cm642
Posts: 96
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:58 am

Ebmek wrote:
cm642 wrote:
Phoenix would have more demand for international flights if it weren't for a few factors the biggest being Arizona's education system. Arizona is currently ranked as one of the worst performing states (ranked 48th, practically dead last) when it comes to education. Employers and companies take note of things like this when deciding to set up shop in a particular region. While AZ has a competitive business friendly environment and lower cost of living, it's lack of an educated workforce hurt's it from attracting companies from overseas. Companies who create "high paying jobs" that help drive and create that international demand. Hence why companies from overseas tend to migrate towards states like Colorado for example, who has a better education system and better educated workforce.

One of the biggest factors route planners look at especially when it comes to international flights is premium traffic (aka "First" and "Business" passengers), that's where the bulk of the flights revenue comes from along with cargo. Airlines don't want to create the demand, they want it already in place. Until AZ improves it's education system, it will continue to be a flyover state for many foreign and domestic companies looking to set up shop in a place where they and their employees have access to better schools and an educated workforce. I'm saying this as an Arizonan who want's to see their state do better, but our education system kills us!

"Sorry, Phoenix. This is How Airlines Choose International Routes."
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2015/04/25/sorry-phoenix-this-is-how-airlines-choose-international-routes/

What is keeping Phoenix from landing more international flights
https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2015/05/13/what-is-keeping-phoenix-from-landing-more.html


As an Arizonan myself, I find this hard to believe. Employers don't care about K-12 education statistics. In the long run, that does not matter. All they care about are the tax incentives for setting up shop wherever they decide to go. There are so many businesses setting up shop in Arizona, it's mind boggling. Have you visited Tempe Town Lake recently? The corporate area near Chandler Fashion? All the way on the East side by Mesa Gateway? The area around Glendale arena? Phoenix is absolutely booming and Tucson is on the up and up as well because all the Californians are moving in. You have 3 huge Universities in the state with a crazy amount of foreign students. The Asian population of Arizona is growing and they fly back home in droves to visit every year (When Hawaiian still flew to MNL from HNL, plenty of Filipinos flew out of PHX and connected through HNL to get home). The market is there. AA or a OW partner would make money on a TPAC route out of PHX. The ONLY factor is LAX being so close by and that being a known gateway to Asia with plenty of connections.


I'm talking about education and it tying into our lack of an educated workforce which helps us to attract high paying jobs (that includes business travelers). Yes we have great universities and community colleges but because our K-12 lacks and the drop out rate is high in AZ, that's less people attending college which means less people with college degrees and smaller educated workforce. If we focused on fixing that and getting more kids into college, that would help boost our educated workforce to lure more companies and HIGH PAYING JOBS.
https://www.epi.org/publication/states-education-productivity-growth-foundations/

Plus you really can't use the whole LAX is too close scenario anymore, especially when both SAN and LAS have service to Asia. From an AA standpoint it makes sense since LAX is their trans-pacific gateway and yes I drive around the valley a lot and see all the development but as another poster had mentioned when comparing Atlanta and Phoenix there is a big difference. Atlanta has a larger educated workforce than Phoenix.

n2dru wrote:
Not sure what Atlanta has to do with this. But Atlanta has a highly educated workforce and population. Some top ranked universities and a local population that travels frequently. That's why companies like The Home Depot, Coca Cola and UPS are headquartered here and companies like Mercedes Benz and Porsche moved their US headquarters here. Can Phoenix say the same?


What lures companies other than tax incentives is a talent pool to hire from. Premium traffic (aka business travelers) is a big driver for international flights which is why I linked both articles for reference. I'm not saying PHX can't support it, I do believe we can support PHX-CDG, FRA, LHR and NRT, but really nothing much beyond that. At the end of the day we are still seen as a leisure destination as opposed to a business one.
Last edited by cm642 on Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:24 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
cm642
Posts: 96
Joined: Fri Oct 02, 2015 8:16 pm

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:14 am

Duplicate
 
N649DL
Posts: 516
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:30 am

I don't see why PHX-NRT couldn't be a possibility on AA. Honestly, PHX-LHR was more of a stretch IMHO and that's currently booking well on a 777, and it's not even on more compact large long haul planes like the 788 or 763. They just went for it, but perhaps it was because BA flew a 744 on the route for years, IDK.

JL metal could help but think work on PHX-NRT. The other hubs CLT / MIA / PHL (legacy JFK & ORD hubs both failed as well) I don't see as much of a chance even with significant feed going in and out. PHL maybe could work, MIA maybe on JL metal or with corporate contracts subsidized.

The issue is PHX is a largely domestic hub tied between DFW and LAX, the larger Tokyo AA players. If it did launch, a 788 could be a good fit. Much like how UA launched it out of DEN with Smisek saying "The 787 was the only plane capable for it." PHX has less feed as a hub than DEN compared to UA but the metro area is significantly larger.

I'd almost be more curious if AA at PHX would launch more Europe / South America routes like GRU or CDG (that's a stretch, just throwing it out there). Recall AA flew SEA-NRT up until post-9/11 with UA flying the same route and being the heavily favored carrier.

Ya never know, but I'd say if PHX-NRT gets subsidized (entirely possible) then it could happen.
 
Chasensfo
Posts: 176
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:42 am

If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:13 am

spacecadet wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
No one uses city proper in any regard for population stats in terms of aviation catchment, and yes PHL's is significant larger than PHX's....


No, it isn't. I mean, a simple Google search of either city will easily verify that for you. It takes 5 seconds. People should stop posting stuff here that is demonstrably incorrect and easily provably so.

Ya know, if you need clarity on what's being discussed, it may serve you best to ask for it... BEFORE pointlessly babbling. I'm talking about PHL's catchment, not its city proper.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
tphuang
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:48 am

It seems to me that DFW is AA's secondary TPAC hub after LAX and it relies a lot on connections to South America to work and service to PHX would rely on the same connections. How much O&D is there between PHX and Tokyo?
 
travaz
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:25 am

Chasensfo wrote:
If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.


America West Never served NRT. They flew HNL to Nagoya Japan.
 
Noise
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:39 am

I thought AA was dehubbing PHX?
 
grbauc
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:52 am

SierraPacific wrote:
I think in the next 5 to 10 years this route will either be launched by JL or AA. Phoenix is a boomtown with businesses moving in daily and a population that is growing more and more affluent by the year.

This all goes out the window though if AA gets tired of having three hubs within 3 hours of each other.


Only way that happens is if they GET a SFO hub/gates from Alaska airlines. Has much has I'd like AA to do a focus city at SFO or hub it's not happening. Unless AA buys merges with Alaska (don't see it happening) LAX, PHX need each other. PHX is to important to AA it the western US westcoasts connection hub. LAX is a gateway hub.
 
Chasensfo
Posts: 176
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:42 am

travaz wrote:
Chasensfo wrote:
If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.


America West Never served NRT. They flew HNL to Nagoya Japan.

Indeed they served NGO, but it was still the Japan market, I did not mean to suggest otherwise. Had they stayed in the Japan market, I imagine that US Airways would have been flying PHX-NRT by the time of the AA merger in my opinion. But with no Asia market past the 1990s, of course nothing materialized.
 
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cathay747
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:29 pm

Noise wrote:
I thought AA was dehubbing PHX?


NO they are not. They have right-sized it a bit since the merger, which for this coming summer translates to only a net of 6 fewer average daily flights YOY from last summer, with the new PHX/LHR daily, year-round nonstop being a BIG addition.

I hope your post doesn't start up the beaten-to-death debate about this again. Armchair CEO's in many other threads have argued this topic so many times I've lost count, and it's always debunked.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
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cathay747
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:42 pm

Chasensfo wrote:
If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.


Personally, I don't think the Gulf War played such a big role in the failure of that venture. I think that PHX-HNL-NGO was simply an ill-conceived idea. I mean, what the hell market was there for PHX-NGO, especially back then? It wouldn't even work today! And HNL-NGO local-market could hardly justify the route, especially with a 747, even more so if JL or NH were in the market as well, which I can't find out.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
travaz
Posts: 845
Joined: Wed Jun 13, 2001 1:03 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:14 pm

cathay747 wrote:
Chasensfo wrote:
If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.


Personally, I don't think the Gulf War played such a big role in the failure of that venture. I think that PHX-HNL-NGO was simply an ill-conceived idea. I mean, what the hell market was there for PHX-NGO, especially back then? It wouldn't even work today! And HNL-NGO local-market could hardly justify the route, especially with a 747, even more so if JL or NH were in the market as well, which I can't find out.


I think Cathay747 hit it right on the head. The PHX HNL was a good choice as that route is still alive and kicking but the NGO IMHO was a vanity route to try and play with the big boys. I know FA's that were at AWA in those days and they had tales of 5, 20,15 Pax NGO HNL. Loads out of NGO were pretty bad. Having said that I loved seeing the 747 at PHX in AWA colors.
 
Noise
Posts: 2447
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 1999 7:38 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:44 pm

cathay747 wrote:
Noise wrote:
I thought AA was dehubbing PHX?


NO they are not. They have right-sized it a bit since the merger, which for this coming summer translates to only a net of 6 fewer average daily flights YOY from last summer, with the new PHX/LHR daily, year-round nonstop being a BIG addition.

I hope your post doesn't start up the beaten-to-death debate about this again. Armchair CEO's in many other threads have argued this topic so many times I've lost count, and it's always debunked.


Dude...I'm trolling :lol:
 
TYSpotter
Posts: 2
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:51 pm

I don’t think it will happen. PHX is more of an domestic hub
 
Chasensfo
Posts: 176
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 2:16 am

cathay747 wrote:
Chasensfo wrote:
If not for the Gulf War destroying the loads of America West's 747 venture to Japan in the early 1990s, I think the market may have matured and AA may have inherited PHX-NRT with the merger with US. But, it was not to be. Tough to say now, I'm sure they could find a way to fill a 787, but I'm not sure PHX-NRT is the best use of said 787.


Personally, I don't think the Gulf War played such a big role in the failure of that venture. I think that PHX-HNL-NGO was simply an ill-conceived idea. I mean, what the hell market was there for PHX-NGO, especially back then? It wouldn't even work today! And HNL-NGO local-market could hardly justify the route, especially with a 747, even more so if JL or NH were in the market as well, which I can't find out.

I wouldn't have thought the Gulf War was a culprit either, honestly. I say this because I once had dinner with an ex-Routes Analyst for America West and he told me the Japanese have a strong opposition as a whole to traveling on a carrier while the country is involved in a large war. Yes, NGO is an odd choice given the background, but I was told by someone who was there in the early 90s the the Gulf War destroyed whatever yields there were or may have been. I also recall there being some kind of perks for America West in NGO that may have helped out, I think one was a contract with a Japanese vacation travel agency which was eventually ended allegedly due to US involvement in the Persian Gulf. I also recall that by the early 1990s, Northwest's 747s were tired and unreliable serving NGO so America West scooped up plenty of HNL bound pax that way fairly regularly. I do not recall all the details as this was back in 2009 and of course I had a lot of questions about the carrier beyond the 747s, but I have no reason not to believe this gentleman given the information he was privy too at the time.
 
gregn21
Posts: 234
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:05 am

The whole concept of AA having DFW, PHX, and LAX hubs too close together is very short sighted. Each one can be, and has been optimized for considerably unique operations. PHX has been optimized to handle pax traveling between the West Coast (Outside of LA) to the Midwest, Mexico, the East Coast, etc. LAX is becoming more and more of a strictly O&D focused operation for AA. We are seeing a decline in regional operations and an increase in point to point destinations as AA prioritizes becoming the clear leader in the LA market. Hence, now that they have PHX post-merger, the do not need to waste valuable LAX gates on connecting pax (With the exception of TPAC, where they are trying to grow). DFW is obviously a fortress hub, which caters to the whole country fairly equally, and is most important throughout the South and Midwest for AA. If anything, AA should be concerned about having hubs too close together in CLT and MIA, not out West.

-- Back to the topic at hand --
AA should look into a PHX flight because of the aforementioned economic and population boom which has occurred in PHX over the last several years. However, I cannot see them filling a 77E or similar sized AC on the route. With the decent, but not quite large enough local catchment that they have in AZ, it seems like they have two logical options. First, they could just upgauge LAX-TYO if and when they receive their new HND slots, and send AZ pax that way. Second, they could encourage JAL to operate TYO-PHX, providing a larger catchment from both Tokyo and their other Asian / Pacific feed (Plus, JAL could more feasibly assign a more appropriate AC for the route such as a 788).
 
wetpantsmcgee
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri May 20, 2011 1:23 am

Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:15 am

mop357 wrote:
I don’t see PHX to NRT anytime soon. LAX and DFW are each an hour to hour and a half away and they both have 2 flights to Tokyo each. I think PHL to NRT is more likely.


I have to agree with this sentiment.

I'm sure AA is just fine with feeding through LAX to Japan. PHX is and should be more of a domestic hub. I just don't see the need any time soon for any TPAC flights that could be better served by LAX/DFW.
 
Boof02671
Posts: 1626
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Re: AA Phoenix to Tokyo?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:00 am

It’s wishful thinking they are gonna fly PHX to Japan with MD80s they pull out of the desert.

If you use logic PHX to Asia makes no sense while it’s quite clear AA uses LAX for its main hub to fly to Asia and the even applied for LAS to HND, it’s quite obvious PHX won’t get Asian flights.

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