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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 8:37 am

AsiaTravel wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
AsiaTravel wrote:
We don't really know if it is for the 777X or 787s. CFO recently said the competition was between A350s and 787s.


We don’t really no? but the CFO said it would be the 787 or A359 I guess that rules out the 777X then? No?


Well there is nothing official for now so we don't really know.



Put it this way, the 77X has been ruled out.

Interesting Reuters wrote that article in Paris.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 8:47 am

The 777X was never a serious contender for a 77E replacement in my view. However, it will be interesting to see if NZ options some 778s as a potential 77W replacement.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 8:54 am

DavidByrne wrote:
The 777X was never a serious contender for a 77E replacement in my view. However, it will be interesting to see if NZ options some 778s as a potential 77W replacement.


After all originally the 8x 77E we're order with 2x 7E7's, which over the years has turned into 14x 789s....
 
RickNRoll
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 10:53 am

For a country with the population New Zealand the 787 makes perfect sense. They can work out the details of which models they want as the order progresses but the efficiency and lower costs of the 787 will be far more important for them than the capability of the 777X.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 10:59 am

For the rapid transit in Wellington to the airport several things have to happen. First, we need to start building something for the first phase which is the Station to the Hospital. Second, we need to elect councilers who will actually vote for the investment. It won't be cheap and there are a lot of people who think the solution is MORE ROADS! Though where you can stick the roads without spending even more to bash down homes I have no idea. Finally the second phase of rapid transit would have to be built from the Hospital to the Airport. If all goes according to desire we're still looking at 10+ years.

Want it faster? Then elect councilers carefully in the local body elections.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 11:36 am

RickNRoll wrote:
For a country with the population New Zealand the 787 makes perfect sense.

I don't know. I think there is a case for something bigger than a 787-9, as NZ has a chunky presence to quite a few slot-restricted ports, which I can't see it being able to simply expand at, through additional 787-9 frequencies. I'm thinking of HKG, PVG, HND, LAX and others. Sure, JVs can help with a few, but not all?

The 787-10 is there, but is its range/capacity sufficient for NZ's needs? Can it do LAX with a decent load? IIRC, the A350-1000 can carry more, for longer, compared to the 787-10 on those shorter, chunky routes? The downside, of course, is loss of fleet efficiency, and I guess that argument won out this time.

It will certainly be interesting to see if there is simply an order for 787-9s, and no 787-10s or 777-Xs.

Cheers,

C.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 11:41 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
... rapid transit in Wellington.

On a slightly related note, have heard a rumour that the Airport Flyer bus will be discontinued. The cost from the CBD is something like NZD 12, when you can often get an Uber for something like NZD 17-18, so it wouldn't surprise me.

Also - relating to Wellington - does anyone know what the deal is with Singapore Airlines? Are they going to be able to use anything other than a 772 in the near future? What is more likely - a 359 or a 787-10? Either would be awesome!

Cheers,

C.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 12:22 am

planemanofnz wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
... rapid transit in Wellington.

On a slightly related note, have heard a rumour that the Airport Flyer bus will be discontinued. The cost from the CBD is something like NZD 12, when you can often get an Uber for something like NZD 17-18, so it wouldn't surprise me.

Also - relating to Wellington - does anyone know what the deal is with Singapore Airlines? Are they going to be able to use anything other than a 772 in the near future? What is more likely - a 359 or a 787-10? Either would be awesome!

Cheers,

C.


They pulled the Airport Flyer from the Real Time Information and Snapper systems so I have no idea what their long term plan is.

As for Singapore, I'd put my money on the 359, my understanding is that the 78J is setup as a short-medium haul regional workhorse, not really for the sort of distance to MEL and then WLG. The big question is if they can squeeze enough performance out of the 359 and WLG to do WLG-SIN non stop. It should be physically doable, but the real sticking point is is it commercially feasible. I'm sure as hell hoping it is.
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 1:00 am

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
... rapid transit in Wellington.

On a slightly related note, have heard a rumour that the Airport Flyer bus will be discontinued. The cost from the CBD is something like NZD 12, when you can often get an Uber for something like NZD 17-18, so it wouldn't surprise me.

Also - relating to Wellington - does anyone know what the deal is with Singapore Airlines? Are they going to be able to use anything other than a 772 in the near future? What is more likely - a 359 or a 787-10? Either would be awesome!

Cheers,

C.


They pulled the Airport Flyer from the Real Time Information and Snapper systems so I have no idea what their long term plan is.

As for Singapore, I'd put my money on the 359, my understanding is that the 78J is setup as a short-medium haul regional workhorse, not really for the sort of distance to MEL and then WLG. The big question is if they can squeeze enough performance out of the 359 and WLG to do WLG-SIN non stop. It should be physically doable, but the real sticking point is is it commercially feasible. I'm sure as hell hoping it is.

MEL is a premium and dense capacity market for SQ, so unless WLG gets its own WLG - SIN service then either the A359 or 787-10 is an ideal aircraft. My money is also on the A359 to enable SQ to offer the same premium service MEL currently gets. SQ is wanting to increase its WLG service and the A359 is the ideal aircraft to offer an increase.
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With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
777ER
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 1:12 am

The last SQ 772 leaves the fleet in 10 months, so the WLG route announcement will need to be made in the next few months
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Flown: 1900D,S340,Q300,AT72-5/6,DC3,CR2/7,E145,E70/75/90,A319/20/21,A332/3,A359,A380,F100,B717,B733/4/8/9,B742/4,B752/3,B763,B772/3, B789
With: NZ,SJ,QF,JQ,EK,VA,AA,UA,DL,FL,AC,FJ,SQ,TG,PR
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 3:53 am

777ER wrote:
The last SQ 772 leaves the fleet in 10 months, so the WLG route announcement will need to be made in the next few months

Does it? This document - https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/ ... fy1819.pdf - has 1 777-200 and 1 777-200ER in the fleet at 31 March 2020. See also viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422943

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 4:06 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
777ER wrote:
The last SQ 772 leaves the fleet in 10 months, so the WLG route announcement will need to be made in the next few months

Does it? This document - https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/ ... fy1819.pdf - has 1 777-200 and 1 777-200ER in the fleet at 31 March 2020. See also viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422943

V/F


They couldn't operate the route with 1 aircraft.... it requires two as it cant turn on itself.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 8:58 am

a7ala wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
777ER wrote:
The last SQ 772 leaves the fleet in 10 months, so the WLG route announcement will need to be made in the next few months

Does it? This document - https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/ ... fy1819.pdf - has 1 777-200 and 1 777-200ER in the fleet at 31 March 2020. See also viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422943

V/F


They couldn't operate the route with 1 aircraft.... it requires two as it cant turn on itself.


Well it can, actually, if it's 3x weekly but not at any greater frequency and then there is the issue of mx. I suspect a clarification of eqp will be made soon, will be interesting. Cant see SQ being interested in keeping old config 772 on MEL. I suspect it will be regional A359. Australia already has this product.
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a7ala
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 9:56 am

NZ321 wrote:
a7ala wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Does it? This document - https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/ ... fy1819.pdf - has 1 777-200 and 1 777-200ER in the fleet at 31 March 2020. See also https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... &t=1422943

V/F


They couldn't operate the route with 1 aircraft.... it requires two as it cant turn on itself.


Well it can, actually, if it's 3x weekly but not at any greater frequency and then there is the issue of mx. I suspect a clarification of eqp will be made soon, will be interesting. Cant see SQ being interested in keeping old config 772 on MEL. I suspect it will be regional A359. Australia already has this product.


Its 4 a week 3 of which are on consecutive days so not without a reduction in capacity and change of days. And in any case they wouldn't operate one aircraft for a port. What happens when it goes tech as SQ did this afternoon in wlg?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 10:17 am

I’d say it will be a regional A359 aswell, more modest increase in seats than the 78X, maybe could allow additional frequency?

SQ are getting more long haul A359s later in the year, not sure I see a non stop to SIN but it would be pretty cool.
 
NZ1
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 11:23 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
tu2130 wrote:
What will be the 14ths 787s reg be I predict it ZK-NZT

-NZO has been skipped as it is allocated to a meat bomber in Queenstown.

-NZP has been skipped for fairly obvious historical reasons.

I would imagine we would get -NZR and -NZS before -NZT.

V/F


Correct. The next 787 will be registered ZK-NZR.
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aviationaware
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 11:56 am

planemanofnz wrote:
I don't know. I think there is a case for something bigger than a 787-9, as NZ has a chunky presence to quite a few slot-restricted ports, which I can't see it being able to simply expand at, through additional 787-9 frequencies. I'm thinking of HKG, PVG, HND, LAX and others. Sure, JVs can help with a few, but not all?


That's what Air New Zealand has 777-300ERs for. This tender was never for their replacement. This is for 777-200ER replacement, and how anyone would think that it would be even remotely plausible for Air New Zealand to replace 777-200ERs with 777Xs is totally beyond me. Doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Of course this order will be for 789s, that's not even up for discussion at this point.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 5:28 pm

Auckland airport has put out some more detail about its development plans:

https://corporate.aucklandairport.co.nz ... ture-build

The first big development is... more remote stands, this time to the northwest of Pier B.

Here’s the map from their press release (note the blue/red overlay appears to be off to the right a bit from where it should be)

Image

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 21, 2019 11:27 pm

aviationaware wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
I don't know. I think there is a case for something bigger than a 787-9, as NZ has a chunky presence to quite a few slot-restricted ports, which I can't see it being able to simply expand at, through additional 787-9 frequencies. I'm thinking of HKG, PVG, HND, LAX and others. Sure, JVs can help with a few, but not all?


That's what Air New Zealand has 777-300ERs for. This tender was never for their replacement. This is for 777-200ER replacement, and how anyone would think that it would be even remotely plausible for Air New Zealand to replace 777-200ERs with 777Xs is totally beyond me. Doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Of course this order will be for 789s, that's not even up for discussion at this point.


The 778 has range that could have been if interest for routes like NYC/GRU, IMO it’s to big for those which are more likely on a less dense 789 IMO.

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.

I’m not sure about 789s in this order, much more likely 78X I think, which will iMO be capable of LAX/SFO ex AKL by the time they consider it as a 77W replacement.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 1:22 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The 778 has range that could have been if interest for routes like NYC/GRU, IMO it’s to big for those which are more likely on a less dense 789 IMO.

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.

I’m not sure about 789s in this order, much more likely 78X I think, which will iMO be capable of LAX/SFO ex AKL by the time they consider it as a 77W replacement.

I don't expect the 787-10, a larger aircraft, will be part of this order. In my view, the 789 will be ordered this time, around the same size as the 77E, though there may be a "Code 3" lower density version included in the order for EWR and GRU. Though the 789 may still be sub-optimal for EWR, it allows operations there to commence sooner than waiting for the 778 and without the complications of an additional fleet type (A359). If the 789 proves itself on EWR in practice, then there may be no need in the long term for the 778, and the need for a larger aircraft to replace the 77W may be satisfied with the 787-10 if it by then has the legs for LAX/SFO. If the 789 proves to be less capable than desirable in service to EWR, then the 778 may well come into play a little down the line when the 77W replacement is being considered, with EWR partly in mind. Or, indeed, the A350-1000 for that same role. So even if the order this time is still for the 789, there remains the possibility of the 787-10, the 778 and the A350-1000 coming into the fleet in a few years later.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
tu2130
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 2:52 am

Really in to seeing the new widebodys I mean sorry if it short, I understand.
A350 is Not going to be one of the replacements they say Boeing will be the airline for the replacement planes my opinion is Air New Zealand is gonna order either the 78X or the 77X So in 2022-2024 we will see new larger widebodys in Auckland and the other hubs I only visit Auckland like every between if there's a concert or if we're visiting to get there it cost my family over $100 dollars for a amazing extraordinary road trip in a lifetime! Of 5 hours to Auckland!
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 3:04 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The 778 has range that could have been if interest for routes like NYC/GRU, IMO it’s to big for those which are more likely on a less dense 789 IMO.

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.

I’m not sure about 789s in this order, much more likely 78X I think, which will iMO be capable of LAX/SFO ex AKL by the time they consider it as a 77W replacement.

I don't expect the 787-10, a larger aircraft, will be part of this order. In my view, the 789 will be ordered this time, around the same size as the 77E, though there may be a "Code 3" lower density version included in the order for EWR and GRU. Though the 789 may still be sub-optimal for EWR, it allows operations there to commence sooner than waiting for the 778 and without the complications of an additional fleet type (A359). If the 789 proves itself on EWR in practice, then there may be no need in the long term for the 778, and the need for a larger aircraft to replace the 77W may be satisfied with the 787-10 if it by then has the legs for LAX/SFO. If the 789 proves to be less capable than desirable in service to EWR, then the 778 may well come into play a little down the line when the 77W replacement is being considered, with EWR partly in mind. Or, indeed, the A350-1000 for that same role. So even if the order this time is still for the 789, there remains the possibility of the 787-10, the 778 and the A350-1000 coming into the fleet in a few years later.



The 787-10 is maybe 10% larger and the 789 maybe 10% smaller than the 772,it will come down to operating costs, which is why initially used to Asia I’d see 787-10s doing SIN/HKG/NRT.
 
aviationaware
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 10:15 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.


Why? They're going to run the 789 and 77W together for years to come, there's really no reason not to believe that they couldn't go on running the 789 and 779 (or 8) after that. That would not be a step down in commonality.

I don't think this order will show in any way how the 77Ws will be replaced one day.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 11:37 am

aviationaware wrote:
I don't think this order will show in any way how the 77Ws will be replaced one day.


I disagree. If improvements to the 787-10 make it capable of LAX-AKL and SFO-AKL, then another aircraft type is unnecessary.

PA515
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 11:51 am

If the current chat about the 789 is correct (a bit of weight reduction, a minor MTOW increase, a high-premium version for NZ for ULH...) is correct and if that sets the parameters for 787-10 improvements then we're only talking about the -10 having legs to do full pax on LAX/SFO-AKL. NZ will always need some genuine heavy metal on these routes for cargo capacity. The -10 doesn't work as a 77W replacement until/unless Boeing invest in re-engineering wing/wingbox/gear. No hint of that at the moment. Even a neo version on the current airframe would be only half a solution – and that's presumably a decade away.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:02 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
I don't know. I think there is a case for something bigger than a 787-9, as NZ has a chunky presence to quite a few slot-restricted ports, which I can't see it being able to simply expand at, through additional 787-9 frequencies. I'm thinking of HKG, PVG, HND, LAX and others. Sure, JVs can help with a few, but not all?


That's what Air New Zealand has 777-300ERs for. This tender was never for their replacement. This is for 777-200ER replacement, and how anyone would think that it would be even remotely plausible for Air New Zealand to replace 777-200ERs with 777Xs is totally beyond me. Doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Of course this order will be for 789s, that's not even up for discussion at this point.


The 778 has range that could have been if interest for routes like NYC/GRU, IMO it’s to big for those which are more likely on a less dense 789 IMO.

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.

I’m not sure about 789s in this order, much more likely 78X I think, which will iMO be capable of LAX/SFO ex AKL by the time they consider it as a 77W replacement.


Lots of sense here, Yes 778 is too big for GRU, EZE and JFK. Yes 77W is not being replaced yet but I don't see that the 778 is totally out of the running to replace 77W. We will have to wait and see. If NZ go Boeing on this order, as is assumed by many, then there could still be a 778 order (to replace said 77W) or an A359/A35K order ahead, but it seems not in the 2-3 years. As far as I know, all the talk of an upgraded 78J is pure conjecture. Boeing have yet to release anything official about this AFAIK.
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NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 12:04 pm

tealnz wrote:
If the current chat about the 789 is correct (a bit of weight reduction, a minor MTOW increase, a high-premium version for NZ for ULH...) is correct and if that sets the parameters for 787-10 improvements then we're only talking about the -10 having legs to do full pax on LAX/SFO-AKL. NZ will always need some genuine heavy metal on these routes for cargo capacity. The -10 doesn't work as a 77W replacement until/unless Boeing invest in re-engineering wing/wingbox/gear. No hint of that at the moment. Even a neo version on the current airframe would be only half a solution – and that's presumably a decade away.


Agreed. It's gonna be a while, if ever, that we see those improvements. The only things that will impact that timeline will be customer demand, and whether its viable given the current design spec.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 22, 2019 9:34 pm

NZ321 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
aviationaware wrote:


That's what Air New Zealand has 777-300ERs for. This tender was never for their replacement. This is for 777-200ER replacement, and how anyone would think that it would be even remotely plausible for Air New Zealand to replace 777-200ERs with 777Xs is totally beyond me. Doesn't make even the slightest bit of sense. Of course this order will be for 789s, that's not even up for discussion at this point.


The 778 has range that could have been if interest for routes like NYC/GRU, IMO it’s to big for those which are more likely on a less dense 789 IMO.

This order will likely paint a picture of what will replace the 77W later in the decade however.

I’m not sure about 789s in this order, much more likely 78X I think, which will iMO be capable of LAX/SFO ex AKL by the time they consider it as a 77W replacement.


Lots of sense here, Yes 778 is too big for GRU, EZE and JFK. Yes 77W is not being replaced yet but I don't see that the 778 is totally out of the running to replace 77W. We will have to wait and see. If NZ go Boeing on this order, as is assumed by many, then there could still be a 778 order (to replace said 77W) or an A359/A35K order ahead, but it seems not in the 2-3 years. As far as I know, all the talk of an upgraded 78J is pure conjecture. Boeing have yet to release anything official about this AFAIK.


A former NZ CEO Called the 77L a flying fuel tank, while under a different CEO now I’m not sure they will be convinced by the 778 although it hasn’t flown yet it only has orders from the ME 3 of which EK might well be the only ones to take them, QF in thinking now may well go A350ULR for Oroject sunrise, so who else would order the 778? I do hunk it will form the next 777F though so it will be built.

The 779 is to big while expected to be efficient, and the A350 for mine was always an outsider given it’s an entirely new type, the 787 can do what NZ needs and it will continue to improve.
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 1:42 am

I'd agree with the general sentiment that the 777X wouldn't make much sense for 772 replacement. However it could stand a chance for 77W replacement.

The reason A350-900 for 777-200ER replacement makes sense is through setting up for the later replacement of 777-300ER with the A350-1000. If NZ want essentially an updated replica of exactly what the 772 and 77W are capable of, then the two-step A350 orders would make sense; however, as many have pointed out, this isn't a straight "replace with an aircraft of same capacity", but a question of "what does NZ want the next big widebody type to do in the long run", so it's entirely possible we may see more 789 being ordered, possibly with a different configuration, for the purpose of achieving NZ's long term vision.

The downside though will be that the fleet split will be quite uneven - 15x 777 (not counting leased ones) and 14x 787 form two separate sizeable fleets for which two pools of crew (I don't think NZ does cross-crewing of 777 and 787, at least for pilots?) and maintenance resources can be reasonably maintained; 22x 787 sort of leaves whatever replaces the 77W as a rather small fleet of something different. (I'm also in the camp that thinks the 787-10 lacks the payload-range to really do the NZ missions, so the 77W replacement would either be 777X or A350.) Whether 7-8 airframes (of 777X/A350) is a large enough fleet for sufficient crew and maintenance resources would then be a valid question - as would the lack of redundancy in case of another 787 issue. Whereas 14x 787 and 15ish A350 (-900 for 772 and -1000 for 77W) maintains an even fleet split.

I am of the opinion (and have been for some time) that the capacity and capability of the 777-200ER is a gap in Boeing's offerings, and although we have seen the world is moving towards a smaller aircraft like the 787-9, perhaps one of the reasons the A350 has taken off is the lack of a direct Boeing equivalent. I'm also wondering how much of the 777X's seat-mile efficiency improvements is driven by the increased seat count of a larger airframe with denser configuration?
 
tu2130
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 2:10 am

Trying to add an image about ZK-OJO is gonna have it's delivery flight soon.
It said it was seen in 17 May 2019 I also saw ZK-OJN In Onur Air livery with some Black to represent probably the previous airline it was with? (Air New Zealand)
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 2:13 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
. (I'm also in the camp that thinks the 787-10 lacks the payload-range to really do the NZ missions, so the 77W replacement would either be 777X or A350.) ?


Why does it need to be a 77W sized aircraft?

You're buying a different type for LAX & SFO now, that's it. While NZ2 continues to LHR from LAX, if NZ loses its share on the LAX-LHR sector NZ will drop it. NZ also doesn't really need a 77W on that sector either.

The 77W also goes to IAH and a few other places adhoc in peak but this is more about equipment utilisation over it being the best aircraft for that market.

The 77W is 10 years away at least, OKS is only 5 years old. Will we have a 787-10ER or improved MTOW at this time?
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 2:19 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
777ER wrote:
The last SQ 772 leaves the fleet in 10 months, so the WLG route announcement will need to be made in the next few months

Does it? This document - https://www.singaporeair.com/saar5/pdf/ ... fy1819.pdf - has 1 777-200 and 1 777-200ER in the fleet at 31 March 2020. See also viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1422943

V/F

That note at the bottom says the +1 is from reinstating a 777-200 "to support fleet requirements due to grounding issues" - I presume 787 related? I wonder if that 1 777-200 remaining might be "to support fleet requirements" rather than to operate a single service, because the plan calls for -7 (i.e. all 7 of the 777-200 from March 2019 to be removed from service). In any case, as already pointed out, the current schedule of departing SIN at 1945 local time on days 1456, and arriving back in SIN at 2240 local time on days 2567 would not be compatible with a single-airframe operation.

It's still loaded in the SQ booking system as a 777-200 up to next April (on the current schedule, too), while the fleet development plan calls for all but one 777-200 to be retired by end of March, so I assume an equipment announcement is to come in the not-too-distant future.
 
DavidJ08
Posts: 160
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 2:34 am

NZ6 wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
. (I'm also in the camp that thinks the 787-10 lacks the payload-range to really do the NZ missions, so the 77W replacement would either be 777X or A350.) ?


Why does it need to be a 77W sized aircraft?

You're buying a different type for LAX & SFO now, that's it. While NZ2 continues to LHR from LAX, if NZ loses its share on the LAX-LHR sector NZ will drop it. NZ also doesn't really need a 77W on that sector either.

The 77W also goes to IAH and a few other places adhoc in peak but this is more about equipment utilisation over it being the best aircraft for that market.

The 77W is 10 years away at least, OKS is only 5 years old. Will we have a 787-10ER or improved MTOW at this time?

Good point - I guess I have been operating on the assumption that the 77W is satisfactory for the missions it gets deployed on (while starting to acknowledge that an exact replica of the 772 may not be what NZ wants for the future), so perhaps I'm better to question whether the 77W will be fit-for-purpose in the future too!

I guess the big ongoing question is "does LAX/SFO/LHR have the demand/payload to justify a 77W-sized aircraft" - and will they continue to do so in the somewhat-distant future (that the 77W replacement will be serving). I assume they will continue to be slot-restricted so more frequency will be difficult to accomplish, although I guess the IAH/ORD flights and the proposed NYC flights will divide/dilute some of that LAX/SFO demand while growing the overall North American market.

I don't know about a 787-10ER - I feel like the 787-10 is already pushing the bounds of the airframe and the engine technology, although 10 years is a long time, so maybe? (Will this be a case of the 777-300 base model vs the later-developed 777-300ER, I wonder?)

Next question to speculate: will a type to offer an AKL-NYC (I assume EWR) service be part of the decision for the 772/77W replacement (which would push towards some ULR equipment like the A359ULR or 777-8), or will that be a separate acquisition?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6881
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 2:51 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
DavidJ08 wrote:
. (I'm also in the camp that thinks the 787-10 lacks the payload-range to really do the NZ missions, so the 77W replacement would either be 777X or A350.) ?


Why does it need to be a 77W sized aircraft?

You're buying a different type for LAX & SFO now, that's it. While NZ2 continues to LHR from LAX, if NZ loses its share on the LAX-LHR sector NZ will drop it. NZ also doesn't really need a 77W on that sector either.

The 77W also goes to IAH and a few other places adhoc in peak but this is more about equipment utilisation over it being the best aircraft for that market.

The 77W is 10 years away at least, OKS is only 5 years old. Will we have a 787-10ER or improved MTOW at this time?

Good point - I guess I have been operating on the assumption that the 77W is satisfactory for the missions it gets deployed on (while starting to acknowledge that an exact replica of the 772 may not be what NZ wants for the future), so perhaps I'm better to question whether the 77W will be fit-for-purpose in the future too!

I guess the big ongoing question is "does LAX/SFO/LHR have the demand/payload to justify a 77W-sized aircraft" - and will they continue to do so in the somewhat-distant future (that the 77W replacement will be serving). I assume they will continue to be slot-restricted so more frequency will be difficult to accomplish, although I guess the IAH/ORD flights and the proposed NYC flights will divide/dilute some of that LAX/SFO demand while growing the overall North American market.

I don't know about a 787-10ER - I feel like the 787-10 is already pushing the bounds of the airframe and the engine technology, although 10 years is a long time, so maybe? (Will this be a case of the 777-300 base model vs the later-developed 777-300ER, I wonder?)

Next question to speculate: will a type to offer an AKL-NYC (I assume EWR) service be part of the decision for the 772/77W replacement (which would push towards some ULR equipment like the A359ULR or 777-8), or will that be a separate acquisition?


NZ had 747s for range and CASN back in the day like everyone, and frequency wasn’t as important, no where near as important, many routes were 1-2 weekly 747s in the 80s.

The 744 was great while fuel was cheap and everything was funneled through LAX, and the 77W was really the only replacement, or most suitable replacement on the market, the A346 wasn’t and sales showed, NZ could have gone for a slightly more premium 772 aswell but took the 77W as it offers floor space to still fit 244Y seats, NZ going forward long term will likely IMO reduce seats in all classes while offering more services to other ports.

I doubt they will get 778 or A350 for ULH, the 789 will do most of what they want it to and outweigh an additional type in the fleet.
 
DavidJ08
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 4:36 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The 744 was great while fuel was cheap and everything was funneled through LAX, and the 77W was really the only replacement, or most suitable replacement on the market, the A346 wasn’t and sales showed, NZ could have gone for a slightly more premium 772 aswell but took the 77W as it offers floor space to still fit 244Y seats, NZ going forward long term will likely IMO reduce seats in all classes while offering more services to other ports.

I doubt they will get 778 or A350 for ULH, the 789 will do most of what they want it to and outweigh an additional type in the fleet.

Interesting, will that mean an all-789 fleet, then? Or is there still possibily for some 787-10(possibly ER/HGW) to be introduced in future?

Another pertinent question, assuming they go for more 787, will they continue to be RR-powered, or will NZ consider GE?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 6881
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 5:00 am

DavidJ08 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
The 744 was great while fuel was cheap and everything was funneled through LAX, and the 77W was really the only replacement, or most suitable replacement on the market, the A346 wasn’t and sales showed, NZ could have gone for a slightly more premium 772 aswell but took the 77W as it offers floor space to still fit 244Y seats, NZ going forward long term will likely IMO reduce seats in all classes while offering more services to other ports.

I doubt they will get 778 or A350 for ULH, the 789 will do most of what they want it to and outweigh an additional type in the fleet.

Interesting, will that mean an all-789 fleet, then? Or is there still possibily for some 787-10(possibly ER/HGW) to be introduced in future?

Another pertinent question, assuming they go for more 787, will they continue to be RR-powered, or will NZ consider GE?


787-10 definitely will be part of the fleet imo. I can’t see how Boeing won’t do an ER on the 10, no matter how much work it needs. I think NZ will get 10s now however for Asia.

Surely GE on 787-10, not sure about more 789s.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 340
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 5:14 am

PER-LHR is further than AKL-EWR so we know a 789 can do the distance. Question is what type of load NZ needs to make it viable.

Is there a case for a more premium configured 789 for NZ ?

Project Sunrise may dilute NZ loads due to diluting connection traffic advantage.
 
dhcomet
Posts: 5
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 5:20 am

I see ATR 72 ZK-MCB is still getting around. Any inside info on when this bird will go in its partial livery?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 5:28 am

NTLDaz wrote:
PER-LHR is further than AKL-EWR so we know a 789 can do the distance. Question is what type of load NZ needs to make it viable.

Is there a case for a more premium configured 789 for NZ ?

Project Sunrise may dilute NZ loads due to diluting connection traffic advantage.


Wind on NYC-AKL is stronger.

I’d be surprised if NZ don’t do a more premium 789.

Project sunrise will do little to harm NZ, growing market good product. NZ will hold their own.
 
tu2130
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 9:10 am

ZK-MCB is still active but I think it will export out of Airline prob in Q3?
Air New Zealand. Proud to fly.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 11:09 am

NTLDaz wrote:
PER-LHR is further than AKL-EWR so we know a 789 can do the distance. Question is what type of load NZ needs to make it viable.

Is there a case for a more premium configured 789 for NZ ?

Project Sunrise may dilute NZ loads due to diluting connection traffic advantage.

QF also has more premium traffic so can have a lower density layout. Also there is less freight requirement for PER/LHR due to multiple other options between Oz and the UK (there aren’t so many between AKL and EWR). Basically if Boeing could offer a slight thrust bump and an extra 10t of MTOW (to be used mostly for fuel) then NZ would have a good aircraft for EWR (a 789ER if you will).
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 12:30 pm

We haven't so far heard any solid rumours of anything more than a 1% MTOW increase for the 789.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 12:51 pm

tealnz wrote:
We haven't so far heard any solid rumours of anything more than a 1% MTOW increase for the 789.

Yeah I’m not saying they have, just saying if they did then NZ would love it.
59 types. 41 countries. 24 airlines.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 6:16 pm

Found this 21 May 2019 comment on another forum by Steve Biddle, who appears to have a reliable contact in Air NZ management.

Everything the airline is looking at now is about cost cutting and growing revenue. There are some incredibly tough times ahead in the industry, with many airlines already feeling the pinch.


Presume this relates to the price of oil and economic forecasts.

Steve Biddle is the author of the TravelTalk blog which six months ago mentioned the possibility of Air NZ getting GE powered 787-10s.
https://traveltalk.nz/news-opinion/are- ... ng-787-10/

We could have the 787-10 answer on Monday.

PA515
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 9:58 pm

The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 10:44 pm

zkeoj wrote:
The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?

The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 11:22 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ had 747s for range and CASN back in the day like everyone, and frequency wasn’t as important, no where near as important, many routes were 1-2 weekly 747s in the 80s.

And compare NZ's mid 90's fleet to mid now, 767's and 747's, the design and strategy of that fleets vs 772 and 77W then 789s... Highlights why airlines don't or won't replace like for like as their network changes/grows and aircraft technology changes.

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ going forward long term will likely IMO reduce seats in all classes while offering more services to other ports.

Put simply, this is the shortest but most accurate way of summarising what's been happening and will likely continue.

ZK-NBT wrote:
I doubt they will get 778 or A350 for ULH, the 789 will do most of what they want it to and outweigh an additional type in the fleet.

The 778 is massive, I think we all agree it's not needed into South America and I'm confident most of us agree the capacity is too much for NYC. Which leaves the 778 as being seen as an option only because it will have the legs to comfortably do these missions while still uplifting a 772 size load i.e no need for a light code 3 789?
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 23, 2019 11:29 pm

NTLDaz wrote:
PER-LHR is further than AKL-EWR so we know a 789 can do the distance. Question is what type of load NZ needs to make it viable.

Is there a case for a more premium configured 789 for NZ ?

Project Sunrise may dilute NZ loads due to diluting connection traffic advantage.


Well. QF have proven their LOPA makes travelling over that distance viable with this aircraft. So there's your starting point. Work backwards and forwards from there overlapping NZ's market data and analysis on demand/yield.

I realise project sunrise is also about connecting East Coast USA as much as it is connecting SYD-LHR. However, where these flights succeed is with high yield and premium traffic. Those prepared to pay for the convenience of the ULR direct connection. Therefore NZ won't get into too much of a price war with QF on NYC-SYD and NYC-AKL. QF will have their market while NZ will appeal to those coming to NZ only or as well, Star Alliance loyal pax and those who prefer the airline. It's different to the competition on say, LAX-AKL/SYD were there an excess of capacity which the carriers are desperate to fill.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 12:16 am

PA515 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?

The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515


Definitely Monday according to the NZ Herald.

The engine maker that has won the Air NZ deal will also be in town on Monday.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12234014

PA515
 
Mr AirNZ
Posts: 913
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2002 10:24 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 24, 2019 12:21 am

PA515 wrote:
zkeoj wrote:
The Boeing Communications Manager OZ/NZ will be in Auckland early next week. A sign?

The Paris Air Show 17-23 June 2019 was probably the intended date, but the Reuters story has messed that up.

PA515

An investor presentation is scheduled for Monday at 1.30pm and pre-dated the Reuters announcement by almost a week. This isn't a rush job, this has been planned in advance..
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334588
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