airboss787 wrote:

COEWR787 wrote:

binayak wrote:

The 77L will still make it non stop.

UA 49 makes it non stop from BOM to EWR using a 77W while avoiding Pakistan and Iran everyday these days.

Half true. It uses the southern airspace of Pakistan that was opened near Karachi and it certainly flies over Iran. It was these 2 things that made the flight go nonstop. Otherwise, it is a stop in MUC, FRA or BGR.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 9#20ae1698

devmapper wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

avier wrote:

AI is structured in a way where they never make any money even in the best of times. At most a breakeven operating margin, probably once in the last decade, but nothing more than that.
When professionally run airlines are struggling to have decent margins, what can one expect from one of the most inefficient and loss making company amongst the public sector units and also of the country.

Hasn’t Air India Express made money for several years? What differentiates it from its parent? Couldn’t the Government sell off AIX Spears from its parent? At least that one may find buyers

IX leases about 20-25 737's and utilizes multiple point-to-point flights to keep average utilization of its frames above 12 hours a day. Plus, being a relatively new entity, it does not have any significant pension obligations. It also helps that maintenance is outsourced to operators in the Gulf. AI on the other hand, foolishly bought 50 widebody jets (15 77W, 8 77L and 27 788) which it had to pay upfront for, especially considering AI has never been a large enough airline to be able to justify such a large fleet. Essentially, AI spent all its money and borrowed heavily to buy the frames, which left nothing to pay for the maintenance contracts and spares. That triggered another round of borrowing to meet its operational expenses. All this, in the 2000's when air travel was generally slow due to the terrorism and financial crises, means that AI today has such a large debt burden, it probably pays more to service the debt than to actually run itself. We'll know if this is true once the books are published end of June. Add to this the debt and the problems it inherited from absorbing IC along with its aging fleet, and its inability to borrow money from the international market with lower financing costs, alongside the GOI's insistence that it pay the interest to the banks first, inevitably leads to a situation where AI cannot meet its obligations from internal accruals. Consider this, why has AI, with all its problems, never been in the news for not paying back its loans, while IT and 9W went under?

The last GOI thought they could sell off AI as is, but they were proven wrong. The new GOI is trying to do split the airline into a "good" airline and a "bad" airline and sell it in parts. I hope they succeed, because anyone buying AI has a lot of working paring down the fleet (there aren't enough current and potential destinations to ever need 27 788s) and planning for the future (the 15 77Ws that could form the backbone for a very profitable North American market are nearly 10 years old on average, they'll need replacement in 2 years and resale values will not be good for these frames). They need to strategically cut their losses in the domestic market, and look to optimize arrival and departure banks to better facilitate connecting via DEL.

devmapper wrote:

edealinfo wrote:

avier wrote:

AI is structured in a way where they never make any money even in the best of times. At most a breakeven operating margin, probably once in the last decade, but nothing more than that.
When professionally run airlines are struggling to have decent margins, what can one expect from one of the most inefficient and loss making company amongst the public sector units and also of the country.

Hasn’t Air India Express made money for several years? What differentiates it from its parent? Couldn’t the Government sell off AIX Spears from its parent? At least that one may find buyers

IX leases about 20-25 737's and utilizes multiple point-to-point flights to keep average utilization of its frames above 12 hours a day. Plus, being a relatively new entity, it does not have any significant pension obligations. It also helps that maintenance is outsourced to operators in the Gulf. AI on the other hand, foolishly bought 50 widebody jets (15 77W, 8 77L and 27 788) which it had to pay upfront for, especially considering AI has never been a large enough airline to be able to justify such a large fleet. Essentially, AI spent all its money and borrowed heavily to buy the frames, which left nothing to pay for the maintenance contracts and spares. That triggered another round of borrowing to meet its operational expenses. All this, in the 2000's when air travel was generally slow due to the terrorism and financial crises, means that AI today has such a large debt burden, it probably pays more to service the debt than to actually run itself. We'll know if this is true once the books are published end of June. Add to this the debt and the problems it inherited from absorbing IC along with its aging fleet, and its inability to borrow money from the international market with lower financing costs, alongside the GOI's insistence that it pay the interest to the banks first, inevitably leads to a situation where AI cannot meet its obligations from internal accruals. Consider this, why has AI, with all its problems, never been in the news for not paying back its loans, while IT and 9W went under?

The last GOI thought they could sell off AI as is, but they were proven wrong. The new GOI is trying to do split the airline into a "good" airline and a "bad" airline and sell it in parts. I hope they succeed, because anyone buying AI has a lot of working paring down the fleet (there aren't enough current and potential destinations to ever need 27 788s) and planning for the future (the 15 77Ws that could form the backbone for a very profitable North American market are nearly 10 years old on average, they'll need replacement in 2 years and resale values will not be good for these frames). They need to strategically cut their losses in the domestic market, and look to optimize arrival and departure banks to better facilitate connecting via DEL.

JOYA380B747 wrote:

UK is inducting an all-Y A32N from Wow air (TF-NEO), already painted in UK colors. Wonder which route(s) will this be used.

https://www.instagram.com/p/ByE4Yg0hZkS ... 42zqt6a1uu

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

voxkel wrote:

Looks like AI SFO-DEL is sometimes stopping in RKT. I suppose an 18.5hr flight is pushing the limits on even the 77L. I think this flight by time is actually longer than EWR-SIN.

It would be interesting to see how the economy experience is on a 19hr nonstop AIr India flight .

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

hohd wrote:

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

Jet's demise offered a brief respite for Indian carriers to raise fares, but another round of capacity increases has diminished this effect. There is merit in offering increased services to/from BOM, but there was no urgent need to increase capacity on other sectors.

Also the constant increase in loads but at low fares is causing strains at the airport and air traffic controls and this calls for another round of airport expansions. May be airports have to impose higher fees on airlines on airport use for domestic sectors to keep capacity increase in line with demand at profitable prices.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

And this is why the first come first serve policy was dumb. I still can't understand why people would think this was the best policy. They should have released half the slots and then let things shake out. Allowed airlines to make real plans and then picked routes that added to the portfolio of cities that were connected to BOM. Mark my word the number of city pairs connected to BOM will go down and capacity on trunk routes (like BOM-DEL/BLR/CCU) will go up. Yields will go further down. Plus airlines leased aircraft on the rush. Paid what ever rates and took aircraft/engine types they aren't familiar with - which raises costs. Great policy! Masterstroke. This is what crony capitalism gets you.

lightsaber wrote:

hohd wrote:

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

Jet's demise offered a brief respite for Indian carriers to raise fares, but another round of capacity increases has diminished this effect. There is merit in offering increased services to/from BOM, but there was no urgent need to increase capacity on other sectors.

Also the constant increase in loads but at low fares is causing strains at the airport and air traffic controls and this calls for another round of airport expansions. May be airports have to impose higher fees on airlines on airport use for domestic sectors to keep capacity increase in line with demand at profitable prices.

Facinating link that doesn't understand a growth industry.

In January, 1.42*10^11 ASK is too much
1.29*10^11 ASK in February is too little in low season.

Assuming the market continues to grow at 20%, that means India needs more than 1.55*10^11 ask in December.

The market should be under-served in 2019 assuming that chart is accurate for growth from ameya's link (quoted).

So unless the India economy really slows, the market is OK in 2019.

Lightsaber

Late edit:. My worst case estimate of India growth is 12%. So as long as ASK stays below 1.52*10^11 (average of too much and too little *1.12), which looks certain, the market is going to be fine.

lightsaber wrote:

hohd wrote:

ameya wrote:

Indian aviation could be heading into another cycle of overcapacity and that is bad news for airlines

Charts and full article on the link

From hyper growth to negative growth, the last eight months have been a rollercoaster for Indian aviation. Capacity induction, led by IndiGo, had fuelled a 20 percent growth in passenger numbers, commensurate with the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) growth each month. Buoyed by cheaper fares, airline after airline pushed for greater occupancy.
The collapse of Jet Airways has often been partially blamed on too much capacity being dumped in the Indian market. It has become a vicious cycle where quick induction of aircraft leads to over capacity in the market. This capacity has to be filled and to stimulate the market and attract passengers, airlines at times sell seats at low fares. While this generates demand and helps fill up the planes and increase load factors, seldom are such mechanisms profitable in the long run.

Jet's demise offered a brief respite for Indian carriers to raise fares, but another round of capacity increases has diminished this effect. There is merit in offering increased services to/from BOM, but there was no urgent need to increase capacity on other sectors.

Also the constant increase in loads but at low fares is causing strains at the airport and air traffic controls and this calls for another round of airport expansions. May be airports have to impose higher fees on airlines on airport use for domestic sectors to keep capacity increase in line with demand at profitable prices.

Facinating link that doesn't understand a growth industry.

In January, 1.42*10^11 ASK is too much
1.29*10^11 ASK in February is too little in low season.

Assuming the market continues to grow at 20%, that means India needs more than 1.55*10^11 ask in December.

The market should be under-served in 2019 assuming that chart is accurate for growth from ameya's link (quoted).

So unless the India economy really slows, the market is OK in 2019.

Lightsaber

Late edit:. My worst case estimate of India growth is 12%. So as long as ASK stays below 1.52*10^11 (average of too much and too little *1.12), which looks certain, the market is going to be fine.

CaliguyNYC wrote:

But Lightsaber how are you estimating growth. Aviation might be growing at say 20% with prices 10% below cost. What would Indian aviation grow at with airfare 10% over cost (or whatever is a fair margin).

anshabhi wrote:

Hey lightsaber are you professionally involved in studying the Indian market?
Otherwise it's very rare to find a foreigner with no roots to India to be so deeply interested in the Indian market

avier wrote:

CaliguyNYC wrote:

Aviation might be growing at say 20% with prices 10% below cost. What would Indian aviation grow at with airfare 10% over cost (or whatever is a fair margin).

Also selling way below cost and talking of growth is like iPhone selling their devices at ₹1000 and talking of robust growth in India

dtw2hyd wrote:

I think you guys missed the a.net storyline completely. 9W and AI were/are the only ones selling below cost. That was the primary reason for 9W's demise per JetDoom thread. AI bound to fail for the same reason. Both SG and 6E never sell below cost and have healthy margins.

unrave wrote:

IndiGo's upcoming international destinations:
- Vnukovo, Moscow, Russia
- Beijing, China
- Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Mandalay, Burma
- Manila, Philippines
- Bahrain.

Source: Tarun Shukla, ET aviation journo

anshabhi wrote:

Or he's just a puppet of airline CEOs and has been chosen by them to prevent any interruption to them.

unrave wrote:

He is a Minister of State with independent charge of aviation. They are making Civil Av a very low key

pushpakvimaan wrote:

Most news channels are reporting a tweet from IAF_MCC that India has removed airspace restrictions imposed since Feb.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 600819.cms

Can some one share more information ? Was any NOTAM in place ? I could not locate one.
I always thought airspace was closed on Pakistani side and Indian airspace was made open very soon after air incursion incident.

unrave wrote:

He is a Minister of State with independent charge of aviation. They are making Civil Av a very low key

edealinfo wrote:

Poor Vinod Dube

A look out notice has been issued for him ( a professional working for Delta in a senior position he now has to face the Indian music for his decision to try to run Jet. What message is India trying to send????

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbctv ... 91.htm/amp

avier wrote:

Vistara operated their first 737 flight using the ex-Jet aircraft on DEL-ATQ last night (31st May). Reg. is VT-TGB and still bears the 9W seats/config and livery - sans the Jet name and flying sun logo, same like how SpiceJet is operating those ex-9W aircrafts.
Funny how India's most premium airline (UK) and India's most shabby airline (SG) are now operating the exact same type of a fleet product, be it on the outside or inside.

https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1134486506381299712

binayak wrote:

Not exactly the same product inside . SG has taken the oldest ones ( some pre 2006 frames too) and thus the product in those ones are outdated specially in J and surprisingly SG is trying to market that as a new product .
UK has on the other hand taken comparatively much newer ones in which the product is still competitive. If I ain't wrong, the 737s taken by Vistara have sky interior too.

avier wrote:

Vistara operated their first 737 flight using the ex-Jet aircraft on DEL-ATQ last night (31st May). Reg. is VT-TGB and still bears the 9W seats/config and livery - sans the Jet name and flying sun logo, same like how SpiceJet is operating those ex-9W aircrafts.
Funny how India's most premium airline (UK) and India's most shabby airline (SG) are now operating the exact same type of a fleet product, be it on the outside or inside.

https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1134486506381299712

avier wrote:

Vistara operated their first 737 flight using the ex-Jet aircraft on DEL-ATQ last night (31st May). Reg. is VT-TGB and still bears the 9W seats/config and livery - sans the Jet name and flying sun logo, same like how SpiceJet is operating those ex-9W aircrafts.
Funny how India's most premium airline (UK) and India's most shabby airline (SG) are now operating the exact same type of a fleet product, be it on the outside or inside.

https://twitter.com/airvistara/status/1134486506381299712