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a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 3:57 am

One of the interesting things to come out of the Air NZ investor presentation was CZ apparently reducing AKL-CAN from 10/week to daily. Does anyone know any more about this as I haven't seen any announcement around it.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 6:28 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
I must admit I didn't see the 787-10 coming. I supported the A350-900 on the basis that it was closer in size to the 777-200 being replaced, but didn't think the 787-10 would have the range NZ desired. (I did suspect GE engines would've been chosen, though, given the RR-engine grief.)

I've found NZ's own press release, and I see that they've come to some arrangement regarding range:
However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.

I guess that means they have plans on what the 787-10 will do and have assurances that it will be capable of doing so - I assume that means West Coast of the US on decent payload.


Also I see a flexible deal has been negotiated:
In addition to the eight firm orders announced today, the agreement includes options to increase the number of aircraft from eight to up to 20. The airline has also negotiated substitution rights that allow a switch from the larger 787-10 aircraft to smaller 787-9s, or a combination of the two models for future fleet and network flexibility. The delivery schedule can also be delayed or accelerated according to market demand.

I'm interpreting the 12 options as allowing for 77W replacement plus potential growth later on, which suggests an all-787 fleet (of different 787 models) for the future. Perhaps more 787-10 for 77W replacement (LAX/SFO/LHR), and some extra-low-density 787-9 (with increased MTOW) to allow for EWR?

I’ve got a feeling that Boeing could replace the double bogey with a triple bogey main gear (a la 777). This is the main thing holding the 787 back in terms of MTOW due to pavement loading. A triple bogey would add maybe 2t to the OEW in terms of the gear and strengthening etc but would allow for around 15t in extra MTOW (so 13t more fuel which should give an extra 1600nm range, couple that with a less dense cabin (more premium, less economy - introducing economy plus too) you then get the 2000nm extra range you need. I’m still thinking the 789 will be reconfigured initially but longer term if a 78JER is available then it could work well.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Kiwirob
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 6:35 am

So have the remaining options for the 787-9 expired? They had orders and options totalling 18 frames, they have used 14 of them.
 
Sylus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 6:39 am

Zkpilot wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
I must admit I didn't see the 787-10 coming. I supported the A350-900 on the basis that it was closer in size to the 777-200 being replaced, but didn't think the 787-10 would have the range NZ desired. (I did suspect GE engines would've been chosen, though, given the RR-engine grief.)

I've found NZ's own press release, and I see that they've come to some arrangement regarding range:
However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.

I guess that means they have plans on what the 787-10 will do and have assurances that it will be capable of doing so - I assume that means West Coast of the US on decent payload.


Also I see a flexible deal has been negotiated:
In addition to the eight firm orders announced today, the agreement includes options to increase the number of aircraft from eight to up to 20. The airline has also negotiated substitution rights that allow a switch from the larger 787-10 aircraft to smaller 787-9s, or a combination of the two models for future fleet and network flexibility. The delivery schedule can also be delayed or accelerated according to market demand.

I'm interpreting the 12 options as allowing for 77W replacement plus potential growth later on, which suggests an all-787 fleet (of different 787 models) for the future. Perhaps more 787-10 for 77W replacement (LAX/SFO/LHR), and some extra-low-density 787-9 (with increased MTOW) to allow for EWR?

I’ve got a feeling that Boeing could replace the double bogey with a triple bogey main gear (a la 777). This is the main thing holding the 787 back in terms of MTOW due to pavement loading. A triple bogey would add maybe 2t to the OEW in terms of the gear and strengthening etc but would allow for around 15t in extra MTOW (so 13t more fuel which should give an extra 1600nm range, couple that with a less dense cabin (more premium, less economy - introducing economy plus too) you then get the 2000nm extra range you need. I’m still thinking the 789 will be reconfigured initially but longer term if a 78JER is available then it could work well.


Interesting facts. With that in mind, it does seem possible that the future NZ fleet could be purely 787 family aircraft. Having said that, I wonder what the cargo uplift of a potential 78JER is VS 77W on a AKL-LAX route. Clearly the 77W can uplift more, but will it be a significant enough variation (considering the added fuel efficiency) to warrent an additional type (I.e 77X) ? Interesting times ahead
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 7:00 am

jimmyah wrote:
According to the Investor Day presentation today, deliveries for the 787-10 is as follows (presume these are financial years):

2023 - 1
2024 - 2
2025 - 2
2026 - 1
2027 - 1
2028 - 1

I'll be surprised if they don't take up some 789 options for earlier deliveries than this - otherwise there will be no WB fleet growth between 2019 and 2023 while at the same time they are talking about starting EWR by around 2022. If international capacity will grow at around 3-5% as recently stated, this represents around one new frame required per year, or three more required between now and when the first 78J arrives. Or maybe they will hold on to the two 77Es and one 77W they have on lease to cover 789 downtime - that would fit very neatly into that schedule.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Megatop747-412
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 7:22 am

DavidByrne wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
According to the Investor Day presentation today, deliveries for the 787-10 is as follows (presume these are financial years):

2023 - 1
2024 - 2
2025 - 2
2026 - 1
2027 - 1
2028 - 1

I'll be surprised if they don't take up some 789 options for earlier deliveries than this - otherwise there will be no WB fleet growth between 2019 and 2023 while at the same time they are talking about starting EWR by around 2022. If international capacity will grow at around 3-5% as recently stated, this represents around one new frame required per year, or three more required between now and when the first 78J arrives. Or maybe they will hold on to the two 77Es and one 77W they have on lease to cover 789 downtime - that would fit very neatly into that schedule.


I believe that one of the ex-SQ 77E, ZK-OKI, have been returned to lessor. OKI was ferried to VCV a couple of weeks back, so it looks like only OKJ and OKT are left...
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 8:10 am

DavidByrne wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
According to the Investor Day presentation today, deliveries for the 787-10 is as follows (presume these are financial years):

2023 - 1
2024 - 2
2025 - 2
2026 - 1
2027 - 1
2028 - 1

I'll be surprised if they don't take up some 789 options for earlier deliveries than this - otherwise there will be no WB fleet growth between 2019 and 2023 while at the same time they are talking about starting EWR by around 2022. If international capacity will grow at around 3-5% as recently stated, this represents around one new frame required per year, or three more required between now and when the first 78J arrives. Or maybe they will hold on to the two 77Es and one 77W they have on lease to cover 789 downtime - that would fit very neatly into that schedule.


The thing is the new cabins are surposed to roll out from 2022 with the new fleet aren’t they? So I’m not sure I can see any brand new aircraft from 2019-22.

Nothing mentioned about the leased frames, some of us thought the BR bird might stay, they plan to refresh 15 777s and 13 787s by the end of 2020 which is pretty quick considering some of those will be with C checks, I’d have thought they could do with a little bit of spare capacity to cover, all 789s should be back in service and no refits over December January, while maybe 2 at a time often.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 8:28 am

a7ala wrote:
One of the interesting things to come out of the Air NZ investor presentation was CZ apparently reducing AKL-CAN from 10/week to daily. Does anyone know any more about this as I haven't seen any announcement around it.


I can’t say I noticed anything about CZ in their or Chins for that matter. Certainly not heard that.
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 9:42 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:
One of the interesting things to come out of the Air NZ investor presentation was CZ apparently reducing AKL-CAN from 10/week to daily. Does anyone know any more about this as I haven't seen any announcement around it.


I can’t say I noticed anything about CZ in their or Chins for that matter. Certainly not heard that.


It was mentioned in the presentation around airlines being more rational about serving New Zealand. Mentioned HX exit, D7 exit, lan reduction, and then CZ reducing to daily. Maybe I misheard, but then I went to the CZ website tonight and noticed you could only book daily over sept/Oct so maybe just a seasonal?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 7:18 pm

a7ala wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
a7ala wrote:
One of the interesting things to come out of the Air NZ investor presentation was CZ apparently reducing AKL-CAN from 10/week to daily. Does anyone know any more about this as I haven't seen any announcement around it.


I can’t say I noticed anything about CZ in their or Chins for that matter. Certainly not heard that.


It was mentioned in the presentation around airlines being more rational about serving New Zealand. Mentioned HX exit, D7 exit, lan reduction, and then CZ reducing to daily. Maybe I misheard, but then I went to the CZ website tonight and noticed you could only book daily over sept/Oct so maybe just a seasonal?



I saw the HX and D7 exiting part. It will be seasonal surely.
 
YYZORD
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 7:40 pm

Can't NZ do a route like AKL-YVR-EWR of AKL-YYZ-EWR/LGA similar to what CX does with HKG-YVR-JFK for now till they can serve direct AKL-NYC?

zkncj wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
x1234 wrote:
I see the addition of EWR & GRU in their network with the GE powered 789's. No other expansion.

Reports saying they are considering Toronto (YYZ) too.

See: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234189.

Cheers,

C.


Wonder if this could having anything todo with the JV they are applying for with AC, adding to AC starting YVR-AKL could free up NZ to start AKL-YYZ say 3x weekly durring the peak season?
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 8:44 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Can't NZ do a route like AKL-YVR-EWR of AKL-YYZ-EWR/LGA similar to what CX does with HKG-YVR-JFK for now till they can serve direct AKL-NYC?

Note that YYZ is a lot further than YVR (7500nm vs 6140nm), and YYZ isn't much closer to EWR (7500nm vs 7660nm). In other words, if your airplane can fly far enough to reach YYZ, you can basically fly far enough to reach EWR too without stopping.

A couple of issues with this idea:
1) It's a bit trickier with regulatory approval, especially if they want to market the YVR-EWR segment as a fifth freedom flight. CX has operated the HKG-YVR-JFK for a long time and I wonder if they're only able to do so for historic reasons (i.e. they can do it because they used to do it, while anyone else with the same idea might struggle to gain regulatory approval.)
2) NZ hasn't been keen on the one-stop long-haul routes, and indeed only really does AKL-LAX-LHR nowadays. (RAR-SYD and RAR-LAX are run on subsidy from the Cook Islands, I believe.)
3) NZ already markets EWR/LGA as a one-stop destination from AKL, codesharing on UA flights transiting at LAX, SFO, IAH, and ORD. It also offers non-codeshare one-stop to JFK/EWR on AS (transiting LAX, SFO).
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 9:04 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
they plan to refresh 15 777s and 13 787s by the end of 2020 which is pretty quick considering some of those will be with C checks


Where have you obtained this from?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 9:06 pm

YYZORD wrote:
Can't NZ do a route like AKL-YVR-EWR of AKL-YYZ-EWR/LGA similar to what CX does with HKG-YVR-JFK for now till they can serve direct AKL-NYC?


Goes against the 'Pacific Rim' strategy of single stop flying. It's cheaper to use alliance partners than fly these second leg segments yourself. Customers don't pay more but your operating costs increase something horrific.
 
tu2130
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 9:10 pm

Just got the copy of the Investors Meeting last night I read it and it was a lot of news about like all of the common stuff even an AKL-NYC service for over 18 Hours! That's insane! Am I right? Ordering 8 saying $4 Billion out of their wallet. Wow.
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 10:10 pm

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
they plan to refresh 15 777s and 13 787s by the end of 2020 which is pretty quick considering some of those will be with C checks


Where have you obtained this from?


NZ have said this themselves, I’ll find a source later. Or have I misunderstood? Just a refresh, not new seats or anything.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 10:18 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
they plan to refresh 15 777s and 13 787s by the end of 2020 which is pretty quick considering some of those will be with C checks


Where have you obtained this from?


NZ have said this themselves, I’ll find a source later. Or have I misunderstood? Just a refresh, not new seats or anything.


The new product will come on the 787-10 in 2023. There are some minor changes which will be rolled out over the next 18 months or so but it's not a 'refresh'.


They just spent over $100 million on the 77W refresh, that's expected to see them out and took almost 2 years to complete.
 
PixelPilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 10:32 pm

Maybe the late delivery date aligns with what Boeing is cooking for the 78J (ER?). Potential MTOW increase that will allow those planes to reach west coast easy.
Interesting times ahead.
 
jimmyah
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 11:04 pm

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Where have you obtained this from?


NZ have said this themselves, I’ll find a source later. Or have I misunderstood? Just a refresh, not new seats or anything.


The new product will come on the 787-10 in 2023. There are some minor changes which will be rolled out over the next 18 months or so but it's not a 'refresh'.


They just spent over $100 million on the 77W refresh, that's expected to see them out and took almost 2 years to complete.


Personally, I think that NZ's current hard product in J is where the issue is. It's already massively out of date when you look at the leading airlines (SQ,QF,EK etc) so will 2023 be too late? Will people have already jumped ship?

I think NZ have just got their timing wrong, their 77W refresh was when other airlines were replacing their interiors.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 12:43 am

jimmyah wrote:
Personally, I think that NZ's current hard product in J is where the issue is. It's already massively out of date when you look at the leading airlines (SQ,QF,EK etc) so will 2023 be too late? Will people have already jumped ship?

I think NZ have just got their timing wrong, their 77W refresh was when other airlines were replacing their interiors.


By 'out of date' I can only assume you mean it's not the newest product on the market? Which it's not.

You say, 'where the issue is at'? What exact issue is this?

You need to really understand the market, what the market is made up of, customer segmentation for example and compare the CapEx required to fit the most modern prestigious cabins vs what customers want and what they will pay for.

NZ could spend $500 million now and start rolling out a new cabin across 13x 787 and some of the 15x 777's. What will the ROI be? Will it generate new traffic or higher yields? Will the ROI be via $500 worth of improved customer satisfaction and how will that be reinjected into the business?

Having the best of something isn't always a guarantee in being the most popular or most profitable. Many choose Air New Zealand for the soft service and or all the other products that wrap around it.

Refer to slide 10:
- Record level Overall customer satisfaction

Refer to slide 51:
- The proportion of revenue collected via Business Premier has gone up 3% and in Premium Economy 2%.
- There are several ways to interrupt this, increase in premium seats over economy seats, an increase in BP airfares or a drop in the economy fare or a mixture of both. What it does tell us though is there's been no decline in premium revenue which proves there is still strong demand for it.

Refer to slide 55:
- There is a 5% improvement in the number of Elite members in Business Premier, 2% for Gold and 4% Silver, combined 11% more HVC's in Business Premier over 4 years ago. There is a consistent improvement at all levels in Premium Economy also.
- This proves that customers are repeatedly willing to travel in the premium cabins which is shown in the loyalty stats above.

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 1:56 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Where have you obtained this from?


NZ have said this themselves, I’ll find a source later. Or have I misunderstood? Just a refresh, not new seats or anything.


The new product will come on the 787-10 in 2023. There are some minor changes which will be rolled out over the next 18 months or so but it's not a 'refresh'.


They just spent over $100 million on the 77W refresh, that's expected to see them out and took almost 2 years to complete.



I was under the impression it was a soft refit of sorts, yes I’m aware the 77Ws were only refitted what 2 years ago. I must have misunderstood, I get it alludes to WIFI and other smaller things.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 4:39 am

Disappointing to say the least for us A350 proponents although it makes commonality sense to an extent , Boeing obviously was more desperate to keep NZ Boeing than Airbus was to make NZ Airbus, with heavy discounts and prime slots for 2022 (right when EK would have started to take delivery of 40 787-10s which were dumped in favour of the A330N/ A350). It made me chuckle that the media picked up on the whole New York thing would be operated with the 787-10 as it stands.

I wonder now more about the Y class on delivery and what that means for long-haul travel on a 787. I hope the proposed 4th class is 8 across a la JL with the 9 across sky couches and peasant class behind, but I'm not that optimistic - It is probably just UA style.
It is fairly obvious that the 1) -10s are for freeing up the less than 6400nm 789 sectors for the ultra long haul and IAH/YVR will standardise on the 789/77W.

The premium loads have basically increased by 5% mostly because of one up bids and demand stimulated by competition. They are talking 5% of 26 seats being 1.3 seats or 44 being 2.2 seats. NZ has had to drop their prices significantly to be competitive which means higher demand by more people who are spending less each.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:13 am

The Press Release says:
These new long-haul aircraft will replace Air New Zealand's fleet of eight 777-200 aircraft, which will be phased out by 2025.


However, slide 79 of the presentation has the 787-10 deliveries as:
1 in FY2023
2 in FY2024
2 in FY2025
1 in FY2026
1 in FY2027
1 in FY2028

So, 'by 2025' eight aircraft have been replaced by five ??

PA515
 
cchan
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:55 am

PA515 wrote:
The Press Release says:
These new long-haul aircraft will replace Air New Zealand's fleet of eight 777-200 aircraft, which will be phased out by 2025.


However, slide 79 of the presentation has the 787-10 deliveries as:
1 in FY2023
2 in FY2024
2 in FY2025
1 in FY2026
1 in FY2027
1 in FY2028

So, 'by 2025' eight aircraft have been replaced by five ??

PA515


Plus 2x 789 which has been deferred?
 
strfyr51
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 6:03 am

Zkpilot wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
I must admit I didn't see the 787-10 coming. I supported the A350-900 on the basis that it was closer in size to the 777-200 being replaced, but didn't think the 787-10 would have the range NZ desired. (I did suspect GE engines would've been chosen, though, given the RR-engine grief.)

I've found NZ's own press release, and I see that they've come to some arrangement regarding range:
However, the game changer for us has been that by working closely with Boeing, we've ensured the 787-10 will meet our network needs, including the ability to fly missions similar to our current 777-200 fleet.

I guess that means they have plans on what the 787-10 will do and have assurances that it will be capable of doing so - I assume that means West Coast of the US on decent payload.


Also I see a flexible deal has been negotiated:
In addition to the eight wheel Bogeyfirm orders announced today, the agreement includes options to increase the number of aircraft from eight to up to 20. The airline has also negotiated substitution rights that allow a switch from the larger 787-10 aircraft to smaller 787-9s, or a combination of the two models for future fleet and network flexibility. The delivery schedule can also be delayed or accelerated according to market demand.

I'm interpreting the 12 options as allowing for 77W replacement plus potential growth later on, which suggests an all-787 fleet (of different 787 models) for the future. Perhaps more 787-10 for 77W replacement (LAX/SFO/LHR), and some extra-low-density 787-9 (with increased MTOW) to allow for EWR?

I’ve got a feeling that Boeing could replace the double bogey with a triple bogey main gear (a la 777). This is the main thing holding the 787 back in terms of MTOW due to pavement loading. A triple bogey would add maybe 2t to the OEW in terms of the gear and strengthening etc but would allow for around 15t in extra MTOW (so 13t more fuel which should give an extra 1600nm range, couple that with a less dense cabin (more premium, less economy - introducing economy plus too) you then get the 2000nm extra range you need. I’m still thinking the 789 will be reconfigured initially but longer term if a 78JER is available then it could work well.

Boeing could also go with Larger tires and wheels up to the 49x19 or 50x20 wheels like the DC10 had before adding a larger 6 wheel Bogey and 2 more Brakes.
the carbon Brakes would render the stopping Power while the Larger tires and wheels would support the additional weight.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 7:18 am

cchan wrote:
PA515 wrote:
The Press Release says:
These new long-haul aircraft will replace Air New Zealand's fleet of eight 777-200 aircraft, which will be phased out by 2025.


However, slide 79 of the presentation has the 787-10 deliveries as:
1 in FY2023
2 in FY2024
2 in FY2025
1 in FY2026
1 in FY2027
1 in FY2028

So, 'by 2025' eight aircraft have been replaced by five ??

PA515


Plus 2x 789 which has been deferred?


No 789s have been deferred, it’s the 78J deliveries that were pushed back, however it seems likely that some 772s will stay longer or some 789s could be leased during that time?

I don’t expect any new frames until the 78J arrives late 2022, since the new cabins come out then.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:15 am

PA515 wrote:

So, 'by 2025' eight aircraft have been replaced by five ??

PA515


I would think by then the 77W replacements will have also been announced, and the first few delivered too which should allow the -200s out first to be supplemented by 77Ws until the fleet is delivered.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:22 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

NZ have said this themselves, I’ll find a source later. Or have I misunderstood? Just a refresh, not new seats or anything.


The new product will come on the 787-10 in 2023. There are some minor changes which will be rolled out over the next 18 months or so but it's not a 'refresh'.


They just spent over $100 million on the 77W refresh, that's expected to see them out and took almost 2 years to complete.



I was under the impression it was a soft refit of sorts, yes I’m aware the 77Ws were only refitted what 2 years ago. I must have misunderstood, I get it alludes to WIFI and other smaller things.


I don't think you were the only thrown by these comments... refer page 12-13

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... e-2019.pdf

I don't recall any new product being announced let alone read for installation
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:00 pm

Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:37 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?

It’s the same flights they used to use the Convair 580 on: Friday afternoons AKL-WAG-AKL-WAG, Saturday morning WAG-AKL (with the next AKL-WAG-AKL operated by the Saab), Sunday AKL-WAG-AKL-WAG, and Monday WAG-AKL. Since they stopped using the Convair earlier in the year to WAG, they had gone to three Saab rotations on a Sunday. It looks like with the ATR they will go back to 2.

I wouldn’t hold my breath on CHC (from WAG or elsewhere) though for a few reasons
  • I would hazard a guess that the business traffic and international connecting traffic which are generally the bread and butter of a regional route are not going to justify it.
  • Such a route would require an aircraft to be rotated in from somewhere which would either mean positioning flights or a change the the current schedule between Auckland and Whanganui, which I understand has been timed to suit the needs of the market on that route.
  • It would require a ground handling agent in Christchurch beyond what they currently have for the once-weekly flight to the Chatham Islands, which would mean additional costs. Not a deal breaker of course, but it would need a decent passenger load to make it worthwhile, and I’m not sure a once daily Saab, let alone a Metro, would suffice for that.

Of course all that’s just assumption - would be happy to be proved wrong! Personally for their next untapped market I’d love to see an Auckland-Masterton flight from them.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:42 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?


Is it due to high demand or something to do with aircraft utilisation/availability
 
jimmyah
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 9:44 pm

NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?


Is it due to high demand or something to do with aircraft utilisation/availability


Bit of both I think. ATR has no charters over winter, plus demand on the route has increased.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 10:33 pm

jimmyah wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?


Is it due to high demand or something to do with aircraft utilisation/availability


Bit of both I think. ATR has no charters over winter, plus demand on the route has increased.


Can you support that other than via your assumption?

I'd be surprised if they're keeping 3x daily and have the ability to up-gauge to an ATR by choice.
 
jimmyah
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 10:38 pm

NZ6 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Is it due to high demand or something to do with aircraft utilisation/availability


Bit of both I think. ATR has no charters over winter, plus demand on the route has increased.


Can you support that other than via your assumption?

I'd be surprised if they're keeping 3x daily and have the ability to up-gauge to an ATR by choice.


Thats just what I gathered from reading the article.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 11:04 pm

jimmyah wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:

Bit of both I think. ATR has no charters over winter, plus demand on the route has increased.


Can you support that other than via your assumption?

I'd be surprised if they're keeping 3x daily and have the ability to up-gauge to an ATR by choice.


Thats just what I gathered from reading the article.


It's interesting, I would have thought an extra service, maybe around 1800 would have been preferred over an up-guage.

Wonder how PPQ is working out for them
 
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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5199
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 11:09 pm

NZ6 wrote:
jimmyah wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

Can you support that other than via your assumption?

I'd be surprised if they're keeping 3x daily and have the ability to up-gauge to an ATR by choice.


Thats just what I gathered from reading the article.


It's interesting, I would have thought an extra service, maybe around 1800 would have been preferred over an up-guage.

Wonder how PPQ is working out for them

As I said above:
VirginFlyer wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Just noted that Air Chats is going to use the ATR72 on the WAG route on many services between Fri afternoons and Monday mornings. Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them. How long before we see a daily WAG-CHC with a SWM or SF3?

It’s the same flights they used to use the Convair 580 on: Friday afternoons AKL-WAG-AKL-WAG, Saturday morning WAG-AKL (with the next AKL-WAG-AKL operated by the Saab), Sunday AKL-WAG-AKL-WAG, and Monday WAG-AKL. Since they stopped using the Convair earlier in the year to WAG, they had gone to three Saab rotations on a Sunday. It looks like with the ATR they will go back to 2.


So really this is a return to normal schedule after a period of reduced capacity on Fridays and increased frequency on Sundays. Except now instead of using a 50-seat Convair 580, it’s a 68-seat ATR 72.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:55 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
Since they stopped using the Convair earlier in the year to WAG, they had gone to three Saab rotations on a Sunday. It looks like with the ATR they will go back to 2.

So really this is a return to normal schedule after a period of reduced capacity on Fridays and increased frequency on Sundays. Except now instead of using a 50-seat Convair 580, it’s a 68-seat ATR 72.

V/F

DavidByrne wrote:
Their ability to fill planes on a route that NZ couldn't make work with DH3s is a real credit to them.

jimmyah wrote:
Bit of both I think. ATR has no charters over winter, plus demand on the route has increased.


So they had 2 sectors, did an equipment swap and made it 3 sectors to keep the capacity on the route and are now simply reverting back to similar capacity over 2 sectors now?

Therefore there's nothing to suggest demand on the route has increased and minimal to confirm it's 'working' for them? They could in fact be looking to drive down cost or improve revenue via the ATR over the Saab
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1158
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:04 am

Here is what Air Chats wrote in their email newsletter today:

Flights in and out of Whanganui have become so popular in the last 3 years Air Chathams have decided to fly their newly acquired ATR 72 on the route for weekend flights over the next three months. The ATR 72 can seat up to 68 passengers and is regularly used for charters around New Zealand.

Only a few months out from the airline’s 3 year anniversary servicing Whanganui, it’s also a celebration of growth in demand.

While charter requirements for the ATR72 won’t begin again until September this year, the ATR is scheduled for flights into Whanganui beginning on the 7th of June with a 3:00pm departure from Auckland. For the next few months, Friday afternoon and evening flights, Saturday’s 8:00am flight departing from Whanganui, all Sunday flights and the 6:45am departure on Monday to Auckland will be with the larger plane.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 3:27 am

zkeoj wrote:
Here is what Air Chats wrote in their email newsletter today:

Flights in and out of Whanganui have become so popular in the last 3 years Air Chathams have decided to fly their newly acquired ATR 72 on the route for weekend flights over the next three months. The ATR 72 can seat up to 68 passengers and is regularly used for charters around New Zealand.

Only a few months out from the airline’s 3 year anniversary servicing Whanganui, it’s also a celebration of growth in demand.

While charter requirements for the ATR72 won’t begin again until September this year, the ATR is scheduled for flights into Whanganui beginning on the 7th of June with a 3:00pm departure from Auckland. For the next few months, Friday afternoon and evening flights, Saturday’s 8:00am flight departing from Whanganui, all Sunday flights and the 6:45am departure on Monday to Auckland will be with the larger plane.


But if I understand VirginFlyer correctly, they cut a service and introduced an ATR so overall capacity isn't much better off overall. Is it being dressed up as something it's not?

Will be great for WAG to get this capacity and the economics for Air Chats will be much better. Just trying to analyse the truth.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 7:37 am

An issue which I don't think has yet been explored about NZ's re-equipment decision is the possibility of the 787-8. Various reports, including Flight Global's, have mentioned specifically that the -8 is included as a possible choice for the exercise of the options NZ has taken on the 787. From what I understand, the weight limitation on the -8 is dictated by the wing-body join.The -10 had a new join designed, and this has apparently been fitted to -9s recently to improved payload-range performance. If the same mod was done to the -8, could that turn that aircraft into one which has better performance than the -9 over extreme ranges? Could it become a sort of ULH rocket? If not, what would NZ's strategy have been in including a possible choice of -8s when option exercise come around? Just wondering if someone with the technical knowledge can clarify.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 8:02 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ6 wrote:

The new product will come on the 787-10 in 2023. There are some minor changes which will be rolled out over the next 18 months or so but it's not a 'refresh'.


They just spent over $100 million on the 77W refresh, that's expected to see them out and took almost 2 years to complete.



I was under the impression it was a soft refit of sorts, yes I’m aware the 77Ws were only refitted what 2 years ago. I must have misunderstood, I get it alludes to WIFI and other smaller things.


I don't think you were the only thrown by these comments... refer page 12-13

https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... e-2019.pdf

I don't recall any new product being announced let alone read for installation


Initially I thought it was a light refurbishment if you call it that. I was aware it wasn’t the new product. But I’ve noticed elsewhere some are confused by it
 
zkncj
Posts: 3174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:38 am

DavidByrne wrote:
An issue which I don't think has yet been explored about NZ's re-equipment decision is the possibility of the 787-8. Various reports, including Flight Global's, have mentioned specifically that the -8 is included as a possible choice for the exercise of the options NZ has taken on the 787. From what I understand, the weight limitation on the -8 is dictated by the wing-body join.The -10 had a new join designed, and this has apparently been fitted to -9s recently to improved payload-range performance. If the same mod was done to the -8, could that turn that aircraft into one which has better performance than the -9 over extreme ranges? Could it become a sort of ULH rocket? If not, what would NZ's strategy have been in including a possible choice of -8s when option exercise come around? Just wondering if someone with the technical knowledge can clarify.


Surely the 787-8 is due for a mid-life product refresh within the next couple of years? e.g. an 787-8MAX type of deal with refinements learned for the -9/10s.

787-8 would make an good all Y wide body if NZ ever wanted to head down that track, of just an Y/PE configuration for more holidays routes in the future like AKL-HKT, AKL-DPS etc
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 10:03 am

zkncj wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
An issue which I don't think has yet been explored about NZ's re-equipment decision is the possibility of the 787-8. Various reports, including Flight Global's, have mentioned specifically that the -8 is included as a possible choice for the exercise of the options NZ has taken on the 787. From what I understand, the weight limitation on the -8 is dictated by the wing-body join.The -10 had a new join designed, and this has apparently been fitted to -9s recently to improved payload-range performance. If the same mod was done to the -8, could that turn that aircraft into one which has better performance than the -9 over extreme ranges? Could it become a sort of ULH rocket? If not, what would NZ's strategy have been in including a possible choice of -8s when option exercise come around? Just wondering if someone with the technical knowledge can clarify.


Surely the 787-8 is due for a mid-life product refresh within the next couple of years? e.g. an 787-8MAX type of deal with refinements learned for the -9/10s.

787-8 would make an good all Y wide body if NZ ever wanted to head down that track, of just an Y/PE configuration for more holidays routes in the future like AKL-HKT, AKL-DPS etc


The only way I’d ever see them buying 788s would be if it became an ULH beast and even then it seems unlikely. However it is interesting that it was mentioned in the investor day presentation, keeping all options open.
 
User avatar
Zkpilot
Posts: 4272
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 12:51 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
An issue which I don't think has yet been explored about NZ's re-equipment decision is the possibility of the 787-8. Various reports, including Flight Global's, have mentioned specifically that the -8 is included as a possible choice for the exercise of the options NZ has taken on the 787. From what I understand, the weight limitation on the -8 is dictated by the wing-body join.The -10 had a new join designed, and this has apparently been fitted to -9s recently to improved payload-range performance. If the same mod was done to the -8, could that turn that aircraft into one which has better performance than the -9 over extreme ranges? Could it become a sort of ULH rocket? If not, what would NZ's strategy have been in including a possible choice of -8s when option exercise come around? Just wondering if someone with the technical knowledge can clarify.

The 788 is a dead duck just like the 762 and 772 before it when the 763 and 77W respectively came out. Basically there is practically nothing the 788 can do that the 789 can’t do save for a slightly lower trip cost (which the extra capacity of the 789 more than makes up for). The 788 also lacks commonality with the 789 and 78J. There is a reason why the 789 has outsold the 788 by a ratio of 2:1 and why new 788 orders are almost non-existent.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
Posts: 5199
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:17 pm

NZ6 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
Here is what Air Chats wrote in their email newsletter today:

Flights in and out of Whanganui have become so popular in the last 3 years Air Chathams have decided to fly their newly acquired ATR 72 on the route for weekend flights over the next three months. The ATR 72 can seat up to 68 passengers and is regularly used for charters around New Zealand.

Only a few months out from the airline’s 3 year anniversary servicing Whanganui, it’s also a celebration of growth in demand.

While charter requirements for the ATR72 won’t begin again until September this year, the ATR is scheduled for flights into Whanganui beginning on the 7th of June with a 3:00pm departure from Auckland. For the next few months, Friday afternoon and evening flights, Saturday’s 8:00am flight departing from Whanganui, all Sunday flights and the 6:45am departure on Monday to Auckland will be with the larger plane.


But if I understand VirginFlyer correctly, they cut a service and introduced an ATR so overall capacity isn't much better off overall. Is it being dressed up as something it's not?

Will be great for WAG to get this capacity and the economics for Air Chats will be much better. Just trying to analyse the truth.

It is a bit of both. Until early this year, the Friday afternoon, Saturday morning, Sunday, and Monday morning flights were all operated by a 50-seat Convair. Assuming a 34 seat Saab 340, this gives the following flights/seats each day based on their schedule:

  • Monday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/118
  • Tuesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Wednesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Thursday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Friday: AKL-WAG: 3/134 | WAG-AKL: 3/118
  • Saturday: AKL-WAG: 1/34 | WAG-AKL: 2/84
  • Sunday: AKL-WAG: 2/100 | WAG-AKL: 1/50

When they stopped flying the Convair on the route and replaced it with a Saab, they also introduced a third Sunday rotation, while losing capacity on the other days:

  • Monday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Tuesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Wednesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Thursday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Friday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Saturday: AKL-WAG: 1/34 | WAG-AKL: 2/68
  • Sunday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 2/68

Now with a 68 seat ATR 72 (assuming they’ve kept the same configuration Air New Zealand had) this allows them to return to the seat count they previously had available, plus some room for growth:

  • Monday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/136
  • Tuesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Wednesday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Thursday: AKL-WAG: 3/102 | WAG-AKL: 3/102
  • Friday: AKL-WAG: 3/170 | WAG-AKL: 3/136
  • Saturday: AKL-WAG: 1/34 | WAG-AKL: 2/102
  • Sunday: AKL-WAG: 2/136 | WAG-AKL: 1/68

Given three years ago Whanganui was 1900s on Air NZ then Metros on Air Chathams, they’ve definitely done a fine job growing the market. What will really be interesting is to see what happens to the capacity when the ATR becomes needed for the charter work again in September.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
GW54
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 3:05 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 5:16 pm

Is anybody able to confirm expected delivery dates for A321 NEO's NNF and NNG and A320 NEO NHD?
 
zkncj
Posts: 3174
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 8:29 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Given three years ago Whanganui was 1900s on Air NZ then Metros on Air Chathams, they’ve definitely done a fine job growing the market. What will really be interesting is to see what happens to the capacity when the ATR becomes needed for the charter work again in September.

V/F


Could be testing the water with the ATRs assuming NZ has probably offered them the option to purchase the remaining -500s.
 
PA515
Posts: 1482
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:18 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
GW54 wrote:
Is anybody able to confirm expected delivery dates for A321 NEO's NNF and NNG and A320 NEO NHD?


I don't have exact dates, but going by Slide 18 of the 27 May 2019 Investor Day presentation and the aibfamily.flights production list info.
Owned A321 NEO ZK-NNF (msn 8839) D-AYAR in June 2019 (painted in April 2019).
Owned A321 NEO ZK-NNG (msn 8908) D-AVZN in July 2019 (painted in April 2019).
Leased A320 NEO ZK-NHD in FY2020. (not in the aibfamily.flights production list yet, so probably between September and December 2019).

ZK-NNF was not sighted in a 24 May XFW spotting report, so probably in a hangar.
ZK-NNG was moved from the Riverside Store for a leak test on 24 May (second photo of this link).

http://www.aviation-friends-hamburg-for ... kenwerder/

PA515
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 908
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:26 pm

IIRC with a recent US3 order the B788 is getting a lot of the B789 refinements backported into it. So the commonality should be improving hugely. If that then results in further improved range then maybe it will be a serious option.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:43 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Given three years ago Whanganui was 1900s on Air NZ then Metros on Air Chathams, they’ve definitely done a fine job growing the market. What will really be interesting is to see what happens to the capacity when the ATR becomes needed for the charter work again in September.V/F


I think there are some massive assumptions (not suggesting you VF but in general) that the ATR is a sign that Air Chatham's has grown the market beyond what it actually is. Don't get me wrong either, there is a market in WAG I just highly doubt its growth or size reflects an ATR.

I suspect it's more to do with
    Aircraft availability/utilisation
    Aircraft economics
    Combination of both.

Looking at the different customer segments in the NZ market (https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf) page 44.

- Inbound Tourism relies on international connectivity unless you're somehow familiar with 3C and/or have a need to go to WAG (family). This would be a very very small selection
- Domestic Tourism, a slightly larger group but still a reasonably small pool of people predominantly visiting friends/family.
- Business Travel, the backbone of the sector. This segment traditional demands and relies on frequency. Is 3C playing with capacity (economics) over frequency? For example, if I need to go to WAG next Friday, my last flight home is 1645. If I miss that I'm stuffed and It's right on the back end of the business day, if I use PMR, I have 1700, 1845, 2040. It's not just flexibility, it's also contingency for weather and mechanical issues.

You may find, it's cheaper to operate the ATR than say the SAAB but the additional seats allows 3C to reduce airfares but still generate more revenue. You may also find, the SAAB is better deployed elsewhere, however, I'd have thought PPQ would have been an option for the ATR given how much demand is supposedly there.

A quick skim of their pricing over the coming weeks and jumping ahead a month or two, their last-minute pricing is cheaper the NZ ex PMR but their forward sale fares are double NZ's ($49 v $99). To me, very quickly I'm going to assume 3C has a reliable flow of passengers, however, potentially can't lower airfares due to the available inventory or economics of the SAAB/Convair etc which is reflective in the gap between entry fares and last-minute fares. It seems their full fares are $308 but on almost every day I looked, I found fares half that price.

It will be interesting to see if 3C does anything to fill this capacity (early bird sales, last minute standby offers etc) or if they attempt to fill capacity via conventional sales or oddly enough do nothing
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