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Devilfish
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yet the article says Airbus believes it needs a better engine to justify the big spend, and that won't appear till at least 2030.

And a member who may have more insight into that is unusually silent in this thread... :ziplip: ...due perhaps to NDA, confidence promised, or simply being busy.

So...we'll just patiently wait for that TRL9 mentioned above to trickle down into the development process...and carry on our merry, speculative ways..... :cheerful:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:09 am

Amiga500 wrote:
I still simply don't see the capability gap where Boeing can put a twin-aisle $20 billion program into.

You have to think long term not short term. The next lot of engine upgrades will see the A350 and 787 near 10,000nm range. So the capability gap is growing.

The first 777 that flew only had a range 5,200nm.
The first A330 that flew only had a range of 5,300nm.
They both grew to 8000+nm monsters with multiple engine upgrades, aerodynamic upgrades, wingtips, MTOW increases. The same will happen with the 797.

Once the A330's range improved it started capturing more of the market from the 777 as it was lighter and could do 90% of the flights more efficiently. Today we see the 787 and A350 being lighter and more efficient than the 777X and the sales reflect this.

If the 797 starts as a smaller and more efficient widebody that can do 90% of the 787 and A350's current routes then we will see a repeat of history. The A321 could do 90% of what the 757 could do

Starting the 797 as a small very light widebody with modest range is the way to go. Every round of engine improvements will see the 797 gain market share and the 787 and A350 lose market share. We saw this with the 757 lose market completely to the more efficient lighter competition.

In 20 years time the 797 will probably fly 7000+nm with a premium cabin. It will feed the growing point to point market. Instead of feeding one large hub into another country an airline can send traffic to 3-4 cities. Look at the US west coast to Australia as a simplified example and compare 20 years ago to now.

Thinking long term hybrid electric will come for short haul aircraft. I expect the the 797 to replace the upper half of the 737 market and the lower half of the 787 market. The lower half of the 737 market which is mostly below 500nm will be replaced by some hybrid, electric style aircraft with 25+% efficiency improvement.
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:48 am

RJMAZ wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
I still simply don't see the capability gap where Boeing can put a twin-aisle $20 billion program into.

You have to think long term not short term. The next lot of engine upgrades will see the A350 and 787 near 10,000nm range. So the capability gap is growing.

The first 777 that flew only had a range 5,200nm.
The first A330 that flew only had a range of 5,300nm.
They both grew to 8000+nm monsters with multiple engine upgrades, aerodynamic upgrades, wingtips, MTOW increases. The same will happen with the 797.

Once the A330's range improved it started capturing more of the market from the 777 as it was lighter and could do 90% of the flights more efficiently. Today we see the 787 and A350 being lighter and more efficient than the 777X and the sales reflect this.

If the 797 starts as a smaller and more efficient widebody that can do 90% of the 787 and A350's current routes then we will see a repeat of history. The A321 could do 90% of what the 757 could do

Starting the 797 as a small very light widebody with modest range is the way to go. Every round of engine improvements will see the 797 gain market share and the 787 and A350 lose market share. We saw this with the 757 lose market completely to the more efficient lighter competition.

In 20 years time the 797 will probably fly 7000+nm with a premium cabin. It will feed the growing point to point market. Instead of feeding one large hub into another country an airline can send traffic to 3-4 cities. Look at the US west coast to Australia as a simplified example and compare 20 years ago to now.

Thinking long term hybrid electric will come for short haul aircraft. I expect the the 797 to replace the upper half of the 737 market and the lower half of the 787 market. The lower half of the 737 market which is mostly below 500nm will be replaced by some hybrid, electric style aircraft with 25+% efficiency improvement.


But the same long-term thinking says that the 737 and A320 started out at 2 000nm but are now growing to 4 500Nm+, and in 20 years time are likely to be 6000Nm+ aircraft, leaving the "capability gap" for NMA pretty much the same as it is now. Time won't change that.
The only think that will change is that continued fragmentation will see narrowbodys continue to make up an ever greater proportion of the world fleet, and those sheer numbers will make them ever more economical to operate relative to a widebody. If anything, I see the NMA competitive space narrowing over time, not increasing

Rgds
 
grbauc
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:55 am

keesje wrote:
9Patch wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think Scherer loves the idea of Boeing continuing to
study NMA and staying loyal to the 737 for many more years.

Meanwhile he can ramp up A320 and A220 production, do
a A220-500, A321XLR, A322, Ultrafan A350 and go after the
80 A330CEO operators with NEO's.

If only Airbus could up their profit rather than chase market share.



Its funny some one in an interview says he focuses on profitability (when he's sold out anyway & demand beats supply), immediately some folks here take the opportunity to suggest the company didn't before.

A kind of "holier then thou" to explain the second place that favorite OE is in at this moment. It wasn't our performance leading to the market share, it's the other one being unfair..

While we witness the all out campaigns they went into to protect / regain some business. Sucking up huge tax break, embedding government agency's, using politics to block competition, deflect responsibilities, blame others, call the prez, anything, anything. Forget the "holier" :rotfl:



Who cares you have so much more to offer then fanning the flames.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 3:41 pm

Just took 2 hour flights in an E175 which hold less than a hundred people. What a pleasure to board and deboard! A large (over 160) 320/737 are a pain in the ass to do either if you are not in the front rows. The alleged smaller seats are not really a disadvantage for a 2 hour hop (wife and I not tall and fairly slim). The 797 with its two aisles will be a much more pleasurable plane to fly, and it will be the second aisle which makes it so. For me getting to the airport, through TSA, and on and off have become such a hassle that we are averse to flying. I really don't downgrade a plane for whatever they offer/charge for food and drink during the flight. I have me book and Kindle to keep me in preferred reality. If I flew much I would buy proper noise cancelling ear sets.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:00 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Just took 2 hour flights in an E175 which hold less than a hundred people. What a pleasure to board and deboard! A large (over 160) 320/737 are a pain in the ass to do either if you are not in the front rows. The alleged smaller seats are not really a disadvantage for a 2 hour hop (wife and I not tall and fairly slim). The 797 with its two aisles will be a much more pleasurable plane to fly, and it will be the second aisle which makes it so. For me getting to the airport, through TSA, and on and off have become such a hassle that we are averse to flying. I really don't downgrade a plane for whatever they offer/charge for food and drink during the flight. I have me book and Kindle to keep me in preferred reality. If I flew much I would buy proper noise cancelling ear sets.


Agree. I fly on an E-jet once a week at least and would rather, all things being equal, take an ERJ170/175/190/195 over any 737 or Airbus narrowbody, and massively over any CRJ or ERJ135/145 etc. They are lighter, more comfortable, a dream to board and deplane and generally nicer. I'm a fan.

Not tried the A220 yet so cannot compare.

Going back to the A321 future developments I would like to see comfort enhancements - thinner seats, bigger windows, bigger bins and more sense of space, but having flown on high density A321s I can honestly say that they are the reason I much prefer E-jets. Talk about bleeding all the enjoyment out of flying, even for a plane nut like me. High denisity layout, 200+ pax in such a tiny space, no room to breathe etc. Regardless of whether Airbus can build an economical 7 hour A321, I would go out of my way to fly a larger plane if possible if that seven hours is in an A321 in a high density layout people carrier CASM beast etc.

Shame they dont make a seven hour capable ERJ195LR really. Now that i would fly transatlantic no problem. I guess that is a fast route to bankruptcy mind you. Sad really.

I know Airbus are only responding to the demands of the market but it is a sad indictment of the financial irresponsibility of the market when they want to drive us off our nice comfortable 767s and A332s and 788s etc for transatlantic/mid/long haul high density shuttles. Nobody minds an A321 high density sardine can for a couple of hours down to Spain or whatever but pushing the A321 to be a CASM killer able to carry 200+ pax out to seven hours etc may make sense for the bean counters but I think it is a retrograde step for all of us. The Airlines will love it but the flying public wont (even if they demand the low fares).
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:01 pm

I think an A321 seat is wider than most 787 / 777 seats. If the cabin is quieter too and it has same knee space & IFE I would prefer an A321. I hate the shoulder rubbing on narrow 777, 787 seats.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
caljn
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 12:00 am

Again I must call out your anachronistic assertions. Not quieter, not even in the realm of debate that one is quieter than the other... though I will grant the 777's from '90s were a different story. Some advice, avoid phrasing such as "I think" and "if" to maintain credibility in your posts.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:12 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The first 777 that flew only had a range 5,200nm.
The first A330 that flew only had a range of 5,300nm.

Not sure those are the best examples, as they were both built from day one with massive potential weight/capability increases in mind, particularly the 777.... and they were both also artificially stifled in their first years, due to concerns for ETOPS, despite the 777 debuting with 180min.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
RJMAZ
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:31 am

astuteman wrote:
But the same long-term thinking says that the 737 and A320 started out at 2 000nm but are now growing to 4 500Nm+, and in 20 years time are likely to be 6000Nm+ aircraft, leaving the "capability gap" for NMA pretty much the same as it is now. Time won't change that.

The 737 will never exceed 4000+nm. It will not be getting new engines. So the gap for the 797 is now growing every year. In 20 years time the range difference between the 737 and 787 will exceed 4000nm.
 
airzona11
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:05 am

keesje wrote:
I think an A321 seat is wider than most 787 / 777 seats. If the cabin is quieter too and it has same knee space & IFE I would prefer an A321. I hate the shoulder rubbing on narrow 777, 787 seats.


On what routes would a 777 compete against an A321?
 
astuteman
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:49 am

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
But the same long-term thinking says that the 737 and A320 started out at 2 000nm but are now growing to 4 500Nm+, and in 20 years time are likely to be 6000Nm+ aircraft, leaving the "capability gap" for NMA pretty much the same as it is now. Time won't change that.

The 737 will never exceed 4000+nm. It will not be getting new engines. So the gap for the 797 is now growing every year. In 20 years time the range difference between the 737 and 787 will exceed 4000nm.



The A320 series will though. And no-one knows what NSA will do at this point.

The only way I see the gap growing is by the widebodys being pushed out of fragmentation routes by cheaper, capable narrowbodys.
If you want to exempt the 737 from that going forward, fair enough

Rgds
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:13 am

keesje wrote:
I think an A321 seat is wider than most 787 / 777 seats. If the cabin is quieter too and it has same knee space & IFE I would prefer an A321. I hate the shoulder rubbing on narrow 777, 787 seats.



A packed six abreast A321 feels less spacious than a widebody and is noisier (i think). Takes forever to board and deboard and the smaller bins mean I'm more likely to have to check my laptop carry on or worse - stow it in front of the seat in front of me. That would be a disaster on a long flight in Y.

As I mentioned upthread - ok for LGW-AGP but i'm not doing that LHR-ORD, no way.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:19 am

I think both Airbus & Boeing would get more benefit of a wide single aisle (like MS-21), where you can get past someone putting luggage into overhead bin rather than 2 narrow aisles which both block up when people try to load overhead bins.
 
CHRISBA35X
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:28 am

Amiga500 wrote:
I think both Airbus & Boeing would get more benefit of a wide single aisle (like MS-21), where you can get past someone putting luggage into overhead bin rather than 2 narrow aisles which both block up when people try to load overhead bins.


Going to be difficult to have 777-style massive overhead bins on a narrowbody no matter what funky new engines are hanging under the funky new twisted wing.

Having a wider aisle would obviously be desirable but it isnt going to be wide enough to squeeze past Old Ma Dawkins trying to lift a carry on that weighs almost as much as she does, or past the Adejwola family (husband, wife, three kids) trying to fit nineteen items of carry on plus a microwave oven, pallet of dried fish and two large boxes of kitchen tiles into an area you'd have doubts whether your laptop will fit into. Having a wider aisle is nice in concept but people bring so much stuff with them and have so little awareness of what is going on around them, how many people are stood there waiting to get past, that it isnt space you can realistically use (in my opinion of course). And wider aisle means (in most cases) a narrower seat which is bad news unless you have T-Rex arms.
 
Amiga500
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:57 am

Obviously they cannot do much with the current fuselages. However this:
Image
Is more than enough room to shuffle past.

If the main door was moved to L2 and they (A&B) multiplied the aisle width by around 1.5; then I think they'd have shortened embarking/debarking times enough for any twin aisle gains to be inconsequential.

edit: Furthermore, with the slightly larger fuselage, the overhead bins will be able to take a standard cabin bag on its edge (as opposed to on its back), which should improve embarking over current as well.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus to launch longer range A321 and not chase market share

Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:27 pm

CHRISBA35X wrote:
Amiga500 wrote:
I think both Airbus & Boeing would get more benefit of a wide single aisle (like MS-21), where you can get past someone putting luggage into overhead bin rather than 2 narrow aisles which both block up when people try to load overhead bins.


Going to be difficult to have 777-style massive overhead bins on a narrowbody no matter what funky new engines are hanging under the funky new twisted wing.

Having a wider aisle would obviously be desirable but it isnt going to be wide enough to squeeze past Old Ma Dawkins trying to lift a carry on that weighs almost as much as she does, or past the Adejwola family (husband, wife, three kids) trying to fit nineteen items of carry on plus a microwave oven, pallet of dried fish and two large boxes of kitchen tiles into an area you'd have doubts whether your laptop will fit into. Having a wider aisle is nice in concept but people bring so much stuff with them and have so little awareness of what is going on around them, how many people are stood there waiting to get past, that it isnt space you can realistically use (in my opinion of course). And wider aisle means (in most cases) a narrower seat which is bad news unless you have T-Rex arms.


People pass each other today by one person stopping whatever he is doing and leaning into an aisle seat. If the cabin cross sectoon/ aisle would be 10 inch wider that makes a significant difference. For getting luggage in the enlarged (higher, deeper) bins and people passing each other while boarding/ deboarding. A second narrow aisle doesn't solve the problem.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway

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