Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:30 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:

However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?


They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


Again they can handle this easily. The bigger concern is the length of time they have no income and aren't taking orders.

They've gone all in with this plane really
 
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smittythepirate
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:32 pm

Interested wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Interested wrote:

However much you think the drop in value is down to the crashes or not I doubt it's stopped falling

And if these planes aren't back in the air for months who knows where it might fall to?

What about the lack of orders and deposits and payments for planes whilst these planes are grounded?

Surely it's all outlay now with next to no income?


They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


It's the fact that Max is 80 per cent of the order book that is scary in this if it does become a longer term issue

In any business that's a huge risk

Yes they've got huge reserves of cash but it's all relative

You don't normally just have 8 Billion in cash waiting for a rainy day. It's normally going to be earmarked for something.

I'm actually surprised that an organization this size can become so reliant on one type of plane for their income

Maybe that's one of the reasons they've cut corners to make the plane hit deadlines

This plane is what Boeing has staked its income on

Any of the others being grounded would be a blip compared to this one


I'm pretty sure it is 80% of the commercial airline business. There are other projects bringing in money besides just BCA.
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hivue
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:44 pm

XRAYretired wrote:
Not heard much from our aerodynamics guys since the NYT article. I'm struggling with a number of aspects of what we have now read and I'm sure others would find it useful to be able better grasp the nuances. Perhaps, If I elucidate.

It is reported MCAS V0.0, that as well as AOA high triggered, was 'High Speed' triggered (in concert) as determined by a threshold of 'G' which of course is an acceleration. Would it therefore be correct to assume 'High Speed' is speak for 'High Vertical Speed' i.e. Rate of change of speed in climb?

Does it then follow that 'Low Speed' referred to means Low Vertical Speed? And if so, could the perceived need to remove the 'G' threshold may be because the accuracy/resolution of the sensors is not good enough to place a lower speed threshold?

Given the report indication that the effects of upset due to wake turbulence etc. Was, at least partially, behind the drive for MCAS V0.0, does it still hold that it was about linearity? Would it be expected that the perceived performance problems at 'low Speed' would also be in regard to wake turbulence etc. And also linearity. (The report does not address these 'low speed' aspects)?

Anyone?

Thanks
Ray


I'm no aerodynamicist but reading between the lines of the NYT article made me think MCAS 0.0 was deemed necessary due to potential problems involving accelerated stall threat. When further testing revealed that the problem extended to 1G stall threat, the need for G data was rendered irrelevant. Unfortunately no one caught up with the fact that that left MCAS activation dependent on only AoA (and only one AoA sensor at that).
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FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:45 pm

Interested wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
morrisond wrote:

They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


Again they can handle this easily. The bigger concern is the length of time they have no income and aren't taking orders.

They've gone all in with this plane really


I have no doubt that they can handle it. I think overall "cost" will go up to around 10-25 billion depending on the actual length of the grounding, especially if expensive storage capacity has to be rented in for the undelivered frames. But the cost will be spread over multiple years. No problem for Boeing and the government subsidized military division brings enough revenue.

Even liquidity is not really a problem as Boeing can A sell stocks or B take loans as their credit rating is no problem. The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.
 
AirBoat
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:48 pm

Control forces in the max are not directly related to aerodynamic forces. There is a FEEL system that provides stick forces decided on by the flight computer. The magnitude of the forces are affected by the systems such as mach trim , speed trim and possibly mcas.
when MCAS needs to activate, the nose needs to drop quick. Using only stabilizer trim is pretty slow. Elevator down angle would probably also be used by increasing stick force..
What is totally illogical is reducing the amount of mcas stabilizer angle movement. If it was considered necessary before, how come not now?
Even more bizarre is doing only one mcas cycle. Surely the thing must work until the plane is out of trouble.
I suspect the reason there is no roller coaster method in handbook is that you cant trim away stick forces that are put there by the flight computer.
The comment that the plane must FEEL the same, probably means that MCAS is active across the entire flight envelope, subtly increasing stick forces where necessary to make it feel like a NG
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:08 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


What class action lawsuits?

By who?

Passengers? Both crashes were on foreign soil. Some families of crash victims will get some money but most will get very little if any.

Stock holders? The stock is up for the year and I doubt the SEC will find any reason for criminal prosecution.

Most of these law suits won't get anywhere near a court -- they never do.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:39 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


What class action lawsuits?

By who?

Passengers? Both crashes were on foreign soil. Some families of crash victims will get some money but most will get very little if any.

Stock holders? The stock is up for the year and I doubt the SEC will find any reason for criminal prosecution.

Most of these law suits won't get anywhere near a court -- they never do.


I would prepare for the worst if I would be Boeing:

So shareholders, will be comming even if stock is up, mostly based on undisclosed risks linked to possible grounding of the main selling AC. You do not need to act criminal for this. If you do not provide an adequate risk assignment you can file one.
Customers, based on buying an aircraft with an undisclosed but known designflaw (AoA disagree light)
Relatives of deaseased.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 4:50 pm

Dutchy wrote:
They should fire him.


When you're making on the sunny side of 20M, leading a global company who's end products are used by a billion people a year, anything less than an absolute world-class performance every single time in unacceptable. The resources at your disposal are almost infinite, and with the bullet proof leadership profile you should posses in spades, there are absolutely no excuses for cock-ups on an even slightly ground shaking scale. That's why they're paying 20 + 6 zeros a year, or are we pretending any schmuck could do it?

This is way beyond that, and for that reason alone he should have been terminated a while ago.
Signature. You just read one.
 
morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:01 pm

Interested wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
morrisond wrote:

They had almost $8B in cash on hand at the end of the 1st Quarter and will have Billions available under Stand by lines.

Plus they will make a lot of cash on 767, 777 and 787 Deliveries.

The market value of the stock is irrelevant to Boeing's operating activities - other than they will get more shares per dollar spent in buybacks if the price goes lower.

Over the long term with the backlog they have - the 737 will be a blip in the financials. If Boeing was in trouble the stock would be less than $100 per share. Right now it is just a Market performer.

I don't believe they can actually recognize much of the revenue on Deposits until a lot closer to delivery anyways. There are not too many slots on any lines for years - Sales might just not grow as much.


The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


Again they can handle this easily. The bigger concern is the length of time they have no income and aren't taking orders.

They've gone all in with this plane really


Orders don't matter for income for years when you have a large backlog - and again they are making substantial income/excess cash flow on the Widebody's - which may be only 20% of the Order numbers but are probably close to half the sales and cash flow.

Plus they have Boeing defense, Boeing parts, etc...

And the second deliveries resume - Sales and cash flow will sky rocket for a few quarters as they catch up.

It's really not a big deal - now two years might get a little painful - but then just stop the Buybacks. Even though $20 Billion is authorized for 2019/2020 I would have to guess they are doing much right now if any until they know when MAX deliveries will resume.
 
Zaba
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:12 pm

The NYTimes article, part about Boeing test pilot Ray Craig ... An old-school pilot, he eschewed systems that take control from pilots and would have preferred an aerodynamic fix such as vortex generators, thin fins on the wings...
He talks about vortex generators on wing, not on nacelle. I assume that at high angles of attack, MAX engine is mounted high enough to modify flow over the upper surface of the wing, such that wind lift decreases due to the local stall behind the engine. This also probably changes the centre of lift and is responsible for different behavior of MAX vs NG. Vortex generators are used to take fluid from the boundary layer and delay stall.
 
ZKCIF
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:14 pm

Somebody already hinted at the most cunning plan ever:
crash your stock price, do the buyback,
start working decently again
stock prices skyrocket
sell stock
cash in profits - might be enough for Hawaii :)
Is this crazy trick possible in real life?
 
BravoOne
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:35 pm

Senior Management set the tone for this debacle, and while most of them had no knowledge of how this problem got of hand it was bound to happen sooner or later. From the CEO down to the SLT (Senior Leadership Teams) there needs to be an accounting. The Commercial Aircraft Sales department needs to look in the mirror and see if there was something different in the way they handled this as well.
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:04 pm

7BOEING7 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html

What class action lawsuits?

Passengers? Both crashes were on foreign soil. Some families of crash victims will get some money but most will get very little if any.

I consider that your comment above may be true, but above that it is also rather sad.
US citizens on a US aircraft = mega payouts, even for the drunk homeless guy in seat 32F
Foreign (anywhere in the rest of the world) citizens, on the same US built aircraft, but registered in some dark corner of Africa or Asia = tough luck.

Us and them. Or should I say U.S. and them? :hissyfit:

What might come into play is the passenger list for ET302; 35 different nationalities, 22 countries outside of Africa, with numerous UN delegates.
Will the 18 (eighteen) from Canada be impressed with a pitiful payout?
How about the 27 from Italy, France, UK & Germany?
In fact, not counting the crew, there were only 9 (nine!!) Ethiopians on board. :o

But most important above all of those "foreign" nationalities, there were EIGHT precious US citizens that died.

At least one poster here has his fingers crossed for a paltry $1milion per pax. :shakehead:

But with NDAs plastered over every deal, I wonder if we will ever find out the miserable truth.

Fingers crossed that it doesn't cost Boeing (& it's insurers) too much, eh?
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:05 pm

BravoOne wrote:
Senior Management set the tone for this debacle, and while most of them had no knowledge of how this problem got of hand it was bound to happen sooner or later. From the CEO down to the SLT (Senior Leadership Teams) there needs to be an accounting. The Commercial Aircraft Sales department needs to look in the mirror and see if there was something different in the way they handled this as well.


And the first thing they have to do it fire the person who came up with the "making a safe plane safer" comment. What an idiot.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:06 pm

AirBoat wrote:
I suspect the reason there is no roller coaster method in handbook is that you cant trim away stick forces that are put there by the flight computer.
The comment that the plane must FEEL the same, probably means that MCAS is active across the entire flight envelope, subtly increasing stick forces where necessary to make it feel like a NG

Another reason the two crews couldn't ultimately achieve sustained level flight, even using manual options.

Is manual trim locked / deliberately heavily loaded until MCAS said was good? Does MCAS not cancel the loadings whether powered on or off? If apparently powered off, is MCAS still at work, just less obviously? Has anyone performed flight tests with MCAS switched off versus completely disabled? More revelations to come in regards to the value 2.3?
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:24 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.


So of the four current civil programs in production (737-MAX, 747-8, 777, and 787) two of them will never turn a total program profit and that's not a problem? The 777 program, I hope, will do well. The 747-8 program may also never turn a profit and if it does it won't be very big given the anemic order book.

I think that BCA needs to have a good looking over by the larger organization.
-Doc Lightning-

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14ccKemiskt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:32 pm

The 737 Max described as an "airplane non grata" by analyst. I know that people forget quickly but this will be at least initially a problem for airlines. The fact that Southwest and United will let people rebook for free if they don't wanna fly on the Max will be there as a reminder for people to maybe avoid it.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boeing-737-m ... -1.1268532
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:41 pm

14ccKemiskt wrote:
The 737 Max described as an "airplane non grata" by analyst. I know that people forget quickly but this will be at least initially a problem for airlines. The fact that Southwest and United will let people rebook for free if they don't wanna fly on the Max will be there as a reminder for people to maybe avoid it.

http://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boeing-737-m ... -1.1268532

Might be a small problem for a month or two after flights resume, but then it will fade into the background.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boein ... 2019-06-04 released today says:

U.S. residents may have their reservations about flying on a Boeing Co. 737 Max, but that won’t cast a long shadow over the company or the stock because only a few people say they will stay away from a Max for good.

That’s from analysts at UBS, who surveyed more than 1,000 people living in the U.S. about their views on the Boeing 737 Max’s debacle.

And:

Not surprising, about 70% of survey respondents said they would have some hesitation about booking a flight on a 737 Max. Nearly two thirds of the respondents, however, never or seldom check the kind of plane they plan to fly on, the UBS analysts said.

“Moreover, the overall hesitation seemed to be much more of a time to build confidence vs. a never-737MAX effect,” the analysts said.

And:

We continue to expect an end-of-July ungrounding with a certification of the new software a few weeks prior. Getting the FAA final certification flight will be a key technical and regulatory relief to watch in the near-term,” the analysts said.

Seems likely to me one year from now these tragic events will have largely faded away from the public consciousness.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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morrisond
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:52 pm

DocLightning wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.


So of the four current civil programs in production (737-MAX, 747-8, 777, and 787) two of them will never turn a total program profit and that's not a problem? The 777 program, I hope, will do well. The 747-8 program may also never turn a profit and if it does it won't be very big given the anemic order book.

I think that BCA needs to have a good looking over by the larger organization.


Somehow I think with an 10% margin on Commercial Airplanes and assume half the dollar value of Boeing's backlog of $500 Billion in the MAX program (Makes sense 5,000 Airplanes times $50M each) that's about $25B in profit on the MAX program assuming they never sell another one.

Then you have ancillary revenue and parts that could potentially add another 50% in profit over the life of the frames.

The MAX crashes will make a dent taking away 10-20% of lifetime profit on the program but it will still be a big Money maker for Boeing.

I would expect that once it is all sorted they will probably easily sell another few thousand before an NSA replacement is available in Volume.

They will eventually financially win on the MAX - and even with the losses given they have a better Margin than Airbus commercial - I bet you the absolute dollar value of profit over time is not materially different.
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:57 pm

I have refrained for posting on these MAX threads because quite frankly, lot of exaggeration and Ill comments.

I really hope Boeing makes its homework because after the grounding is lifted ANY incident will be magnified ... I certainly hope they can get back on track, pay what is due and polishs again its tarnished image.

Best Regards
TRB
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ThePointblank
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:21 pm

Emirates CEO Tim Clark is saying that he would be extremely surprised if the grounding is lifted before Christmas:

https://airlinerwatch.com/emirates-boss ... christmas/

Emirates president believes the 737 MAX's worldwide grounding will last longer than expected. According to Clark, the plane won't return to service in July as Boeing predicts.

“You’re going to have a bit of a delay in terms of regulators, Canada, Europe, China. It’s going to take time to get this aircraft back in the air. If it’s in the air by Christmas I’ll be surprised,” Clark told reporters during the sidelines of the IATA annual meeting in Seoul.

Clark did not provide any detail on the dispute issues.
 
Sooner787
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:27 pm

I still believe the FAA will lift their grounding order by early August,, with other nations following
at their own pace. But even if the FAA lifts the order 1 August, it's going to be a long process to get
all the US Max fleet up and running again.
 
akb88
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:27 pm

Well the somewhat unthinkable seems to have happened. Icelandair have leased an Airbus! Due to the grounding they have leased several planes and maybe the market for 757/767 has run dry. Also the CEO recently mentioned the possibility of changing to an Airbus fleet.

https://turisti.is/2019/06/icelandair-b ... qT3_5kJ8hs
Last edited by akb88 on Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
14ccKemiskt
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:28 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems likely to me one year from now these tragic events will have largely faded away from the public consciousness.


Yes, that outcome is not unlikely, but it is not certain.

Airlines will surely accept the Max, once ungrounded. And they will not hold any particular grudgeeither, their bottom line is just as important to them as Boeing's bottom line is to their shareholders. The airlines also for the same reason won't care that much what Boeing does to get the model ungrounded.

But pilots and certain vocal parts of the public WILL care how it all goes about. My reasoning is that if Boeing never takes full responsibilty for the crashes, keeps claiming that the Max actually was safe with MCAS 1.0 and that the training of pilots and the documentation was sufficient before the crashes then these actors will still be very angry. And if they are angry, they will do their best to keep the public's attention on that Boeing in general and the 737 Max in particular are not trustworthy. That might be a problem for quite some time.

To me, Boeing HAS to step out of their defensive positioning and just take full responsibilty for this mess, admit they failed and show why we from now on can trust them fully again.
 
Curiousflyer
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:38 pm

The only way to be sure to not end up on a MAX on a short-haul flight will be to fly Delta, Frontier or Jetblue because they don't have them at all. This will be great for those airlines. AA, UA , Southwest and Alaska will suffer quite a bit given the UBS study. They will have to do a gigantic job to bring confidence back to the flying public. A lot of people might avoid their short-haul flights for a while if the MAX is allowed to fly again. And if there is another crash, they will not be touching airlines that fly it.
 
RickNRoll
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:13 pm

DocLightning wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.


So of the four current civil programs in production (737-MAX, 747-8, 777, and 787) two of them will never turn a total program profit and that's not a problem? The 777 program, I hope, will do well. The 747-8 program may also never turn a profit and if it does it won't be very big given the anemic order book.

I think that BCA needs to have a good looking over by the larger organization.
Cash is king, as the saying goes. The financial world doesn't care about the long term if there is cash pouring in now. The problem is the MAX grounding is putting a big hole in the cash flow.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:32 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
The only way to be sure to not end up on a MAX on a short-haul flight will be to fly Delta, Frontier or Jetblue because they don't have them at all. This will be great for those airlines. AA, UA , Southwest and Alaska will suffer quite a bit given the UBS study. They will have to do a gigantic job to bring confidence back to the flying public. A lot of people might avoid their short-haul flights for a while if the MAX is allowed to fly again. And if there is another crash, they will not be touching airlines that fly it.


What about the rest of the world?
 
MLIAA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:40 pm

Saw somewhere that a new MAX was ferried to SKF for storage due to no more space in PAE, BFI and RNT. It got me thinking.

What airports in the US have large, unused ramps that could store MAXs after SKF fills up? STL, DAY, CVG, and MKE come to my mind after a brief google earth search.
A319 A320 A321 A332 B712 B722 B737 B738 B739 B744 B752 B763 B764 B772 B788 MD80 S340 E140 E145 E170 E175 CRJ2 CRJ7 CRJ9
 
tropical
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:41 pm

Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:51 pm

tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again


New he was a lawyer — didn’t know he was a structural engineer.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:05 pm

MLIAA wrote:
Saw somewhere that a new MAX was ferried to SKF for storage due to no more space in PAE, BFI and RNT. It got me thinking.

What airports in the US have large, unused ramps that could store MAXs after SKF fills up? STL, DAY, CVG, and MKE come to my mind after a brief google earth search.


Dessert storage? Good option to keep a plane for a few months and the fee will be less than regular airports.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
 
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ODwyerPW
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:37 pm

tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again


Uh-oh.... I see a book coming "Unsafe at Any Altitude"
learning never stops.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:07 am

dkjoe wrote:
Hi,

New user here. My background is software development, with special focus on safety critical systems (we design hardware and software solutions manned cranes, lifts, foresting machines etc.). I have wanted to jump into this topic for a while now, but I join now, as I feel the post from kalvado (thanks for the number) needs some perspective:


Welcome to A. net. Yours was a most educational post. Thank you very much.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:26 am

When was the last time there was a positive news story came out about Max 737?

Despite all the investment and money behind this plane

Has anybody actually got anything good to say about the design or the plane?

Being honest - it's the ultimate white elephant.

It's a liability for Boeing rather than an asset

And isn't anything they do now with this plane just going to be damage limitation?

Ralph Nader above actually makes a good point tbh

It's a really depressing situation for the airline industry to find itself in right now
Last edited by Interested on Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Elshad
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:35 am

Probably Muilenburg at one of his bizarre press conferences where he claims everything is fine.
 
Absynth
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:19 am

Revelation wrote:
14ccKemiskt wrote:
We continue to expect an end-of-July ungrounding with a certification of the new software a few weeks prior. Getting the FAA final certification flight will be a key technical and regulatory relief to watch in the near-term,” the analysts said.

Seems likely to me one year from now these tragic events will have largely faded away from the public consciousness.


A US-only early ungrounding will be a risky strategy. What if other regulators find issues that need to be addressed? What will happen to the planes already flying? How will the public respond? Will Boeing's response be 'making a safer plane even more safe'? An early ungrounding could backfire where the flying public might lose confidence indefinitely.

All the posters that are talking down that risk and the financial consequences seem to have forgot what happend to McDonell Douglas.
 
Paolo18
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:47 am

tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again



In total agreement.
:bigthumbsup:
 
chiad
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 7:52 am

ODwyerPW wrote:
tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again


Uh-oh.... I see a book coming "Unsafe at Any Altitude"


Goodness ... could this actually happen?
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:02 am

Paolo18 wrote:
tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again



In total agreement.
:bigthumbsup:


If it wasn't already such an important plane to Boeing and airlines then I'm sure it wouldn't fly again

I bet Boeing wish they could turn the clock back and start all over again

That's the frustrating bit. They have to persevere with this plane now.

I understand that.

But I think it helps explain all the poor decisions and lack of transparency we've read about. They are so committed to this plane at this stage they've had to bend/break rules to get it in the air.

Can Boeing actually solve in 6 months out in the open what they couldn't solve in 6 years hiding things from people?

Theres maybe a 10 per cent chance they cant solve all the issues adequately

Regardless it's going to be a compromised plane in many ways

And when it does fly again it's going to be under intense scrutiny for many years

Like I say if only Boeing could turn back time and start again I'm sure things would be different
 
Paolo18
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:15 am

Boeing tried to fly under the radar with Max 8 737 .

Finally exposed.

If they think that a software fix can fix the real issue, then they must be dillusional.

Software suggests a temporary fix for a much wider bigger hardware problem.

Sadly, I see more lives being lost once this plane is airborne.
 
Paolo18
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:30 am

Interested wrote:
When was the last time there was a positive news story came out about Max 737?

Despite all the investment and money behind this plane

Has anybody actually got anything good to say about the design or the plane?

Being honest - it's the ultimate white elephant.

It's a liability for Boeing rather than an asset

And isn't anything they do now with this plane just going to be damage limitation?

Ralph Nader above actually makes a good point tbh

It's a really depressing situation for the airline industry to find itself in right now



Why should there be a positive news story?

It's flawed by design and Boeing designed it and now has blood on its hands but no one be dared prosecuted @Boeing for liability.

Boeing know its the ugly duckling in its stable, but sure is adding the panacea to the world who fall for it.

Retire it, build a new bridge and move on.
Heck just right-off the remaining 737 max 8 with insurance and start fresh again.

Lives before profit...
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:39 am

Paolo18 wrote:
Interested wrote:
When was the last time there was a positive news story came out about Max 737?

Despite all the investment and money behind this plane

Has anybody actually got anything good to say about the design or the plane?

Being honest - it's the ultimate white elephant.

It's a liability for Boeing rather than an asset

And isn't anything they do now with this plane just going to be damage limitation?

Ralph Nader above actually makes a good point tbh

It's a really depressing situation for the airline industry to find itself in right now



Why should there be a positive beinrealiory?

It's flawed by design and Boeing designed it and now has blood on its hands but no one be dared prosecuted @Boeing for liability.

Boeing know its the ugly duckling in its stable, but sure is adding the panacea to the world who fall for it.

Retire it, build a new bridge and move on.
Heck just right-off the remaining 737 max 8 with insurance and start fresh again.

Lives before profit...


Sadly I don't think that is financially viable for Boeing, the airlines or the industry as a whole

The financial impact would be catastrophic for so many in the industry - not just Boeing

I would like to agree with you - but I think this plane has become too big and too important to be retired

It would set the industry back 10 years

They have to make it safe to fly for everybody somehow
 
LGWGate49
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:15 am

I work for a large corporate travel agency, and after a major global client meeting last week we are developing for them (and therefore more broadly across our business) a filter for flights on our online booking tool by aircraft type. It will also be possible to filter by manufacturer, so you could for example select only Airbus or exclude Boeing.

We can’t be the only ones looking at this. For those that think that in a year this will have blown over then you should seriously think again, aircraft type / manufacturer is now a serious consideration in the public’s mind after this.
Look for the ridiculous in everything, and you will find it
 
xmp125a
Posts: 233
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 10:18 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

The real big deal will be the class action law suits. I guess this will already go in the 5billion range, maybe even more depending on the criminal investigation. Here some references:
https://www.gjel.com/blog/largest-class-action-settlements.html


What class action lawsuits?

By who?

Passengers? Both crashes were on foreign soil. Some families of crash victims will get some money but most will get very little if any.


Are you serious? Of course foreign parties can sue US company that sells defective goods to foreign countries. https://www.quora.com/Can-a-foreign-com ... t-was-sent. What would you expect, that Boeing opposes this and requests that the trial would be held in Ethiopia or something?

As to the amount, the actual damages may just be a blip in overall Boeing financials - but that is exactly the reason for punitive damages. So while Boeing in worst case is on the hook for under billion for actual damages (300 people killed, lets's say upper limit of 1000 plaintiffs) , the punitive damages may go into multiple billions. Toyota had their lesson in uncommanded acceleration case, where after jury decided to award the damages to the plaintiffs, they quickly offered generous settlement, to stop the jury from awarding punitive damages.

Most of these law suits won't get anywhere near a court -- they never do.


Of course not. It would be a slam and dunk case against Boeing, as the development of MCAS so egregiously violated all safety standards, that you probably don't even need aeronautics specialists to be a witness. Probably a good lawyer could squeeze enough self-incriminating evidence from the Boeing's employees when on the witness stand and complement it with an generic safety-critical systems engineer from any other discipline (chemical, petrochemical, medicine, etc) to say that what Boeing did goes against the basics of the safety-critical system design.

So Boeing will pay just to to get the case out of courts and hope public forgets 737MAX problems as soon as possible. It would be even more difficult since the ungrounding may correspond with the final report on one of two crashes, again reigniting the public interest. Add to this very public court case...
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:18 am

Absynth wrote:
Revelation wrote:
14ccKemiskt wrote:
Seems likely to me one year from now these tragic events will have largely faded away from the public consciousness.

A US-only early ungrounding will be a risky strategy. What if other regulators find issues that need to be addressed? What will happen to the planes already flying? How will the public respond? Will Boeing's response be 'making a safer plane even more safe'? An early ungrounding could backfire where the flying public might lose confidence indefinitely.

All the posters that are talking down that risk and the financial consequences seem to have forgot what happend to McDonell Douglas.

I doubt there is a US-only early ungrounding strategy.

I believe the desire would be as close to a world wide rollout as can be achieved.

At this point we know various agencies are being pressured to show independence.

Even FAA is being pressured to show independence from Boeing.

And of course we have the current US-China trade tensions with MAX being a very visible bargaining chip.

So I think the idea of a worldwide rollout is a fanatasy, there is no way that will be happening.

I think everyone should be prepared for a slow roll.

Yet some here push out the idea of a worldwide rollout knowing it won't happen because they enjoy watching the giant stumble.

Paolo18 wrote:
Boeing tried to fly under the radar with Max 8 737 .

Finally exposed.

If they think that a software fix can fix the real issue, then they must be dillusional.

Software suggests a temporary fix for a much wider bigger hardware problem.

Sadly, I see more lives being lost once this plane is airborne.

Nonsense.

Software is as permanent a fix as is hardware.

Yes, there are requirements that when software or the computer hardware it runs on fails the aircraft fall back to "basic law" direct control, but once that happens you head for the airport because it's risky to fly around without the "augmentation" provided by the computer.

There are tons of "augmentation systems" that go beyond the "basic law" building blocks thus are augmentation but to me that is just a word game to calm those nervous about automation.

Note that MCAS on MAX was taken from MCAS on KC-46A.

The main issue with MCAS on MAX was its botched implementation.

It's pretty clear that a pure hardware MCAS implementation that relied on only one error-prone sensor would be just as problematic as MCAS on MAX has turned out to be.

And yes you could do MCAS purely in hardware (we had stick shakers before we had flying computers) but it'd be far more crude than any software approach.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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Some1Somewhere
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:23 am

It seems like the EFCU would be the correct way to permanently and transparently fix the problem. It's already adjusting stick forces depending on all the same variables MCAS is I think?

But I'm guessing lead times on a new hydromechanical computer are pretty long, and after the whole 737 rudder issue there would be buckets and buckets of certification.
 
Absynth
Posts: 82
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:43 am

Revelation wrote:
Absynth wrote:
Revelation wrote:

A US-only early ungrounding will be a risky strategy. What if other regulators find issues that need to be addressed? What will happen to the planes already flying? How will the public respond? Will Boeing's response be 'making a safer plane even more safe'? An early ungrounding could backfire where the flying public might lose confidence indefinitely.

All the posters that are talking down that risk and the financial consequences seem to have forgot what happend to McDonell Douglas.

I doubt there is a US-only early ungrounding strategy.

I believe the desire would be as close to a world wide rollout as can be achieved.

At this point we know various agencies are being pressured to show independence.

Even FAA is being pressured to show independence from Boeing.

And of course we have the current US-China trade tensions with MAX being a very visible bargaining chip.

So I think the idea of a worldwide rollout is a fanatasy, there is no way that will be happening.

I think everyone should be prepared for a slow roll.

Yet some here push out the idea of a worldwide rollout knowing it won't happen because they enjoy watching the giant stumble.


I never claimed a worldwide rollout, thanks for putting words in my mouth. But you should reread your own post where you state this as likely. I think you mean staged global rollout which is in fact what everybody assumes.

You OTOH cited a claim for July ungrounding as realistic. This is only realistic if the US goes ahead solo. There is a near zero chance they will get Europe and Canada alongside such an aggressive timeline based on what we know about at least EASA's approach.

So which one is it? July for FAA or next year for majority global rollout? You can't have your cake and eat it too.
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:18 pm

tropical wrote:
Now Ralph Nader says the MAX "must never fly again"...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again


That's surprising...They already have seatbelts.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 12:44 pm

Curiousflyer wrote:
The only way to be sure to not end up on a MAX on a short-haul flight will be to fly Delta, Frontier or Jetblue because they don't have them at all. This will be great for those airlines. AA, UA , Southwest and Alaska will suffer quite a bit given the UBS study. They will have to do a gigantic job to bring confidence back to the flying public. A lot of people might avoid their short-haul flights for a while if the MAX is allowed to fly again. And if there is another crash, they will not be touching airlines that fly it.


If I were the marketing Dept of those airlines, I'd advertise my safer fleet. I'm shameless like that....

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