BigPlaneGuy13
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Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:51 pm

Hi everyone.

Alaska Airlines Group is set to have 737 MAX 9s delivered in Q2 of 2019, meaning any day now. Obviously, they cannot because of the grounding that has been active for a month - and likely will be active for the foreseeable future. On top of this, Alaska is running its mixed fleet of aircraft and is about to wrap up repainting of its Airbus fleet from Virgin America.

For a major portion of its history, Alaska's mainline fleet has been "Proudly All Boeing." With the current state of the MAX aircraft, now may be a good time to make a fleet decision at a bargain. It would be mutually beneficial - Alaska could retain one fleet type and mitigate costs, and Boeing can get, albiet some, confidence restored in its aircraft.

The Motley Fool ran a great article that you all should read: https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/14/alaska-airlines-may-order-a-ton-of-boeing-737-max.aspx

Based on this article and other current events, I have a few questions:

(1) What is Alaska Airlines going to do in the interim since they will be unable to fly the MAX?

(2) What are your thoughts on Alaska reneging to one fleet type? Where would the Airbii go and when? Is now a good time to double down on the MAX?

(3) Should Alaska invest more heavily in Airbus? Some A.netters have stated that the A321NEO has been serving the airline well.

***CORRECTION: Alaska has stated on the record that they do not take delivery of their first MAX until June. Given that they will likely not enter it into service for another period of time post-delivery, it is likely they may not need a strategy for a grounding.***
Last edited by BigPlaneGuy13 on Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:57 pm

I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.
 
G500Captain
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:00 pm

There will hopefully be many lessons learned from this. But the industry and public will move on. Soon enough, Boeing will be back to full production and MAX’s will be flying the friendly skies again.

I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.
Every time I get on an airliner, I’m reminded why I have a job.
 
BigPlaneGuy13
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:03 pm

G500Captain wrote:
I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


So do you think it would be wise for AS to purchase more MAX for their fleet strategy given the current environment?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:10 pm

G500Captain wrote:
There will hopefully be many lessons learned from this. But the industry and public will move on. Soon enough, Boeing will be back to full production and MAX’s will be flying the friendly skies again.

I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


Well stated. The lives lost are distressing but lessons are being learned.

The Electra was grounded after two fatal crashes. The design issue was fixed and the airplane enjoyed a long career as an excellent airplane.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:15 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
G500Captain wrote:
I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


So do you think it would be wise for AS to purchase more MAX for their fleet strategy given the current environment?


In short, yes.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
ericm2031
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:26 pm

Planned delivery was June with July being the first commercial flights, Q2 runs through end of June. Alaska only planned 2% capacity growth for this year, so they can probably absorb that with current planes...might just make retrofits harder on the system to take out of service.
 
Jefford717
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:33 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.


Completely agreed. most of the flying public will forget about the issue. I bet you that most people can hardly (or ever) differentiate the 737 MAX from 737 NG or other narrow body aircraft at all.

Personally, once everything are sorted out and the MAX are back flying again I think it will be the safest aircraft out there (maybe even safer than its rival, the A320neo) because regulators around the world will be more involved of the recertifications process.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:39 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
G500Captain wrote:
I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


So do you think it would be wise for AS to purchase more MAX for their fleet strategy given the current environment?


I would say this is the best time to do it. Buyers might even get a discount that wasn't available before.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 6:43 pm

First delivery in June with two more coming in October and December, if memory serves. There will be minimal if any disruption to the operation.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
nine4nine
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:09 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:17 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
G500Captain wrote:
I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


So do you think it would be wise for AS to purchase more MAX for their fleet strategy given the current environment?


Probably load up on MAX if the price/delivery is right; jettison the leased 320’s to return to a single fleet type.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:39 pm

With the 787 troubles - mainly production delays - customers did go an buy A330s and A350s. It got them looking again at their fleet plan. Admittedly the A320 and 737 are, more or less, 1:1 replacements. The A330,787,350,777 are more of a spectrum. But once a rival is in the door... Airbus might offer A220s as 73G replacements and more A321neo at the top end. Leaving the 73H/8-MAX to the middle. Not ideal for Boeing.
 
EChid
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:46 pm

And another thing to bring up here: Alaska is not moving away from Boeing in a significant way. The A320s are largely leased, to my knowledge, and I think AS has made it fairly clear that they don't have much intention of keeping them. The A321neos are very useful to have for minor upgauging, so I suspect those will stay around.
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ikolkyo
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:47 pm

nine4nine wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.


I’m willing to bet it will be the exact same, the only way anybody is gonna know they are on MAX is because of the safety card. Aircraft will be just fine going forward.
 
gmcc
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:48 pm

AS also has an order for 30 A320NEO that are scheduled to start delivery in 2020. While these were originally ordered by VX and AS is expected to cancel them, if the MAX problems continue more A320s could be in AS future.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 7:54 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.


No comparison. The Max has a huge design flaw that literally causes the plane to crash.
a.
 
Kilopond
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:03 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
[...]The Electra was grounded after two fatal crashes. The design issue was fixed and the airplane enjoyed a long career as an excellent airplane.


Right, but you forgot to mention one important fact: after those horrofic crashes with Electras dropping off their wings mid-air, orders had been cancelled. This way the mended Electra had been a technical succsess but a total comercial disaster. Almost like the Comet. Public fear and scare killed those projects, as they also severely hurt the DC-10/MD-11.
 
mga707
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:04 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
G500Captain wrote:
There will hopefully be many lessons learned from this. But the industry and public will move on. Soon enough, Boeing will be back to full production and MAX’s will be flying the friendly skies again.

I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


Well stated. The lives lost are distressing but lessons are being learned.

The Electra was grounded after two fatal crashes. The design issue was fixed and the airplane enjoyed a long career as an excellent airplane.


This is a common misconception. The Electra was NEVER grounded. Speed restrictions were put in place on the aircraft once the cause of the two in-flight breakups was determined until modifications (the 'LEAP' program) could be completed on the aircraft in service but the type was not grounded. Noted aviation author Robert Serling (Rod's brother) wrote an excellent book on the entire Electra accident and modification history.
 
mga707
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:06 pm

Kilopond wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
[...]The Electra was grounded after two fatal crashes. The design issue was fixed and the airplane enjoyed a long career as an excellent airplane.


Right, but you forgot to mention one important fact: after those horrofic crashes with Electras dropping off their wings mid-air, orders had been cancelled. This way the mended Electra had been a technical succsess but a total comercial disaster. Almost like the Comet. Public fear and scare killed those projects, as they also severely hurt the DC-10/MD-11.


The commercial Electra did turn out to be a financial money-loser for Lockheed, but the P-3 Orion patrol aircraft developed from the type turned out to be a long-running success for the company.
 
Elementalism
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:08 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.


No comparison. The Max has a huge design flaw that literally causes the plane to crash.


It had a design flaw within the MCAS. That will get fixed. . We were lucky a 787 didn't burn out of the sky. Lithium ION battery fires are no joke.
 
smartplane
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:16 pm

nine4nine wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.

The MAX will soon feature on a Mayday episode (perhaps two), repeated for years. Standby for series ownership to change hands, and production to cease before that happens.
 
Northpole
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:37 pm

nine4nine wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.


agree !
 
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:53 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
For a major portion of its history, Alaska's mainline fleet has been "Proudly All Boeing."

People keep repeating that, maybe in hopes it's true.
But, in the 74 years of Alaska Airlines' existence (since 1944, prior to that was under a different name), AS has operated non-Boeing aircraft (primarily from Douglas and Lockheed) until the late 60's, then MD80's between 1985 and 2008. So, for about 47 years out of 74 (1944 until 1968 - when they acquired Alaska Coastal Airlines and their Consolidated Catalina & Grumman Goose, then 1985 until 2008), they operated aircraft from other manufacturers; that 63% of their existence, not a "major portion of their history".
 
EvanWSFO
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:09 pm

smartplane wrote:
nine4nine wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.

The MAX will soon feature on a Mayday episode (perhaps two), repeated for years. Standby for series ownership to change hands, and production to cease before that happens.


Over-reacting much? So this must mean you are an engineer or other incredibly smart person that knows a flaw that cannot be fixed? In a year, the MAX will be going strong.
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G500Captain
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:12 pm

BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
G500Captain wrote:
I said from the get go that all this was was a time to watch for dips in Boeings stock price and buy.


So do you think it would be wise for AS to purchase more MAX for their fleet strategy given the current environment?


I think they should buy as many as they think would complete their fleet plan, and without hesitation.
Every time I get on an airliner, I’m reminded why I have a job.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:27 pm

With all that's going on with the MAX and the fixes, it will end up being the safest plane with all the scrutiny.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 9:32 pm

gmcc wrote:
AS also has an order for 30 A320NEO that are scheduled to start delivery in 2020. While these were originally ordered by VX and AS is expected to cancel them, if the MAX problems continue more A320s could be in AS future.


When does this decision have to be made? We're already through Q1 2019, I would have thought that deposits would soon be due if they intend on following through with this order.
 
gmcc
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:01 pm

Airlinerdude wrote:
gmcc wrote:
AS also has an order for 30 A320NEO that are scheduled to start delivery in 2020. While these were originally ordered by VX and AS is expected to cancel them, if the MAX problems continue more A320s could be in AS future.


When does this decision have to be made? We're already through Q1 2019, I would have thought that deposits would soon be due if they intend on following through with this order.


I was off on the dates. It looks like the deliveries are from 2022 to 2024 per the quotation from the latest 10-K.

We also have cancelable purchase commitments for 30 Airbus A320neo aircraft with deliveries from 2022 through 2024. We could incur a loss of pre-delivery payments and credits as a cancellation fee.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:54 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.


No comparison. The Max has a huge design flaw that literally causes the plane to crash.


That’s a bit of an over-dramatization. I don’t want to get in yet another pissing contest with others on this topic, but I disagree with the way you stated it.
 
RWRCAS
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:59 am

My guess is:

Alaska will order more 737 MAX aircraft.
All leased A319 and A320 aircraft will be turned back to the lessors on schedule with the first one, I believe, will be returned before the end of this year.
The A320 neo order will be cancelled.

The big question is, will Alaska order more A321 neo aircraft, or try to find new homes for those ten that will be in the fleet by the end of the year.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:09 am

smartplane wrote:
The MAX will soon feature on a Mayday episode (perhaps two), repeated for years. Standby for series ownership to change hands, and production to cease before that happens.

And?

Alaska Airlines had already had an episode with flight 261. It didn't stop us from getting on AS MD-80s.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:23 am

There is definitely going to be a public image hangover for the MAX. We haven't seen this sort of publicity about an aircraft type since the DC-10. It's going to be a huge headache for operators, who I expect will tell passengers they are on a "Boeing 737-9" or a "Boeing 7M9," not a "737 MAX." As with the DC-10, I think several years of crash-free operation will be necessary before the general public stops worrying about the type.

But I think it will present an opportunity for airlines committed to the 737. Boeing is going to suffer some cancellations and much more loss of potential orders in the short term. There will be great deals for airlines who want them. For Alaska, an attractive near-term deal could well make the difference in the upcoming "renew the A320s, buy more neos, or buy more MAXes" decision.

If I had to guess, I'd guess Alaska does the following:

- Keeps A321neo and makes a top-up order, for use on DCA rotations and possibly some Hawaii routes if the cost of ETOPS certification isn't too great. They'll order just enough to ensure that the fleet is relatively economical to keep around. The A321neo's field performance/capacity combination can't be replicated with MAX.
- Turns back in A319ceo and A320ceo.
- Takes delivery of current MAX 9 order and orders a few more, at least some of which will be MAX 8s.
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:35 am

People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.
I haven't been everywhere, but it's on my list!
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:49 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.


MAX will continue on. What exactly makes the 737 MAX so bad in your opinion? But you probably won't explain yourself because it's not worth your time. Are you going to say the same thing when a different airliner goes down?
 
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zkojq
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:18 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.


MAX will continue on. What exactly makes the 737 MAX so bad in your opinion?


Oh I don't know, the 350 dead bodies that Boeing's incompetence has resulted in?

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.
First to fly the 787-9
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:28 am

NWADTWE16 wrote:
People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.


The DC-10 had a similar experience and as someone who flew them both before and after the groundings - as an unaccompanied minor - I can say that people move on. That doesn’t mean there won’t be repercussions, but it won’t be the ‘sadly more people will die’ scenario as everyone at that time will know and understand what we knew in the 80’s: It’s an aircraft so scrutinized that it’ll probably be about the safest one out there.

I totally get companies canceling their MAX itineraries daily now. It’d be hard to put employees on a grounded airframe.

The NW DC-10 was my favorite plane growing up, pre- and post-groundings. If a teenager can figure out that public groundings and the following scrutiny can make for a safe plane, so can most reasonable adults today.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:36 am

zkojq wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
NWADTWE16 wrote:
People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.


MAX will continue on. What exactly makes the 737 MAX so bad in your opinion?


Oh I don't know, the 350 dead bodies that Boeing's incompetence has resulted in?

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.


You don't think there probably other factors that lead up to the crashes. The Indonesians didn't ground the airplane when Lion Air MAX behaved the same way in previous flights before that airplane went down. Or when the Ethiopian investigators found that the AOA sensor was damaged on takeoff before that MAX crashed? Boeing will fix the problem and I agree it will sting Boeing for a long time.

But I think it's more like you all Boeing haters that want Boeing to die here. If you don't like the MAX then don't fly on it...pretty simple. But the MAX will continue whether you like it or not.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 9527
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:21 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
zkojq wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:

MAX will continue on. What exactly makes the 737 MAX so bad in your opinion?


Oh I don't know, the 350 dead bodies that Boeing's incompetence has resulted in?

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.


You don't think there probably other factors that lead up to the crashes. The Indonesians didn't ground the airplane when Lion Air MAX behaved the same way in previous flights before that airplane went down. Or when the Ethiopian investigators found that the AOA sensor was damaged on takeoff before that MAX crashed? Boeing will fix the problem and I agree it will sting Boeing for a long time.

But I think it's more like you all Boeing haters that want Boeing to die here. If you don't like the MAX then don't fly on it...pretty simple. But the MAX will continue whether you like it or not.


I do think there’s a middle ground here. The MAX itself will go on to have a successful, if tragically tarnished, career. That doesn’t absolve some of the things that Boeing may have done both during certification as well as after the Lion Air crash which created and perpetuated a bad system implementation and communication. I look forward to a full investigation into the decisions that were made and how they were communicated, but that is separate from the MAX issues being fixed and the aircraft being an exceptional performer for the carriers that have and will order it.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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EA CO AS
Posts: 15391
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:00 am

The last time I spoke with Brad Tilden about the long-term fleet strategy, he said the hope was to have a decision made by the middle of 2019, and that "neither Boeing nor Airbus has come to the table with offers we can't refuse just yet."

I'm thinking the PR nightmare surrounding the MAX, in the short term, will ultimately lead to an "offer AS can't refuse" from Boeing, and they'll end up going back to being an all-Boeing operator, particularly since the A321NEOs - which AS really likes so far - are in such high demand.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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zkojq
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:39 am

PlanesNTrains wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
zkojq wrote:

Oh I don't know, the 350 dead bodies that Boeing's incompetence has resulted in?

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.


You don't think there probably other factors that lead up to the crashes. The Indonesians didn't ground the airplane when Lion Air MAX behaved the same way in previous flights before that airplane went down. Or when the Ethiopian investigators found that the AOA sensor was damaged on takeoff before that MAX crashed? Boeing will fix the problem and I agree it will sting Boeing for a long time.

But I think it's more like you all Boeing haters that want Boeing to die here. If you don't like the MAX then don't fly on it...pretty simple. But the MAX will continue whether you like it or not.


I do think there’s a middle ground here. The MAX itself will go on to have a successful, if tragically tarnished, career. That doesn’t absolve some of the things that Boeing may have done both during certification as well as after the Lion Air crash which created and perpetuated a bad system implementation and communication. I look forward to a full investigation into the decisions that were made and how they were communicated, but that is separate from the MAX issues being fixed and the aircraft being an exceptional performer for the carriers that have and will order it.


I agree with you but my point is that anyone who thinks that, come August, all the bad stuff will suddenly be over for the MAX, is not grounded in reality.

Also, how am I a Boeing hater? Literally the first ever 787-9 pax.
First to fly the 787-9
 
BrianWilkes
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:03 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:56 am

Here we go again. The problem will be fixed with time. With in 2 years know one will even remember the MAX's troubles and will not even know there on the MAX until reading and or listing to the safety presentations!
 
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Channex757
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:21 pm

zkojq wrote:

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.

All the Boeing cheerleaders are missing the biggest factor of all.

The MEDIA.

Do you all really think the likes of Fox Noise, CNN and MSNBC et al are going to miss up the juicy low hanging fruit of Muilenberg going round declaring the MAX is safe? He's being cast already as caring more about stock prices and bonuses than safety and passengers. The media will be salivating at doing hatchet pieces asking if the MAX is being rushed back into service on the backs of those dead people.

Not me...I'm not a journalist. I can just see this coming down the road and it might cost Muilenberg his position.
 
Gr8Circle
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Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 12:43 pm

Channex757 wrote:
zkojq wrote:

The media will be salivating at doing hatchet pieces asking if the MAX is being rushed back into service on the backs of those dead people.


….until the next big story comes along.....then the media will also move on......and how long will it take for the next story to come along....?
 
trnswrld
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Joined: Sat May 22, 1999 2:19 am

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:15 pm

I disagree with you guys that say people won’t forget the Max and the crashes and how it will have a significant impact for a long time. Honestly, the ONLY place I even see anything about the Max anymore still is here on a.net. The plane is still grounded and based on my everyday life that news event has already come and gone. That is not to take away anything from the people that lost their lives and the families involved as it is so terrible, but I feel like it will have little to no impact on things once the plane is fixed and back flying.
 
jghealey
Posts: 127
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 5:46 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:02 pm

I can see them operating a MAX 9 / A321neo fleet, the A320neo orders could be converted into A321neo.
 
bob75013
Posts: 856
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:44 pm

Gr8Circle wrote:
Channex757 wrote:
zkojq wrote:

The media will be salivating at doing hatchet pieces asking if the MAX is being rushed back into service on the backs of those dead people.


….until the next big story comes along.....then the media will also move on......and how long will it take for the next story to come along....?


You are absolutely right. Notre Dame has pushed the topic away from public awareness worldwide. In the US, the Mueller report has done the same and will do so for weeks or months. There will be other big stories that will continue to do the same.

A-Net obsession with the story is NOT shared by the general population.
 
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ACCS300
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:05 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:52 pm

trnswrld wrote:
I disagree with you guys that say people won’t forget the Max and the crashes and how it will have a significant impact for a long time. Honestly, the ONLY place I even see anything about the Max anymore still is here on a.net. The plane is still grounded and based on my everyday life that news event has already come and gone. That is not to take away anything from the people that lost their lives and the families involved as it is so terrible, but I feel like it will have little to no impact on things once the plane is fixed and back flying.


Hmmm, not sure about that. This thread seems to have to most deniers of all MAX related threads. My mom, who is suffering from dementia, asked me if I was flying on a MAX when I go to Europe in 2 weeks.
 
planecane
Posts: 1069
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:03 pm

NWADTWE16 wrote:
People are not going to forget this so easily. This represents everything horrible about the state of our country. Profit over safety, Corporate greed , and Boeing now twice in the past year has been shown to be in bed with high levels of government. People who are unaware will be on the max and likely be the next casualties, sadly.

So many people have been made aware of this and how bad the entire scenario looks that companies with thousands of travelers on the road daily are banning the max from even being an option. Airlines would be insane to stay one fleet type, and make the majority of that fleet this horrible plane.


People forget about mass shootings after a couple of months and those are reported on 24 hours a day for a few weeks. Outside of aviation circles and people following Boeing financial news, the MAX crashes and grounding got a couple of mentions on the cable news networks and a few news articles. With the length of the grounding, 98% of people will forget by the time they board a MAX. Especially if the grounding is lifted (which will be news for a few minutes) and it is a few weeks before the airlines actually start flying them again.
 
robsaw
Posts: 422
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2008 7:14 am

Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:08 pm

The advent of social media has made the public relationship to the 737MAX different than in the past; A.NET is just a microcosm of that effect. Personal opinion becomes as significant to the general populace as does expert opinion, knowledge and evidence-based analysis. An unfortunate trend generally, where misinformation can easily dominate and hold more sway than verifiable facts. One personal example on Facebook was the assertion that you can identify a MAX as any 737 type with two overwing exits on each side. This is bad for Boeing because such false data generally goes unchecked and the result is that the problem becomes a general 737 problem NOT a MAX problem. On the other-hand, the social media phenomenon also has a flash-in-the-pan, what is the next-big-thing nature to distract populist attention.

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