is over kill for Darwin. I think the market would be best served by a Cathay Dragon A320Neo...

Wellington would be best done via Australia as I believe the runway is too short for direct service to Asia. Hence why Singapore goes via Melbourne.

But which port though would be the question as I understand the bilateral is maxed out on the Hong Kong end for Australia...

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

If a carrier without transit traffic at SZX can make it work then Cathay group should be able to do so too - Although the carrier received something like 15 Million USD a year subsidy from SZX airport to launch the route

Increasing from 7 to 11 weekly on the Manchester route is possible. Even got as far as putting the flights into GDS for winter just gone before quickly removing them again as they opted for an upgrade to the A351 instead of extra flights (flights were CX217/218 arriving MAN 1730 departing approx 2000).

With the A351 now going with circa 92% loads, the only way CX can now increase MAN is to add flights given the A351 is not much smaller than the B77W seat wise.

Where next in Europe for CX? For Eastern Europe definitely Moscow resumption

People seems don't understand, airlines send representatives to all over the world ALL the TIME to talk to local airports, to tour around the facilities and talk to local officials. Especially CX, with its reputation, it goes to everywhere to seek opportunities. But it does not mean CX will definitely fly to there, or even have TRUE intention to fly to there. If CX say to Miami airport that, oh we are coming for a casual visit, or they can say that we are sending a delegation to explore further opportunities, do you think Miami Airport will treat the CX team any differently? -- I doubt you would think Miami Airport will roll out red carpet if CX tell them their true intention is to have a work holiday while have few minutes in the airport.

People also needs to understand CX's parent company Swire, is or had been investing very heavily on property market, Swire had some interests in few years back in a Miami project, and Swire has some Caribbean connection too, it is very natural for Swire to use CX as a potential bargaining chip while dealing with Miami locals. Local news or PR for CX as a potential first Asian long haul comes to Miami is very positive for both Miami Airports, local political figures as well as CX and Swire.

In the end, business is business. PR machine can only goes so far. Whether CX will open Miami and/or Mexico City or not, it will be a business decision. But there is no way for a local airport to refuse a delegation from airline A or B or C to come to visit and discuss any potentials. 99% of the time, potentials are, potentials.

After all, a field trip is a field trip. Nothing wrong to pretend how serious they are. It is a DYKWIA moment for CX visiting airports like Miami or Mexico City. The seeds have not been sown yet, no fruit would grow without the soil (market) and care (subsidy).

c933103 wrote:

https://mexico-now.com/index.php/articl ... oeing-777x
They announced it when their representative was at Mexico City

Flying to an airport that was cancelled with a change of government ?

The reason Cathay didn't get A380 or 748 is they carry lots if freight on those 77W. Last year flying from HKG to LHR, watching them load the front cargo compartment it was pallet after pallet of cargo. It seems the passenger baggage all fit in the rear compartment of a 77W. An A380 is a very poor freighter as a passenger plane, a 77W is a huge hauler of cargo.

flyingisthebest wrote:

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Darwin is definitely a route that should be done by Cathay Dragon... An A330-300 and that’s their smallest aircraft, is over kill for Darwin. I think the market would be best served by a Cathay Dragon A320Neo...

Wellington would be best done via Australia as I believe the runway is too short for direct service to Asia. Hence why Singapore goes via Melbourne.

But which port though would be the question as I understand the bilateral is maxed out on the Hong Kong end for Australia...

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

eamondzhang wrote:

yulexpansion wrote:

They have quite a bit of older 773 which should be on their way out in the next 5-10 years

When they're introducing second hand 773 of the similar age?

Michael

Their oldest 773s are from 1998.

nairobby wrote:

NBO would be a good route for CX as there's very good O&D traffic and a lot of Chinese business too. KQ used to fly HKG via BKK but they dropped it so there's no one serving that market now. Chinese traffic is mostly via KQ and CZ from Guangzhou and possibly connections from Ethiopian who have a robust Chinese network. Problem is the planes Cathay have may be too big for this route.

CAN is THE center of African trade in PRC, not HKG. ET doesn't even fly all their flights to HKG non-stop (3/wk via BKK) for that same reason, compare to 10/wk at CAN. Meanwhile, Rwandair is planning to fly to CAN (via BOM) instead of HKG for that same reason. I'm actually also impressed by those flight on SV (Saudia) and WY (Oman Air), neither of which fly passenger flights to HKG (Saudia Cargo does fly to HKG).

Morgenstern1234 wrote:

Definitely think Moscow should the next European destination Cathay flies to, 1.biggest European city, 2.Home of one world carrier S7 (domodedovo) 3. Recovering Russian economy and more Russian tourists especially in south east Asia. Should be done 5wk or maybe even daily A359.

When nobody was able to make that route work so far? CX flew and dropped MOW. HX tried (to VKO) and they dropped it (Although it doesn't help that HX is a mess). S7 barely serve HKG as-is also.

smi0006 wrote:

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

Why should they? It's additional cost for KA to station people in Australia, and KA cost base AFAIK is not that much different than CX cost base anyway.

smi0006 wrote:

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

A321neo...KA is not getting any A320neo. No, even if the UO merger go through, the UO A320(neo)s doesn't have the additional fuel tanks IIRC.

zakuivcustom wrote:

nairobby wrote:

NBO would be a good route for CX as there's very good O&D traffic and a lot of Chinese business too. KQ used to fly HKG via BKK but they dropped it so there's no one serving that market now. Chinese traffic is mostly via KQ and CZ from Guangzhou and possibly connections from Ethiopian who have a robust Chinese network. Problem is the planes Cathay have may be too big for this route.

CAN is THE center of African trade in PRC, not HKG. ET doesn't even fly all their flights to HKG non-stop (3/wk via BKK) for that same reason, compare to 10/wk at CAN. Meanwhile, Rwandair is planning to fly to CAN (via BOM) instead of HKG for that same reason. I'm actually also impressed by those flight on SV (Saudia) and WY (Oman Air), neither of which fly passenger flights to HKG (Saudia Cargo does fly to HKG).

Morgenstern1234 wrote:

Definitely think Moscow should the next European destination Cathay flies to, 1.biggest European city, 2.Home of one world carrier S7 (domodedovo) 3. Recovering Russian economy and more Russian tourists especially in south east Asia. Should be done 5wk or maybe even daily A359.

When nobody was able to make that route work so far? CX flew and dropped MOW. HX tried (to VKO) and they dropped it (Although it doesn't help that HX is a mess). S7 barely serve HKG as-is also.

smi0006 wrote:

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

Why should they? It's additional cost for KA to station people in Australia, and KA cost base AFAIK is not that much different than CX cost base anyway.

smi0006 wrote:

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

A321neo...KA is not getting any A320neo. No, even if the UO merger go through, the UO A320(neo)s doesn't have the additional fuel tanks IIRC.

But in my opinion Moscow would be the most logical choice for a new destination in Europe, just look how many PRC airlines are in Moscow now, and there’s even a direct Shenzhen moscow flight operated by China Southern (4x weekly from May to October). Other possible Europe destinations for CX in Europe like Prague, Stockholm, Munich I don’t think would work.

I know I’ve said some crazy things but unfortunately even I know CX won’t fly to DFW as it’s perfectly served by AA.Who knows though they might do it, but I feel like that would ruin AAs partnership with CZ.

I know I’ve said some crazy things but unfortunately even I know CX won’t fly to DFW as it’s perfectly served by AA.Who knows though they might do it, but I feel like that would ruin AAs partnership with CZ.

zeke wrote:

c933103 wrote:

https://mexico-now.com/index.php/articl ... oeing-777x
They announced it when their representative was at Mexico City

Flying to an airport that was cancelled with a change of government ?

Actually what are MEX doing with their airports now?

a7ala wrote:

Luisvalero wrote:

From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)

Really? You would have thought Wellington would be on the list before Darwin (aircraft performance permitting).

I'd say Christchurch year round before adding Wellington. Currently only SQ and CZ flies to CHC from Asia year round.

The problem with Wellington is its runway restriction which can only be overcome by launching a 5th freedom flight from a nearby city that also has open sky agreement with Hong Kong (like SQ did with CBR and now MEL). In that case, they could put the A333 (cheaper start up capital).

I think CX will spend the next year or two optimizing its network with UO, assuming the acquisition is completed successfully. Some CX/KA destinations may be transferred to UO in full (e.g. Okinawa, Taichung, Tokushima, etc.). It would make sense for UO to transfer its HND slots to CX, and CX may transfer some (not all) of its NRT slots to UO. Destinations such as Tokyo, Osaka and Bangkok can sustain both mainline and LCC operations so both CX/KA and UO will remain there, but flight schedules and slots may be swapped between them to optimize yields. CX can transfer some of the older A333 to UO too for high density destinations such as NRT.

For North America, I would expect CX to continue its cautious growth, slowly adding frequencies and capacity to existing destinations. It is going to increase SEA and IAD to 5/weekly. If current trajectory continues, these may become daily soon. And I hope to see YVR becoming 3/daily and YYZ becoming 2/daily. As for new destinations, seems that DFW makes most sense. It would work with some schedule coordination with AA, and it can use A359.

For Europe, may be BHX with A359? And more expansion in India? There can be growth in frequency (e.g. Hyderabad daily) and destinations (e.g. Ahmadabad, etc.)

Lastly, eventually the 773 and A333 need to be replaced. And I think the A339 will be a good replacement. It would be a cheaper aircraft than A359 and it will require less crew training and maintenance changes.

raylee67 wrote:

For North America, I would expect CX to continue its cautious growth, slowly adding frequencies and capacity to existing destinations. It is going to increase SEA and IAD to 5/weekly. If current trajectory continues, these may become daily soon. And I hope to see YVR becoming 3/daily and YYZ becoming 2/daily. As for new destinations, seems that DFW makes most sense. It would work with some schedule coordination with AA, and it can use A359.

SEA will be daily in the summer actually (You're correct that it's going "only" to 5/wk in the Winter):
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... -july-2019

Wouldn't surprised me if HKG-SEA goes daily year-round eventually, while IAD goes slowly from 4->5->6->7.

raylee67 wrote:

CX can transfer some of the older A333 to UO too for high density destinations such as NRT.

I doubt this. KA badly need those A333 themselves (Their oldest A333 are, well, old). Plus it's a huge jump in cost from operating A320/321 to A333.

raylee67 wrote:

Some CX/KA destinations may be transferred to UO in full (e.g. Okinawa, Taichung, Tokushima, etc.).

I don't know about RMQ - there are enough transit traffic I assumed for KA to keep flights to/from there.

But otherwise, yes, TKS, along with OKJ/YGJ (if HX goes under), and perhaps KMQ (Which I'm surprised is flown by CX instead of KA...but I guess KA just doesn't have enough plane). Secondary Japan is definitely a place where CX can fully utilized UO, given UO's dominant position in that area as-is.

raylee67 wrote:

For Europe, may be BHX with A359? And more expansion in India? There can be growth in frequency (e.g. Hyderabad daily) and destinations (e.g. Ahmadabad, etc.)

Lastly, eventually the 773 and A333 need to be replaced. And I think the A339 will be a good replacement. It would be a cheaper aircraft than A359 and it will require less crew training and maintenance changes.

The traffic rights to India have been used up.

Morgenstern1234 wrote:

zakuivcustom wrote:

nairobby wrote:

NBO would be a good route for CX as there's very good O&D traffic and a lot of Chinese business too. KQ used to fly HKG via BKK but they dropped it so there's no one serving that market now. Chinese traffic is mostly via KQ and CZ from Guangzhou and possibly connections from Ethiopian who have a robust Chinese network. Problem is the planes Cathay have may be too big for this route.

CAN is THE center of African trade in PRC, not HKG. ET doesn't even fly all their flights to HKG non-stop (3/wk via BKK) for that same reason, compare to 10/wk at CAN. Meanwhile, Rwandair is planning to fly to CAN (via BOM) instead of HKG for that same reason. I'm actually also impressed by those flight on SV (Saudia) and WY (Oman Air), neither of which fly passenger flights to HKG (Saudia Cargo does fly to HKG).

Morgenstern1234 wrote:

Definitely think Moscow should the next European destination Cathay flies to, 1.biggest European city, 2.Home of one world carrier S7 (domodedovo) 3. Recovering Russian economy and more Russian tourists especially in south east Asia. Should be done 5wk or maybe even daily A359.

When nobody was able to make that route work so far? CX flew and dropped MOW. HX tried (to VKO) and they dropped it (Although it doesn't help that HX is a mess). S7 barely serve HKG as-is also.

smi0006 wrote:

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

Why should they? It's additional cost for KA to station people in Australia, and KA cost base AFAIK is not that much different than CX cost base anyway.

smi0006 wrote:

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

A321neo...KA is not getting any A320neo. No, even if the UO merger go through, the UO A320(neo)s doesn't have the additional fuel tanks IIRC.

But in my opinion Moscow would be the most logical choice for a new destination in Europe, just look how many PRC airlines are in Moscow now, and there’s even a direct Shenzhen moscow flight operated by China Southern (4x weekly from May to October). Other possible Europe destinations for CX in Europe like Prague, Stockholm, Munich I don’t think would work.

Mainland Chinese are taught to love Russia and the country was the only friend during 1950 to 1970s. So many Chinese who start to travel sees Russia as a fond memories and friend. That is why so many routes from mainland China to Russia.

In another hand, Hong Kong Chinese grew up loving the UK and the USA (thus USSR is not loved), then you have the Mainlanders immigated to Hong Kong who escaped communist China in 1970s to 1990s hate anything to do with communism (thus no love for Russia).

Perceptions and feelings are strong enough for Mainland tourists (mostly first time or second time overseas visitors) going to Moscow to follow their passion from their youth. It does not work for Hong Kong market.

smi0006 wrote:

flyingisthebest wrote:

Luisvalero wrote:

DRW via Cathay Dragon makes sense, especially with a A320, but even then - is the traffic there?

On a sidenote in suprised KA hasn’t taken over CNS from CX.

CNS is long enough require flatbed product in business class. KA will stay regional as long as possible. Even Darwin would be a stretch, though more likely than CNS.

chonetsao wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

flyingisthebest wrote:

CNS is long enough require flatbed product in business class. KA will stay regional as long as possible. Even Darwin would be a stretch, though more likely than CNS.

True and CNS is tagged to BNE. BNE is a market CX flies to daily nonstop and can’t see them switching the 3rd largest city in Australia to the Cathay Dragon product.

If there was an Asian carrier that I believe would have the highest chance of succeeding at Darwin it would be Cathay Dragon. The connecting opportunities would be just as good at Hong Kong as SilkAir/Singapore at SIN...

Darwin is a very small city at only 130000 people (rounded) There is only so much demand...

I don't see a reason why CX can't serve DFW. Yes AA already serves DFW-HKG but I am sure there is sufficient demand. DFW and HKG are both oneworld hubs and is well connected to other oneworld hubs SYD(QF), NRT (JL/AA), DOH (QR) and LHR (BA/AA).

AA and CX might not have a JV but they have extensive codesharing agreements. I think CX can make DFW work, perhaps with the A359.

If KE can serve ATL-ICN with DL, then I dont see a reason why CX can't do the same. If I am not mistaken, KE's past relationship with DL hasn't been the very best compared to AA-CX. Frankly, apart from DFW, I can't think of any other US cities CX can start services to, perhaps MIA which had been discussed several times. HNL which could potentially be a KA route. LAS is another one that comes into mind.

J343 wrote:

If KE can serve ATL-ICN with DL, then I dont see a reason why CX can't do the same. If I am not mistaken, KE's past relationship with DL hasn't been the very best compared to AA-CX. Frankly, apart from DFW, I can't think of any other US cities CX can start services to, perhaps MIA which had been discussed several times. HNL which could potentially be a KA route. LAS is another one that comes into mind.

Totally different market. KE had been flying to ATL for years, albeit not always non-stop (I saw SEL-ORD-ATL circa 1999). The Korean population in Atlanta area is big.

Otherwise, HNL is the largest unserved market out of HKG:
https://www.anna.aero/2019/03/06/100-ro ... p-service/

But if you calculate the PDEW it's still only about 73 PDEW. Not quite large enough to fill a plane.