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edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 6:26 pm

DELETE
 
VTORD
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 8:46 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
why hasn’t Vistara stepped in and started long haul? They could have just stepped right into Jet’s EU flights. I am sure DL, KL, AF, VS would have loved that. Even the LHR slots could have been handled through VS. Vistara would have had the revenue from DL/AF/KL/VS’s already sold tickets to india. They could have leased the Jet wide bodies or taken SQ’s old planes.

Maybe they ran numbers and numbers did not favor doing so? You don't know that they did not try. There could be any number of "business reasons" that you & me are not privy to as to why they didn't do it.

edealinfo wrote:
And don't forget this is the same Lohani that said Air India would take of 5 of Jet's 777 and fly them to London, only to later learn that Jet didn't also own the LHR slots. Instead of owning up to his mistake like a man, he got his engineers to state that Air India's change of heart was because of the poor state of Jet's aircraft!

Again, You don't know what Lohani knows or doesn't! It was very likely a good call given that 2 of his own 77Ws are lying around for 9 months. There was literally no point in AI making such stupid decisions just because a few BOM/DEL slots got vacated. And it is very likely that Jet's 77Ws are not in the best shape.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 9:13 pm

VTORD wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
why hasn’t Vistara stepped in and started long haul? They could have just stepped right into Jet’s EU flights. I am sure DL, KL, AF, VS would have loved that. Even the LHR slots could have been handled through VS. Vistara would have had the revenue from DL/AF/KL/VS’s already sold tickets to india. They could have leased the Jet wide bodies or taken SQ’s old planes.

Maybe they ran numbers and numbers did not favor doing so? You don't know that they did not try. There could be any number of "business reasons" that you & me are not privy to as to why they didn't do it.

edealinfo wrote:
And don't forget this is the same Lohani that said Air India would take of 5 of Jet's 777 and fly them to London, only to later learn that Jet didn't also own the LHR slots. Instead of owning up to his mistake like a man, he got his engineers to state that Air India's change of heart was because of the poor state of Jet's aircraft!

Again, You don't know what Lohani knows or doesn't! It was very likely a good call given that 2 of his own 77Ws are lying around for 9 months. There was literally no point in AI making such stupid decisions just because a few BOM/DEL slots got vacated. And it is very likely that Jet's 77Ws are not in the best shape.


Agreed we don’t know which is why I wanted to discuss. IMHO the full redistribution of Jet slots and routes has been a weird process. Most of the discussion has focused around domestic routes and Spice. I was just trying to move the topic to Vistara. They had a great chance to start some key long haul routes given Jet had like 30% of international traffic out of BOM. They just seem to be way too conservative even for them. No self respecting Indian FSC carrier that flies international would not fly to LHR and HKG. So at a minimum they should have tried for those routes. Feel free to disagree with me. It just feels really odd to me.
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Mon May 27, 2019 11:16 pm

VTORD wrote:
Again, You don't know what Lohani knows or doesn't! It was very likely a good call given that 2 of his own 77Ws are lying around for 9 months. There was literally no point in AI making such stupid decisions just because a few BOM/DEL slots got vacated. And it is very likely that Jet's 77Ws are not in the best shape.
[/quote]

The genius Lohani had written a letter to SBI asking for the 5 Jet 777 planes. Just check out the article in the link below. Even SBI was surprised by the contents of the letter and I have included some fair use quotes below. So, are you suggesting he didn't write the letter? [There are a gazillion news articles on his letter]. And, the basis for his decision - "saddened by events at Jet causing inconvenience to passengers"...yeah Mr. Genius...we can see how you are trying to project your image as Mr. Savior.

"SBI does not own in shares and the management is still Jet Airways. So it is very bizarre that the Air India CMD has addressed the letter to SBI seeking Jet Airway's routes. SBI cannot take this call," said a bank official anonymously.

Interestingly, the letter also states: "We can examine the possibility of taking 5 B777's on wet lease/dry lease basis from SBI, the terms of which can be mutually trashed out."

I agree that Lohani made a stupid decision as you stated. He subsequently retracted that decision and conveniently got his engineers to say that there were maintenance issues on the aircraft when those very same planes were flying (i.e., in perfect shape) just 6 days earlier. I stand by my statement that he is not a man to be passing the buck and not owning up to an obvious mistake. What's really scary is this guy is in charge of Air India! it doesn't need another showman but someone who knows the business.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/stor ... 2019-04-18
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 12:57 am

anshabhi wrote:
Strange sounding results from IndiGo!!

India’s largest airline IndiGo on Monday said net profit for the March quarter rose 401.17% from a year ago as the airline flew more passengers and registered higher yields. However, on an annual basis, Indigo's profit for 2018-19 was down 93%.

https://www.livemint.com/companies/comp ... 10358.html

However great that they were ultimately able to pull off a profitable year in a very tough environment while continuing rapid growth

A very tough year. Only the 4th quarter made the year profitable. I predicted back in February that the high yields would last 15 to 24 months.

Pratt engine issues.
Pilot shortage
Intense fare war

Then all forgiven by Jet collapse.

Lightsaber
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blrsea
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 2:03 am

edealinfo wrote:
VTORD wrote:
Again, You don't know what Lohani knows or doesn't! It was very likely a good call given that 2 of his own 77Ws are lying around for 9 months. There was literally no point in AI making such stupid decisions just because a few BOM/DEL slots got vacated. And it is very likely that Jet's 77Ws are not in the best shape.


He subsequently retracted that decision and conveniently got his engineers to say that there were maintenance issues on the aircraft when those very same planes were flying (i.e., in perfect shape) just 6 days earlier. I stand by my statement that he is not a man to be passing the buck and not owning up to an obvious mistake. What's really scary is this guy is in charge of Air India! it doesn't need another showman but someone who knows the business.

https://www.indiatoday.in/business/stor ... 2019-04-18


None of your links show evidence of the bolded part. That is slander right there. I guess it doesn't take much to make slanderous statements without backing up with any evidence, just reflects on the poster's ethics.

Perhaps a little bit less of conspiracy theories and name-calling would make the forum a better place to exchange news and discussion, instead of screaming and attributing motives, slander, name-calling etc to everyone?

As per edealinfo's posts on Jet's thread & this thread:

1. SBI chairman is imbecile
2. AI chariman is stupid and a showman
3. SpiceJet's CEO is a genius
4. Vistara is lazy and have no business sense
5. Indian rules are stupid and have no logic
6. Indian DGCA is stupid and illogical.
7. Indian laws are stupid

I have left out many other statements on other entities and various other conspiracy theories peddled out here.

I wonder what it takes to have serious discussion instead of juvenile rants and conspiracy theories? Its not the number of posts but the content of the posts that add value.
 
avier
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:55 am

lightsaber wrote:
A very tough year. Only the 4th quarter made the year profitable. I predicted back in February that the high yields would last 15 to 24 months.


High yields would last starting from when? After Jet shutdown right? Which happened progressively from March, which is about 2 months back.

However, as per 6E's earnings call, their CEO claims:
- Jet Airways shutdown helped in part of Feb and March
- By June except for some international markets Jet impact will completely disappear

Which implies it's barely few months of high yield from the Jet impact ..after which it will come back to as before.
15 to 24 months as you state is far off.
 
anshabhi
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 6:50 am

Delete
Last edited by anshabhi on Tue May 28, 2019 6:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 6:51 am

avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A very tough year. Only the 4th quarter made the year profitable. I predicted back in February that the high yields would last 15 to 24 months.


High yields would last starting from when? After Jet shutdown right? Which happened progressively from March, which is about 2 months back.

However, as per 6E's earnings call, their CEO claims:
- Jet Airways shutdown helped in part of Feb and March
- By June except for some international markets Jet impact will completely disappear

Which implies it's barely few months of high yield from the Jet impact ..after which it will come back to as before.
15 to 24 months as you state is far off.

The initial spike of yield will mellow back, but still be elevated.

I made my prediction starting in February when fares had already spiked.

India will still be in elevated yields past June. I'm talking about a return to where only the best cost controlled can break even. This current extreame spike was always to be short. I'm predicting by as early as May 2020 or as late as February 2021 a return to oversupply.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
The quote is Jet's capacity will be replaced in 2 or 3 months (from today):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html

But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill. In the fastest growing market, I assume market growth.
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lightsaber
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 11:58 am

SpiceJet made a profit:

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 837_1.html

Nice recovery from the MAX grounding.
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avier
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 12:17 pm

lightsaber wrote:
But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill.

Yes, but also in the mean time one airline with exactly 50% of the market would be growing at 30-35%. Others ofcourse like Spice are inducting Jet aircrafts at fast pace and growing too. So the growth is well accounted for. So I don't see yields to be on the better side after a few months. 1.5 to 2 yrs like you state is still far far off in the estimates.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 3:32 pm

lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A very tough year. Only the 4th quarter made the year profitable. I predicted back in February that the high yields would last 15 to 24 months.


High yields would last starting from when? After Jet shutdown right? Which happened progressively from March, which is about 2 months back.

However, as per 6E's earnings call, their CEO claims:
- Jet Airways shutdown helped in part of Feb and March
- By June except for some international markets Jet impact will completely disappear

Which implies it's barely few months of high yield from the Jet impact ..after which it will come back to as before.
15 to 24 months as you state is far off.

The initial spike of yield will mellow back, but still be elevated.

I made my prediction starting in February when fares had already spiked.

India will still be in elevated yields past June. I'm talking about a return to where only the best cost controlled can break even. This current extreame spike was always to be short. I'm predicting by as early as May 2020 or as late as February 2021 a return to oversupply.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
The quote is Jet's capacity will be replaced in 2 or 3 months (from today):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html

But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill. In the fastest growing market, I assume market growth.


Interesting take on yields. Here's a flip argument - BOM went from having a strong, but not dominant, FSC carrier hubbed there for both INTL and Domestic flights. This carrier was probably the go to for many business travelers and offered standard yield enhancing tools like FF programs, credit cards with miles and upgrades. Now BOM has a dominant LCC, Indigo, with all other airlines gaining slots. No one airline is an ideal choice for business travelers, has a strong FF program (unless you count AI), and can really provide the length and breadth of cities to be truly loyal to them (at a basic level only AI has long haul flights). So isn't BOM now even more competitive than before and high value pax will just gravitate to the best timings or fares? Doesn't seem like yields will stay high once the capacity comes back to normal. In fact shouldn't yields DROP from where they were when Jet was around? Captive pax raise fares/yields. BOM is a free for all. I hope Vistara or Spice steps up and atlas starts a good enough DOM/INTL presence in BOM to keep the upper end of the traffic loyal. Indian airlines need this yield enhancing group desparately.
 
binayak
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 3:45 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
Interesting take on yields. Here's a flip argument - BOM went from having a strong, but not dominant, FSC carrier hubbed there for both INTL and Domestic flights. This carrier was probably the go to for many business travelers and offered standard yield enhancing tools like FF programs, credit cards with miles and upgrades. Now BOM has a dominant LCC, Indigo, with all other airlines gaining slots. No one airline is an ideal choice for business travelers, has a strong FF program (unless you count AI),.


AI's FFP isn't strong unless someone is a long haul frequent flyer. It is very difficult to gain higher status if most of my trips are within 2-3 hours.
Vistara's is much better for domestic FFs and that's one reason why everyone wants them to grow out of BOM.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 4:07 pm

binayak wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
Interesting take on yields. Here's a flip argument - BOM went from having a strong, but not dominant, FSC carrier hubbed there for both INTL and Domestic flights. This carrier was probably the go to for many business travelers and offered standard yield enhancing tools like FF programs, credit cards with miles and upgrades. Now BOM has a dominant LCC, Indigo, with all other airlines gaining slots. No one airline is an ideal choice for business travelers, has a strong FF program (unless you count AI),.


AI's FFP isn't strong unless someone is a long haul frequent flyer. It is very difficult to gain higher status if most of my trips are within 2-3 hours.
Vistara's is much better for domestic FFs and that's one reason why everyone wants them to grow out of BOM.


I agree. I only mentioned AI since it technically has a FF program that is integrated into Star. But yes I wish Vistara has received the most of the BOM slots but sadly not the case. Also on international, I would have wanted Vistara to fly BOM-HKG/SIN/DXB - these are all business routes and best served by a FSC. But again went to others. I fail to understand why people wanted Spice to fly these routes. LCCs already fly to DXB and SIN. BOM needs one true business option that is not a foreign airline. Perhaps Spice is going to morph into a hybrid LCC/FSC. Then good for them. In the US the FAA tries to allocate slots to LCCs at crowded airports. In India they almost need to do the opposite!
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 4:20 pm

Any hint on SkyTeam's new partner at BOM and DEL. KL showing AI connections on their website at DEL.

With the successful takedown of 9W, AI seems to be the next one on the block.

Hope SkyTeam picks a long-lasting partner.
 
binayak
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 4:31 pm

CaliguyNYC wrote:
I agree. I only mentioned AI since it technically has a FF program that is integrated into Star. But yes I wish Vistara has received the most of the BOM slots but sadly not the case. Also on international, I would have wanted Vistara to fly BOM-HKG/SIN/DXB - these are all business routes and best served by a FSC. But again went to others. I fail to understand why people wanted Spice to fly these routes. LCCs already fly to DXB and SIN. BOM needs one true business option that is not a foreign airline. Perhaps Spice is going to morph into a hybrid LCC/FSC. Then good for them. In the US the FAA tries to allocate slots to LCCs at crowded airports. In India they almost need to do the opposite!


Vistara will fly BOM - HKG / SIN in a year or two at the max. Those routes cannot be ignored when BASA is full and CX can't add more flights.
Even if SG tries a hybrid case, a 737 SpiceBiz will be nothing compared to lie flat J in CX.
Let's hope permanent slot allocation after July 1 is in a different manner than temporary allocation.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:36 pm

binayak wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
I agree. I only mentioned AI since it technically has a FF program that is integrated into Star. But yes I wish Vistara has received the most of the BOM slots but sadly not the case. Also on international, I would have wanted Vistara to fly BOM-HKG/SIN/DXB - these are all business routes and best served by a FSC. But again went to others. I fail to understand why people wanted Spice to fly these routes. LCCs already fly to DXB and SIN. BOM needs one true business option that is not a foreign airline. Perhaps Spice is going to morph into a hybrid LCC/FSC. Then good for them. In the US the FAA tries to allocate slots to LCCs at crowded airports. In India they almost need to do the opposite!


Vistara will fly BOM - HKG / SIN in a year or two at the max. Those routes cannot be ignored when BASA is full and CX can't add more flights.
Even if SG tries a hybrid case, a 737 SpiceBiz will be nothing compared to lie flat J in CX.
Let's hope permanent slot allocation after July 1 is in a different manner than temporary allocation.


Going by posts on net, it seems that these temp slots will be converted to permanent. I have been saying that there should be a process as well. But it seems like we are in the minority here on anet. People feel the mad grab of slots is the best solution.
My only issue with the HKG bilateral is that it is based on flights. So for Vistara to get a flight latter (on BOM-HKG or DEL-HKG), CX has to get a flight as well. CX will deploy a wide body and they will definitely up DEL and BOM frequencies. So they will be the preferred choice for DEL/BOM to HKG and drain even more traffic from DEL/BOM to West Coast of the US. While I know the US FAA system is not popular on this thread, I like how they take into account new entrants and aircraft size for limited flight bilaterals. They would never give a flight to a 737 when someone wants to fly say a 787. But sadly Vistara didn't put them in the game. They seem to be sitting on the sidelines taking the scraps the GOI will give them (and not even complain). So I guess we can only blame Vistara.
 
B1168
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:40 pm

lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A very tough year. Only the 4th quarter made the year profitable. I predicted back in February that the high yields would last 15 to 24 months.


High yields would last starting from when? After Jet shutdown right? Which happened progressively from March, which is about 2 months back.

However, as per 6E's earnings call, their CEO claims:
- Jet Airways shutdown helped in part of Feb and March
- By June except for some international markets Jet impact will completely disappear

Which implies it's barely few months of high yield from the Jet impact ..after which it will come back to as before.
15 to 24 months as you state is far off.

The initial spike of yield will mellow back, but still be elevated.

I made my prediction starting in February when fares had already spiked.

India will still be in elevated yields past June. I'm talking about a return to where only the best cost controlled can break even. This current extreame spike was always to be short. I'm predicting by as early as May 2020 or as late as February 2021 a return to oversupply.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
The quote is Jet's capacity will be replaced in 2 or 3 months (from today):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html

But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill. In the fastest growing market, I assume market growth.


Does the Jet Airways’ collapse prompt them to join the China market? They applied for daily DEL-CTU and CCU-CAN last month, and was granted as requested. They can probably make a considerable profit since Chinese side can’t add flights anyways.
 
VTCIE
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:50 pm

The ex-9W Vistara 737s are to be registered VT-TG*, judging by this photograph, where the registration is VT-TGB. Note that, unlike SG, UK will paint its 737s in the full Vistara livery, so do not worry about UK cutting corners.

Source: https://livefromalounge.boardingarea.com/2019/05/28/vistara-boeing-737-fleet/

Image
In grieving remembrance of the thousands of people who lost their lives on ET-AVJ, PK-LQP, XA-UHZ, S2-AGU, CP-2933, SU-GCC, EI-ETJ, D-AIPX, PK-AXC, 9M-MRD, VT-AXV and above all 9M-MRO, besides many more. Your deaths are not in vain. Safety first, always.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 5:58 pm

B1168 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
avier wrote:

High yields would last starting from when? After Jet shutdown right? Which happened progressively from March, which is about 2 months back.

However, as per 6E's earnings call, their CEO claims:
- Jet Airways shutdown helped in part of Feb and March
- By June except for some international markets Jet impact will completely disappear

Which implies it's barely few months of high yield from the Jet impact ..after which it will come back to as before.
15 to 24 months as you state is far off.

The initial spike of yield will mellow back, but still be elevated.

I made my prediction starting in February when fares had already spiked.

India will still be in elevated yields past June. I'm talking about a return to where only the best cost controlled can break even. This current extreame spike was always to be short. I'm predicting by as early as May 2020 or as late as February 2021 a return to oversupply.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
The quote is Jet's capacity will be replaced in 2 or 3 months (from today):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html

But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill. In the fastest growing market, I assume market growth.


Does the Jet Airways’ collapse prompt them to join the China market? They applied for daily DEL-CTU and CCU-CAN last month, and was granted as requested. They can probably make a considerable profit since Chinese side can’t add flights anyways.

That route starting is good news.

Jet went under as yield was below cost. Not every old route should be served or perhaps served with a way to fill more seats.

I don't know if these are new routes or not. But the indications are India-China is under-served.

Lightsaber
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audian
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 7:58 pm

Does anyone know if AI non stop from DEL-DFW on charts anytime soon?

I see AI has closed down BOM-JFK from June freeing up 773's. Is this an indication that they are planning to deploy it on a new route to USA?
 
edealinfo
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 10:04 pm

How many of Jet’s international slots have been or soon to be forfeited under an airport’s “use it or lose it” policy? For instance the AMS slots will likely be forfeited but no Indian carrier wants them anyway. What about the slots that Indian carriers want but are in danger of being lost since the Government is taking its own sweet time in allocating them?
 
B1168
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 10:08 pm

lightsaber wrote:
B1168 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
The initial spike of yield will mellow back, but still be elevated.

I made my prediction starting in February when fares had already spiked.

India will still be in elevated yields past June. I'm talking about a return to where only the best cost controlled can break even. This current extreame spike was always to be short. I'm predicting by as early as May 2020 or as late as February 2021 a return to oversupply.

Lightsaber

Late edit:
The quote is Jet's capacity will be replaced in 2 or 3 months (from today):

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 041_1.html

But that the market will grow 8% to 9% by then. So there will still be demand to fill. In the fastest growing market, I assume market growth.


Does the Jet Airways’ collapse prompt them to join the China market? They applied for daily DEL-CTU and CCU-CAN last month, and was granted as requested. They can probably make a considerable profit since Chinese side can’t add flights anyways.

That route starting is good news.

Jet went under as yield was below cost. Not every old route should be served or perhaps served with a way to fill more seats.

I don't know if these are new routes or not. But the indications are India-China is under-served.

Lightsaber


It is indeed true that the collapse of Jet Airways offered relief for the rest of the players. See, less competition, better yield, more incentive for expansion.

Air India is still in a hard time (alike how Jet Airways had been prior to its collapse), which is why their China service was very limited. Since India insisted that 80% of the flight rights on Indian side be utilized before creating new bilateral agreement, China-India service capacity was limited to 42 weekly on Chinese side, plus what’s on Air India. It is indeed very glad to see a new player in the field.

Also, it should be noted that both routes applied by 6E (which they will both operate exclusively) are shorter than those going to Turkey, so they don’t even need to send in A320neo series anyways.
 
CaliguyNYC
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Tue May 28, 2019 10:45 pm

B1168 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
B1168 wrote:

Does the Jet Airways’ collapse prompt them to join the China market? They applied for daily DEL-CTU and CCU-CAN last month, and was granted as requested. They can probably make a considerable profit since Chinese side can’t add flights anyways.

That route starting is good news.

Jet went under as yield was below cost. Not every old route should be served or perhaps served with a way to fill more seats.

I don't know if these are new routes or not. But the indications are India-China is under-served.

Lightsaber


It is indeed true that the collapse of Jet Airways offered relief for the rest of the players. See, less competition, better yield, more incentive for expansion.

Air India is still in a hard time (alike how Jet Airways had been prior to its collapse), which is why their China service was very limited. Since India insisted that 80% of the flight rights on Indian side be utilized before creating new bilateral agreement, China-India service capacity was limited to 42 weekly on Chinese side, plus what’s on Air India. It is indeed very glad to see a new player in the field.

Also, it should be noted that both routes applied by 6E (which they will both operate exclusively) are shorter than those going to Turkey, so they don’t even need to send in A320neo series anyways.


Didn’t Spice fly DEL-China (I think CAN) and the flight failed. I always thought China was tough because of Chinese carriers low fares.
 
VTCIE
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:48 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
B1168 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
That route starting is good news.

Jet went under as yield was below cost. Not every old route should be served or perhaps served with a way to fill more seats.

I don't know if these are new routes or not. But the indications are India-China is under-served.

Lightsaber

It is indeed true that the collapse of Jet Airways offered relief for the rest of the players. See, less competition, better yield, more incentive for expansion.

Air India is still in a hard time (alike how Jet Airways had been prior to its collapse), which is why their China service was very limited. Since India insisted that 80% of the flight rights on Indian side be utilized before creating new bilateral agreement, China-India service capacity was limited to 42 weekly on Chinese side, plus what’s on Air India. It is indeed very glad to see a new player in the field.

Also, it should be noted that both routes applied by 6E (which they will both operate exclusively) are shorter than those going to Turkey, so they don’t even need to send in A320neo series anyways.

Didn’t Spice fly DEL-China (I think CAN) and the flight failed. I always thought China was tough because of Chinese carriers low fares.

Indeed. SG flew DEL-CAN. China is always going to be difficult because the government funds the great majority of its mushrooming airlines, which in turn dump capacity and charge ridiculously low fares.
In grieving remembrance of the thousands of people who lost their lives on ET-AVJ, PK-LQP, XA-UHZ, S2-AGU, CP-2933, SU-GCC, EI-ETJ, D-AIPX, PK-AXC, 9M-MRD, VT-AXV and above all 9M-MRO, besides many more. Your deaths are not in vain. Safety first, always.
 
voxkel
Posts: 120
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:17 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:09 am

audian wrote:
Does anyone know if AI non stop from DEL-DFW on charts anytime soon?

I see AI has closed down BOM-JFK from June freeing up 773's. Is this an indication that they are planning to deploy it on a new route to USA?


I think they decided to free up this 77W to deploy on BOM-LHR to fill in lost 9W capacity. Might as well considering AI would have zero chance surviving versus DL on the route.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:21 am

voxkel wrote:
audian wrote:
Does anyone know if AI non stop from DEL-DFW on charts anytime soon?

I see AI has closed down BOM-JFK from June freeing up 773's. Is this an indication that they are planning to deploy it on a new route to USA?


I think they decided to free up this 77W to deploy on BOM-LHR to fill in lost 9W capacity. Might as well considering AI would have zero chance surviving versus DL on the route.


Yup they needed the 77W for BOM-LHR. Plus AI should never even have started it. They should stick to their DEL hub and offer key O&D routes like BOM/BLR-LHR from other markets. That is it. Now why their other 77W and 787 are still not flying is crazy to me. This was the time ASI could justify the ROI of repairs. But then again the AI game is tiring to even follow. Once had hope that AI could turn around. But AI will always be AI. Just good enough to justify flying but never good enough to pay good money to fly (or to make a profit)
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1347
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:27 am

voxkel wrote:
audian wrote:
Does anyone know if AI non stop from DEL-DFW on charts anytime soon?

I see AI has closed down BOM-JFK from June freeing up 773's. Is this an indication that they are planning to deploy it on a new route to USA?


I think they decided to free up this 77W to deploy on BOM-LHR to fill in lost 9W capacity. Might as well considering AI would have zero chance surviving versus DL on the route.


Regardless of whether DL is in the market for that route, there are many that would would prefer to use a 1-stop than fly a non-stop Air India. Why?

1. Avoid dirty toilets.
2. Avoid the hellhole if there is IRROPS
3. Avoid the possibility of bedbugs
5. Avoid the chance of the IFE not working

To Air India's credit, it does have some good points such as the ones below but unfortunately, not good enough to offset the issues described above.
1. Flight attendants who would be far more understanding, homely, and sympathetic (especially with kids and parents) than Western attendants ever would/could.
2. Tasty Indian food.
 
binayak
Posts: 953
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Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 3:07 am

CaliguyNYC wrote:
But sadly Vistara didn't put them in the game. They seem to be sitting on the sidelines taking the scraps the GOI will give them (and not even complain). So I guess we can only blame Vistara.


Not exactly. Given the history of Indian carriers with WBs, Vistara needs to take every decision with caution. They will fly the above discussed routes maybe not today but they will. Remember Mumbai will soon have a second airport and after 5 years, this slot issue will be gone for good. But a decision today by Vistara taken in a hash that too regarding inducting WBs can lead to the same fate of jet.
TBH still not all 9W slots at BOM are occupied.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 3:50 am

binayak wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
But sadly Vistara didn't put them in the game. They seem to be sitting on the sidelines taking the scraps the GOI will give them (and not even complain). So I guess we can only blame Vistara.


Not exactly. Given the history of Indian carriers with WBs, Vistara needs to take every decision with caution. They will fly the above discussed routes maybe not today but they will. Remember Mumbai will soon have a second airport and after 5 years, this slot issue will be gone for good. But a decision today by Vistara taken in a hash that too regarding inducting WBs can lead to the same fate of jet.
TBH still not all 9W slots at BOM are occupied.


I’m all for caution but Vistara/Tata looked at buying Jet and AI, they should have some idea. Plus these are ready made tried and true routes (BOM-HKG/LHR). Should be right up their alley. I just don’t buy that Vistara is being cautious and prudent but Spice signed leases for so many planes as quickly as possible. But oh well it is what it is and yes Vistara and other airlines will emerge.
 
B1168
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:26 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 4:28 am

VTCIE wrote:
CaliguyNYC wrote:
B1168 wrote:
It is indeed true that the collapse of Jet Airways offered relief for the rest of the players. See, less competition, better yield, more incentive for expansion.

Air India is still in a hard time (alike how Jet Airways had been prior to its collapse), which is why their China service was very limited. Since India insisted that 80% of the flight rights on Indian side be utilized before creating new bilateral agreement, China-India service capacity was limited to 42 weekly on Chinese side, plus what’s on Air India. It is indeed very glad to see a new player in the field.

Also, it should be noted that both routes applied by 6E (which they will both operate exclusively) are shorter than those going to Turkey, so they don’t even need to send in A320neo series anyways.

Didn’t Spice fly DEL-China (I think CAN) and the flight failed. I always thought China was tough because of Chinese carriers low fares.

Indeed. SG flew DEL-CAN. China is always going to be difficult because the government funds the great majority of its mushrooming airlines, which in turn dump capacity and charge ridiculously low fares.


That shall be very much true for Hainan Airlines(flying 2nd tier city routes for subsidies), partially true for Air China (serving GRU/HVA/Panama City for political purposes), and relatively less true for China Eastern/southern along with their subsidiaries. Note that subsidies from 2nd tier cities doesn’t apply to Chinese carriers only, so UA’s XIY/HGH/CTU service all (used to) receive subsidies. I can’t say for sure that the government did not subsidize the main airlines in ways other than route subsidies, but I think high fares on domestic routes (i.e. up to 2500 rmb for 4 hour domestic in summer, sufficient for round trip Europe/Australia in low season)
India and China are both markets growing at fairly fast rates, and it will not surprise me if things that prevented Spice from working may have just gone.
However, it is worth noting that Chinese prefer Chinese airlines very much, so I think 6E flying routes they operate exclusively is very necessary and important.
 
devmapper
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:15 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 6:39 am

edealinfo wrote:
voxkel wrote:
audian wrote:
Does anyone know if AI non stop from DEL-DFW on charts anytime soon?

I see AI has closed down BOM-JFK from June freeing up 773's. Is this an indication that they are planning to deploy it on a new route to USA?


I think they decided to free up this 77W to deploy on BOM-LHR to fill in lost 9W capacity. Might as well considering AI would have zero chance surviving versus DL on the route.


Regardless of whether DL is in the market for that route, there are many that would would prefer to use a 1-stop than fly a non-stop Air India. Why?

1. Avoid dirty toilets.
2. Avoid the hellhole if there is IRROPS
3. Avoid the possibility of bedbugs
5. Avoid the chance of the IFE not working

To Air India's credit, it does have some good points such as the ones below but unfortunately, not good enough to offset the issues described above.
1. Flight attendants who would be far more understanding, homely, and sympathetic (especially with kids and parents) than Western attendants ever would/could.
2. Tasty Indian food.


As an AI-apologist, I think that the absence of common sense professional management is holding back AI and putting it at risk of losing out on International routes post 9W's collapse. For instance, every airline plans for spares, AI sadly didn't. Every competent airline plans to refresh and reconfigure the interiors every 6 years (sometimes even faster), AI still has the same old seats and IFE equipment that was originally fitted. I hope the absence of an India based competitor to medium and long haul routes makes AI a slightly more attractive option for investors with professional airline experience when the new political masters take office and try to divest it again. It would be interesting to have a look at the books end of June.

Re: DEL-DFW, that route can only be flown by AI's 77L, which is currently being used on the DEL-SFO route. But availability of frames isn't the only thing that worries me about that route. Most of the people spending big bucks in the DFW metro area are heavily invested in Oneworld (for obvious reasons) and I don't think there are sufficient numbers of people able to pay the premiums for a non-stop to DEL. That is not to say that DFW area does not have a large addressable market for AI, it's just that the yields do not look promising for what is essentially a west-bound ULH flight. Plus ORD (another large Oneworld market) is there right on the flight path.

And before anyone chimes in here with IAH as an option, I've lived in Houston, there isn't a large enough addressable market in IAH for AI without UA codeshare. AI would increase frequencies on DEL-IAD, and start DEL-LAX and DEL-SEA before DEL-IAH has even a snowball's chance in hell of becoming a reality.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7069
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 10:43 am

devmapper wrote:
I think that the absence of common sense professional management is holding back AI and putting it at risk of losing out on International routes post 9W's collapse.


I don't think AI will ever get one. New Lohani is a declawed babu (retired bureaucrat), no active babu(bureaucrat) is going to jump on his requests. His performance has been lacklustre at best. I think he is playing a ceremonial role until AI is shut down.

The goal is to spice up Spice, AI is just going thru the motions of first refusal rights. It is not trying to capture the market. Meanwhile, the media will be writing news about most slots going to Air India.
 
edealinfo
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Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:53 am

dtw2hyd wrote:
devmapper wrote:
I think that the absence of common sense professional management is holding back AI and putting it at risk of losing out on International routes post 9W's collapse.


I don't think AI will ever get one. New Lohani is a declawed babu (retired bureaucrat), no active babu(bureaucrat) is going to jump on his requests. His performance has been lacklustre at best. I think he is playing a ceremonial role until AI is shut down.

The goal is to spice up Spice, AI is just going thru the motions of first refusal rights. It is not trying to capture the market. Meanwhile, the media will be writing news about most slots going to Air India.


The Government is prepping up Air India for sale by giving them the preferred slots. Maybe, Vistara will bite this time around. Indigo shouldn't be allowed to bid because they have over a 50% market share. SpiceJet won't have the cash since they over-extended themselves getting 40 planes in as many days. This could be a sale designed for Vistara, in my opinion, and will liabilities being hived off and a chance to get 100% shares,AI might find the buyer of choice.
 
hohd
Posts: 749
Joined: Sat May 17, 2008 1:03 am

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:30 pm

Everyone is assuming that DL's JFK-BOM flight will be successful, but if Pak airspace is still restricted and US air carriers avoiding Iranian air space, right from the start, DL's BOM-JFK flight have to stop somewhere enroute (in Europe or Middle East), putting them at a disadvantage. However AI does not have that problem as it goes through Iran (and W. Pakistan) and is now nicely operating BOM-EWR non stop so perhaps AI should rethink BOM-JFK, especially when AI's DEL-JFK flight is forced to stop somewhere.
 
avier
Posts: 856
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:49 pm

Air India seeks nod for Rs 2,400 crore loan from NSSF
Air India has sought the government's approval to borrow Rs 2,400 crore from National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), a pool of small savings from households, to meet its working capital requirements.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/air-india-seeks-nod-for-rs-2400-crore-loan-from-nssf/articleshow/69556523.cms

Shameless airline, will go begging anywhere and everywhere and won't bother even returning what they take. After all govt. stands as guarantor. They might probably take one more loan then to pay this off.
 
binayak
Posts: 953
Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:00 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 1:52 pm

hohd wrote:
Everyone is assuming that DL's JFK-BOM flight will be successful, but if Pak airspace is still restricted and US air carriers avoiding Iranian air space, right from the start, DL's BOM-JFK flight have to stop somewhere enroute (in Europe or Middle East), putting them at a disadvantage. However AI does not have that problem as it goes through Iran (and W. Pakistan) and is now nicely operating BOM-EWR non stop so perhaps AI should rethink BOM-JFK, especially when AI's DEL-JFK flight is forced to stop somewhere.


The 77L will still make it non stop.
The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today
 
Planes4you
Posts: 269
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:35 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:32 pm

Doesn’t air India have 3 77Ls? If they don’t have enough why lease some from Etihad or buy them from Etihad
 
VTORD
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:32 pm

avier wrote:
to borrow Rs 2,400 crore from National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), a pool of small savings from households

At this point it is not even funny enough to say "irony died a painful death....." What a waste!! :banghead:
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7069
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:37 pm

avier wrote:
Air India seeks nod for Rs 2,400 crore loan from NSSF
Air India has sought the government's approval to borrow Rs 2,400 crore from National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), a pool of small savings from households, to meet its working capital requirements.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/air-india-seeks-nod-for-rs-2400-crore-loan-from-nssf/articleshow/69556523.cms

Shameless airline, will go begging anywhere and everywhere and won't bother even returning what they take. After all govt. stands as guarantor. They might probably take one more loan then to pay this off.


Not the first time, AI took $180 Million from NSSF for VT-ALV/W oven refit.
 
VTORD
Posts: 512
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:38 pm

Planes4you wrote:
Doesn’t air India have 3 77Ls? If they don’t have enough why lease some from Etihad or buy them from Etihad

All 3 are doing 9 x Weekly SFO Duty. Sometimes I think AI sends them to IAD as well leaving AI183/184 to the 77W but long story short they are all occupied.

5 of EY's parked 77Ls are actually ex-AI birds that EY got stuck with during the 9W stake deal. The configs are close but that would only make sense if AI had a route strategy. With 17 of their own birds (mix of WB & NB) parked with seemingly no operational impact, why take on more? Again, just a waste of an airline.
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 17523
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:40 pm

avier wrote:
Air India seeks nod for Rs 2,400 crore loan from NSSF
Air India has sought the government's approval to borrow Rs 2,400 crore from National Small Savings Fund (NSSF), a pool of small savings from households, to meet its working capital requirements.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/air-india-seeks-nod-for-rs-2400-crore-loan-from-nssf/articleshow/69556523.cms

Shameless airline, will go begging anywhere and everywhere and won't bother even returning what they take. After all govt. stands as guarantor. They might probably take one more loan then to pay this off.

OMG. They cannot stop spending other people's money.

How are they not making a good profit in this environment? Fares are still elevated. International fares will be elevated longer thanks to AI getting the Lion's share of 9W rights and limited bilaterals have raised fares.

Ugh... Why am I even slightly surprised.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1030
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:44 pm

hohd wrote:
Everyone is assuming that DL's JFK-BOM flight will be successful, but if Pak airspace is still restricted and US air carriers avoiding Iranian air space, right from the start, DL's BOM-JFK flight have to stop somewhere enroute (in Europe or Middle East), putting them at a disadvantage. However AI does not have that problem as it goes through Iran (and W. Pakistan) and is now nicely operating BOM-EWR non stop so perhaps AI should rethink BOM-JFK, especially when AI's DEL-JFK flight is forced to stop somewhere.


I don't think airspace closure should be a strategy for launching a route. AI has a DEL hub and should stick to that (for the most part). They already serve BOM-EWR. So business traffic willing to fly AI have an option to reach Manhattan. They are all set. As an aside, I do believe AI should be on EWR-BOM. It is a huge VFR route which is AI's specialty.

To the other question on what holds AI back. I don't know if it is senior management. As a kid, AI was a decent enough airline to fly. Their employees were true professionals and had pride in the airline. My issue today is, IMHO, the current employees don't seem to care. How can the crew operating a flight be ok with a dirty aircraft? AI allocates more than necessary for food, cleaning, repairs, etc. Yes their aircraft have become the stuff of jokes. Very sad IMHO. Given no Indian airline can seem to get their act together for international long haul like the Chinese carriers have, I have come to accept the GOI's involvement in AI. At least they have connected DEL to a fair number of cities. In the end India benefits from AI's flights to Australia, Israel, MAD, CPH, ARN, plus all the US nonstops. We can quibble if the cost is justified, but at least there is some payoff on this govt waste. That said, I really wish AI could just refresh their 777's. Take out first, add a high density J (like Are Lingus) and a premium economy section. Also add 20 more English movies. I fly Air Europa MAD-JFK (love their late afternoon departure). Not the best inflight experience in J but at least their new lie flat seats are good enough. AI has better food for sure even if their presentation is not luxurious. But I can give a pass on that. Btw why doesn't AI serve their food in J from a trolly a la carte (like they do in F). Turkish does this in J, and I think it is an easy way to upgrade their J service. Also it fits for Indian food perfectly.
 
COEWR787
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:35 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:51 pm

binayak wrote:
hohd wrote:
Everyone is assuming that DL's JFK-BOM flight will be successful, but if Pak airspace is still restricted and US air carriers avoiding Iranian air space, right from the start, DL's BOM-JFK flight have to stop somewhere enroute (in Europe or Middle East), putting them at a disadvantage. However AI does not have that problem as it goes through Iran (and W. Pakistan) and is now nicely operating BOM-EWR non stop so perhaps AI should rethink BOM-JFK, especially when AI's DEL-JFK flight is forced to stop somewhere.


The 77L will still make it non stop.


UA 49 makes it non stop from BOM to EWR using a 77W while avoiding Pakistan and Iran everyday these days.
 
avier
Posts: 856
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 2:59 pm

lightsaber wrote:
OMG. They cannot stop spending other people's money.
How are they not making a good profit in this environment? Fares are still elevated. International fares will be elevated longer thanks to AI getting the Lion's share of 9W rights and limited bilaterals have raised fares.


AI is structured in a way where they never make any money even in the best of times. At most a breakeven operating margin, probably once in the last decade, but nothing more than that.
When professionally run airlines are struggling to have decent margins, what can one expect from one of the most inefficient and loss making company amongst the public sector units and also of the country.
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1347
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 6:51 pm

avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
OMG. They cannot stop spending other people's money.
How are they not making a good profit in this environment? Fares are still elevated. International fares will be elevated longer thanks to AI getting the Lion's share of 9W rights and limited bilaterals have raised fares.


AI is structured in a way where they never make any money even in the best of times. At most a breakeven operating margin, probably once in the last decade, but nothing more than that.
When professionally run airlines are struggling to have decent margins, what can one expect from one of the most inefficient and loss making company amongst the public sector units and also of the country.


Hasn’t Air India Express made money for several years? What differentiates it from its parent? Couldn’t the Government sell off AIX Spears from its parent? At least that one may find buyers
 
airboss787
Posts: 57
Joined: Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:39 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 10:20 pm

COEWR787 wrote:
binayak wrote:
hohd wrote:
Everyone is assuming that DL's JFK-BOM flight will be successful, but if Pak airspace is still restricted and US air carriers avoiding Iranian air space, right from the start, DL's BOM-JFK flight have to stop somewhere enroute (in Europe or Middle East), putting them at a disadvantage. However AI does not have that problem as it goes through Iran (and W. Pakistan) and is now nicely operating BOM-EWR non stop so perhaps AI should rethink BOM-JFK, especially when AI's DEL-JFK flight is forced to stop somewhere.


The 77L will still make it non stop.


UA 49 makes it non stop from BOM to EWR using a 77W while avoiding Pakistan and Iran everyday these days.


Half true. It uses the southern airspace of Pakistan that was opened near Karachi and it certainly flies over Iran. It was these 2 things that made the flight go nonstop. Otherwise, it is a stop in MUC, FRA or BGR.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 9#20ae1698
Star Alliance Gold
 
edealinfo
Posts: 1347
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:06 pm

Just yesterday, I had mentioned that IRROPS on Air India is a hellhole. For those who claim that it is merely opinion, here is the proof of validation of my assertion
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.timesofi ... 567999.cms
 
devmapper
Posts: 217
Joined: Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:15 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Wed May 29, 2019 11:38 pm

edealinfo wrote:
avier wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
OMG. They cannot stop spending other people's money.
How are they not making a good profit in this environment? Fares are still elevated. International fares will be elevated longer thanks to AI getting the Lion's share of 9W rights and limited bilaterals have raised fares.


AI is structured in a way where they never make any money even in the best of times. At most a breakeven operating margin, probably once in the last decade, but nothing more than that.
When professionally run airlines are struggling to have decent margins, what can one expect from one of the most inefficient and loss making company amongst the public sector units and also of the country.


Hasn’t Air India Express made money for several years? What differentiates it from its parent? Couldn’t the Government sell off AIX Spears from its parent? At least that one may find buyers


IX leases about 20-25 737's and utilizes multiple point-to-point flights to keep average utilization of its frames above 12 hours a day. Plus, being a relatively new entity, it does not have any significant pension obligations. It also helps that maintenance is outsourced to operators in the Gulf. AI on the other hand, foolishly bought 50 widebody jets (15 77W, 8 77L and 27 788) which it had to pay upfront for, especially considering AI has never been a large enough airline to be able to justify such a large fleet. Essentially, AI spent all its money and borrowed heavily to buy the frames, which left nothing to pay for the maintenance contracts and spares. That triggered another round of borrowing to meet its operational expenses. All this, in the 2000's when air travel was generally slow due to the terrorism and financial crises, means that AI today has such a large debt burden, it probably pays more to service the debt than to actually run itself. We'll know if this is true once the books are published end of June. Add to this the debt and the problems it inherited from absorbing IC along with its aging fleet, and its inability to borrow money from the international market with lower financing costs, alongside the GOI's insistence that it pay the interest to the banks first, inevitably leads to a situation where AI cannot meet its obligations from internal accruals. Consider this, why has AI, with all its problems, never been in the news for not paying back its loans, while IT and 9W went under?

The last GOI thought they could sell off AI as is, but they were proven wrong. The new GOI is trying to do split the airline into a "good" airline and a "bad" airline and sell it in parts. I hope they succeed, because anyone buying AI has a lot of working paring down the fleet (there aren't enough current and potential destinations to ever need 27 788s) and planning for the future (the 15 77Ws that could form the backbone for a very profitable North American market are nearly 10 years old on average, they'll need replacement in 2 years and resale values will not be good for these frames). They need to strategically cut their losses in the domestic market, and look to optimize arrival and departure banks to better facilitate connecting via DEL.
 
COEWR787
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:35 pm

Re: Indian Aviation Thread - May 2019

Thu May 30, 2019 12:25 am

airboss787 wrote:
COEWR787 wrote:
binayak wrote:

The 77L will still make it non stop.


UA 49 makes it non stop from BOM to EWR using a 77W while avoiding Pakistan and Iran everyday these days.


Half true. It uses the southern airspace of Pakistan that was opened near Karachi and it certainly flies over Iran. It was these 2 things that made the flight go nonstop. Otherwise, it is a stop in MUC, FRA or BGR.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 9#20ae1698

Interesting. Didn't realize that. Thanks.
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