arcticcruiser
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 1:49 pm

Bradin wrote:


Factually incorrect. Probably just over a quarter of the MAX pilots. Pilots that had not completed training are about half and rest is new hires probably still on probation.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 2:39 pm

TObound wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
The only way to be sure to not end up on a MAX on a short-haul flight will be to fly Delta, Frontier or Jetblue because they don't have them at all. This will be great for those airlines. AA, UA , Southwest and Alaska will suffer quite a bit given the UBS study. They will have to do a gigantic job to bring confidence back to the flying public. A lot of people might avoid their short-haul flights for a while if the MAX is allowed to fly again. And if there is another crash, they will not be touching airlines that fly it.


If I were the marketing Dept of those airlines, I'd advertise my safer fleet. I'm shameless like that....


Reminds me of VA with "4 engines 4 long-haul." They wound up eating some crow, didn't they?
-Doc Lightning-

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TObound
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:10 pm

DocLightning wrote:
TObound wrote:
Curiousflyer wrote:
The only way to be sure to not end up on a MAX on a short-haul flight will be to fly Delta, Frontier or Jetblue because they don't have them at all. This will be great for those airlines. AA, UA , Southwest and Alaska will suffer quite a bit given the UBS study. They will have to do a gigantic job to bring confidence back to the flying public. A lot of people might avoid their short-haul flights for a while if the MAX is allowed to fly again. And if there is another crash, they will not be touching airlines that fly it.


If I were the marketing Dept of those airlines, I'd advertise my safer fleet. I'm shameless like that....


Reminds me of VA with "4 engines 4 long-haul." They wound up eating some crow, didn't they?


Timing is everything. VS was too late with that slogan. So it was still fresh in the mind when they started inducting two holers. On the other hand, the likelihood that B6, DL and F9 inducting a new aircraft type that thunders in, a few months after EIS, is pretty low. Especially in the next few years. So if it were me, I'd certainly remind the public that my airline has a proven safe fleet.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:18 pm

Choose Delta this summer

The only "Max" we fly with is maximum safety

That would work!
 
aaexecplat
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:48 pm

DocLightning wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.


So of the four current civil programs in production (737-MAX, 747-8, 777, and 787) two of them will never turn a total program profit and that's not a problem? The 777 program, I hope, will do well. The 747-8 program may also never turn a profit and if it does it won't be very big given the anemic order book.

I think that BCA needs to have a good looking over by the larger organization.


Not to derail the thread, but do we really know what programs will be profitable? I mean even if Boeing takes it in the shorts with the MAX, one would think that the sheer number of planes already sold combined with current production rates and efficiency would allow them to still cover a substantial drag on the MAX program, right? Also...the 748 loss must be small surely? They put little development into that variant, right? The B787 on the other hand may never break even due to development, problems and early loss on production run? This all seems like a lot of grey area.
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:52 pm

On the link on the post showing Ralph Nader there is a 3 minute clip of a reporter talking about the MAX situation in which - if I remember correctly - she reports that the NTSB is "diving deep" into a review of the MAX certification process. If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

I have no idea when the MAX will be allowed to fly again by the US authorities. Some suggest that it may not be before 2020. Boeing must surely be planning to lower the production rate still further, mustn't they? At a rate of over 30pm they stand to have another 180+ frames sitting idly on the ground by 2020 unless FAA approves tMCAS 2.0 by year end and lifts the grounding.

Link to bloomberg interview: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -fly-again
Last edited by art on Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:19 pm

Absynth wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Absynth wrote:
A US-only early ungrounding will be a risky strategy. What if other regulators find issues that need to be addressed? What will happen to the planes already flying? How will the public respond? Will Boeing's response be 'making a safer plane even more safe'? An early ungrounding could backfire where the flying public might lose confidence indefinitely.

All the posters that are talking down that risk and the financial consequences seem to have forgot what happend to McDonell Douglas.

I doubt there is a US-only early ungrounding strategy.

I believe the desire would be as close to a world wide rollout as can be achieved
.

I never claimed a worldwide rollout, thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I don't see where I stuffed those words into your mouth.

I just took your phrase "a US-only early ungrounding strategy" and considered the desirability of its inverse "a worldwide rollout" without ever attributing such to you.

Absynth wrote:
But you should reread your own post where you state this as likely.

Huh? I wrote:

Revelation wrote:
So I think the idea of a worldwide rollout is a fanatasy, there is no way that will be happening.

__

Absynth wrote:
You OTOH cited a claim for July ungrounding as realistic. This is only realistic if the US goes ahead solo. There is a near zero chance they will get Europe and Canada alongside such an aggressive timeline based on what we know about at least EASA's approach.

So which one is it? July for FAA or next year for majority global rollout?

I wrote:

Revelation wrote:
I think everyone should be prepared for a slow roll.

It's clear to me that FAA will be first in the July time frame and others will roll out if/when their bureaucratic AND their political communities agree to do so.
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Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:26 pm

Revelation wrote:
Absynth wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I doubt there is a US-only early ungrounding strategy.

I believe the desire would be as close to a world wide rollout as can be achieved
.

I never claimed a worldwide rollout, thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I don't see where I stuffed those words into your mouth.

I just took your phrase "a US-only early ungrounding strategy" and considered the desirability of its inverse "a worldwide rollout" without ever attributing such to you.

Absynth wrote:
But you should reread your own post where you state this as likely.

Huh? I wrote:

Revelation wrote:
So I think the idea of a worldwide rollout is a fanatasy, there is no way that will be happening.

__

Absynth wrote:
You OTOH cited a claim for July ungrounding as realistic. This is only realistic if the US goes ahead solo. There Israel a near zero chance they will get Europe and Canada alongside such an aggressive timeline based on what we know about at least EASA's approach.

So which one is it? July for FAA or next year for majority global rollout?

I wrote:

Revelation wrote:
I think everyone should be prepared for a slow roll.

It's clear to me that FAA will be first in the July time frame and others will roll out if/when their bureaucratic AND their political communities agree to do so.


Does the CEO of Boeing only committing to the planes flying again before the end of the year not suggest to you the FAA are making things far tougher than anticipated for Boeing?

July seems very optimistic based on what I've seen lately?
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:29 pm

arcticcruiser wrote:
Bradin wrote:


Factually incorrect. Probably just over a quarter of the MAX pilots. Pilots that had not completed training are about half and rest is new hires probably still on probation.


In my defense, at the time of posting, the articles reflected those statements. They have been updated since.
 
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:29 pm

art wrote:
If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

The NTSB would make recommendations to the regulatory body who has the authority to accept, reject or modify then mandate implementation.
Wanna guess who the regulatory body is??? starts with F.
 
Jetty
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 5:52 pm

par13del wrote:
art wrote:
If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

The NTSB would make recommendations to the regulatory body who has the authority to accept, reject or modify then mandate implementation.
Wanna guess who the regulatory body is??? starts with F.

And the FAA could delegate that responsibility to Boeing. :idea:
 
art
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:00 pm

par13del wrote:
art wrote:
If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

The NTSB would make recommendations to the regulatory body who has the authority to accept, reject or modify then mandate implementation.
Wanna guess who the regulatory body is??? starts with F.


Apologies. Did not express myself too well. I'll put it another way: if NTSB finds that FAA's certification was not up to scratch, would FAA defer to their finding and act accordingly? Given that FAA appears to have relied too strongly on Boeing input in the certification process, they need to rebuild their credibility, don't they? If NTSB says the FAA certification was not justified for this or that reason and needs to be done again (or elements need to be done again), is FAA in a position not to follow their advice? I don't see how other regulatory bodies could accept FAA's actions if NTSB recommendations (if any) were not implemented.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:46 pm

art wrote:
par13del wrote:
art wrote:
If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

The NTSB would make recommendations to the regulatory body who has the authority to accept, reject or modify then mandate implementation.
Wanna guess who the regulatory body is??? starts with F.

Apologies. Did not express myself too well. I'll put it another way: if NTSB finds that FAA's certification was not up to scratch, would FAA defer to their finding and act accordingly? Given that FAA appears to have relied too strongly on Boeing input in the certification process, they need to rebuild their credibility, don't they? If NTSB says the FAA certification was not justified for this or that reason and needs to be done again (or elements need to be done again), is FAA in a position not to follow their advice? I don't see how other regulatory bodies could accept FAA's actions if NTSB recommendations (if any) were not implemented.

Yes, FAA does not have to follow NTSB advise.

Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... fety_Board ) says:

The NTSB has no legal authority to implement or impose its recommendations, which must be implemented by regulators at either the federal or state level or individual transportation companies.

Basically, NTSB provides advise and exercises influence on the aviation regulator (FAA), but FAA has no requirement to act on NTSB's advise.
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bob75013
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 6:51 pm

art wrote:
par13del wrote:
art wrote:
If NTSB discovers inadequacies, what happens? Can they force re-certification on Boeing? How long would it take to do that?

The NTSB would make recommendations to the regulatory body who has the authority to accept, reject or modify then mandate implementation.
Wanna guess who the regulatory body is??? starts with F.


Apologies. Did not express myself too well. I'll put it another way: if NTSB finds that FAA's certification was not up to scratch, would FAA defer to their finding and act accordingly? Given that FAA appears to have relied too strongly on Boeing input in the certification process, they need to rebuild their credibility, don't they? If NTSB says the FAA certification was not justified for this or that reason and needs to be done again (or elements need to be done again), is FAA in a position not to follow their advice? I don't see how other regulatory bodies could accept FAA's actions if NTSB recommendations (if any) were not implemented.



Do you think that the NTSB and FAA will talk before the NTSB makes a ruling, or do you think the NTSB wll simply spring it on them?
 
Bradin
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:16 pm

Out of curiosity, (and I'm not trying to start an A v B war here...) but the events of QF72 - how similar were they to the events that transpired here with the two 737 Max?
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 8:43 pm

Bradin wrote:
Out of curiosity, (and I'm not trying to start an A v B war here...) but the events of QF72 - how similar were they to the events that transpired here with the two 737 Max?

QF72 was an insanely erratic ADIRU generating spurious spike AoA values more than 1.2 second apart that was never anticipated in the flight computer input filter algorithm. The algorithm was corrected. The safety assessment activity was investigated and found in good condition. The event was out of the expected design requirement. It must be noted that the ADIRU exact failure mode was never understood, despite the analysis effort. The final report is long but very interesting because it cover almost every aspects of the event, including the design and safety assessment activity.
 
AC77X
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:07 pm

PixelFlight wrote:
Bradin wrote:
Out of curiosity, (and I'm not trying to start an A v B war here...) but the events of QF72 - how similar were they to the events that transpired here with the two 737 Max?

QF72 was an insanely erratic ADIRU generating spurious spike AoA values more than 1.2 second apart that was never anticipated in the flight computer input filter algorithm. The algorithm was corrected. The safety assessment activity was investigated and found in good condition. The event was out of the expected design requirement. It must be noted that the ADIRU exact failure mode was never understood, despite the analysis effort. The final report is long but very interesting because it cover almost every aspects of the event, including the design and safety assessment activity.

If I recall correctly, it may have had something to do specifically about Australia, as all 4 incidents (QF68 and QF72, which were the same aircraft, QF71, and JQ7) experienced ADIRU problems off the west coast of Australia. The 737 MAX has fallen in Indonesia and Ethiopia, which are pretty far away from each other.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:27 pm

Interesting comments today from Boeing's CFO quoted by Leeham at https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/05/stabi ... -cfo-says/

Restoring the 737 MAX brand

When talking about getting the 737 MAX back in service, Smith reiterated previous statements made by CEO Dennis Muilenburg and other company officials: Boeing is working hand-in-hand with regulators and customers. It is up to regulators when Boeing’s software fixes for the MAX’s MCAS program is certified. The company is reviewing its policies and procedures to identify improvements to avoid future tragedies. And so on.

Boeing has pulled people from across the company to work on safely returning the MAX to service. It has brought people in from outside the company, specifically for brand management and crisis management, Smith said.

“We’re very clear-eyed on the brand,” he said. “We’re putting any resources required inside and outside the company to help us restore the MAX brand, and then obviously, the company brand.”

I'd love to know more about this, in particular the timing of when such people were pulled in relative to various statements made by the CEO.

I'd love to know if the current strategy of admitting only the smallest flaw (we put too much workload on the pilots, etc) is something endorsed by these outside brand management and crisis management resources, or something those resources are working hard to change.
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planecane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting comments today from Boeing's CFO quoted by Leeham at https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/05/stabi ... -cfo-says/

Restoring the 737 MAX brand

When talking about getting the 737 MAX back in service, Smith reiterated previous statements made by CEO Dennis Muilenburg and other company officials: Boeing is working hand-in-hand with regulators and customers. It is up to regulators when Boeing’s software fixes for the MAX’s MCAS program is certified. The company is reviewing its policies and procedures to identify improvements to avoid future tragedies. And so on.

Boeing has pulled people from across the company to work on safely returning the MAX to service. It has brought people in from outside the company, specifically for brand management and crisis management, Smith said.

“We’re very clear-eyed on the brand,” he said. “We’re putting any resources required inside and outside the company to help us restore the MAX brand, and then obviously, the company brand.”

I'd love to know more about this, in particular the timing of when such people were pulled in relative to various statements made by the CEO.

I'd love to know if the current strategy of admitting only the smallest flaw (we put too much workload on the pilots, etc) is something endorsed by these outside brand management and crisis management resources, or something those resources are working hard to change.


What's the difference? The important thing is what they DO to fix the MAX not what the CEO says and why.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:34 pm

Interested wrote:
Choose Delta this summer

The only "Max" we fly with is maximum safety

That would work!

Good job Ed Bastian is the CEO and not you. ;)
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Wed Jun 05, 2019 11:49 pm

planecane wrote:
What's the difference? The important thing is what they DO to fix the MAX not what the CEO says and why.

According to Boeing they've already done what they're going to do to fix the MAX and it's all in the FAA's hands now, so I guess you'll just stop reading this thread since the important part is over now, right?

Or maybe there's more going on than just the fix?
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ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:22 am

Revelation wrote:
planecane wrote:
What's the difference? The important thing is what they DO to fix the MAX not what the CEO says and why.

According to Boeing they've already done what they're going to do to fix the MAX and it's all in the FAA's hands now, so I guess you'll just stop reading this thread since the important part is over now, right?


Is there a link with the info that they finished their work and submitted data to FAA? I keep looking for it and as of last week all the news was along the lines that Boeing is yet to submit the fix to FAA. Thank you.

The last Boeing press release (May 16)on Max is a bit confusing:
Boeing is now providing additional information to address Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) requests that include detail on how pilots interact with the airplane controls and displays in different flight scenarios. Once the requests are addressed, Boeing will work with the FAA to schedule its certification test flight and submit final certification documentation.
 
Interested
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 5:41 am

I saw an interview with the CEO where the interviewer suggested that FAA are looking deeper than Boeing anticipated into Max

Asking lots of questions etc

And the CEO pretty much said "that's good for safety" etc

It's not the quick fix they hoped would be allowed
 
MrBretz
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 6:57 am

The FAA is digging deeper. It will take longer but it is a good for our safety. Boeing will have to bite the bullet for awhile. In the end, it will be for the best.
 
StTim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:00 am

I wonder how long Boeing can continue producing the MAX at the current production rate? Surely there will come a time when the costs become unmanageable- even for a cash rich company like Boeing.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 7:53 am

aaexecplat wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The 737 Max program will probably never run at a profit in total but that is not really a problem, there is enough revenue generated elsewhere.


So of the four current civil programs in production (737-MAX, 747-8, 777, and 787) two of them will never turn a total program profit and that's not a problem? The 777 program, I hope, will do well. The 747-8 program may also never turn a profit and if it does it won't be very big given the anemic order book.

I think that BCA needs to have a good looking over by the larger organization.


Not to derail the thread, but do we really know what programs will be profitable? I mean even if Boeing takes it in the shorts with the MAX, one would think that the sheer number of planes already sold combined with current production rates and efficiency would allow them to still cover a substantial drag on the MAX program, right? Also...the 748 loss must be small surely? They put little development into that variant, right? The B787 on the other hand may never break even due to development, problems and early loss on production run? This all seems like a lot of grey area.


In regards to the 747-8 the losses are a few billions, at least 5. The production made losses, so no return on development. The KC46 has been loss making up to now., I assume fewer billions than the 747-8.
The point to the 737MAX is not that it will make a loss overall, but that it is responsible to provide the brunt of the cash flow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:31 am

StTim wrote:
I wonder how long Boeing can continue producing the MAX at the current production rate? Surely there will come a time when the costs become unmanageable- even for a cash rich company like Boeing.

Wondering the same. Their MAX related expenses amounts to 4B per month. Last time I checked they had less than 10B. Sure they can borrow more...
 
ArgentoSystems
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:39 am

mjoelnir wrote:
The point to the 737MAX is not that it will make a loss overall, but that it is responsible to provide the brunt of the cash flow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

It is very much the point. It is not only the brunt of the cashflow, it is also the brunt of profits.
 
VanBosch
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:24 am

ArgentoSystems wrote:
StTim wrote:
I wonder how long Boeing can continue producing the MAX at the current production rate? Surely there will come a time when the costs become unmanageable- even for a cash rich company like Boeing.

Wondering the same. Their MAX related expenses amounts to 4B per month. Last time I checked they had less than 10B. Sure they can borrow more...



It’s a fine line, because once it’s allowed fly again customers will want the Aircraft as fast as possible.
 
xmp125a
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:28 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
Oh wait, no. There is no excuse for over speed in a modern airliner.
Lion Air, I give the pilots some credit as while they failed basic memory item(s), it was at least a novel situation presented to them by a dysfunctional airline failing to fix the issue. Ethiopia has no excuse. MCAS has nothing to do with that one, as it never should have been active. I don't think any aircraft would have made it back with that level of piloting, as most react poorly to pushing past Vmo as far as you physically can.


Here you are wrong. I can easily see Boeing witness on the stand describing exactly how MCAS works and that is it safe, "making already safe plane safer" logic, etc, etc.

Then the plaintiff's attorney asks simple question: "given the exactly same breakdowns (AoA sensor) and exactly the same pilot responses, would this aircraft crash if it had been 737NG?"
Then the witness squirms and sweats, and finally speaks in low voice "No.".
And the attorney again "So there WAS difference in behaviour of NG and MAX variants, a deadly difference, so to say?"
Witness sweats and squirms and in low voice again "I would not say deadly...and training..." Attorney: "Well 350 people were killed, can you please answer". Witness, quietly: Yes".
And then the attorney delivers the final blow "So despite deadly differences between the two, you did everything you could to make aircraft certified WITHOUT any training in differences?!"

Case closed, damages won.
 
JibberJim
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:57 am

Revelation wrote:
Interesting comments today from Boeing's CFO quoted by Leeham at https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/05/stabi ... -cfo-says/

Boeing has pulled people from across the company to work on safely returning the MAX to service. It has brought people in from outside the company, specifically for brand management and crisis management, Smith said.

I'd love to know more about this, in particular the timing of when such people were pulled in relative to various statements made by the CEO.


Interviewer - so as the crashes showed up at its most favourable interpretation serious weaknesses in your understanding of how a pilot would react to the new Max aircraft and at its worse some huge engineering failures it sounds good that you've brought in additional external expertise to help resolve this, exactly what skills do they bring?
CFO - Well they're very good at Social Media...

Brand and crisis management are important skills - one of their important roles is not getting the CFO talking about how they've such a crap ^brand^ that they need them - the only thing Boeing execs should be talking about it is engineering excellence, sure the audience for this wasn't the public - but the attention will be.
 
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PixelFlight
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:24 pm

AC77X wrote:
PixelFlight wrote:
Bradin wrote:
Out of curiosity, (and I'm not trying to start an A v B war here...) but the events of QF72 - how similar were they to the events that transpired here with the two 737 Max?

QF72 was an insanely erratic ADIRU generating spurious spike AoA values more than 1.2 second apart that was never anticipated in the flight computer input filter algorithm. The algorithm was corrected. The safety assessment activity was investigated and found in good condition. The event was out of the expected design requirement. It must be noted that the ADIRU exact failure mode was never understood, despite the analysis effort. The final report is long but very interesting because it cover almost every aspects of the event, including the design and safety assessment activity.

If I recall correctly, it may have had something to do specifically about Australia, as all 4 incidents (QF68 and QF72, which were the same aircraft, QF71, and JQ7) experienced ADIRU problems off the west coast of Australia. The 737 MAX has fallen in Indonesia and Ethiopia, which are pretty far away from each other.

QF68 and QF72 used the same LTN101 ADIRU Serial N° 4167. The first event was only detected later in the QF72 investigation, because it did not cause any effect on flight control system.
QF71 used a similar LTN101 ADIRU Serial N° 4122. Again, this event was only detected later in the QF72 investigation, because it did not cause any effect on flight control system.
JQ7 was suspected by an AIRcraft Maintenance ANalysis database search on a sample of 248 aircraft included 48 operators, and found as the only potential match, but "a detailed examination of the available evidence concluded that this occurrence was unrelated to the three known data-spike occurrences"

From the final report:
For a ‘hazardous’ effect level, the certification guidance material stated that the
probability should be no more than ‘extremely remote’, which was nominally
equivalent to a probability of 10 -7 to 10 -9 per flight hour. The FCPC design
limitation only existed on A330/A340 aircraft, and it had existed since the aircraft
types commenced operations in 1992. However, the 7 October 2008 occurrence was
the only known case of a pitch-down command due to incorrect AOA data from one
ADIRU in over 28 million flying hours on A330/A340 aircraft. This equates to a
probability of less than 3.6 × 10 -8 per flight hour, which is within the recommended
range for ‘hazardous’ effects.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 8425
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:31 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
The point to the 737MAX is not that it will make a loss overall, but that it is responsible to provide the brunt of the cash flow at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

It is very much the point. It is not only the brunt of the cashflow, it is also the brunt of profits.


You should not talk about profits in regards to the Boeing accounts, they are anyway fixed through the special accounting system. Extra costs will be deferred to later years. But cash flow is king at Boeing and their investors. Lower cash flow and there will be lower dividends and no stock buy backs.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:05 pm

Interested wrote:
I saw an interview with the CEO where the interviewer suggested that FAA are looking deeper than Boeing anticipated into Max

Asking lots of questions etc

And the CEO pretty much said "that's good for safety" etc

It's not the quick fix they hoped would be allowed


I think MCAS and the way Boeing aircraft were certified in recent years have become 2 topics.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ArgentoSystems
Posts: 313
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:24 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
You should not talk about profits in regards to the Boeing accounts, they are anyway fixed through the special accounting system. Extra costs will be deferred to later years. But cash flow is king at Boeing and their investors. Lower cash flow and there will be lower dividends and no stock buy backs.


What you wrote does not make any sense. If an airplane program costs more than revenues from sales, no amount of creative accounting will be able to alter that. You may defer costs by few years to make an illusion of profits in a given a year, but the reality will catch up with you sooner or later. Just ask Enron, they will know.

Maybe you don't understands that dividends and buybacks happen from net profit money?
 
Agrajag
Posts: 69
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:24 pm

Make a safe aeroplane safer

No techical gaps

If this still the company line?
The plural of anecdote is anecdotes, not data.
Slartibartfast had a point
 
mjoelnir
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Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:00 pm

ArgentoSystems wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
You should not talk about profits in regards to the Boeing accounts, they are anyway fixed through the special accounting system. Extra costs will be deferred to later years. But cash flow is king at Boeing and their investors. Lower cash flow and there will be lower dividends and no stock buy backs.


What you wrote does not make any sense. If an airplane program costs more than revenues from sales, no amount of creative accounting will be able to alter that. You may defer costs by few years to make an illusion of profits in a given a year, but the reality will catch up with you sooner or later. Just ask Enron, they will know.

Maybe you don't understands that dividends and buybacks happen from net profit money?


As it is, Boeing has declared billions of profit they still have to make. 22 billions only in regard to the 787 program, with the number for other programs unknown. Pointing that out, one is pointed to cashflow being the real measuring stick. So as long as investors follow free cash flow only, restriction of cash flow and therefore restriction on payouts and share buy backs should lead to an reevaluation of Boeings position.

With 4000 orders the 737 MAX program has to move someday into being profitable, until than, extra costs get just deferred.
 
sillystrings
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 7:06 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting comments today from Boeing's CFO quoted by Leeham at https://leehamnews.com/2019/06/05/stabi ... -cfo-says/

Restoring the 737 MAX brand

When talking about getting the 737 MAX back in service, Smith reiterated previous statements made by CEO Dennis Muilenburg and other company officials: Boeing is working hand-in-hand with regulators and customers. It is up to regulators when Boeing’s software fixes for the MAX’s MCAS program is certified. The company is reviewing its policies and procedures to identify improvements to avoid future tragedies. And so on.

Boeing has pulled people from across the company to work on safely returning the MAX to service. It has brought people in from outside the company, specifically for brand management and crisis management, Smith said.

“We’re very clear-eyed on the brand,” he said. “We’re putting any resources required inside and outside the company to help us restore the MAX brand, and then obviously, the company brand.”

I'd love to know more about this, in particular the timing of when such people were pulled in relative to various statements made by the CEO.

I'd love to know if the current strategy of admitting only the smallest flaw (we put too much workload on the pilots, etc) is something endorsed by these outside brand management and crisis management resources, or something those resources are working hard to change.


I can't help but wonder how many posts in this topic are the result of this crisis management effort...
 
ZKCIF
Posts: 402
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 8:18 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:16 pm

Sillystrings: I can't help but wonder how many posts in this topic are the result of this crisis management effort...
Touche, my friend. That's the sentence of the year on our site.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1345
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:17 pm

My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.
 
bgm
Posts: 2136
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 9:37 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:40 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.


Are you out of your mind? Who on this thread is hoping for another 737 to crash?!
████ ███ █ ███████ ██ █ █████ ██ ████ [redacted]
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1345
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:47 pm

bgm wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.


Are you out of your mind? Who on this thread is hoping for another 737 to crash?!


Uh several people have said the airlines without the Max should brag and advertise that they don't operate it. It may have been deleted by now but someone had posted that they hoped a Max crashed in the US.
 
ZKCIF
Posts: 402
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2010 8:18 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:52 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.


Please give quotes for your statement that somebody is craving for a crash. Administrators will hopefully take action.
What more citing do we need for the discussed FACTS that:
1) 737 MAX is not flying currently?
2) 737 MAX had at least one major issue?
3) When (at the moment) you are investing into new parts but do not get revenue from delivered goods, your balance is shrinking? (The 120 MAXes currently parked and waiting for delivery are eating up Boeing's cash. Of course, they will get delivered, but what about the CURRENT cash?)
4) Boeing's PR has been botched?
5) Boeing's reputation has been damaged?

Feel free not to answer. Your silence may tell more than words.

Respectfully,
ZK-CIF

BTW, such threads help some users mature. So at least they serve educational purpose.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1345
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 3:59 pm

ZKCIF wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.


Please give quotes for your statement that somebody is craving for a crash. Administrators will hopefully take action.
What more citing do we need for the discussed FACTS that:
1) 737 MAX is not flying currently?
2) 737 MAX had at least one major issue?
3) When (at the moment) you are investing into new parts but do not get revenue from delivered goods, your balance is shrinking? (The 120 MAXes currently parked and waiting for delivery are eating up Boeing's cash. Of course, they will get delivered, but what about the CURRENT cash?)
4) Boeing's PR has been botched?
5) Boeing's reputation has been damaged?

Feel free not to answer. Your silence may tell more than words.

Respectfully,
ZK-CIF

BTW, such threads help some users mature. So at least they serve educational purpose.


If people would stick to the facts it would be fine. But so many are speculating and act as if they are speaking the truth. You do not know the intentions of the FAA, NTSB, or Boeing's management team. There is no one evil at the Boeing company and making them sound like some supervillain in a movie is just ridiculous.
 
cat3land
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:56 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:00 pm

Something strikes me : Everybody seems to be focusing on what Civil Aviation Authorities, worldwide, will decide to allow the MAX to return into service.
But this is not AT ALL the case . The people who will decide MAX's fate, are the Public and the Passengers. If a majority of them refuse to fly on a MAX, it will be the end of this aircraft. Passengers won't forget the 346 dead people as soon and easily
as the Aerospace industry believes.
 
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gatibosgru
Posts: 1541
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:07 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
My goodness at the ignorance going on in this thread. I only check it every few weeks to see if there is any factual news. If it doesn't have a cite, I won't believe it. None of you have the privilege of knowing Boeing's up to date financial stats nor do any of you know the FAA timeline for putting the Max back in the sky. And the ones gleefully hoping for more bad news or another crash are sickening.


Sorry people are being mean to your favorite manufacturer :(
@DadCelo
 
art
Posts: 2914
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:18 pm

JibberJim wrote:


...the only thing Boeing execs should be talking about it is engineering excellence....


Mmmm... these are the very people who suppressed/over-ruled/ignored those with engineering excellence, aren't they? IMO taking people miles above the ground in a machine is a risky thing to do. It seems to me that the quest for profit is the obsession of Boeing management and that in this instance putting profit first and safety second resulted in the risk of flying passengers high in the sky being increased.

FAA should have insisted on safety first. They did not. With fatal consequences. Shame on them.

The controlling minds at Boeing insisted on profit first. With fatal consequences. Shame on them.
Last edited by art on Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:18 pm

cat3land wrote:
Something strikes me : Everybody seems to be focusing on what Civil Aviation Authorities, worldwide, will decide to allow the MAX to return into service.
But this is not AT ALL the case . The people who will decide MAX's fate, are the Public and the Passengers. If a majority of them refuse to fly on a MAX, it will be the end of this aircraft. Passengers won't forget the 346 dead people as soon and easily
as the Aerospace industry believes.


No, people are not that dramatic. Lots of cars have had issues that killed many people but didn't stop people from continuing to buy or ride in them. Everyone was fine flying on the Max in the US and Canada up until the grounding and they had been grounded throughout the rest of the world for some time already. People still fly with airlines that have crashed planes and killed far more people than the two Max crashes. And we don't even know what the breakdown of the blame will be yet.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 1345
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:20 pm

art wrote:
FAA should have insisted on safety first. They did not. With fatal consequences. Shame on them.

The controlling minds at Boeing insisted on profit first. With fatal consequences. Shame on them.


Cite?
 
trini81
Posts: 7
Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:26 pm

Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounded Worldwide Q2 2019

Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:31 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
cat3land wrote:
Something strikes me : Everybody seems to be focusing on what Civil Aviation Authorities, worldwide, will decide to allow the MAX to return into service.
But this is not AT ALL the case . The people who will decide MAX's fate, are the Public and the Passengers. If a majority of them refuse to fly on a MAX, it will be the end of this aircraft. Passengers won't forget the 346 dead people as soon and easily
as the Aerospace industry believes.


No, people are not that dramatic. Lots of cars have had issues that killed many people but didn't stop people from continuing to buy or ride in them. Everyone was fine flying on the Max in the US and Canada up until the grounding and they had been grounded throughout the rest of the world for some time already. People still fly with airlines that have crashed planes and killed far more people than the two Max crashes. And we don't even know what the breakdown of the blame will be yet.


Could you cite your source please... cause the following articles indicate that pax presently would try the avoid the Max when they start back flying for a period of time:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/07/barclay ... 7-max.html

https://news.yahoo.com/nobody-wants-fly ... 47516.html

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