xwb777
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Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:31 am

Emirates, in the longterm planning has mapped out the A380 from its future network. This comes as the airline is facing challenges and slowing economic growth surrounding its Dubai hub. The airline has been focusing during the last nine months 'knocking down the network” to establish the optimum route profile and is now coming yo an end.

According to Sir Tim, "The airline is finding it tougher to find profitable new routes, especially with sluggish Gulf economies weighing on margins".

While Dubai’s new Al Maktoum facility will have plenty of room for additional flights to make up for the eventual retirement of the A380, other hubs - such as London Heathrow - are more constrained with little room at present for extra services.

The airline will be launching new 'fifth' freedom routes to the U.S.


Source: https://www.arabianbusiness.com/transpo ... t-the-a380
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:57 am

No surprise there, the A380 has a lot of capacity, so finding new routes to put the A380 on must indeed be hard.
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flipdewaf
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:57 am

I would guess that the most slot constrained airports will keep the A380 the longest, I would hope LHR get their 3rd runway before the last EK A380 is retired. Hopefully they can expand into the UK regions with more frequencies going forward.

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zkojq
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:20 am

So, post A380, how many daily flights to LHR is EK going to need to retain capacity? Especially considering that this will probably be ten years from now (so an extra ten years of growth).
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speedbird52
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:35 am

I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:48 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.

My guess is that growth in those markets will come from flights from secondary airports, eg LGW-EWR. There will be many flights from LHR-JFK, but they may be more geared to premium and O&D. The A350 and the B787 will bypass those hubs going to secondary cities from the LHRs of the world. The tertiary cities will get connecting service. The big question on topic is where this leaves EK, and my guess there is that the latest order of A350 and A330neo gives us a big hint. I would bet cash money that the last EK A380 flight will be LHR-DWC/DXB, but not until the 2030s.

And may we both live 15 to 20 more years to see if your guarantee was correct. :smile: :thumbsup:
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:51 am

Dutchy wrote:
No surprise there, the A380 has a lot of capacity, so finding new routes to put the A380 on must indeed be hard.


Think this is the opposite problem - they have a lot of routes where they can comfortably fill an A380, but need to plan what they can no longer use A380s.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:46 am

This may be why EK is establishing themselves in secondary/tertiary London airports. EK is starting a second daily frequency to Stansted from July this year.

We may start seeing more of this from EK in other cities with heavily constrained primary airports. Start building the market at these secondary/tertiary airports and directing public consciousness to these airports before it becomes imperative to operate from there to maintain (and cater to) growth.
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BrianDromey
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:33 am

How much smaller is the capacity of the 777-9X expected to be? Emirates will have significantly more cargo lift, though.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:45 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical.


You are deeply, deeply in denial. First Airbus kills the A380 program. Next the biggest operator says they're basing route planning without 380s - killing the idea that (many, anyway) of recently-delivered A380s will happily be flying another 20 years.

Beijing just built an entirely new airport. FSDan shows UA, the biggest carrier by passenger count across PANYNJ's NYC airports, has 128 50-seat jets of 473 flights at NYC in its summer 2019 schedule, and thus vast room to upgauge. LHR can transition to a more O&D airport with smaller frames (787, 797) opening yet more secondary-secondary routes and bypassing LON entirely as has been the direction since 767 TATL ETOPS twenty-four years ago. You have been absolutely left behind in the critical thinking on this subject.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:45 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.

That was the argument for the A380 in the first place—and we see how well that has turned out. We shouldn’t keep repeating the same argument. Economic downturns occur. Beijing built another massive airport. New York’s traffic became over time less-connection oriented for some, and the connections flowed over other airports. LHR *might* build that third runway.
 
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GCT64
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:59 am

MoKa777 wrote:
This may be why EK is establishing themselves in secondary/tertiary London airports. EK is starting a second daily frequency to Stansted from July this year.

We may start seeing more of this from EK in other cities with heavily constrained primary airports. Start building the market at these secondary/tertiary airports and directing public consciousness to these airports before it becomes imperative to operate from there to maintain (and cater to) growth.


That was how I interpreted and see the situation. In London EK know that with LHR "as is" (no 3rd runway), their ability to obtain more slots at useful times is limited and expensive and that an A380/77X is the maximum capacity they will be able to offer per slot for the foreseeable future, so the capacity growth opportunity is minimal. They would be better educating the public to consider and utilise LGW & STN and at STN, for example, they have the opportunity to establish themselves a/the leading long-haul airline from the airport (e.g. prime lounge location, check-in experience, gates, separate security etc.).
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Exeiowa
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:15 am

If we expecting a major shift of premium passengers to STN they should make it a little nicer.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:17 am

I am very interested to learn about which cities they will be targeting when launching new 5th freedom routes to the U.S. Basically, EK can do whatever they want.
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Waterbomber2
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:23 am

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


People don't get it and won't get it.

For instance, take a look at 9W. 18 widebodies grounded in one of the most booming economies.
How on earth is EK going to absorb any of the demand if they can't grow anymore?
Or BA with their tiny B787's?

Unstoppable growth is happening today.
7% Revenue passenger kilometer growth every 2 years.
We are talking about 9 trillion passenger kilometers growing at 7% reaching towards 10 trillion.
Assuming high utilisation and maximum aircraft density, this yearly growth is equivalent to adding 1200 A320/B737's or 1000 A321's or 800 B787's/A330's, or 700 A350's/B777's or 350 A380's to the worldwide fleet.
The current aircraft production rate can't keep up with this demand, as aircraft are also getting replaced.

At airports, RJ's and turboprops are making place for large narrowbodies, while widebodies are being produced at record high production rates, but not sufficiently fast that they can keep up with the increasing demand.
People are converging towards bigger and bigger cities, where secundary airports are already seeing VLA services while becoming equally constricred. LGW, MAN, AMS, NRT among others.
 
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par13del
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:30 am

Well, EK could essentially offer to be the "national carrier" for any country now challenged in supporting a local airline for long haul operations.
Look at it that way and the options are endless.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:03 pm

GCT64 wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
This may be why EK is establishing themselves in secondary/tertiary London airports. EK is starting a second daily frequency to Stansted from July this year.

We may start seeing more of this from EK in other cities with heavily constrained primary airports. Start building the market at these secondary/tertiary airports and directing public consciousness to these airports before it becomes imperative to operate from there to maintain (and cater to) growth.


That was how I interpreted and see the situation. In London EK know that with LHR "as is" (no 3rd runway), their ability to obtain more slots at useful times is limited and expensive and that an A380/77X is the maximum capacity they will be able to offer per slot for the foreseeable future, so the capacity growth opportunity is minimal. They would be better educating the public to consider and utilise LGW & STN and at STN, for example, they have the opportunity to establish themselves a/the leading long-haul airline from the airport (e.g. prime lounge location, check-in experience, gates, separate security etc.).


Exactly! And as you mention (something I missed), the ability to be the premier airline at an airport is a huge advantage.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:57 pm

Putnik wrote:
I am very interested to learn about which cities they will be targeting when launching new 5th freedom routes to the U.S. Basically, EK can do whatever they want.


Same here! Guessing from their existing MXP & ATH services to NYC I think they may surprise us. ATH was definitely a surprise and I remember a lot of people were speculating if it would last, as some believed it would be low yielding and were confident that the market was very seasonal.

I would guess they might try something from the Balkans, like Croatia or the Mediterranean with no current service to the US like Malta or Cyprus.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:07 pm

We were all wondering at what point EK's network would no longer absorb A380s, and we've found it at around 109 frames or so.

I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:
    :arrow: EK's profits are already down so the pressure is on to do better
    :arrow: RR's earlier PIPs came up short and they will not do any more PIPs
    :arrow: EK will be getting the first 777X production models off the line
    :arrow: EK will be getting A350 and A330neo with a generation newer engine tech
    :arrow: EK's competitors have been rapidly moving to 787 and 777x and A350 and A330neo
    :arrow: Vendors will start jacking up the price of A380 consumables as the production line winds down

They'll probably shrink down to a few of the newest models to service the trunk routes, and everything else will migrate to 777x and below.

They really have no choice, they are under a lot of competitive pressure and everything is leased so there is no advantage to keeping older airplanes in the fleet.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:18 pm

Putnik wrote:
I am very interested to learn about which cities they will be targeting when launching new 5th freedom routes to the U.S. Basically, EK can do whatever they want.


I think you’ve got to look at EU countries where the flag carrier is either weak or has limited US direct connections. ATH & MXP are good examples. Additionally cargo is important.
So the cities that spring to mind are BRU, FCO, GVA, HAM, WAW and possibly BCN.

What a connection does is also make marginal US cities more realistic as it covers both the Euro area and DXB.

BUF BRU DXB? For the Canadian crowd & cargo. Don’t laugh EK took a serious look at BUF to tap the YYZ market a few years ago.

DTW-FCO-DXB

PHX-XXX-DXB

There are many iterations. What I’m trying to say is the potential is in the secondary US cities that cannot justify DXB direct can open two markets while local US govt would neutralize the US 3 criticism by hailing direct service not seen before
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:11 pm

First of all I thought the ME3 agreed not to add anymore 5th freedom routes. Second of all maybe DTW will finally be added to their route network. While I don't think 5th freedom flights benefit any market that doesn't have DXB connected nonstop as I think that kind of defeats the purpose of DXB being the one stop hub that it is to most of the world. But some ideas could be if that's the only way we get EK in Detroit would be DTW-WAW-DXB, DTW-DUB-DXB, DTW-TXL-DXB, DTW-BEG-DXB or DTW-DUS-DXB
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:28 pm

BNA-CDG-DXB?
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:34 pm

"They really have no choice, they are under a lot of competitive pressure and everything is leased so there is no advantage to keeping older airplanes in the fleet."

Revelation - good post, but lessors will have every incentive to encourage EK to extend those 380 leases.
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klm617
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:36 pm

This also might be posturing by Tim Clark about the new rumored JFK-HAM nonstops
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:43 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:48 pm

IMHO EK need something like the A321LR to feed the hub from smaller European cities (Belfast, Cardif, Eindhoven etc ) in the way that TK can sustain multiple 737 flights to every decent sized market within Europe .... a right size fleet of A321LR/A330/A350 with a focus on premium economy markets of 6 hours plus is a very credible possible strategy route
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:51 pm

What Tim is really saying is, EK is planning without him. The man is on his way out and has outlasted his usefulness, watch this space if the inside info is correct.
What has sealed his and his teams fate? The realisation that the 380 has always been an economic pig, the realisation begrudgingly that frustrated and disengagement amongst frontline staff continues unabated and the realisation that little Timmy has been responsible for it all.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:52 pm

Exeiowa wrote:
If we expecting a major shift of premium passengers to STN they should make it a little nicer.

Unlikely. LHR and a small number of other cities will see exceptionally high premium 779s (analogous to BA's high premium widebodies). Low yield traffic will have to go to other airports.

In general, I expect hubbed traffic to grow much slower than P2P. Customers will find alternatives. AMS is too expensive, so my employer flies a large number of people into Germany (DUS) and they drive. Cest la vie. Alternatives are found.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:00 pm

Well there are still over a dozen A380's coming that will be brand, brand new. Unless a dozen of the earlier ones are returned to the lessor EK will need to find 6 or more new routes to put them on. It will be interesting to see how things get shuffled about.
 
fightforlove
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:30 pm

I would assume one can assume that this is good news for the 40x Boeing 787-10 order coming to fruition?
 
LovePrunesAnet
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:47 pm

spinotter wrote:
From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel.


Seriously ? :roll:
Way to derail a thread.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:53 pm

spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.

Now we’re talking! Let’s jack up the cost for an already efficient form of travel, that way I don’t need to sit next to some middle class loser trying to experience life.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 3:54 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Well there are still over a dozen A380's coming that will be brand, brand new. Unless a dozen of the earlier ones are returned to the lessor EK will need to find 6 or more new routes to put them on. It will be interesting to see how things get shuffled about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet was updated this month and says 109 are delivered and 14 more are on order.

2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.

The earlier speculation was around whether or not EK would extend the early ones even further and grow to the full extent of the 23 December 2013 order i.e. around 140 frames, or if they would just let the early ones go and order more if that wasn't enough.

In particular the mooted 20+18 order suggests they thought they needed more, but now we know it's the straw that broke the camel's back.

This report is really kills a lot of earlier speculation, in that it is the first one where EK says it is having a hard time finding places to add more A380s into its network.

Given the A380 will only become less competitive over time, it points to a relatively early wind down of the fleet.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:14 pm

spinotter wrote:
From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2....


Unfortunately the second statement is false, or at least mostly false. Many times one has to be onsite to be hands on with whatever equipment is causing the issue. As for videoconferencing, my company does quite a bit of that (we are very geographically spread out), and it does help to reduce travel a bit; but we've found that it's still necessary to be face to face periodically. Sometimes you just have to operate without a staged environment.

As for the first sentence, I'd be willing to bet that commuting causes at least one and probably two orders of magnitude more pollution of all sorts than air travel. Just getting people to drive to work in cars instead of big-ass pickup trucks would help. But we digress.
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:43 pm

jetblueguy22 wrote:
spinotter wrote:
speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable. The biggest hubs are the biggest hubs for a reason: They are in the largest markets. Cities like London,Beijing, New York, and the like do not show any signs of slowing their growth, and you can only expand airports so far before it becomes impractical. Airlines could just not serve large amounts of passengers and sell their tickets at higher prices, but eventually, it will just make sense to increase capacity. I can almost guarantee that unless there is a major shift in the aviation industry such as SST, or rocket travel, we will see a new VLA within the next 15-20 years.


From an ecological point of view, we have to limit intercontinental travel, national travel, all travel. And with video conferencing and virtual reality there is really no need to pollute with so much CO2. Has anyone done a study of actual versus cybernetic living in its effect on the environment? I know we all love airplanes, but they are terrible polluters, which no one can deny.

Now we’re talking! Let’s jack up the cost for an already efficient form of travel, that way I don’t need to sit next to some middle class loser trying to experience life.

In my best plum-in-mouth attempt at a Masterpiece Theater English twit accent... “Yes, quite. One doesn’t need all the riff-raff clogging up the airport. Back to the good old days when only our sort could holiday, what?”
 
musman9853
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:58 pm

fightforlove wrote:
I would assume one can assume that this is good news for the 40x Boeing 787-10 order coming to fruition?


seems unlikely to happen. the a330neo and a350 order to replace the a380s seems to be EK's "small" widebody picks
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ER757
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:10 pm

fightforlove wrote:
I would assume one can assume that this is good news for the 40x Boeing 787-10 order coming to fruition?

Doubtful - I think that ship sailed when they cancelled the last portion of their A380 orders and went with 330NEO and 350's
 
ltbewr
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:33 pm

The last major world recession was in 2008. We may be overdue for another, triggered by disruptions and rising oil prices, Brexit and who knows what. Demand for air travel will flatten out for several years and that could mean less need for all of EK's 380's.
 
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 5:47 pm

emiratesdriver wrote:
What has sealed his and his teams fate? The realisation that the 380 has always been an economic pig,

Ask this question, if EK did not have the A380 how much of the traffic that they carried via the Middle East would have been done by the various European carriers either with their A380's or something else using other transit points?
Regardless of the economic situation of the A380, its use was also on a nation scale to bring pax via Dubai as well as to "run" other carriers to ground.
I accept that the A380 and the transit operation in Dubai grew traffic, but we also have to accept that it also took traffic away from other carriers.

So in a nutshell, let's call the A380 a loss leader if we want to call it an economic pig.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:10 pm

Why hasn't the press asked Sir Tim about the B787 order, it seems strange
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:17 pm

par13del wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
What has sealed his and his teams fate? The realisation that the 380 has always been an economic pig,

Ask this question, if EK did not have the A380 how much of the traffic that they carried via the Middle East would have been done by the various European carriers either with their A380's or something else using other transit points?
Regardless of the economic situation of the A380, its use was also on a nation scale to bring pax via Dubai as well as to "run" other carriers to ground.
I accept that the A380 and the transit operation in Dubai grew traffic, but we also have to accept that it also took traffic away from other carriers.

So in a nutshell, let's call the A380 a loss leader if we want to call it an economic pig.

Europe intentionally underexpanded. AMS has run out of slots as has LHR. EK expanding to secondary airports in reality helped Europe. By forcing transportation to be more efficient is an economic lubricant.

The continued thread of EK will help EU airports expand.

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Revelation
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:24 pm

fcogafa wrote:
Why hasn't the press asked Sir Tim about the B787 order, it seems strange

It doesn't seem strange to me.

EK has a long standing 777x order, and has just cancelled a lot of A380s and added a lot of A350 and A330neo.

It turns out DWC is not getting the funding needed to bring it online any time soon, and A380 production is being wound down.

It seem managing these transitions is enough work, without trying to find ways to squeeze in a 787 order on top of all that.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Well there are still over a dozen A380's coming that will be brand, brand new. Unless a dozen of the earlier ones are returned to the lessor EK will need to find 6 or more new routes to put them on. It will be interesting to see how things get shuffled about.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_fleet was updated this month and says 109 are delivered and 14 more are on order.

2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.

The earlier speculation was around whether or not EK would extend the early ones even further and grow to the full extent of the 23 December 2013 order i.e. around 140 frames, or if they would just let the early ones go and order more if that wasn't enough.

In particular the mooted 20+18 order suggests they thought they needed more, but now we know it's the straw that broke the camel's back.

This report is really kills a lot of earlier speculation, in that it is the first one where EK says it is having a hard time finding places to add more A380s into its network.

Given the A380 will only become less competitive over time, it points to a relatively early wind down of the fleet.


EK's current fleet of A380s probably should be around 80 right now, not the 100+ they have currently, your comment that EK is having a hard time placing added A380's profitably.

Five years out EK should reduce its A380 fleet to around 60, and to around 40 in 10 years.

Somehow they need to capture a lot of traffic from India to increase traffic.
 
mchei
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
This also might be posturing by Tim Clark about the new rumored JFK-HAM nonstops


Really? I mean United couldn’t even run the route with a 757 and LH does everything to bring you through FRA or MUC. Now, they also seem to try to push ZRH as a (mini) hub. HAM is well connected to all of the three.

Edit

I’m sorry. United ran Newark and not JFK. Still TATL :(
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lightsaber
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:18 pm

Revelation wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Why hasn't the press asked Sir Tim about the B787 order, it seems strange

It doesn't seem strange to me.

EK has a long standing 777x order, and has just cancelled a lot of A380s and added a lot of A350 and A330neo.

It turns out DWC is not getting the funding needed to bring it online any time soon, and A380 production is being wound down.

It seem managing these transitions is enough work, without trying to find ways to squeeze in a 787 order on top of all that.

In a way, we have come full circle. Without high EK profits, DWC cannot be built out. Without DWC (and bilateral expansion), EK has limited headroom. Cest la vie.

I happen to agree with the later post that EK currently has too many A380. I think 80 to 90 would be correct today. As more bypass occurs and more A359, 787, and 777x enter the global fleet, reducing competition's costs, the number will decline. It won't be a crisis, but it does mean I bet against any A380 getting the 12 year overhaul. The aircraft and maintenance deposit will be handed to the leasing company and that will be that.

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dmstorm22
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:30 pm

lightsaber wrote:

The continued thread of EK will help EU airports expand.

Lightsaber


Assume you meant threat, but yes this is a great point.

Also can expand it to the increasing population with access ($$) to air travel is transitioning from helping EK to potentially hurting it.

In early growth days, the expanded pop in places like India, Africa, ME, all got pushed through ME3 because of the scope of their network.

However, we are reaching the point where the demand for travel in these countries can support direct O&D flights - as we see with the growth of airlines in Africa, the increasing ability for places to offer non-stop flights into India, etc.

ME3 will have their place because of its inherent geographical advantage, but they were winning a lot of traffic essentially due to its scale was so superior to smaller locations, but those smaller locations are just starting to have the economic base to support any sort of O&D international network.
 
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enilria
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:35 pm

speedbird52 wrote:
I just don't see how frequency over capacity is sustainable.

That is a totally non-sensical statement that flies in the face of economics across the industry. Frequency always generate better revenue results (equalizing for differences in connections on different flights and undesirable flight times like 2am departures) than the same seats operated on fewer flights until you get down to aircraft sizes that people avoid like small RJs and turboprops. This is the reason that almost nobody bought the A380. Frequency actually wins almost every time. Not the reverse. LOL
xwb777 wrote:
The airline will be launching new 'fifth' freedom routes to the U.S.

This is highly interesting. I think this has less to do with generating traffic en route and more to do with being able to continue growing. It's not unlike Norwegian's strategy. I'm not sure I totally buy into it, but this implies they have found some degree of success in the few they now operate.
Revelation wrote:
I think the A380 drop off will be swifter than many predict:

I agree. I think they will start shrinking the fleet fair quickly. I still think the wind down is probably most of two decades, but I could see them cutting the fleet by more than half in 10 years.
 
CALMSP
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:46 pm

mchei wrote:
klm617 wrote:
This also might be posturing by Tim Clark about the new rumored JFK-HAM nonstops


Really? I mean United couldn’t even run the route with a 757 and LH does everything to bring you through FRA or MUC. Now, they also seem to try to push ZRH as a (mini) hub. HAM is well connected to all of the three.

Edit

I’m sorry. United ran Newark and not JFK. Still TATL :(


I'd say that UA could run HAM, but along with STR, determined they could make more money by funneling that traffic through FRA/MUC.
 
smartplane
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.

EK A380 leases are predominantly 12 year plus 1+1. Not all are published, depending on the funding vehicle used.

If aircraft receive a mid-lease interior update around Y6-7 will be an indication of whether EK plan to operate beyond 12 years. If the update is later, suggests purchase likely, and EOL modified.

At 12 years, EK have the option to extend lease (least likely), negotiate new ad hoc lease extension (including forgiving all / some EOL fees) or purchase.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Tim Clark: Emirates is planning its network without the A380

Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:51 pm

smartplane wrote:
Revelation wrote:
2020 is when the first frames come off lease, given the first was delivered 28 July 2008 and they typically sign 10 year leases with options for two year extensions which presumably they had been exercising in the past, but presumably won't be going forward.

EK A380 leases are predominantly 12 year plus 1+1. Not all are published, depending on the funding vehicle used.

If aircraft receive a mid-lease interior update around Y6-7 will be an indication of whether EK plan to operate beyond 12 years. If the update is later, suggests purchase likely, and EOL modified.

At 12 years, EK have the option to extend lease (least likely), negotiate new ad hoc lease extension (including forgiving all / some EOL fees) or purchase.

Thank you for the clarifications/corrections.

Seems July 2020 is when we should look to see if EK is returning an A380 to a lessor or not.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own

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