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william
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Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:22 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1RU1JD

Lots of tidbits in this article.

-Airbus fearful of regulatory backlash from the Boeing MAX mess

-Airbus more concerned about financial performance than market share, sounding alot like Boeing.

-Airbus had an A320 replacement ready to announce if Boeing went clean sheet instead of MAX.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:06 pm

Nice link. What is 63 per month in aircraft per year? 670? It seems going to higher production is temporarily off the table.

It does imply the A321xlr is going to be offered.

Ohh... Don't pull a Sinclair by announcing a better future product before its time...

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mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:16 pm

Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:58 pm

I think Scherer loves the idea of Boeing continuing to
study NMA and staying loyal to the 737 for many more years.

Meanwhile he can ramp up A320 and A220 production, do
a A220-500, A321XLR, A322, Ultrafan A350 and go after the
80 A330CEO operators with NEO's.
Last edited by keesje on Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:59 pm

Whats everyones thoughts on the A320 replacement actually looking like the A30X?
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:01 pm

What's the A30X?
 
UPNYGuy
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:04 pm

IMO it looks more and more likely that the A320 replacement is going to be the A220. Airbus is investing and stretching the A321, and is taking that airframe places it didn’t visualize in the late 80s. Many of you have also stated this sentiment.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:05 pm

Arion640 wrote:
Whats everyones thoughts on the A320 replacement actually looking like the A30X?


There have been many different A30X studies over the last 15 years. This one is a few years old.

Image
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JamesCousins
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:08 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
IMO it looks more and more likely that the A320 replacement is going to be the A220. Airbus is investing and stretching the A321, and is taking that airframe places it didn’t visualize in the late 80s. Many of you have also stated this sentiment.


Seems plausible. Splitting the existing A320 family into two, with the A220 covering the A318 to A320 segment (providing they stretch and make the A220-500), with A321neo, A321neoLR & A321XLR covering the upper end.

The A318 and A319(neo) have shown to be unattractive to airlines on the whole anyways, with the A220 being a more efficient alternative
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:20 pm

JamesCousins wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
IMO it looks more and more likely that the A320 replacement is going to be the A220. Airbus is investing and stretching the A321, and is taking that airframe places it didn’t visualize in the late 80s. Many of you have also stated this sentiment.


Seems plausible. Splitting the existing A320 family into two, with the A220 covering the A318 to A320 segment (providing they stretch and make the A220-500), with A321neo, A321neoLR & A321XLR covering the upper end.

The A318 and A319(neo) have shown to be unattractive to airlines on the whole anyways, with the A220 being a more efficient alternative


Maybe A220-300/500s will replace A319 with many carriers. But an A220-500 is no A320 in terms of capacity (186 seat max), range, payload and cargo capability (AKH). The A320 will be offered as long as anyone wants more.

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9Patch
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:52 am

keesje wrote:
I think Scherer loves the idea of Boeing continuing to
study NMA and staying loyal to the 737 for many more years.

Meanwhile he can ramp up A320 and A220 production, do
a A220-500, A321XLR, A322, Ultrafan A350 and go after the
80 A330CEO operators with NEO's.

If only Airbus could up their profit rather than chase market share.
 
0newair0
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:20 am

mjoelnir wrote:
Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.


Airbus production calendar is 11.5 months. 724 a year.
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:29 am

TFA says:

Market share is one yardstick but “it is not our business objective,” he added. “It is not how I measure if I had a good day, it is do I have the confidence of customers, am I making money, am I controlling costs?”

Investors monitor such language because market-share battles have tended in the past to conflict with higher profit margins.

Scherer is up against a relentless dealmaker in Boeing sales chief Ihssane Mounir, who snatched the orders crown last year, while Airbus had a negative first quarter on orders due to cancellations.

Quite a contrast to the Leahy era, IMHO.
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:42 am

Revelation wrote:
TFA says:

Market share is one yardstick but “it is not our business objective,” he added. “It is not how I measure if I had a good day, it is do I have the confidence of customers, am I making money, am I controlling costs?”

Investors monitor such language because market-share battles have tended in the past to conflict with higher profit margins.

Scherer is up against a relentless dealmaker in Boeing sales chief Ihssane Mounir, who snatched the orders crown last year, while Airbus had a negative first quarter on orders due to cancellations.

Quite a contrast to the Leahy era, IMHO.


A much more prudent approach?
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smartplane
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:30 am

william wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-scherer/airbus-sells-longer-range-a321s-sees-quick-end-to-boeing-crisis-idUSKCN1RU1JD

Lots of tidbits in this article.

-Airbus fearful of regulatory backlash from the Boeing MAX mess

-Airbus more concerned about financial performance than market share, sounding alot like Boeing.

-Airbus had an A320 replacement ready to announce if Boeing went clean sheet instead of MAX.

Certification process is under review going forward. The retrospective review at this stage only affects the MAX.

Certification and grandfathering was on the agenda at a CORSIA update meeting FAA and EASA had offline in January, which followed an earlier London meeting of most certification authorities (but not the FAA).

That's why A338 certification and A320 family developments have been fast tracked. Why Airbus is making positive noises about the MAX soon being back in service, and MAX publicity is highlighting certification process long since agreed, moving to plan, and commonality with earlier versions.

Instead of using their generic PR companies, both OEM's have appointed PR specialists for upcoming new models.

Not chasing market share is marketing code for widening the margins, which is already the case with the A321NEO and derivatives.

Is the margin step enough to justify a new wing?
Last edited by smartplane on Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 am

Getting rid of the A318? I can see. the A319 has a 3300 nmi range which is Excellent for Off Peak Hub and all day spoke routes transcon.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:48 am

9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Scherer loves the idea of Boeing continuing to
study NMA and staying loyal to the 737 for many more years.

Meanwhile he can ramp up A320 and A220 production, do
a A220-500, A321XLR, A322, Ultrafan A350 and go after the
80 A330CEO operators with NEO's.

If only Airbus could up their profit rather than chase market share.



Its funny some one in an interview says he focuses on profitability (when he's sold out anyway & demand beats supply), immediately some folks here take the opportunity to suggest the company didn't before.

A kind of "holier then thou" to explain the second place that favorite OE is in at this moment. It wasn't our performance leading to the market share, it's the other one being unfair..

While we witness the all out campaigns they went into to protect / regain some business. Sucking up huge tax break, embedding government agency's, using politics to block competition, deflect responsibilities, blame others, call the prez, anything, anything. Forget the "holier" :rotfl:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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SomebodyInTLS
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:50 am

DenverTed wrote:
What's the A30X?


An old collective code name used for various narrowbody upgrade/replacement studies over the years.

Nothing to see here; move along...
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:47 am

gatibosgru wrote:
Revelation wrote:
TFA says:

Market share is one yardstick but “it is not our business objective,” he added. “It is not how I measure if I had a good day, it is do I have the confidence of customers, am I making money, am I controlling costs?”

Investors monitor such language because market-share battles have tended in the past to conflict with higher profit margins.

Scherer is up against a relentless dealmaker in Boeing sales chief Ihssane Mounir, who snatched the orders crown last year, while Airbus had a negative first quarter on orders due to cancellations.

Quite a contrast to the Leahy era, IMHO.


A much more prudent approach?


'Not chase market share' = compete less vigorously on price. Classic duopolist/oligopolist behavior. You can expect less innovation & investment, too, as with Boeing with a warmed-over MAX; Airbus with the lame effort that was the first A350 proposal.

08 MAY, 2006 SOURCE: FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL LOS ANGELES
By Guy Norris in Los Angeles

Airbus is working on a dramatic redesign of its planned A350 long-range widebody twin that is aimed at an all-new aircraft family capable of leapfrogging the rival Boeing 787 as well as the 777, Flight International reveals in this week’s issue.

Airbus went back to the drawing board on the A350 after vocal criticism from key customers such as International Lease Finance, and is expected to reveal details of the initiative in July.

The new family is expected to comprise three versions, the A350-800, -900 and -1000. Key design changes from the earlier A350 include a wider fuselage cross-section, larger all-composite wing, higher Mach 0.85 cruise speed and more powerful engines in the 85,000-90,000lb (380-400kN) thrust class.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... to-206441/
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:17 am

9Patch wrote:
If only Airbus could up their profit rather than chase market share.


The A321 likely has (probably by quite some distance) the fattest relative profit margins in the industry right now and has done so for the past 6 or 7 years.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:07 pm

It looks like Boeing made about $10B pre R&D Expense and Airbus made about $5.5B pre R&D last year (Great improvement from Airbus last year) while sales were roughly equivalent.

How can you conclude that Airbus was not accepting a lower profit margin to gain share? This relationship has been in place for many years and at times worse (for Airbus).

Given Boeing plays games with Program Cost Accounting but that effect is now basically negligible and will actually start to hurt them.

I think Airbus is being quite smart - they should emphasize Profit - they need the cash flow to pay for Future programs and not rely on launch aid (Boeing shouldn't either).

Given they exist in a Dualopoly they really aren't earning that high of a margin - it should be better for both Airbus & Boeing.
 
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william
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:13 pm

keesje wrote:
9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Scherer loves the idea of Boeing continuing to
study NMA and staying loyal to the 737 for many more years.

Meanwhile he can ramp up A320 and A220 production, do
a A220-500, A321XLR, A322, Ultrafan A350 and go after the
80 A330CEO operators with NEO's.

If only Airbus could up their profit rather than chase market share.



Its funny some one in an interview says he focuses on profitability (when he's sold out anyway & demand beats supply), immediately some folks here take the opportunity to suggest the company didn't before.

A kind of "holier then thou" to explain the second place that favorite OE is in at this moment. It wasn't our performance leading to the market share, it's the other one being unfair..

While we witness the all out campaigns they went into to protect / regain some business. Sucking up huge tax break, embedding government agency's, using politics to block competition, deflect responsibilities, blame others, call the prez, anything, anything. Forget the "holier" :rotfl:


I love your condescension first thing in the morning.

If the market share was not a major goal, then concentrating on profit would not be news, would it. What you consider a negative ( I don't know why), is great news for stockholders.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:36 pm

morrisond wrote:
It looks like Boeing made about $10B pre R&D Expense and Airbus made about $5.5B pre R&D last year (Great improvement from Airbus last year) while sales were roughly equivalent.

How can you conclude that Airbus was not accepting a lower profit margin to gain share? This relationship has been in place for many years and at times worse (for Airbus).

Given Boeing plays games with Program Cost Accounting but that effect is now basically negligible and will actually start to hurt them.

I think Airbus is being quite smart - they should emphasize Profit - they need the cash flow to pay for Future programs and not rely on launch aid (Boeing shouldn't either).

Given they exist in a Dualopoly they really aren't earning that high of a margin - it should be better for both Airbus & Boeing.

It looks like you are wanting a way to explain the second place that favorite OE is in at this moment with regard to profits.

It shouldn't be a surprise that Airbus is going with A321XLR, we knew this from the time of the shelving of A320 Plus/Plus-Plus.

I wonder if those improvements in manufacturing are paying dividends already.

This thread, along with at least one other, told us that there are already customers signed up for the A321XLR, even though the project is not yet announced.

It seems Airbus wants to have something to make a splash at Paris.

william wrote:
If the market share was not a major goal, then concentrating on profit would not be news, would it. What you consider a negative ( I don't know why), is great news for stockholders.

Seems some prefer the flamboyant Leahy era approach to the more prudent Scherer era.

Maybe the prudence comes from Scherer's family history:

Scherer, whose father flew in the first ever Airbus test flight as an engineer, became head of sales in September after a career in sales contracts, strategy, defense and turboprops.

Scherer must have memories of the lean early days of Airbus.

TFA says:

Urbane and multilingual, Scherer’s style contrasts with that of long-serving sales chief John Leahy who dominated aviation for 25 years with a dizzying pursuit of higher market share as he dragged Airbus from upstart to Boeing’s commercial equal.

“We will defend where we are. But as I look into the future it’s a different kind of chessboard than when Airbus had to lift itself from a 20 percent market share to 50,” Scherer said.

I'm not sure why there is so much push back on the idea that Airbus's approach to the current era is different to that of the Leahy era, with less focus on market share and more on profitability.

It's all there in black and white if you read with an open mind.

Note again the quote "a dizzying pursuit of higher market share".

Leahy himself said their main goal in his time was market share, and pretty much every other observer agrees.
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:04 pm

I worry that any further modifications to the A321 frame will enter into the same issues as the 737Max! This airframe was not designed to be stretched so far, there are limits; We don't want to see a repeat of some MCAS issue with Airbus.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:42 pm

Every business gets to decide where the line between market share and margin is. Airbus has had tremendous growth in market share. In any business that usually comes with a drop in margin. In aviation margin can be made up on aftermarket sales. More planes in service means more spare parts sold and more avionics upgrades to keep up with modern technology.

I understand that fans of a company want to believe that market share comes from their favorite product being the best. There is an element of that, but at the macro scale Airbus and Boeing products are very competitive with each other.

Now may be a good time to let margins creep up. Both manufacturers are struggling with engine issues and supply chain problems at high volume production rates. Unfortunately if margin goes too high, it opens the door for new competitive entries.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 1:48 pm

keesje wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Whats everyones thoughts on the A320 replacement actually looking like the A30X?


There have been many different A30X studies over the last 15 years. This one is a few years old.

Image


I am pretty sure this is not the A30X that they had ready and waiting in 2010.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:13 pm

There are different strategies for different stages of breaking into a new or changing market. Sometimes pushing for market share is important, other times consolidation. Nothing wrong with switching strategies. Airbus, EK, WN, and even Boeing do it. Leahy did good for Airbus. (but not in every instance)
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:22 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
There are different strategies for different stages of breaking into a new or changing market. Sometimes pushing for market share is important, other times consolidation. Nothing wrong with switching strategies. Airbus, EK, WN, and even Boeing do it. Leahy did good for Airbus. (but not in every instance)


True, not that Airbus has achieved scale (which is an achievement by itself), now its turning its attention to profitability.
 
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william
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:25 pm

keesje wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Whats everyones thoughts on the A320 replacement actually looking like the A30X?


There have been many different A30X studies over the last 15 years. This one is a few years old.

Image


Remember this pic, must be before the NEO. Trying to see how GTF engines would fit. :D
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:31 pm

I'm sure Airbus can learn a thing or two from Boeing, on profitability.

Pushing out investment costs, pulling forward profits, for short term free cash flow, it's all in the books.
https://aeroanalysis.net/the-28-billion-challenge-for-boeing/

Working with suppliers "Partnership for Success" to improve profitability
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-02-14/boeing-is-killing-it-by-squeezing-its-suppliers

And product development, stretch grandfather rights and make sure costs for airlines stay low, e.g. pilot training costs.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/boeing-737-max-8-scandal-cost-cutting-addiction-squeezed-every-dollar-out-of-jet-until-disaster-struck

Put pressure on states to secure tax cuts, getting smart on pensions..
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/10/06/boeing-setting-bad-precedent-risky-pension-scheme.aspx

Making sure key customers pay a reasonable price & get excellent products, a win-win..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/scotthamilton5/2016/03/08/united-boeing-and-the-competitors/#3695464a30da

All for the next Quarterly's, stock prices, on which the top salaries are based. During the darkest days of 787 development, it enabled Boeing to create positive financial results, stock holder value, free cash flow or whatever people wanted to hear.

Not sure if this should be anybodies role model for doing business..but preferences differ for all.
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SelseyBill
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:21 pm

0newair0 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.


Airbus production calendar is 11.5 months. 724 a year.


....as a matter of interest, does anyone know if Airbus is running their A32X production lines 24 hours a day, or do they shut down at night?

Could Airbus; (or Boeing for that matter); up production rates by simply running production on existing lines at night if they don't already?
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:37 pm

SelseyBill wrote:
0newair0 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.


Airbus production calendar is 11.5 months. 724 a year.


....as a matter of interest, does anyone know if Airbus is running their A32X production lines 24 hours a day, or do they shut down at night?

Could Airbus; (or Boeing for that matter); up production rates by simply running production on existing lines at night if they don't already?

I think the FAL is only part of the picture (maybe even one of the "easiest"). It's the entire supply chain too, and engines seem to be a big part of the friction to a rate increase.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:13 pm

0newair0 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.


Airbus production calendar is 11.5 months. 724 a year.


That may still apply to the wide bodies produced in TLS. Regarding the A320 family the rate applies to the whole year. You can simply compare the average production rates with number of frames delivered each year.
Last year Airbus was ramping from 48 frames in the beginning of the year, to 54 frames at the end of the year. Delivered frames were 626, average monthly delivery rate 52.2 frames.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:59 pm

I look at the A321XLR as Airbus is trying to go for value added. If they can get airlines to move up from the A321neo or LR to an XLR, they can sell a frame for more money, that the frame it replaces, Production cost difference between an LR and XLR will be slight.
Same number of frames delivered more revenue. I assume that anyway Airbus is trying to push customers up. Better an A320 than an A319 and better an A321 than an A320. If you have limited capacity in numbers, you push for a better price and higher revenue.
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:30 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
If they can get airlines to move up from the A321neo or LR to an XLR, they can sell a frame for more money, that the frame it replaces, Production cost difference between an LR and XLR will be slight.

I wonder where exactly that "several hundred million dollars" figure falls... :scratchchin: ...from the link.....

"Separately, sources say Airbus has already signed up customers for the A321XLR, which is being developed at a cost of several hundred million dollars although its launch has not yet been formally announced."


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Kindanew
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm

How likely do people think it is that the XLR will have a new wing?
 
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:35 pm

Kindanew wrote:
How likely do people think it is that the XLR will have a new wing?

XLR will not have a new wing, especially if the program only costs “several hundred million” dollars.

It is integrating additional fuel capacity into permanent, more volume efficient tank(s) rather than ACTs and bumping up MTOW some to allow for the fuel load.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:57 pm

A 30X sure doesn't sound like a 225. Can we kill that 225 talk yet? Bet they'd go bigger idea than 225 odd ball not common to Airbus, 320neo and 321 in production and call that their future.

It's more like 30X is a clean sheet.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:48 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Every business gets to decide where the line between market share and margin is. Airbus has had tremendous growth in market share. In any business that usually comes with a drop in margin. In aviation margin can be made up on aftermarket sales. More planes in service means more spare parts sold and more avionics upgrades to keep up with modern technology.

I understand that fans of a company want to believe that market share comes from their favorite product being the best. There is an element of that, but at the macro scale Airbus and Boeing products are very competitive with each other.

Now may be a good time to let margins creep up. Both manufacturers are struggling with engine issues and supply chain problems at high volume production rates. Unfortunately if margin goes too high, it opens the door for new competitive entries.


We read this a lot these days. Also in the BA A380 thread.
Pursuit of market share may reduce unit margin, but the idea is that it's compensated by volume. The added volume is literally the added market share.

You can ask Lockheed commercial, McDonnell Douglas, Fokker, British Aerospace, Bombardier, Dornier, Dassault and virtually all Russian commercial aircraft manufacturers how profitable their current market share in commercial aircraft is to them....

If you are in a lucrative market, market share is king, unit profit only becomes a concern when your ability to supply is capped for some reason.
However, in most cases it makes more sense to work through the reason that caps your supply (upsizing) rather than investing in increasing unit profit.

Airbus is doing a bit of both. Increasing production rate while also trying to maximise unit margin.

Are they doing enough though?
Scherrer has little to show for his strategy if you look at the order balance for this year.
Sure, B6 and others will upgrade their orders from A320's to A321XLR's, but I don't see any A330neo or A220 orders. And we can't even talk about the A380 anymore.
How about the A350? No production rate increase?

In summary, Airbus is rate limited on two popular production lines, and is not selling on two less popular product lines. They just shut down their fifth one.
Stop talking about unit margin and go sell some A220/A330.'s.
 
1989worstyear
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:02 pm

Polot wrote:
Kindanew wrote:
How likely do people think it is that the XLR will have a new wing?

XLR will not have a new wing, especially if the program only costs “several hundred million” dollars.

It is integrating additional fuel capacity into permanent, more volume efficient tank(s) rather than ACTs and bumping up MTOW some to allow for the fuel load.


Wow - that 1988 -200 wing will likely make to 60 if that's the case :birthday:
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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AirlineCritic
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:16 am

Revelation wrote:
Quite a contrast to the Leahy era, IMHO.


I think it is the times and the situation, not the men in charge.

Currently in the narrowbody segment A has the upper hand (and the MAX troubles are not helping Boeing). If you were in that situation, wouldn't you keep doing what you were doing, not bother increasing volume much, and just ask for more money for your products? Makes perfect sense to me.
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:27 am

0newair0 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Rate 63 would mean around 750 a year. Airbus aims for about 700 A320 family frames this year. Rate 60 by summer.


Airbus production calendar is 11.5 months. 724 a year.


IMU the monthly rate is a back compute of the yearly rate. i.e. $rate is the real projected rate for the full year.
( Look for a year where Airbus had constant production rate and compare delivered to ($rate/month*12) .)

difficult to get a grip when they change rate all the time :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:30 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Stop talking about unit margin and go sell some A220/A330.'s.


A321 and derivatives seem to be much "harder" in pricing than the smaller model(s).
Airbus has sold gobs of A321. You'll see that transform into higher unit margin in the future.
paid up deliveries. ( going towards 50% of deliveries :-)
But at the moment those are just ink in the orderbook.
Murphy is an optimist
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:02 pm

AirlineCritic wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Quite a contrast to the Leahy era, IMHO.

I think it is the times and the situation, not the men in charge.

In general principal I agree, but I think Leahy was an outlier. From what we read, before he came to TLS, Airbus itself didn't think it could get to 50% market share, and I agree with TFA's characterization of the Leahy era as being "a dizzying pursuit of higher market share", having been following Airbus closely for the 14 years I've been on a.net and at least a decade longer.

AirlineCritic wrote:
Currently in the narrowbody segment A has the upper hand (and the MAX troubles are not helping Boeing). If you were in that situation, wouldn't you keep doing what you were doing, not bother increasing volume much, and just ask for more money for your products? Makes perfect sense to me.

Yes, this makes perfect sense to me as well.

If anything, I think Airbus should have ended the Leahy era a few years sooner than it did, and killed the A380 earlier than it did, and shifted their focus on improving their profitability sooner than they did.

Others seem to think Airbus should be making A320.5, A321+, A322 et al even after seeing that just making the center fuel tank bigger costs hundreds of millions of euros. Others were huge advocates of the A380 and are still upset that Airbus killed it off, yet it never made a cent for Airbus, in fact it cost it billions of euros and an incalculable amount in missed opportunities.

After reading this article, I think Scherer is a good man for the times and the situation, even if the fact he's not Leahy and does not seem to want to follow Leahy's approach to the aviation business seems to rankle some.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:04 pm

There was a really cool thread either in Civil or Tech Ops that talked about the Integrated Belly Fuel Tank in lieu of the 3 ACTS on the A321XLR. Nice fotos and details. Did it get deleted?
learning never stops.
 
tealnz
Posts: 505
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:33 pm

Mods seem to have locked it overnight and deleted latest posts (about what’s involved in certifying the structural modifications). Here’s the link: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1400225
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:39 am

tealnz wrote:
Mods seem to have locked it overnight and deleted latest posts (about what’s involved in certifying the structural modifications). Here’s the link: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1400225


Yes, didn't see the latest posts, but wondered why it is locked. Just unlock, I would suggest. I've been wondering what airbus is doing to add this much range, with compromusing already challenged belly capacity at the A321LR. I wond er if the rumoured "Plus" slight 2 meter stretch is the solution. It adds OEW, but could solve the belly capacity question.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
tealnz
Posts: 505
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:56 pm

If I understand the configuration correctly the XLR will end up with hold space for eight containers - the integral tank will occupy only the two slots in the aft hold currently needed by ACTs in the LR. So belly space should not be an issue. For long haul I imagine freight will be limited instead by MTOW.
 
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ODwyerPW
Posts: 1475
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Apr 22, 2019 3:08 pm

keesje wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Mods seem to have locked it overnight and deleted latest posts (about what’s involved in certifying the structural modifications). Here’s the link: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1400225


Yes, didn't see the latest posts, but wondered why it is locked. Just unlock, I would suggest. I've been wondering what airbus is doing to add this much range, with compromusing already challenged belly capacity at the A321LR. I wond er if the rumoured "Plus" slight 2 meter stretch is the solution. It adds OEW, but could solve the belly capacity question.


That thread wasn't just locked.. it was butchered. Keesje your photos were removed and my questions about those fotos was removed. Maybe the whole thread turned sideways and the MODs just took a broad stroke approach? Who knows? Man, sometimes it's just hard to participate on this site. I'm going to take a timeout. Adios.
learning never stops.
 
Palumboism
Posts: 10
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Palumboism wrote:
Then they'll complain when they get gouged on jet prices.

Which sounds great in theory, but in the 22yrs since mainline aircraft manufacturing has been a de facto duopoly; what you're describing has NOT been reflected in reality at all. At least not for major carriers.

What examples can you give of an airline of any significance, being upset with pricing, and not having the competing manufacturer swoop in like a white knight on a charging horse?


More competitors is always better for the customer. What really forced the American auto companies to get better in the seventies and eighties was the foreign competition coming from Japan and Germany. Toyota and Datsun we're not strong competition in the early sixties, but as the learned what the customer wanted they became stronger competitors.

The commercial aircraft industry innovates very slowly compared to other industries with more competition. That's because they don't have to. Notice how Boeing and Airbus can both drag their feet on the MOM aircraft and the replacement for the 737 and A320.

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