LGAviation
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 3:46 pm

mattyfitzg wrote:
goosebayguy wrote:
The way things are going with TCG events may overtake the sale of the airline and it could quickly go bust. Then it will be a case of picking over the carcass. No doubt a lot of airlines with grounded or non-arrived B737MAXs will be looking to use any aircraft returned to leasing companies.


I highly doubt that's the case. Don't jump onboard the tabloid scaremongering.
TCG have bridging loans which are subject to the sale of the airline. For everybody's sake, TCG needs to offload the airline as soon as humanly possible, whether it's for a few million or for a £1.

Well over 25,000 jobs on the line around Europe, not what the economy needs really.


What is the quickest timeline we're looking at and when could we expect changes to the schedules? I highly doubt that even though an asset deal can be closed quicker with the appropriate antitrust approvals in place, they would want to mess with the summer schedule as I guess no one wants to miss out on the summer profits.
2018: ADD CPH DAR DEN DME DUB FRA HAH HAM IST JIB KEF LYR MEL OSL PEK PKC PVG RAK STN SVO SYD YVR
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 5:15 pm

Saw an interesting article saying that the news by citi wiped 40% off tc groups value might be some underhand move . The company fosun which is touted as taking over the travel arm have strong links to citi banks Asia branch . The move by citi just made the take over 140 million cheaper !
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 6:24 pm

Ever since the dot-com bust, 2008 credit crunch and Mifid II, there have been some fairly strict rules around equity research and M&A departments of investment banks. If this is true, I suspect the FCA might want to take a look...
 
bennett123
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 6:44 pm

But Citi did not invent the sudden #1bn impairment.

IMO, it is the Thomas Cook BOD who have some explaining to do.
 
TC957
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 8:17 pm

bennett123 wrote:
But Citi did not invent the sudden #1bn impairment.

IMO, it is the Thomas Cook BOD who have some explaining to do.

Yeah, exactly, only problem is the board now aren't the board of the MyTravel buyout of 12 years ago so someone down the intervening years has been keeping bad financial figures from the city all that time.
In the past, TC have reported losses blamed on Egypt/Tunisia/Turkey over capacity after events in those countries meant package holiday numbers took a nose-dive. In my view, they have been slow to spot booking trends and adjust capacity accordingly. TUI seem better at this.
 
NormanDLandings
Posts: 4
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 19, 2019 11:48 pm

“maybe people thought that Thomas Cook was paying slightly more a fair price in 2007 but not drastically so. The annual accounts for Thomas Cook have recorded MyTravel as having been worth the purchase price ever since. “

You do know this was a merger? Thomas Cook didn’t buy MyTravel.
 
gunnerman
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 1:13 am

I expect Thomas Cook Retail Ltd to make money selling the Baku day trip for £979 on 29 May. I know about this as I've paid...
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 6:07 am

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.this ... firms.html

Was the article as people say there are tricky rules however I wouldn’t be surprised either as business do tend to break them . Also more often they get away with it
 
3AWM
Posts: 156
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 8:58 am

The £1.1bn right down is really not that important to trading but it is important to shareholder (and share price) value. It also tells you something about the direction the package holiday market is going and how quickly.

What is more worrying to me is the £400million trading loss and the need to sell the airline for £400million.

Likely Thomas Cook needs to slim down their operation if they are able to continue which means less seat sales, if they go out of business altogether there is no guarantee that the purchaser of the airline will pick up the demand that fills the gap - this could just go to a competitor.

I agree with by738, I think a lot of these routes quoted as being the "saviour" of TCX are really routes that the operate at a very low return to mitigate the costs of underutilisation of the fleet due to the highly seasonal nature of the holiday airline business.

There is some value to purchasers who already operate those routes and can simply book passengers on their own planes or to operators who want to expand into those routes anyway but the value is really in consolidation and I don't see it kicking off a lot of expansion as some are suggesting.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 9:48 am

I think what we will see after the airline sale is a slimming down . Store closures and a move to a more online presence . By not having an airline they will be able to hopefully control costs more effectively. One solution might be that Fosun who cannot buy more than 49 percent of the airline goes in with another investor / airline in a jv. Also how are indigo going to take the airline with ownership rules as they are. I thought they were a us based firm . Do they have a eu branch that meets the rules ?
 
3AWM
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 10:23 am

There are creative ways around ownership rules. Indigo have a share in Wizz, so Indigo have could take 49% and Wizz take 51%.

Most of the routes are also EU routes so Wizz could just operate from EU bases.
 
BritishB747
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 1:21 pm

I see Thomas Cook are now reassuring holidaymakers. Hopefully this isn't the beginning of the end, but stories like this cant be helpful for consumer confidence.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48336449
AT5 AT7 AB6 319 320 321 333 33V 343 346 AR8 733 734 736 73G 738 744 752 753 763 77E 77W 788 BET CR7 D10 D38 DHT DH4 E70 E75 E90 F70 J41 M83 S20 SF3
 
FlyingColours
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 1:58 pm

They are having to do this due to all the press attention that the company has been getting and the subsequent influx of concerned passengers/holidaymakers who are worried and asking questions.

Yes it is easy to draw parallels between the "business as usual" tweets from the Thomas Cook staff to those from Monarch before them and XL Airways (had we had twitter back then, but the sentiment was the same at least) but the situation at Thomas Cook is completely different to those two fallen giants.

I had to spend the better part of an hour on Saturday comforting my partner who was beside herself with worry that we would lose our upcoming holiday but once I had explained everything in detail she felt a lot better about it.

While it certainly is worrying times for all involved at Thomas Cook I genuinely don't see them going bust, especially during the busy summer period. As I understand it they have secured a loan to cover them during the leaner winter months too although I believe it may depend on them raising funds from selling the airline.

Phil
FlyingColours
*Former XL Airways Crew
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
 
leghorn
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 2:08 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/business- ... type=share

hopefully that link works. M O'L says "It's a dog, it's got some very old aircraft, all of which are leased,"
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 3:26 pm

Not just the aircraft but like a lot of firms some high staff costs as well to inherit .
Although if indigo gets it I’m sure there will be suddenly a lot of new a321neo aircraft on their way
 
TC957
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 5:42 pm

f4f3a wrote:
Not just the aircraft but like a lot of firms some high staff costs as well to inherit .
Although if indigo gets it I’m sure there will be suddenly a lot of new a321neo aircraft on their way

I trust you realize Indigo in this case is Indigo a private equity investment company not Indigo Airlines in India.
 
by738
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 5:47 pm

Indigo investments are involved in big Airbus orders so I sure poster knows...
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 5:52 pm

Yes I do hence the large airbus order also if you read previous posts I mention the private equity company quite a few times
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 5:52 pm

BritishB747 wrote:
I see Thomas Cook are now reassuring holidaymakers. Hopefully this isn't the beginning of the end, but stories like this cant be helpful for consumer confidence.

It does remind me of the band playing and rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
I do wish them well, comsumers need more choice.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
Growing older, but not up.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 6:21 pm

I think we will hear of the sale of the airline very soon. I see this as very time critical, It will gain lots of attention and most likely reassure customers, or at least give the impression that they are "on top of things".

The longer people hear nothing, the more likely the confidence will drop.
 
sargester
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 7:01 pm

B6
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon May 20, 2019 7:40 pm

sargester wrote:
B6

JetBlue buying one or more of the airlines in the Thomas Cook group would be utterly bizarre
 
fjhc
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Tue May 21, 2019 11:39 am

Not to mention impossible, given that they could only buy up to 49% of a European airline.
 
AAMDanny
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 23, 2019 12:20 pm

According to a internal discussion between staff and management which was published on TCX's internal intranet, there are more interested parties interested than VS, Indigo and LH. Some interested parties have not told the press that they are bidding for the Groups Airlines. Who have not been disclosed internally (before anyone asks!)
 
eagles94
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 23, 2019 1:05 pm

No announcements expected until July at the earliest. As per a leaked memo sent by Unite to the cabin crew.
 
Ryga
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 23, 2019 3:23 pm

“Thomas Cook faced a fresh financial blow today as its credit rating was downgraded following the group’s latest profit warning.

Meanwhile, Triton, one of Europe’s largest buyout firms, is understood to have approached Thomas Cook about a takeover of its Nordic airline and tour operator.”


http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/ ... nt-warning
 
bennett123
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 23, 2019 9:00 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/tri ... id=UE07DHP

Apparently only relates to the Nordic operation.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sat May 25, 2019 1:00 pm

Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for they employees than greybulls efforts with monarch
 
A321200
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sat May 25, 2019 7:11 pm

Monarch had very little in the way of assets when Greybull rode into town, all they had going for them was a bunch of 737Max’s on order, perhaps they saw value in that.

I’m not sure where TCX is asset-wise... I assume any leased aircraft would remain on the same terms as before following any kind of sale?
 
lee757
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 26, 2019 1:48 am

f4f3a wrote:
Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for the employees than greybulls efforts with monarch

or greybulls efforts with monarch engineering, m local, % of comet, Riley's and British steel :roll: Though define success - didn't greybull come out of monarch with a profit according to the FT?

UK laws need some serious overhauling though. Our bankruptcy/restructure laws are inadequate, as are our rules for business rates. It seems more often than not its an easy option to leave staff jobless with the taxpayer picking up pension liabilities whilst administrators manage to suck out funds, along with priority creditors leaving nothing left. Often after buying somewhere for peanuts and failing to invest and take on the risk themselves. It's often more profitable to have them fold. It isn't just an airline problem it's across the board.

Cooks have said they are funded for some time and hopefully I don't think there's an immediate risk, but just idiots standing to profit from talking them down.

Although sans airline I can see them ending up as part of another group.

Nordics tour op business has been weaker according to their results, so the question is would they offload it on its own in addition to the airline, and how much might it be worth?
 
bluefrog
Posts: 24
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 26, 2019 11:45 am

gunnerman wrote:
I expect Thomas Cook Retail Ltd to make money selling the Baku day trip for £979 on 29 May. I know about this as I've paid...

have a good game
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 26, 2019 1:29 pm

f4f3a wrote:
Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for they employees than greybulls efforts with monarch


When I think of Greybull, I think of the grim reaper standing by a hospital bed. British Steel the latest victim of their 'restructuring' methodology it would seem.
 
mattyfitzg
Topic Author
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 26, 2019 3:13 pm

JannEejit wrote:
f4f3a wrote:
Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for they employees than greybulls efforts with monarch


When I think of Greybull, I think of the grim reaper standing by a hospital bed. British Steel the latest victim of their 'restructuring' methodology it would seem.



Greybulls entire business consists of 'reviving' companies that are in financial trouble, nearly all of the companies they have tried and failed to turn around were purchased for a mere £1.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun May 26, 2019 3:18 pm

JannEejit wrote:
f4f3a wrote:
Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for they employees than greybulls efforts with monarch


When I think of Greybull, I think of the grim reaper standing by a hospital bed. British Steel the latest victim of their 'restructuring' methodology it would seem.



Greybulls entire business consists of 'reviving' companies that are in financial trouble, nearly all of the companies they have tried and failed to turn around were purchased for a mere £1.
 
f4f3a
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Wed May 29, 2019 3:07 pm

Does anyone know when the results eg preferred bidders etc will be announced ?
 
Nickd92
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Wed May 29, 2019 3:09 pm

JannEejit wrote:
f4f3a wrote:
Yes it’s a private equity firm . Hopefully more successful for they employees than greybulls efforts with monarch


When I think of Greybull, I think of the grim reaper standing by a hospital bed. British Steel the latest victim of their 'restructuring' methodology it would seem.


With a bad reputation; and getting even more of one; i hope they stay away from TC. Infact i think the government should ban them from buying any British business as they are clearly legalised criminals.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Wed May 29, 2019 4:13 pm

by738 wrote:
eagles94 wrote:
successful launch of Cape Town, Los Angeles, San Francisco, JFK & Seattle, which are entirely seat-only passengers.

Are they all seat only ? (often heavily advertised in TC shops and brochures and can be made as packages)
How do we know the 'success' or otherwise of these routes (who's frequencies and offerings have often changed).
I dont think these routes are the saviour of TC/TCX, a lot of which IMO will get culled in any takeover


Thomas Cook is only really interested in beach holidays. It is very clear from their recent 'own brand' hotel openings this is their future - Casa Cook, Cook Club etc.

I don't believe that Thomas Cook sell at lot of the North American routes as packages - they don't have much of an outlet to do that, and don't have the reputation of USA holidays like Virgin Holidays does.

Does Thomas Cook in Germany sell a lot of the Condor routes as packages, I don't think so.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Wed May 29, 2019 4:14 pm

f4f3a wrote:
Does anyone know when the results eg preferred bidders etc will be announced ?


It was initally suggested the middle of July.
 
Boeing74741R
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 30, 2019 11:38 am

LuxuryTravelled wrote:
I don't believe that Thomas Cook sell at lot of the North American routes as packages - they don't have much of an outlet to do that, and don't have the reputation of USA holidays like Virgin Holidays does.


Virgin Holidays doesn't have a monopoly on US packages from the UK, particularly Florida, though I accept that they're a good option to look at if planning a package trip. They also bought the Travel City Direct brand after the demise of XL Airways/XL Leisure Group which from doing a few searches in the past was more of a lower cost proposition compared to the parent VH brand, however I noticed the TCD brand was phased out for good in 2018. Thomas Cook's growth in the US from MAN would suggest they are doing something right and I've known folk who have used them as they were more keenly priced than VS/Virgin Holidays.
 
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LuxuryTravelled
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Thu May 30, 2019 12:41 pm

Boeing74741R wrote:
LuxuryTravelled wrote:
I don't believe that Thomas Cook sell at lot of the North American routes as packages - they don't have much of an outlet to do that, and don't have the reputation of USA holidays like Virgin Holidays does.


Virgin Holidays doesn't have a monopoly on US packages from the UK, particularly Florida, though I accept that they're a good option to look at if planning a package trip. They also bought the Travel City Direct brand after the demise of XL Airways/XL Leisure Group which from doing a few searches in the past was more of a lower cost proposition compared to the parent VH brand, however I noticed the TCD brand was phased out for good in 2018. Thomas Cook's growth in the US from MAN would suggest they are doing something right and I've known folk who have used them as they were more keenly priced than VS/Virgin Holidays.


I'm not suggesting that Virgin Holidays has a monopoly, I'm suggesting that Virgin Atlantic/Holidays has a wider recognition for holidays to America, Travel City Direct was really part of the XL Group - when they had the Icelandic 747's - and yes, they were good at cheap packages to Florida. It was never really part of Virgin Holidays - they just brought the band when XL went bust and scooped up a bit of traffic by buying the name, albeit just using it to sell seats on the existing VS services.

The difference being that XL Tour Operator was closely linked to the airline - with Thomas Cook they don't they are separate entities. If you go on the Thomas Cook (Holidays) website, where are the promotions for holidays outside of Florida - there isn't any...
 
eagles94
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon Jun 03, 2019 2:15 pm

 
mattyfitzg
Topic Author
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:34 pm

What on earth would HiFly, an ACMI airline with 8 aircraft, want with Thomas Cook, an airline with over 30 aircraft, thousands of crew, and a well established route network??
 
dfpinto
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:51 pm

A comment from a "source familiar with the matter" is too vague to even take seriously. Hifly was one of the vultures in the demise of Germania, so my guess is that, if they are involved in the matter, they want to buy some of their frames for a very gentle price.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:55 pm

dfpinto wrote:
A comment from a "source familiar with the matter" is too vague to even take seriously. Hifly was one of the vultures in the demise of Germania, so my guess is that, if they are involved in the matter, they want to buy some of their frames for a very gentle price.


Would imagine TCX management are wise to this. Let’s hope the bid goes through the shredder.
 
3AWM
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:09 pm

I think what is on sale here is really closer to a sale and lease back transaction.

Thomas Cook needs cash now so they sell the rights to operating their holiday flights for x number of years to the buyer who when sells the flights back to them a seat at a time.

They would like continuity, the airline to be sold as a whole etc but its not really necessary, future service can be provided by anyone who has the capability, including Hi Fly.
 
JamesCousins
Posts: 385
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HiFly to bid for Thomas Cook Airlines

Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:29 pm

According to a Reuters source, HiFly has put in a preliminary bid for the airline division of Thomas Cook group, after it was put up for sale in February.

Thomas Cook put its airline up for sale in February, and Lufthansa, Virgin Atlantic and Indigo Partners are among the firms that have bid for part or all of the airline business.


While details on this are sparse so far, and all bidders must firm up their interest for when Thomas Cook formally looks over offers next month, what is HiFly's intent here? Is it to start offering more regular holiday charters, alongside it's adhoc business which is renowned for giving quick extra lift, as well as covering for outages such as what was seen with the Norweigen 787 route from LGW to JFK last year? Or is it more to get into the scheduled airline game, as while much of Thomas Cook's business is charter based there is a more 'scheduled' nature to this, particularly in season.

Source: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-thoma ... KKCN1T41P7

My brief analysis of the potential bidders and their interest:

Virgin Atlantic: Looking at the long haul arm to further airline expansion, coinciding with the recent FlyBe takeover. The long haul network of TATL and Carribean is very suited to Virgin's existing network and the fleet of A330s, while aging, suits Virgin's A330/A350/787 fleet vision nicely

Lufthansa: Primary interest understood to be in the German division of the airline, Condor - could there be issues with competition authorities here?

Indigo Partners: Interest unknown in terms of the whole business, or only a portion. Successful portfolio of short/medium-haul low cost carriers, but lacking a major British presence
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE
 
eagles94
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Re: HiFly to bid for Thomas Cook Airlines

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:27 pm

JamesCousins wrote:

While details on this are sparse so far, and all bidders must firm up their interest for when Thomas Cook formally looks over offers next month, what is HiFly's intent here? Is it to start offering more regular holiday charters, alongside it's adhoc business which is renowned for giving quick extra lift, as well as covering for outages such as what was seen with the Norweigen 787 route from LGW to JFK last year? Or is it more to get into the scheduled airline game, as while much of Thomas Cook's business is charter based there is a more 'scheduled' nature to this, particularly in season.



Would imagine their bid for TCX is more of a cheap lease-grab than anything. Get their hands on some cheap 321s/330s and then close the operation down.
 
JamesCousins
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Re: HiFly to bid for Thomas Cook Airlines

Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:39 pm

eagles94 wrote:
Would imagine their bid for TCX is more of a cheap lease-grab than anything. Get their hands on some cheap 321s/330s and then close the operation down.


Thing is that's one massive lease grab, you're talking over 100 aircraft across the group, and even if at least half go back that's still 50 frames. What to do with all of those frames?
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE
 
eagles94
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Re: HiFly to bid for Thomas Cook Airlines

Wed Jun 05, 2019 4:23 am

JamesCousins wrote:
eagles94 wrote:
Would imagine their bid for TCX is more of a cheap lease-grab than anything. Get their hands on some cheap 321s/330s and then close the operation down.


Thing is that's one massive lease grab, you're talking over 100 aircraft across the group, and even if at least half go back that's still 50 frames. What to do with all of those frames?


Not if the bid is limited to TCUK, which it apparently is.
 
Ryga
Posts: 48
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Re: Thomas Cook Airlines Selling Discussion Thread

Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:07 am

“Thomas Cook break-up looms as Fosun plots tour operator bid”

“A formal bid, w‎hich could come within weeks, would not include Thomas Cook's airline business, since Fosun would not be allowed to buy it under EU aviation ownership rules.”

https://news.sky.com/story/thomas-cook- ... d-11737591

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