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DarthLobster
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:34 pm

Channex757 wrote:
zkojq wrote:

People can wish this will go away quickly, but the reality is that investigations into the FAA, the MAX's certification, Boeing's engineering of MCAS as well as the crashes themselves are going to drag on for years.

All the Boeing cheerleaders are missing the biggest factor of all.

The MEDIA.

Do you all really think the likes of Fox Noise, CNN and MSNBC et al are going to miss up the juicy low hanging fruit of Muilenberg going round declaring the MAX is safe? He's being cast already as caring more about stock prices and bonuses than safety and passengers. The media will be salivating at doing hatchet pieces asking if the MAX is being rushed back into service on the backs of those dead people.

Not me...I'm not a journalist. I can just see this coming down the road and it might cost Muilenberg his position.


The media is fickle. A few days after the MAX returns to flying, Emperor Hair will do or say something stupid again and all the focus will be on that.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 4:29 pm

It isn’t about haters or cheerleaders. It’s just reality. People move on. News cycles move on. Sure, you’ll get the occasional dementia patient who is acutely aware of the MAX issues, but by and large most people will simply move on.

That is completely separate from Boeing’s corporate culpability. That will likely be an interesting diversion in the business shows.

This thread was more specifically about Alaska, though. I don’t personally see them changing their plans at this stage.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:26 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
It isn’t about haters or cheerleaders. It’s just reality. People move on. News cycles move on. Sure, you’ll get the occasional dementia patient who is acutely aware of the MAX issues, but by and large most people will simply move on.

That is completely separate from Boeing’s corporate culpability. That will likely be an interesting diversion in the business shows.

This thread was more specifically about Alaska, though. I don’t personally see them changing their plans at this stage.

Keep whistling past the graveyard.

It will make a HUGE difference to AS if the media gets their fangs into the story during Silly Season, when news is scarce. Passengers might start actively avoiding the MAX and that will impact on AS just as they start taking delivery.

TUI Group are chartering in capacity through the end of July. That's when EASA will allow flying to recommence if all goes well and the FAA should be about the same. The media will be waiting....
 
BigPlaneGuy13
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 7:36 pm

I'm still curious to hear people's perspectives on what a big order from AS would look like. They've established themselves as a true west coast carrier, so what does growth look like for them IF they were to double down on a really big MAX order? Seems like they have been shaking up operations in PDX, they're at capacity in SEA, and are at/near capacity in SFO and LAX. And SAN seems like too small of a market.

Where do they go from here?
 
F9Animal
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:21 pm

Good question actually. One thing that I am confident about.... Alaska Leadership. I can guarantee they are all over this question right now. This MAX issue is no minor issue for anyone right now. Could AS cancel the order? Maybe. Do they want to? Doubtful. But, I am sure they have contingency plans in place.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 8:43 pm

Channex757 wrote:
PlanesNTrains wrote:
It isn’t about haters or cheerleaders. It’s just reality. People move on. News cycles move on. Sure, you’ll get the occasional dementia patient who is acutely aware of the MAX issues, but by and large most people will simply move on.

That is completely separate from Boeing’s corporate culpability. That will likely be an interesting diversion in the business shows.

This thread was more specifically about Alaska, though. I don’t personally see them changing their plans at this stage.

Keep whistling past the graveyard.

It will make a HUGE difference to AS if the media gets their fangs into the story during Silly Season, when news is scarce. Passengers might start actively avoiding the MAX and that will impact on AS just as they start taking delivery.

TUI Group are chartering in capacity through the end of July. That's when EASA will allow flying to recommence if all goes well and the FAA should be about the same. The media will be waiting....


Nice.

Maybe we’re all supposed to be morbidly pessimistic at this stage but I simply choose to step back and think ‘Have I once - just one time - heard anyone anywhere in my circles say anything about the MAX since the crashes?” No. It’s simply not on most people’s radar. I do agree that the media is vested in keeping it in the news - that’s how they make money. Whether that’s as catostrophic of an outcome as some here predict remains to be seen.

I’m not a MAX apologist either. I’m disgusted with some of what’s come out since JT610. That doesn’t mean I can’t look to the future and envision a MAX that has been “fixed” and certified by multiple international partners and that goes on to deliver many thousands of copies.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
bob75013
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:41 pm

ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not
 
impilot
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:50 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


In the last few days has there been any news to report relating to the MAX?

Edit: just did a news search for “737 MAX” and found plenty of mainstream media articles in the last few days.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:51 pm

impilot wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


In the last few days has there been any news to report relating to the MAX?


Good point. But it also shows that once it hits the cycle again - with positive news - it probably will fade once again.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:59 pm

bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


What exactly has there been to report on the max in the past couple of days anyways?

It’s when they try and say it’s good to go that you will see the media come running back.

I think folks who think the public will forget this are more wishcasting. It’s a big deal. Nobody wants to get on a plane that keeps crashing and that’s the public view of the Max.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:02 pm

Also, the 737max has caused a lot of cancellations, I doubt the flying public will forget that the 73max had crashes and then was grounded for months (so far).
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:35 am

Babyshark wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


What exactly has there been to report on the max in the past couple of days anyways?

It’s when they try and say it’s good to go that you will see the media come running back.

I think folks who think the public will forget this are more wishcasting. It’s a big deal. Nobody wants to get on a plane that keeps crashing and that’s the public view of the Max.


Well, to me, it seems the prediction of doom by others is wishcasting as well. So....?
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:36 am

Babyshark wrote:
Also, the 737max has caused a lot of cancellations, I doubt the flying public will forget that the 73max had crashes and then was grounded for months (so far).


They don’t have to forget. They just need to know that it’s been fixed.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:55 am

I was a young kid when the successive DC-10 crashes took place. Since we lived in Seattle, where the biggest players at the time were Northwest and United, the DC-10 was hard to avoid. My parents got very nervous about DC-10 flights in the early 1980s, but by the mid-1980s they had totally forgotten the DC-10 was a problem. That experience is what informs my feeling that there will be an image hangover for the MAX but that it will end within a small number of years.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:02 am

It doesn’t hurt domestically (we’re discussing Alaska) that the two accidents happened far away from US soil. It also helps [Alaska] that Boeing employees and their extended families are likely some of AS’s better customers and will get past the MAX issues sooner.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:43 am

bob75013 wrote:
A-Net obsession with the story is NOT shared by the general population.


Forgive me if I don't share the everything-will-be-rosy view with the guy who spent 40 pages of the MAX crash/grounding threads insisting that it was all the crew's fault. :roll:

ACCS300 wrote:
Hmmm, not sure about that. This thread seems to have to most deniers of all MAX related threads. My mom, who is suffering from dementia, asked me if I was flying on a MAX when I go to Europe in 2 weeks.


FWIW I've been asked about the MAX at dinner parties three times in the last week (two times about the mechanics of trim, one conversation about regulatory capture).

robsaw wrote:
The advent of social media has made the public relationship to the 737MAX different than in the past; A.NET is just a microcosm of that effect. Personal opinion becomes as significant to the general populace as does expert opinion, knowledge and evidence-based analysis. An unfortunate trend generally, where misinformation can easily dominate and hold more sway than verifiable facts. One personal example on Facebook was the assertion that you can identify a MAX as any 737 type with two overwing exits on each side. This is bad for Boeing because such false data generally goes unchecked and the result is that the problem becomes a general 737 problem NOT a MAX problem. On the other-hand, the social media phenomenon also has a flash-in-the-pan, what is the next-big-thing nature to distract populist attention.

And thanks to FlightRadar24, people can easily check on the flights around/above them to see MAXs.

bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


CNN, yesterday:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/19/poli ... index.html


Babyshark wrote:
Also, the 737max has caused a lot of cancellations, I doubt the flying public will forget that the 73max had crashes and then was grounded for months (so far).


As we head towards the busier periods of NS, I'm sure we will start to see more news and social media coverage of people complaining about cancellations and flight delays due to MAX cancellations.
First to fly the 787-9
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:05 am

zkojq wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
A-Net obsession with the story is NOT shared by the general population.


Forgive me if I don't share the everything-will-be-rosy view with the guy who spent 40 pages of the MAX crash/grounding threads insisting that it was all the crew's fault. :roll:

ACCS300 wrote:
Hmmm, not sure about that. This thread seems to have to most deniers of all MAX related threads. My mom, who is suffering from dementia, asked me if I was flying on a MAX when I go to Europe in 2 weeks.


FWIW I've been asked about the MAX at dinner parties three times in the last week (two times about the mechanics of trim, one conversation about regulatory capture).

robsaw wrote:
The advent of social media has made the public relationship to the 737MAX different than in the past; A.NET is just a microcosm of that effect. Personal opinion becomes as significant to the general populace as does expert opinion, knowledge and evidence-based analysis. An unfortunate trend generally, where misinformation can easily dominate and hold more sway than verifiable facts. One personal example on Facebook was the assertion that you can identify a MAX as any 737 type with two overwing exits on each side. This is bad for Boeing because such false data generally goes unchecked and the result is that the problem becomes a general 737 problem NOT a MAX problem. On the other-hand, the social media phenomenon also has a flash-in-the-pan, what is the next-big-thing nature to distract populist attention.

And thanks to FlightRadar24, people can easily check on the flights around/above them to see MAXs.

bob75013 wrote:
ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, BBC --- one thing in common -- not one single word about the MAX in days

the world moves on even if a.net does not


CNN, yesterday:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/19/poli ... index.html


Babyshark wrote:
Also, the 737max has caused a lot of cancellations, I doubt the flying public will forget that the 73max had crashes and then was grounded for months (so far).


As we head towards the busier periods of NS, I'm sure we will start to see more news and social media coverage of people complaining about cancellations and flight delays due to MAX cancellations.


Do you think the average person is attending dinner parties where the conversation turns to the topic of regulatory capture?

Again, it’s not that “the public won’t care”. It’s not that “the media won’t care”. It’s not that “the airlines won’t care”. It’s “Will they care enough, in enough numbers, and for long enough to impact the MAX and the airlines that fly it for the long term?”

Airlines are making multi-decade decisions. They will put more thought into it than a few weeks/ months of rough sledding in the media. The caveat, of course, is the PR firms and Twitter-for-hire types who are ruining social media and even everyday life just to make a quick buck. I suppose if Airbus or the Chinese decide to ramp up a negative social media campaign (perish the thought), it could be a tough falll/winter.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
LAXBUR
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:47 am

Folks on here really overestimate how airplane savvy the general public are. Once the media drops this, the flying public will be none the wiser. Especially considering this plane looks pretty much identical to the NGs to anyone that doesn't love airplanes. This isn't a Boeing defense, just the way it is. I've flown extensively over the last fifteen years and five of that was while working for an airline. As long as the plane isn't a turboprop or small CRJ - no one really knows what they're flying on. I mean many people can't even figure out what airline to check in at. They're booking the cheapest flight. A handful of business passengers and related travel agents may make note, otherwise no will know the difference. Western culture, especially American culture is incredibly short sighted with a very short attention span.
 
Babyshark
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:41 pm

LAXBUR wrote:
Folks on here really overestimate how airplane savvy the general public are. Once the media drops this, the flying public will be none the wiser. Especially considering this plane looks pretty much identical to the NGs to anyone that doesn't love airplanes. This isn't a Boeing defense, just the way it is. I've flown extensively over the last fifteen years and five of that was while working for an airline. As long as the plane isn't a turboprop or small CRJ - no one really knows what they're flying on. I mean many people can't even figure out what airline to check in at. They're booking the cheapest flight. A handful of business passengers and related travel agents may make note, otherwise no will know the difference. Western culture, especially American culture is incredibly short sighted with a very short attention span.



Sure, they don’t know one airplane from another. Except the 747... maybe. But they do know 737max crashes. I think we are underestimating the impact.

But also remember that’s the general public, the money is in the frequent fliers. They will remember.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:44 pm

Babyshark wrote:
LAXBUR wrote:
Folks on here really overestimate how airplane savvy the general public are. Once the media drops this, the flying public will be none the wiser. Especially considering this plane looks pretty much identical to the NGs to anyone that doesn't love airplanes. This isn't a Boeing defense, just the way it is. I've flown extensively over the last fifteen years and five of that was while working for an airline. As long as the plane isn't a turboprop or small CRJ - no one really knows what they're flying on. I mean many people can't even figure out what airline to check in at. They're booking the cheapest flight. A handful of business passengers and related travel agents may make note, otherwise no will know the difference. Western culture, especially American culture is incredibly short sighted with a very short attention span.



Sure, they don’t know one airplane from another. Except the 747... maybe. But they do know 737max crashes. I think we are underestimating the impact.

But also remember that’s the general public, the money is in the frequent fliers. They will remember.


Sure, but they will also know it’s been fixed, and that the fix will have been verified by multiple international partners. They will also understand that the plane was grounded by multiple international authorities until a fix was in place - if it’s flying again, the implication is that everyone agrees that it’s safe.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
bgm
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:22 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
The lives lost are distressing but lessons are being learned.


"Distressing"? :sarcastic:

Hundreds of people were killed because Boeing was cutting corners and trying to rush through a 1960s plane that had clearly outgrown its life cycle. I bet (and sincerely hope) if your loved ones were one of those passengers, you'd be a little more than "distressed".

Since money is the only language Boeing understands, I hope that not only are they taken to the cleaners by the victims of the families killed by Boeing, but also the costs of fixing the issues and the fines imposed by the FAA impact their finances significantly. Losing billions of dollars will hopefully teach Boeing that being penny wise is indeed pound foolish. It's just very tragic that hundreds of innocent victims lost their lives in the process.

Alaska could lease some 737NG or A320 series aircraft in the interim, if the MAX is significantly delayed (which it looks like it may be).
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:57 pm

bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
The lives lost are distressing but lessons are being learned.


"Distressing"? :sarcastic:

Hundreds of people were killed because Boeing was cutting corners and trying to rush through a 1960s plane that had clearly outgrown its life cycle. I bet (and sincerely hope) if your loved ones were one of those passengers, you'd be a little more than "distressed".

Since money is the only language Boeing understands, I hope that not only are they taken to the cleaners by the victims of the families killed by Boeing, but also the costs of fixing the issues and the fines imposed by the FAA impact their finances significantly. Losing billions of dollars will hopefully teach Boeing that being penny wise is indeed pound foolish. It's just very tragic that hundreds of innocent victims lost their lives in the process.

Alaska could lease some 737NG or A320 series aircraft in the interim, if the MAX is significantly delayed (which it looks like it may be).


So now we’re down to parsing words. You know this thread was about Alaska Airlines and the MAX, right? If you want to really hash out the way we’re phrasing our remorse, there are specific threads about the crashes and grounding.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
kalvado
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:08 pm

PlanesNTrains wrote:
bgm wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
The lives lost are distressing but lessons are being learned.


"Distressing"? :sarcastic:

Hundreds of people were killed because Boeing was cutting corners and trying to rush through a 1960s plane that had clearly outgrown its life cycle. I bet (and sincerely hope) if your loved ones were one of those passengers, you'd be a little more than "distressed".

Since money is the only language Boeing understands, I hope that not only are they taken to the cleaners by the victims of the families killed by Boeing, but also the costs of fixing the issues and the fines imposed by the FAA impact their finances significantly. Losing billions of dollars will hopefully teach Boeing that being penny wise is indeed pound foolish. It's just very tragic that hundreds of innocent victims lost their lives in the process.

Alaska could lease some 737NG or A320 series aircraft in the interim, if the MAX is significantly delayed (which it looks like it may be).


So now we’re down to parsing words. You know this thread was about Alaska Airlines and the MAX, right? If you want to really hash out the way we’re phrasing our remorse, there are specific threads about the crashes and grounding.


It is probably safe to say that the future of MAX at AS is not much different from the future of MAX at AA or WN.
We all hope that one all is said and done, MAX flies as good, and even better, than NG. It is unlikely that AS will launch SEA-LHR with MAX - but it should perform on intended routes.
Now if there is - hopefully not! - a long term issue, affecting reliability, perception, or imposing operational limitations on MAX, AS may regret the order. So will AA, WN, and bunch of other airlines.
There is an even smaller probability that the range of MAX will be affected so that Hawaii routes are specifically affected. That is quite unlikely, but that is pretty much the only scenario when AS is singled out.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:24 pm

As long as the changes do not influence the efficiency or the price of the plane, no airline will care.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:50 pm

I suspect the biggest long-range difference this will have to Alaska fleet planning is that it might make the 797 available a bit sooner. Between the MAX and the launch of the 787 it's reasonable to speculate that launch orders for the 797 may be a bit more conservative than otherwise, as airlines limit their early liability to early teething problems.

This may free up slots earlier in the production run for airlines who are likely to need smaller fleets of the new aircraft, and who are less likely to be launch coustomers.
 
UPNYGuy
Posts: 328
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:02 pm

nine4nine wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
I don’t even think their first MAX has rolled out of the FAL yet. You realize there are plenty of other airlines that are also in this situation. When the 787 was grounded 5 years ago, you didn’t see airlines go out and start buying A330s and A350s. Once is the aircraft is back in the air people are going to forget the aircraft was ever in this situation. I bet many often forget about the 787.



Huge difference between the 787 program and the MAX. While there were those battery over heating issues and a small fire on one 787, there were no fatal crashes involved. So I think it will be a very long time before anyone forgets this issue as pertains the MAX.



Totally agree. Hell, my MOTHER (who knows little about aviation) was asking me about this yesterday.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Future - Bright or Bleak?

Mon Apr 22, 2019 2:10 pm

Well every passenger as they book flights can decide which to fly on. Once the MAX is back in the air much will subside. If the public is leery Airbus will rule the skies. If it doesn't matter to them they will select the cheapest fare.

There are a number of carriers worldwide that have over ordered planes. AS will be happy to take over the slots opening up for a few dozen.

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