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jetfuel
Posts: 1077
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 10:27 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 11:51 pm

redroo wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
Boof wrote:

The Virgin brand and license fees aren’t cheap either from memory but not sure if they still pay them and if they do how much VA currently pay Virgin group for this.


I've always been curious about the royalty costs on what to me is a name that doesn't resonate well with anyone born in the last 25 years. VA could rebrand and I don't think the "Virgin" name would be greatly missed. It's just not a brand that I am highly attached too. If anything it feels bit tawdry and past its use by date. Keen to hear what others think.


I will say it again, cause it’s worth bringing out of the cupboard - virgin (as a brand) is like your drunk auntie cracking onto your teenage mates at the family bbq. She has seen better days and all the red lipstick, flair, romance is a bit sad and cringe worthy.

If they rebranded tomorrow. It would not be missed. They had a strong brand 20 years ago but they don’t have one now. The brand hasn’t really changed.




I am a VAH shareholder. Virgin Australia has paid more money in royalty fees to Richard Branson than TOTAL profits since inception
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 14, 2019 11:58 pm

^^
Probably puts forward one reason towards the case for them to take VAH private. The problem is a bickering shareholder board with all larger shareholders having their competing interests. Making that option least likely

One of the other options, is the "very very least likely" option of one of the larger airlines e.g SQ or DL launching a takeover bid.
Problem is that there are no parties willing to do so on the back of VA's poor financial results over the past few years, leaving VAH in the doldrums for the short to medium term, unless if one of the financially problematic stakeholders (HNA or EY) suddenly goes into liquidation
 
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jetfuel
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 12:08 am

SCFlyer wrote:
^^
Probably puts forward one reason towards the case for them to take VAH private. The problem is a bickering shareholder board with all larger shareholders having their competing interests. Making that option least likely


I have some concerns that JB may have signed up to another 10 year term of Virgin franchise fees. IMO this is an expense that VAH cannot afford and may be their undoing.
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Obzerva
Posts: 396
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 2:09 am

jetfuel wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
^^
Probably puts forward one reason towards the case for them to take VAH private. The problem is a bickering shareholder board with all larger shareholders having their competing interests. Making that option least likely


I have some concerns that JB may have signed up to another 10 year term of Virgin franchise fees. IMO this is an expense that VAH cannot afford and may be their undoing.


What would potential brands be to replace Virgin with?

The idea I had would simply rebranding to "VA", it's quick, punchy, no need to change the airline designator, and can easily make a logo work with just two letters.

S7 has made it work and that doesn't roll off the tongue anywhere near as easily as saying VA
(it may do in Russian maybe though?)
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 2:41 am

Obzerva wrote:
jetfuel wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
^^
Probably puts forward one reason towards the case for them to take VAH private. The problem is a bickering shareholder board with all larger shareholders having their competing interests. Making that option least likely


I have some concerns that JB may have signed up to another 10 year term of Virgin franchise fees. IMO this is an expense that VAH cannot afford and may be their undoing.


What would potential brands be to replace Virgin with?

In my opinion you don't give up nearly 2 decades of brand recognition and goodwill to save what is relatively small bucks.

In many respects Qantas is a silly modern day name but will never change for obvious reasons. Virgin ( as in Virgin Records etc ) may no longer have much cache but as an airline it certainly does.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 3:17 am

Neither "Tiger" nor "Virgin" are brands worth paying royalties for. They have almost zero resonance in the Australian market in 2019.

Singtel came to that conclusion a while ago re Virgin Mobile, which was once a strong brand. It's no different in aviation.

The fact that VAH pays more money for brand licensing than it has ever returned as profit is just one example of all that is wrong with this group.

If I was the CEO and had a carte blanche from the board, I'd close down Tiger, sell the 77Ws and stop flying trans pacific. Harmonise the fleet, there really is no reason why an airline this size has both Airbus and Boeing in its fleet. Focus purely on domestic with a few routes to Asia that can be sustained with a partner. Rebrand everything and get rid of licensed brands. Bring the service level back to the Virgin Blue days and slot it somewhere in between JQ and QF in the market.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 3:26 am

aryonoco wrote:
The fact that VAH pays more money for brand licensing than it has ever returned as profit is just one example of all that is wrong with this group.


I recall that point from I think 2015 when JB reportedly extended the deal (not sure for how long). From memory they wee paying $80-100m a year as a %ge of revenue (again this may have changed) - which is a not insignificant amount given VAHs earnings.

Equally agree the Tiger brand has limited value given the prior reputation in Australia and it's former Singapore parent is changing its branding to Scoot.
 
An767
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 3:51 am

Why rebrand VA ,do they really work once done ? it will still have that stigma attached no matter what you call it. It's the old saying " you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig"
Need a total culture change at the airline, staff need to realise the public pay for there wages, and looking pretty does not cut it , if you can't provide decent service.
Had the misfortune to fly with them last month Bne -Syd , service was a joke and attitude from cabin crew was average to say the least. work trip but paid my own fare back to Bne on QF myself .
AN767
If its got wings put me on it. If it floats on water take it away
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 4:06 am

moa999 wrote:
aryonoco wrote:
The fact that VAH pays more money for brand licensing than it has ever returned as profit is just one example of all that is wrong with this group.


I recall that point from I think 2015 when JB reportedly extended the deal (not sure for how long). From memory they wee paying $80-100m a year as a %ge of revenue (again this may have changed) - which is a not insignificant amount given VAHs earnings.

Equally agree the Tiger brand has limited value given the prior reputation in Australia and it's former Singapore parent is changing its branding to Scoot.

You're out by a factor of 10. In 10 years, Virgin Australia paid Virgin Group AUD103M in license fees. (Source: AFR and Bloomberg)
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 5:07 am

aryonoco wrote:
Neither "Tiger" nor "Virgin" are brands worth paying royalties for. They have almost zero resonance in the Australian market in 2019.

Singtel came to that conclusion a while ago re Virgin Mobile, which was once a strong brand. It's no different in aviation.

The fact that VAH pays more money for brand licensing than it has ever returned as profit is just one example of all that is wrong with this group.

If I was the CEO and had a carte blanche from the board, I'd close down Tiger, sell the 77Ws and stop flying trans pacific. Harmonise the fleet, there really is no reason why an airline this size has both Airbus and Boeing in its fleet. Focus purely on domestic with a few routes to Asia that can be sustained with a partner. Rebrand everything and get rid of licensed brands. Bring the service level back to the Virgin Blue days and slot it somewhere in between JQ and QF in the market.


Not sure sitting between QF and JQ would be the answer, it was cited as a reason for going more corporate because between them QF and JQ had them in a pincer and DJ (as it was) was stuck in the middle, they saw it as either having to go up or down, so they went up trying to grab more of the corporate dollar.
QF still has an arrogant attitude thinking they own 100% of the corporate market, and Australia needs competition in that space.

I think the US flying can stay, but the 77W is the wrong aircraft, it's just too big, they need a single widebody solution for Asia and the US.

What VA needs is a couple of more partners intenationally to support any new routes, but the makeup of the board doesn't make it easy as they all want VA's traveller base on their aircraft.
There is a few partners they could add that wouldn't compete.
GA, NH and KE for example.

They managed to add AC, but the key point there is that DL isn't on the board so wouldn't have had a say to prevent that one.
(and no I don't think joining an alliance is the answer, as that's just more cost, and the alliances are pretty much stagnant now anyways)
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 5:18 am

Not sure sitting between QF and JQ would be the answer, it was cited as a reason for going more corporate because between them QF and JQ had them in a pincer and DJ (as it was) was stuck in the middle, they saw it as either having to go up or down, so they went up trying to grab more of the corporate dollar.
QF still has an arrogant attitude thinking they own 100% of the corporate market, and Australia needs competition in that space.

You are correct. DJ was squeezed and couldn't move either way. Brett Godfrey thought that being a "new-world" carrier in the middle was a thing; unfortunately it wasn't in Australia though much of his "buy everything extra" has become standard now in countries like USA.

I think the US flying can stay, but the 77W is the wrong aircraft, it's just too big, they need a single widebody solution for Asia and the US

You are correct now but when the 777s were ordered 12 years ago, the only available trans-Pacific aircraft were the 77L, 77W, A345, A346 and 744. The 77W had the best seat costs of this selection by a long way. Were you doing it now, you'd only be looking at A359 or 789.

What VA needs is a couple of more partners intenationally to support any new routes, but the makeup of the board doesn't make it easy as they all want VA's traveller base on their aircraft.
There is a few partners they could add that wouldn't compete.
GA, NH and KE for example

It would all depend on the deal you could do with potential partners. I agree that partners predominantly from Skyteam or outside an alliance are the most likely candidates.

no I don't think joining an alliance is the answer, as that's just more cost, and the alliances are pretty much stagnant now anyways

I tend to agree. Even members of alliances are "marrying-out" now such as SQ and GA, CX and NZ, QF and KL etc.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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rtav
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 12:22 pm

Singapore Airlines is adding another A350-900R to the Perth Service, specifically SQ223/214 is switched from the B777-200.

From 01JUL19
SQ223 SIN0930 - 1440PER A359 D
SQ214 PER1710 - 2235SIN A359 D

PER-SIN A/C ops from 01JUL
SQ224/225: A330-300
SQ226/213: A350-900
SQ214/223: A350-900
SQ216/215: B787-10
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 1:01 pm

redroo wrote:
zkncj wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm not sure how many job cuts VA can make, although they could outsource the check-in function again. As for Virgin Village in BNE, that place already has high turnover and staff are paid less than QF.


Well they could fully automate check-in and boarding at mayor ports - although think VA probably would lack the capex required to setup any change for this (or of course would have to end up leasing/renting equipment from an airport company).

They could try get CASA to allow them to operate the 738s with an the more global 1-50 ratio rather than 1-36 ratio - but then again would probably be an likely expensive option to try get approved.


There’s always way more ground crew around gates than at QF gates. QF crew also do boarding at gate. Don’t think virgin do? Always fat to cut.


Exactly. Knowing how JB has operated VA there would be a lot of resources/spending to get VA competitive against QF. There is plenty of room for outsourcing if VA want to go down that path as well.

CraigAnderson wrote:
AFR link to rumoured Velocity sell-off story is paywalled, alternative at https://www.ausbt.com.au/is-virgin-aust ... ource=hero, apparently VFF could be worth around $2bn, I can see how that would be tempting for Scurrah even though Virgin only owns 65% of VFF now it's still a massive 'quick fix'. The thing is, what would Virgin do with that much money to ensure they don't just burn through it like JB kept doing each time he was bailed out?


My guess is Scurrah has found some big problems with VA's financial position that perhaps JB may have been hiding. Scurrah will clear the books and get VA in better shape and exit straight after.
I'm that bad type.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 1:30 pm

Oh yep, the bi-monthly dump-all-over-Virgin is back. Wow that's not boring. And we have a few new ridiculous suppositions-becomming-fact that we can add to the list.

One person states categorically without evidence that Virgin pays more to Richard Branson to license the name than they've ever made in profits (I bet you're gonna come back with "under the VA moniker" etc blah, ignoring DJ), while another "remembers" it is an obviously absurd $100 odd million or so per year, and whamo, we have another Anet "fact". When it's more like $10 million pa, which isn't chump change but hardly a big deal given the likely brand value it carries, despite the moans on here.

And now we have hints of Scurrah finding hidden financial bombs buried deep down so a listed company can hide them. When in fact he's just saved about $250 million in deferred capex from later MAX8 deliveries, from scuttlebutt I've heard on the figures. But let's just go ahead anyway and turn that into an Anet fact now too.

Meanwhile I flew economy X on a 2 year old 737 from Sydney to Melbourne this morning, had a super quick boarding, great on board service, thoroughly enjoyed the IFE and had complimentary internet the whole way. Sure the apple was a bit on the stingy side but at that hour I don't care as I had a snack in the lounge anyway. But come to Anet and it's like the airline is on the brink of collapse with subterfuge, conspiracy and extravagance akimbo. Amazing.
 
aryonoco
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 15, 2019 9:40 pm

tullamarine wrote:

You are correct now but when the 777s were ordered 12 years ago, the only available trans-Pacific aircraft were the 77L, 77W, A345, A346 and 744. The 77W had the best seat costs of this selection by a long way. Were you doing it now, you'd only be looking at A359 or 789.


Neither of which are cheap.

The A330neo is also an option now. The new 251t version of A338 should easily be able to do MEL/SYD-LAX. The market doesn't seem to like the type much, but combined with a fleet of A339 for Asia, could be just what VA needs.

This is all hypothetical of course. I don't know where VA would get the capital to get an all new widebody fleet.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:03 am

There's an interesting article on VA and VFF in today's Sydney Morning Herald- can't post link but go to the business pages and you'll see it.

We should consider ourselves lucky to have 2 quality airlines like QF and VA.

There's a lot of bashing of JB here but never forget he only served at the pleasure of the Board who never sacked him.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:26 am

I've got no doubt some or all of it will be sold.

Affinity by its nature is not a long term holder of things, and I can't see VAH buying back Affinity's stake, so the question simply becomes if VAH sells along side it.

I simply question the $ value put on it.
A few years ago Aeroplan would have been a potential bidder, but the case study of what happened there is a lesson to any external investor.

Plus the risk that VAH itself falls over, which would torpedo the value of Velocity.

--

As for the buyout of VAH by the airline shareholders... It's very difficult I think unless you properly separate the International arm given air rights, and I suspect the financials aren't pretty.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:39 am

No doubt Affinity will be looking at selling. VAH on the other hand however.

I have no doubt that SQ will be looking on with interest considering one of the reasons (if not the reason) they still have their VA stake is to maintain access to the FF base. SQ selling off their 20% stake in VA in trade off for a stake in VFF would allow SQ to maintain access to the VA FF base without the risks of investing in VA directly, even in the extreme (very less likely) case of VA filing liquidation.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:43 am

I suspect the financials aren't pretty.

Golly VAH must have terrible auditors since there was nothing in their accounts expressing doubts that it is not a going concern. The boffins here on Anet reading tea leaves seemingly know more about VA's finances than they do. :banghead:
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:43 am

In the interests of balancing things up, should we gather thoughts of what VA has done right?

For mine:
737 MAX deferral - a good move
Changing the 737 MAX fleet mix to have a few more of the larger size, also a smart move.
Removing the Embraers - kind of torn on this one, from a passenger experience they were great, but clearly they had to be full, and at decent fare levels to break even.
Getting all the brands under a single brand, rather than Pacific Blue, V Australia etc
Adding partners, even Silkair (which came onboard after Singapore Airlines) increased the reach in to Asia. Jumping on South African as soon as their partnership split from QF.
Full access to the former Etihad lounges in MEL/SYD for all VA international flights
PER airport - QF may be at constant loggerheads with PER but VA is sitting pretty with access to international oncarriage (would be better if EY was still in PER though).

That's a few off the top of my head.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 12:55 am

tullamarine wrote:
Golly VAH must have terrible auditors since there :

Nice selective quoting.

My statement simply referred to the financials of the VAIntl business, which aren't presently disclosed, despite the different shareholding (as it has to be >50% Australian owned)
(No different to QANs Jetstar affiliates)
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 1:13 am

Obzerva wrote:
In the interests of balancing things up, should we gather thoughts of what VA has done right?

For mine:
737 MAX deferral - a good move
Changing the 737 MAX fleet mix to have a few more of the larger size, also a smart move.
Removing the Embraers - kind of torn on this one, from a passenger experience they were great, but clearly they had to be full, and at decent fare levels to break even.
Getting all the brands under a single brand, rather than Pacific Blue, V Australia etc
Adding partners, even Silkair (which came onboard after Singapore Airlines) increased the reach in to Asia. Jumping on South African as soon as their partnership split from QF.
Full access to the former Etihad lounges in MEL/SYD for all VA international flights
PER airport - QF may be at constant loggerheads with PER but VA is sitting pretty with access to international oncarriage (would be better if EY was still in PER though).

That's a few off the top of my head.


Axing the leisure destinations from the 77W (e.g HKT, NAN). It's way too much plane and too premium heavy for low yielding tourist destination routes. 77Ws to HKT/NAN was a Godfrey decision which was quickly reversed when JB first arrived.
Pulling out of JNB when it's clear they don't have ETOPS approval for two-engine operation on the shorter route to JNB.
Partnerships with AC and extending the HA partnership to cover Trans-Tasman flights.
Streamlining the domestic fleet (e.g removal of Embraers, ATR-500s, and almost all of the 73G fleet).
Finally streamlining the international lounge access, including (as mentioned) getting access to the former EY lounge in SYD/MEL.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 1:27 am

NTLDaz wrote:
There's a lot of bashing of JB here but never forget he only served at the pleasure of the Board who never sacked him.

Maybe because the board hired JB and didn't want to admit their mistake?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 3:06 am

This is all hypothetical of course. I don't know where VA would get the capital to get an all new widebody fleet.

Most likely any new widebody fleet would be leased so would be funded as opex rather than upfront capex.

The used widebody market is pretty moribund right now so it is likely VA will run their 777s for quite a while yet as most of them are owned and selling them would be very hard. QF are in the same situation with their A380s.

There are several inherent limitations to auditing.

There are but what you seem to be suggesting would seem to be the greatest dereliction of auditor responsibilities since Enron. If you have evidence put it up, otherwise you are just blowing smoke.

Where there's smoke, there's fire. While most business news is superficial, AFR are at least generally very accurate on rumours.

It's worth pointing out:
Market value of VA - $1.5B
Apparent Book value of VFF - $2B

More smoke from you. It is common for an asset to have more value once separated than whilst included in a conglomerated business. To explan, the market capitalisation of Qantas is around $8B; various estimates say Jetstar is worth around $3B and the FF business is around the same. That doesn't mean that without Jetstar and the FF business that Qantas would only be worth $2B. It is called unlocking value. The same will apply if the Velocity business is spun off.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 4:54 am

VA Cancelling Perth-Geraldton Flights as of July 21st.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/vi ... 881201409z
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 5:59 am

waoz1 wrote:
VA Cancelling Perth-Geraldton Flights as of July 21st.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/vi ... 881201409z


This was to be expected, loads have been poor, aircraft could be used elsewhere for better returns. I would think this may give REX the opportunity to start PER-GET
Forum Moderator
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 6:07 am

qf789 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
VA Cancelling Perth-Geraldton Flights as of July 21st.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/vi ... 881201409z


This was to be expected, loads have been poor, aircraft could be used elsewhere for better returns. I would think this may give REX the opportunity to start PER-GET


QF are generally stronger on the route. Im not sure i can see REX competing with QF on this route, perhaps if they can offer a lunchtime flight.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 6:22 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
VA Cancelling Perth-Geraldton Flights as of July 21st.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/vi ... 881201409z


This was to be expected, loads have been poor, aircraft could be used elsewhere for better returns. I would think this may give REX the opportunity to start PER-GET


QF are generally stronger on the route. Im not sure i can see REX competing with QF on this route, perhaps if they can offer a lunchtime flight.

400kms seems a bit short to be making good money using a jet. It sounds more like a route more suited to SF3 or Dash 8.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 6:46 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
VA Cancelling Perth-Geraldton Flights as of July 21st.

https://thewest.com.au/news/aviation/vi ... 881201409z


This was to be expected, loads have been poor, aircraft could be used elsewhere for better returns. I would think this may give REX the opportunity to start PER-GET


QF are generally stronger on the route. Im not sure i can see REX competing with QF on this route, perhaps if they can offer a lunchtime flight.


With smaller aircraft they'll be able to offer lower costs. Plus if it lifts their fleet utilisation, their network might be better off.
 
waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 7:18 am

tullamarine wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
qf789 wrote:

This was to be expected, loads have been poor, aircraft could be used elsewhere for better returns. I would think this may give REX the opportunity to start PER-GET


QF are generally stronger on the route. Im not sure i can see REX competing with QF on this route, perhaps if they can offer a lunchtime flight.

400kms seems a bit short to be making good money using a jet. It sounds more like a route more suited to SF3 or Dash 8.


QF tried Dash 8s then moved to F100s
VA just duplicates QF anyways all pretty much with in an hour of each other.

We find for work sending people to Geraldton QF is always the better option. Tho can often pay $600 plus return
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 3:12 pm

Virgin NZ changes

SYD-AKL reduces from 18 to 15 weekly, late July to late September

SYD-CHC changed to seasonal operating late September to late April

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... irstchurch
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 5:03 pm

Qantas has reported an average LF of 85% on the Bendigo service from SYD

https://blueswandaily.com/qantas-sydney ... six-weeks/
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 5:05 pm

Hainan has closed reservations on CSX-SYD from 13 Sep and XIY-SYD from 15 Jun

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2019/
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Boof
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 16, 2019 11:18 pm

getluv wrote:
My guess is Scurrah has found some big problems with VA's financial position that perhaps JB may have been hiding. Scurrah will clear the books and get VA in better shape and exit straight after.


Maybe you are on to something...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 51obn.html
Bring back Virgin Blue!
 
Qantas737
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 12:12 am

Cobham Aviation Embraer ERJ-190 VH-ZPT (ex VA and JetGo) is currently on it's way to Perth from Cairns. It arrived into Cairns wearing the JetGo livery (minus titles) on 15th May flying Nashville (BNA) - Van Nuys (VNY) - Hilo (ITO) - Cairns (CNS).
 
SenFinn
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 12:31 am

Boof wrote:
getluv wrote:
My guess is Scurrah has found some big problems with VA's financial position that perhaps JB may have been hiding. Scurrah will clear the books and get VA in better shape and exit straight after.


Maybe you are on to something...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 51obn.html


It seems that FX and oil prices more than cover the loss. These are out of the airlines control except if they have a fuel or FX hedge that could go either way in the longer term.

As a frequent user of both QF and VA, I don’t see much difference in on board service. The crews differ on every flight no matter which airline you’re on. For me the difference is in lounges and airside in Melbourne, where I’m based. I find QF to be far superior, but that’s a personal view.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 1:53 am

Qantas737 wrote:
Cobham Aviation Embraer ERJ-190 VH-ZPT (ex VA and JetGo) is currently on it's way to Perth from Cairns. It arrived into Cairns wearing the JetGo livery (minus titles) on 15th May flying Nashville (BNA) - Van Nuys (VNY) - Hilo (ITO) - Cairns (CNS).


Its gone a long way to come back then...
 
xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 2:05 am

qf789 wrote:
Hainan has closed reservations on CSX-SYD from 13 Sep and XIY-SYD from 15 Jun

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... june-2019/


Looks like HNA's strategic investment in VA is no longer important. Their last route Haikou-Sydney which started later than the above 2 may still be in the government subsidy period but will close as soon as it's over. The idea of flying directly from secondary Chinese cities is crazy and HNA will go back to flying rationally through hubs without subsidy.

Once the government subsidy is over, all airlines will stop flying from secondary and tertiary cities. VA would then need a good partner with a great hub which can only be one of PEK, PVG, and CAN. Hainan Airlines can't provide that. PEK seems to be too far and outside A330's range without payload restriction. The best outcome for VA is to have HNA exit their register and find a better Chinese partner, maybe CZ, maybe CA. Even HO, who has received approval to operate PVG-MEL later this year, is still tons better than HNA with their Shanghai hub.

VA can forget about flying into Mainland China for now. I don't know how HKG is doing but Hong Kong Airlines is a mess and VA's load factor appears to be low.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 2:51 am

I think PEK is doable without restrictions with the A330, but completely agree all these SYD/MEL flights to secondary cities will go.
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 3:07 am

Qantas737 wrote:
Cobham Aviation Embraer ERJ-190 VH-ZPT (ex VA and JetGo) is currently on it's way to Perth from Cairns. It arrived into Cairns wearing the JetGo livery (minus titles) on 15th May flying Nashville (BNA) - Van Nuys (VNY) - Hilo (ITO) - Cairns (CNS).


Close - the routing is BNA-VNY-ITO-MAJ-CNS-ASP-PER.
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
Qantas737
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 3:12 am

BAeRJ100 wrote:
Qantas737 wrote:
Cobham Aviation Embraer ERJ-190 VH-ZPT (ex VA and JetGo) is currently on it's way to Perth from Cairns. It arrived into Cairns wearing the JetGo livery (minus titles) on 15th May flying Nashville (BNA) - Van Nuys (VNY) - Hilo (ITO) - Cairns (CNS).


Close - the routing is BNA-VNY-ITO-MAJ-CNS-ASP-PER.


Thanks for the correction. I was going by FlightRadar24 which neglected to mention the MAJ stopover and I must admit I thought ITO-CNS was a bit of a stretch for an ERJ!

qf2220 wrote:
Its gone a long way to come back then...


It has indeed!
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 3:17 am

And just like that Virgin tips back into annual loss territory, if I'm reading today's market update correctly ($100m down on last year's result). Comment timing... typical!
 
TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 11:17 am

Boof wrote:
getluv wrote:
My guess is Scurrah has found some big problems with VA's financial position that perhaps JB may have been hiding. Scurrah will clear the books and get VA in better shape and exit straight after.


Maybe you are on to something...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 51obn.html


Reducing some services during May and June (traditionally the quietest two months of the year) has been standard practice for many years. The article mentions CBR; would that be quieter because of the Federal Election and Parliament not sitting?

If the article were balanced then it would also mention some of VA's increased services outside this quiet period, e.g. PER-OOL, PER-HBA, and HBA-SYD to name a few.
 
kriskim
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 12:24 pm

eta unknown wrote:
I think PEK is doable without restrictions with the A330, but completely agree all these SYD/MEL flights to secondary cities will go.


I still think there’s a good chance that a few are here to stay; XMN, CTU, TAO, SZX for example, IMHO these are routes that will be staying, 3U’s MEL-CTU has been operating since 2013, I’m pretty sure subsidies would have ran out by now. The flight is now being flown with A350’s.

The Chinese carriers are not showing any interest in Australian routes anymore, it seems their focus has shifted over to SE Asia, Europe and Nth America. CA has shown that Australia is no longer core to its growth and have cut 3 routes, long standing MEL/SYD-PVG is now gone and BNE-PEK was cut without much thought.
A world built upon connectivity.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Fri May 17, 2019 12:57 pm

TasFlyer wrote:
Boof wrote:
getluv wrote:
My guess is Scurrah has found some big problems with VA's financial position that perhaps JB may have been hiding. Scurrah will clear the books and get VA in better shape and exit straight after.


Maybe you are on to something...

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 51obn.html


Reducing some services during May and June (traditionally the quietest two months of the year) has been standard practice for many years. The article mentions CBR; would that be quieter because of the Federal Election and Parliament not sitting?

If the article were balanced then it would also mention some of VA's increased services outside this quiet period, e.g. PER-OOL, PER-HBA, and HBA-SYD to name a few.


Why would the article mention that? Even the company didn't try and wrap up today's atrocious news with some 'good news' from several months ago. The fact is VAH are about to slide back into a loss, something they are far too familiar with. Cutting capacity is the only way to address that on the short term (as in this FY) but something very, very drastic is going to have to change over the medium-to-long term. The business is not viable in its current state.

Without downplaying the sluggish nature of the Australian economy, we are pretty much at the top of the economic cycle from a global perspective. A recession in the USA is all-but-inevitable in the next 5 years, and that will have a major impact on global economic growth. I don't see how VAH is set up for an economic downturn.
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TasFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 5:24 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:
Boof wrote:


Reducing some services during May and June (traditionally the quietest two months of the year) has been standard practice for many years. The article mentions CBR; would that be quieter because of the Federal Election and Parliament not sitting?

If the article were balanced then it would also mention some of VA's increased services outside this quiet period, e.g. PER-OOL, PER-HBA, and HBA-SYD to name a few.


Why would the article mention that? Even the company didn't try and wrap up today's atrocious news with some 'good news' from several months ago. The fact is VAH are about to slide back into a loss, something they are far too familiar with. Cutting capacity is the only way to address that on the short term (as in this FY) but something very, very drastic is going to have to change over the medium-to-long term. The business is not viable in its current state.

Without downplaying the sluggish nature of the Australian economy, we are pretty much at the top of the economic cycle from a global perspective. A recession in the USA is all-but-inevitable in the next 5 years, and that will have a major impact on global economic growth. I don't see how VAH is set up for an economic downturn.


But domestic's profitable isn't it? How will cutting domestic capacity (in May and June only) stem losses from international?
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 7:22 am

TasFlyer wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
TasFlyer wrote:

Reducing some services during May and June (traditionally the quietest two months of the year) has been standard practice for many years. The article mentions CBR; would that be quieter because of the Federal Election and Parliament not sitting?

If the article were balanced then it would also mention some of VA's increased services outside this quiet period, e.g. PER-OOL, PER-HBA, and HBA-SYD to name a few.


Why would the article mention that? Even the company didn't try and wrap up today's atrocious news with some 'good news' from several months ago. The fact is VAH are about to slide back into a loss, something they are far too familiar with. Cutting capacity is the only way to address that on the short term (as in this FY) but something very, very drastic is going to have to change over the medium-to-long term. The business is not viable in its current state.

Without downplaying the sluggish nature of the Australian economy, we are pretty much at the top of the economic cycle from a global perspective. A recession in the USA is all-but-inevitable in the next 5 years, and that will have a major impact on global economic growth. I don't see how VAH is set up for an economic downturn.


But domestic's profitable isn't it? How will cutting domestic capacity (in May and June only) stem losses from international?

Just because something is profitable doesn't mean that every route is doing well and is profitable. Cutting those routes may put the airline into profitability as most Loss making international may not be able to be changed as easily.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 7:45 am

^

Short Haul International would be easier to tinker with (e.g reducing or axing the non-subsidised NZ/Pacific routes) than with Long Haul International (where both routes: HKG and LAX) are tied into JV contracts with HX and DL respectively.
 
FL420FT
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Sat May 18, 2019 8:19 pm

QF7 SYD DFW on 18 May has diverted to IAH due weather in DFW.

It will be a 'splash and dash', expecting to be on the ground in IAH for 40 minutes only then a 40 minute flying time to DFW (subject to the weather in DFW)
 
budgetflyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 20, 2019 3:29 am

A possible explanation for Virgin’s poor financial performance, as per their most recent results. Even if it is their strongest market, Virgin will always be affected more by changes in the domestic market compared to Qantas, simply because a greater proportion of their available seat kilometres are deployed within Australia.

https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/ ... ll-in-may/
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