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Veigar
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:11 am

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Whether it is the NMA or A220, I think it is reasonable for Southwest to look at options in the next decade. Their business model has evolved towards higher volume routes, but they still have many small routes.

Markets like El Paso to San Antonio or St Louis to Omaha or Kansas City to Indianapolis are too big for the 737-8. They have plenty of 737-700s with a decade or more of remaining life so it isn’t a decision that has to be made quickly. If Southwest wants to maintain 2-3 daily flights in markets like these, they need a plane with 150 or fewer seats otherwise yields and load factors will be unsustainable.



Yeah, super unsustainable. Dunno what it is with posts like these all over Anet acting as if WN is in a crisis and NEEDS a different aircraft type because they haven't been doing this successfully for almost half of a century now.. what about airlines that only operate A320?
 
gokmengs
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:14 am

N809FR wrote:
Would love if the part of the article about the A220 wasn’t behind a paywall. Anyone care to give a brief synopsis?

I second this, can anyone help?
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YoungDon
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:21 am

airzona11 wrote:
YoungDon wrote:
They should certainly look into the A220. But they really need to look at themselves and decide who they want to be going forward. They have long since graduated from niche LCC and are starting to max out the growth they can achieve with their current fleet. Stepping down and competing in smaller markets makes more sense to me than trying to make the jump to more international markets - they would have a lot less issues with name recognition and brand value in a place like AVL or CID than they have had in places like MEX. They are big enough that they can probably absorb the additional costs associated with having two aircraft types, provided they can get the labor side worked out sufficiently. Smaller aircraft seems like a logical progression for them to fuel mid-term growth.


However, going down market is not the way to profitability. The only way to do that is via connection carriers with lower costs. WN has some of the highest paid staff in the industry. More 737s to 738s is the move. Then the potential from 738s to 7310s. All airlines are packing more seats in larger narrowbodies. WN is the largest domestic airline in the world, profitability has stayed consistent, they know how to run an airline. With their current fleet, Southwest could start to enter more coast to coast flights, in addition to Hawaii. SFO/LAX/PHX/LAS/SAN to BOS/NYC etc are still small if nonexistent for them.


Right, the staffing cost part was why I mentioned the labor side of things - it doesn't seem that it would be quite cut and dry to get cabin crews for competitive rates at an airline that only has one type and high staff costs. With that said, it's certainly not impossible.

If they can get the cost structure right there are quite a few smaller markets that Southwest could go into and very likely make quite a bit of money on with a very efficient small airplanes. I guess the rub would always be that, all other things being equal, you're always going to make more money filling a bigger plane than a smaller one, so why go through all the hassle to grow downward? It's a fair point. Southwest has certainly been successful with their current business model and it will be interesting to see where they go from here in the context of the operational challenges they've had lately.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:25 am

Veigar wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
Whether it is the NMA or A220, I think it is reasonable for Southwest to look at options in the next decade. Their business model has evolved towards higher volume routes, but they still have many small routes.

Markets like El Paso to San Antonio or St Louis to Omaha or Kansas City to Indianapolis are too big for the 737-8. They have plenty of 737-700s with a decade or more of remaining life so it isn’t a decision that has to be made quickly. If Southwest wants to maintain 2-3 daily flights in markets like these, they need a plane with 150 or fewer seats otherwise yields and load factors will be unsustainable.



Yeah, super unsustainable. Dunno what it is with posts like these all over Anet acting as if WN is in a crisis and NEEDS a different aircraft type because they haven't been doing this successfully for almost half of a century now.. what about airlines that only operate A320?


Because there are lots of markets that can't support WN's flights on 143 or 149 seat planes. My home airport, CRP, has pretty limited connection opportunities due to the number of seats they need to fill on each flight. There are lots of destinations available from HOU, SAT, AUS, or DAL that are not bookable from CRP. This causes lots of leakage.
 
Strato2
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:23 am

lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
rjmf22 wrote:
I don't think WN would ever acquire the a220. However the E2 is far more likely as stated above. I wonder what the chances are that they're thinking of something smaller, like the E175 for smaller airports with less capacity?

If WN was to invest in another aircraft type than the 737 (especially in a different size category), all bets are off: they'd be irresponsible to go to the E2 IF the only reason is Boeing.
If they go to the E2 route, it'll be because the E2 has favorable numbers for their needs; similarly, if they go the A220 route, it'll be because the A220 has favorable numbers for their needs.

If people believe otherwise, they are kidding themselves. WN has a financial responsibility to their shareholders; doing otherwise would result in a lawsuit as they'd be robbed from profit.
Note that I said "the xxx has favorable numbers"; this can be achieved by a very favorable acquisition/spare/training price set by the OEM (and that might as well what Boeing would do to keep Airbus out of WN property).

Agreed, if WN could adopt a 2nd type. They need a pilot contract, supply chain...

I don't think they are ready.

Lightsaber


Said every airline out there flying multiple types.
 
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:38 am

wjcandee wrote:
In order to make their actions seem less anticompetitive, they talked about how great the 717s would be and how two fleets would be okay and how they were prepared to learn from Airtran and blah blah and it was total nonsense.

Looks like ol' Gary is continuing the subterfuge then:

Gary Kelley wrote:
Beyond Hawaii, we've got 50 more destinations that we are continuing to monitor and examine and consider for Southwest service. That won't be all in a year. That will be over a long period of time. That equates to the potential to add 500 more aircraft, more 737 aircraft to our fleet, and these are all expansion opportunities in North America and South America, all of that is dependent upon continuing to maintain low cost, low fares, and of course, high flying service.
...
So, we've got a medium-sized narrow-body fleet. If you think about bigger or smaller, I think the smaller is, we've looked at many times and always concluded that the cost and the market opportunity just weren't right for us and it was also a distraction from what has now turned out to be over the past 5 years, a vast opportunity to continue to grow with just what we've got. The 737 is going to do the mission just fine to Hawaii. We don't have Europe on our list. It could do that mission potentially as well. Does that eventually lead to bigger airplane ideas? Maybe. But I've told everybody who asked that we are not spending any time looking at anything in terms of size different than what we have.

So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy

Sorry, Airbus fans, but it's right from the horse's mouth.

The (projected) 500 more aircraft are going to be more 737 aircraft.

They've looked at smaller aircraft and concluded the cost and opportunity aren't right for them.

In fact he's called the examination of smaller aircraft a distraction that takes away from what they've done well for the last five years!

Dang, they had an entire fleet of efficient (for their time) 717s in house, and could not make it work.

They ended up paying one of their biggest competitors to take them off their hands!

If that doesn't tell you what the true situation is, you just aren't listening.

Of course he's going to say good things about Airbus products and say he's always going to be evaluating them, but read what he said: he's doing that out of a sense of duty.

Basically he wants leverage to negotiate with Boeing and he wants to be able to react to any competitor who operates Airbus.

With regard to Airbus, he's being diligent and polite, but that's it.

Ref: viewtopic.php?t=1420323&start=100#p21279053
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wjcandee
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 8:01 am

Revelation wrote:
Looks like ol' Gary is continuing the subterfuge then:


Not at all. He's saying exactly what I said. They have no interest in a different aircraft type. He's being completely-straight. "We have to look at it because we have a duty to, but we're not buying it." And I explained why one would look at it even if you're not buying it.

What I said about the 717s was that at the time of the merger, 2010, they said they were going to look at AIrtran's business and learn from it, and keep the 717s, but not add first class and not add bag fees.

By 2014, they were blaming "high fuel costs" as the reason for dumping the 717s and dehubbing ATL, which I think was Kelly's expectation all along. In other words, they "looked at" Airtran's business and practices and "learned" that they didn't like them, even if Airtran's technology was light-years ahead of theirs.

Oh, yeah, the other thing they got was slots at LGA and DCA. I forgot to mention that. But getting Airtran out of the markets in which they competed and eliminating Airtran before it tried to grow into WN markets was critical. At the time of the merger, WN's costs were something like 25 percent higher than Airtran, and WN's fares were even higher than that. Airtran was keeping fares down generally, and WN did the whole industry a favor by taking them out.
 
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:51 am

wjcandee wrote:
What I said about the 717s was that at the time of the merger, 2010, they said they were going to look at AIrtran's business and learn from it, and keep the 717s, but not add first class and not add bag fees.

By 2014, they were blaming "high fuel costs" as the reason for dumping the 717s and dehubbing ATL, which I think was Kelly's expectation all along. In other words, they "looked at" Airtran's business and practices and "learned" that they didn't like them, even if Airtran's technology was light-years ahead of theirs.

Ok, it seems our theories are more similar than different.

We both agree that WN was going to buy AirTran mainly to get rid of a competitor and to get its hands on valuable assets such as 737s with trained crews and LGA/DCA slots.

The difference comes when you suggest GK had an expectation that 717s would not work out.

The way I read the comments I quoted:

I think the smaller is, we've looked at many times and always concluded that the cost and the market opportunity just weren't right for us and it was also a distraction from what has now turned out to be over the past 5 years, a vast opportunity to continue to grow with just what we've got.

... suggests to me they did have an expectation that the 717 would work out in smaller markets, but in the end it was a "distraction" from what they "got", an all 737 fleet.

DDR wrote:
The 717 costs more to operate than an A220. The 717 would not have worked at WN. In the future, the A220 just might.

The 717 had similar costs per seat to the 737NG that WN was operating at the time. The A220 will have similar costs per seat to the MAX that WN plans as its NG replacement.

The issue is that WN's labor costs don't make sense in the sub-MAX market where they will have to compete with regionals, and the opportunity for WN isn't like DL who uses 717s as cost leaders to feed its mega-hubs. Add to that the cost of training and spares and disruptions due to a mixed fleet, you can see why the CEO called small markets a distraction for WN.

If it makes anyone feel better, I think Moxy's approach of targeting underserved markets with A220 and keeping costs low is pretty promising. The big difference with WN is that WN pays pilots and crew at the high end of the scale and they can't make that up when targeting small markets.
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keesje
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:01 am

It hasn't much to do with the MAX crises.

Southwest postponed their small 737-7 order. As did #2 customer Westjet, before the MAX crashes.
https://blog.wandr.me/2018/01/boeings-737-max-7-southwest/

The A223 weighs 6t less than the 737-7 and has better, quieter engines. That creates a huge long term cost advantage.

Southwest will buy 737s, as long as it is a good idea. Not forever. Kelly says southwest will keep buying aircraft from Boeing. He doesn't say only from Boeing.
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2019/04/23/southwest-looking-at-jets-others-than-boeing-737s/

That Kelly sent a team to Airbus to disucss the A220, shouldn't surprise anyone.
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:32 am

keesje wrote:
The A223 weighs 6t less than the 737-7 and has better, quieter engines. That creates a huge long term cost advantage.

Integrating a second type into the WN fleet while trying to match fares with regionals while paying mainline wages creates a huge long term cost and profit disadvantage.

The A220 will have a much better chance in the Moxy operation, IMHO.

I think the jury's out on B6, they've never made significant money with their smaller planes from what I'm told, and their cost base is rising.

keesje wrote:
That Kelly sent a team to Airbus to disucss the A220, shouldn't surprise anyone.

Indeed not, since we have a direct quote from him on the topic:

So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy

No CEO wants to be open to the accusation of not doing their duty.

I hope Airbus doesn't spend too much on the wining and dining because they aren't going to be getting any business from WN, IMHO.
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cledaybuck
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:26 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
Hopefully, A.net will display banners with crisis hotlines based in the US at the top of the thread if this order ever happens.

They can recycle the one's they used in Europe when the A380 was discontinued.
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cledaybuck
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 12:28 pm

Bobloblaw wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.

The MAX 7 is the 700 replacement. Southwest is looking at the A220 so they can understand the economics of the plane that delta and JetBlue will be flying. Southwest had evaluated just about every type of plane in the past including the Avro85s. Doesn’t mean they are going to buy them.

I think the MAX 8 is the 700 replacement.
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lostsound
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:27 pm

I feel the only reason SWA would get the A220 is to scare Moxy. I believe Moxy's business model of flying direct routes with no competition is likely to hurt Southwest the most given the saturation of their domestic network.
 
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yowza
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 2:44 pm

Let's say that Boeing isn't able to address the MCAS issues by October 2019. Does this change anything?

YOWza
 
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Veigar
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 3:02 pm

yowza wrote:
Let's say that Boeing isn't able to address the MCAS issues by October 2019. Does this change anything?

YOWza



Almost certainly not.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:11 pm

Revelation wrote:

The issue is that WN's labor costs don't make sense in the sub-MAX market where they will have to compete with regionals, and the opportunity for WN isn't like DL who uses 717s as cost leaders to feed its mega-hubs. Add to that the cost of training and spares and disruptions due to a mixed fleet, you can see why the CEO called small markets a distraction for WN.


It's an interesting thing with the RJ competition issue here but there are two things to look at in detail:

If the C-series (heh) costs (and I'm including crew here) are comparable to the MAX, then it's pretty much a wash what airframe carries the passenger's butts to the destination

The regionals are saddled with a restrictive scope clause under the contracts they operate under with the majors, so they can't be reactive or dynamic in any meaningful way. Can't add seats, can't add lines or routes. Can't do much without concessions to mainline kicking in, so they really have their hands tied behind their backs. Entering smaller markets would really squeeze the tube of toothpaste in entertaining ways, and who knows where it'll squirt out.
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:27 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Im sure they're watching, but they aren't buying. Like Weatherpilot says it would be far more likely for WN to buy a E2-jet.


WN is married to the 737. Does that make them married to Boeing ?

All other things being equal, it would be advantageous for WN to have 2 suppliers competing for their orders.

Now if one plane is better than the other, it's an even easier choice.

If Boeing attached a 737 cockpit to the Embraer, with some MCAS2 magic so that it shares the 737 type rating, that would be another story, but that's not gonna happen, obviously.
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SelseyBill
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:34 pm

wrongwayup wrote:
........Southwest will be a tough (not impossible though) nut for Airbus to crack - a lot of infrastructure built around the 737.......


.....true, but support infrastructure might not necessarily be initially necessary, if say; for example any nominal WN A220's were based, leased and operated from BFM under a contract maintenance arrangement with a manufacturer with pilot training and simulator facilities, based for arguments sake in errrrrrmmmm; say; the greater Mobile Bay Area.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:44 pm

Does Southwest have a need for a plane to run on long - thin routes? Or, do they wish to continue the multiple connection model to get to a destination reasonably far away? My cousin takes Southwest CLE- to wherever, often SAN on business trips, or Florida, and multiple connections are the norm. Might the C-Series (sorry, I just can't call it an Airbus!) change that part of their business model if there is a need for longer distance nonstops?

Thanks for listening.
 
swacle
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 4:48 pm

Aptivaboy wrote:
Does Southwest have a need for a plane to run on long - thin routes? Or, do they wish to continue the multiple connection model to get to a destination reasonably far away? My cousin takes Southwest CLE- to wherever, often SAN on business trips, or Florida, and multiple connections are the norm. Might the C-Series (sorry, I just can't call it an Airbus!) change that part of their business model if there is a need for longer distance nonstops?

Thanks for listening.


Southwest does not sell multiple connection flights, barring irregular operations and reroutes.
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WayexTDI
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:05 pm

swacle wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
Does Southwest have a need for a plane to run on long - thin routes? Or, do they wish to continue the multiple connection model to get to a destination reasonably far away? My cousin takes Southwest CLE- to wherever, often SAN on business trips, or Florida, and multiple connections are the norm. Might the C-Series (sorry, I just can't call it an Airbus!) change that part of their business model if there is a need for longer distance nonstops?

Thanks for listening.


Southwest does not sell multiple connection flights, barring irregular operations and reroutes.

Maybe not multiple connection flights (such as plane change), but multiple stop for sure: CLE-SAN, on 4/25, can run WN573 CLE-BNA, then WN1236 BNA-AUS-SAN with a plane change in BNA.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:37 pm

swacle wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
Does Southwest have a need for a plane to run on long - thin routes? Or, do they wish to continue the multiple connection model to get to a destination reasonably far away? My cousin takes Southwest CLE- to wherever, often SAN on business trips, or Florida, and multiple connections are the norm. Might the C-Series (sorry, I just can't call it an Airbus!) change that part of their business model if there is a need for longer distance nonstops?

Thanks for listening.


Southwest does not sell multiple connection flights, barring irregular operations and reroutes.


Yes they do, I have seen a triple connection flight recently that blew my mind. Double connections are the most common. I just looked up SJU-PHX of the 9 options 6 of them are double connections. What's even worst are itineraries with a direct flight then and a connection :banghead:
 
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yowza
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 5:58 pm

Veigar wrote:
Almost certainly not.

I'm very much in the camp that WN is Boeing through and through and that it will take a huge swing to change that. With that said how much of their future can they tie to a single - possibly flawed - type. Let's say the MCAS issue isn't resolved till April 2020, then what? At what point do other contenders really become contenders?

YOWza
 
Lootess
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 6:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
rjmf22 wrote:
I don't think WN would ever acquire the a220. However the E2 is far more likely as stated above. I wonder what the chances are that they're thinking of something smaller, like the E175 for smaller airports with less capacity?

If WN was to invest in another aircraft type than the 737 (especially in a different size category), all bets are off: they'd be irresponsible to go to the E2 IF the only reason is Boeing.
If they go to the E2 route, it'll be because the E2 has favorable numbers for their needs; similarly, if they go the A220 route, it'll be because the A220 has favorable numbers for their needs.

If people believe otherwise, they are kidding themselves. WN has a financial responsibility to their shareholders; doing otherwise would result in a lawsuit as they'd be robbed from profit.
Note that I said "the xxx has favorable numbers"; this can be achieved by a very favorable acquisition/spare/training price set by the OEM (and that might as well what Boeing would do to keep Airbus out of WN property).

Agreed, if WN could adopt a 2nd type. They need a pilot contract, supply chain...

I don't think they are ready.

Lightsaber


Largest domestic airline and not being ready doesn't make sense to me. They could do a lot of things if they wanted to, just like any legacy.
 
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par13del
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Agreed, if WN could adopt a 2nd type. They need a pilot contract, supply chain...
Lightsaber

If WN get's another fleet type they would be the first airline in the USA of any major size that would have all its pilots flying all its a/c under a single contract with a single wage scale, no need for a new contract, I would be shocked if the existing contract does not allow a secondary wage scale.
 
RobertPhoenix
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
I hope Airbus doesn't spend too much on the wining and dining because they aren't going to be getting any business from WN, IMHO.


I sometimes think I must be dreaming because I clearly remember that WN paid a deposit to Airbus so that Airbus would spend time negotiating with them (presumably about A320) My memory says it was $50M, and I assume that they got that back and more from Boeing when they forfeited that deposit. My memory says it might have been 15 years ago or more.

However, I can never find any record of this with Google, so I'm wondering if I simply invented it !
 
INFINITI329
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:29 pm

Southwest is gauging the threat of the A223s ( this felt so weird to type :vomit: ). I believe they come to the realization that this plane in the hands in their competitors poses a huge issue. It's one thing when you and your competitors are flying similar equipment on given routes, but when your competitors now have superior equipment on competing routes you now have a problem. I believe that Southwest is questioning whether or not the Max 7 will be able to effectively complete head to head with the next generation of narrowbodies. Yes, the Max 7 has more seats than the A223 but it's pointless if those seats are empty. I believe the purpose of this trip to Europe is to re-evaluate if the Max 7 is, in fact, the right aircraft for them moving forward.

I call BS on Gary Kelly's notion that there over 50 destinations in North America left to serve by WN's 737s. I am struggling to find 20, to be honest. Southwest needs to diverse below 150 seats if they wish not to be run off routes by their competitors (with E2s or A220s) as well as open up new markets both domestic & international where the MAX 7 is over kill. On a larger note, I believe the Max 9 or 10 will happen which I think is the right move, especially for routes that sees multiple 738s a day.
 
wrongwayup
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 7:58 pm

I can recall an analysis I did a few years back showing all the nonstop routes Southwest had dropped since the induction of the NG. There were a few hundred if memory serves. Stands to reason that between a modicum of economic growth from then to now plus a more efficient airplane on the route,many of them could again support service. Maybe not 50 destinations, but certainly 50 routes.
 
swacle
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:44 pm

INFINITI329 wrote:
swacle wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
Does Southwest have a need for a plane to run on long - thin routes? Or, do they wish to continue the multiple connection model to get to a destination reasonably far away? My cousin takes Southwest CLE- to wherever, often SAN on business trips, or Florida, and multiple connections are the norm. Might the C-Series (sorry, I just can't call it an Airbus!) change that part of their business model if there is a need for longer distance nonstops?

Thanks for listening.


Southwest does not sell multiple connection flights, barring irregular operations and reroutes.


Yes they do, I have seen a triple connection flight recently that blew my mind. Double connections are the most common. I just looked up SJU-PHX of the 9 options 6 of them are double connections. What's even worst are itineraries with a direct flight then and a connection :banghead:


There is not a single double connect listed for SJU-PHX or PHX-SJU for tomorrow with a return on 4/28. 6 of the 9 options have 2 or more STOPS but only 1 connection. 2128/936 for example has a CONNECTION in BWI, and a STOP (no change of plane) in ABQ. How to tell the difference? Look for the arrow pointing from one plane to another. That is aconnection. If there is a city and a ground time listed, that is a diret (through) flight, no change of planes. While other airlines may publish a "through flight" with a change of gauge effectively making them connections, a stop on WN just a quick turn, you don't get off the plane. There is a big difference between the two.

So again I say, Southwest does not publish double (or triple) connections as regularly scheduled service. Multiple stops, yes, multiple connections, no.
Aircraft Flown: SF3 DH8 DH4 328 ERJ CRJ CR7 CR9 E70 E75 D9S M80 712 72S 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 752 318 319 32
 
Varsity1
Posts: 1932
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:48 pm

A friend in the pilot union confirms they are demo'ing the A220.

It is more of a concern that an AD on the 737 could ground the entire airline overnight. The same risk exists for all single fleet type airlines.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
swacle
Posts: 491
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:56 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
A friend in the pilot union confirms they are demo'ing the A220.

It is more of a concern that an AD on the 737 could ground the entire airline overnight. The same risk exists for all single fleet type airlines.


The reality is (in my opinion only as an enthusiast) it is only a matter of time before a new type is introduced. At 200, 300, 400 planes a single type is fine. At 750 with "demand for up to 500 more 737's" that leaves a total of 1250 planes to be delivered over the next 20 years. Unless Boeing can send WN 60+ planes every year, or about 15% of total output at the new 42/month rate) for 20+ years that is not possible. Adding a 2nd type then becomes the only way to continue growth and the A223 (and maybe the long wished for/rumored CS500/A220-500?) seems like the best option out there right now.
Aircraft Flown: SF3 DH8 DH4 328 ERJ CRJ CR7 CR9 E70 E75 D9S M80 712 72S 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 739ER 752 318 319 32
 
ucdtim17
Posts: 564
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 6:38 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 9:57 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
A friend in the pilot union confirms they are demo'ing the A220.

It is more of a concern that an AD on the 737 could ground the entire airline overnight. The same risk exists for all single fleet type airlines.


For this reason I'm surprised they've always kept all their eggs in one basket. Seems crazy risky for such a large company to be entirely dependent on basically one model of plane from one manufacturer.
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1167
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:00 pm

ucdtim17 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
A friend in the pilot union confirms they are demo'ing the A220.

It is more of a concern that an AD on the 737 could ground the entire airline overnight. The same risk exists for all single fleet type airlines.


For this reason I'm surprised they've always kept all their eggs in one basket. Seems crazy risky for such a large company to be entirely dependent on basically one model of plane from one manufacturer.

Many airlines just do that, it's not new. WN, however, did start the trend.
 
Lufthansa
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Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:17 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
ucdtim17 wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
A friend in the pilot union confirms they are demo'ing the A220.

It is more of a concern that an AD on the 737 could ground the entire airline overnight. The same risk exists for all single fleet type airlines.


For this reason I'm surprised they've always kept all their eggs in one basket. Seems crazy risky for such a large company to be entirely dependent on basically one model of plane from one manufacturer.

Many airlines just do that, it's not new. WN, however, did start the trend.



Not really, there's only a handful of BIG airlines doing it. Ryanair and Easyjet being the other obvious two. Maybe Vueling.
The others are carriers like comair of South Africa. A few smaller Indian LCCs, ditto for some latin ones. It makes sense in
those cases to keep their operations simple.
 
Delta777Jet
Posts: 1401
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2000 6:19 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:45 pm

Could WN just cancel the 737-7/8 MAX orders ?

Would be nice they go with A-220-300 and eventually becoming the launch customer of the A-220-500 !
B-717/722/737-200/300/400/500/600/700/800/900/B-747-100/200/400/SP/8i/B-752/3/B-762/3/4/B-772/LR/300ER/B-787-8/-9/DC-10-10/30/L1011-1/500/MD81/82/83/90/A-319/320/321/AB6/312/313/332/333/342/343/346/359/388/TU154/IL18/ATR42/72/DH4/DH3/E145/E170/190/CR2/7/9
 
bob75013
Posts: 863
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:46 am

[threeid][/threeid]
Delta777Jet wrote:
Could WN just cancel the 737-7/8 MAX orders ?

Would be nice they go with A-220-300 and eventually becoming the launch customer of the A-220-500 !


It's nice to have dreamers on a.net, but that's all it is: a dream.

Yes, and a civilization ending asteroid could hit earth at exactly 04:03:22 CDT tomorrow morning, too. That's about as likely.
 
kaneporta1
Posts: 727
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:02 am

Thing is, the A220 makes perfect sense for Southwest. This is not a 120-seat 717.

We're talking about an aircraft that has the same capacity (but probably 2 to 5 more seats) as the 737-700, similar range (or slightly more), 5500lbs lighter (MTOW), with wider seats, wider aisle, bigger windows, more galley capacity and a quieter cabin.

And compared to the 737-7, the above mostly still apply, but with a slight seat (2-5 seats) disadvantage and a 28000lbs(!) weight advantage.

Also looking at how Delta is currently deploying the A220 at their competitors' hubs, Southwest cannot be too happy at the prospect of competing against this aircraft with the 737...
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
jed747
Posts: 47
Joined: Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:23 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:06 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.

The MAX 7 is the 700 replacement. Southwest is looking at the A220 so they can understand the economics of the plane that delta and JetBlue will be flying. Southwest had evaluated just about every type of plane in the past including the Avro85s. Doesn’t mean they are going to buy them.

Hello myself and some friends that are huge BAe-146/RJ fans were surprised to read that SWA actually evaluated the RJ85. Sure it would have been great to see an RJ in SWA colors, but deep down we all know that only the West Coast routes that the 146 once flew for PSA and AirCal would have been the only routes it would have possibly worked on. Does anyone out there have any more information of the SWA evaluation of the 146. I have a friend that is soon to turn in what many that worked at BAe feel is going to be the definitive book on the BAe-146/RJ and he would like to include any information and interviews he can on the SWA evaluation. If anyone can assist please ping me. Thank you John
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1092
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:10 am

My gut says they wouldn’t do this after they walked away from the 717s previously. However, just like a happy employee can get an interview from another company they think they won’t take and end up taking it, any time any airline evaluates a plane there is a chance it becomes appealing. So I would certainly not rule it out. This isn’t Herb’s Southwest anymore.
 
LDRA
Posts: 272
Joined: Fri Jan 15, 2016 3:01 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:16 am

All that trouble for nothing. Bring back 737-200; Stick a pair of PW1500G engines on it, update the cockpit to 737Max standard. Voala, 737-2Max. WN will order at least 300 of these
 
User avatar
SierraPacific
Posts: 308
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 1:48 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:49 am

par13del wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Agreed, if WN could adopt a 2nd type. They need a pilot contract, supply chain...
Lightsaber

If WN get's another fleet type they would be the first airline in the USA of any major size that would have all its pilots flying all its a/c under a single contract with a single wage scale, no need for a new contract, I would be shocked if the existing contract does not allow a secondary wage scale.


They could have a UPS type pilot contract where every pilot is paid the same on every fleet. It would be a very easy sell to the pilot group and wouldn't be a big deal IMHO
 
737max8
Posts: 522
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:54 am

So....where is the A220 mockup in WN colors?
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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VV
Posts: 837
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:54 am

The story would be more credible if it was about Southwest looking at A320neo family.
 
vfw614
Posts: 3785
Joined: Mon Dec 10, 2001 12:34 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:12 am

Bobloblaw wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.

The MAX 7 is the 700 replacement. Southwest is looking at the A220 so they can understand the economics of the plane that delta and JetBlue will be flying. Southwest had evaluated just about every type of plane in the past including the Avro85s. Doesn’t mean they are going to buy them.


As most airlines operating the A319ceo and 737-700 are not replacing this type with A319neo or 737 MAX7, I don't see why the only airline to which this rationale shold not apply would be Southwest. Either they should gradually go for a larger plane (just as they moved from the 737-200/500 to the 737-700) or for a similarly-sized plane with superior economics (which may be the 737 MAX7 is Boeing is willing to give them away...). Anything else would be foolish.
 
Bobloblaw
Posts: 2406
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:15 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:57 am

jed747 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.

The MAX 7 is the 700 replacement. Southwest is looking at the A220 so they can understand the economics of the plane that delta and JetBlue will be flying. Southwest had evaluated just about every type of plane in the past including the Avro85s. Doesn’t mean they are going to buy them.

Hello myself and some friends that are huge BAe-146/RJ fans were surprised to read that SWA actually evaluated the RJ85. Sure it would have been great to see an RJ in SWA colors, but deep down we all know that only the West Coast routes that the 146 once flew for PSA and AirCal would have been the only routes it would have possibly worked on. Does anyone out there have any more information of the SWA evaluation of the 146. I have a friend that is soon to turn in what many that worked at BAe feel is going to be the definitive book on the BAe-146/RJ and he would like to include any information and interviews he can on the SWA evaluation. If anyone can assist please ping me. Thank you John

It was 25 years ago and WN only did it to get an understanding of the economics. They were never going to fly it themselves
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21181
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:15 am

kaneporta1 wrote:
Thing is, the A220 makes perfect sense for Southwest. This is not a 120-seat 717.

We're talking about an aircraft that has the same capacity (but probably 2 to 5 more seats) as the 737-700, similar range (or slightly more), 5500lbs lighter (MTOW), with wider seats, wider aisle, bigger windows, more galley capacity and a quieter cabin.

And compared to the 737-7, the above mostly still apply, but with a slight seat (2-5 seats) disadvantage and a 28000lbs(!) weight advantage.

Also looking at how Delta is currently deploying the A220 at their competitors' hubs, Southwest cannot be too happy at the prospect of competing against this aircraft with the 737...

Thing is, your argument doesn't make perfect sense, since you aren't addressing Gary's concerns:

I think the smaller is, we've looked at many times and always concluded that the cost and the market opportunity just weren't right for us

The A220 has some wonderful properties, but those do not address the basic fact that WN's cost structure only goes up when you add A220s and it doesn't improve market opportunity over what they already serve with 737-7.

People seem to want to see this for more than what it is, WN performing due diligence. We have no evidence it is anything more, and we have the words of the CEO in #56 telling us that the plan is to keep adding 737s and that plan is not going to change.

I understand the current crisis gives this story some legs, but, again, A220 doesn't change the key concerns Gary has, cost and market opportunity.

DL's market opportunity is different than WN's. DL is primarily using 717s and A220s as regional feeders for its hubs. Since many of these pax go on longhaul aircraft to complete their journeys and since DL focuses on frequent fliers and corporate contracts, they don't have to make money on the 717/A220 legs. It's a different market opportunity than WN, and one that can absorb costs in ways WN cannot afford to do.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
micstatic
Posts: 733
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:17 am

LDRA wrote:
All that trouble for nothing. Bring back 737-200; Stick a pair of PW1500G engines on it, update the cockpit to 737Max standard. Voala, 737-2Max. WN will order at least 300 of these


Shrinks don't work out to well. Example. 737-500, 737-600, A318
S340,DH8,AT7,CR2/7,E135/45/170/190,319,320,717,732,733,734,735,737,738,744,752,762,763,764,772,M80,M90
 
Gulfstream500
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:30 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 11:33 am

Should WN order the A220, it will not arrive until past 2021. Don’t get too excited.

Also:

Any updates on NK ordering the E2 or A220?
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
WayexTDI
Posts: 1167
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:18 pm

VV wrote:
The story would be more credible if it was about Southwest looking at A320neo family.

Actually no, as the A320neo Family would be a direct replacement of the 737NG/MAX; which WN is very unlikely to do.
The A220, on the other hand, is a class below; if WN were to introduce a 2nd type in their fleet, it'd most likely be of a different size than the 737 (either bigger or smaller).
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 21181
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:48 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
VV wrote:
The story would be more credible if it was about Southwest looking at A320neo family.

Actually no, as the A320neo Family would be a direct replacement of the 737NG/MAX; which WN is very unlikely to do.
The A220, on the other hand, is a class below; if WN were to introduce a 2nd type in their fleet, it'd most likely be of a different size than the 737 (either bigger or smaller).

The next airplane model WN is most likely to induct is the 737-10. It improves costs by adding many more seats without adding more pilots and by not requiring a lot of investment in more spares and more training.

WN has been pretty clear about saying they cannot make the smaller markets work for them and that they plan to stay an all 737 airline. Given those constraints, and their mainline cost structure, the 737-10 makes more sense than any A220 does, IMHO.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own

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