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Spetsnaz55
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:32 pm

Azerbaijan cancels their 8 plane Max order
 
Absynth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:40 pm

hivue wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Reading this article, assuming that it is a true representation of what happened around MCAS, one could believe that rank amateurs are working at Boeing on safety critical issues.


On the contrary, this information seems to answer one of the great mysteries surrounding these events: why presumably talented and professional engineers would design an aircraft safety system with a built-in single point failure mode. The answer is -- they didn't. But when the problem the system was intended to solve expanded from the strictly high G environment to a larger part of the envelope, the high G detection part had to go leaving only AoA. Then the great bugaboo of any large scale project struck: lack of communication.

So many poster here seem to want either to tag the flight crews with total inability to fly an airplane or to tag Boeing with purposeful intent to cold bloodedly murder more than 300 people. What everyone should be doing instead is trying to figure out exactly what happened. It's not likely we yet have all the information to do that.


It would seem Systems Engineering is alien to Boeing from that NYT article. Which I find hard to believe. If it was a total design process breakdown I wouldn't step into an 777x or 797 for the life of me.

But again, a company like Boeing tossing their SE methodology out of the window in a toxic mix of competitive panic and cost-cutting measures to please stockholders? - I don't buy it.

Some people at crucial places in the project team were fully aware of the design changes and it's implications and decided against everything that would endanger a) time to market b) cost c) grandfathering

You don't just 'forget' MTBF and incurred damage of a single sensor input while increasing authority and severity at the same time. There was no sequence of events there was a main, single event and that was expanding the role of MCAS to stall avoidance.

Criminal investigation is in full swing and everybody involved is acting like they were an intern that just did what they had to do on their tiny little island. SE was formalized decades ago for these type of projects and somehow Boeing doesn't feel the need to use it?

Right.
Last edited by Absynth on Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bond787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:48 pm

Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Azerbaijan cancels their 8 plane Max order


Initial report was incorrect. Their 10 737 Max order has been postponed instead of being cancelled.

https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SL8N23A42V
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:59 pm

Interested wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:
speedking wrote:

I'm 100% sure the Boeing engineers could build a best plane in the world. Those guys went to the moon already 40 years ago. The problem is that the flying public expects to fly on a dime. No wonder planes crash. That's what you get with this money.


Boeing is pulling in mountains of cash. This isn't a shortage of money. They are, though, spending a lot of that cash on cutting their workforce, share dividends, bonuses for executives and share buy backs.


The Boeing CEO earnt 23.4M dollars in the last 12 months

No wonder he doesn't want to resign


They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:00 pm

shmerik wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
hivue wrote:

On the contrary, this information seems to answer one of the great mysteries surrounding these events: why presumably talented and professional engineers would design an aircraft safety system with a built-in single point failure mode. The answer is -- they didn't. But when the problem the system was intended to solve expanded from the strictly high G environment to a larger part of the envelope, the high G detection part had to go leaving only AoA. Then the great bugaboo of any large scale project struck: lack of communication.

So many poster here seem to want either to tag the flight crews with total inability to fly an airplane or to tag Boeing with purposeful intent to cold bloodedly murder more than 300 people. What everyone should be doing instead is trying to figure out exactly what happened. It's not likely we yet have all the information to do that.


Somebody or a group of persons decided, that one sensor was enough, there is undeniable proof for it, there was only one sensor used. It is very simple to point to miscommunication. But the main point is, such a system, like the design department at Boeing, should be build exactly around procedures to minimize miscommunication.
So there are either rank amateurs designing the systems, or there are rank amateurs called managers at Boeing, all the way to the highest level. Take your pick.


Yep, this is why I'm not buying the story that it was multiple groups within Boeing that "accidentally" made changes that together added up to the disastrous MCAS that is on the MAX in it's final state.

Every design decision is explicitly written out in requirements documents, and the requirements in all of the systems are generally kept in matrices that show how each requirement relates to each other so that teams can see when changes happen and review the downstream effects. If Boeing was acting in good faith and genuinely thought that this was good design, they would be able to point directly to the logic that lead to that conclusion in all of the design documents and emails that would have been circulating during the project.

This isn't an open-source software project where some guy across the globe can merge a breaking change that no one sees, there's a documentation trail for every choice made in a safety critical design process.

No smoking gun yet, but the NYT report would probably test positive for gun shot residue.

Ray
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:06 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
RickNRoll wrote:

Boeing is pulling in mountains of cash. This isn't a shortage of money. They are, though, spending a lot of that cash on cutting their workforce, share dividends, bonuses for executives and share buy backs.


The Boeing CEO earnt 23.4M dollars in the last 12 months

No wonder he doesn't want to resign


They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.


In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:08 pm

Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:

The Boeing CEO earnt 23.4M dollars in the last 12 months

No wonder he doesn't want to resign


They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.


In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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hilram
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:27 pm

speedking wrote:
[
I'm 100% sure the Boeing engineers could build a best plane in the world. Those guys went to the moon already 40 years ago. The problem is that the flying public expects to fly on a dime. No wonder planes crash. That's what you get with this money.

"Boeing" did not go to the Moon 40 years ago.
NASA did, with the help of Boeing, Norht Amerian Aviation, Douglas Aircraft Company, IBM, and others.

But of course, Boeing engineers stand for Excellence.

The current leadership however, with their skewed priorites, their re-organization efforts, their outsourcing and their Share Buy-backs over innovation, have failed to impress.
Flown on: A319, 320, 321, 332, 333, 343 | B732, 734, 735, 736, 73G, 738, 743, 744, 772, 77W | CRJ9 | BAe-146 | DHC-6, 7, 8 | F50 | E195 | MD DC-9 41, MD-82, MD-87
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:27 pm

planecane wrote:
many321 wrote:
Interested wrote:

I guess the only way we find out if anything else is messed up is when something else crashes?

And if the crashes aren't happening we have to assume it's all ok?

I'm happy enough to trust their existing planes (apart from Max of course). But would be worried about any new ones.

Dreamliners have been flying long enough now safely not to worry about - haven't they?


I'd be looking at the 777x closely. I hope we don't have any surprises when it enters into service.

777X is a completely different animal. It is full FBW. Kludges aren't needed to make it fly like the current models.
It is the one integrated system and it has been flying safely for many years using that system. That is one of the reasons flight control moved to FBW in the first place.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:33 pm

Jouhou wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Icelandair to lay off 24 pilots on MAX grounding; cancels hiring plans


Source

So 24 + 21 pilots can search for a new carrier. This is kind of worrying, this means that Icelandair doesn't think the MAX will return to the air within a reasonable time, otherwise you don't lay off pilots which are hard to come by and you have invested in their training on the MAX.

This decision was made as it is expected that the suspension of the 737 MAX aircraft will last longer than anticipated and we have made changes to our flight schedule until Sept. 15 to reflect that,”


Either they aren't planning to take the aircraft at all or they have to be pretty arrogant to think those pilots will just come crawling back after they've proven their selves to be an unreliable employer.


15th of September would mean, that the frames miss high season.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:34 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.


In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......

And would anyone else do things better? Or willing to jump into this... bubble bath, where the two options are failing and failing miserably?
Stepping down when things start settling is reasonable, running away from dumpster fire in full rage will only make things worse
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:37 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
hivue wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Reading this article, assuming that it is a true representation of what happened around MCAS, one could believe that rank amateurs are working at Boeing on safety critical issues.


On the contrary, this information seems to answer one of the great mysteries surrounding these events: why presumably talented and professional engineers would design an aircraft safety system with a built-in single point failure mode. The answer is -- they didn't. But when the problem the system was intended to solve expanded from the strictly high G environment to a larger part of the envelope, the high G detection part had to go leaving only AoA. Then the great bugaboo of any large scale project struck: lack of communication.

So many poster here seem to want either to tag the flight crews with total inability to fly an airplane or to tag Boeing with purposeful intent to cold bloodedly murder more than 300 people. What everyone should be doing instead is trying to figure out exactly what happened. It's not likely we yet have all the information to do that.


Somebody or a group of persons decided, that one sensor was enough, there is undeniable proof for it, there was only one sensor used. It is very simple to point to miscommunication. But the main point is, such a system, like the design department at Boeing, should be build exactly around procedures to minimize miscommunication.
So there are either rank amateurs designing the systems, or there are rank amateurs called managers at Boeing, all the way to the highest level. Take your pick.
This is where management at the top becomes responsible. They have to ensure the lines of communication are there. Was there a layer of management ripped out to save costs that was essential?
 
Ertro
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:37 pm

shmerik wrote:
Yep, this is why I'm not buying the story that it was multiple groups within Boeing that "accidentally" made changes that together added up to the disastrous MCAS that is on the MAX in it's final state.

Every design decision is explicitly written out in requirements documents, and the requirements in all of the systems are generally kept in matrices that show how each requirement relates to each other so that teams can see when changes happen and review the downstream effects. If Boeing was acting in good faith and genuinely thought that this was good design, they would be able to point directly to the logic that lead to that conclusion in all of the design documents and emails that would have been circulating during the project.

This isn't an open-source software project where some guy across the globe can merge a breaking change that no one sees, there's a documentation trail for every choice made in a safety critical design process.


Do you think there exists some requirement document reviewed by tens of brightest people Boeing has that says that out from the 2 AoA sensors going into the box only 1 must be used for MCAS function and not 2?

It is extremely easy to leave some design decision that is never explicitly made unspecified or vague leaving room for somebody on the upper level design team thinking that it must be 2 as anything else is pure madness while some subcontractor company making the implementation reads the requirement not specifying that and implements it as 1 without thinking much of it. This sort of thing happens every day in SW design all over the world.

And don't we have pretty solid proof about confusion when some departments think that AoA disagree indicator is optional and some think it is standard equipment.
Last edited by Ertro on Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:00 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:38 pm

kalvado wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:

In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......

And would anyone else do things better? Or willing to jump into this... bubble bath, where the two options are failing and failing miserably?
Stepping down when things start settling is reasonable, running away from dumpster fire in full rage will only make things worse


A CEO - of any organization - is hardly the single leader you make him out to be. In reality, it is a team of people. Firing the CEO is highly symbolic, I agree, but sometimes there needs to be a symbol. And in my view, part of the compensation package is to cover this "risk".
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:49 pm

RickNRoll wrote:
planecane wrote:
777X is a completely different animal. It is full FBW. Kludges aren't needed to make it fly like the current models.
It is the one integrated system and it has been flying safely for many years using that system. That is one of the reasons flight control moved to FBW in the first place.

Right. The 737 line can't continue to ignore the 3 last decades of progress in flight control system.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 9:50 pm

Dennis Muilenburg on CNBC: 737MAX to be in the air “by the end of the year.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -says.html

In other news: Boeing and the FAA are now stating that NG and MAX aircraft may have faulty wing parts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews ... ontext=amp
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
Chemist
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 10:00 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.


In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......


If I were making $24M/year, I'd be willing to take the risk of needing to symbolically resign. He should as well.
 
snowkarl
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Mon Jun 03, 2019 11:52 pm

Chemist wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:

In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......


If I were making $24M/year, I'd be willing to take the risk of needing to symbolically resign. He should as well.


He wasn't even in charge when the full Max plans and blueprints were being approved. Him resigning would be meaningless and would only serve to ensure that the next CEO's tenure would also be tarnished by this crisis.

They will keep him until this mess has been resolved and the planes are back in the air, and the company making records profits for the new CEO to swoop in and raise the stock even further. His pay is honestly irrelevant.

I do however think this has shown the dangers of the duopoly in the airline business and I think it would be good, not only for pilots and customers worldwide, but Boeing and Airbus also, if China or someone else launched a competitor to finally force the planes to become innovative again, rather than relying on 60+ year old frames with minor adjustments for maximum profits. Boeing and Airbus have recently proved they can further effectivize their planes but are afraid to do so because they'll be forced to invest into research and new frames, but it is obviously beneficial to no one but their shareholders.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:58 am

snowkarl wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......


If I were making $24M/year, I'd be willing to take the risk of needing to symbolically resign. He should as well.


He wasn't even in charge when the full Max plans and blueprints were being approved. Him resigning would be meaningless and would only serve to ensure that the next CEO's tenure would also be tarnished by this crisis.

They will keep him until this mess has been resolved and the planes are back in the air, and the company making records profits for the new CEO to swoop in and raise the stock even further. His pay is honestly irrelevant.

I do however think this has shown the dangers of the duopoly in the airline business and I think it would be good, not only for pilots and customers worldwide, but Boeing and Airbus also, if China or someone else launched a competitor to finally force the planes to become innovative again, rather than relying on 60+ year old frames with minor adjustments for maximum profits. Boeing and Airbus have recently proved they can further effectivize their planes but are afraid to do so because they'll be forced to invest into research and new frames, but it is obviously beneficial to no one but their shareholders.


We've seen the guy before the Max fiasco be one of the most publicly cut throat CEOs out there. As far as symbolism goes, he's not the kind of figure Boeing wants representing them right now.
情報
 
ubeema
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:49 am

Firing Muilenburg will be counterintuitive at this point strategically speaking (not that I care for the guy one bit):
1) BOD/shareholders working hard to protect BA stock from deteriorating. So far it has held up pretty good given the circumstances, but they can’t bet on it for the long haul. Cutting the head of the snake now would probably set off panic in worldwide markets. Knowing they have dry days ahead they are hedging their losses

2) BA legal strategy would be jeopardized. There is no come back from “making a safe plane safer”. They could still be saved by DOJ investigation if it turns up no criminal wrongdoing.

3) His days are counted anyways, and hopefully over whenever the situation is stabilized. Even if he wanted to step down voluntarily, he will be enticed to stay on to clean up the mess he has created (boards use tactics such as withholding part or all of severance package for example if he doesn’t play ball)

4) There is no way in hell a high performing replacement CEO walk in this mess. The seat will be too hot.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:38 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Dennis Muilenburg on CNBC: 737MAX to be in the air “by the end of the year.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.c ... -says.html

In other news: Boeing and the FAA are now stating that NG and MAX aircraft may have faulty wing parts.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.usnews ... ontext=amp




Nope, he say "should be...", which is rather negative IMHO. That is not much more than a "maybe, but I have no clue" type of reply.

Boeing CEO says troubled 737 Max jets should be flying by the end of the year
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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qf789
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:14 am

Azerbaijan Airlines has cancelled their order for 10 737MAX8 aircraft

http://newsinflight.com/2019/06/03/azer ... -1billion/
Forum Moderator
 
AirwayBill
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:51 am

So now the optimistic forecast is December 2019 for a possible re-entry in Service... in the US.

I think we can easily add - at least - a good 3 months logistics-wise to get things rolling. That means things will probably not get back to normal before March 2020. Again, in the US only, and given the lack of communication and the demands of worldwide aviation authorities, it could mean even more time in other parts of the world.

That's right. We're easily looking at a full lunar year grounding, and this will be devastating to Boeing to say the least. Remember people saying that the grounding was not justified, that the MAX would be back within 2 months time, that it was a non-issue, and that people forecasting anything worse were fearmongering?

I really hope there is a HUGE reform in Boeing management incoming, it is time to clear things up and show a clear will for a new start.
 
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Jouhou
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:15 am

AirwayBill wrote:
So now the optimistic forecast is December 2019 for a possible re-entry in Service... in the US.

I think we can easily add - at least - a good 3 months logistics-wise to get things rolling. That means things will probably not get back to normal before March 2020. Again, in the US only, and given the lack of communication and the demands of worldwide aviation authorities, it could mean even more time in other parts of the world.

That's right. We're easily looking at a full lunar year grounding, and this will be devastating to Boeing to say the least. Remember people saying that the grounding was not justified, that the MAX would be back within 2 months time, that it was a non-issue, and that people forecasting anything worse were fearmongering?

I really hope there is a HUGE reform in Boeing management incoming, it is time to clear things up and show a clear will for a new start.


They did just do a whole bunch of stock buy-backs. They can sell again to raise some funds. I'm totally OK with them being at $120 a share again so I can afford to buy a few shares.
情報
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:46 am

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

They should fire him, if he is responsible for good profits, he is also responsible for this spectacular cock-up. He should take his responsibility, just to put some confidence back into the company because he took his responsibility. Get the big bucks, you also got thrown out when it goes wrong.


In his interview today all he could say was the Max will be flying again by the end of the year

That's twice this week he's given that as his answer when asked when the plane will be in the air again


The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......


Way way more expensive than that

Nobody is completing orders in the meantime

Nobody is making new orders in the meantime

And I believe Max was accounting for 80 per cent of their order book

Their cashflow is going to be under immense pressure with hardly any money coming in

How can you sell and promote a plane that they can't even tell you when it will be safely flying again?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:56 am

Since the second crash there has been a steady decline in the share price and value of the company

I believe the company is already valued at more than 60 Billion US dollars less since that second crash

And looks like we aren't even halfway through the grounding yet

The cost cutting and penny pinching in the rollout of this plane will prove to be the most expensive mistake in aviation history when it's finally all over

They will learn where it hurts them the most
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:35 am

Dutchy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

The end of the year? Another 6 months of grounding and roughly 6bn in damages to Boeing? He should resign......

And would anyone else do things better? Or willing to jump into this... bubble bath, where the two options are failing and failing miserably?
Stepping down when things start settling is reasonable, running away from dumpster fire in full rage will only make things worse


A CEO - of any organization - is hardly the single leader you make him out to be. In reality, it is a team of people. Firing the CEO is highly symbolic, I agree, but sometimes there needs to be a symbol. And in my view, part of the compensation package is to cover this "risk".


The CEO is responsible for the system, how a company works, that is why he gets the big bucks. The only strange thing at Boeing regarding the current CEO is, that he is still there. His priorities and directions must have been off. Perhaps the biggest advance in Boeing management, would be to remove them for Chikago and get them again near where the action is.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:43 am

shmerik wrote:
For a while now I've been thinking that the way MCAS was handled could be one of two options... either that somewhere along the line decisions were made intentionally to keep it low profile enough that it wouldn't require extra training, or that Boeing's internal org structure and processes have devolved to a point where they can no longer effectively coordinate on large scale operations like designing an aircraft.

With the articles coming out about multiple departments making incremental changes unknown to each other without knowing the full consequences it looks like they are claiming the latter of the two options. I'm not convinced, but it does raise the question that if we are to believe that everyone was acting in good faith then this brings into question the quality of any other product that they have worked on during the same time as MAX development and ever since then to the present day.

Is this an unfair assessment of the situation?


Nope, it is very fair assessment and is worse than I expected. I expected a trainee engineer somewhere doing very error-prone design, and that the thing somehow then escaped all the necessary checks. That would alone be very bad for aeronautics company.

But my God, first version was (almost?) properly done and then they decided to remove redundancy for unknown reason? Perhaps even to avoid scrutiny by FAA? Mind-boggling and indeed casts the shadow on everything else that was in development at that period.

I even imagine that if it can be proven that the redundancy was removed to avoid FAA scrutiny, that this could be stuff for criminal charges at some time.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:04 pm

planecane wrote:
many321 wrote:
I'd be looking at the 777x closely. I hope we don't have any surprises when it enters into service.

777X is a completely different animal. It is full FBW. Kludges aren't needed to make it fly like the current models.


That is not the point. The kludge of MCAS, and poorly executed one, happened only because the internal organization of designing safety critical parts in Boeing is obviously in tatters. In that environment anything can happen, including some nasty bugs in FBW aircraft software...
 
dkjoe
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:09 pm

Hi,

New user here. My background is software development, with special focus on safety critical systems (we design hardware and software solutions manned cranes, lifts, foresting machines etc.). I have wanted to jump into this topic for a while now, but I join now, as I feel the post from kalvado (thanks for the number) needs some perspective:

kalvado wrote:
And again, competing product datasheet shows 70k hours MTBF. 8 years is not an unreasonable lifetime for precision moving part exposed to elements and airstream...


MTBF is a dangerous term, as it is very easy to misunderstand. Try to take a look at the wiki page for MTBF or better yet, try the article at https://ftp.automationdirect.com/pub/Product%20Reliability%20and%20MTBF.pdf. A qoute from this article:

Example: Suppose 10 devices are tested for 500 hours. During the test 2 failures occur.
The estimate of the MTBF is:
MTBF= (10*500)/2 = 2,500 hours / failure.


2500 hours is a confusing number, when the actual testing used to reach this number, had 2 of 10 devices fail within 500 hours, so given 10 devices, we have to change one every 250 hours, which does not sound anything like 2500 hours! Another example - a Seagate Skyhawk survaillance harddrive (see https://www.seagate.com/www-content/datasheets/pdfs/skyhawk-3-5-hdd-DS1902-11-1902GB-en_GB.pdf) has a MTBF of 1,000,000 hours (or 114years), yet I don't think anyone would expect just a single of these hard drives to work in 15-20 year from now.

Another way of expressing the same number, is "failure rate". There is a 1-to-1 conversion between MTBF and failure rate, where failure rate says how many will fail within a certain period of time. Taking 70,000 hours MTBF (as mentioned by Kalvado), the failure rate after 8 years is 63% (see the formula in the pdf referenced above), that is that 63 of every 100 has failed within 8 years. So 70,000 h MTBF does not mean, that 1 single device fails in 8 years, but that 63 of 100 devices fails in 8 years.

If we look at the expected failure rate after 6 months (again using the MTBF to failure rate formula), then we get a failure rate of just shy of 6.1%, or to put it in another way, if 100 737MAX is flying for 6 months, 70,000 MTBF means that we by average should have seen 6 of 100 failed sensors! That is quite another number than 70,000 h MTBF leads you to believe. NOTE: If each aircraft has 2 sensors, then the correct number is of cause 12 of 200 failed sensors.

The failure rate and MTBF does not say how it has failed (it could be that most failures are non-critical with respect to MCAS) or take into account how the device is used (are it more exposed to external factors as ramp damage, bird strikes or maybe mounted in a way which makes it more exposed to failure).
 
xmp125a
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:18 pm

Ertro wrote:
It is extremely easy to leave some design decision that is never explicitly made unspecified or vague leaving room for somebody on the upper level design team thinking that it must be 2 as anything else is pure madness while some subcontractor company making the implementation reads the requirement not specifying that and implements it as 1 without thinking much of it. This sort of thing happens every day in SW design all over the world.


Can't you guys understand that embedded system programming and safety-critical system design are totally different beasts than programming an app or a software application for PC?

For crying out loud, if we take your reasoning, there would be daily explosions in chemical plants, refineries, and planes would fall of the sky weekly. As other posters pointed out, even systems engineering has its longstanding principles that apparently were seriously violated here, not to mention safety-critical system design,

Please DO NOT compare this to the SW development!
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:02 pm

Interested wrote:
The cost cutting and penny pinching in the rollout of this plane will prove to be the most expensive mistake in aviation history when it's finally all over


No surely not, that must have been the decision to build Concorde, adjusted for inflation must be more than this. but heck, we at least got the most beautiful plane out of that, this we've got nothing but trouble. :lol:
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:03 pm

xmp125a wrote:
planecane wrote:
many321 wrote:
I'd be looking at the 777x closely. I hope we don't have any surprises when it enters into service.

777X is a completely different animal. It is full FBW. Kludges aren't needed to make it fly like the current models.


That is not the point. The kludge of MCAS, and poorly executed one, happened only because the internal organization of designing safety critical parts in Boeing is obviously in tatters. In that environment anything can happen, including some nasty bugs in FBW aircraft software...

Two different programs. I'm sure they didn't put their best engineers on the "simple" re-engine project.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:10 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
The cost cutting and penny pinching in the rollout of this plane will prove to be the most expensive mistake in aviation history when it's finally all over


No surely not, that must have been the decision to build Concorde, adjusted for inflation must be more than this. but heck, we at least got the most beautiful plane out of that, this we've got nothing but trouble. :lol:


Where do you think the cost of the Max mistake will end up?

If this plane is grounded for a year and no orders paid or made in the meantime then the money lost must dwarf the amount of concordes that were expected to be made and sold each year

And that's assuming it's never grounded again because of its flaws. This might just be the start.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:14 pm

xmp125a wrote:
Ertro wrote:
It is extremely easy to leave some design decision that is never explicitly made unspecified or vague leaving room for somebody on the upper level design team thinking that it must be 2 as anything else is pure madness while some subcontractor company making the implementation reads the requirement not specifying that and implements it as 1 without thinking much of it. This sort of thing happens every day in SW design all over the world.


Can't you guys understand that embedded system programming and safety-critical system design are totally different beasts than programming an app or a software application for PC?

For crying out loud, if we take your reasoning, there would be daily explosions in chemical plants, refineries, and planes would fall of the sky weekly. As other posters pointed out, even systems engineering has its longstanding principles that apparently were seriously violated here, not to mention safety-critical system design,

Please DO NOT compare this to the SW development!

Yes, it was almost conceivable that if the MCAS V0.0 to MCAS V1.0 change was solely the rate of change of the trim command, it could have slipped through as a minor (not that a single sensor design could have been seen as in any way competent in the first place).

Now we are offered the possibility that the previously vaguely referred to aspect of the change 'to operate in a greater range of the envelope' seemingly involved a major change to the system concept and design it is inconceivable that this could have just slipped through. It seems the choices we have is that it is an abject and complete failure of the safety critical design processes or it was forced through by dictate. The 'elephant in the room' at several review meetings perhaps.

Either way, it can not be construed as the fault of some singular intern or low level engineer at Boeing or at a sub-contractor.

Ray
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:16 pm

Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
The cost cutting and penny pinching in the rollout of this plane will prove to be the most expensive mistake in aviation history when it's finally all over


No surely not, that must have been the decision to build Concorde, adjusted for inflation must be more than this. but heck, we at least got the most beautiful plane out of that, this we've got nothing but trouble. :lol:


Where do you think the cost of the Max mistake will end up?

If this plane is grounded for a year and no orders paid or made in the meantime then the money lost must dwarf the amount of concordes that were expected to be made and sold each year

And that's assuming it's never grounded again because of its flaws. This might just be the start.


My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:23 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

No surely not, that must have been the decision to build Concorde, adjusted for inflation must be more than this. but heck, we at least got the most beautiful plane out of that, this we've got nothing but trouble. :lol:


Where do you think the cost of the Max mistake will end up?

If this plane is grounded for a year and no orders paid or made in the meantime then the money lost must dwarf the amount of concordes that were expected to be made and sold each year

And that's assuming it's never grounded again because of its flaws. This might just be the start.


My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.


I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this
 
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InsideMan
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:23 pm

dkjoe wrote:

If we look at the expected failure rate after 6 months (again using the MTBF to failure rate formula), then we get a failure rate of just shy of 6.1%, or to put it in another way, if 100 737MAX is flying for 6 months, 70,000 MTBF means that we by average should have seen 6 of 100 failed sensors! That is quite another number than 70,000 h MTBF leads you to believe. NOTE: If each aircraft has 2 sensors, then the correct number is of cause 12 of 200 failed sensors.



Hi and welcome to the forum! Great first post and very good explanation how MTBF is really just smoke and mirrors. DPMO is a much better indicator for reliability and stable processes IMO.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:24 pm

Concorde
Produced 1965–1979
Number built 20 (inc. 6 non-commercial aircraft)
Program cost £1.3 billion (£7.67 billion in 2016 pounds

Concorde was a minor problem and worry to deal with in comparison. A much much smaller project.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:35 pm

hivue wrote:
So many poster here seem to want either to tag the flight crews with total inability to fly an airplane or to tag Boeing with purposeful intent to cold bloodedly murder more than 300 people. What everyone should be doing instead is trying to figure out exactly what happened. It's not likely we yet have all the information to do that.

Agreed.

One of the most annoying things in this thread is the amount of exaggeration being used.

qf789 wrote:
Azerbaijan Airlines has cancelled their order for 10 737MAX8 aircraft

http://newsinflight.com/2019/06/03/azer ... -1billion/

Ahem:

bond787 wrote:
Spetsnaz55 wrote:
Azerbaijan cancels their 8 plane Max order


Initial report was incorrect. Their 10 737 Max order has been postponed instead of being cancelled.

https://www.reuters.com/article/boeing- ... SL8N23A42V
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:42 pm

Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.


I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


Value of the company is something else than cost. My guesstimate was on a cost basis, if the problem is fixed within a reasonable term. If they can't solve the problem, highly unlikely, then it is a totally different matter.

My premise is that costumers have on where to go, actually, the only way to go is the Boeing 737NG. Airbus just have too long a back log, you are the first in 2023 or later.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.


I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


Value of the company is something else than cost. My guesstimate was on a cost basis, if the problem is fixed within a reasonable term. If they can't solve the problem, highly unlikely, then it is a totally different matter.

My premise is that costumers have on where to go, actually, the only way to go is the Boeing 737NG. Airbus just have too long a back log, you are the first in 2023 or later.


Just on cost I think it will be way way higher

They are having to compensate people and organisations left, right and centre right now.

Not counting lawsuits they will be getting ready to face from all angles
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:16 pm

Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:

I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


Value of the company is something else than cost. My guesstimate was on a cost basis, if the problem is fixed within a reasonable term. If they can't solve the problem, highly unlikely, then it is a totally different matter.

My premise is that costumers have on where to go, actually, the only way to go is the Boeing 737NG. Airbus just have too long a back log, you are the first in 2023 or later.


Just on cost I think it will be way way higher

They are having to compensate people and organisations left, right and centre right now.

Not counting lawsuits they will be getting ready to face from all angles


Ok, what do you think?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:19 pm

Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Interested wrote:

Where do you think the cost of the Max mistake will end up?

If this plane is grounded for a year and no orders paid or made in the meantime then the money lost must dwarf the amount of concordes that were expected to be made and sold each year

And that's assuming it's never grounded again because of its flaws. This might just be the start.


My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.


I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


You can't equate the loss of $60B in Market cap totally with MAX issues.

People were getting a little silly with the stock price before the second crash in March - Boeing was trading at a stupid multiple.

Since the bottom on Christmas Eve - Boeing is up 17.1% and the S&P 500 is up 17.7% - so it's under performed by .6% - less than 1/3 of the recent Daily volatility in the stock price. It may be ahead by the end of the day.

That being said - I still think it's no more than a $5B problem. The monthly lease rate on a 737 is about $350,000 times 12 months worse case times 350 airplanes = $1.47 Billion to existing MAX operators - call it $2 Billion in total for loss of fuel savings, inconvenience - Crash litigation max $1 Billion (350 lives lost X $3 million which would be high - probably closer to $1 million each) - payable over probably 5-10 years and the interest cost of carrying all the uncompleted MAX's plus leasing replacement for airlines who were expecting MAX's - call it $450,000,000 in interest and leasing in new Capacity for the undelivered MAX's - maybe another $1B.

Total $4.5 to $5Billion.

They were planning on spending $20B on share buybacks in 2019 and 2020 so they would just have to cut that back by 25% - by 50% if total losses get up to $10B - they can afford it.
Last edited by morrisond on Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
XRAYretired
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:19 pm

Not heard much from our aerodynamics guys since the NYT article. I'm struggling with a number of aspects of what we have now read and I'm sure others would find it useful to be able better grasp the nuances. Perhaps, If I elucidate.

It is reported MCAS V0.0, that as well as AOA high triggered, was 'High Speed' triggered (in concert) as determined by a threshold of 'G' which of course is an acceleration. Would it therefore be correct to assume 'High Speed' is speak for 'High Vertical Speed' i.e. Rate of change of speed in climb?

Does it then follow that 'Low Speed' referred to means Low Vertical Speed? And if so, could the perceived need to remove the 'G' threshold may be because the accuracy/resolution of the sensors is not good enough to place a lower speed threshold?

Given the report indication that the effects of upset due to wake turbulence etc. Was, at least partially, behind the drive for MCAS V0.0, does it still hold that it was about linearity? Would it be expected that the perceived performance problems at 'low Speed' would also be in regard to wake turbulence etc. And also linearity. (The report does not address these 'low speed' aspects)?

Anyone?

Thanks
Ray
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:52 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
Dutchy wrote:

My guesstimate: the tally will be between 5 and 6bn. Eventually, all the MAX's will be delivered and the orders will come back. Airbus doesn't have the capacity to build it.


I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


You can't equate the loss of $60B in Market cap totally with MAX issues.

People were getting a little silly with the stock price before the second crash in March - Boeing was trading at a stupid multiple.

Since the bottom on Christmas Eve - Boeing is up 17.1% and the S&P 500 is up 17.7% - so it's under performed by .6% - less than 1/3 of the recent Daily volatility in the stock price. It may be ahead by the end of the day.

That being said - I still think it's no more than a $5B problem. The monthly lease rate on a 737 is about $350,000 times 12 months worse case times 350 airplanes = $1.47 Billion to existing MAX operators - call it $2 Billion in total for loss of fuel savings, inconvenience - Crash litigation max $1 Billion (350 lives lost X $3 million which would be high - probably closer to $1 million each) - payable over probably 5-10 years and the interest cost of carrying all the uncompleted MAX's plus leasing replacement for airlines who were expecting MAX's - call it $450,000,000 in interest and leasing in new Capacity for the undelivered MAX's - maybe another $1B.

Total $4.5 to $5Billion.

They were planning on spending $20B on share buybacks in 2019 and 2020 so they would just have to cut that back by 25% - by 50% if total losses get up to $10B - they can afford it


However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2823
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:09 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Not heard much from our aerodynamics guys since the NYT article. I'm struggling with a number of aspects of what we have now read and I'm sure others would find it useful to be able better grasp the nuances. Perhaps, If I elucidate.

It is reported MCAS V0.0, that as well as AOA high triggered, was 'High Speed' triggered (in concert) as determined by a threshold of 'G' which of course is an acceleration. Would it therefore be correct to assume 'High Speed' is speak for 'High Vertical Speed' i.e. Rate of change of speed in climb?

Does it then follow that 'Low Speed' referred to means Low Vertical Speed? And if so, could the perceived need to remove the 'G' threshold may be because the accuracy/resolution of the sensors is not good enough to place a lower speed threshold?

Given the report indication that the effects of upset due to wake turbulence etc. Was, at least partially, behind the drive for MCAS V0.0, does it still hold that it was about linearity? Would it be expected that the perceived performance problems at 'low Speed' would also be in regard to wake turbulence etc. And also linearity. (The report does not address these 'low speed' aspects)?

Anyone?

Thanks
Ray

Thinking about it, linearity is still stability-related, although indirectly. "controls lightening", if control force is still proportional to aerodynamic force, means there is less energy required to go into stall from higher AOA situation.In other words, amount of turbulence from which NG would recover without any pilot action may end up sending NG in stall. It is not stability as defined in textbooks - response to small perturbation, it is about large perturbations.
FOr me it adds up somehow; and then MCAS 4.0 should be effectively FBW surrogate to make things work in all situations.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:18 pm

Interested wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:

I think you are way way out on your estimate

The value of the company has dropped 60 billion already!

It could fall further. It may regain if they get hold of the problem. If they can't get hold of the problem it may get worse.

Now on top of that are the actual physical costs. And at some stage if the delay continues airlines must be able to cancel orders without loss and recover deposits etc when they want to take advantage etc.

Not counting new orders that will go elsewhere as a result of this


You can't equate the loss of $60B in Market cap totally with MAX issues.

People were getting a little silly with the stock price before the second crash in March - Boeing was trading at a stupid multiple.

Since the bottom on Christmas Eve - Boeing is up 17.1% and the S&P 500 is up 17.7% - so it's under performed by .6% - less than 1/3 of the recent Daily volatility in the stock price. It may be ahead by the end of the day.

That being said - I still think it's no more than a $5B problem. The monthly lease rate on a 737 is about $350,000 times 12 months worse case times 350 airplanes = $1.47 Billion to existing MAX operators - call it $2 Billion in total for loss of fuel savings, inconvenience - Crash litigation max $1 Billion (350 lives lost X $3 million which would be high - probably closer to $1 million each) - payable over probably 5-10 years and the interest cost of carrying all the uncompleted MAX's plus leasing replacement for airlines who were expecting MAX's - call it $450,000,000 in interest and leasing in new Capacity for the undelivered MAX's - maybe another $1B.

Total $4.5 to $5Billion.

They were planning on spending $20B on share buybacks in 2019 and 2020 so they would just have to cut that back by 25% - by 50% if total losses get up to $10B - they can afford it


However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?


They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:23 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
morrisond wrote:

You can't equate the loss of $60B in Market cap totally with MAX issues.

People were getting a little silly with the stock price before the second crash in March - Boeing was trading at a stupid multiple.

Since the bottom on Christmas Eve - Boeing is up 17.1% and the S&P 500 is up 17.7% - so it's under performed by .6% - less than 1/3 of the recent Daily volatility in the stock price. It may be ahead by the end of the day.

That being said - I still think it's no more than a $5B problem. The monthly lease rate on a 737 is about $350,000 times 12 months worse case times 350 airplanes = $1.47 Billion to existing MAX operators - call it $2 Billion in total for loss of fuel savings, inconvenience - Crash litigation max $1 Billion (350 lives lost X $3 million which would be high - probably closer to $1 million each) - payable over probably 5-10 years and the interest cost of carrying all the uncompleted MAX's plus leasing replacement for airlines who were expecting MAX's - call it $450,000,000 in interest and leasing in new Capacity for the undelivered MAX's - maybe another $1B.

Total $4.5 to $5Billion.

They were planning on spending $20B on share buybacks in 2019 and 2020 so they would just have to cut that back by 25% - by 50% if total losses get up to $10B - they can afford it


However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?


They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html
 
Interested
Posts: 887
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 12:19 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:28 pm

morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:
morrisond wrote:

You can't equate the loss of $60B in Market cap totally with MAX issues.

People were getting a little silly with the stock price before the second crash in March - Boeing was trading at a stupid multiple.

Since the bottom on Christmas Eve - Boeing is up 17.1% and the S&P 500 is up 17.7% - so it's under performed by .6% - less than 1/3 of the recent Daily volatility in the stock price. It may be ahead by the end of the day.

That being said - I still think it's no more than a $5B problem. The monthly lease rate on a 737 is about $350,000 times 12 months worse case times 350 airplanes = $1.47 Billion to existing MAX operators - call it $2 Billion in total for loss of fuel savings, inconvenience - Crash litigation max $1 Billion (350 lives lost X $3 million which would be high - probably closer to $1 million each) - payable over probably 5-10 years and the interest cost of carrying all the uncompleted MAX's plus leasing replacement for airlines who were expecting MAX's - call it $450,000,000 in interest and leasing in new Capacity for the undelivered MAX's - maybe another $1B.

Total $4.5 to $5Billion.

They were planning on spending $20B on share buybacks in 2019 and 2020 so they would just have to cut that back by 25% - by 50% if total losses get up to $10B - they can afford it


However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?


They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


It's the fact that Max is 80 per cent of the order book that is scary in this if it does become a longer term issue

In any business that's a huge risk

Yes they've got huge reserves of cash but it's all relative

You don't normally just have 8 Billion in cash waiting for a rainy day. It's normally going to be earmarked for something.

I'm actually surprised that an organization this size can become so reliant on one type of plane for their income

Maybe that's one of the reasons they've cut corners to make the plane hit deadlines

This plane is what Boeing has staked its income on

Any of the others being grounded would be a blip compared to this one

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