DobboDobbo
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 09, 2019 8:46 pm

jomur wrote:
flyhi wrote:
and now it seems Virgin's interest in Thomas Cook's UK longhaul operation has come to light

https://news.sky.com/story/virgin-atlan ... e-11715547


I suspect it could fall foul of competiton rules as Virgin already flies to most of the destinations TC long haul does.


Perhaps on MAN-MCO where it would leave a large market with relatively few residual alternative carriers and where there are relatively few alternative UK departure points.

For the likes of MAN-JFK/LAX/BOS/SFO/SEA the markets are far smaller and/or there are alternatives (eg via LHR, DUB, MUC, FRA) so I don’t see that as an significant issue.
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 09, 2019 9:03 pm

I can’t see the competition authorities having any issue with VS buying out the MT long haul.

We are talking about 9 planes from VS and it still wouldn’t be the largest airline by volume at MAN. Even with BE we are talking about a base still smaller than Aer Lingus at DUB.


In terms of destinations and monopolies, there is duplication on New York (but Newark is an alternative), Orlando (Sanford is an alternative), Los Angeles and Las Vegas in the USA. Caribbean wise it’s only Bridgetown which has a TUI alternative too.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 09, 2019 9:12 pm

Im really interested what happens to Condor. it could mean a new competitor on the German market when LH does not buy it.
 
lee757
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 09, 2019 11:15 pm

azz767 wrote:
It also gives them more A/C that they have experience of operating (all be it with different engines)


VS have the trents on the A333 so i think they'll be no issues from them understanding how to look after them on 332's. Doubt there's a huge difference in maintenance on trents on A332's vs A333's. In fact Cooks themselves have them on 332/333 between the group.

Though TCX 330's will soon be up for replacement, VS A332's are temporary and VS A333's are on 12-year leases since early 00's - meaning they would all be up for renewal?
330neo order maybe for VS maybe?

I wish Thomas Cook would have stayed around though, it'll be a great shame to lose another UK airline and I wonder what will happen to the tour op side. And potentially a bit of own goal introducing reliance on someone else to manage something their core business relies on. Maybe they'll sell the airline, pay down some debt and sign an agreement for a few years, before maybe bringing it back in house in years to come. Flying colours started out with only four new 757's before the various amalgamations with Caledonian/peach, airworld, jmc, mytravel/Airtours etc. Though fear sale of the airline is the start of the end of Cooks as its own group.

Rather VS for the long haul stuff then LH though, and its a worry LH potentially wanting the other airlines - they couldn't make Bmi or Baby work.

Who are the UK left with then, VS as the full-service carrier, Tui as a leisure airline and a bunch of low-cost, race to the bottom carriers (BA included!).
 
8herveg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 7:04 am

If VS DID buy TCX long haul, I can’t imagine they’d continue to operate all the routes that TCX do. I wouldn’t have thought places like Cayo Coco, Holguin, Varadero etc. would be as commercially viable with the VS model. But I could be wrong? I could see them maintain the likes of SEA, SFO, MRU, CUN, ANU, UVF? Thoughts?
 
azz767
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 7:18 am

8herveg wrote:
If VS DID buy TCX long haul, I can’t imagine they’d continue to operate all the routes that TCX do. I wouldn’t have thought places like Cayo Coco, Holguin, Varadero etc. would be as commercially viable with the VS model. But I could be wrong? I could see them maintain the likes of SEA, SFO, MRU, CUN, ANU, UVF? Thoughts?


If they can get the seats filled with TCX holiday customers then possibly. Don’t forget virgin also has a holidays brand which they may see potential in these routes, also helping fill seats
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 8:14 am

User001 wrote:
I can’t see the competition authorities having any issue with VS buying out the MT long haul.

We are talking about 9 planes from VS and it still wouldn’t be the largest airline by volume at MAN. Even with BE we are talking about a base still smaller than Aer Lingus at DUB.


In terms of destinations and monopolies, there is duplication on New York (but Newark is an alternative), Orlando (Sanford is an alternative), Los Angeles and Las Vegas in the USA. Caribbean wise it’s only Bridgetown which has a TUI alternative too.


Indeed. Thomas Cook also serve quite a few Mexican and Cuban destinations that VS either don't serve or used to serve, as well as Dominican Republic. I can't see the competition authorities being too concerned, especially considering that up until a few years ago some of these duplicated US destinations weren't served at all from MAN.

azz767 wrote:
If they can get the seats filled with TCX holiday customers then possibly. Don’t forget virgin also has a holidays brand which they may see potential in these routes, also helping fill seats


Virgin Holidays also serve a few destinations that MT does but VS doesn't, so taking the flying "in house" through this takeover might be more beneficial for Virgin Holidays in the long-run.
 
8herveg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 8:35 am

So TCX serve the following long-haul destinations from MAN:

Antigua
Barbados
Cancún
Cayo Coco
Goa
Holguín
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Mauritius
Montego Bay
New York JFK
Orlando
Punta Cana
San Francisco
Seattle
St Lucia
Tobago
Varadero

Of those, the following are served by VS already from MAN:

Barbados
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
New York JFK
Orlando

And the following are currently served by VS in general (from LGW or LHR). This isn't to say they'd be successful from MAN, but it may give VS a rough idea and operationally, they'd already have the necessary things in place at the respective destination.

Antigua
Montego Bay
San Francisco
Seattle
St Lucia
Tobago

Which leaves the following. It still surprises me that VS pulled out of CUN. It served VRA from LGW last year (and interestingly, VRA has no link to LON at all but it does to MAN). I reckon MRU and PUJ would work? Not sure about the others.

Cancún
Cayo Coco
Goa
Holguín
Mauritius
Punta Cana
Varadero

Thoughts?
 
WhiskyZulu
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 12:39 pm

Reuters reporting that Willie Walsh has confirmed IAG is not bidding for Thomas Cook Airlines.

"In relation to Thomas Cook... we're not putting in any bid," Walsh told reporters.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1SG16I
 
by738
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 1:28 pm

In terms of competition eg on Florida routes, if any other operator had wished to serve this market they could, I cant see why there would be a cap and therefore no competition restriction.
Funny to think at one point to Florida there was Britannia, Air Europe (747 !) , Monarch, European/Travel City, some of the American carrier Rich Int / ATA etc, then Excalibur, JMC, Caledonian
 
Zidane
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Fri May 10, 2019 1:55 pm

8herveg wrote:
If VS DID buy TCX long haul, I can’t imagine they’d continue to operate all the routes that TCX do. I wouldn’t have thought places like Cayo Coco, Holguin, Varadero etc. would be as commercially viable with the VS model. But I could be wrong? I could see them maintain the likes of SEA, SFO, MRU, CUN, ANU, UVF? Thoughts?


Some history on the ANU, UVF routes from MAN. Originally launched by BMI then taken over by TCX after a hiatus. In between, during VS' early MAN experiment, UVF was launched (https://www.avitrader.com/2005/12/08/vi ... -st-lucia/) only to be axed after 3 years. (VS79/80 flight number remains unused to this day https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VIR79 ) Today, I'm sure VS can make MAN work now that they have the right sized aircraft, the A330.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sat May 11, 2019 4:54 pm

So looks like the main bidders for TCUK as a whole are Easyjet, Indigo and potentially Lufthansa (Since they extended their offer for Condor to TCUK).
Can't really see what Easyjet would do with the long haul routes and aircraft, and couldn't really see it being allowed to happen, since if it did, LGW & MAN would be almost entirely Orange.

Indigo, makes sense, 430 orders for new Airbus' to renew the fleet and keep the airline as it is without changing much, since it's currently making profit.

Lufty, turn the entire thing into Condor maybe? But couldn't see Lufthansa attempting Leisure routes out of the UK?
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 6:51 am

Has easyJet actually made a bid ? I haven’t seen anything official ?
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 1:34 pm

Didn't Virgin pull out of CUN because of the slow but steady increase in crime since 2017 around the tourist areas?
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 4:08 pm

If indigo bought tc would they rebrand as wiz or keep separate ?
The only reason I could see easy buying is to stop wizz expansion into other bases .
Can’t see what virgin can gain as a/c are old only crews trained and ready are of value and possibly slots .However they could probably grow themselves . There’s no shortage of people that would want to work there
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 5:11 pm

f4f3a wrote:
If indigo bought tc would they rebrand as wiz or keep separate ?
The only reason I could see easy buying is to stop wizz expansion into other bases .
Can’t see what virgin can gain as a/c are old only crews trained and ready are of value and possibly slots .However they could probably grow themselves . There’s no shortage of people that would want to work there


Virgin can gain a lot from the TC long haul sale.

Crews, slots and get their hands on a big customer base for a start.

Aircraft wise, yes, the MT ones are not exactly young, but, given the ambition to expand, these aircraft can see them through until they can get their hands on a new batch of aircraft. The fact they will have a big feeder in FlyBe, especially as next summer kicks in, they will need quick access onto a large ransoms long haul operation to feed that. The fact FlyBe currently feed a lot of MT flights currently means this all goes hand in hand.

Yes, there will be a bit of right-sizing to fit everything together properly. For example, it’s unlikely MCO will continue without any changes as up 4 daily on one airline would be quite remarkable, and it’s likely we could see routes like JFK go 10 weekly and LAS Daily to maximise potential. But on the flip side, it could mean we get routes to Detroit, Miami, Tampa as well as increases on the likes of Boston, Seattle and San Fransisco.

To me, VS and MT long haul coming under the same roof is a no brainier, and gives MAN the big, true hub operation that it has always longed for.
 
A321200
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 5:45 pm

Virgin can gain a lot from the TC long haul sale.

Crews, slots and get their hands on a big customer base for a start.

Aircraft wise, yes, the MT ones are not exactly young, but, given the ambition to expand, these aircraft can see them through until they can get their hands on a new batch of aircraft. The fact they will have a big feeder in FlyBe, especially as next summer kicks in, they will need quick access onto a large ransoms long haul operation to feed that. The fact FlyBe currently feed a lot of MT flights currently means this all goes hand in hand.

Yes, there will be a bit of right-sizing to fit everything together properly. For example, it’s unlikely MCO will continue without any changes as up 4 daily on one airline would be quite remarkable, and it’s likely we could see routes like JFK go 10 weekly and LAS Daily to maximise potential. But on the flip side, it could mean we get routes to Detroit, Miami, Tampa as well as increases on the likes of Boston, Seattle and San Fransisco.

To me, VS and MT long haul coming under the same roof is a no brainier, and gives MAN the big, true hub operation that it has always longed for.


Agreed. Unpicking the LH from TCX could be tricky (industrially), not to mention re-alining BE as a feeder, but for it all to come together when MAG finish the new, illustrious, terminal in a few years, then the rewards could be huge.

In addition to the above, it would be nice in future to see VS smooth out the flying program and look East, in particular, BOM that Jet fed until recently. If BE services are to be arranged to bring all 4 corners of the UK to MAN in 3 waves during the day (morning, noon, eve) then due to most of the US-bound aircraft leaving by lunchtime, there'd be nothing for the afternoon/evening waves to feed.

Obviously, acquiring TCX's LH operation would be of great benefit to Virgin's leisure side of the business but also, when viewing DL/VS/KL/AF as a group, it could be that creating another hub in MAN is a good way to address capacity issues at LHR, AMS and CDG.
 
3AWM
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 5:57 pm

Not familiar with TCX's operations but according to to Wikipedia they have 7 A330s on lease, 3 operating for Condor. Any info on how accurate this is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Cook_Airlines

If so we are talking about VS taking over 4 A330 leases (some serving LGW) which is relatively small beans.

Agreed it's good news for MAN though as TCX is definitely cramping their style at MAN with their TATL services. I don't think that is going to result in a massive growth of routes though, more likely it will support more frequencies on existing routes bringing them up to daily.

Demand to additional US locations I would expect to be served by connections to DL's US network. The removal of a competitor should also help yields.
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 5:58 pm

I do honestly feel MAN could be to the VS/DL/AF/KL group what DUB is to IAG, which is a good relief hub.

AMS is running out of slots (capped), CDG is, well, CDG and LHR is full until a new runway, which still isn’t guaranteed and even if it does get permission is a good 10 years away.

This means for the group, MAN can offer that growth.

In terms of East, I’d like to think ICN (big student diaspora, growing tourism both ways, a DL JV hub in ICN and a small hub status at MAN means this route has credinance. India may be off the cards until a new feed partner in India can be sought, but if that is gained, both BOM and DEL could surely be looked at. Id like hope that Tokyo can finally be brought to the table, JAL and ANA are noted in the MACC notes as seriously studying MAN, maybe VS could get in there first.

Going west, links to the hub at DTW is most logical, Miami to link into the new cruise venture by Virgin, and Tampa as a way of displacing some MCO capacity (combined with it being a decent sized Delta station too).

Southwards, Cape Town must be in with a shot. I believe it’s a route MT have mulled from MAN for a few years now, it is served from LGW and with the combined customer database of Thomas Cook and Virgin Holidays means it could gain more traction.

So, with ICN/DEL/BOM/NRT/CPT, as well as perhaps a later JFK and MCO given the multiple daily frequency, it could also give a later bank viability.

Obviously these are my own musings, but, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 6:07 pm

not familiar with TCX's operations but according to to Wikipedia they have 7 A330s on lease, 3 operating for Condor. Any info on how accurate this is?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Cook_Airlines

If so we are talking about VS taking over 4 A330 leases (some serving LGW) which is relatively small beans.


The Wikipedia isn’t quite correct (but when is it ever).

Thomas Cook U.K. have 7 permanent A330. These are G-OMYT/MDBD/MLJL/CHTZ/TCXB/TCXC/TCXD* this one due in June.
They also shift Thomas Cook Scandinavia A330 OY-VKF Over to MAN for the summer too.

Based wise, all but one of the A330 are based at MAN, with a further one sent to GLA for their high peak summer school holidays 4 days a week only (pretty much just July).its based at MAN the rest of the year.

The 3 Condor A330 were actually a rather complex transfer to which Air Transat borrow the planes to MT over the winter, in return for Thomas Cook sending A321’s in the opposite direction. Thomas Cook then subsequently send these 3 A330 to Condor for use.

So, MAN potentially has at least 6 A330, with the 7th also being shifted up if VS don’t want the 7th to be based at LGW (the fact VS are leasing out a slot to Easyjet for the long term and shifting LAS to LHR as well as duplicating BGI to LHR and lastly cut CUN and VRA from LGW suggests VS don’t have plans for expansion at LGW for the time with the NYC/BOS Routes being DL metal rather than VS)

MAN is 6 based in S19 with VS, with the plan to be 7 without any MT interjections, so, 7+7= sizeable base. Isn’t Aer Lingus something like 15 A330, meaning parity in that respect.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 6:59 pm

Don’t tc also have a leased air tanker a330 as well?
Does a buy out mean they have to honour these commitments to air transat condor etc ?
If virgin want to make a hub in Manchester why don’t they buy the whole lot . The a321 can be used to help feed
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:04 pm

MT have finished the lease with Air Tanker. One is with Condor and 2 with Jet2.

The MT short haul operation probably would have been good had they not already brought the FlyBe one. Might as well cherry pick what you need.
 
A321200
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:05 pm

While the destinations you've listed would be brilliant to see, I struggle to imagine that places like NRT and CPT wouldn't return to London before Manchester. That said, times have changed, VHols are stronger than they were 10 years ago and with some clever hubbing it might be a possibility.

What will be interesting to see is (if VS does pick up those 7 extra TCX aircraft) what this all might turn into over the coming year or two... Obviously, the end game is to bring all operations under one roof (having aircraft spread across 3 terminals that are notoriously difficult to get between is never going to work). MAG will want a hub airline based there - a money spinner for the airport and a tourism boost for the NW, even if passengers connect, it puts Manchester on the map and given MAG is predominantly owned by the council, I can see them being keen for such project that can play catch-up to London. This gives VS some clout when it comes to terminal space and facilities. A pier or two for themselves perhaps? A preferred spot for the clubhouse? Exclusive access to USPC? (if that ever comes to pass...)

Looking at the wider picture - US traffic to the Far East, SE Asia and Indian Subcontinent which is not flown direct from the US East Coast by DL (with the recent exception of Mumbai I think) is a one stop process either on the West Coast then over the Pacific or Eastbound to connect through one of the partner's hubs. The benefits of the latter is that hubbing in Europe helps to increase load factors, revenue and choice for customers and, as mentioned before, due to capacity constraints in other airports, MAN might have a role to play. For example, traffic flows East and West can also be fed by BE within the UK and AF/KL from the EU to relieve congestion there and increase capacity for the group as a whole. For example a MAN-DEL service on any given day could be filled up by BE’s 11 or so domestic feeds plus others in the near continent, DL/VS passengers transferring from the USA, AF/KL overflow European feed and from Northern England’s own demand.

Complicated but I think the formation of DL/VS/KL/AF as joint venture partners is to simply increase capacity East and West creating synergies between the 4. MAN could have a part to play in that, as you say, as a secondary hub.
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:24 pm

While the destinations you've listed would be brilliant to see, I struggle to imagine that places like NRT and CPT wouldn't return to London before Manchester. That said, times have changed, VHols are stronger than they were 10 years ago and with some clever hubbing it might be a possibility.


Do you know what, even as little as 2-3 years ago, I would have agreed completely with your question mark over NRT/CPT And London.

However, we now live in a time that MAN is currently on par with LGW for based aircraft and only sitting one route behind Gatwick’s total for VS. This is a situation I honestly thought I’d never see, after having years of just MAN-MCO and a spattering of the odd Caribbean foray.

The fact that MAN now sees a mix of routes from VS after being lumped into the LGW mantra of just leisure routes, again, something I didn’t think I would see.

The fact is, London Heathrow, and pretty much London Gatwick are at capacity. They’d probably struggle to find slots for NRT/CPT even if they wanted to. And with the role of a hub function, those routes can be served from MAN if they so wish.

We seem to be entering a new, brave time at MAN. Clubhouse on the way, growing passenger numbers (nearly at 29million),on the dust of being an actual, proper hub. MAN nearly had this a few years ago when BA commissioned T3 to be designed for their needs, but that prospect never materialised. With Heathrow full for the foreseeable, MAN may get lucky this time and not fall foul of the Heathrow-itis but that took BA and BMI in.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:28 pm

If vs does want to create a hub will we see these leisure destinations being replaced by business routes?
I mean you don’t really need a hub in Manchester if you’re just flying point to point holiday places
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:35 pm

MT currently has a decent amount of feed from BE/SK and LH. You get feed for the likes of ANU if the destination isn’t served from the feeding airport, so it’s more importantly than you’d think.
 
Nickd92
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 7:54 pm

f4f3a wrote:
If vs does want to create a hub will we see these leisure destinations being replaced by business routes?
I mean you don’t really need a hub in Manchester if you’re just flying point to point holiday places



If TCX Long Haul, was bought by VS i would imagine that it would be a mix of the holiday places & business routes. The holiday routes would probably be in a contract with TC that they have a % of seats on every leisure route and probably your JFK & MIA routes. They would then grow the "business" routes using the BE (whatever its called) feed and as others have suggested even a relief hub for KLM/AF.

I am very surprised to see people have not mentioned BKK - that could be a cash cow for VS if they bought TC. With leisure backing too; could open up HKT and do a "thailand trip" and give some competition to TUI.

The one thing that has yet to be mentioned is the inevitable fleet replacement - A330 are ageing, 747's are to be replaced by A350's - but overall there is no future aircraft orders at VS so if they were to buy TC long haul they would need to act quick to replace & grow the A330's @ MAN - possible A350? A350 a MAN/LGW base (LHR too) and 787 exclusive to LHR?

Also what happens to TC short haul? Jet2?? easyJet??
 
User001
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 8:03 pm

I am very surprised to see people have not mentioned BKK - that could be a cash cow for VS if they bought TC. With leisure backing too; could open up HKT and do a "thailand trip" and give some competition to TUI.


I personally didn’t mention BKK as it seems to be one of those annoyingly obvious routes but stubbornly remains unserved. Whether VS sees a potential in it remains to be seen, but, given their propensity to edge towards westward and higher yield potential routes, I’d say not.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 8:11 pm

There’s been no public sign of easy being interested . It would make sense though now they are not going in to Alitalia with delta . They have the resources spare .
 
Someone83
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 8:15 pm

Lots of rumours and potensial bidders for UK and Condor, but not so much about Thomas Cook Skandinavia
 
by738
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 9:12 pm

The VS A330s are not that old?
 
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LTU932
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 12, 2019 9:24 pm

I read somewhere that LH may be interested in reacquiring DE from Thomas Cook. If that was to happen, what would happen with the routes that clearly overlap with LH's network? One of the routes I'm thinking is DE's routes to SJO via SDQ and IIRC also SJU. LH is flying nonstop with its own metal so, so that would leave the question of the purpose of those routes for DE open if the "big brother" is flying those routes on its own, now that they're no longer competitors.
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
eagles94
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 3:08 am

Thomas Cook publicly stated that they’d prefer the group airlines to be sold together. With this in mind, Indigo Partners (the only ones so far who’ve openly bid for the whole lot) seems the most likely option, surely.
 
by738
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 7:54 am

eagles94 wrote:
Thomas Cook publicly stated that they’d prefer the group airlines to be sold together. With this in mind, Indigo Partners (the only ones so far who’ve openly bid for the whole lot) seems the most likely option, surely.

Yet would they be interested in the Long Haul component? That huge Airbus narrowbody order will be no use on that scenario.
From the outside, I don't see any of the TC airline group as hugely appealing, so im guessing they will take what they can get.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 8:57 am

I think it unlikely that the airlines will be sold together. Also I do not see the airline as a brand surviving .
 
NG263
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:06 am

LTU932 wrote:
I read somewhere that LH may be interested in reacquiring DE from Thomas Cook. If that was to happen, what would happen with the routes that clearly overlap with LH's network? One of the routes I'm thinking is DE's routes to SJO via SDQ and IIRC also SJU. LH is flying nonstop with its own metal so, so that would leave the question of the purpose of those routes for DE open if the "big brother" is flying those routes on its own, now that they're no longer competitors.


As these are leisure destinations which have been operated by the Star Alliance painted 340's (Project JUMP), Condor would most probably take them over/serve them alone. If LH acquires Condor there is no point in doing leisure business with their classic fleet as they then have an airline for that.
 
Someone83
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:10 am

eagles94 wrote:
With this in mind, Indigo Partners (the only ones so far who’ve openly bid for the whole lot) seems the most likely option, surely.


But they can only buy 49% of it?
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:23 am

eagles94 wrote:
Thomas Cook publicly stated that they’d prefer the group airlines to be sold together. With this in mind, Indigo Partners (the only ones so far who’ve openly bid for the whole lot) seems the most likely option, surely.


I don't think it really matters in the long run, as long as the Thomas Cook i.e 'tour operator' has access to seats to key destinations - most notably where they are busy devloping hotels and resorts (Casa Cook etc). That doesn't have to be one airline.
 
bhxalex
Posts: 86
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:43 am

User001 wrote:
I do honestly feel MAN could be to the VS/DL/AF/KL group what DUB is to IAG, which is a good relief hub.

AMS is running out of slots (capped), CDG is, well, CDG and LHR is full until a new runway, which still isn’t guaranteed and even if it does get permission is a good 10 years away.

This means for the group, MAN can offer that growth.

In terms of East, I’d like to think ICN (big student diaspora, growing tourism both ways, a DL JV hub in ICN and a small hub status at MAN means this route has credinance. India may be off the cards until a new feed partner in India can be sought, but if that is gained, both BOM and DEL could surely be looked at. Id like hope that Tokyo can finally be brought to the table, JAL and ANA are noted in the MACC notes as seriously studying MAN, maybe VS could get in there first.

Going west, links to the hub at DTW is most logical, Miami to link into the new cruise venture by Virgin, and Tampa as a way of displacing some MCO capacity (combined with it being a decent sized Delta station too).

Southwards, Cape Town must be in with a shot. I believe it’s a route MT have mulled from MAN for a few years now, it is served from LGW and with the combined customer database of Thomas Cook and Virgin Holidays means it could gain more traction.

So, with ICN/DEL/BOM/NRT/CPT, as well as perhaps a later JFK and MCO given the multiple daily frequency, it could also give a later bank viability.

Obviously these are my own musings, but, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility.



It's great listing all the potential long haul destinations but with what feed?

For every KL, LH, AF, BA, IB, EI, SK etc long haul flight there's half a dozen or short haul flights.

Who is putting on the multiple dailies to EDI, GLA,ABZ, ORK, DUB, BHI, CDG, MRS, LYS, NCE, AMS, BRU, CPH, GOT, OSL ARN, WAW, FRA, MUC, DUS, CGN, HAM, HAJ, STR, TXL, FCO, VCE, MXP, BCN, MAD, SVQ, LIS, OPO, VIE, ZRH, GVA, BSL, ATH, ZAG,
OTP ,PRG, BUD etc?

Flybe provide limited connections and don't have the current capability to expand far into Europe, Easyjet have the most destinations, but not necessarily the frequency for a hub. And we can discount Ryanair providing any non self connecting feed.

If TCX's short haul network is to be considered then it won't be of much use.

The vast majority of TCX's destinations are leisure orientated. Nobody will be doing FUE-MAN-ICN or JMK-MAN-SEA.
 
User avatar
Channex757
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:48 am

Someone83 wrote:
eagles94 wrote:
With this in mind, Indigo Partners (the only ones so far who’ve openly bid for the whole lot) seems the most likely option, surely.


But they can only buy 49% of it?

I don't recall (sorry, not been paying attention) MT changing their sale policy of being open to accepting bids for some or all of the operation. Raising cash for the carrier to recapitalise the fleet would work just as well as selling it outright.

It is profitable after all.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 11:46 am

Zidane wrote:
8herveg wrote:
If VS DID buy TCX long haul, I can’t imagine they’d continue to operate all the routes that TCX do. I wouldn’t have thought places like Cayo Coco, Holguin, Varadero etc. would be as commercially viable with the VS model. But I could be wrong? I could see them maintain the likes of SEA, SFO, MRU, CUN, ANU, UVF? Thoughts?


Some history on the ANU, UVF routes from MAN. Originally launched by BMI then taken over by TCX after a hiatus. In between, during VS' early MAN experiment, UVF was launched (https://www.avitrader.com/2005/12/08/vi ... -st-lucia/) only to be axed after 3 years. (VS79/80 flight number remains unused to this day https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VIR79 ) Today, I'm sure VS can make MAN work now that they have the right sized aircraft, the A330.


Wasn't MAN-UVF only for one winter with VS before being discontinued?

I agree that it might be worth another go with a smaller aircraft. A 747 seemed too big, but at the time the smallest aircraft in their fleet was the A340-300 which only usually operated out of LHR.

by738 wrote:
The VS A330s are not that old?


The -300's were all delivered within this decade and the eldest was first delivered in 2011, though they are leased. As mentioned last week, they could be able to get a good deal from Airbus or Boeing for 20+ aircraft in that size if they replace the MT fleet at the same time as some of their A330's were delivered brand new to Airtours almost 20 years ago and I think are older than the ex-Air Berlin -200's (I could be wrong on the last point however). At some point, a decision will need to be made about their replacements.

If I was VS, I'd be looking at using bigger aircraft on the routes they compete on from MAN and use the freed up slots and resources for expansion to new destinations.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 80
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 1:13 pm

Anything happening on the other side of the Atlantic lately?
Westjet Air, Transat, and Thomas Cooke are companies to watch.

I pity any employee of Westjet right now with the pure horror of uncertainty a Private Equity firm take over brings
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
f4f3a
Posts: 496
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:07 am

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 2:44 pm

Weren’t air transat for sale ? Saw a thread on it somewhere on here
 
mattyfitzg
Topic Author
Posts: 146
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 6:01 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Anything happening on the other side of the Atlantic lately?
Westjet Air, Transat, and Thomas Cooke are companies to watch.

I pity any employee of Westjet right now with the pure horror of uncertainty a Private Equity firm take over brings


More pity for the Thomas Cook employees, who don't know whether any takeover will actually include further employment.
Since VS want the Long Haul and LH want Condor, the UK Short Haul cabin and flight crews are left in the middle picking up the pieces.

EDIT: On the subject of a VS take-over of Long-Haul, surely Unite will put up a hell of a fight in regards to employment of staff and contracts. I don't think a union like Unite will let it quietly slip under the radar
 
eagles94
Posts: 26
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 6:22 pm

We will find more info on Thursday, when TCG release half-year results and reveal more info in relation to the sale.
 
by738
Posts: 2879
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 6:24 pm

mattyfitzg wrote:
EDIT: On the subject of a VS take-over of Long-Haul, surely Unite will put up a hell of a fight in regards to employment of staff and contracts. I don't think a union like Unite will let it quietly slip under the radar

But VS might have better terms than TC?
 
User001
Posts: 855
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 6:25 pm

It's great listing all the potential long haul destinations but with what feed?


Looking at it far too simplistically. I’ve already explained why the destinations would work in themselves. Yes, the hub operation is small to begin with, but, we are talking about shifting the deckchairs at best, and a hub that could grow over time.

We need to remember these aircraft we are talking about are already being filled by the respective companies, VS and MT. A lot of these destinations I’ve mentioned are a lot of shuffles that are still serving a similar market, just optimising that.

Extra BOS would come at the expense of some JFK flights.

MIA and TPA at the expense of some MCO frequency, to which some MCO pax were probably heading onto onto anyway, particularly TPA which is finding a new niche with the Brits that are bored of the parks.

DTW at the expense of some CUN/Caribbean, connections onto multiple daily flights from DLs largest hub by frequency.

CPT could tap into the databases of VS and MT whilst capturing those that travel one stop.

ICN taps into Koreans hub as well as generating inbound traffic (KALtours, students etc)

NRT is the oddball, but, JAL and ANA studying the route so a market to be had.

So, let’s not just look at the situation in the immediate here and now, it’s about the potential. Coupled with a new widebody order (one needs to happen to replace the A332 and A333 fleets regardless of what happens with MT) and a potential A220 order for Flybe, and suddenly, it’s not a silly suggestion.
 
mattyfitzg
Topic Author
Posts: 146
Joined: Sun Sep 04, 2016 4:50 pm

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 6:29 pm

by738 wrote:
mattyfitzg wrote:
EDIT: On the subject of a VS take-over of Long-Haul, surely Unite will put up a hell of a fight in regards to employment of staff and contracts. I don't think a union like Unite will let it quietly slip under the radar

But VS might have better terms than TC?


Cabin Crew contracts at TCX are far more favourable than their VS counterparts. Can't speak for Flight crew.
 
David_itl
Posts: 6338
Joined: Wed Jun 27, 2001 7:39 am

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 13, 2019 9:46 pm

bhxalex wrote:

Who is putting on the multiple dailies to EDI, GLA,ABZ, ORK, DUB, BHI, CDG, MRS, LYS, NCE, AMS, BRU, CPH, GOT, OSL ARN, WAW, FRA, MUC, DUS, CGN, HAM, HAJ, STR, TXL, FCO, VCE, MXP, BCN, MAD, SVQ, LIS, OPO, VIE, ZRH, GVA, BSL, ATH, ZAG,
OTP ,PRG, BUD etc?

Flybe provide limited connections and don't have the current capability to expand far into Europe, Easyjet have the most destinations, but not necessarily the frequency for a hub. And we can discount Ryanair providing any non self connecting feed..



So the limited connections on BE are more than 3 or more daily to ABZ, EDI, IOM, BHD, SOU, EXT, AMS, DUS, and CDG. This "limited" feed that actually gets a decent proportion of passengers actually currently transferring onto the current portfolio of MT and VS services.


I've drawn up this 4 bank wave of combined BE, VS and MT long-haul for tomorrow based on Flightradar 24's "routes" section. It's not in strict time order but based on what a flight best fits in the overall pattern of feeding other flights. It can also be a guide as to which flights ought be retimed to better feed other services. As it stands, it does appear possible for travellers to connect, for example JFK-MAN-MXP or ATL-MAN-DUS and vice versa


Image

The other thing that intrigues me is Stobart operating out of MAN for Aer Lingus. I wonder if they might decide that feeding VS / BE may be a better thing at MAN rather than taking passengers away from the "parent",
 
jomur
Posts: 178
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Tue May 14, 2019 1:14 pm

David_itl wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
The other thing that intrigues me is Stobart operating out of MAN for Aer Lingus. I wonder if they might decide that feeding VS / BE may be a better thing at MAN rather than taking passengers away from the "parent",


But won't the money Stobart gets paid for the Aer Lingus routes have no bearing on the loads being carried? Whereas with BE it would completely depend on the loads.

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