Gulfstream500
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 12:51 pm

I’ve also found this:

Kelly sent managers to Europe

Only one plane puts the tight ties between Boeing and Southwest Airlines to the test. As reported by "The Air Current", Southwest Airlines has sent a team to Europe in the middle of grounding the 737 MAX, which has made a picture of the Airbus A220 at a local operator.

According to Kelly, Southwest Airlines had previously talked directly to Airbus about the former CSeries. "The A220 meets the criteria we use to look at airplanes," the manager said

Translated from German
https://www.aero.de/news-31505/Southwes ... -A220.html

I’ve also found an article from simple flying:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/simpleflyi ... order/amp/
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Amiga500
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:07 pm

No chance in hell they'll move away from the 737.

Now, when Boeing does eventually do NSA, then its a bigger question (ironic that a better technical product would introduce more order risk).
 
tphuang
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 1:09 pm

I don't see any reason for A220 in their fleet. The increased complexity is not worth it. Also if they really needed a smaller capacity aircraft, E2-95 is the way to go. They don't need A220's range.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:36 pm

Gary Kelly this morning added more for this thread to speculate around:

"We're an all Boeing 737 carrier," Kelly also said on CNBC, "That doesn't mean we'll be an all 737 carrier into perpetuity."
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/southwest-airlines/2019/04/25/southwest-posts-record-q1-revenuedespite-737-max-grounding-headaches
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many321
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 3:53 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
Gary Kelly this morning added more for this thread to speculate around:

"We're an all Boeing 737 carrier," Kelly also said on CNBC, "That doesn't mean we'll be an all 737 carrier into perpetuity."
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/southwest-airlines/2019/04/25/southwest-posts-record-q1-revenuedespite-737-max-grounding-headaches


Yup, he threw up a bone for us. I'd be shocked if they do go with the A220. Though, to be frank it will help them if they want to work at smaller/rural airports with either the A221 or A223. Let's see what happens.
 
kimimm19
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:23 pm

1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.


Don't try making sense. It's misplaced on this forum. Boeing always has the answer, and the E2 series is part of that soon. :white:
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:31 pm

IWMBH wrote:
Im sure they're watching, but they aren't buying. Like Weatherpilot says it would be far more likely for WN to buy a E2-jet.


The world is changing. Both WN and Boeing have changed.

If they go for a non 737 sized plane I say the option exists for a non Boeing for sure.
 
SEA
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:34 pm

WN doesn't just do things for the heck of it, like any business. If they have a need for the A220 and the economics work, then they aren't going to pass on it just because it's not a 737. With that being said, I have to imagine that even if they were to announce today that they are buying the A220, it would be two or three years down the road before they'd introduce one to the fleet..
 
planecane
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:43 pm

kimimm19 wrote:
1900Driver wrote:
You’re all too quick to judge. The A220-300 size advantage & superior casm over the E2 is a far better fit as a 700 replacement. My bet is on the 220-300a in southwest colours.


Don't try making sense. It's misplaced on this forum. Boeing always has the answer, and the E2 series is part of that soon. :white:


That's not the sense I would make. My point is that there is no need for a 737-700 replacement in the next 8-10 years.

By the time they actually need a replacement for the -700, there will be more options and the A220 will probably be offered in an NEO version.

This whole thing about WN serving smaller markets goes against their business model. It would make for high cost stations if they can only support 2 or 3 flights a day, even if using the A220 (the most efficient and versatile aircraft ever built).
 
LDRA
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:53 pm

Are they looking at NEW as well?
 
stburke
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:56 pm

Cue pilots wanting a raise because they'll have to train on a new aircraft type.
Give a pilot a bag of gold and they'll complain how heavy it is.
 
raylee67
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:58 pm

If WN is really interested in A220, it is not the first time WN tries something other than the 737. It has flown a handful of 727 before.

More importantly, the current issue with MAX is telling everyone loudly that this is the end of the 737 line. The basic airframe design can no longer be leveraged for another generation of 737. MAX is going to be the last generation. Boeing's replacement of MAX will not be a 737. WN has based its success partially on the 737. As the 737 line runs out, WN will need to find something else, and it doesn't need to be Boeing's 737 replacement. Management of WN (and any airline) has no emotional attachment with an aircraft type or a manufacturer. They only have emotional attachment to the balance sheet and income statement. I don't think they are seriously thinking using A220 to replace 737, but there is no harm starting to practice evaluating a new aircraft type, which is something they have never done since they have picked the 737.
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:02 pm

I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?
 
maps4ltd
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:15 pm

Erebus wrote:
I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?


That's what we're all wondering. Maybe they could create some buzz around the A220 to get Embraer/Boeing to offer them an E2 at a discount.
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crj900lr
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 5:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
Fargo wrote:
DDR wrote:
Eventually WN will get to the point that growth will be difficult because they will be flying all the routes there are that can sustain 737 size aircraft. In order to continue to grow, they will be forced to look at smaller markets and will need an aircraft smaller than the 737. However that scenario is probably still years away.

No, I'd say it's just around the corner. There really isn't much more WN can do domestically without a smaller aircraft. The A220 would be beautiful in their fleet and enable them to serve markets that have less than 1,000,000 people. Unfortunately, it probably won't happen.

I guess you forget the time they got 717s via the AirTran acquisition, and paid their competitor DL (and are still paying DL) to take them off their hands?



You sure they are still paying DL for these leased aircraft? I thought it was the other way around after the original process of doing all the work on them, which I think WN paid for, after that I believe the deal for most is with Boeing on leases and only a few on a lease that WN actually owned.
 
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:04 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
Gary Kelly this morning added more for this thread to speculate around:

"We're an all Boeing 737 carrier," Kelly also said on CNBC, "That doesn't mean we'll be an all 737 carrier into perpetuity."
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/southwest-airlines/2019/04/25/southwest-posts-record-q1-revenuedespite-737-max-grounding-headaches

On the flip side, Jon Ostrower ( https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 9622690816 ) tweeted:

Southwest confirms @theaircurrent reporting. The airline visited an A220 operator. "We didn’t reveal that we took this trip...This trip was planned a long time ago,” says CEO Gary Kelly, who called the timing coincidental.

... which is the opposite of confirming theaircurrent's report that the visit was a test of WN's relationship with Boeing.

Life's tough out there in the click bait oriented world of modern media.
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:11 pm

crj900lr wrote:
You sure they are still paying DL for these leased aircraft? I thought it was the other way around after the original process of doing all the work on them, which I think WN paid for, after that I believe the deal for most is with Boeing on leases and only a few on a lease that WN actually owned.

My understanding is that what DL pays to lease the aircraft doesn't cover what WN still pays to lease the aircraft from Boeing, but the loss is manageable.

https://aviationweek.com/awin/southwest ... conversion says:

Southwest also says the sublease income it will get from Delta is “essentially a wash” with its ongoing rental expense for the aircraft.

And "essentially a wash" in general means a small loss.

Feel free to provide updated sources, though...
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Varsity1
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:14 pm

stburke wrote:
Cue pilots wanting a raise because they'll have to train on a new aircraft type.


The new wage would be lower, not higher. The A220 is a smaller aircraft. Pilots are aware/accept this.
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keesje
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 6:26 pm

VV wrote:
The story would be more credible if it was about Southwest looking at A320neo family.


Rubbish. The A319/A320 has better engines but the same empty weights as 737-7/-8 and sold out.

The 737-8 will be fine with Southwest. The 500 -700s that will be replaced are what this is about. Southwest postponed their small -7 order already hefore the crashes.

The A223 has Pratt 74 inch geared turbo fans and carries 6t less empty weight. That is a lot of fuel / cash out over 20 years. Boeing knows.

Southwest looks at the aircraft. "Looking" as in sending teams to Maribel and Toulouse for a series of demos and meetings.
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marcelh
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
VV wrote:
The story would be more credible if it was about Southwest looking at A320neo family.

Actually no, as the A320neo Family would be a direct replacement of the 737NG/MAX; which WN is very unlikely to do.
The A220, on the other hand, is a class below; if WN were to introduce a 2nd type in their fleet, it'd most likely be of a different size than the 737 (either bigger or smaller).

The next airplane model WN is most likely to induct is the 737-10. It improves costs by adding many more seats without adding more pilots and by not requiring a lot of investment in more spares and more training.

WN has been pretty clear about saying they cannot make the smaller markets work for them and that they plan to stay an all 737 airline. Given those constraints, and their mainline cost structure, the 737-10 makes more sense than any A220 does, IMHO.

OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:18 pm

No A220s -- no ANYTHING else

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwes ... 49842.html
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:34 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
stburke wrote:
Cue pilots wanting a raise because they'll have to train on a new aircraft type.

The new wage would be lower, not higher. The A220 is a smaller aircraft. Pilots are aware/accept this.

Most probably.

But that's where I see a problem. As soon as an A220 pilot upgrades to a 737 (for a better pay), he will then incur considerable 737 type training costs.

It might be better to instead offer a slightly more attractive pay/career path for A220 drivers - but then limit their ability to switch to another type.

Anyways, my impressions is that SWA gets its 737s so cheap (definitely like north of 75% off for NGs / not that far off for the "Max") that the business case of serving thinner routes (or off peaks current routes) with more expensive (capital per seat) A220 doesn't work just yet. Now, if this Max debacle doesn't get resolved, that's another ball game once the 700s need to be replaced..
Last edited by ExMilitaryEng on Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:48 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
nine4nine
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:36 pm

Erebus wrote:
I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?



Because the E2 is considered an RJ and the A220 mainline.

A220 has more seats, taller cabin height, larger overhead bins, wider seats, wider aisles,larger cargo hold, larger galleys,and more operating range. There’s no comparison!
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:39 pm

bob75013 wrote:
No A220s -- no ANYTHING else

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwes ... 49842.html

Hmm, where have I read similar things in the recent past? :scratchchin:
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texl1649
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:42 pm

Eventually SWA will order something else. It's gonna be a process though to get there, as we all probably realize. Airbus couldn't deliver on a sizeable SWA order for A220's anyway before the mid 2020's at the earliest, so it's probably pretty premature to speculate about, in any case.

It would seem if Boeing moves to a larger baseline NSA, then either an A220 or E2 order for a bunch of 150 seaters would at some point happen (respecting the need to keep just 3 FA's on many legs). It could take 2-10 years though...like DL they like to grab cheap used aircraft/leases when they can instead of placing monster long term orders.
 
LDRA
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:43 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Erebus wrote:
I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?



Because the E2 is considered an RJ and the A220 mainline.

A220 has more seats, taller cabin height, larger overhead bins, wider seats, wider aisles,larger cargo hold, larger galleys,and more operating range. There’s no comparison!


There is very little overlap between E2 and 737, whereas A220 can be stretched to significantly overlap with 737.

So depending on future WN strategic plan. If they want two frame narrow body fleet, they can go with E2 + 737Max8/10. If they still want single type narrow body plus MoM for high seat count, they can go with A220 + 797

But I say the most elegant solution is to make 737-200Max. Take 737-200 fuselage and wing, change engine to PW1500G, update cockpit to Max standard
 
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:50 pm

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The next airplane model WN is most likely to induct is the 737-10. It improves costs by adding many more seats without adding more pilots and by not requiring a lot of investment in more spares and more training.

WN has been pretty clear about saying they cannot make the smaller markets work for them and that they plan to stay an all 737 airline. Given those constraints, and their mainline cost structure, the 737-10 makes more sense than any A220 does, IMHO.

OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?

The WN CEO tells you the answer in #56 above:

WN CEO Gary Kelly wrote:
So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy.

... and that strategy is buying more 737s.
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Sooner787
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:54 pm

Erebus wrote:
I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?


I remember seeing the E2 prototype ( the one with the shark face)

parked at KDAL for several days last summer. I was told

Southwest wanted to kick the tires on the E2, so I'm sure they

probably got a test flight :)
 
marcelh
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 7:57 pm

Revelation wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
The next airplane model WN is most likely to induct is the 737-10. It improves costs by adding many more seats without adding more pilots and by not requiring a lot of investment in more spares and more training.

WN has been pretty clear about saying they cannot make the smaller markets work for them and that they plan to stay an all 737 airline. Given those constraints, and their mainline cost structure, the 737-10 makes more sense than any A220 does, IMHO.

OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?

The WN CEO tells you the answer in #56 above:

WN CEO Gary Kelly wrote:
So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy.

... and that strategy is buying more 737s.

But why looking for a plane you know it doesn’t fit the business model? It just doesn’t make sense.
 
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:03 pm

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
marcelh wrote:
OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?

The WN CEO tells you the answer in #56 above:

WN CEO Gary Kelly wrote:
So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy.

... and that strategy is buying more 737s.

But why looking for a plane you know it doesn’t fit the business model? It just doesn’t make sense.

He tells you: "we have a duty to examine that". It's called due diligence. It covers many things, such as WN knowing if they are getting a good deal from Boeing, WN knowing more about competitor's costs and capabilities, WN learning if there are features it could add to its 737s either via Boeing or 3rd party vendors or in-house upgrades, etc.
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rbavfan
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:09 pm

crj900lr wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Fargo wrote:
No, I'd say it's just around the corner. There really isn't much more WN can do domestically without a smaller aircraft. The A220 would be beautiful in their fleet and enable them to serve markets that have less than 1,000,000 people. Unfortunately, it probably won't happen.

I guess you forget the time they got 717s via the AirTran acquisition, and paid their competitor DL (and are still paying DL) to take them off their hands?



You sure they are still paying DL for these leased aircraft? I thought it was the other way around after the original process of doing all the work on them, which I think WN paid for, after that I believe the deal for most is with Boeing on leases and only a few on a lease that WN actually owned.


Boeing owns the 717's and Delta did a 3 way deal to sublease them from WN till the leases are up. WN paid for the cabin retrofit only. They are not still paying Delta.
 
smartplane
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:14 pm

A visit to Airbus might be as much for information to check out indirectly what pricing Moxy and other possible start-ups are really paying for the A220.

If MAX 7, 8, 9 is being viewed as the true limit of the 737, then the 10 is perhaps now considered a step too far, and the entry size for an A321/A322 to join the fleet.

Or could the Airbus CEO reference to A330NEO prospects, include an A338 lease?
 
boeingmd82
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:40 pm

If Southwest wants to compete with Hawaiian in the inter-island market, they won't be able to use 737NG or MAXs. The 717 would eat the 737's lunch doing that type of work. A A220 sub fleet, only in Hawaii, with a maintenance base and pilot pool based there could be a threat if the engine can handle the high number and fast turnarounds required.
 
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 8:47 pm

bob75013 wrote:
No A220s -- no ANYTHING else

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwes ... 49842.html

You do understand that it's a question of WHEN WN gets another type of aircraft, right? It's not IF, it's WHEN.
I wish for WN to be in business for many more decades; the 737 won't be in production for that long. WN is just delaying the inevitable.

So, why not start now by having a type of different size than the 737? Be it the A220 or the Embraer E2, they might fit very well into WN business plan.
 
rbavfan
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:09 pm

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
marcelh wrote:
OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?

The WN CEO tells you the answer in #56 above:

WN CEO Gary Kelly wrote:
So the A220 fits into that in terms of the eligible to look at. And again, we've been talking and looking at that, but it's simply a long –it's just admitting that we have a duty to examine that. But right now there's no plan at all to deviate from our fleet strategy.

... and that strategy is buying more 737s.

But why looking for a plane you know it doesn’t fit the business model? It just doesn’t make sense.


The primary reason they dumped the 717 was based on CASM. The 717 with Airtran & thier pay levels worked. When they did WN pay levels the CASM of the 73G was lower than the 717 with the 73G having a lot more seats to sell. The A220 reverses that.
 
rbavfan
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:25 pm

nine4nine wrote:
Erebus wrote:
I know that the discussion is around WN and the A220 here but why isn't the E2 part of their evaluation?



Because the E2 is considered an RJ and the A220 mainline.

A220 has more seats, taller cabin height, larger overhead bins, wider seats, wider aisles,larger cargo hold, larger galleys,and more operating range. There’s no comparison!


The Old E jet series 170/175 were considered RJ's & the E190/195 were considered mainline due to seating/weights in the US market. The entire E2 series are too heavy to be considered RJ's by US airline scope and currently would have to be mainline for crew rates.
 
rbavfan
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:29 pm

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
Actually no, as the A320neo Family would be a direct replacement of the 737NG/MAX; which WN is very unlikely to do.
The A220, on the other hand, is a class below; if WN were to introduce a 2nd type in their fleet, it'd most likely be of a different size than the 737 (either bigger or smaller).

The next airplane model WN is most likely to induct is the 737-10. It improves costs by adding many more seats without adding more pilots and by not requiring a lot of investment in more spares and more training.

WN has been pretty clear about saying they cannot make the smaller markets work for them and that they plan to stay an all 737 airline. Given those constraints, and their mainline cost structure, the 737-10 makes more sense than any A220 does, IMHO.

OK, but why spending money on a trip to Europe to look at the A220? Just for fun?


Because it is a business trip. They most likely get a nice meal, see part of the EU & can write it off as a business expense as they are conducting business. Also WN like any other airlines keeps track of their options.
 
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Veigar
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:36 pm

WN Always looks at these airbus aircraft as it is their job to do so. Doesn't mean they will buy. Just their due diligence, no?
 
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longhauler
Posts: 6278
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 12:00 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:41 pm

If an airline only operated 50 aircraft, then the cheapest way to do it is with one type. Same thing with 100 aircraft, maybe even 500 aircraft ... with the right route system.

But, there comes a point in time where the economies of sticking with one type become eclipsed by flying the wrong type on certain routes.

I am not saying that Southwest is there, but rest assured the thought is being bounced around. And, Airbus knows it. They wouldn't be presenting how efficient the A220 is, everyone already knows that. They would start with something along the line of .... if 100 of your fleet of 750 were A220s, this is how much you would have saved ... every year.

Everything would be considered. Pilot training (not as big an increase as everyone here seems to think), scheduling (already less efficient as soon as you enter more than one passenger configuration into the fleet, even if the same type), maintenance (again, working the numbers, not as horrific as one would guess).

The big deal, is that the new type, the subfleet, must be large enough in numbers so that it garners it's own economies of scale. For example, if you have decided to have say one simulator for every 75 aircraft, then the smallest the subfleet should be would be 75 aircraft, to achieve the same cost.

Remember, that one of the most profitable airlines in the United States is Delta Air Lines. Look how many different narrow body types they operate ... profitably.
Just because I stopped arguing, doesn't mean I think you are right. It just means I gave up!
 
StTim
Posts: 3406
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 9:59 pm

I am sure that Airbus et al are not pencilling in any sales for WN. They too know the game. They make the frame as attractive as possile but make no huge discount promises at an early stage of the game. If, and I doubt it, WN become serious then things might change.

I am sure they are not holding their breath in TLS.
 
Aptivaboy
Posts: 779
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:01 pm

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.


Gary Kelly can say all he wants about staying with one aircraft type, but he also has shareholders to please. If the costs involved in picking up another aircraft type indicate that it's worthwhile, then SW will seriously look at it. The shareholders would demand no less. Up until now, going all Boeing has been beneficial and cost-advantageous for Southwest. However, if the MAX groundings drag on, or if Toulouse makes the sweeatheart deal of all sweetheart deals, then it could happen. Do I believe it will happen soon? No. Could it happen if the MAX issues aren't resolved in a timely fashion and Toulouse helps make the costs work out? Yes. Time and cost-benefit analysis will tell the tale, and the beancounters will have their say.

I'll say this, if Airbus could entice Southwest to take on even a single C-Series, it will be the airline sales coup of the century. Even if the odds of it happening in the near term are unlikely, expect them to pull out literally all of the stops.
 
bob75013
Posts: 826
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:01 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
No A220s -- no ANYTHING else

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwes ... 49842.html

You do understand that it's a question of WHEN WN gets another type of aircraft, right? It's not IF, it's WHEN.
I wish for WN to be in business for many more decades; the 737 won't be in production for that long. WN is just delaying the inevitable.

So, why not start now by having a type of different size than the 737? Be it the A220 or the Embraer E2, they might fit very well into WN business plan.



Well, Southwest's CEO answered the "when" question didn't he : NOT ANYTIME SOON.

I agree It will happen eventually, but I'm on record that it'll be bigger( with more range) and not smaller. A 797 with folding wingtips that fits in narrow body gates -- now that's a sure winner.
 
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keesje
Posts: 13044
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:12 pm

Southwest will be competing with A220's for the next 25 years. Delta, Moxy, Republic, Jetblue, who knows who else.
Image
SouthWest postponed most of their small -7 order, early 2018, for 4 years, for a reason.

SW have 500 -700s to replace. People here argue the currently grounded, much heavier, non selling MAX -7 is the way forward for SouthWest really.

Man, they surely love Boeing more than SouthWest :wideeyed:
Last edited by keesje on Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
planecane
Posts: 1041
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:20 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
No A220s -- no ANYTHING else

"Southwest CEO says sticking with Boeing 737 MAX, no current plans for new models"

" Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/southwes ... 49842.html

You do understand that it's a question of WHEN WN gets another type of aircraft, right? It's not IF, it's WHEN.
I wish for WN to be in business for many more decades; the 737 won't be in production for that long. WN is just delaying the inevitable.

So, why not start now by having a type of different size than the 737? Be it the A220 or the Embraer E2, they might fit very well into WN business plan.


How does a smaller than 737-700 fit into their business plan? An airport that doesn't support the minimum number of 737-700 flights per day isn't going to suddenly make sense if you have 10 fewer seats. The speculation in this thread is about something to replace the 737-700 that is more efficient than the MAX7.

After doing some quick research, it seems they have 180 737-700s older than 15 years old. They currently have orders for 276 MAXs. They could retire all 180 older than 15 and still grow the fleet by 94 aircraft by upsizing them and grow capacity by 22% for each replacement. The remaining 330 ish -700s can be put on the routes requiring a sub 150 seet aircraft. This strategy gets them to at least 2028.

Eventually, let's say 15 years from now they will have to switch from the 737 because the 737 line will come to an end. However, they don't need to look at placing orders for another 5-6 years minimum. Boeing will have launched something out of the Embraer JV by then (otherwise why bother with the JV) and likely will be starting to shop the NSA for EIS 2030-2032. Point being that they don't need the A220 now and by the time they actually need to start replacing 737s with something else, there will be more options than there are now. Airbus will probably launch an A320 series replacement by then as well.
 
bob75013
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:22 pm

keesje wrote:
Southwest will be competing with A220's for the next 25 years. Delta, Moxy, Republic, Jetblue, who knows who else.

Image

SouthWest postponed most of their small -7 order, early 2018, for 4 years. They have 500 -700s to replace. People here argue the currently grounded, much heavier, non selling MAX -7 is the way forward for SouthWest really.

Man, they surely love Boeing more than SouthWest :wideeyed:


Perhaps you should buy a few shares of LUV stock and attend the next shareholders meeting. You could tell the CEO what you think.

However since he's quoted as saying that LUV won't be adding any new types "anytime soon," you'll probably be spinning your wheels. But look on the bright side, at least you'll own stock in the most profitable airline company.
 
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Erebus
Posts: 1004
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Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:25 pm

StTim wrote:
I am sure that Airbus et al are not pencilling in any sales for WN. They too know the game. They make the frame as attractive as possile but make no huge discount promises at an early stage of the game. If, and I doubt it, WN become serious then things might change.

I am sure they are not holding their breath in TLS.


Yep. And I don't think Boeing will feel any different about this as well. They too will know the game and see it as an attempt by WN to gain concessions from them. And the CEO's response quoted above that they are just doing their 'due diligence' and will remain with the 737 don't help either. WN has to be a lot more serious than this if this is about extracting better deals.
 
bob75013
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:28 pm

Erebus wrote:
StTim wrote:
I am sure that Airbus et al are not pencilling in any sales for WN. They too know the game. They make the frame as attractive as possile but make no huge discount promises at an early stage of the game. If, and I doubt it, WN become serious then things might change.

I am sure they are not holding their breath in TLS.


Yep. And I don't think Boeing will feel any different about this as well. They too will know the game and see it as an attempt by WN to gain concessions from them. And the CEO's response quoted above that they are just doing their 'due diligence' and will remain with the 737 don't help either. WN has to be a lot more serious than this if this is about extracting better deals.


You have any evidence that WN isn't getting good deals now? I suspect not.
 
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Erebus
Posts: 1004
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 2:40 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:33 pm

bob75013 wrote:
Erebus wrote:
StTim wrote:
I am sure that Airbus et al are not pencilling in any sales for WN. They too know the game. They make the frame as attractive as possile but make no huge discount promises at an early stage of the game. If, and I doubt it, WN become serious then things might change.

I am sure they are not holding their breath in TLS.


Yep. And I don't think Boeing will feel any different about this as well. They too will know the game and see it as an attempt by WN to gain concessions from them. And the CEO's response quoted above that they are just doing their 'due diligence' and will remain with the 737 don't help either. WN has to be a lot more serious than this if this is about extracting better deals.


You have any evidence that WN isn't getting good deals now? I suspect not.


I said better. Are you certain that they can't get a better deal than what they already get?
 
bob75013
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2015 5:05 pm

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:35 pm

Erebus wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
Erebus wrote:

Yep. And I don't think Boeing will feel any different about this as well. They too will know the game and see it as an attempt by WN to gain concessions from them. And the CEO's response quoted above that they are just doing their 'due diligence' and will remain with the 737 don't help either. WN has to be a lot more serious than this if this is about extracting better deals.


You have any evidence that WN isn't getting good deals now? I suspect not.


I said better. Are you certain that they can't get a better deal than what they already get?


I suspect that BA takes very good care of WN, it's most important customer in the world. The fact that WN's profit levels exceed every other major airline in NA says
that it gets good enough deals.
 
User avatar
NeBaNi
Posts: 446
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 10:45 am

Re: WN looking at A220

Thu Apr 25, 2019 10:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
Gary Kelly this morning added more for this thread to speculate around:

"We're an all Boeing 737 carrier," Kelly also said on CNBC, "That doesn't mean we'll be an all 737 carrier into perpetuity."
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/southwest-airlines/2019/04/25/southwest-posts-record-q1-revenuedespite-737-max-grounding-headaches

On the flip side, Jon Ostrower ( https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 9622690816 ) tweeted:

Southwest confirms @theaircurrent reporting. The airline visited an A220 operator. "We didn’t reveal that we took this trip...This trip was planned a long time ago,” says CEO Gary Kelly, who called the timing coincidental.

... which is the opposite of confirming theaircurrent's report that the visit was a test of WN's relationship with Boeing.

Life's tough out there in the click bait oriented world of modern media.

Or, another way to look at it is that WN was already considering adding another fleet type before the MAX grounding, and but now, the grounding reinforces doing due diligence. :stirthepot:

On the whole, I'm still convinced WN will stick to Boeing, but clearly, with these actions, it's more than the "nothing-to-see-here" crowd here would like us to believe. Clearly, there's something here to see, and as an AvGeek, discussing these "something"s make us tick.

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