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NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 9:49 pm

zkncj wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Given three years ago Whanganui was 1900s on Air NZ then Metros on Air Chathams, they’ve definitely done a fine job growing the market. What will really be interesting is to see what happens to the capacity when the ATR becomes needed for the charter work again in September.

V/F


Could be testing the water with the ATRs assuming NZ has probably offered them the option to purchase the remaining -500s.


But where and how would they use them? Personally, I'd love to see 3C do well I just struggle to see how they'd use them. maybe AKL-PPQ, PPQ-CHC, PPQ-ZQN... but I'm clutching at straws.

Remember their 'mainland' services are only... AKL-WHK, AKL-WAG, AKL-PPQ oh, and that AKL-NLK flight?
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 10:37 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
IIRC with a recent US3 order the B788 is getting a lot of the B789 refinements backported into it. So the commonality should be improving hugely. If that then results in further improved range then maybe it will be a serious option.

NZ has been talking about a poss code 3 787-9 which might carry about the same (perhaps) as QF's which might be around 235 seats. This represents a heavier premium focus which may or may not be too much for a long thin route.

If by tweaking the 787-8 Boeing can get a decent range increase then the same 235 pax in a more "traditional" NZ mix could possibly be carried in a smaller, cheaper and lower trip cost frame than the -9. Maybe even some westbound freight. Sure, it will lack the higher number of premium seats of the Code 3 787-9 but it's far from established that NYC would need a strongly premium-heavy aircraft anyway.

If NZ is serious about future ports such as YYZ, GRU etc, then a small subfleet of an enhanced 788 may actually give better payload-range outcomes than the current 789. Would be keen to see some analysis as to what 788 weight increases might be possible (for example by using the 789 wing join) and what that might mean for its ULH capabilities.

All purely hypothetical, I know. But if NZ has requested the specific ability to take 788s amongst their optioned aircraft, you do have to ask "why would they do that?" Given that Boeing has said nothing so far about the tweaks to the -10 which have apparently been made to make that a/c acceptable to NZ, it would not surprise me if there are also moves behind the scenes to improve the 787-8 that NZ may have a close interest in.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
User avatar
VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:20 pm

NZ6 wrote:
I suspect it's more to do with
    Aircraft availability/utilisation
    Aircraft economics
    Combination of both.

I would hazard a guess that is a decent part of the story - I would be surprised if the ATR’s operating cost exceeded the Convair’s, so it is a good way to offer the extra seats needed for the peaks of business travel, using an aircraft that would otherwise be mostly idle.

NZ6 wrote:
Looking at the different customer segments in the NZ market (https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... tation.pdf) page 44.

- Inbound Tourism relies on international connectivity unless you're somehow familiar with 3C and/or have a need to go to WAG (family). This would be a very very small selection
- Domestic Tourism, a slightly larger group but still a reasonably small pool of people predominantly visiting friends/family.
- Business Travel, the backbone of the sector. This segment traditional demands and relies on frequency. Is 3C playing with capacity (economics) over frequency? For example, if I need to go to WAG next Friday, my last flight home is 1645. If I miss that I'm stuffed and It's right on the back end of the business day, if I use PMR, I have 1700, 1845, 2040. It's not just flexibility, it's also contingency for weather and mechanical issues.

Looking at Air Chathams’ timings, it would appear the flights are timed well for business travel from the regions to Auckland, with early morning departures having passengers in Auckland by 8am, and departures going out after 6pm, coupled with middle of the day services allowing half day (or 1 and a half day and so on) trips.

I wonder how much the move to the new TTI reservations system they did a couple of months back will allow them to gain a greater presence for inbound flights? Be interesting to watch this space.

One segment you haven’t mentioned which seems to be reasonable (if you watch the number of people queuing up for Air Chathams holding duty free bags) is domestic-international connections.

On topic, I can’t see them replacing all the Saab services with the ATR, but I would be very surprised if they didn’t continue to find ways to use it on the busier times to boost capacity. That would also free up a Saab to operate to another port on peak times (perhaps one where a runway end safety area is currently progressing...)

As I said before, it will be interesting to see what happens when the charter work resumes in September.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 1:47 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
One segment you haven’t mentioned which seems to be reasonable (if you watch the number of people queuing up for Air Chathams holding duty free bags) is domestic-international connections.


Very true, there's nothing to suggest WAG would differ from any other typical regional centre by way of international connections. Therefore would normally be nominal overall but potentially may look imbalanced due to the business market Opting for PMR due to facilities, pricing, frequency, flexibility etc.

Google maps suggest it's a 58-minute drive. Not a lot different to morning peak in AKL lol.

Not ideal, but if it's saving money in airfares vs 1/4 tank of gas, has a lounge, gives you a back up if your plans change, you get rewarded with Airpoints and maybe Gold/Elite you can understand why some do it but you can also see why there's a place for 3C
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 7:35 am

Wind causing some havoc in WLG today with majority of the afternoon international arrivals diverted to AKL. Notably VA171 and QF161 attempted landing before choosing to divert. QF171 from MEL made it in at 4pm with the other flights due to land between 2-3pm. Some domestic cancellations were in place also.

QF171 turned around to operate QF164 to SYD, effectively trying to minimise delays on that route. QF161 originally from SYD, since left AKL at 7.24pm to WLG and will turn around and operate QF172 to MEL

Would have been some fun landings today that's for sure!
 
jimmyah
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:53 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 10:40 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Wind causing some havoc in WLG today with majority of the afternoon international arrivals diverted to AKL. Notably VA171 and QF161 attempted landing before choosing to divert. QF171 from MEL made it in at 4pm with the other flights due to land between 2-3pm. Some domestic cancellations were in place also.

QF171 turned around to operate QF164 to SYD, effectively trying to minimise delays on that route. QF161 originally from SYD, since left AKL at 7.24pm to WLG and will turn around and operate QF172 to MEL

Would have been some fun landings today that's for sure!


Sounds air from BHE was coming in behind QF and managed to land, I would have hated being on that flight!
 
Motorhussy
Posts: 3572
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 11:34 am

A320’s still leaving WLG, clearing the backlog. Not sure whose the last one was.
come visit the south pacific
 
a7ala
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:27 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 11:57 am

Motorhussy wrote:
A320’s still leaving WLG, clearing the backlog. Not sure whose the last one was.


Looks like a couple of B787 flights operating akl-wlg-akl tomorrow as well to help clear the backlog
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 11:39 pm

jimmyah wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Wind causing some havoc in WLG today with majority of the afternoon international arrivals diverted to AKL. Notably VA171 and QF161 attempted landing before choosing to divert. QF171 from MEL made it in at 4pm with the other flights due to land between 2-3pm. Some domestic cancellations were in place also.

QF171 turned around to operate QF164 to SYD, effectively trying to minimise delays on that route. QF161 originally from SYD, since left AKL at 7.24pm to WLG and will turn around and operate QF172 to MEL

Would have been some fun landings today that's for sure!


Sounds air from BHE was coming in behind QF and managed to land, I would have hated being on that flight!


Yeah I wouldn't have enjoyed being on that flight either! Even on the 737 or 320 coming into WLG on a very gusty day throws some gut wrenching moments..
 
NZ321
Posts: 1061
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 31, 2019 2:24 pm

I am hearing on some websites behind paywalls (The Air Current) that Boeing have boosted the 787-9 and 787-10 mtow to 260 tonnes
Plane mad!
 
tealnz
Posts: 504
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 31, 2019 4:22 pm

Seems we finally have an explanation why NZ flipped from a “no way” to a “yes please!” on the 78J. It’s a kind of vindication for the the 78J sceptics. But ultimately a big win for Boeing. Most interesting thing is that Boeing kept it a deep secret that they were finding a way to deliver an hour of additional range on the supposedly maxed-out 787. At some point hopefully we’ll find out how they did it - and what it took to persuade the board they should invest in some re-engineering of the 787.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 31, 2019 8:56 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
IIRC with a recent US3 order the B788 is getting a lot of the B789 refinements backported into it. So the commonality should be improving hugely. If that then results in further improved range then maybe it will be a serious option.

NZ has been talking about a poss code 3 787-9 which might carry about the same (perhaps) as QF's which might be around 235 seats. This represents a heavier premium focus which may or may not be too much for a long thin route.

If by tweaking the 787-8 Boeing can get a decent range increase then the same 235 pax in a more "traditional" NZ mix could possibly be carried in a smaller, cheaper and lower trip cost frame than the -9. Maybe even some westbound freight. Sure, it will lack the higher number of premium seats of the Code 3 787-9 but it's far from established that NYC would need a strongly premium-heavy aircraft anyway.

If NZ is serious about future ports such as YYZ, GRU etc, then a small subfleet of an enhanced 788 may actually give better payload-range outcomes than the current 789. Would be keen to see some analysis as to what 788 weight increases might be possible (for example by using the 789 wing join) and what that might mean for its ULH capabilities.

All purely hypothetical, I know. But if NZ has requested the specific ability to take 788s amongst their optioned aircraft, you do have to ask "why would they do that?" Given that Boeing has said nothing so far about the tweaks to the -10 which have apparently been made to make that a/c acceptable to NZ, it would not surprise me if there are also moves behind the scenes to improve the 787-8 that NZ may have a close interest in.


It would certainly be interesting, a 788 that is an ULH beast with a reasonably realistic 788 configuration of say 27J 33W 40Y+ 130Y. Alhough how far will the 789 now fly particularly with the MTOW increase, and a code 3 configuration?
 
tealnz
Posts: 504
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 31, 2019 10:52 pm

Will NZ actually buy any 260t 789s? If they can do New York with the current fleet in a QF-style “Code 3” configuration (presumably those with Trent 1000-TENs) they might prefer to use their capital for the 78Js.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3173
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 31, 2019 11:38 pm

tealnz wrote:
Will NZ actually buy any 260t 789s? If they can do New York with the current fleet in a QF-style “Code 3” configuration (presumably those with Trent 1000-TENs) they might prefer to use their capital for the 78Js.


If they were to increase the chances of profit, then could be chance e.g the current 789 fleet is already pretty much allocated, so could expect an couple more for growth etc.

Or maybe an deal to swap out the couple of 789s that we’re tye Boeing prototype, assuming they will have an shortern lifespan and heavyer than the standard production models.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 3:46 am

Is it possible that the last 789 due this year could be in that config, with New York specially in mind. Seems like a no-brainer if it's possible at this stage. 6 tonnes more MTOW is a lot more range or a lot fewer seats blocked off westbound. What are we talking about - perhaps 120 miles per tonne? An extra 720 miles range?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
mrkerr7474
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Dec 23, 2009 7:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 6:42 am

Further issues today at WLG due to the weather with reported windsheer at 500ft above Evans Bay. Both international and domestic flights diverting. QF171 again from MEL attempted x2 landings before heading to CHC and JQ261 attempted landing twice before returning to AKL. NZ5370 CHC to WLG didn't even attempt to land, just bypassed and flew straight to HLZ. Some outbound flights were delayed over an hour also. Fun times these past couple of days in WLG.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:38 am

zkncj wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Will NZ actually buy any 260t 789s? If they can do New York with the current fleet in a QF-style “Code 3” configuration (presumably those with Trent 1000-TENs) they might prefer to use their capital for the 78Js.


If they were to increase the chances of profit, then could be chance e.g the current 789 fleet is already pretty much allocated, so could expect an couple more for growth etc.

Or maybe an deal to swap out the couple of 789s that we’re tye Boeing prototype, assuming they will have an shortern lifespan and heavyer than the standard production models.


It does depend on growth as to weather they buy anymore 789s, there is no long haul planes due from 2019-22, it’s what they do in between with a new cabin due in 2022 as to weather they take any frames with the old cabin only for it to be replaced within 1-2 years. Beyond 2022 still it depends, they may lease additional 789s or bring forward 78J deliveries if they need to.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 7:41 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Is it possible that the last 789 due this year could be in that config, with New York specially in mind. Seems like a no-brainer if it's possible at this stage. 6 tonnes more MTOW is a lot more range or a lot fewer seats blocked off westbound. What are we talking about - perhaps 120 miles per tonne? An extra 720 miles range?


Reconfigured 789s were mentioned in the recent investor day presentation, no timeline was given however and with a new cabin due in 2022 they may wait for then. I don’t personally think they will have 1 aircraft in an odd configuration unless they plan to reconfigure a few more.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1020
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:01 am

There so much talk and speculation on the 787 and what the future holds, -8, -9 and -10 and it all seems to focus on NYC and this extra MTOW....

Haven't we learnt anything, over the last year it was A350-900/1000 and the 777X with some 787 talk but ultimately dismissed due to range issues! Luxon said they can reach NYC with this aircraft then corrected himself and said this family of aircraft so it's clear they'll get there with the -9.

There's been no talk of the -8 and it seems people are talking of an order based on new routes only such as NYC/GRU but would be unwanted outside these unknown routes.

Let's face facts, the -10 is replacing the 772 and will have additional range.

Extra -9's will enter the fleet via the 12 options and NZ will have either a hard code 3 or (unlikely but potentially) a limited mask over code 2.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:39 am

NZ6 wrote:
There so much talk and speculation on the 787 and what the future holds, -8, -9 and -10 and it all seems to focus on NYC and this extra MTOW....

Haven't we learnt anything, over the last year it was A350-900/1000 and the 777X with some 787 talk but ultimately dismissed due to range issues! Luxon said they can reach NYC with this aircraft then corrected himself and said this family of aircraft so it's clear they'll get there with the -9.

There's been no talk of the -8 and it seems people are talking of an order based on new routes only such as NYC/GRU but would be unwanted outside these unknown routes.

Let's face facts, the -10 is replacing the 772 and will have additional range.

Extra -9's will enter the fleet via the 12 options and NZ will have either a hard code 3 or (unlikely but potentially) a limited mask over code 2.

I understand all that but I'm still struggling to understand why the possibility of -8s has been included in the option mix. Unless it's for something like a ULH beast. Can anyone suggest otherwise what might have been in mind? It cannot have happened by accident, surely.

But the MTOW increase for the -9: surely this extra 6t of payload or fuel would be of interest to a carrier operating at the extreme of the aircraft's capabilities?
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
dhcomet
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:51 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:49 am

mrkerr7474 wrote:
Further issues today at WLG due to the weather with reported windsheer at 500ft above Evans Bay. Both international and domestic flights diverting. QF171 again from MEL attempted x2 landings before heading to CHC and JQ261 attempted landing twice before returning to AKL. NZ5370 CHC to WLG didn't even attempt to land, just bypassed and flew straight to HLZ. Some outbound flights were delayed over an hour also. Fun times these past couple of days in WLG.



Why did NZ5370 divert to HLZ ? Wouldn't have returning to CHC been better ?
 
axio
Posts: 250
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:44 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 8:54 am

dhcomet wrote:
mrkerr7474 wrote:
Further issues today at WLG due to the weather with reported windsheer at 500ft above Evans Bay. Both international and domestic flights diverting. QF171 again from MEL attempted x2 landings before heading to CHC and JQ261 attempted landing twice before returning to AKL. NZ5370 CHC to WLG didn't even attempt to land, just bypassed and flew straight to HLZ. Some outbound flights were delayed over an hour also. Fun times these past couple of days in WLG.


Why did NZ5370 divert to HLZ ? Wouldn't have returning to CHC been better ?


Weather there was probably pretty sketchy too - certainly looked like it on rain radar at times during the day. Similarly for PMR (the usual alternate for WLG) which has been squally and miserable all day.
Time for a new viewing deck at AKL!
 
zkncj
Posts: 3173
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:01 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Unless it's for something like a ULH beast. Can anyone suggest otherwise what might have been in mind? It cannot have happened by accident, surely.
?



Thinking it’s simply just keeping the options open for the future, eg short-haul growth 5 years down the track might start needing something larger than the A321NEO.

Example: AKL-OOL/ADL/RAR etc would probably be an good fit for the 788 size.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:29 am

zkncj wrote:
Thinking it’s simply just keeping the options open for the future, eg short-haul growth 5 years down the track might start needing something larger than the A321NEO.

Example: AKL-OOL/ADL/RAR etc would probably be an good fit for the 788 size.

Hmm, not sure about that. A 250-seat WB is going to be much more expensive to operate than a 214-seat narrow body. Besides, RAR and ADL already have regular WBs. Albeit not daily in the case of ADL.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6807
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:50 am

zkncj wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Unless it's for something like a ULH beast. Can anyone suggest otherwise what might have been in mind? It cannot have happened by accident, surely.
?



Thinking it’s simply just keeping the options open for the future, eg short-haul growth 5 years down the track might start needing something larger than the A321NEO.

Example: AKL-OOL/ADL/RAR etc would probably be an good fit for the 788 size.


They won’t order a widebody specifically for short haul use, plenty of widebodies coming in that can do that in between long hauls. OOL will get 3 789 rotations over the school holidays as an additional service, and that’s the way it will be larger aircraft where required or additional frequency at peak times. Although most of the Asian flights bar PVG and second seasonal SIN service will depart mid late morning from NW, HKG/KIX/SIN/TPE/ICN/NRTx2.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat Jun 01, 2019 9:57 am

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