x1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sat Apr 27, 2019 3:47 am

Also as I indicated on the the other thread related to LATAM, the fastest flying time from HKG to GRU is HKG-JNB-GRU which the new CX/LATAM code-share will fix:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... pril-2019/

To the west-coast of South America to get to SCL the fastest flying time is actually via Australia in HKG-MEL/AKL-SCL. For EZE its HKG-AKL-EZE on Air New Zealand.

Finally I highly recommend CX go daily to MAD and code-share on Iberia'a vast network in South America from MAD which is faster than transferring via North America (only Central/Northern South America is faster via North America).
 
a19901213
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sat Apr 27, 2019 5:58 am

People do have to admit the fact that MIA is too small for such a long flight.
 
anrec80
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sat Apr 27, 2019 7:19 am

One more frequency YVR-JFK? Now that Philippines are gone from the route, tickets have to be booked a month in advance, and are generally costly. I don't see why UA or DL won't launch this non-stop. My family member literally now is enroute with DL. They are stuck in MSP due to delays... Wish I could find them a CX non-stop seat.
 
x1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:03 am

YVR-JFK is seasonal on Delta and Air Canada also fly the route year-round with a 789. And NO CX isn't going to launch another frequency on YVR-JFK, if anything it'll be non-stop but unlikely as they are already 3x daily JFK 1x daily EWR and 1x daily YVR. Also UA recently up-gauged to the 77W on HKG-EWR too.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:18 am

x1234 wrote:
Also noticed the A350-1000 upgrade and IAD going 5x weekly. So IAD seems a success so far.

IAD launched with an A35K... this is a return to where they already had been, in terms of gauge. Additional frequency though.


x1234 wrote:
I don't think its worth it for CX to fly to MIA

But they do, and they've been quite vocal about that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
anrec80
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:16 am

a19901213 wrote:
People do have to admit the fact that MIA is too small for such a long flight.


Will they even have aircraft to operate such long flight economically, without payload restrictions? A359-ULR can probably do it, but can 15K or regular 159?
 
tealnz
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:36 am

Scanorama wrote:
The problem with Wellington is its runway restriction which can only be overcome by launching a 5th freedom flight from a nearby city that also has open sky agreement with Hong Kong (like SQ did with CBR and now MEL).

There are different views on what an A350 can do into/out of the current runway. The study commissioned by the airport company argued the A359 was much more limited on the current runway than other widebodies for reasons that weren't explained (but seem to relate more to landing performance than take-off). Zeke by contrast has quoted numbers suggesting the A359 could easily do SIN and HKG with full pax. It would be good to see Zeke proved right – though SQ is more likely to launch a non-stop than CX I imagine.
Edit: I now see Zeke has confirmed that assessment further up the thread.
 
a7ala
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:28 am

tealnz wrote:
Scanorama wrote:
The problem with Wellington is its runway restriction which can only be overcome by launching a 5th freedom flight from a nearby city that also has open sky agreement with Hong Kong (like SQ did with CBR and now MEL).

There are different views on what an A350 can do into/out of the current runway. The study commissioned by the airport company argued the A359 was much more limited on the current runway than other widebodies for reasons that weren't explained (but seem to relate more to landing performance than take-off). Zeke by contrast has quoted numbers suggesting the A359 could easily do SIN and HKG with full pax. It would be good to see Zeke proved right – though SQ is more likely to launch a non-stop than CX I imagine.
Edit: I now see Zeke has confirmed that assessment further up the thread.


I suspect Zeke hasn't considered "wet" performance which is where the wlg runway is really compromised and why the a350 testing occurred last year. My understanding is that the a350-900 has less wheels/brakes than the b787 equivalents which impacts landing and takeoff.

It would be good if Zeke could provide a bit more detail on his assessment eg. Dry or wet, headwinds on takeoff, temp, rwy34 or 16, did he take account of obstacles on rwy34, payload to sin or hkg.
 
BestWestern
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:10 am

CX are dropping Cairns completely.

Rumours are that Dublin and Frankfurt next to see frequency upgrades in Europe.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:50 am

a7ala wrote:
It would be good if Zeke could provide a bit more detail on his assessment eg. Dry or wet, headwinds on takeoff, temp, rwy34 or 16, did he take account of obstacles on rwy34, payload to sin or hkg.


I just used the information declared in the AIP (http://www.aip.net.nz/pdf/NZWN_AD2.pdf) for a nil wind ISA day. Not sure what you mean by brakes/wheels compared to the 787, it has he same number of wheels with a greater surface contact area. 16/34 have the same declared takeoff distance available (TODA) at 2300 m, just the slope difference.

Would not have looked at SIN, no interest in that. Would have just used an AKL-HKG plan as being close enough.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
a7ala
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:27 pm

zeke wrote:
a7ala wrote:
It would be good if Zeke could provide a bit more detail on his assessment eg. Dry or wet, headwinds on takeoff, temp, rwy34 or 16, did he take account of obstacles on rwy34, payload to sin or hkg.


I just used the information declared in the AIP (http://www.aip.net.nz/pdf/NZWN_AD2.pdf) for a nil wind ISA day. Not sure what you mean by brakes/wheels compared to the 787, it has he same number of wheels with a greater surface contact area. 16/34 have the same declared takeoff distance available (TODA) at 2300 m, just the slope difference.

Would not have looked at SIN, no interest in that. Would have just used an AKL-HKG plan as being close enough.


Remember that the TORA is only 1945m on RWY16 and 1925m on RWY34 and that will be the constraint - not the 2300m TODA. I think the airport is looking to extend to 2300m TORA but that will be a number of years away if ever. If you havent taken into account the TORA then you have without doubt overestimated what can be done.
 
x1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 9:36 pm

The cities missing in CX's Europe network now are Munich (MUC), Moscow (DME) & Geneva (GVA). I can't believe CX still ONLY serves 1 port in Germany which is FRA!
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:24 pm

a7ala wrote:
Remember that the TORA is only 1945m on RWY16 and 1925m on RWY34 and that will be the constraint - not the 2300m TODA. I think the airport is looking to extend to 2300m TORA but that will be a number of years away if ever. If you havent taken into account the TORA then you have without doubt overestimated what can be done.


I used all the published information from the AIP TORA,TODA,ASDA, slope etc.

I did not use the runway length of 1815m from
The aerodrome chart.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
a7ala
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:53 pm

zeke wrote:
a7ala wrote:
Remember that the TORA is only 1945m on RWY16 and 1925m on RWY34 and that will be the constraint - not the 2300m TODA. I think the airport is looking to extend to 2300m TORA but that will be a number of years away if ever. If you havent taken into account the TORA then you have without doubt overestimated what can be done.


I used all the published information from the AIP TORA,TODA,ASDA, slope etc.

I did not use the runway length of 1815m from
The aerodrome chart.


Ok thanks - and dry?
 
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ojjunior
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:03 pm

Luisvalero wrote:
From my point of view these destinations could be possible CX additions:
America: Montreal, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Mexico City, Lima, São Paulo, Santiago de Chile
Europe: Vienna, Geneva, Munich, Dusseldorf, Berlin, Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, Athens, Istanbul, Moscow
Africa: Cairo, Nairobi
Middle East: Riyadh, Jeddah
Asia: Islamabad, Karachi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Dhaka, Phnom Penh, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, Kuala Lumpur, Phuket, Busan, Fukuoka
Australia & NZ: Darwin

(Some mentioned destinations are served by Cathay Dragon)


São Paulo?
Any chance to be true?
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Sun Apr 28, 2019 11:26 pm

x1234 wrote:
The cities missing in CX's Europe network now are Munich (MUC), Moscow (DME) & Geneva (GVA). I can't believe CX still ONLY serves 1 port in Germany which is FRA!


They tried DUS before, but dropped it only after a year or two (Don't remember the exact length).

Moscow had been tried, dropped, and won't go anywhere - the Russian economy is just all over the place for that route to be consistently profitable.

BestWestern wrote:
CX are dropping Cairns completely.


On a side note - CZ is dropping CNS also.
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... july-2019/

The whole China-OZ market is way oversaturated in general anyway.
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
Morgenstern1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:13 am

Moscow DME resumption could still be an option, Russians are traveling more now and Cx used the wrong aircraft back then (A340) they could just an A330 for a that 9 hour flight now.
 
tealnz
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:44 pm

a7ala wrote:
I suspect Zeke hasn't considered "wet" performance which is where the wlg runway is really compromised and why the a350 testing occurred last year. My understanding is that the a350-900 has less wheels/brakes than the b787 equivalents which impacts landing and takeoff. It would be good if Zeke could provide a bit more detail on his assessment eg. Dry or wet, headwinds on takeoff, temp, rwy34 or 16, did he take account of obstacles on rwy34, payload to sin or hkg.

You'll remember we went over some of this a year or two back in the tech/ops thread on Wellington/short runway performance. Zeke at the time quoted a take-off weight in the wet as well as on a dry runway:

zeke wrote:
I ran some numbers on the Airbus performance database, off the current 16 it will takeoff with 255.5 tonnes dry and 245.0 wet. Off a dry runway 16 it will do PEK with 315 pax and 9.1 tonnes of payload, flight time of 12.43 (assumed 6000 air nautical miles).
I ran the landing distance calculations, the A350-900 will be able to land on 16 at MLW in 5418 ft.

The bizarre thing about the Astra study is that it suggested that A359 performance in Wellington was radically worse than 777s and 787s. Maybe this is what you're getting at with your "less wheels/brakes" comment - which seems equally odd. I've never seen any technical explanation for why the 359 would have worse short field performance than competing aircraft.

We have never heard any detail on findings from last year's test flights in Wellington but at some point SQ will need to decide whether to put the 359 on its Wellington service to replace the 77Es – and maybe even whether to launch a non-stop SIN service. Which (on Zeke's numbers) would could even open up possibilities for CX :stirthepot:
 
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zeke
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:20 pm

Morgenstern1234 wrote:
Moscow DME resumption could still be an option, Russians are traveling more now and Cx used the wrong aircraft back then (A340) they could just an A330 for a that 9 hour flight now.


No we could not use an A330, there is significant terrain on the route and our A330s are not configured for that route in terms of passenger oxygen. The A340 was the correct aircraft at the time as they had oxygen tanks for passengers whereas the A330s are configured with chemical oxygen generators.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
mxaxai
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:12 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
They tried DUS before, but dropped it only after a year or two (Don't remember the exact length).

They had hoped to get some AB (oneworld) connecting traffic but after AB failed, the market just wasn't large enough to fill an A359. ANA flies DUS-NRT with a 789 seating 215 passengers, and launched the route with the even smaller 788. ANA also gets (a little bit) of feed from Eurowings. I think DUS could work if CX had smaller equipment or a local partner. Maybe Vueling or Easyjet?
MUC is of course a market difficult to enter against LH, who use an A380 on their route to HKG. That's a lot of volume already.

TXL, HAM & STR are even smaller markets than DUS and all have a plethora of LH group options to get to Hong Kong. I don't see CX there soon, if ever.

Overall, Oneworld more than ever lacks a strong partner in central & eastern Europe. LH / Star Alliance control the center and AFKL / Skyteam the surrounding countries. Difficult to launch new routes there.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:28 pm

mxaxai wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
They tried DUS before, but dropped it only after a year or two (Don't remember the exact length).

They had hoped to get some AB (oneworld) connecting traffic but after AB failed, the market just wasn't large enough to fill an A359. ANA flies DUS-NRT with a 789 seating 215 passengers, and launched the route with the even smaller 788. ANA also gets (a little bit) of feed from Eurowings. I think DUS could work if CX had smaller equipment or a local partner. Maybe Vueling or Easyjet?
MUC is of course a market difficult to enter against LH, who use an A380 on their route to HKG. That's a lot of volume already.

TXL, HAM & STR are even smaller markets than DUS and all have a plethora of LH group options to get to Hong Kong. I don't see CX there soon, if ever.

Overall, Oneworld more than ever lacks a strong partner in central & eastern Europe. LH / Star Alliance control the center and AFKL / Skyteam the surrounding countries. Difficult to launch new routes there.


For DUS-NRT, it helps that Dusseldorf is the center of everything Japan-related in Germany. The business ties is enough to warrant a single 789 flight.

As for CX - yes, AB going out of business didn't help at all. A359 is as small and efficient of a plane as you can get for HKG-Europe routes, though. CX also codeshare with LH Group nowaday, which lessen the incentive to find another partner elsewhere (Not that they couldn't - as CX partner with both AC and WS in Canada).
Free Hong Kong! Free China!
 
Morgenstern1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:02 am

BestWestern wrote:
CX are dropping Cairns completely.

Rumours are that Dublin and Frankfurt next to see frequency upgrades in Europe.


Frankfurt already got a frequency increase to 10 weekly a month ago
 
BestWestern
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:06 am

Morgenstern1234 wrote:
BestWestern wrote:
CX are dropping Cairns completely.

Rumours are that Dublin and Frankfurt next to see frequency upgrades in Europe.


Frankfurt already got a frequency increase to 10 weekly a month ago


Rumour is that it’s going twice daily. I’m on the day 350 flight ex HKG to FRA as the night flight is now 77W 3-4-3 in eco.
Greetings from Hong Kong.... a subsidiary of China Inc.
 
VRHNM
Posts: 71
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Wed May 01, 2019 5:03 am

What is going to happen with the regional fleet replacement? Dragon has been sorted with the A321neos, but I haven't heard of any rumours surrounding an A333 replacement at all.

Some of the oldest A333s (including KA) are now 25+ years old.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Wed May 01, 2019 5:19 am

I’ll throw out another idea. PDX-HKG 3 or 4x/week.

If DL doesn’t start PDX-ICN, isn’t there room for one major Asian hub from PDX? Even if DL gets PDX-HND or keeps NRT, there isn’t much connection there anymore.
 
Morgenstern1234
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:07 am

x1234 wrote:
The cities missing in CX's Europe network now are Munich (MUC), Moscow (DME) & Geneva (GVA). I can't believe CX still ONLY serves 1 port in Germany which is FRA!
. They should definitely serve Munich since they can access LH domestic network, Geneva to small..,Moscow I think is possible but a lot of competition especially in summer season on China Moscow routes (even Guangzhou has more flights to Moscow than Hong Kong), but CX has the best connections to south east Asia which should be an advantage as tons of Russians travels to South east Asia now.
 
xorrygva
Posts: 98
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Wed Jul 17, 2019 4:44 pm

Morgenstern1234 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The cities missing in CX's Europe network now are Munich (MUC), Moscow (DME) & Geneva (GVA). I can't believe CX still ONLY serves 1 port in Germany which is FRA!
. They should definitely serve Munich since they can access LH domestic network, Geneva to small..,Moscow I think is possible but a lot of competition especially in summer season on China Moscow routes (even Guangzhou has more flights to Moscow than Hong Kong), but CX has the best connections to south east Asia which should be an advantage as tons of Russians travels to South east Asia now.


GVA has advanced discussions with CX. It is the largest European unserved market from HKG and one of the top 5 worldwide. LX’s network is small but could help for connections and Easyjet’s strong network could also be used for connections like they do in MXP. MUC and GVA are probably the best two options in Europe.
 
Morgenstern1234
Posts: 76
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Wed Jul 17, 2019 11:33 pm

xorrygva wrote:
Morgenstern1234 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
The cities missing in CX's Europe network now are Munich (MUC), Moscow (DME) & Geneva (GVA). I can't believe CX still ONLY serves 1 port in Germany which is FRA!
. They should definitely serve Munich since they can access LH domestic network, Geneva to small..,Moscow I think is possible but a lot of competition especially in summer season on China Moscow routes (even Guangzhou has more flights to Moscow than Hong Kong), but CX has the best connections to south east Asia which should be an advantage as tons of Russians travels to South east Asia now.


GVA has advanced discussions with CX. It is the largest European unserved market from HKG and one of the top 5 worldwide. LX’s network is small but could help for connections and Easyjet’s strong network could also be used for connections like they do in MXP. MUC and GVA are probably the best two options in Europe.
. Maybe we should’nt rule out Geneva as CX is having a lot of success on its seasonal Christchurch service (Geneva Christchurch similar size populations) and Geneva is the type of niche market CX would look at, but in my opinion they should really serve Moscow as are they still one of the few major Asian carriers not serving Moscow (even China southern is flying to Moscow 4 times a week from neighbouring Shenzhen)
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:16 am

Since my international travel is at this point pretty much to the Philippines CX is my preferred way to get there (via JFK), with EVA being a close second choice. My brother is also married to a Filipina, and he lives in the Houston area. And for him CX is not an option. So Houston should be on the top of their list for new American cities to serve.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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DLHAM
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:24 am

mxaxai wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
TXL, HAM & STR are even smaller markets than DUS and all have a plethora of LH group options to get to Hong Kong. I don't see CX there soon, if ever.


The markets from BER, DUS and HAM to HKG are about the same size in passenger numbers. But HAM is the only one without any Nonstop flight to the far east.

More than 41.000 passengers flying HAM <> HKG in 2018 with a business traveler share of 60(!)%. This in addition with many connections available from HKG and no direct competition to the entire far east should make 3-4 weekly A350s to HAM work easily. Even as a Oneworld Airline.
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VRHNM
Posts: 71
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:59 pm

VRHNM wrote:
What is going to happen with the regional fleet replacement? Dragon has been sorted with the A321neos, but I haven't heard of any rumours surrounding an A333 replacement at all.

Some of the oldest A333s (including KA) are now 25+ years old.


Maybe a new A333 order would suffice :scratchchin:
 
pmartin
Posts: 57
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Re: Cathay Pacific future fleet/route plans

Thu Jul 18, 2019 2:24 pm

.[/quote]. Maybe we should’nt rule out Geneva as CX is having a lot of success on its seasonal Christchurch service (Geneva Christchurch similar size populations) and Geneva is the type of niche market CX [/quote]

I think you are missing the point, South Island has 1.1 million inhabitants, greater Geneva has 1 million people living there, 2 million within 45m - 1 hour and 6 million within 2 hours. Core Geneva may be small but the area around is well populated. The Geneva lake area alone has 2 million people, 2x the catchment area of Christchurch. And on top of that a very international and rich region. It is not for birthing that GVA is the number 1 unserved destination in europe.

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