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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:00 am

longhauler wrote:
Southwest is under fiduciary responsibility to look at all options for increasing shareholder value. If the BOD has decided to ignore a yearly savings of over $1B, they better have a good reason why!

Zeke's number comes from a hypothetical world where you instantly convert 500 737-7s (not MAXes) to A220-300s with no other costs, and uses generic fuel burn specs.

It doesn't consider acquisition cost, nor training cost for pilots, FAs, or maintenance personnel (a big consideration, moving from CFM to Pratt), nor network inefficiencies introduced by having two different fleets with two different sets of crews, nor losing a few pax in capacity per flight (especially considering MAX-7 has grown).

Yes, many airlines do mixed fleets, but WN has really optimized itself around the single fleet concept.

I'm sure someone in WN is cranking the numbers with a lot more detail than we have here, but given the CEO says a switch to something other than 737 is unforeseen, I think we know where things are going to end up.

longhauler wrote:
In my opinion, I am not saying Southwest will buy the A220, but ... I would certainly hope they gave it thought.

Yes, that's pretty much the definition of due diligence, or as the CEO says, doing it out of a sense of duty.

barney captain wrote:
You have authors writing widely speculative articles based on a industry standard practice of "looking" - not buying - because it can somehow be tied to the MAX. These visits happen regularly, and wouldn't even be newsworthy without some ridiculous spin to the MAX.

In spite of that and the glaringly obvious point that Kelly has repeated explained it and has said "we're not buying anything but the 737 for the foreseeable future", with have a thread with "28.000 views and 200 comments" that seem to continue to ignore those facts.

It seems some are able to foresee things the CEO himself cannot foresee, and like to discuss events that might come into existence in the gap between the unforeseeable and perpetuity, which my dictionary defines as "endless or indefinitely long duration or existence; eternity".

So, here we have some people who promote the idea that WN may buy something other than 737, an idea that the CEO says lies in the gap between the unforeseeable and eternity.

I feel pretty comfortable in my position.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
seanpmassey
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:37 am

/Realistically, SWA is probably doing due diligence on a new aircraft type that some of their competitors have ordered.

But there are two things that could eventually make SWA order something besides 737s. First, SWA's size puts their business, and their investors, at risk of an airworthyness directive putting them out of business. At their size, a single fleet type is a huge risk. Yes, they're are profitable and optimized around that fleet type. But how long would they remain profitable if there was another 737 grounding that impacted NGs? Or what would happen in a few years if there were more MAXes in their fleet?

The second thing is a single large instutional investor demanding the adoption of a second fleet type. Large investment firms like to see their investments continue to earn a profit. All it would take is one of these investors that hold a large chunk of SWA stock to demand the adoption of another aircraft. At that point, Kelly's hands are tied - he can either do it, be ousted by shareholders, or take the company private. This has happened with some larger companies in the tech space - an investment firm called Elliott Management held significant chunks of a few larger tech companies and made demands that most of the companies eventually gave into.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it could. Especially if the MAX grounding drags on. SWA and their investors are probably doing financial risk analysis to determine if a single fleet type at their size is too much of a risk, and if they aren't, they're not doing due diligence either.
 
Raventech
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:29 am

seanpmassey wrote:
/Realistically, SWA is probably doing due diligence on a new aircraft type that some of their competitors have ordered.

But there are two things that could eventually make SWA order something besides 737s. First, SWA's size puts their business, and their investors, at risk of an airworthyness directive putting them out of business. At their size, a single fleet type is a huge risk. Yes, they're are profitable and optimized around that fleet type. But how long would they remain profitable if there was another 737 grounding that impacted NGs? Or what would happen in a few years if there were more MAXes in their fleet?


Realistically though what are the odds of something like that actually happening. Have there been any cases of a world wide grounding of an aircraft that has seen 20+ years of service with no major issues up until that point. Practically speaking if something drastic were to occur, the AD compliance would probably would be a complete by this many hours or by this date, allowing for staggering of out of service aircraft. I can't see a scenario where we only just now learn of an issue that would necessitate a compliance before next flight and that would take a large/majority of aircraft out of service for a prolonged time.

seanpmassey wrote:
The second thing is a single large instutional investor demanding the adoption of a second fleet type. Large investment firms like to see their investments continue to earn a profit. All it would take is one of these investors that hold a large chunk of SWA stock to demand the adoption of another aircraft. At that point, Kelly's hands are tied - he can either do it, be ousted by shareholders, or take the company private. This has happened with some larger companies in the tech space - an investment firm called Elliott Management held significant chunks of a few larger tech companies and made demands that most of the companies eventually gave into.

I'm not saying it will happen, but it could. Especially if the MAX grounding drags on. SWA and their investors are probably doing financial risk analysis to determine if a single fleet type at their size is too much of a risk, and if they aren't, they're not doing due diligence either.


I don't see this scenario on the horizon either because risk management =/= risk elimination. First hurdle for them would be convincing other major stock holders that the risk is big enough to spend hundreds of millions in order to correct it. If that doesn't work then they could try arguing increased profit but again they would have to convince other major shareholders that spending hundreds of millions to potentially increase profits by a small amount.

I looked at Elliot Management's Wikipedia page, based on what I read where it mentions them being activist investors, those companies were likely not on the strongest footing. Tech companies as well are not known for having decades of solid profits, usually after a decade they have to pivot in order to still have a business going forward. To add to the point above, another hurdle is they would have to make the case that WN's business model that has been very successful relative to their peers for 30+ years no longer works and they need to force change and override the management.

Realistically I think this is probably fact finding trip so they can start developing their post 737 fleet plan (as well as competition research). They are going to be 2 type fleet at some point because a transition from 737 to new frame. That will be a decade+ process and they will need to have a system that is optimized for multiple aircraft types. It's right around here is when I see them introducing a plane like this if they do it because they would have already lost single fleet synergies. So the question is to they haul butt to get back to a single fleet type or do they decide since they now have multi fleet systems in place to go 2 fleet with aircraft optimized for different missions.
 
kaneporta1
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:37 am

Revelation wrote:
longhauler wrote:
Southwest is under fiduciary responsibility to look at all options for increasing shareholder value. If the BOD has decided to ignore a yearly savings of over $1B, they better have a good reason why!

Zeke's number comes from a hypothetical world where you instantly convert 500 737-7s (not MAXes) to A220-300s with no other costs, and uses generic fuel burn specs.

It doesn't consider acquisition cost, nor training cost for pilots, FAs, or maintenance personnel (a big consideration, moving from CFM to Pratt), nor network inefficiencies introduced by having two different fleets with two different sets of crews, nor losing a few pax in capacity per flight (especially considering MAX-7 has grown).

Yes, many airlines do mixed fleets, but WN has really optimized itself around the single fleet concept.



Zeke also compared the per aircraft costs over a 15 year period. And although the number is not as big as for a fleet of 500 aircraft, it is still very significant and not that hypothetical at all.

As for Southwest:

    They still need to pay for those 737-7s, so acquisition costs will be similar. Unless of course Boeing is giving them for free...
    Their maintenance team still has to work on two types of engine right now (CFM56 and LEAP).
    The cabin crews have to work on two different cabin configurations (737-700 and 737-800/Max8)
    And finally, the network inefficiencies for not having the right aircraft will cost them a lot more than the inefficiencies of having 2 fleets. The landing fees alone would be enough to negate the 2-5 pax advantage of the 177,000lbs 737-7 vs the 149,000lbs A220-300.

You say they're optimized around a single fleet concept. Although the fleet is part of the equation, I would think they're optimized around a reliable, reasonably light 143-seat aircraft. However, Boeing doesn't offer this kind of aircraft anymore.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
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767333ER
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:26 am

kaneporta1 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
longhauler wrote:
Southwest is under fiduciary responsibility to look at all options for increasing shareholder value. If the BOD has decided to ignore a yearly savings of over $1B, they better have a good reason why!

Zeke's number comes from a hypothetical world where you instantly convert 500 737-7s (not MAXes) to A220-300s with no other costs, and uses generic fuel burn specs.

It doesn't consider acquisition cost, nor training cost for pilots, FAs, or maintenance personnel (a big consideration, moving from CFM to Pratt), nor network inefficiencies introduced by having two different fleets with two different sets of crews, nor losing a few pax in capacity per flight (especially considering MAX-7 has grown).

Yes, many airlines do mixed fleets, but WN has really optimized itself around the single fleet concept.



Zeke also compared the per aircraft costs over a 15 year period. And although the number is not as big as for a fleet of 500 aircraft, it is still very significant and not that hypothetical at all.

As for Southwest:

    They still need to pay for those 737-7s, so acquisition costs will be similar. Unless of course Boeing is giving them for free...
    Their maintenance team still has to work on two types of engine right now (CFM56 and LEAP).
    The cabin crews have to work on two different cabin configurations (737-700 and 737-800/Max8)
    And finally, the network inefficiencies for not having the right aircraft will cost them a lot more than the inefficiencies of having 2 fleets. The landing fees alone would be enough to negate the 2-5 pax advantage of the 177,000lbs 737-7 vs the 149,000lbs A220-300.

You say they're optimized around a single fleet concept. Although the fleet is part of the equation, I would think they're optimized around a reliable, reasonably light 143-seat aircraft. However, Boeing doesn't offer this kind of aircraft anymore.

Even 15 years is pretty is shortsighted considering generally airlines in North America like to keep planes flying for 25-30 years before retiring them.

The advantage I see to them taking on the A220 which I totally doubt will happen is what happens if they are doing a route say with a 737-700 or even a MAX 7 and an A220 operator like DL or B6 competes with them. The A220 would be much less costly to operate against a MAX 7 and day and night against a -700 allowing those airlines to undercut if they choose probably to a point that is relatively significant to the customer, but not to a point that hurts their yield too much. This is where WN would start to suffer with 737 only especially since the MAX 7 of course is already seen as a bit inefficient and if that’s not a big deal now, it will be in 15-30 years time.
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:02 am

kaneporta1 wrote:
They still need to pay for those 737-7s, so acquisition costs will be similar. Unless of course Boeing is giving them for free...

True, if the comparison point is MAX-7. If we're talking about NGs, these are largely paid for, and used ones can be acquired dirt cheap, as WN has been doing.

Their maintenance team still has to work on two types of engine right now (CFM56 and LEAP).

More similar than different. Going from CFM to Pratt is like going from MacOS to Windows.

The cabin crews have to work on two different cabin configurations (737-700 and 737-800/Max8)

More similar than different.

And finally, the network inefficiencies for not having the right aircraft will cost them a lot more than the inefficiencies of having 2 fleets. The landing fees alone would be enough to negate the 2-5 pax advantage of the 177,000lbs 737-7 vs the 149,000lbs A220-300.

You say they're optimized around a single fleet concept. Although the fleet is part of the equation, I would think they're optimized around a reliable, reasonably light 143-seat aircraft. However, Boeing doesn't offer this kind of aircraft anymore.

Thing is, WN has the real data rather than back of the napkin calculations. They helped define the MAX-7 and they are the launch customer. Their CEO is telling us in real time what he is thinking about the choices (unforseen, eternity, etc.), and as above, I feel confident in my position.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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ewt340
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:29 am

WN operated 513 B737-700 with 143 PAX at 31" seat pitch.
They could fit 140-145 PAX at 31" seat pitch on A220-300.

I'm pretty sure if they got a really big discount on A220-300 like Delta did, they would order significant amount of aircraft to completely replace -700.

I do see a combo of A220-300, MAX8 and some MAX10 in the future.

As long as they keep the number of A220-300 high, it would be acceptable to operate both types.
 
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:42 am

ewt340 wrote:
WN operated 513 B737-700 with 143 PAX at 31" seat pitch.
They could fit 140-145 PAX at 31" seat pitch on A220-300.

Yet if we're now talking about buying new, MAX-7 is a two row stretch over the NG-7 so add 12 more pax for 155, or stick to 150 pax with more comfort and additional payload-range.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
longhauler wrote:
Southwest is under fiduciary responsibility to look at all options for increasing shareholder value. If the BOD has decided to ignore a yearly savings of over $1B, they better have a good reason why!

Zeke's number comes from a hypothetical world where you instantly convert 500 737-7s (not MAXes) to A220-300s with no other costs, and uses generic fuel burn specs.

It doesn't consider acquisition cost, nor training cost for pilots, FAs, or maintenance personnel (a big consideration, moving from CFM to Pratt), nor network inefficiencies introduced by having two different fleets with two different sets of crews, nor losing a few pax in capacity per flight (especially considering MAX-7 has grown).

Yes, many airlines do mixed fleets, but WN has really optimized itself around the single fleet concept.

I'm sure someone in WN is cranking the numbers with a lot more detail than we have here, but given the CEO says a switch to something other than 737 is unforeseen, I think we know where things are going to end up.

longhauler wrote:
In my opinion, I am not saying Southwest will buy the A220, but ... I would certainly hope they gave it thought.

Yes, that's pretty much the definition of due diligence, or as the CEO says, doing it out of a sense of duty.

barney captain wrote:
You have authors writing widely speculative articles based on a industry standard practice of "looking" - not buying - because it can somehow be tied to the MAX. These visits happen regularly, and wouldn't even be newsworthy without some ridiculous spin to the MAX.

In spite of that and the glaringly obvious point that Kelly has repeated explained it and has said "we're not buying anything but the 737 for the foreseeable future", with have a thread with "28.000 views and 200 comments" that seem to continue to ignore those facts.

It seems some are able to foresee things the CEO himself cannot foresee, and like to discuss events that might come into existence in the gap between the unforeseeable and perpetuity, which my dictionary defines as "endless or indefinitely long duration or existence; eternity".

So, here we have some people who promote the idea that WN may buy something other than 737, an idea that the CEO says lies in the gap between the unforeseeable and eternity.

I feel pretty comfortable in my position.


You are wasting your breath.because all the A220 fanboys know the WN CEO was lying when he said there would be "no new fleet types in the near future. " What else could be the explanation?
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:26 pm

bob75013 wrote:
You are wasting your breath.because all the A220 fanboys know the WN CEO was lying when he said there would be "no new fleet types in the near future. " What else could be the explanation?

You've done this twice already; quoted something that only exists in your head.

The funny thing is that you hold others to higher standards, hence this helpful English lesson from yourself
bob75013 wrote:
inverted commas are called quotation marks -- meaning they specify a quote of what someone said.

So, for the second time I'm asking when did the WN CEO utter the words you claim?

Thanks to Revelation, I am quite aware of the words he actually used, and I will concede he said something along similar lines, but as Revelation might have said, the devil is in the detail.
And of course the other clue is that each time your "quote" changes, and deviates a little further from the truth.

p.s. you can reply with a meaningless sentence ending in an expletive again if you like; I guarantee it wasn't me that pulled the last one - I would much prefer your inability to recognise facts to stay on record for everyone to see.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:52 pm

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
You are wasting your breath.because all the A220 fanboys know the WN CEO was lying when he said there would be "no new fleet types in the near future. " What else could be the explanation?

You've done this twice already; quoted something that only exists in your head.

The funny thing is that you hold others to higher standards, hence this helpful English lesson from yourself
bob75013 wrote:
inverted commas are called quotation marks -- meaning they specify a quote of what someone said.

So, for the second time I'm asking when did the WN CEO utter the words you claim?

Thanks to Revelation, I am quite aware of the words he actually used, and I will concede he said something along similar lines, but as Revelation might have said, the devil is in the detail.
And of course the other clue is that each time your "quote" changes, and deviates a little further from the truth.

p.s. you can reply with a meaningless sentence ending in an expletive again if you like; I guarantee it wasn't me that pulled the last one - I would much prefer your inability to recognise facts to stay on record for everyone to see.


Do you believe that Reuters was lying?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sout ... SKCN1S12E5

"CHICAGO (Reuters) - Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon."
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:11 pm

In response to the statement noted in the response immediately above, which Kelly stated that Southwest will not be only a 737 operator please note the following. The 737 MAX is going to be the last variant Boeing will build . Boeing will need to manufacture a NEW build narrow body aircraft to survive. The 737 is MAXED out and it is the end of the line for any newer 737s. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:13 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
In response to the statement noted in the response immediately above, which Kelly stated that Southwest will not be only a 737 operator please note the following. The 737 MAX is going to be the last variant Boeing will build . Boeing will need to manufacture a NEW build narrow body aircraft to survive. The 737 is MAXED out and it is the end of the line for any newer 737s. :old:



I seem to recall people saying the same thing about the NGs. Time will tell.
 
PartsGuy20
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:32 pm

keesje wrote:
And Delta, Moxy and Jetblue will challenge them with A223 efficiency.


Moxy would be a great source of early A220 slots for WN... and it wouldn't be the first time they've purchased an airline that Neeleman was involved in. :stirthepot: :scratchchin:
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:54 pm

bob75013 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
You are wasting your breath.because all the A220 fanboys know the WN CEO was lying when he said there would be "no new fleet types in the near future. " What else could be the explanation?

You've done this twice already; quoted something that only exists in your head.

The funny thing is that you hold others to higher standards, hence this helpful English lesson from yourself
bob75013 wrote:
inverted commas are called quotation marks -- meaning they specify a quote of what someone said.

So, for the second time I'm asking when did the WN CEO utter the words you claim?

Thanks to Revelation, I am quite aware of the words he actually used, and I will concede he said something along similar lines, but as Revelation might have said, the devil is in the detail.
And of course the other clue is that each time your "quote" changes, and deviates a little further from the truth.

p.s. you can reply with a meaningless sentence ending in an expletive again if you like; I guarantee it wasn't me that pulled the last one - I would much prefer your inability to recognise facts to stay on record for everyone to see.


Do you believe that Reuters was lying?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sout ... SKCN1S12E5

"CHICAGO (Reuters) - Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon."


Southwest’s existence was, at one point, not planned.

All of the things that Kelly has said are meant to mask their future so that other airlines do not copy their plans. If they are planning for years in the future, why give the other airlines a head start?

Time will tell what will happen. But straight up denying it will not convince anyone.
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:03 pm

Gulfstream500 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
SheikhDjibouti wrote:
You've done this twice already; quoted something that only exists in your head.

The funny thing is that you hold others to higher standards, hence this helpful English lesson from yourself

So, for the second time I'm asking when did the WN CEO utter the words you claim?

Thanks to Revelation, I am quite aware of the words he actually used, and I will concede he said something along similar lines, but as Revelation might have said, the devil is in the detail.
And of course the other clue is that each time your "quote" changes, and deviates a little further from the truth.

p.s. you can reply with a meaningless sentence ending in an expletive again if you like; I guarantee it wasn't me that pulled the last one - I would much prefer your inability to recognise facts to stay on record for everyone to see.


Do you believe that Reuters was lying?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-sout ... SKCN1S12E5

"CHICAGO (Reuters) - Southwest Co Chief Executive Gary Kelly said on Thursday the company was sticking with its plan to keep growing its fleet with the 737 MAX made by Boeing Co and does not plan to order different aircraft models any time soon."


Southwest’s existence was, at one point, not planned.

All of the things that Kelly has said are meant to mask their future so that other airlines do not copy their plans. If they are planning for years in the future, why give the other airlines a head start?

Time will tell what will happen. But straight up denying it will not convince anyone.


You heard it here first: Kelly is lying to his stockholders and to the press.
 
CS500
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:08 pm

bob75013 wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
In response to the statement noted in the response immediately above, which Kelly stated that Southwest will not be only a 737 operator please note the following. The 737 MAX is going to be the last variant Boeing will build . Boeing will need to manufacture a NEW build narrow body aircraft to survive. The 737 is MAXED out and it is the end of the line for any newer 737s. :old:



I seem to recall people saying the same thing about the NGs. Time will tell.


I would be amazed if grandfathering rules are changed considerably after the MAX introduction issues (and hell, even Airbus with the GTF issues), with a time limit or number of iteration limit seeming inevitable, either of which would likely make a SUPER MAX 737 impossible.
 
bob75013
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:20 pm

CS500 wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
In response to the statement noted in the response immediately above, which Kelly stated that Southwest will not be only a 737 operator please note the following. The 737 MAX is going to be the last variant Boeing will build . Boeing will need to manufacture a NEW build narrow body aircraft to survive. The 737 is MAXED out and it is the end of the line for any newer 737s. :old:



I seem to recall people saying the same thing about the NGs. Time will tell.


I would be amazed if grandfathering rules are changed considerably after the MAX introduction issues (and hell, even Airbus with the GTF issues), with a time limit or number of iteration limit seeming inevitable, either of which would likely make a SUPER MAX 737 impossible.



Well, a discussion about new 737 variants really doesn't belong in this thread.
 
Bricktop
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:47 pm

bob75013 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
longhauler wrote:
Southwest is under fiduciary responsibility to look at all options for increasing shareholder value. If the BOD has decided to ignore a yearly savings of over $1B, they better have a good reason why!

Zeke's number comes from a hypothetical world where you instantly convert 500 737-7s (not MAXes) to A220-300s with no other costs, and uses generic fuel burn specs.

It doesn't consider acquisition cost, nor training cost for pilots, FAs, or maintenance personnel (a big consideration, moving from CFM to Pratt), nor network inefficiencies introduced by having two different fleets with two different sets of crews, nor losing a few pax in capacity per flight (especially considering MAX-7 has grown).

Yes, many airlines do mixed fleets, but WN has really optimized itself around the single fleet concept.

I'm sure someone in WN is cranking the numbers with a lot more detail than we have here, but given the CEO says a switch to something other than 737 is unforeseen, I think we know where things are going to end up.

longhauler wrote:
In my opinion, I am not saying Southwest will buy the A220, but ... I would certainly hope they gave it thought.

Yes, that's pretty much the definition of due diligence, or as the CEO says, doing it out of a sense of duty.

barney captain wrote:
You have authors writing widely speculative articles based on a industry standard practice of "looking" - not buying - because it can somehow be tied to the MAX. These visits happen regularly, and wouldn't even be newsworthy without some ridiculous spin to the MAX.

In spite of that and the glaringly obvious point that Kelly has repeated explained it and has said "we're not buying anything but the 737 for the foreseeable future", with have a thread with "28.000 views and 200 comments" that seem to continue to ignore those facts.

It seems some are able to foresee things the CEO himself cannot foresee, and like to discuss events that might come into existence in the gap between the unforeseeable and perpetuity, which my dictionary defines as "endless or indefinitely long duration or existence; eternity".

So, here we have some people who promote the idea that WN may buy something other than 737, an idea that the CEO says lies in the gap between the unforeseeable and eternity.

I feel pretty comfortable in my position.


You are wasting your breath.because all the A220 fanboys know the WN CEO was lying when he said there would be "no new fleet types in the near future. " What else could be the explanation?

Remember the good old days when Airbus fanboys thought the BCS1 and BCS3 were garbage? Slap on an Airbus sticker and renumber them, and voila! Redemption!

Meanwhile, they can't make them at even mid-single digit rates, let alone the mid-double digits 50/60+ numbers of the A320 and maybe one day the MAX.will be back at those levels.
By the time the A22X is produced at even half-way-decent levels, Airbus and Boeing will be on to their next-gen planes, which will be designed to be efficiently mass produced.
It's a nice short term niche airplane. End of story.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:02 pm

seanpmassey wrote:

But there are two things that could eventually make SWA order something besides 737s. First, SWA's size puts their business, and their investors, at risk of an airworthyness directive putting them out of business. At their size, a single fleet type is a huge risk. Yes, they're are profitable and optimized around that fleet type. But how long would they remain profitable if there was another 737 grounding that impacted NGs? Or what would happen in a few years if there were more MAXes in their fleet?
The idea that somehow 100 A220's would save them if their 700 NG's (or whatever the numbers are) were grounded makes no sense. WN would be just about equally screwed with or without A220 if the entire 737 fleet was grounded.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
ewt340
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
WN operated 513 B737-700 with 143 PAX at 31" seat pitch.
They could fit 140-145 PAX at 31" seat pitch on A220-300.

Yet if we're now talking about buying new, MAX-7 is a two row stretch over the NG-7 so add 12 more pax for 155, or stick to 150 pax with more comfort and additional payload-range.


They decided to fitted MAX7 with 150 seats. Currently they only have 30 aircraft in order. Could easily converted to MAX8 instead.
It would be highly unlikely that they would fitted MAX7 with 155 seats since it would required them to operate the plane with 4 FA instead of 3 FA.

Beside, with Delta and JetBlue and upcoming Moxy air operating A220-300. It would be tough competition for WN if they didn't have aircraft with that efficiency.

Interestingly enough, regional airlines like Republic Airways also order significant amount of A220-300.
 
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Revelation
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:23 pm

ewt340 wrote:
They decided to fitted MAX7 with 150 seats. Currently they only have 30 aircraft in order. Could easily converted to MAX8 instead.

Could easily do what the CEO says and take 100 MAX 8 then go back to taking MAX 7.

Some times a cigar is just a cigar.
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rrbsztk
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Re: WN looking at A220

Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:40 pm

ewt340 wrote:

Interestingly enough, regional airlines like Republic Airways also order significant amount of A220-300.


IIRC the Republic Airways A220 order was for Frontier. However when they sold Frontier they kept the A220 order.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:43 am

rrbsztk wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Interestingly enough, regional airlines like Republic Airways also order significant amount of A220-300.


IIRC the Republic Airways A220 order was for Frontier. However when they sold Frontier they kept the A220 order.


I have not heard anything of that order in foverver. Any information on an entry into service date???

Additionally, if they have kept the order, are they going to operate under their own brand???
Can someone please start a wikipedia list of failed startup airlines? I am interested in seeing just how long it would be...
 
rrbsztk
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:07 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
rrbsztk wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Interestingly enough, regional airlines like Republic Airways also order significant amount of A220-300.


IIRC the Republic Airways A220 order was for Frontier. However when they sold Frontier they kept the A220 order.


I have not heard anything of that order in foverver. Any information on an entry into service date???

Additionally, if they have kept the order, are they going to operate under their own brand???


I looked a year or so ago and couldn't find anything about plans. I want to say there was solid speculation that Republic kept them hoping to sell them when and if delivery slots become asset they can sell.
 
INFINITI329
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:27 am

With Southwest's pitch could 150 seats be fitted in an A223?
 
RobertPhoenix
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:53 am

This probably needs another thread, but WN have evolved their business plan over time and I'm sure it wasn't all in the initial plan. Herb was a unique risk taker and very competitive in the best way. People like that are always ready to learn and adapt. Nobody could be a one for one replacement for him, not James Parker, Gary Kelly or Colleen Barrett.

The culture of WN seems to have survived very well during these changes, at least as far as the passengers are concerned, but I suspect the business plan has stopped evolving, so buying the A220 is probably a step too far. Maybe they can buy Moxy when and if it becomes reality and succeeds with its strategy. Buying an airline from David Neeleman is part of their history, so that shouldn't be too much of a stretch.
 
KMCOFlyer
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:36 am

737max8 wrote:
So....where is the A220 mockup in WN colors?


Not my work, but here you go.

Image
 
airzona11
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:45 am

The 73G was the blacksheep when it was ramping up production, nearly every major airline was going for the larger 738 or A320. Yes WN has operated 500+ of them as the most consistently profitable airline, that also happens to be one of the largest. 73Gs are still the backbone of the fleet. As their network matures, more 73Gs can go to 738/Max8. Bigger is happening before smaller at WN.
 
AirwayBill
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:18 am

KMCOFlyer wrote:
737max8 wrote:
So....where is the A220 mockup in WN colors?


Not my work, but here you go.

Image



This looks amazing. And the wait won't be too long! :stirthepot:
 
Bricktop
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Re: WN looking at A220

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:45 am

AirwayBill wrote:
KMCOFlyer wrote:
737max8 wrote:
So....where is the A220 mockup in WN colors?


Not my work, but here you go.

Image



This looks amazing. And the wait won't be too long! :stirthepot:

A for execution, F for aesthetics. In fairness to the BCSX A22X which looks great in LX or BT liveries, I cant call myself a fan of WNs. :shrug:

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