Thomas Cook Group have set a deadline of May 7th, for interest in the airline arm of the business.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thoma ... =applenews

Potential takers include Indigo Partners, Lufthansa, Easyjet and IAG.

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

mattyfitzg wrote:

Thomas Cook Group have set a deadline of May 7th, for interest in the airline arm of the business.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thoma ... =applenews

Potential takers include Indigo Partners, Lufthansa, Easyjet and IAG.

It will be interesting to see whether anyone comes forward. I imagine Lufthansa would like to bid for the Condor part of the business, but will the EU allow that. There wouldn't be much competition between Germany and many European sun destinations. It would just be Lufthansa Group, TUI, EasyJet, and Lauda (if it ramps up a sizeable operation).

As for the UK Thomas Cook side, I cant see IAG going for them as the article suggests. Hopefully someone other than EasyJet will go for them to keep a bit of variety. I suppose it would have to be someone interested in acquiring some long-haul routes at Gatwick, Manchester and Glasgow.

I'd hope the brand could be kept, but I suppose it depends who the new owners are.

BritishB747 wrote:

mattyfitzg wrote:

Thomas Cook Group have set a deadline of May 7th, for interest in the airline arm of the business.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thoma ... =applenews

Potential takers include Indigo Partners, Lufthansa, Easyjet and IAG.

It will be interesting to see whether anyone comes forward. I imagine Lufthansa would like to bid for the Condor part of the business, but will the EU allow that. There wouldn't be much competition between Germany and many European sun destinations. It would just be Lufthansa Group, TUI, EasyJet, and Lauda (if it ramps up a sizeable operation).

As for the UK Thomas Cook side, I cant see IAG going for them as the article suggests. Hopefully someone other than EasyJet will go for them to keep a bit of variety. I suppose it would have to be someone interested in acquiring some long-haul routes at Gatwick, Manchester and Glasgow.

I'd hope the brand could be kept, but I suppose it depends who the new owners are.

Would it be a long shot to perhaps hope that IAG might want to expand LEVEL by absorbing TCX??? Or perhaps just their general BA Holiday ops by introducing flights from MAN, BHX etc.

Easyjet, again another long shot but we might eventually see some long-haul! or even mid-haul further than Egypt or the Canaries.

I thought VS would be the most obvious choice for their UK long haul operation out of MAN in particular, but also LGW and GLA?

For those who haven't read the article - it suggests that Indigo Partners and Lufthansa are the most interested - with IAG and easyJet not so much. There is not even as much as a indication if VS/DL have any interest.

It would suggest to me that it will be split up - possibly long haul going to LH and short haul to Indigo (probably as part of Wizz) - but as ever, depends on the money!

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

For those who haven't read the article - it suggests that Indigo Partners and Lufthansa are the most interested - with IAG and easyJet not so much. There is not even as much as a indication if VS/DL have any interest.

It would suggest to me that it will be split up - possibly long haul going to LH and short haul to Indigo (probably as part of Wizz) - but as ever, depends on the money!

TCG stated they would prefer not to have the airline split up, because they'll still need the airline to fly TCG pax on package holidays.

8herveg wrote:

I thought VS would be the most obvious choice for their UK long haul operation out of MAN in particular, but also LGW and GLA?

Wouldn't that lead to competition issues? It amuses and confuses me that whenever an EU airline is mooted for sale, we hear a chorus of "Can't be IAG/AF-KLM/LF, because, competition" but nobody ever makes the same argument against VS or U2 acquiring the airline.

I should think in TC's case, either VS or U2 acquiring them would lead to more competition issues than IAG acquiring them.

This sale has come at the wrong time for VS. I have no doubt they are interested, but, when they have just forked out for Flybe, their financial hands are likely tied.

If LH gets hold of MT, then a question mark hands over the UK operation. But, would the competition watchdogs allow it. For long haul in particular, it means the LH Group will have a virtual monopoly over home based long haul ex-Germany?

If Indigo, they may keep operations as they are. I don’t see a merger to Wizz as MT and Wizz have 2 very different customer profiles, markets and ethos.

IAG, well, if they get hold of it then MAN can kiss it’s long haul operation goodbye. History shows they have no interest in regional based ops and the purchase will be all about Gatwick, it’s plain to see.

Overall, not a very inspiring bunch of investors, but, that’s business I suppose.

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

It would suggest to me that it will be split up - possibly long haul going to LH and short haul to Indigo (probably as part of Wizz) - but as ever, depends on the money!

From a customer PoV, integrating Thomas Cook (and maybe Condor) short-haul in Wizz Air would be very interesting.

W6 has been increasingly making paths into the Western European market (e.g. LTN base to Southern Europe or Norway) so it would make them a bigger player to compete with Ryanair and easyJet.

For clarity, Thomas Cook (post airline sale) wouldn’t have to rely on one airline to provide airlift. Given common investor in Fosun, Club Med operates in a similar way.

SCQ83 wrote:

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

It would suggest to me that it will be split up - possibly long haul going to LH and short haul to Indigo (probably as part of Wizz) - but as ever, depends on the money!

From a customer PoV, integrating Thomas Cook (and maybe Condor) short-haul in Wizz Air would be very interesting.

W6 has been increasingly making paths into the Western European market (e.g. LTN base to Southern Europe or Norway) so it would make them a bigger player to compete with Ryanair and easyJet.

As someone said earlier though, Thomas Cook Group have stated they want the new owners of the airline to still shuttle holiday pax, so throwing TCX over to Eastern Europe would be unlikely.

I’d say if it were IAG they’d play their cards with LEVEL down in Gatwick, or maybe LH with Eurowings in the UK.

eagles94 wrote:

As someone said earlier though, Thomas Cook Group have stated they want the new owners of the airline to still shuttle holiday pax, so throwing TCX over to Eastern Europe would be unlikely.

I’d say if it were IAG they’d play their cards with LEVEL down in Gatwick, or maybe LH with Eurowings in the UK.

It wouldn't be throwing TCX to East Europe, it would be most likely throwing it to Wizzair UK, a Luton based airline. If you think Level or Eurowings are a possibility, then you'd have to consider Wizzair UK too. They all have the same business model, but Wizzair has a bigger presence in the UK when compared to the other two LCC..

Very difficult as the German market is different to the UK and what would be an acceptable solution in one, would probably be a no-go in the other. So without a split of the operations, maybe they just keep the airline. (Imho a good idea if you look at the last 2 years)

seahawk wrote:

Very difficult as the German market is different to the UK and what would be an acceptable solution in one, would probably be a no-go in the other. So without a split of the operations, maybe they just keep the airline. (Imho a good idea if you look at the last 2 years)

In reality it is more like 4 different businesses:

- UK long-haul
- UK short-haul
- Germany long-haul
- Germany short-haul

eagles94 wrote:

I’d say if it were IAG they’d play their cards with LEVEL down in Gatwick, or maybe LH with Eurowings in the UK.

I don’t know if IAG wants to go down that road (ie. messing with the unions).
Gatwick is cheap as it is. Does LEVEL bring costs THAT down? It’s becoming an a.net myth.
One type for short haul (A320 series) and one type for Long haul (777). The long haul fleet, small as it is, does have 2 types of config, with and without First.
That means some LGW destinations do support/require/have demand for FIRST.
Not sure if adding LEVEL to the mix will help drop costs or if it will just add complexity and annoyance within BA staff.
It just doesn’t seem like the textbook example to LEVELize...

Why wouldn’t AFKL be interested? In partnership with Delta it would be a nice foothold into Germany and they could inter grate the rest of Thomas cook in their own businesses and virgin.

If Wizz Air takes over the short-haul operation and Lufthansa the long-haul, I could see W6 keeping the Condor brand for short-haul (à la Ryanair with Ryanair/Lauda) and Condor long-haul being diluted into Eurowings.

eagles94 wrote:

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

Boeing74741R wrote:

eagles94 wrote:

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

In terms of security for the staff, i'd imagine someone like Easyjet would be a lot more favourable, with the aircraft being Airbus' would the majority not be kept on to keep compensate for the addition of the new aircraft.

I'm sure for many TCX staff the uncertainty is uncomfortably familiar, with many being ex-Monarch, and many being ex-Caledonian/JMC/Airtours/MyTravel.

EDIT: Referring to the TCUK mainly.

I’d love to see an Indigo buyout with an F9 codeshare. With this in mind, Thomas Cook might be able to get their hands onto WOW’s market share.

vhtje wrote:

8herveg wrote:

I thought VS would be the most obvious choice for their UK long haul operation out of MAN in particular, but also LGW and GLA?

Wouldn't that lead to competition issues? It amuses and confuses me that whenever an EU airline is mooted for sale, we hear a chorus of "Can't be IAG/AF-KLM/LF, because, competition" but nobody ever makes the same argument against VS or U2 acquiring the airline.

VS doesn't have the marketshare of BA. U2 has no long-haul at all. I don't expect that EU competition reviews are utterly random.

Unless there is a management buy-out with the help of VC money, I would say the Thomas Cook Airlines name would very likely disappear, especially in the UK. It is a muddled brand anyway.

Wizz UK already competes rather robustly with Ryanair and easyJet at Luton on Western European routes - including sun routes like Brindisi and Larnaca. They have also been very clear recently they are happy with the UK market and are prepared to expand here.

Thomas Cook (tour operator) doesn't need an airline to operate. As I said, they have a common investor in Club Med - which only operates the hotels and puts packages together on whichever airline... Similarly with OTA's who package together hotel inventory with airline seats. Thomas Cook would fall somewhere between the two.

Boeing74741R wrote:

eagles94 wrote:

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

Unless there is a management buy-out with the help of VC money, I would say the Thomas Cook Airlines name would very likely disappear, especially in the UK. It is a muddled brand anyway.

Wizz UK already competes rather robustly with Ryanair and easyJet at Luton on Western European routes - including sun routes like Brindisi and Larnaca. They have also been very clear recently they are happy with the UK market and are prepared to expand here.

Thomas Cook (tour operator) doesn't need an airline to operate. As I said, they have a common investor in Club Med - which only operates the hotels and puts packages together on whichever airline... Similarly with OTA's who package together hotel inventory with airline seats. Thomas Cook would fall somewhere between the two.

Boeing74741R wrote:

eagles94 wrote:

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

And what do you think they'll do with the 330's/Long Haul??
Do you think Wizzair would really commit to LGW MAN BHX EMA etc...

mattyfitzg wrote:

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

Unless there is a management buy-out with the help of VC money, I would say the Thomas Cook Airlines name would very likely disappear, especially in the UK. It is a muddled brand anyway.

Wizz UK already competes rather robustly with Ryanair and easyJet at Luton on Western European routes - including sun routes like Brindisi and Larnaca. They have also been very clear recently they are happy with the UK market and are prepared to expand here.

Thomas Cook (tour operator) doesn't need an airline to operate. As I said, they have a common investor in Club Med - which only operates the hotels and puts packages together on whichever airline... Similarly with OTA's who package together hotel inventory with airline seats. Thomas Cook would fall somewhere between the two.

Boeing74741R wrote:

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

And what do you think they'll do with the 330's/Long Haul??
Do you think Wizzair would really commit to LGW MAN BHX EMA etc...

Wizzair have NEOs, could always just flog those across the Atlantic unless of course they wish to absorb the 330’s too, and continue the popular Caribbean/Mexico/Orlando routes.

SCQ83 wrote:

seahawk wrote:

Very difficult as the German market is different to the UK and what would be an acceptable solution in one, would probably be a no-go in the other. So without a split of the operations, maybe they just keep the airline. (Imho a good idea if you look at the last 2 years)

In reality it is more like 4 different businesses:

- UK long-haul
- UK short-haul
- Germany long-haul
- Germany short-haul

I think this is a good point - as the general public has no or limited visibility as to the proposed method of sale (ie how are Thomas Cook arranging the sale).

To that, I think we can add a Scandinavian airline business and also the central tour operator business.

Taking the business units mentioned in SCQ83’s post, I assume Lufthansa would be a logical purchaser for the German short and long haul business.

On the UK side, it is less certain. IAG have been mentioned, but I expect they have limited to no interest in anything outside Thomas Cook’s slot portfolio at LGW.

A more likely scenario would be one of EasyJet or Jet2 (for the short haul business) and Virgin Atlantic for the long haul (which is a relatively small subset of the overall business).

Analysts at Goodbody said the most likely initial outcome was the sale of the Condor long-haul business to Lufthansa, but that they were concerned about what would happen to the competitive short-haul unit.

From: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/indigo-j ... 0502-00330

If the airline was split up, as in the long-haul was bought by one party and the short-haul another, what happens to the employees?

Anyone have details of Thomas Cook's existing LHR slot portfolio? Are the slots owned or are they leased?

DL747400 wrote:

Anyone have details of Thomas Cook's existing LHR slot portfolio? Are the slots owned or are they leased?

Thomas Cooks LHR slot portfolio is non existent, they don’t fly there.

LuxuryTravelled wrote:

Unless there is a management buy-out with the help of VC money, I would say the Thomas Cook Airlines name would very likely disappear, especially in the UK. It is a muddled brand anyway.

Wizz UK already competes rather robustly with Ryanair and easyJet at Luton on Western European routes - including sun routes like Brindisi and Larnaca. They have also been very clear recently they are happy with the UK market and are prepared to expand here.

Thomas Cook (tour operator) doesn't need an airline to operate. As I said, they have a common investor in Club Med - which only operates the hotels and puts packages together on whichever airline... Similarly with OTA's who package together hotel inventory with airline seats. Thomas Cook would fall somewhere between the two.

Boeing74741R wrote:

eagles94 wrote:

So it’s not as bleak as everybody first thought! Glad to see we’ll have TCX around for more years to come

There's no guarantee the Thomas Cook name will still adorn planes after the sale and nor is it a given the airlines in their current form will remain unchanged. For example, if easyJet were to successfully bid for the airlines I can see them axing any routes that duplicate their existing network.

Whatever happens, my thoughts are with all the hardworking staff as imminent takeovers are never easy times and especially without knowing what the plans of the new regime are.

Imho this is very short sighted. The own airlines gives the flexibility and also a healthy level of price control, especially with the number of independent holidays airlines in Europe shrinking fast. Just have a major crisis in one popular holiday destination, they should not believe that it would be as easy switching customers to other countries when you have no airline. Even if the airlines would switch capacity as you need, it will be more expensive and if you get full refund on the non needed seats is very questionable. As a tour operator you pay for everything from strikes, over sudden insolvencies to cancelled flights. TC should have learned that lesson when AB went bust and the own airline was very valuable.

Sure your own airline will probably not contribute to your margins when things are going fine with purchased seats, but it also saves your margins when the purchased seats are hard to get or expensive.

eagles94 wrote:

DL747400 wrote:

Anyone have details of Thomas Cook's existing LHR slot portfolio? Are the slots owned or are they leased?

Thomas Cooks LHR slot portfolio is non existent, they don’t fly there.

Ahh, thanks for the clarification! I was looking at their route map and saw LHR and LGW when I zoomed in on London, but now I see that their map legend indicates that both airports are served by their "partner airlines."

https://www.thomascookairlines.com/en/e ... we-fly.jsp

MIflyer12 wrote:

vhtje wrote:

8herveg wrote:

I thought VS would be the most obvious choice for their UK long haul operation out of MAN in particular, but also LGW and GLA?

Wouldn't that lead to competition issues? It amuses and confuses me that whenever an EU airline is mooted for sale, we hear a chorus of "Can't be IAG/AF-KLM/LF, because, competition" but nobody ever makes the same argument against VS or U2 acquiring the airline.

VS doesn't have the marketshare of BA. U2 has no long-haul at all. I don't expect that EU competition reviews are utterly random.

BA hardly has any marketshare out of MAN. VS, on the other hand...

U2 had no long haul, that is true, but it certainly does compete with Thomas Cook on the bucket-and-spade routes to the Mediterranean - more than BA does, I should think. U2 also competes with TC on European routes (as, obviously, does BA).

I wasn't referring to what the competition authorities review; I was referring to the posts on this forum. Sorry for not being clearer.

M&A acquisitions can go either way.

I feel for the uncertainty the staff of airlines such as Air Transat and Thomas Cook must be experiencing with these recent announcements.

Especially in view of some of the more recent business happenings in the European Hemisphere.

I had heard that easy and virgin were going to team up . Vs for long easy for short . What about Air France klm . Getting slots in Frankfurt would be an advantage for them

As I said earlier - goodbye to the last scheduled pax 757 and 767 service in Europe.

I don’t think Virgin are in any position to make a second acquisition in a year. The bean counters will be kicking themselves.

I could see condors 767 being replaced but there’s a good chance that 757 could be around a while longer . Hopefully hold out til the mom

Saw this reported in several no-name sites in March.
Now it's found its way to Reuters, so starting to take it a bit more seriously.



https://www.reuters.com/article/condor- ... SL5N17P1FI

The crux seems to be whether LH wants to take on $800M more debt + a longhaul fleet likely to need a refresh in short order.

Long time rumor. They'd need some government antitrust permit and are said to only want the long range routes.
LH wants to sell their catering company. Looks like they need money for "something".
Funny that Condor belonged to LH for so long. Who sold them back then?

Said also this controversial claim:

"sources recently told Reuters that it was also eyeing Scandinavian carrier SAS and Brussels Airlines. "

Any credibility on the article?

Not that credible when they already own Brussels Airlines !

This article is three years old. Date of publication was April 22, 2016. We'll see if LH is permitted to put DE back into the LH group.

That article is from 2016. Before LH got a big part of AB and took control of SN.

At the moment LH is probably interested in Condor, but in the end it is very questionable that authorities would allow even more assets and slots to move to LH in the German market.

Maybe the brand could return and Eurowings long haul could become Condor - similar to Edelweiss and Swiss.

1989worstyear wrote:

As I said earlier - goodbye to the last scheduled pax 757 and 767 service in Europe.

Jet2 still have 757's. They're getting rid of 3 this year at the end of the summer season, but the other 8 look set to continue in service for a bit longer.

Boeing74741R wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

As I said earlier - goodbye to the last scheduled pax 757 and 767 service in Europe.

Jet2 still have 757's. They're getting rid of 3 this year at the end of the summer season, but the other 5 look set to continue in service for a bit longer.

There will be 8 in service. Not 5. 11 757 currently, 3 removed = 8.

Oh and whilst we are on the subject of Jet2 you need to look at their history. They've got to where they are by not buying airlines, investing in airlines that are failing, but rather letting them fail so that they can pick up the slack. XL Airways, Fly Globespan, BMI Baby, Monarch. I doubt they'll pick up a vested interest in Thomas Cook when they could just let them go and pick up the slack themselves without any of the risk.

Maybe a carve up between Lufthansa and easyjet again . Lufthansa get the long haul and easy the short haul to satisfy the comp authorities

eagles94 wrote:

I don’t think Virgin are in any position to make a second acquisition in a year. The bean counters will be kicking themselves.

Virgin Atlantic might not. But they migh have 51% of the money if others put 49%.. Or even just 20% from the Virgin Group (not the airline) if AF/KLM 31% and DL 49%... Same owners than VS,

That of course if they are interested on growing MAN/LGW overnight. They might even use Connect Airways for the operation as there is "some" shorthaul flying involved...

LAX772LR probably just cite the wrong website. Here's the updated one:

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 23671.html

Hopefully they wont sell it to LH. For Condor it would be the worst case, because LH just wants the slots for Eurowings.
But nevertheless our German authority "Bundeskartellamt" wouldn't allow a takeover.

"Bundeskartellamt" would probably not allow SEA, CUN, MLE, CPT, MRU, BGI, YYC*, YYZ*, YVR* and that is 9 of 39 long haul Condor destinations. None of the destinations are major Condor destinations from FRA except CUN which is slightly bigger than the rest. So “YES” in theory Lufthansa could take over Condor long haul unit and there is also MUC, DUS from which Condor also flies long haul.

"Bundeskartellamt" IS THERE TO PROTECT MARKET, NOT LUFTHANSA OR ANYBODY ELSE!