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IADFCO
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:55 pm

planecane wrote:
[...]
With MCAS 2.0, do we really want pilots wasting valuable simulator time practicing some very unlikely case where MCAS is disabled and they end up doing an extreme maneuver that reduces stick force a little bit and makes it slightly easier to end up in a stall attitude? Especially since a stall should be easily recoverable anyway.


If the picture is as rosy as you make it to be, sure. But I would like to be a little more cautious.

First of all, an evasive maneuver resulting in a tight wind-up turn is fortunately unlikely, but it is also plausible and it would occur in emergency conditions, where the lives of crew and passengers could be in immediate danger. If extra MAX specific flight training is not OK, and simulator training is also not OK, that means that your pilot would experience the "little bit" of stick force change for the first time in his or her life right during that emergency maneuver. I wouldn't want to be on that plane.

"Slightly easier to end up in a stall attitude"? "Easily recoverable anyway"? Maybe, maybe not. The picture that is slowly (excruciatingly slowly) emerging from the leaks is that the pitching moment generated by the engine nacelle is, if not a red herring, probably only a part of the picture. More and more the big question mark seems to be what the engine does to the wing airflow around and post stall. Dominic Gates's latest article adds a new technical tidbit:

"[...] The lack of smooth feel was caused by the jet's tendency to pitch up, influenced by shock waves that form over the wing at high speeds and the extra lift surface provided by the pods around the MAX's engines [...]

While the problem was narrow in scope, it proved difficult to cope with. The engineers first tried tweaking the plane's aerodynamic shape, according to two workers familiar with the testing. They placed vortex generators -- small metal vanes on the wings -- to help modify the flow of air, trying them in different locations, in different quantities and at different angles. They also explored altering the shape of the wing.

Two people familiar with the discussions said 737 MAX chief test pilot Ray Craig preferred such a physical solution to solve the plane's aerodynamics. [...]

But the aerodynamic solutions didn't produce enough effect, the two people said, and so the engineers turned to MCAS. [...]"

The transonic effects (shock stall?) had never been mentioned before. The impossibility to fix the aerodynamic problem at the root had.

Anyway, all of this is easy to check. With MCAS 2.0 operating normally, perform a high speed wind up turn through stall, and recover. A few extra minutes of flight test and we'll know if this is a problem and how big. I hope the FAA or someone else does it.
 
SteinarN
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 6:57 pm

packsonflight wrote:
What is the status of the MAX reentry into service? What are the issues that need to be worked on before it happens? apart from how this all came about.

I find it interesting that all of a sudden everything on the news front is quiet on what is really going on, apart from some entry date dropping here and there.

Can we try to identify the issues that needs to be rectified before service entry please

1. MCAS software obviously

2. Training requirements, Ipad or sim and what needs to be disclosed.

3. Manual trim system. Lately there have bin some news about shortcomings of this system. Is it under review?

4. Flap or slat system. Some issues have bin reported, as I recall. Not sure if it is really a problem

5. Stall characteristics without MCAS. Looks like stall behaviour is out of limits. possibly seen as a problem by regulators.


Very good summary.

I would say 3 and 5 are the difficult problems. And they affect point 2 to the degree that in my opinion service entry should as a minimum require sim time to train the near stall behaviour with inoperable MCAS as well as training use of the trim wheel at severely out of trim conditions.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:20 pm

I don't understand why some people seemingly take offense at suggestion that there might something else wrong with the MAX aside from MCAS s/w that is already fixed. Chill, people. It's not like we are talking [email protected] about your baby. It is just a plane. That a may or may not have problems. :)
 
planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 7:29 pm

kalvado wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
kalvado wrote:
There were much less than a million of uneventful flights - with 1 crash in 10-20 million being current statistics on modern jets and 1 billion being certification goal. So MAX really didn't fly enough to brag about any sort of in-service history. Not even toddler level experience.


It's simple fact, not any sort of bragging. If you those facts aren't acceptable to you, then I can't help you with that issue.

If we take your logic further, I would expect you wouldn't set foot on any aircraft early in their life cycle. In other words, certification alone isn't enough. Certification and thousands of flights with no serious issues isn't enough either. Quite ironic actually.

That is why proper design, safety analysis and certification - intended to catch issues early in lifecycle - regardless of possible EIS delays or contract penalties - should exist.
Getting on a plane before that many cycles are accumulated is a statement of trust to those who performed those task with due diligence. Trust - something Boeing earned for decades and lost in mere months.
ANd you may be missing the point - there were less than a million of flights with two crashes. You mean the rest of those flight are OK?
Fine.. Lets think about it in other way. Would you trust a taxi driver who is sober during 99% of the rides? Meaning working drunk only once every 2 months..


The fact remains that the MAX didn't "fall out of the sky," "commit suicide," "crash itself" or any of the other things people like to post in this thread to be overly dramatic. MCAS drastically increased the rate of occurrence of a failure mode that pilots were not adequately trained to recognize and respond to.

The actual steps to take that would have saved both aircraft were easy to perform and, as evidenced by Lion Air 043 the situation was survivable.

This post isn't defending/whitewashing/whatevering Boeing that I'm about to be accused of. The point of this post is to point out that the MAX design, even with MCAS 1.0, hasn't been shown to inherently unsafe. Had the pilots been trained for an MCAS runaway, there wouldn't have been any crashes and the aircraft wouldn't have been grounded and you would not have a problem boarding one.

Essentially the same failure mode can happen on an NG. Luckily it doesn't happen very often if at all and hopefully now pilots will recognize it and respond correctly if it does happen.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:08 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
PW100 wrote:
That certification system and those (mere) thousands of flights are the very reason the thing is grounded. Doesn't bode well to use that as evidence that the rest of the plane is (proven) safe . . .

No, it's grounded because of a second crash that exposed a software issue.

No, this is absolutely false ! :shakehead:
AD #: 2018-23-51 was issued the November 7, 2018, before the second (ET302) crash and precisely describes that this was related to the Flight Control Computer:
"Note: The 737-8/-9 uses a Flight Control Computer command of pitch
trim to improve longitudinal handling characteristics. In the event of
erroneous Angle of Attack (AOA) input, the pitch trim system can trim
the stabilizer nose down in increments lasting up to 10 seconds."
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:23 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
kalvado wrote:
That is why proper design, safety analysis and certification - intended to catch issues early in lifecycle - regardless of possible EIS delays or contract penalties - should exist.
Getting on a plane before that many cycles are accumulated is a statement of trust to those who performed those task with due diligence. Trust - something Boeing earned for decades and lost in mere months.
ANd you may be missing the point - there were less than a million of flights with two crashes. You mean the rest of those flight are OK?
Fine.. Lets think about it in other way. Would you trust a taxi driver who is sober during 99% of the rides? Meaning working drunk only once every 2 months..


But you just inferred that apparently proper certification isn't enough. What is it? Now all it takes is nebulous "trust"? If you had no knowledge there was a drunk driver and the driver had never been caught, does that "trust" prove proper certification? The trail you're leading down is the antithesis of safety.

That's not an accurate analogy. The question should be do you trust a former drunk driver who can't physically get drunk again? That's where the MAX is at today.

SOmeone already answered way better than I could. I will just quote:
ArgentoSystems wrote:
I don't understand why some people seemingly take offense at suggestion that there might something else wrong with the MAX aside from MCAS s/w that is already fixed. Chill, people. It's not like we are talking [email protected] about your baby. It is just a plane. That a may or may not have problems. :)
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:35 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
PW100 wrote:
That certification system and those (mere) thousands of flights are the very reason the thing is grounded. Doesn't bode well to use that as evidence that the rest of the plane is (proven) safe . . .


No, it's grounded because of a second crash that exposed a software issue.

It's not grounded because of thousands of uneventful flights and a lack of other issues being found in certification. Ironically your standard for "safe" would mean no new airplane would ever take to the skies.

The grounding continues, presumably because the FAA and other certification authorities have 'found' a number of issues, plus Boeing owned up to a few more, and perhaps whistle blowers have pointed to more possible shortcuts, deficiencies and poetic licence.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 8:45 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
No, this is absolutely false ! :shakehead:
AD #: 2018-23-51 was issued the November 7, 2018, before the second (ET302) crash and precisely describes that this was related to the Flight Control Computer:
"Note: The 737-8/-9 uses a Flight Control Computer command of pitch
trim to improve longitudinal handling characteristics. In the event of
erroneous Angle of Attack (AOA) input, the pitch trim system can trim
the stabilizer nose down in increments lasting up to 10 seconds."


So you say it's false and then go ahead and confirm it as accurate???

The MAX isn't grounded because of one crash. There was a software problem as you confirm. I don't think you understand the statement.

kalvado wrote:
SOmeone already answered way better than I could. I will just quote:


So you're choosing to evade. Fair enough.

smartplane wrote:
The grounding continues, presumably because the FAA and other certification authorities have 'found' a number of issues, plus Boeing owned up to a few more, and perhaps whistle blowers have pointed to more possible shortcuts, deficiencies and poetic licence.


...or presumably because of natural timing of getting it fixed and politics, as there is some evidence of both. There is a lack of evidence to support your presumption.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:46 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
The MAX isn't grounded because of one crash. There was a software problem as you confirm.

Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:58 pm

kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.

Somehow I don't think if Boeing said they f***up and stated that they would pay the families millions that the a/c would not have been grounded after the second crash revealed similarities to the first, but that's just my opinion.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:03 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
That's not an accurate analogy. The question should be do you trust a former drunk driver who can't physically get drunk again? That's where the MAX is at today.

That's a categorical NO from me. I do not trust him. So he can't get drunk, I don't care. He can still get high, can he not? Or decide to do stunt driving. Drunk driving is not the problem, it is a manifestation of a problem. The problem is he acted dangerously in the past. And you are right, "That's where the MAX is at today"
 
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TheRedBaron
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:25 pm

I just want to stop seeing that the pilot could have done differently and saved the doomed flights. Please KNOW that the crews were not familiar and possibly not trained to handle a MCAS malfunction... and also in a dire situation, so please stop that and lets focus on the actual grounding of the MAX, and its "fix".

Good Lord

Regards
TRB
The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:33 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.

Somehow I don't think if Boeing said they f***up and stated that they would pay the families millions that the a/c would not have been grounded after the second crash revealed similarities to the first, but that's just my opinion.


Ok I will bite, so you think, if boeing just paid the families first, the MAX would still be flying. So MCAS, the design flaw, the simulators not representing the real flight characteristics and other saftey issues wasnt a reason at all?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:54 pm

par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.

Somehow I don't think if Boeing said they f***up and stated that they would pay the families millions that the a/c would not have been grounded after the second crash revealed similarities to the first, but that's just my opinion.

If the first crash was taken seriously, as opposed to f&k off AD and putting software upgrade to a back burner - the second crash could be avoided, as well as following events.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 10:58 pm

kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.


So the grounding is not about the cause of the crashes themselves. Wow. Duly noted.

ArgentoSystems wrote:
That's a categorical NO from me. I do not trust him. So he can't get drunk, I don't care. He can still get high, can he not? Or decide to do stunt driving. Drunk driving is not the problem, it is a manifestation of a problem. The problem is he acted dangerously in the past. And you are right, "That's where the MAX is at today"


Good, let's expand on the logic. I don't expect one to trust a person, but we're not talking a person either--instead a machine. A machine can't change it's behavior away from its programmed to do. One problem isn't automatically a symptom of something larger.

You don't trust this person. Fair enough. But does your lack of trust mean that I should not be allowed to trust the person? In other words, if you don't want to fly on a MAX, why should that prevent me from flying on one? If one is not allowed to trust someone or something after a issue is addressed and permanently fixed, then it's effectively a no-tolerance policy leading to permanent disuse. If we applied that logic to every airliner made, we'd have a very quiet airspace right now.

The reasoning being thrown around to keep the MAX grounded is much like trying to find a crime, which is illegal in the US. The MAX was caught, it paid the price, and it's being permanently prevented from doing that dangerous action again. In the meantime its record has been reviewed again, as it was thoroughly reviewed before and after it took flight. There needs to be a identifiable suspicion to "dig up" another "crime". That is what is lacking in the argument to keep the plane grounded.

TheRedBaron wrote:
I just want to stop seeing that the pilot could have done differently and saved the doomed flights. Please KNOW that the crews were not familiar and possibly not trained to handle a MCAS malfunction... and also in a dire situation, so please stop that and lets focus on the actual grounding of the MAX, and its "fix".


Complying with your wish means I have to reject reality. I don't know why you would want to live in an alternative reality.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:00 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
No, this is absolutely false ! :shakehead:
AD #: 2018-23-51 was issued the November 7, 2018, before the second (ET302) crash and precisely describes that this was related to the Flight Control Computer:
"Note: The 737-8/-9 uses a Flight Control Computer command of pitch
trim to improve longitudinal handling characteristics. In the event of
erroneous Angle of Attack (AOA) input, the pitch trim system can trim
the stabilizer nose down in increments lasting up to 10 seconds."


So you say it's false and then go ahead and confirm it as accurate???

The MAX isn't grounded because of one crash. There was a software problem as you confirm. I don't think you understand the statement.

It's not the second crash that exposed the software issue.

The first crash already exposed the software issue and retrospectively the AD #: 2018-23-51 should have grounded the 737-8/9 MAX immediately because is was already known at that time that a critical safety assessment was missing. But instead of properly doing that missing safety assessment, Boeing cheery-picked an old barely adequate procedure designed for a completely different failure mode and blamed the pilots for the lack of training. The grounding not only forced Boeing to properly do the missing safety assessment, but it forced Boeing to reevaluate a lot of practices where safety is involved.
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:02 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.


So the grounding is not about the cause of the crashes themselves. Wow. Duly noted.

By now it is about deep reasons behind those crashes, that is unsafe design practices. Much harder to sort out than software problem.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:03 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
It's not the second crash that exposed the software issue.


Then you didn't understand the statement. I'm not saying only the second crash exposed the software issue. I'm saying both of them exposed the issue, and because there was a second crash it was grounded.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:21 pm

MSPNWA wrote:

Good, let's expand on the logic. I don't expect one to trust a person, but we're not talking a person either--instead a machine. A machine can't change it's behavior away from its programmed to do. One problem isn't automatically a symptom of something larger.

The machine was designed by people who did stupid. So we caught one stupid. It is not wrong to assume that there might be more.

You don't trust this person. Fair enough. But does your lack of trust mean that I should not be allowed to trust the person? In other words, if you don't want to fly on a MAX, why should that prevent me from flying on one?

You can do whatever you want, including take a cab with a convicted drunk driver. That's besides the point though. It is not about you. Or me.
If one is not allowed to trust someone or something after a issue is addressed and permanently fixed, then it's effectively a no-tolerance policy leading to permanent disuse. If we applied that logic to every airliner made, we'd have a very quiet airspace right now.

The reasoning being thrown around to keep the MAX grounded is much like trying to find a crime, which is illegal in the US. The MAX was caught, it paid the price, and it's being permanently prevented from doing that dangerous action again. In the meantime its record has been reviewed again, as it was thoroughly reviewed before and after it took flight. There needs to be a identifiable suspicion to "dig up" another "crime". That is what is lacking in the argument to keep the plane grounded.

Yeah, so, what's wrong? IRS audits you and finds funny stuff in 2018, do you think they will not check your other returns over last 6 years? Only fair.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:32 pm

IADFCO wrote:
influenced by shock waves that form over the wing at high speeds

I read that. I'd always seen that a wing stalls at a certain AOA. After reading that, I assume that a wing stalling at high speed behaves a little different than the same wing stalling at low speed.
On the MAX, they addressed the high speed (turn) first. Then the low speed stall proved to be a problem as well.
According to the article, MCAS has two different rotation rates on the HStab, .06 and .27, whether that is true or not, I'm skeptical since this is new information.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:45 pm

kalvado wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.


So the grounding is not about the cause of the crashes themselves. Wow. Duly noted.

By now it is about deep reasons behind those crashes, that is unsafe design practices. Much harder to sort out than software problem.

IMO, it was about asking the question, what if MCAS, or any system malfunctions? What is the probability, and what are the ramifications?
Should Boeing have asked that question, or should the FAA have asked that question, or is that question out of the realm of consideration in modern engineering? I don't think it is too far out, any decent engineering system should ask it. That puts the responsibility on Boeing or the FAA, there was a gap, who gets to own it? Then, it needs to be fixed. No admission of a gap, no ungrounding, IMO.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:26 am

smartplane wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
PW100 wrote:
That certification system and those (mere) thousands of flights are the very reason the thing is grounded. Doesn't bode well to use that as evidence that the rest of the plane is (proven) safe . . .


No, it's grounded because of a second crash that exposed a software issue.

It's not grounded because of thousands of uneventful flights and a lack of other issues being found in certification. Ironically your standard for "safe" would mean no new airplane would ever take to the skies.

The grounding continues, presumably because the FAA and other certification authorities have 'found' a number of issues, plus Boeing owned up to a few more, and perhaps whistle blowers have pointed to more possible shortcuts, deficiencies and poetic licence.


Not true. Your presumptions are incorrect. There is one issue and only one grounding the airplane.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:30 am

kalvado wrote:
par13del wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Nope. It is grounded because of meltdown in handling crashes, and - as it becoming evident - a meltdown in design process as well.
"Software problem" is as accurate of a description as calling stage 4 cancer "a sore". Well, sort of true in both cases.

Somehow I don't think if Boeing said they f***up and stated that they would pay the families millions that the a/c would not have been grounded after the second crash revealed similarities to the first, but that's just my opinion.

If the first crash was taken seriously, as opposed to f&k off AD and putting software upgrade to a back burner - the second crash could be avoided, as well as following events.


The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash. What you are stating is not correct. It was not on the back burner.

Where do people come up with bogus stuff like a lot of what is posted here?
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:35 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
par13del wrote:
Somehow I don't think if Boeing said they f***up and stated that they would pay the families millions that the a/c would not have been grounded after the second crash revealed similarities to the first, but that's just my opinion.

If the first crash was taken seriously, as opposed to f&k off AD and putting software upgrade to a back burner - the second crash could be avoided, as well as following events.


The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash. What you are stating is not correct. It was not on the back burner.

Where do people come up with bogus stuff like a lot of what is posted here?

Exactly nothing was announced until the second crash; the first mention of any action was your post after ET crash.
I, for one, don't believe that it takes that long for a critical patch to go through. So it WAS on a back burner. DOn't tell me that it takes that long to verify and certify etc. - 787 was brought from nothing to delivered in less than a decade...
 
BoeingGuy
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Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:06 am

kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
If the first crash was taken seriously, as opposed to f&k off AD and putting software upgrade to a back burner - the second crash could be avoided, as well as following events.


The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash. What you are stating is not correct. It was not on the back burner.

Where do people come up with bogus stuff like a lot of what is posted here?

Exactly nothing was announced until the second crash; the first mention of any action was your post after ET crash.
I, for one, don't believe that it takes that long for a critical patch to go through. So it WAS on a back burner. DOn't tell me that it takes that long to verify and certify etc. - 787 was brought from nothing to delivered in less than a decade...


Believe what you want. I saw it starting to be developed so I would know a little better. It WASN’T on a back burner. One of the big hang ups with new changes to crew interface is showing compliance to the new CFR 25.1302.

But again, as with some other posters, someone who doesn’t really know the facts thinks they are going to tell someone who was there what “really” happened.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:23 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash. What you are stating is not correct. It was not on the back burner.

Where do people come up with bogus stuff like a lot of what is posted here?

Exactly nothing was announced until the second crash; the first mention of any action was your post after ET crash.
I, for one, don't believe that it takes that long for a critical patch to go through. So it WAS on a back burner. DOn't tell me that it takes that long to verify and certify etc. - 787 was brought from nothing to delivered in less than a decade...


Believe what you want. I saw it starting to be developed so I would know a little better. It WASN’T on a back burner. One of the big hang ups with new changes to crew interface is showing compliance to the new CFR 25.1302.

But again, as with some other posters, someone who doesn’t really know the facts thinks they are going to tell someone who was there what “really” happened.

Which is where it becomes fishy. Any ONE of changes to MCAS being made now - AoA disagree, sanity check, double sensor activation - would likely prevent ET crash, and those don't interface with the crew.
If you will, lets look at it from the other perspective... It took MAX just over 13 months from first flight to certification, and if any problems came up during test phase (and I don't believe there were none) were resolved on a few month timescale. 4 months between crashes should be ample time, given the urgency of post-CRASH situation.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:54 am

kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Exactly nothing was announced until the second crash; the first mention of any action was your post after ET crash.
I, for one, don't believe that it takes that long for a critical patch to go through. So it WAS on a back burner. DOn't tell me that it takes that long to verify and certify etc. - 787 was brought from nothing to delivered in less than a decade...


Believe what you want. I saw it starting to be developed so I would know a little better. It WASN’T on a back burner. One of the big hang ups with new changes to crew interface is showing compliance to the new CFR 25.1302.

But again, as with some other posters, someone who doesn’t really know the facts thinks they are going to tell someone who was there what “really” happened.

Which is where it becomes fishy. Any ONE of changes to MCAS being made now - AoA disagree, sanity check, double sensor activation - would likely prevent ET crash, and those don't interface with the crew.
If you will, lets look at it from the other perspective... It took MAX just over 13 months from first flight to certification, and if any problems came up during test phase (and I don't believe there were none) were resolved on a few month timescale. 4 months between crashes should be ample time, given the urgency of post-CRASH situation.


Read the Seattle Times article. It’s well written. I only found one factual error in it. It also supports what I’ve been saying and been challenge on. MCAS was developed to meet an S&C cert requirement not directly to minimize training differences.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/
 
speedking
Posts: 141
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:00 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:02 am

Today a planes safety is not determined by miles flown but posts in social media.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2733
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:05 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

Believe what you want. I saw it starting to be developed so I would know a little better. It WASN’T on a back burner. One of the big hang ups with new changes to crew interface is showing compliance to the new CFR 25.1302.

But again, as with some other posters, someone who doesn’t really know the facts thinks they are going to tell someone who was there what “really” happened.

Which is where it becomes fishy. Any ONE of changes to MCAS being made now - AoA disagree, sanity check, double sensor activation - would likely prevent ET crash, and those don't interface with the crew.
If you will, lets look at it from the other perspective... It took MAX just over 13 months from first flight to certification, and if any problems came up during test phase (and I don't believe there were none) were resolved on a few month timescale. 4 months between crashes should be ample time, given the urgency of post-CRASH situation.


Read the Seattle Times article. It’s well written. I only found one factual error in it. It also supports what I’ve been saying and been challenge on. MCAS was developed to meet an S&C cert requirement not directly to minimize training differences.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:05 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:06 am

BoeingGuy wrote:

The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash.

Interesting to know. One question keeps bothering me is why was not grounding recommended then? Considering you had problems with compliance to the new CFR 25.1302 so quick fix was not coming. I mean you knew at the time that there is a flaw in your equipment. Fatal flaw, with potential for more catastrophes. Don't let people use the equipment.
Last edited by ArgentoSystems on Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2733
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:06 am

speedking wrote:
Today a planes safety is not determined by miles flown but posts in social media.

or by the number of hull losses with all souls lost. WHich is somewhat proportional to social media activity
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:16 am

kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Which is where it becomes fishy. Any ONE of changes to MCAS being made now - AoA disagree, sanity check, double sensor activation - would likely prevent ET crash, and those don't interface with the crew.
If you will, lets look at it from the other perspective... It took MAX just over 13 months from first flight to certification, and if any problems came up during test phase (and I don't believe there were none) were resolved on a few month timescale. 4 months between crashes should be ample time, given the urgency of post-CRASH situation.


Read the Seattle Times article. It’s well written. I only found one factual error in it. It also supports what I’ve been saying and been challenge on. MCAS was developed to meet an S&C cert requirement not directly to minimize training differences.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.


I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.
 
speedking
Posts: 141
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:30 am

kalvado wrote:
speedking wrote:
Today a planes safety is not determined by miles flown but posts in social media.

or by the number of hull losses with all souls lost. WHich is somewhat proportional to social media activity


Yes. If one wants to look safe, stay away from social media by making planes that don't crash. Ten million miles flown safely is peanuts compared to 10k negative posts in this forum.
 
planecane
Posts: 1559
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:50 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

The software upgrade was started practically the day after the first crash.

Interesting to know. One question keeps bothering me is why was not grounding recommended then? Considering you had problems with compliance to the new CFR 25.1302 so quick fix was not coming. I mean you knew at the time that there is a flaw in your equipment. Fatal flaw, with potential for more catastrophes. Don't let people use the equipment.

Because the EAD detailed the failure and what do do to recover. It was inconceivable that after the Lion Air crash and the updated procedures ordered by the EAD that any MAX crew wouldn't recover.

Either the NNC was confusing or the update and EAD information was not adequately disseminated. My speculation is that some pilots didn't fully understand the NNC. From the way it is worded, I can see a non-native English speaker not fully understanding there intent of the instructions and not realizing that the NNC wanted them to use manual electric trim to balance the control column forces before cutting off electric trim. Probably some type of training, even an iPad course, should have been released with the EAD.

The reason it wasn't grounded after Lion Air is that MCAS by itself wasn't a fatal flaw. It was a serious flaw that became fatal when a crew didn't properly perform the intended NNC. I think it was a reasonable assumption that after the EAD was released, all MAX pilots would recognize an MCAS induced runaway stabilizer and recover.
 
kalvado
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:53 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

Read the Seattle Times article. It’s well written. I only found one factual error in it. It also supports what I’ve been saying and been challenge on. MCAS was developed to meet an S&C cert requirement not directly to minimize training differences.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.


I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.

OK, taking your word for that...

It means it took more than 4 months for those experts to realize that a single failure mechanism exists, which escalates into triple failure by design; that it has <100k hours MTBF, and it has already resulted in a crash - and nothing was done for 4 months? No calls for immediate action, no whistleblowers, no nothing?
There is no moderately exonerating explanation for that scenario as well.
 
SEU
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:55 am

planecane wrote:
kalvado wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:

It's simple fact, not any sort of bragging. If you those facts aren't acceptable to you, then I can't help you with that issue.

If we take your logic further, I would expect you wouldn't set foot on any aircraft early in their life cycle. In other words, certification alone isn't enough. Certification and thousands of flights with no serious issues isn't enough either. Quite ironic actually.

That is why proper design, safety analysis and certification - intended to catch issues early in lifecycle - regardless of possible EIS delays or contract penalties - should exist.
Getting on a plane before that many cycles are accumulated is a statement of trust to those who performed those task with due diligence. Trust - something Boeing earned for decades and lost in mere months.
ANd you may be missing the point - there were less than a million of flights with two crashes. You mean the rest of those flight are OK?
Fine.. Lets think about it in other way. Would you trust a taxi driver who is sober during 99% of the rides? Meaning working drunk only once every 2 months..


The fact remains that the MAX didn't "fall out of the sky," "commit suicide," "crash itself" or any of the other things people like to post in this thread to be overly dramatic. MCAS drastically increased the rate of occurrence of a failure mode that pilots were not adequately trained to recognize and respond to.

The actual steps to take that would have saved both aircraft were easy to perform and, as evidenced by Lion Air 043 the situation was survivable.

This post isn't defending/whitewashing/whatevering Boeing that I'm about to be accused of. The point of this post is to point out that the MAX design, even with MCAS 1.0, hasn't been shown to inherently unsafe. Had the pilots been trained for an MCAS runaway, there wouldn't have been any crashes and the aircraft wouldn't have been grounded and you would not have a problem boarding one.

Essentially the same failure mode can happen on an NG. Luckily it doesn't happen very often if at all and hopefully now pilots will recognize it and respond correctly if it does happen.


To be fair - it did push the nose into the ground. Id call that crashing itself.
 
SEU
Posts: 273
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:57 am

speedking wrote:
Today a planes safety is not determined by miles flown but posts in social media.


Or by the number of crashes within 6 months killing everyone?
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:06 am

kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.


I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.

OK, taking your word for that...

It means it took more than 4 months for those experts to realize that a single failure mechanism exists, which escalates into triple failure by design; that it has <100k hours MTBF, and it has already resulted in a crash - and nothing was done for 4 months? No calls for immediate action, no whistleblowers, no nothing?
There is no moderately exonerating explanation for that scenario as well.


For the third time, a new software design that addressed those issues was begun almost immediately after the first accident.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:23 am

MSPNWA wrote:
PW100 wrote:
That certification system and those (mere) thousands of flights are the very reason the thing is grounded. Doesn't bode well to use that as evidence that the rest of the plane is (proven) safe . . .


No, it's grounded because of a second crash that exposed a software issue.

It's not grounded because of thousands of uneventful flights and a lack of other issues being found in certification. Ironically your standard for "safe" would mean no new airplane would ever take to the skies.


You are not addressing my point. The point was that the certification system should (have) demonstrate(d) that the design was safe. Of course one can debate to death what constitutes as safe, but fact is that the two crashes revealed serious issues (MCAS 1.0) which that certification system was unable to detect. So it is very obvious that the first thing after correcting MCAS, is the question if there are perhaps other issues might have that escaped through the very same certification system. That is not politics, but engineering 101. And just in case, for those binary minds: please note that this is not claiming the thing is unsafe and that there must be other issues.

Further I never claimed any sort of "standard for safety" in my message (it was brought up by yourself). It is beyond me why you would bring that up and turn that into something against me claiming that "would mean no new airplane would ever take to the skies".
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
uta999
Posts: 905
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 9:59 am

Could Boeing not drop MCAS altogether? Could the MAX 8 fly tomorrow without it? Rather than tinker with it for months, simply unplug it.

MCAS seems to be a flawed protection device for something that would simply never happen in normal flight.
Your computer just got better
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:05 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 10:10 am

uta999 wrote:
Could Boeing not drop MCAS altogether? Could the MAX 8 fly tomorrow without it? Rather than tinker with it for months, simply unplug it.

MCAS seems to be a flawed protection device for something that would simply never happen in normal flight.

Asked and answered only a million times. Do you think they are idiots that put in a random device cause it sounded cool?

Loss of cabin pressure also " would simply never happen in normal flight" so maybe we should unplug oxygen masks too?
 
kalvado
Posts: 2733
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 11:37 am

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.

OK, taking your word for that...

It means it took more than 4 months for those experts to realize that a single failure mechanism exists, which escalates into triple failure by design; that it has <100k hours MTBF, and it has already resulted in a crash - and nothing was done for 4 months? No calls for immediate action, no whistleblowers, no nothing?
There is no moderately exonerating explanation for that scenario as well.


For the third time, a new software design that addressed those issues was begun almost immediately after the first accident.

You know, one can consider this dialog as a micro-model of what happened here. It is not so much a question of forum argument, it is more of a question in a company.
"for the third time - work begun immediately"
OK, let me put it in a broader perspective here.
Nothing was made public on MCAS re-work, and - by the virtue of situation - there are no proofs.
Then the proper question to discuss would be why there were no results. You mention changed FAR regulations for pilot-airplane (aka human-machine) interaction. But again, would those apply to bug fixes in already deployed system, which don't really affect pilots?
And the key question - was there any understanding of the urgency of the situation? Or there were dully mandated activities on resolving ongoing issues? Former is hard to believe, as Boeing was firmly standing what we call "make a safe plane even safer" ground.

You may, or may not, be at liberty to discuss situation in details. You're discussing it, somehow; and your style of discussion eerily similar to what happened with MAX.
"HIT THE DAMN SWITCHES" - or "for the third time... " may be factually correct answer, but it doesn't bring the situation any closer to resolution. If our conversation has any similarity to what was going on at Boeing, then there should be no surprise in how things played out....
 
User avatar
PixelFlight
Posts: 1018
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:21 pm

planecane wrote:
The reason it wasn't grounded after Lion Air is that MCAS by itself wasn't a fatal flaw. It was a serious flaw that became fatal when a crew didn't properly perform the intended NNC. I think it was a reasonable assumption that after the EAD was released, all MAX pilots would recognize an MCAS induced runaway stabilizer and recover.

Design engineers and pilots are by far not the only kind of peoples involved in safety. Your description is unfortunately missing a number of others peoples from requirements definition, quality assurance, safety assessment. compliance testing, and certification. It's precisely the jobs of all that peoples together to prevent a fiasco like the MCAS v1.

There failed a first time when the MCAS v1 was released for commercial operation.
There failed a second time when JT610 crashed.
There failed a third time when ET302 crashed.
The forced grounding was the only solution to avoid more killing and forcing Boeing to act differently. We then discovered that a "time and money" oriented management was actively stressing the safety activities at all level. This caused the EAD to not grounding the 737-8/9 MAX as is it should have, and instead blaming the pilots to not follow a loosely related and badly redacted NCC.

The "time and money" oriented management is the main cause of the MCAS v1 and of the triple failures to prevent it deadly commercial operation. If a proper management was in place and in the very unlikely scenario of a MCAS v1, it would have been immediately obvious that grounding was the only solution to ensure public safety. But it that case there would have been no hidden MCAS, no outdated MCAS certification documentation, and probably no so much whistleblowers pointing at management deficiencies. The NCC and pilots blaming was really a diverting path. The MCAS v2 is expected to revert the EAD NCC modification and to not require more pilot training (but extreme miss trim wheels at high speed could maybe require more pilot training on all 737, not clear to me actually).
:stirthepot: 737-8 MAX: "For all speeds higher than 220 Kts and trim set at a value of 2.5 units, the difficulity level of turning the manual trim wheel was level A (trim wheel not movable)." :stirthepot:
 
packsonflight
Posts: 386
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:34 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

Read the Seattle Times article. It’s well written. I only found one factual error in it. It also supports what I’ve been saying and been challenge on. MCAS was developed to meet an S&C cert requirement not directly to minimize training differences.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... afeguards/

Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.


I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.


According to the NYT article they Boeing intended to roll out the new MCAS software with MAX10 and retrofit the 8 and 9, so apparently they idedentifed the need for uptate, but were in no hurry to implement it.
 
User avatar
par13del
Posts: 10263
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:36 pm

packsonflight wrote:
According to the NYT article they Boeing intended to roll out the new MCAS software with MAX10 and retrofit the 8 and 9, so apparently they idedentifed the need for uptate, but were in no hurry to implement it.

So now the authorities are reviewing their documentation to see if their reasoning for the delay was sound and or reasonable and within regulations.
Time will tell.
 
smartplane
Posts: 1474
Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2018 9:23 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 12:36 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.

OK, taking your word for that...

It means it took more than 4 months for those experts to realize that a single failure mechanism exists, which escalates into triple failure by design; that it has <100k hours MTBF, and it has already resulted in a crash - and nothing was done for 4 months? No calls for immediate action, no whistleblowers, no nothing?
There is no moderately exonerating explanation for that scenario as well.


For the third time, a new software design that addressed those issues was begun almost immediately after the first accident.

Much earlier in this thread, you advised no direct knowledge of the MAX, just what you have been told - you are working on the 777X. Isn't it possible what you have been told is wrong, or you didn't hear correctly?
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 12:05 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:00 pm

packsonflight wrote:
According to the NYT article they Boeing intended to roll out the new MCAS software with MAX10 and retrofit the 8 and 9, so apparently they idedentifed the need for uptate, but were in no hurry to implement it.

Are you not confusing it with the AOA disagree light? Link, please?
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:29 pm

packsonflight wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Which has exactly nothing to do with the question of whether any modifications to MCAS got priority between two crashes. Not to mention topmost all hands on deck priority which should be expected for a fatal crash that early in the program.


I told you before. The revised design to MCAS was directed to begin almost immediately after Lionair. Experts were and are pulled off other programs to work this. Not sure how else to say it.


According to the NYT article they Boeing intended to roll out the new MCAS software with MAX10 and retrofit the 8 and 9, so apparently they idedentifed the need for uptate, but were in no hurry to implement it.


This is not correct. New software was always intended to be installed immediately across the entire fleet.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6313
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:29 pm

smartplane wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
kalvado wrote:
OK, taking your word for that...

It means it took more than 4 months for those experts to realize that a single failure mechanism exists, which escalates into triple failure by design; that it has <100k hours MTBF, and it has already resulted in a crash - and nothing was done for 4 months? No calls for immediate action, no whistleblowers, no nothing?
There is no moderately exonerating explanation for that scenario as well.


For the third time, a new software design that addressed those issues was begun almost immediately after the first accident.

Much earlier in this thread, you advised no direct knowledge of the MAX, just what you have been told - you are working on the 777X. Isn't it possible what you have been told is wrong, or you didn't hear correctly?


No, that’s not the case.
 
jomur
Posts: 348
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 26, 2019 3:24 pm

planecane wrote:
The point of this post is to point out that the MAX design, even with MCAS 1.0, hasn't been shown to inherently unsafe.


If it wasn't inherently unsafe why is it grounded worldwide then? You don't ground safe airplanes.
People on the street see its grounded and will say its unsafe to fly

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