Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
Dutchy wrote:No surprise there, the A380 has a lot of capacity, so finding new routes to put the A380 on must indeed be hard.
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical.
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
MoKa777 wrote:This may be why EK is establishing themselves in secondary/tertiary London airports. EK is starting a second daily frequency to Stansted from July this year.
We may start seeing more of this from EK in other cities with heavily constrained primary airports. Start building the market at these secondary/tertiary airports and directing public consciousness to these airports before it becomes imperative to operate from there to maintain (and cater to) growth.
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
GCT64 wrote:MoKa777 wrote:This may be why EK is establishing themselves in secondary/tertiary London airports. EK is starting a second daily frequency to Stansted from July this year.
We may start seeing more of this from EK in other cities with heavily constrained primary airports. Start building the market at these secondary/tertiary airports and directing public consciousness to these airports before it becomes imperative to operate from there to maintain (and cater to) growth.
That was how I interpreted and see the situation. In London EK know that with LHR "as is" (no 3rd runway), their ability to obtain more slots at useful times is limited and expensive and that an A380/77X is the maximum capacity they will be able to offer per slot for the foreseeable future, so the capacity growth opportunity is minimal. They would be better educating the public to consider and utilise LGW & STN and at STN, for example, they have the opportunity to establish themselves a/the leading long-haul airline from the airport (e.g. prime lounge location, check-in experience, gates, separate security etc.).
Putnik wrote:I am very interested to learn about which cities they will be targeting when launching new 5th freedom routes to the U.S. Basically, EK can do whatever they want.
Putnik wrote:I am very interested to learn about which cities they will be targeting when launching new 5th freedom routes to the U.S. Basically, EK can do whatever they want.
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
Exeiowa wrote:If we expecting a major shift of premium passengers to STN they should make it a little nicer.
spinotter wrote:From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel.
spinotter wrote:speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.
JayinKitsap wrote:Well there are still over a dozen A380's coming that will be brand, brand new. Unless a dozen of the earlier ones are returned to the lessor EK will need to find 6 or more new routes to put them on. It will be interesting to see how things get shuffled about.
spinotter wrote:From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2....
jetblueguy22 wrote:spinotter wrote:speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.
Now we’re talking! Let’s jack up the cost for an already efficient form of travel, that way I don’t need to sit next to some middle class loser trying to experience life.
fightforlove wrote:I would assume one can assume that this is good news for the 40x Boeing 787-10 order coming to fruition?
fightforlove wrote:I would assume one can assume that this is good news for the 40x Boeing 787-10 order coming to fruition?
emiratesdriver wrote:What has sealed his and his teams fate? The realisation that the 380 has always been an economic pig,
par13del wrote:emiratesdriver wrote:What has sealed his and his teams fate? The realisation that the 380 has always been an economic pig,
Ask this question, if EK did not have the A380 how much of the traffic that they carried via the Middle East would have been done by the various European carriers either with their A380's or something else using other transit points?
Regardless of the economic situation of the A380, its use was also on a nation scale to bring pax via Dubai as well as to "run" other carriers to ground.
I accept that the A380 and the transit operation in Dubai grew traffic, but we also have to accept that it also took traffic away from other carriers.
So in a nutshell, let's call the A380 a loss leader if we want to call it an economic pig.
fcogafa wrote:Why hasn't the press asked Sir Tim about the B787 order, it seems strange
Revelation wrote:JayinKitsap wrote:Well there are still over a dozen A380's coming that will be brand, brand new. Unless a dozen of the earlier ones are returned to the lessor EK will need to find 6 or more new routes to put them on. It will be interesting to see how things get shuffled about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet was updated this month and says 109 are delivered and 14 more are on order.
2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.
The earlier speculation was around whether or not EK would extend the early ones even further and grow to the full extent of the 23 December 2013 order i.e. around 140 frames, or if they would just let the early ones go and order more if that wasn't enough.
In particular the mooted 20+18 order suggests they thought they needed more, but now we know it's the straw that broke the camel's back.
This report is really kills a lot of earlier speculation, in that it is the first one where EK says it is having a hard time finding places to add more A380s into its network.
Given the A380 will only become less competitive over time, it points to a relatively early wind down of the fleet.
klm617 wrote:This also might be posturing by Tim Clark about the new rumored JFK-HAM nonstops
Revelation wrote:fcogafa wrote:Why hasn't the press asked Sir Tim about the B787 order, it seems strange
It doesn't seem strange to me.
EK has a long standing 777x order, and has just cancelled a lot of A380s and added a lot of A350 and A330neo.
It turns out DWC is not getting the funding needed to bring it online any time soon, and A380 production is being wound down.
It seem managing these transitions is enough work, without trying to find ways to squeeze in a 787 order on top of all that.
lightsaber wrote:
The continued thread of EK will help EU airports expand.
Lightsaber
speedbird52 wrote:I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable.
xwb777 wrote:The airline will be launching new 'fifth' freedom routes to the U.S.
Revelation wrote:I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:
mchei wrote:klm617 wrote:This also might be posturing by Tim Clark about the new rumored JFK-HAM nonstops
Really? I mean United couldn’t even run the route with a 757 and LH does everything to bring you through FRA or MUC. Now, they also seem to try to push ZRH as a (mini) hub. HAM is well connected to all of the three.
Edit
I’m sorry. United ran Newark and not JFK. Still TATL
Revelation wrote:2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.
smartplane wrote:Revelation wrote:2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.
EK A380 leases are predominantly 12 year plus 1+1. Not all are published, depending on the funding vehicle used.
If aircraft receive a mid-lease interior update around Y6-7 will be an indication of whether EK plan to operate beyond 12 years. If the update is later, suggests purchase likely, and EOL modified.
At 12 years, EK have the option to extend lease (least likely), negotiate new ad hoc lease extension (including forgiving all / some EOL fees) or purchase.