FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:18 pm

many321 wrote:
Seems 4O is about to bite dust with those drastic cuts.


I wouldn't call these 4O cuts "drastic". Their bread and butter routes in the Mexico-U.S. market are really from MEX, GDL, and MTY. These cuts (with the exception of LAX-BJX) are just beach markets that are very heavily U.S. point of sale.
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:18 pm

FSDan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Very interesting to see this back
**AA MIA-SCU DEC 0.5>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]


AA's MIA-Cuba services seem to be (unsurprisingly) the best performers in the market. Daily 319s to VRA, CMW, and SCU, a daily 738 to HOG, double daily 738s to SNU, and 5-6 daily 738s to HAV. WN's TPA-HAV is another bright spot. UA and DL have reduced their service to regional jets only (although UA did make IAH-HAV daily instead of just weekly), and it seems that WN and B6 have had some struggles from FLL.

I think Cuba has bottomed, although more sanctions seem to be in the pipeline.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:19 pm

FSDan wrote:
many321 wrote:
Seems 4O is about to bite dust with those drastic cuts.


I wouldn't call these 4O cuts "drastic". Their bread and butter routes in the Mexico-U.S. market are really from MEX, GDL, and MTY. These cuts (with the exception of LAX-BJX) are just beach markets that are very heavily U.S. point of sale.

Sure, but it bodes poorly for expansion of they are not getting traction in those. They should really partner with a U.S. based tour operator.
 
dcajet
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:41 pm

enilria wrote:
dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:
Very interesting to see this back
**AA MIA-SCU DEC 0.5>1.0[0] JAN 0>1.0[0] FEB 0>1.0[0]


MIA-SCU is operating this summer and fall too. Have they added now Jan & Feb?


I take it SCU is not a beach market since it wasn't operating in Winter peak? What is the market?


It is the 2nd largest city in Cuba, on the island's SE tip. Someone who is more connected with Cuba can correct me, but it does not seem to be a beach market.
Last edited by dcajet on Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:44 pm

dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:
dcajet wrote:

MIA-SCU is operating this summer and fall too. Have they added now Jan & Feb?


I take it SCU is not a beach market since it wasn't operating in Winter peak? What is the market?


It is the 2nd largest city in Cuba, on the island's SE tip. Someone who is more connected with Cuba can correct me, but it does not seem to be a beach market.

If it was a beach market they would have already flew it in Winter, but I guess I'm not clear why it was seasonal? Even if it isn't a beach market, why would traffic ebb in JAN/FEB more than other months?
 
dcajet
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:48 pm

I am not sure. Perhaps catering to European connections via MIA? It is a fairly historic place for the Cuban revolution, near the Sierra Maestra and one of the oldest cities in Cuba. Perhaps Cuban emigres visiting their country?
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MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:05 pm

enilria wrote:
dcajet wrote:
enilria wrote:

I take it SCU is not a beach market since it wasn't operating in Winter peak? What is the market?


It is the 2nd largest city in Cuba, on the island's SE tip. Someone who is more connected with Cuba can correct me, but it does not seem to be a beach market.

If it was a beach market they would have already flew it in Winter, but I guess I'm not clear why it was seasonal? Even if it isn't a beach market, why would traffic ebb in JAN/FEB more than other months?


It was never seasonal. It's a new market. AA launches it on Friday. Not sure why it wasn't loaded further out.
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:05 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
enilria wrote:
dcajet wrote:

It is the 2nd largest city in Cuba, on the island's SE tip. Someone who is more connected with Cuba can correct me, but it does not seem to be a beach market.

If it was a beach market they would have already flew it in Winter, but I guess I'm not clear why it was seasonal? Even if it isn't a beach market, why would traffic ebb in JAN/FEB more than other months?


It was never seasonal. It's a new market. AA launches it on Friday. Not sure why it wasn't loaded further out.

I guess it was just a lack of confidence.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:53 am

Ishrion wrote:
So did AA extend DFW-SAP/TGU after the seasonal period? Because those two routes were announced a while ago.


I paid a visit to my former colleagues at AA and the DFW operation from SAP and TGU is here to stay.

Finally, they're filling in the void. I hope they go competitive with prices with UA and NK. Although they fly to IAH, AA can prove to be a very good option to and from DFW.
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:48 am

Looking more closely at the July WN reductions resulting from the MAX groundings it's not just the June ones pushed forward. It's about 50% more than June -- June had about 35 daily round trip cuts and July has about 53.

Particularly interesting to see where the cuts are most focused and where they are not, keeping in mind that there's bias toward cutting longer routes.

Some areas with notable cuts are below. Most of these year-over-year cuts are showing up in the MAX adjustment schedule for July, though in some case I noted that there was already some YOY reduction and now the MAX cuts are adding further reduction.

Chicago-Pacific Northwest / Bay Area down 9 from last year. SEA/PDX/SFO were already planned to be down 1 each year-over-year but there are 6 more from the MAX cuts.
5 last year 2 this year to SEA
3 last year 0 this year to PDX
3 last year 1 this year to SFO
4 last year 3 this year to OAK

Transcons
1 last year 0 this year on EWR SAN
1 last year 0 this year no EWR OAK
1 last year 0 this year on MCO OAK
1 last year 0 this year on MCO SMF
1 last year 0 this year on MCO SJC
1 last year 0 this year on MCO SAN
1 last year 0 this year on TPA SAN

Las Vegas medium- long haul down 12. BWI and TPA were already planned to be -1, the other 10 are MAX cuts.
4 last year 2 this year to ATL
1 last year 0 this year to BHM
4 last year 3 this year to BNA
6 last year 3 this year to BWI
2 last year 1 last year to CMH
2 last year 0 this year to PIT (some weekend flying left)
2 last year 0 this year to TPA (some weekend flying left)

Los Angeles has cuts of planned 2019 increases plus some new MAX cuts
3 last year 1.7 this year AUS
3 last year 2 this year BNA
1 last year 0 this year OMA
1 last year 0 this year PIT
2 last year 1.6 this year SAT
BWI was to grow to 3x but is staying 2x like last summer
MSY was to grow to 3x but is staying 2x like last summer


There are also some large WN stations with very little impact from the MAX adjustment

DAL loses nothing
STL only loses 1 CUN flight (still weekend flying)
HOU only loses 1 SAT
DEN only loses 1 BWI and 1 TPA
ATL only loses 1 IAD and the previously-mentioned LAS
PHX only loses 1 IND and 1 BWI
OAK only loses 1 IND, the previously-mentioned transcons and 1 MDW, and a smattering of less than weekly flights to Mexico

Again it's worth remembering there's a bias toward cutting longer flights when aircraft are short -- fewer numbers of of passengers disrupted and often more rebooking routings out there. But especially when you consider what was cut versus similar things they chose not to cut, it gives some insight where they likely are seeing less demand. For example they could have freed up about the same aircraft time if they'd cut MDW flights to southern CA as to OAK/SFO/PDX/SEA, they they kept all of southern CA intact but really took the ax to SEA/PDX/SFO in particular.
 
c933103
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon May 27, 2019 8:20 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Looks like MF's SEA-SZX-XMN flight is a goner, ending on September 25 (3 years after it started, which could indicate the end of the route's subsidy).


Too bad. I heard MF has the best service and product of any Chinese airline. HU being second.

Disappointing to see, but not a shock.


I hope you both are wrong on this...but their load factors haven't been too encouraging. It's too bad considering SEA was their first US city served...if not the first in North America.

On Chinese forum, some commented that MF is now discussing with Shenzhen government to renew the subsidy, and if an agreement can be reached then they will continue the flight
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c933103
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon May 27, 2019 8:20 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
717atOGG wrote:
Looks like MF's SEA-SZX-XMN flight is a goner, ending on September 25 (3 years after it started, which could indicate the end of the route's subsidy).


Too bad. I heard MF has the best service and product of any Chinese airline. HU being second.

Disappointing to see, but not a shock.


I hope you both are wrong on this...but their load factors haven't been too encouraging. It's too bad considering SEA was their first US city served...if not the first in North America.

On Chinese forum, some commented that MF is now discussing with Shenzhen government to renew the subsidy, and if an agreement can be reached then they will continue the flight
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Mon May 27, 2019 9:31 pm

AASAP777 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
So did AA extend DFW-SAP/TGU after the seasonal period? Because those two routes were announced a while ago.


I paid a visit to my former colleagues at AA and the DFW operation from SAP and TGU is here to stay.

Finally, they're filling in the void. I hope they go competitive with prices with UA and NK. Although they fly to IAH, AA can prove to be a very good option to and from DFW.


Do your friends work in route planning at DFW HQ?
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AASAP777
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:11 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
AASAP777 wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
So did AA extend DFW-SAP/TGU after the seasonal period? Because those two routes were announced a while ago.


I paid a visit to my former colleagues at AA and the DFW operation from SAP and TGU is here to stay.

Finally, they're filling in the void. I hope they go competitive with prices with UA and NK. Although they fly to IAH, AA can prove to be a very good option to and from DFW.


Do your friends work in route planning at DFW HQ?


No! At AA SAP. I worked at American and I always remain close to them. In fact, they've just made the presentation of the route to the media and travel agencies in both SAP and TGU.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:42 am

AASAP777 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AASAP777 wrote:

I paid a visit to my former colleagues at AA and the DFW operation from SAP and TGU is here to stay.

Finally, they're filling in the void. I hope they go competitive with prices with UA and NK. Although they fly to IAH, AA can prove to be a very good option to and from DFW.


Do your friends work in route planning at DFW HQ?


No! At AA SAP. I worked at American and I always remain close to them. In fact, they've just made the presentation of the route to the media and travel agencies in both SAP and TGU.


I’m not saying it won’t be the case, but the only people who actually know are in Dallas not Honduras.
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AASAP777
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:55 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
AASAP777 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

Do your friends work in route planning at DFW HQ?


No! At AA SAP. I worked at American and I always remain close to them. In fact, they've just made the presentation of the route to the media and travel agencies in both SAP and TGU.


I’m not saying it won’t be the case, but the only people who actually know are in Dallas not Honduras.



And I don't have a doubt about it. The only thing is that originally they were expecting a seasonal operation, and now it appears beyond the dates and apparently, as per my colleagues, it seems they're takling the route permanently. I truly hope it sticks around for good. DFW is way overdue here in Honduras, and despite Roatán has it, the two main cities don't.
Bendiga Dios la pródiga tierra en que nací....God bless the prodigal land where I was born.
H O N D U R A S! Five star country...Un país de cinco estrellas.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 4/28/2019: AA Adds DFW-SAP/TGU,MIA-SCU;BA Exits FLL;KL Back in BOS for Winter;AM/WN/D8 Roll MAX Cuts For

Sat Jun 01, 2019 2:40 am

AASAP777 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
AASAP777 wrote:

No! At AA SAP. I worked at American and I always remain close to them. In fact, they've just made the presentation of the route to the media and travel agencies in both SAP and TGU.


I’m not saying it won’t be the case, but the only people who actually know are in Dallas not Honduras.



And I don't have a doubt about it. The only thing is that originally they were expecting a seasonal operation, and now it appears beyond the dates and apparently, as per my colleagues, it seems they're takling the route permanently. I truly hope it sticks around for good. DFW is way overdue here in Honduras, and despite Roatán has it, the two main cities don't.


I’d be surprised if TGU sticks. SAP has a much better chance.
Religion is the root of evil...

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