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vhebb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 11:37 pm

JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?
 
Whatsaptudo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 11:47 pm

Is it Seoul? All I can find is South Korea, with a reference to Jeju Air.

Edit: found a reference.
Last edited by Whatsaptudo on Fri May 03, 2019 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 02, 2019 11:52 pm

VKJ has gone to HKG for further maintenance work before return to service, or so I'm told.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:52 am

vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Here is Jetstar's news release https://newsroom.jetstar.com/jetstar-se ... uth-korea/

Flights commence 8 December

JQ49 OOL 1320 - 2200 ICN 788 357
JQ50 ICN 2330 - 0945+1 OOL 788 357
NSW based avgeek
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:02 am

vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Interesting indeed - could we call it creative expansion? I couldn’t have seen OOL-ICN coming, but can’t fault the logic of it, especially with the JeJu codeshare in place also. I think JQ should make every effort to own OOL over VA - internationally and domestically. Where else could they add?
 
HM7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:06 am

Isn’t VH-OEB supposed to be gone already?
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 2:18 am

Been reported elsewhere that OOL-ICN is at the expense of MEL-SIN.
 
hoons90
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 2:42 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Here is Jetstar's news release https://newsroom.jetstar.com/jetstar-se ... uth-korea/

Flights commence 8 December

JQ49 OOL 1320 - 2200 ICN 788 357
JQ50 ICN 2330 - 0945+1 OOL 788 357


I would have expected this flight to be seasonal (since Korea-Australia traffic in general tends to be seasonal), but since there's no mention of that I am guessing that it's year round?
The biggest mistake made by most human beings: Listening to only half, understanding just a quarter and telling double.
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 2:45 am

HM7 wrote:
Isn’t VH-OEB supposed to be gone already?


Yes, but she has had a brief reprieve due to both VH-VKJ and VH-EBP being out of action.
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myki
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 2:51 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Been reported elsewhere that OOL-ICN is at the expense of MEL-SIN.

I checked dates in Feb and Mar, and no more JQ MEL-SIN.

It is offering 1-stop via DPS or DRW only.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 4:07 am

Virgin's new CEO has put the skids on another of John Borghetti's follies, this time the lie-flat transcon Boeing 737 business class seats. At this rate I expect John Thomas to be hired back next week!

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 4:13 am

Tags for the ICN flights from SYD and MEL at least for the first few weeks

Fri/Sun from SYD
JQ11 SYD 0850 OOL 0910 57
JQ50 OOL 1115 SYD 1345 61
Albeit the JQ11 tag also suggests the NRT flight which departs 1030

Wed from Melbourne
JQ49 MEL 1045 OOL 1150 3
JQ50 OOL 1115 MEL 1430 4
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 4:19 am

moa999 wrote:
Tags for the ICN flights from SYD and MEL at least for the first few weeks

Fri/Sun from SYD
JQ11 SYD 0850 OOL 0910 57
JQ50 OOL 1115 SYD 1345 61
Albeit the JQ11 tag also suggests the NRT flight which departs 1030

Wed from Melbourne
JQ49 MEL 1045 OOL 1150 3
JQ50 OOL 1115 MEL 1430 4


More chance for QFF Platinums to book the SYD-OOL and MEL-OOL legs and stuff their noses into the QF First Lounge trough?
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 5:19 am

Huh, so Qantas group is aware that Seoul exists.
 
DeltaB717
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 5:24 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Virgin's new CEO has put the skids on another of John Borghetti's follies, this time the lie-flat transcon Boeing 737 business class seats. At this rate I expect John Thomas to be hired back next week!

https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero


There's no 'VA said this' or 'Scurrah said that' in this article, which leads me to believe that AusBT has (somewhat lazily) landed at the obvious conclusion the "all-new 737 business class" won't happen until at least July 2021 - i.e. that it is indeed to be introduced with the now delayed MAX.

dredgy wrote:
Huh, so Qantas group is aware that Seoul exists.


Yeah, who'd've thought, right!
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 5:54 am

DeltaB717 wrote:
https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero
There's no 'VA said this' or 'Scurrah said that' in this article, which leads me to believe that AusBT has (somewhat lazily) landed at the obvious conclusion the "all-new 737 business class" won't happen until at least July 2021 - i.e. that it is indeed to be introduced with the now delayed MAX.


I can't see anywhere where AusBT draws such a conclusion, all they have said is that the transcon "Perth Product" which JB announced in middle of 2017 is no longer on the front burner.

Also, this line here - "Australian Business Traveller understands that Scurrah, barely five weeks into the job, has launched a broader review of the airline's domestic offering and filed away plans for the new Boeing 737 business class" - is what media usually say when they have something 'on background' but can't be quoted, according to my partner who is a journalist. She says it's like a form of 'code'. I can understand why VA wouldn't want to come out and say anything outright on all this.
 
jupiter2
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 6:00 am

dredgy wrote:
Huh, so Qantas group is aware that Seoul exists.


QF have previously served Seoul and have code shared with OZ for years.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 9:26 am

vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Wow, didn't see ICN coming, but I am pleasantly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how much SYD/MEL (with the large Korean populations) connecting traffic JQ will be able to generate on the route via OOL
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:01 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Wow, didn't see ICN coming, but I am pleasantly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how much SYD/MEL (with the large Korean populations) connecting traffic JQ will be able to generate on the route via OOL

MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right
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getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:12 am

dredgy wrote:
Huh, so Qantas group is aware that Seoul exists.


As someone pointed out, they’ve code shared on OZ for years. It’s also a block code share not a free sale code share.

Further to this they’ve recently started code sharing with CX/KA to Seoul and Busan via HKG.
I'm that bad type.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:39 am

KE in BNE will be concerned- they are already being impacted by CZ/MU and their yields have taken quite a hit. Their European connection traffic is down too from years ago, but I believe they are getting some YVR pax.
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 10:50 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
vhebb wrote:
JQ to announce today a new Dreamliner route, 3x weekly Gold Coast to Seoul from December.

Any ideas whats being cut back to allow this to happen?


Wow, didn't see ICN coming, but I am pleasantly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how much SYD/MEL (with the large Korean populations) connecting traffic JQ will be able to generate on the route via OOL

MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right


Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?
NSW based avgeek
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:28 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:

Wow, didn't see ICN coming, but I am pleasantly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how much SYD/MEL (with the large Korean populations) connecting traffic JQ will be able to generate on the route via OOL

MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right


Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?

SYD doesn't get two a380's daily year round because of the population. It because OZ want to compete with KE but can't and is failing that's why they're losing so much money. SYD-ICN is over served .
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:46 am

JQ321 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right


Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... &t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?

SYD doesn't get two a380's daily year round because of the population. It because OZ want to compete with KE but can't and is failing that's why they're losing so much money. SYD-ICN is over served .


That’s what I said the A380s are only in the summer months. SYD-ICN is possibly over-served. But it’s the only city in Australia with a large Korean population which helps support the route. Maintaining two daily year round is probably right but yes two daily A380s in the summer may be too much.
NSW based avgeek
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 11:51 am

SeaEagle8 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:

Wow, didn't see ICN coming, but I am pleasantly surprised.

Will be interesting to see how much SYD/MEL (with the large Korean populations) connecting traffic JQ will be able to generate on the route via OOL

MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right


Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?


There is absolutely no disputing that Sydney has the largest Korean population, and I never suggested otherwise.

Looking at country of birth is slightly misleading as Melbourne has a larger population of international students. Brisbane has a larger population of people of Korean descent overall.
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:00 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
MEL does not have a large Korean population, infact the Korean population in Brisbane is quite a bit larger and presumably some of them could be tempted to drive to OOL if the price is right


Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?


There is absolutely no disputing that Sydney has the largest Korean population, and I never suggested otherwise.

Looking at country of birth is slightly misleading as Melbourne has a larger population of international students. Brisbane has a larger population of people of Korean descent overall.


And I never suggested you did say that. I was just quoting the statistical numbers. Without further statistical evidence though to say that Brisbane “is quite a bit larger” than Melbourne is incorrect. Neither city would be considered to have a large population of Korean descent. Whether they are students or not, there are still more Koreans in Melbourne according to the census.
NSW based avgeek
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:09 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?


QF
SQ
EK
EY
QR
BA
TG
KE
CA (Seasonal)
CZ (Seasonal)
OZ** (A380's have F but not bookable)
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
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SeaEagle8
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:11 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?


QF
SQ
EK
EY
QR
BA
TG
KE
CA (Seasonal)
CZ (Seasonal)
OZ** (A380's have F but not bookable)


Sensational. So SYD does still have quite a few flights offering F.
Asiana sells their F as J?
Maybe that’s why TG keeps the 744 on BKK-SYD for the F.
NSW based avgeek
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 12:24 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
Asiana sells their F as J?
.


Nup they leave them empty according to this:

https://pointsfromthepacific.boardingar ... -december/
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c933103
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 03, 2019 1:10 pm

https://bbs.feeyo.com/thread-6030330-1-1.html
HU ending XIY-SYD, right when the route reach its third year, which is probably when the subsidy end.
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mh124
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 3:32 am

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/em ... 881188121z

EK returning second daily to PER seasonally over chrissie.
 
Boof
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 9:18 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
DeltaB717 wrote:
https://www.ausbt.com.au/virgin-austral ... ource=hero
There's no 'VA said this' or 'Scurrah said that' in this article, which leads me to believe that AusBT has (somewhat lazily) landed at the obvious conclusion the "all-new 737 business class" won't happen until at least July 2021 - i.e. that it is indeed to be introduced with the now delayed MAX.


I can't see anywhere where AusBT draws such a conclusion, all they have said is that the transcon "Perth Product" which JB announced in middle of 2017 is no longer on the front burner.

Also, this line here - "Australian Business Traveller understands that Scurrah, barely five weeks into the job, has launched a broader review of the airline's domestic offering and filed away plans for the new Boeing 737 business class" - is what media usually say when they have something 'on background' but can't be quoted, according to my partner who is a journalist. She says it's like a form of 'code'. I can understand why VA wouldn't want to come out and say anything outright on all this.


Journalists are clever, no question about that. I have a friend who was working on a technology project with VA and that was halted as well. The word is the new CEO has ground everything to a halt unless it involves existing BAU carriage of pax. Basically if the project ain’t launched, it is stopped pending review. They are going through all the cost lines in the books...

My friend said that staff from the project they had going were moved to other BAU areas of the business as a result.

I’d expect some Int’l flying changes next, I don’t know anything but my gut feel is that will be the next “enhancement”.
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 10:01 am

Any International Changes/Cuts from Scurrah would likely be earmarked to start by Q4 2019 (October), my gut prediction is that the NZ services and any unsubsidised Pacific Island services will be the next "on review" by the start of Q3 (July) for a Q4 start.

But at the same time Scurrah is also beholden to the multiple shareholders, so if some shareholder(s) "demand" that VA keep certain routes to feed their own network (E.g AKL for HNA group airlines), its likely you'll see him backflip at the behest of those shareholders.

The long-haul TransPacific JV with Delta runs until 2022 or 2023 (can't recall), so at this point in time the AU-LAX routes seems to be the only safe int'l routes. Whereas the HX JV into HKG really depends on HX's financial health (if HX goes into liquidation, it's probably unlikely that HKG will survive on VA metal beyond said hypothetical HX liquidation).
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 04, 2019 1:28 pm

I can't see how VA avoids major changes to the short haul international network. A bonfire of banknotes would probably save money compared to the atrocious performance of markets like POM and HIR, the dumpster fire that is Trans Tasman and their inability to gain any traction in the NZ market, and their high cost base being uncompetitive to DPS without the yield premium that QF generates to cover their high costs.

LAX is breakeven at worse and probably (slightly) profitable and HKG is still maturing and a strategically important market. The short haul network though needs to be gutted. In addition to cutting loss making routes it would free up enough frames to retire the remaining A320s at Tiger, which would be a much better use of those resources.
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777Jet
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 2:41 am

For those interested the 737Max will be discussed on 60minutes tonight on CH9.

"60 Minutes - Liz Hayes investigates the disaster of Boeing's 737 MAX jetliner: why two supposedly state-of-the-art and safe planes crashed killing 346 people; why pilots now fear flying the 737 MAX; and whether Boeing could have averted the catastrophes."

Should be available to watch online later.

SeaEagle8 wrote:
SYDSpotter wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?


QF
SQ
EK
EY
QR
BA
TG
KE
CA (Seasonal)
CZ (Seasonal)
OZ** (A380's have F but not bookable)



Maybe that’s why TG keeps the 744 on BKK-SYD for the F.


It sure is.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
Qantas737
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 4:51 am

Virgin Australia A330-200 VH-XFG operated a charter to Townsville this morning in support of the Groovin The Moo music festival. The aircraft operated:

MEL-TSV VA9001

TSV-MEL VA9900

I suspect a follow up charter will take place tomorrow (Monday) to to pick up the band members and their gear again following the festival.

Whilst the RAAF KC-30s are a regular visitor to Townsville, it's always nice to see some widebody metal in commercial colours once in a while too.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 6:15 am

SYDSpotter wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:
Asiana sells their F as J?
.


Nup they leave them empty according to this:

https://pointsfromthepacific.boardingar ... -december/


Seems like a constrictive decision on their part - even sold as J and allocated to top tiers they'd be making money you would think....
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 6:51 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
I can't see how VA avoids major changes to the short haul international network. A bonfire of banknotes would probably save money compared to the atrocious performance of markets like POM and HIR, the dumpster fire that is Trans Tasman and their inability to gain any traction in the NZ market, and their high cost base being uncompetitive to DPS without the yield premium that QF generates to cover their high costs.

LAX is breakeven at worse and probably (slightly) profitable and HKG is still maturing and a strategically important market. The short haul network though needs to be gutted. In addition to cutting loss making routes it would free up enough frames to retire the remaining A320s at Tiger, which would be a much better use of those resources.


Honiara is a profitable route from what I know, is basically the main supply line to the Solomon Islands. If they're not profitable off of cargo alone, I'm assuming there's a subsidy.
Likewise I'm fairly sure POM is profitable, though there is a lot of competition now.

VA's operations are profitable overall and they have a good cash position. If they were to trim loss-making routes, I doubt much of the short haul international route will be cut (Apia, Dunedin & Queenstown maybe).
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2679
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 7:02 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
I can't see how VA avoids major changes to the short haul international network. A bonfire of banknotes would probably save money compared to the atrocious performance of markets like POM and HIR, the dumpster fire that is Trans Tasman and their inability to gain any traction in the NZ market, and their high cost base being uncompetitive to DPS without the yield premium that QF generates to cover their high costs.

LAX is breakeven at worse and probably (slightly) profitable and HKG is still maturing and a strategically important market. The short haul network though needs to be gutted. In addition to cutting loss making routes it would free up enough frames to retire the remaining A320s at Tiger, which would be a much better use of those resources.


You may be right but the HIR and POM routes aren't major frequencies and I'm curious how you know the Tasman is a "dumpster fire" and they "aren't gaining any traction" there. Yes they're behind QF a d NZ but... they started in, what, November? Sure it may not work out, but wow, give it some time... and evidence.

Losses have always been identified as stemming from international well before going solo on the Tasman, so are we sure LAX routes are even breaking even? I'd have thought that these are the least important to their overall network and that them and HKG would be the first to go, likely saving a fleet type too. If they are to go. I, like most/everyone, am not privy to their financials.

New CEOs always conduct a review so Scurrah's moves aren't the least bit surprising. Some or all of these projects may resume. Or maybe none will. It would be disappointing if they ditched the transcon specialist biz product though. I really liked that idea.
 
Obzerva
Posts: 422
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 7:19 am

dredgy wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I can't see how VA avoids major changes to the short haul international network. A bonfire of banknotes would probably save money compared to the atrocious performance of markets like POM and HIR, the dumpster fire that is Trans Tasman and their inability to gain any traction in the NZ market, and their high cost base being uncompetitive to DPS without the yield premium that QF generates to cover their high costs.

LAX is breakeven at worse and probably (slightly) profitable and HKG is still maturing and a strategically important market. The short haul network though needs to be gutted. In addition to cutting loss making routes it would free up enough frames to retire the remaining A320s at Tiger, which would be a much better use of those resources.


Honiara is a profitable route from what I know, is basically the main supply line to the Solomon Islands. If they're not profitable off of cargo alone, I'm assuming there's a subsidy.
Likewise I'm fairly sure POM is profitable, though there is a lot of competition now.

VA's operations are profitable overall and they have a good cash position. If they were to trim loss-making routes, I doubt much of the short haul international route will be cut (Apia, Dunedin & Queenstown maybe).


Just re POM, given that that's only recently been outsourced to QQ I think VA have already taken steps there to address profitability on the route - still staying in the game but realising that a 737 was too much for them to operate on it.
I'd be surprised if that route gets cut so quickly.
 
dredgy
Posts: 430
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 7:32 am

Obzerva wrote:
Just re POM, given that that's only recently been outsourced to QQ I think VA have already taken steps there to address profitability on the route - still staying in the game but realising that a 737 was too much for them to operate on it.
I'd be surprised if that route gets cut so quickly.


I’m not too sure on POM, it’s a weird market. I’ve seen some invoices for freight that goes up there with them, and it’s a workable amount to put it mildly, but passenger fares are usually reasonable to cheap.

I don’t know how much I’d read into the QQ switch, because they’re putting Alliance on a lot of routes. They swapped all of their departures out of ROK to Alliance metal a few months back and I’ve now switched to Qantas because of that. I’ve seen the odd VA plane in ROK lately so maybe things are back to normal. It suggests to me an aircraft shortage, or maybe their cost structure is just so bad they have to leave their short haul routes to someone else to make money, no idea.
 
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SCFlyer
Posts: 324
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 7:59 am

aerokiwi wrote:
Losses have always been identified as stemming from international well before going solo on the Tasman, so are we sure LAX routes are even breaking even? I'd have thought that these are the least important to their overall network and that them and HKG would be the first to go, likely saving a fleet type too. If they are to go. I, like most/everyone, am not privy to their financials.

New CEOs always conduct a review so Scurrah's moves aren't the least bit surprising. Some or all of these projects may resume. Or maybe none will. It would be disappointing if they ditched the transcon specialist biz product though. I really liked that idea.


LAX was started back in the Brett Godfrey era, back when the company was the Virgin Blue Group and the company overall was rolling around in profit left, right and centre for most of BG's tenure.

If LAX wasn't that important, BG wouldn't not signed the first JV agreement with DL and VX. The DL JV was subsequently renewed under JB, whilst VX was subsequently taken over by AS (a QF codeshare partner).

HKG was started by the demands of the HNA group (a 20% shareholder of VA) in a JV partnership with the (now financially troubled) HK based subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines. In addition, the AU-HK bilaterals on the HK end is full, thus one of the reasons why VA is operating the services and not HX. Although I do agree HKG's future does depend on the financial health of HX.

Although BG ran the company a lot better than JB, BG did make some mistakes (e.g putting the 77Ws on NAN and HKT). I wouldn't be surprised if Scurrah did the same cuts on the international side that JB did (JB back when he first started at VA cut HKT, JNB and NAN from the 77Ws (and concentrated the 77W fleet on LAX in partnership with DL and 3x weekly AUH on behalf of EY) for the early part of his tenure).
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2679
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 8:30 am

SCFlyer wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
Losses have always been identified as stemming from international well before going solo on the Tasman, so are we sure LAX routes are even breaking even? I'd have thought that these are the least important to their overall network and that them and HKG would be the first to go, likely saving a fleet type too. If they are to go. I, like most/everyone, am not privy to their financials.

New CEOs always conduct a review so Scurrah's moves aren't the least bit surprising. Some or all of these projects may resume. Or maybe none will. It would be disappointing if they ditched the transcon specialist biz product though. I really liked that idea.


LAX was started back in the Brett Godfrey era, back when the company was the Virgin Blue Group and the company overall was rolling around in profit left, right and centre for most of BG's tenure.

If LAX wasn't that important, BG wouldn't not signed the first JV agreement with DL and VX. The DL JV was subsequently renewed under JB, whilst VX was subsequently taken over by AS (a QF codeshare partner).

HKG was started by the demands of the HNA group (a 20% shareholder of VA) in a JV partnership with the (now financially troubled) HK based subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines. In addition, the AU-HK bilaterals on the HK end is full, thus one of the reasons why VA is operating the services and not HX. Although I do agree HKG's future does depend on the financial health of HX.

Although BG ran the company a lot better than JB, BG did make some mistakes (e.g putting the 77Ws on NAN and HKT). I wouldn't be surprised if Scurrah did the same cuts on the international side that JB did (JB back when he first started at VA cut HKT, JNB and NAN from the 77Ws (and concentrated the 77W fleet on LAX in partnership with DL and 3x weekly AUH on behalf of EY) for the early part of his tenure).


From memory they've always lost money on international and LA has been scaled back in the past. Unless Tasman-with-NZ and the Pacific Island flights have been the money losers, suspicions must surely fall on LAX as the big drain, though I do recall a report a year or two back that they'd broken even for that year, so I'm just guestimating too. I'd have thought the DL partnership might actually represent an exit strategy in terms of VA metal, if not VA codeshares. Not inconceivable that DL enters Melbourne.

And I'd love to see proof that VA folded to "demands by the HNA Group" to start HKG. Ridiculous. Did they see a partnership opportunity on a heavily travelled route dominated by Oneworld carriers at a time qhen they were reducing A330 domestic ops? Yeah, probably.

But to suggest a new minority shareholder held a gun to VA, and every other shareholder just shrugged, is absurd. Seems to be another Anet myth that morphs into legend on this forum re VA. Kinda like the VA-deathwatch obsession over on the New Zealand thread. Afterall, look what happened when NZ tried to get VA to direct all international feed to their AKL hub - the other shareholders baulked.

Good point re QQ and POM for VA. Probably a last go to see if it helps. Again, they'd likely give it a good 9-12 months before making a decision, unless it really is dire.
 
SYDSpotter
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Joined: Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 9:02 am

777Jet wrote:
For those interested the 737Max will be discussed on 60minutes tonight on CH9.

"60 Minutes - Liz Hayes investigates the disaster of Boeing's 737 MAX jetliner: why two supposedly state-of-the-art and safe planes crashed killing 346 people; why pilots now fear flying the 737 MAX; and whether Boeing could have averted the catastrophes."

Should be available to watch online later.
.


Might give this a miss, the adverts for this seem overly sensationalised.
319_320_321_332_333_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
getluv
Posts: 543
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 12:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 11:32 am

aerokiwi wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
Losses have always been identified as stemming from international well before going solo on the Tasman, so are we sure LAX routes are even breaking even? I'd have thought that these are the least important to their overall network and that them and HKG would be the first to go, likely saving a fleet type too. If they are to go. I, like most/everyone, am not privy to their financials.

New CEOs always conduct a review so Scurrah's moves aren't the least bit surprising. Some or all of these projects may resume. Or maybe none will. It would be disappointing if they ditched the transcon specialist biz product though. I really liked that idea.


LAX was started back in the Brett Godfrey era, back when the company was the Virgin Blue Group and the company overall was rolling around in profit left, right and centre for most of BG's tenure.

If LAX wasn't that important, BG wouldn't not signed the first JV agreement with DL and VX. The DL JV was subsequently renewed under JB, whilst VX was subsequently taken over by AS (a QF codeshare partner).

HKG was started by the demands of the HNA group (a 20% shareholder of VA) in a JV partnership with the (now financially troubled) HK based subsidiary Hong Kong Airlines. In addition, the AU-HK bilaterals on the HK end is full, thus one of the reasons why VA is operating the services and not HX. Although I do agree HKG's future does depend on the financial health of HX.

Although BG ran the company a lot better than JB, BG did make some mistakes (e.g putting the 77Ws on NAN and HKT). I wouldn't be surprised if Scurrah did the same cuts on the international side that JB did (JB back when he first started at VA cut HKT, JNB and NAN from the 77Ws (and concentrated the 77W fleet on LAX in partnership with DL and 3x weekly AUH on behalf of EY) for the early part of his tenure).


From memory they've always lost money on international and LA has been scaled back in the past. Unless Tasman-with-NZ and the Pacific Island flights have been the money losers, suspicions must surely fall on LAX as the big drain, though I do recall a report a year or two back that they'd broken even for that year, so I'm just guestimating too. I'd have thought the DL partnership might actually represent an exit strategy in terms of VA metal, if not VA codeshares. Not inconceivable that DL enters Melbourne.

And I'd love to see proof that VA folded to "demands by the HNA Group" to start HKG. Ridiculous. Did they see a partnership opportunity on a heavily travelled route dominated by Oneworld carriers at a time qhen they were reducing A330 domestic ops? Yeah, probably.

But to suggest a new minority shareholder held a gun to VA, and every other shareholder just shrugged, is absurd. Seems to be another Anet myth that morphs into legend on this forum re VA. Kinda like the VA-deathwatch obsession over on the New Zealand thread. Afterall, look what happened when NZ tried to get VA to direct all international feed to their AKL hub - the other shareholders baulked.

Good point re QQ and POM for VA. Probably a last go to see if it helps. Again, they'd likely give it a good 9-12 months before making a decision, unless it really is dire.


I don't think HNA held a gun to VA's head but JB really needed that cash at the time.

I think NZ really wanted VA to be the B6/AS of Australia and leverage of its owners/codeshares - NZ, SQ and EY. Unfortunately, SQ and EY had less to gain by such an arrangement.
I'm that bad type.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 12:17 pm

getluv wrote:
I don't think HNA held a gun to VA's head but JB really needed that cash at the time.

I think NZ really wanted VA to be the B6/AS of Australia and leverage of its owners/codeshares - NZ, SQ and EY. Unfortunately, SQ and EY had less to gain by such an arrangement.


NZ/Luxon demanding that VA "give up all international" and feed everything to NZ was never going to fly in a boardroom that couldn't get along. Branson still had a minority stake and he would've been joined SQ and EY in telling NZ/Luxon to take a hike.

Luxon should've really concentrated on VA's financial performance in his attempt to oust JB at the board meeting instead of letting his ego get in the way by demanding VA "give up all" international and feed everything into his carrier. That was bound to have the rest of the boardroom offside with them siding with "the other ego" because of that call.
 
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777Jet
Posts: 6977
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 12:19 pm

SYDSpotter wrote:
777Jet wrote:
For those interested the 737Max will be discussed on 60minutes tonight on CH9.

"60 Minutes - Liz Hayes investigates the disaster of Boeing's 737 MAX jetliner: why two supposedly state-of-the-art and safe planes crashed killing 346 people; why pilots now fear flying the 737 MAX; and whether Boeing could have averted the catastrophes."

Should be available to watch online later.
.


Might give this a miss, the adverts for this seem overly sensationalised.


I quite enjoyed it. Probably a much better watch for an aviation enthusiast than a cooking show regardless.
DC10-10/30,MD82/88/90, 717,727,732/3/4/5/7/8/9ER,742/4,752/3,763/ER,772/E/L/3/W,788/9, 306,320,321,332/3,346,359,388
 
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thekorean
Posts: 1777
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sun May 05, 2019 11:14 pm

SeaEagle8 wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
SeaEagle8 wrote:

Not true according to the 2016 Census.
https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.a ... t/6203_036
Melbourne had 14,081 born in South Korea and Brisbane only 12,195. Sydney is the largest by far with almost 50,000.
That's part of the reason SYD-ICN is served twice daily year round and during summer those are both A380s.

Also, if the flights do originate in SYD or Melbourne those passengers wouldn't be considered connecting, they would be through passengers.
Similar to MEL-PER-LHR, the MEL passengers aren't connecting in PER.

With KE dropping F on many of its routes, SYD may only see F when these routes are flown with the A380 in the summer months.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... &t=1421615

Which brings me to another question, which Australian international routes still have F class? Obviously the QF A380s but does anyone have a decent list?

SYD doesn't get two a380's daily year round because of the population. It because OZ want to compete with KE but can't and is failing that's why they're losing so much money. SYD-ICN is over served .


That’s what I said the A380s are only in the summer months. SYD-ICN is possibly over-served. But it’s the only city in Australia with a large Korean population which helps support the route. Maintaining two daily year round is probably right but yes two daily A380s in the summer may be too much.

So no QF at ICN anytime soon? That sucks. Guess I will have to wait until OZ goes belly up.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 12:58 am

VA POM: if the cargo revenue (loose loaded on a 737) was really that good I'd be surprised they handed it over to a QQ F100.
VA HIR: what subsidy? The Solomons govt. Is busy propping up their own airline.
I thought VA's cash drain was DPS, POM, HIR.
 
dredgy
Posts: 430
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:13 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 06, 2019 1:57 am

eta unknown wrote:
VA POM: if the cargo revenue (loose loaded on a 737) was really that good I'd be surprised they handed it over to a QQ F100.
VA HIR: what subsidy? The Solomons govt. Is busy propping up their own airline.
I thought VA's cash drain was DPS, POM, HIR.


VA gives QQ to a lot of their most lucrative routes (regional QLD and WA) so I wouldn’t read too much into the switch, is probably just where they don’t think anyone will mind the switch in product.
There’s no subsidy that I’m aware of, but I’ve heard the route turns a profit. My information could be completely out of date though.

If VAs cash drain was Honiara or POM (infrequent, short-mid haul flights on small aircraft) that would indicate serious problems: between the destinations they only operate 6 weekly flights and that’s just not enough to have a major effect even if every flight was completely empty. Also, what cash drain? Virgin’s operational profit was $110m last year and their cash position is strong. Their losses had nothing to do with a cash drain.
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