• 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
 
jimmyah
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 1:47 am

Mr AirNZ wrote:
PA515 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?

The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515

An investor presentation is scheduled for Monday at 1.30pm and pre-dated the Reuters announcement by almost a week. This isn't a rush job, this has been planned in advance..
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334588


You can watch the presentation at https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/sx7i3s9u
 
User avatar
DUDtoDFW
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:28 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:05 am

If the order news on Monday is for more 789s, then my suspicion is that the best ultimate replacement for the 77W would be... even more 789s. Forget the 7810, 77X, or A359/3510, and standardize on a single (smaller) size, which would enable more flexibility in adding frequencies to different North American ports and with different premium/economy densities depending on the specifics of each market.

The 789 clearly has the legs to carry cargo to the West Coast US along with a full passenger load. Lower seat count on LAX-LHR vs 77W would let NZ obtain even higher yields out of its loyal customers on that route. Getting additional slots to add extra services in North America shouldn't be a huge issue anywhere except for maybe SFO and EWR, but if profits are high enough on those routes then presumably it's in UA's interest to dedicate more of its slot portfolio at those airports to the NZ JV, whether flown on NZ or UA metal. UA can always find a way to drop the 14th 738 of the day to DEN, or the 7th CR2 to RNO...

Replacing the 7-8x 77Ws with say 11x 789s, to keep overall seat count roughly similar, when added to the 9-10 that may replace the 77Es, would result in a simple, flexible long haul fleet of just one type - 33-34 789s. Surely the cheapest and most efficient outcome for an airline NZ's size.
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1173
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:17 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
Surely the cheapest and most efficient outcome for an airline NZ's size.


...and the most boring for aviation enthusiasts, but that, of course, doesn't matter. :?
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1173
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:19 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
If the order news on Monday is for more 789s, then my suspicion is that the best ultimate replacement for the 77W would be... even more 789s. Forget the 7810, 77X, or A359/3510, and standardize on a single (smaller) size, which would enable more flexibility in adding frequencies to different North American ports and with different premium/economy densities depending on the specifics of each market.

The 789 clearly has the legs to carry cargo to the West Coast US along with a full passenger load. Lower seat count on LAX-LHR vs 77W would let NZ obtain even higher yields out of its loyal customers on that route. Getting additional slots to add extra services in North America shouldn't be a huge issue anywhere except for maybe SFO and EWR, but if profits are high enough on those routes then presumably it's in UA's interest to dedicate more of its slot portfolio at those airports to the NZ JV, whether flown on NZ or UA metal. UA can always find a way to drop the 14th 738 of the day to DEN, or the 7th CR2 to RNO...

Replacing the 7-8x 77Ws with say 11x 789s, to keep overall seat count roughly similar, when added to the 9-10 that may replace the 77Es, would result in a simple, flexible long haul fleet of just one type - 33-34 789s. Surely the cheapest and most efficient outcome for an airline NZ's size.


oh, and I totally agree with your assessment - I think that is what we will see. Maybe, with a bit of luck, a few -10s in there for Asia, but mostly -9s...
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:22 am

PA515 wrote:
PA515 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?

The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515


Definitely Monday according to the NZ Herald.

The engine maker that has won the Air NZ deal will also be in town on Monday.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234014

PA515


If anyone is still hoping for an A350 announcement, I'd suggest they don't create a TAB account.

Should we have a final run for predictions on what the order/announcement will be for? firm orders, options, types etc...
 
User avatar
DUDtoDFW
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:28 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:30 am

zkeoj wrote:
...and the most boring for aviation enthusiasts, but that, of course, doesn't matter. :?


Yes, boring for aviation enthusiasts, and an unavoidable 3x3x3 squeeze for the Y passenger no matter where you fly. I was really hoping for the A359 to be chosen.

At least given New Zealand's location we can look forward to continued service from inefficient, mismanaged but relatively luxurious Asian and Middle Eastern airlines, sending every different wide body imaginable into Auckland. I'm reasonably confident we'll never see a single wide body fleet at TG or CI!
 
User avatar
CraigAnderson
Posts: 298
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 2:59 am

Also definitely Monday says AusBT, and although not mentioned, whispers say NZ is be flying several international media into AKL for the Monday announcement, so I'd count this as 'locked and loaded'.
https://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealan ... ource=hero
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 4:28 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
If the order news on Monday is for more 789s, then my suspicion is that the best ultimate replacement for the 77W would be... even more 789s. Forget the 7810, 77X, or A359/3510, and standardize on a single (smaller) size, which would enable more flexibility in adding frequencies to different North American ports and with different premium/economy densities depending on the specifics of each market.

The 789 clearly has the legs to carry cargo to the West Coast US along with a full passenger load. Lower seat count on LAX-LHR vs 77W would let NZ obtain even higher yields out of its loyal customers on that route. Getting additional slots to add extra services in North America shouldn't be a huge issue anywhere except for maybe SFO and EWR, but if profits are high enough on those routes then presumably it's in UA's interest to dedicate more of its slot portfolio at those airports to the NZ JV, whether flown on NZ or UA metal. UA can always find a way to drop the 14th 738 of the day to DEN, or the 7th CR2 to RNO...

Replacing the 7-8x 77Ws with say 11x 789s, to keep overall seat count roughly similar, when added to the 9-10 that may replace the 77Es, would result in a simple, flexible long haul fleet of just one type - 33-34 789s. Surely the cheapest and most efficient outcome for an airline NZ's size.


I’m quite confident there will be 78Js as part of if not this entire order. And it will be good for AKL-LAX/SFO by the time they need a 77W replacement in the mid/late 2020s.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 4:30 am

NZ6 wrote:
PA515 wrote:
PA515 wrote:
The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515


Definitely Monday according to the NZ Herald.

The engine maker that has won the Air NZ deal will also be in town on Monday.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234014

PA515


If anyone is still hoping for an A350 announcement, I'd suggest they don't create a TAB account.

Should we have a final run for predictions on what the order/announcement will be for? firm orders, options, types etc...


6 78Js, maybe just a partial 772 replacement, with the orders they pushed out, they will option another 18 787s version unspecified to cover remaining 772/77W replacement later.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 5:31 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I’m quite confident there will be 78Js as part of if not this entire order.

So no prospect of an NZ service to EWR, then?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 6:04 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I’m quite confident there will be 78Js as part of if not this entire order.

So no prospect of an NZ service to EWR, then?


Yes there will be, weather they order more 789s remains to be seen, I think they will at some point. How that would affect EWR I’m not sure.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4995
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 6:21 am

NZ6 reply 249:
Well. QF have proven their LOPA makes travelling over that distance viable with this aircraft

What is LOPA,please?
I realise project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR.

No it's NOT! It's about connecting SYD/MEL with LHR FIRST. East Coast Australia with east coast North America [basically NYC] second. Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise but LHR is reason one.

Gemuser
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 2:47 am

CHC fog this morning saw plenty of diversions including SQ297 to AKL, first SQ A350 to AKL 9V-SMD.

They didn’t go for WLG.
 
jimmyah
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 2:59 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
CHC fog this morning saw plenty of diversions including SQ297 to AKL, first SQ A350 to AKL 9V-SMD.

They didn’t go for WLG.


Not sure of A350 is certified for WLG.

NZ have also put on a 772 (the ex SQ one) from AKL-CHC to clear the backlog of passengers.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 3:05 am

Gemuser wrote:
NZ6 reply 249:
Well. QF have proven their LOPA makes travelling over that distance viable with this aircraft

What is LOPA,please?


LOPA: Layout Of Passenger Accommodation.

Seat map, gallies, lavatories etc... otherwise known as a detailed version of the seat map.

Gemuser wrote:
I realise project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR.

No it's NOT! It's about connecting SYD/MEL with LHR FIRST. East Coast Australia with east coast North America [basically NYC] second. Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise but LHR is reason one.

Gemuser


Are you a QF employee or have you seen the Business Case for this project? My understanding directly from QF employees is that while LHR is the primary objective as is the 'face of the project' of the project also requires flights from East Coast Australia to East Coast to the USA. Meaning it's including in the Sunrise project scope.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 3:18 am

DUDtoDFW wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
...and the most boring for aviation enthusiasts, but that, of course, doesn't matter. :?


Yes, boring for aviation enthusiasts, and an unavoidable 3x3x3 squeeze for the Y passenger no matter where you fly. I was really hoping for the A359 to be chosen.

At least given New Zealand's location we can look forward to continued service from inefficient, mismanaged but relatively luxurious Asian and Middle Eastern airlines, sending every different wide body imaginable into Auckland. I'm reasonably confident we'll never see a single wide body fleet at TG or CI!


Really?

Let's see the options are 787 or the A350....

The 787 has had a two-year head start on the A350 yet Boeing has received 1,441 orders for the type while Airbus has only had 893 (Wiki data)

I'm not going to get into the 787 v A350 debate on which aircraft is better as it differs from airline to airline. My point is, the 787 is a very popular aeroplane and is at least equal if not more popular than the A350. Now show me an airline who has anything other than 3-3-3 in Economy.

The 787 fuselage width is 5.49m while the A350 is 5.61m, so the difference across all 9 passengers and two aisles is 12cm... forget the aisles it's 13mm each!! is it that much of a game changer?
 
Unclekoru
Posts: 302
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 3:45 am

jimmyah wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
CHC fog this morning saw plenty of diversions including SQ297 to AKL, first SQ A350 to AKL 9V-SMD.

They didn’t go for WLG.


Not sure of A350 is certified for WLG.

NZ have also put on a 772 (the ex SQ one) from AKL-CHC to clear the backlog of passengers.


Crew unlikely to be WLG qualified either. Will be either a Cat B or C aerodrome.
It sounds like english, but I can't understand a word you're saying
 
downdata
Posts: 557
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2016 2:38 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 4:49 am

NZ6 wrote:
DUDtoDFW wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
...and the most boring for aviation enthusiasts, but that, of course, doesn't matter. :?


I'm not going to get into the 787 v A350 debate on which aircraft is better as it differs from airline to airline. My point is, the 787 is a very popular aeroplane and is at least equal if not more popular than the A350. Now show me an airline who has anything other than 3-3-3 in Economy.

The 787 fuselage width is 5.49m while the A350 is 5.61m, so the difference across all 9 passengers and two aisles is 12cm... forget the aisles it's 13mm each!! is it that much of a game changer?


Apples and oranges. Might as well compare sales of a320 and the 747. You conveniently forgot there are three models of 787 and two types for the a350.
 
Gemuser
Posts: 4995
Joined: Mon Nov 24, 2003 12:07 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 5:16 am

Gemuser wrote:
I realise project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR.

No it's NOT! It's about connecting SYD/MEL with LHR FIRST. East Coast Australia with east coast North America [basically NYC] second. Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise but LHR is reason one.

Gemuser


Are you a QF employee or have you seen the Business Case for this project? My understanding directly from QF employees is that while LHR is the primary objective as is the 'face of the project' of the project also requires flights from East Coast Australia to East Coast to the USA. Meaning it's including in the Sunrise project scope.

Now go back and read what I actually said " Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise". I never disputed that NA is necessary, BUT for various reasons economic, political & PR [emotional] LHR is the first obbjective. If you doubt that go & read the Hudson Fysh books, the Gunn books, other books on QF history & Crisp on Australian politics.
It's not called the "Holyb Grail" for nothing!

Gemuser
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 5:38 am

downdata wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DUDtoDFW wrote:

I'm not going to get into the 787 v A350 debate on which aircraft is better as it differs from airline to airline. My point is, the 787 is a very popular aeroplane and is at least equal if not more popular than the A350. Now show me an airline who has anything other than 3-3-3 in Economy.

The 787 fuselage width is 5.49m while the A350 is 5.61m, so the difference across all 9 passengers and two aisles is 12cm... forget the aisles it's 13mm each!! is it that much of a game changer?


Apples and oranges. Might as well compare sales of a320 and the 747. You conveniently forgot there are three models of 787 and two types for the a350.


Hardly apples and oranges, both the current generation carbon fibre twin-aisle jets seating around the 300 seat mark +/- based on variant and config.

The 787 has 3 variants and the A350 had three but one was dropped by Airbus.

The similarities are the exact reason it's never been clear cut which option NZ would go for as a quick example.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 5:52 am

Gemuser wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
I realise project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR.

No it's NOT! It's about connecting SYD/MEL with LHR FIRST. East Coast Australia with east coast North America [basically NYC] second. Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise but LHR is reason one.

Gemuser


Are you a QF employee or have you seen the Business Case for this project? My understanding directly from QF employees is that while LHR is the primary objective as is the 'face of the project' of the project also requires flights from East Coast Australia to East Coast to the USA. Meaning it's including in the Sunrise project scope.

Now go back and read what I actually said " Probably both are necessary to the success of Project Sunrise". I never disputed that NA is necessary, BUT for various reasons economic, political & PR [emotional] LHR is the first obbjective. If you doubt that go & read the Hudson Fysh books, the Gunn books, other books on QF history & Crisp on Australian politics.
It's not called the "Holyb Grail" for nothing!

Gemuser


Yes, but go back and read what I said, "project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR". I understand from QF employees the project scope is ensuring both are viable. SYD-NYC isn't the poster child of the project but that doesn't mean it's not an underlying critical requirement. Obviously connecting Sydney and England is a new feat in aviation which QF is aiming to achieve.

Also under the project scope once QF pulls off, SYD-LHR then SYD-NYC will be possible with the equipment but let's not also forget the other working being done around the policy/legal/unions side of things. For example, having crew that are 'on shift' for in excess of 20hours.

Not directed at you Gemuser but all too often we think operating sectors like this is about demanding Boeing or Airbus deliver an aircraft with engines that can fly in excess of 20 hours, a heap of work is going on to make it happen from cabin interior, tech and cabin crew, passenger wellbeing, all kind of weight issues, will it be 3 meals being served over 2? what challenges does that bring?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 9:14 am

Unclekoru wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
CHC fog this morning saw plenty of diversions including SQ297 to AKL, first SQ A350 to AKL 9V-SMD.

They didn’t go for WLG.


Not sure of A350 is certified for WLG.

NZ have also put on a 772 (the ex SQ one) from AKL-CHC to clear the backlog of passengers.


Crew unlikely to be WLG qualified either. Will be either a Cat B or C aerodrome.


Yes, I’m not surprised they didn’t go for WLG, just to spark discussion, nothing was announced about what cane if the testing Airbus did with the A350 at WLG last year. I’m pretty sure it was airbus wanting to test the A350 on a short wet runway, nothing to do with SQ or NZ per say.
 
tealnz
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 2:01 pm

If it was just about finding a short wet runway there would have been plenty of options much closer to Toulouse. It must have been specific to Wellington – and targeted at airlines potentially flying into WLG. Starting with SQ – which must be close to announcing what will replace the 777s on the Wellington route, and NZ which at that stage was still considering the A350 as a 77E replacement and has an obvious interest in AKL diversion options.
 
DavidJ08
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:18 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 2:42 pm

downdata wrote:
Apples and oranges. Might as well compare sales of a320 and the 747. You conveniently forgot there are three models of 787 and two types for the a350.

Except it's not, though? They're both state-of-the-art widebody airplanes with significant use of composite materials, seating in the 300ish, and able to fly the long-haul flights the 777-200 can do.

I'm also not seeing why "there are three models of 787 and two types for the A350" should justify lower sales numbers, since numbers are not evenly distributed between the models. The third model of 787, the 787-10, is a much later addition to the family, which started being ordered in 2013, and to date has only 173 orders. So you can remove the 787-10 if you like, and that makes 1268 total orders for 787-8 and 787-9, vs 893 orders for the A350-900 and A350-1000.

The 787, the A330neo, the A350, and the 777X are the options currently available to airlines looking to procure a modern, efficient widebody type for their (presumably long-haul) fleet; therefore these airplanes can be compared. On the other hand, airlines don't often/ever ask "should we buy an A320 or a 747?" to use your example.
 
User avatar
DUDtoDFW
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 1:28 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 25, 2019 8:44 pm

NZ6 wrote:
Really?

Let's see the options are 787 or the A350....

The 787 has had a two-year head start on the A350 yet Boeing has received 1,441 orders for the type while Airbus has only had 893 (Wiki data)

I'm not going to get into the 787 v A350 debate on which aircraft is better as it differs from airline to airline. My point is, the 787 is a very popular aeroplane and is at least equal if not more popular than the A350. Now show me an airline who has anything other than 3-3-3 in Economy.

The 787 fuselage width is 5.49m while the A350 is 5.61m, so the difference across all 9 passengers and two aisles is 12cm... forget the aisles it's 13mm each!! is it that much of a game changer?


Yes agree that there isn't much in it between the 787 and A350 width wise (I'm also aware that a 787 will be an improvement in comfort from today's aircraft as 9 abreast 787s replace even tighter 10 abreast 777s). But my experience is that the 'designed for 9 abreast' A350 is a more comfortable ride than the same config in the 787. Maybe just a feature of the airlines in my data set though (SQ for A350 and NZ/AC/CZ for 787). Or a Y class variant of the placebo effect!

The sheer quantity of 787s being sold right now will increase value and liquidity of the aircraft later in life vs others, leading to comparatively low depreciation (and leasing) costs. That alone would put the 789 at in front of the competition before considering other factors. Adding the opportunity to further standardize crew and spares inventories etc must almost make it a no-brainer for NZ, unless airbus had been willing to discount heavily. I suppose that the A350 is popular enough that they didn't need to do that.

The same reasons that make the 787 the obvious choice for NZ, also work for just choosing the 789 and skipping the 7810. Less than 10% of the 787 orderbook is for the largest variant, raising the risk of lower residuals/higher lease costs in that size. I'd be tempted to forgo the incremental revenue opportunity, even if per seat costs are a little lower, if capital costs are materially lower for the 789.
 
Deepinsider
Posts: 154
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:36 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:25 am

It's all going to happen in a few hours. Airbus/Boeing will surely have known for
some time now, and I think it's significant that the Reuters leak came from Paris.
So, 787's galore! Mostly here, the 789 seems to be predicted . There are 13
789's to do the future long range jobs. The 787-10 is incredibly capable, albeit at
less range than the 772. But range won't matter Tasman, or Orient except China.
So that's my pick.
We don't want all our eggs in one basket, so I'd go for GE engines. (After all the
777 fleet is about half and half RR/GE, and we never hear stories to suggest this
is much of a problem)
 
aotearoa
Posts: 154
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 1:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:36 am

With the huge TOW increase, I’m running with mostly 787-10s. Maybe a couple of HGW (if that is what this version is called) 787-9s for EWR ops. GE for sure, as these engines currently burn a little less than the RR.

The TOW increase will make this a/c a true West Coast USA to AKL payload lifter. Amazing for Asia too.

The TOW increase will ultimately drive many more 787-10 sales across multiple airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:59 am

NZ1 LAX-AKL seems to have a scheduled stop over in NAN on Monday morning despite leaving LAX on time, crew issue for some reason? Unless a large group from the UK gong to NAN? ZK-OKM operating.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4316
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:02 am

aotearoa wrote:
With the huge TOW increase, I’m running with mostly 787-10s. Maybe a couple of HGW (if that is what this version is called) 787-9s for EWR ops. GE for sure, as these engines currently burn a little less than the RR.

The TOW increase will make this a/c a true West Coast USA to AKL payload lifter. Amazing for Asia too.

The TOW increase will ultimately drive many more 787-10 sales across multiple airlines.

What huge TOW increase? The only one I’ve heard mentioned is maybe 1-2t and around 1t shaved from the OEW. 1-2t is a bump only. A “huge” increase would be 10t which is almost certainly not going to happen without a serious undercarriage update.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
aotearoa
Posts: 154
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 1:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:14 am

Trust me, it’s a big number. Lots of work done here for NZ and QF. This is a game changer for the 787-10.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:49 am

aotearoa wrote:
Trust me, it’s a big number. Lots of work done here for NZ and QF. This is a game changer for the 787-10.


I’ll wait for the official announcement, however Boeing have to plug the 77W replacement gap with an improved 787-10, big gap from the very capable 789 to the large 778/779 while the A350 sits in the middle and will do well in its own right.

The 787-10 is ideal for some also as a 772 replacement like NZ. Probably QF into Asia aswell, they don’t need any additional range for QF to do that but it could open longer routes for them in future with a decent MTOW increase.
 
tealnz
Posts: 575
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 5:32 pm

The 1% MTOW increase mooted for the 789 was supposedly enabled by the stronger wing-body joint required for the 78J. Meaning that increase would not be available for the 78J itself. If instead we are talking about a significant engineering job that has been done to take the -9 and -10 closer to the A350 in payload range it has been an extremely well kept secret – none of the usual sources (Ostrower, Leeham, WSJ...) have picked up a murmur. I'll be happy to be proved wrong but it's much more likely it's just going to be a combo of a slight reduction in MEW, a slight increase in MTOW, possibly a switch to GE and a much less dense QF-type passenger configuration. And maybe not a one-for-one replacement of the 77Es: if the 789 selection is in part an effort to limit capital expenditure over the next few years, and leave space for a future order of a dozen aircraft to replace the 77Ws, it wouldn't be surprising to see NZ just pick up the remaining 787 options.
 
jimmyah
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:39 pm

8 new 787J's stuff are reporting.
 
WLG787
Posts: 44
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2006 7:46 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:43 pm

So 8 x 787-10 confirmed with options for up to a further 12 - interchangeable between -9 and -10 models! Powered by GE engines

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335068
Last edited by WLG787 on Sun May 26, 2019 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 938
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:43 pm

That's, a lot of plane including the options. O_O

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we’ve ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.


Sounds like they have managed to squeeze a bit more performance out of the B78J.

The first new aircraft is expected to join the Air New Zealand fleet in late 2022 with the remainder delivered at intervals through to 2027.


So a little while to wait.

I'm thinking any chances for Airbus to get the B77W replacement are now pretty damn slim.
Last edited by ZaphodHarkonnen on Sun May 26, 2019 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jimmyah
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:45 pm

WLG787 wrote:
So 8 x 787-10 confirmed with options for up to a further 12 - interchangeable between -9 and -10 models! Powered by GE engines

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/335068


Sounds like they got a good deal
 
x1234
Posts: 506
Joined: Mon Nov 28, 2016 3:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 9:56 pm

I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6975
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:29 pm

x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.


There won’t at this stage be any GE powered 789s, however they have the option to convert to 789s if required.

Not at all surprised by the 78J decision.
 
aerohottie
Posts: 812
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:38 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
That's, a lot of plane including the options. O_O

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we’ve ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.


Sounds like they have managed to squeeze a bit more performance out of the B78J.

The first new aircraft is expected to join the Air New Zealand fleet in late 2022 with the remainder delivered at intervals through to 2027.


So a little while to wait.

I'm thinking any chances for Airbus to get the B77W replacement are now pretty damn slim.

I'm thinking the 12 options will cover the 77W also
What?
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 938
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:38 pm

x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.


Basically confirmed by Luxon. Using the 10 for it to boot.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... ion-centre

Luxon said it had "big ambitions" to fly Auckland to New York with its newly ordered aircraft but also using its existing Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners under a reconfigured cabin.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 938
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:40 pm

aerohottie wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
That's, a lot of plane including the options. O_O

“The 787-10 is longer and even more fuel efficient. However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we’ve ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.


Sounds like they have managed to squeeze a bit more performance out of the B78J.

The first new aircraft is expected to join the Air New Zealand fleet in late 2022 with the remainder delivered at intervals through to 2027.


So a little while to wait.

I'm thinking any chances for Airbus to get the B77W replacement are now pretty damn slim.

I'm thinking the 12 options will cover the 77W also


That was my thinking as well. But that they're option still leaves the chance if Airbus have some truly game changing improvement. But that's such a slim chance I wouldn't bet anything on it.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 10:54 pm

Great news, but I haven't yet seen anything about the capabilities of the proposed 78J purchase. For example, I assume that the airline has assurances that they will be able to fly to the US west coast with a decent payload - that hasn't been the case to the present AFAIK. And I don't see the 78J being able to do AKL-EWR, despite what Stuff wrote. I think the reconfigured 789 is almost certainly the way that will go.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
Posts: 3264
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 26, 2019 11:28 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.


Basically confirmed by Luxon. Using the 10 for it to boot.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indust ... ion-centre

Luxon said it had "big ambitions" to fly Auckland to New York with its newly ordered aircraft but also using its existing Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners under a reconfigured cabin.


I would expect the further 12x options to confirmed over the next 2x FY, e.g the current 789s were all ordered in batches.
 
planemanofnz
Posts: 4296
Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 12:09 am

x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.

Reports saying they are considering Toronto (YYZ) too.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234189.

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3264
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 12:12 am

planemanofnz wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.

Reports saying they are considering Toronto (YYZ) too.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234189.

Cheers,

C.


Wonder if this could having anything todo with the JV they are applying for with AC, adding to AC starting YVR-AKL could free up NZ to start AKL-YYZ say 3x weekly durring the peak season?
 
DavidJ08
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:18 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 12:19 am

I must admit I didn't see the 787-10 coming. I supported the A350-900 on the basis that it was closer in size to the 777-200 being replaced, but didn't think the 787-10 would have the range NZ desired. (I did suspect GE engines would've been chosen, though, given the RR-engine grief.)

I've found NZ's own press release, and I see that they've come to some arrangement regarding range:
However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.

I guess that means they have plans on what the 787-10 will do and have assurances that it will be capable of doing so - I assume that means West Coast of the US on decent payload.


Also I see a flexible deal has been negotiated:
In addition to the eight firm orders announced today, the agreement includes options to increase the number of aircraft from eight to up to 20. The airline has also negotiated substitution rights that allow a switch from the larger 787-10 aircraft to smaller 787-9s, or a combination of the two models for future fleet and network flexibility. The delivery schedule can also be delayed or accelerated according to market demand.

I'm interpreting the 12 options as allowing for 77W replacement plus potential growth later on, which suggests an all-787 fleet (of different 787 models) for the future. Perhaps more 787-10 for 77W replacement (LAX/SFO/LHR), and some extra-low-density 787-9 (with increased MTOW) to allow for EWR?
 
TaniTaniwha
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 12:04 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 12:31 am

As the Press Release says the new batch of -10's are to replace the 777-200's and the deal with Boeing includes assurances the new aircraft will "fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet". I don't expect the -10 to do the US East Coast (as the 772 certainly doesn't). The message to me is that it's the 789 that is the one targeted for that mission.
[photoid][/photoid][photoid][/photoid]
 
NZ6
Posts: 1164
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 1:16 am

x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.


So for certain, the announcement includes an option for 12 additional frames which could be either -10 or -9.

We now get to play guessing games here for a few years to work out it

1. Are the 12 options destined to cover the 77W giving just 5 growth frames?
2. Will ULR come from the options or reconfigured existing fleet? will a code 3 be a hard config or a mask over code 2?
3. How many options will be taken and for what type?

It's good to see the 8 departing frames locked and loaded for replacement. But any fleet growth beyond this years 14th 789 comes out of this order. There will be growth before 2025. What I'm expecting is...

Last few 772 replacement frames have been deferred a few years however as and when the market starts to improve, deliveries will be slid forward and options ordered for the original delivery window essentially keeping some of the 772 in the fleet until late 2020s when these 12 options are taken.

The -10 was dismissed by many based on it's perceived performance and assumptions like NZ's cargo demands or what Boeing was capable of re improvements etc.
 
jimmyah
Posts: 51
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 2:07 am

According to the Investor Day presentation today, deliveries for the 787-10 is as follows (presume these are financial years):

2023 - 1
2024 - 2
2025 - 2
2026 - 1
2027 - 1
2028 - 1
 
a7ala
Posts: 300
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 3:57 am

One of the interesting things to come out of the Air NZ investor presentation was CZ apparently reducing AKL-CAN from 10/week to daily. Does anyone know any more about this as I haven't seen any announcement around it.
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos