Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 11:26 am

keesje wrote:
........ The original A300 fuselage got bigger, heavier and more capable over the last 45 years.
.........


Wing not fuselage ( The fuselage got slightly longer :-)
The OEW gain is in the wing.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 11:38 am

Agree Airbus can do with an EiS around 2030, Which would allow them to use engines one generation newer and most likely those would be enough to do an 8 abreast with similar or lower CASM to an 7 abreast, but also with normal cargo capacity.

If you look at the A300-600R, the OEW was around 78t metric tons and the around 6900km or around 3700nm. The engines alone should reduce fuel burn by 40%, which would give you around 5000nm range. So without any modifications you end up with about 50% more seats for 50% more OEW compared to an A321NEO.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 11:40 am

WIederling wrote:
keesje wrote:
........ The original A300 fuselage got bigger, heavier and more capable over the last 45 years.
.........


Wing not fuselage ( The fuselage got slightly longer :-)
The OEW gain is in the wing.


If we see the A300, A310, A330/40, A345/6 as unique wings, the NEO is the 5th wing on the A300 fuselage. (The A300 fuselage also changed significantly under the skin).

A 6th A300 wing, significant lighter, smaller and optimized could be plugged. But to be honest, I never saw/ heard of any Airbus innitiative to "767" the "overwinged" A330, so it seems highly unlikely.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1206
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 12:44 pm

sciing wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
This NMA/A321XLR must be keeping Keesje awake.
A 2025 EIS for a NMA is not realistic anymore, we're sliding into 2026 at the earliest.

The thing is, I would like to see Airbus sell more A330neos or A380's. Increasing the unit margin after the aircraft is going to cost hundreds of millions to certify doesn't sound like something to focus your energy on.

Every A330 that is produced at half the possible production rate of 120 per year is selling at half its sales margin.

There are 200 production slots going to waste i. The next 3 years.

That is what should be keeping Airbus awake.

Airbus has for sure not the capacity for 20 WB/month. You seem to forget that some parts of the A330/A350 FAL are shared.
Airbus did not invest in any extra outfitting stations S20 for the A350.


They have a FAL in Mobile and a completion center in China. The A380 facilities are winding down.
Time to build more A330neos, they have plenty of capacity, but is the new sales department capable of selling? They have booked cancellation over cancellation, no real orders and aside from the A350, there is not much to be excited about with the re-engined 1980's designs.

What are they thinking?

Launch the freaking A322 simple stretch and launch a bigger wing option on a separate line. Do something more than adding fuel tanks in the fuselage at the expense of payload.
Do something and secure the honeypot market below 250 seats.
Do something.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 2:18 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
sciing wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
This NMA/A321XLR must be keeping Keesje awake.
A 2025 EIS for a NMA is not realistic anymore, we're sliding into 2026 at the earliest.

The thing is, I would like to see Airbus sell more A330neos or A380's. Increasing the unit margin after the aircraft is going to cost hundreds of millions to certify doesn't sound like something to focus your energy on.

Every A330 that is produced at half the possible production rate of 120 per year is selling at half its sales margin.

There are 200 production slots going to waste i. The next 3 years.

That is what should be keeping Airbus awake.

Airbus has for sure not the capacity for 20 WB/month. You seem to forget that some parts of the A330/A350 FAL are shared.
Airbus did not invest in any extra outfitting stations S20 for the A350.


They have a FAL in Mobile and a completion center in China. The A380 facilities are winding down.
Time to build more A330neos, they have plenty of capacity, but is the new sales department capable of selling? They have booked cancellation over cancellation, no real orders and aside from the A350, there is not much to be excited about with the re-engined 1980's designs.

What are they thinking?

Launch the freaking A322 simple stretch and launch a bigger wing option on a separate line. Do something more than adding fuel tanks in the fuselage at the expense of payload.
Do something and secure the honeypot market below 250 seats.
Do something.


The ramp up of the NEO deliveries replacing the CEO was delayed by engine issues mainly. Not sure about your emotions on sales. Airbus seems to do all right. E.g. the A330NEO they signed 64 orders from 6 airlines over the last 12 months.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
manicottiK
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:56 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 2:24 pm

I've been watching the 321++/322/NMA/797/360/370 discussions here for years. My sense is that the aging out of 767 fleets, the growing ranges of modern widebodies, and the airlines' interest in more point-to-point flying are combining to create and enlarge a potential "middle" market. The recurring question is: which would offer better flying performance, a very long/slighter wide narrowbody or a short/slightly narrow widebody.

The exchange about that question back at #34 and #35 appeared to me as avoidance the question. Newbiepilot asked what, from an engineering perspective, had changed since Keesje proposed the long/wide narrowbody idea. Keesje responded with four market-based arguments for a "middle" market and then dismissed the engineering question.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Two years ago you made the same claim that a wider narrowbody would be more structurally efficient... ...[the] assertion couldn’t be backed up with engineering logic. What changed?


keesje wrote:
- instead of launching a 2-3-2 NMA, Boeing delayed launch in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
- Airbus proceeded developing the A321NEO, but in a conservative way.
- further A300s, 756s, 767s, A310 fleets were retired
- airlines increasingly showed interest but have limited options

Regarding structural efficiency of increased diameter long tubes, I will not explain again...


I am interested in that structural efficiency engineering question. Can Keesje or anyone else offer some information on this or a link?
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 2:42 pm

manicottiK wrote:
I've been watching the 321++/322/NMA/797/360/370 discussions here for years. My sense is that the aging out of 767 fleets, the growing ranges of modern widebodies, and the airlines' interest in more point-to-point flying are combining to create and enlarge a potential "middle" market. The recurring question is: which would offer better flying performance, a very long/slighter wide narrowbody or a short/slightly narrow widebody.

The exchange about that question back at #34 and #35 appeared to me as avoidance the question. Newbiepilot asked what, from an engineering perspective, had changed since Keesje proposed the long/wide narrowbody idea. Keesje responded with four market-based arguments for a "middle" market and then dismissed the engineering question.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Two years ago you made the same claim that a wider narrowbody would be more structurally efficient... ...[the] assertion couldn’t be backed up with engineering logic. What changed?


keesje wrote:
- instead of launching a 2-3-2 NMA, Boeing delayed launch in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
- Airbus proceeded developing the A321NEO, but in a conservative way.
- further A300s, 756s, 767s, A310 fleets were retired
- airlines increasingly showed interest but have limited options

Regarding structural efficiency of increased diameter long tubes, I will not explain again...


I am interested in that structural efficiency engineering question. Can Keesje or anyone else offer some information on this or a link?



viewtopic.php?t=1362655&start=750#p19987987

For unknown reasons Newbiepilot excludes it..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Zaf
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 9:47 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 3:00 pm

Airbus should wait for alternative powered engines. Fuel-powered jet engines might be banned by 2030. The A320NG will continue to sell another 10 years like hot cake.
 
User avatar
Vio
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2004 5:23 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 3:18 pm

Gr8Circle wrote:
I love it, the way some of these threads are titled...."Airbus just sitting on their hands?"......as though we here on a.net know more about running a multi-billion dollar business than they do.....


Exactly my thought. As I'm having my coffee, on my deck, I log into A.net and think: Boy, those guys are Boeing, Airbus etc must be "sitting on their hands". I bet I could solve their problems by the time I finish my coffee and chuckle at a cat video.

:) Spot on!
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 3:42 pm

Zaf wrote:
Airbus should wait for alternative powered engines. Fuel-powered jet engines might be banned by 2030. The A320NG will continue to sell another 10 years like hot cake.


I wonder if brand new engine technology is required for this project. There is no real competition in the 3500-4000NM, 240-300 seat (single class) segment. New engines could be introduced later on, I wouldn't delay a head start on such a big project for it.

For a company like Rolls, who (I think prematurely) left the huge NB market when PW got dominant in IAE, later next decade would be an opportunity. Because it enables them to create a medium engine (probably something 37-52 klbs, BPR 1:15, geared) using their Ultrafan Technology.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/rolls-royce-may-power-boeing-797-if-max-crisis-delays-jet_2904006.html

All three suppliers; CFM (GE-Safran), Rolls and Pratt want to have a go. It seems there will only be a place for 2 engines. I assume Pratt will be one, because they have matured the Geared technology furthest. Maybe Rolls can join them (again). CFM was totally dominant on NB's for the last 30 years, but things have changed.

GE decided geared technology wasn't mature enough for the LEAP

Then PW moved ahead on Cseries, NEO, MC21, MRJ, E2 & Boeing screws the LEAP only 737MAX. :headache:

A new situation with new trade-offs. Mark my words.

Image
Picture Rolls Rolls Ultrafan gearbox. https://www.aerotime.aero/yulius.yoma/14877-rolls-royce-runs-world-s-most-powerful-aerospace-gearbox
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
tealnz
Posts: 635
Joined: Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:47 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 3:56 pm

seahawk wrote:
Agree Airbus can do with an EiS around 2030, Which would allow them to use engines one generation newer and most likely those would be enough to do an 8 abreast with similar or lower CASM to an 7 abreast, but also with normal cargo capacity.

If you look at the A300-600R, the OEW was around 78t metric tons and the around 6900km or around 3700nm. The engines alone should reduce fuel burn by 40%, which would give you around 5000nm range. So without any modifications you end up with about 50% more seats for 50% more OEW compared to an A321NEO.


There has been a lot of chat about Asian carriers wanting a regional aircraft with serious hold capacity (in contrast to the apparently pax-oriented Boeing NMA). The A300/330 cross-section is ideal for two-abreast LD3s. Would a modernised A300 (aluminium fuselage, new CFRP wingbox and wing, new gear, optimised A330 systems...) suffer much of a weight disadvantage vis a vis an all-new design? I would assume not.
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 4:05 pm

Zaf wrote:
Airbus should wait for alternative powered engines. Fuel-powered jet engines might be banned by 2030. The A320NG will continue to sell another 10 years like hot cake.


there's no way that happens. even in cars, where we could in theory transition every new car sold to an ev, that change will happen over decades. And until we get things like graphene batteries, it's difficult to see how we could use anything other than jet fuel. Jet fuel has about 45 Megajoules per kg. The best batteries have about .4 MJ/kj. there simply isnt enough energy density.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 4:20 pm

keesje wrote:


Image
Quite interesting gear design. the Tooth form is intriguing.
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
seahawk
Posts: 9627
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 4:27 pm

tealnz wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Agree Airbus can do with an EiS around 2030, Which would allow them to use engines one generation newer and most likely those would be enough to do an 8 abreast with similar or lower CASM to an 7 abreast, but also with normal cargo capacity.

If you look at the A300-600R, the OEW was around 78t metric tons and the around 6900km or around 3700nm. The engines alone should reduce fuel burn by 40%, which would give you around 5000nm range. So without any modifications you end up with about 50% more seats for 50% more OEW compared to an A321NEO.


There has been a lot of chat about Asian carriers wanting a regional aircraft with serious hold capacity (in contrast to the apparently pax-oriented Boeing NMA). The A300/330 cross-section is ideal for two-abreast LD3s. Would a modernised A300 (aluminium fuselage, new CFRP wingbox and wing, new gear, optimised A330 systems...) suffer much of a weight disadvantage vis a vis an all-new design? I would assume not.

The question is if so many changes would be called a modernisation or a new design, in the end it is practically no difference. If you get sidewall a bit sculped 3-3-3 for short/medium haul would be attractive too.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 4:30 pm

WIederling wrote:
Quite interesting gear design. the Tooth form is intriguing.


Stared at it too. I guess cooling / robustness leads to different design choices.. Maybe a certain Moderator knows more.. :crossfingers:
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3641
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 5:35 pm

manicottiK wrote:
I've been watching the 321++/322/NMA/797/360/370 discussions here for years. My sense is that the aging out of 767 fleets, the growing ranges of modern widebodies, and the airlines' interest in more point-to-point flying are combining to create and enlarge a potential "middle" market. The recurring question is: which would offer better flying performance, a very long/slighter wide narrowbody or a short/slightly narrow widebody.

The exchange about that question back at #34 and #35 appeared to me as avoidance the question. Newbiepilot asked what, from an engineering perspective, had changed since Keesje proposed the long/wide narrowbody idea. Keesje responded with four market-based arguments for a "middle" market and then dismissed the engineering question.

Newbiepilot wrote:
Two years ago you made the same claim that a wider narrowbody would be more structurally efficient... ...[the] assertion couldn’t be backed up with engineering logic. What changed?


keesje wrote:
- instead of launching a 2-3-2 NMA, Boeing delayed launch in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
- Airbus proceeded developing the A321NEO, but in a conservative way.
- further A300s, 756s, 767s, A310 fleets were retired
- airlines increasingly showed interest but have limited options

Regarding structural efficiency of increased diameter long tubes, I will not explain again...


I am interested in that structural efficiency engineering question. Can Keesje or anyone else offer some information on this or a link?


We could speak in generalizations, but no one could really evaluate how to optimize fuselage width vs length. We don’t have the stress and loading data. Generalizing as if the fuselage is a cylinder doesn’t work because the loads are not just carried by the skin, but also longerons, stringers, chords and frames.

The only comparisons given were OEW differences between the 757, 767 and A310. The problem is that the 767 was designed for more than a 50% higher payload and has a wing that is 3000 sq ft vs the 2000 sq ft 757 wing. There was no way to actually evaluate if a wider 6 abreast fuselage like what Keesje suggested is going to be lower weight than a narrower 6 abreast fuselage. We don’t have the engineering data here to assess at what passenger capacities 6, 7 and 8 abreast configurations are best optimized for. We just compared, contrasted and argued with Airbus enthusiasts saying 6 abreast is better and Boeing enthusiasts suggesting a widebody is better.
 
StTim
Posts: 3684
Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 05, 2019 6:03 pm

keesje wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Quite interesting gear design. the Tooth form is intriguing.


Stared at it too. I guess cooling / robustness leads to different design choices.. Maybe a certain Moderator knows more.. :crossfingers:


Not see gear teeth like that before. Very interesting.
 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Mon May 06, 2019 10:59 am

keesje wrote:
A 6th A300 wing, significant lighter, smaller and optimized could be plugged. But to be honest, I never saw/ heard of any Airbus innitiative to "767" the "overwinged" A330, so it seems highly unlikely.


There is this NB (more) laminar flow wing in the works at Airbus.
I don't think they will trash that project just to frustrate A.net posters :-)

But my guess is that that wing will go on a clean sheet design ( with the added advantage of a aerodynamically clean fuselage.)

We'll see :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
mr02
Posts: 190
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:51 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Mon May 06, 2019 4:02 pm

Is it possible to stretch the A321? I know its already a stretch of the A320 but what do you guys think?
 
User avatar
qf789
Moderator
Posts: 11097
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2015 3:42 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sat May 11, 2019 4:16 pm

Could we please discuss the topic and keep the off topic and personal comments out of the discussion
Forum Moderator
 
DenverTed
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sat May 11, 2019 7:49 pm

keesje, I like the idea. And the question, what should Airbus build for their next fuselage and next new wing?
A new fuselage, perhaps 164" o.d. (4.17m). Metal or CFRP? 50m length to start, perhaps a 54m stretch.
Wing, range, and engines? Go heavy, or stay on the light side?
 
Babyshark
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sat May 11, 2019 8:37 pm

DocLightning wrote:
[Airbus needs to continue developing new models to basically keep in-house talent up to snuff. If they stop developing new models, they will lose that talent.


Where would they go? Im Mr Engineer and I'm bored at Airbus where we make airliners, helicopters, military aircraft, UAVs and space stuff and I want to go to... [fill in blank]
 
DenverTed
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:12 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sat May 11, 2019 10:05 pm

Where Boeing wants to get the jump on a 2026/27 EIS, they will most likely go with a CFM non-geared derivative. Airbus can wait for a 2030 EIS and wait for the RR Ultrafan to develop. In the mean time, a 3m stretch of the A321, a beefed up wing structure and folding wingtips?
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2155
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sat May 11, 2019 11:36 pm

StTim wrote:
keesje wrote:
WIederling wrote:
Quite interesting gear design. the Tooth form is intriguing.


Stared at it too. I guess cooling / robustness leads to different design choices.. Maybe a certain Moderator knows more.. :crossfingers:


Not see gear teeth like that before. Very interesting.


First thought was 'strange!', then intrigued. Could do replaceable teeth with that design.
 
2175301
Posts: 1763
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 4:28 am

I doubt that Airbus is eager to enter the mid sized market with a new aircraft. One of the arguments on why the Boeing NMA (797?) has taken so long is that the economic window is very tight - and that they have had to spend years with lots of engineers to apparently get an aircraft that can be sold cheap enough with sufficient profit to interest the airlines. Even Boeing admits that the Business Case has been a challenge for the NMA (797?); and per their announced plans they will offer it first... and see if they get enough orders to justify production.

I have never seen a suggestion that the mid sized market is large enough to support 2 aircraft from anyone who has even a half an understanding of market economics.

Thus, the suggestion that Airbus may be planning something here is in my opinion laughable...

On the other hand... Some people like to repost their old designs and arguments over and over... and over some more - even though the market has not really changed.

Until the next generation engines are really here (and it seems that the late 2020's is more likely than 2025/26 on those)... there is really not that much room for a new aircraft in several market slots. Marginal improvements, yes (which could include new wings on some aircraft - and perhaps re-engine some others).

New aircraft designed from scratch. Not realistically plausible in my opinion (and I think the NSA replacement of the 737 will depend on new engines).

Have a great day,
 
planecane
Posts: 1558
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 5:10 am

Zaf wrote:
Airbus should wait for alternative powered engines. Fuel-powered jet engines might be banned by 2030. The A320NG will continue to sell another 10 years like hot cake.

In 11 years airplanes will be powered by flying unicorns.

There is a 0% chance that a battery powered aircraft in the transport size category with a range of more than 500 miles will be technically feasible in 11 years.

The far more likely scenario is biofuel based jet fuel will be able to be produced in high enough quantities and low enough price to replace fossil fuels for airliners. This will not require new engines as it had already been tested on current jet engines.
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 6:15 am

2175301 wrote:
I doubt that Airbus is eager to enter the mid sized market with a new aircraft. One of the arguments on why the Boeing NMA (797?) has taken so long is that the economic window is very tight - and that they have had to spend years with lots of engineers to apparently get an aircraft that can be sold cheap enough with sufficient profit to interest the airlines.
..
Until the next generation engines are really here (and it seems that the late 2020's is more likely than 2025/26 on those)... there is really not that much room for a new aircraft in several market slots.


So what would power the NMA then, Boeing spend so much time & now you suggest there is no engine.. seems inconsistent. An aircraft design can be prepared for future, larger, more efficient engines.


DenverTed wrote:
keesje, I like the idea. And the question, what should Airbus build for their next fuselage and next new wing?
A new fuselage, perhaps 164" o.d. (4.17m). Metal or CFRP? 50m length to start, perhaps a 54m stretch.
Wing, range, and engines? Go heavy, or stay on the light side?


I think both Boeing and Airbus are a bit risk averse, current technology (TRL)'s would suggest a composite wing, AlLi fuselage and enhanced current generation A350, 787 system technology. More 3D printed, more various composite technologies used for specific applications etc.

I think a medium design would be more tailored towards high efficiency on shorter flights then a capability reserve to fly more further. That would lead to payload range trade-off's for larger versions when not much addition wing/ MTOW margin is left in the lean basic design of such medium aircraft.

Image
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 6:55 am

planecane wrote:
There is a 0% chance that a battery powered aircraft in the transport size category with a range of more than 500 miles will be technically feasible in 11 years.

The far more likely scenario is biofuel based jet fuel will be able to be produced in high enough quantities and low enough price to replace fossil fuels for airliners. This will not require new engines as it had already been tested on current jet engines.


Beamed Power from Satellites in orbit. :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
ELBOB
Posts: 319
Joined: Sun Jun 21, 2015 6:56 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 7:18 am

musman9853 wrote:

Y'know, I always forget that composite fuselages were first rolled out In 1989. Oh wait, they were rolled out decades later.


Image
 
WIederling
Posts: 9291
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 7:28 am

ELBOB wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

Y'know, I always forget that composite fuselages were first rolled out In 1989. Oh wait, they were rolled out decades later.


https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http ... earFan.jpg


1970:
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFB_X-113
( First that came to mind. more around.)
Murphy is an optimist
 
User avatar
keesje
Topic Author
Posts: 13827
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 9:11 am

I think one of the limitations of composites fuselages for NB aircraft is production. Autoclave thermo hardening for more than 20 aircraft a month requires enormous investments. Maybe the pannel technology used by Airbus provides better opportunities to outsource and organize logistics than mandrel technology used by Boeing on the Dreamliner.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
planecane
Posts: 1558
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 12:54 pm

WIederling wrote:
planecane wrote:
There is a 0% chance that a battery powered aircraft in the transport size category with a range of more than 500 miles will be technically feasible in 11 years.

The far more likely scenario is biofuel based jet fuel will be able to be produced in high enough quantities and low enough price to replace fossil fuels for airliners. This will not require new engines as it had already been tested on current jet engines.


Beamed Power from Satellites in orbit. :-)

In 11 years? I think not! :-)
 
JHwk
Posts: 577
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:11 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 2:28 pm

planecane wrote:
There is a 0% chance that a battery powered aircraft in the transport size category with a range of more than 500 miles will be technically feasible in 11 years.

In 11 years I would expect electric hybrid to be viable, if nothing else but to limit emissions around airports.
 
2175301
Posts: 1763
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 2:44 pm

keesje wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I doubt that Airbus is eager to enter the mid sized market with a new aircraft. One of the arguments on why the Boeing NMA (797?) has taken so long is that the economic window is very tight - and that they have had to spend years with lots of engineers to apparently get an aircraft that can be sold cheap enough with sufficient profit to interest the airlines.
..
Until the next generation engines are really here (and it seems that the late 2020's is more likely than 2025/26 on those)... there is really not that much room for a new aircraft in several market slots.


So what would power the NMA then, Boeing spend so much time & now you suggest there is no engine.. seems inconsistent. An aircraft design can be prepared for future, larger, more efficient engines.


Boeing can likely make it work with existing near future engines because they have invested years of effort into optimizing an aircraft to do just that, including over a year working with engine manufacturers.

Airbus has not done so - and no quick concept aircraft from them can compete with something fine tuned with years of working with the airlines with hundreds and now thousand + engineers working on it. If you are going to make a "tight business case" work... you have to invest the time, money, and research up front to do so. Airbus has not, and in my opinion would not even try because of the expected market size. The odds of them totally blowing it and ending with a financial disaster would be very high.

Have a great day,
 
musman9853
Posts: 961
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 12:30 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 2:49 pm

WIederling wrote:
ELBOB wrote:
musman9853 wrote:

Y'know, I always forget that composite fuselages were first rolled out In 1989. Oh wait, they were rolled out decades later.


https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http ... earFan.jpg


1970:
Image
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RFB_X-113
( First that came to mind. more around.)


Yes, composite fuselages have been around for a while in experimental form. It wasn't till the 787 and a350 that they were used in large scale for commercial aircraft.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
NZ321
Posts: 1211
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 3:05 pm

WIederling wrote:
keesje wrote:
A 6th A300 wing, significant lighter, smaller and optimized could be plugged. But to be honest, I never saw/ heard of any Airbus innitiative to "767" the "overwinged" A330, so it seems highly unlikely.


There is this NB (more) laminar flow wing in the works at Airbus.
I don't think they will trash that project just to frustrate A.net posters :-)

But my guess is that that wing will go on a clean sheet design ( with the added advantage of a aerodynamically clean fuselage.)

We'll see :-)


I agree fully. This wing will not be put on a current fuselage. They will take the chance for new config fuselage and wing.
Plane mad!
 
NZ321
Posts: 1211
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 3:10 pm

2175301 wrote:
keesje wrote:
2175301 wrote:
I doubt that Airbus is eager to enter the mid sized market with a new aircraft. One of the arguments on why the Boeing NMA (797?) has taken so long is that the economic window is very tight - and that they have had to spend years with lots of engineers to apparently get an aircraft that can be sold cheap enough with sufficient profit to interest the airlines.
..
Until the next generation engines are really here (and it seems that the late 2020's is more likely than 2025/26 on those)... there is really not that much room for a new aircraft in several market slots.


So what would power the NMA then, Boeing spend so much time & now you suggest there is no engine.. seems inconsistent. An aircraft design can be prepared for future, larger, more efficient engines.


Boeing can likely make it work with existing near future engines because they have invested years of effort into optimizing an aircraft to do just that, including over a year working with engine manufacturers.

Airbus has not done so - and no quick concept aircraft from them can compete with something fine tuned with years of working with the airlines with hundreds and now thousand + engineers working on it. If you are going to make a "tight business case" work... you have to invest the time, money, and research up front to do so. Airbus has not, and in my opinion would not even try because of the expected market size. The odds of them totally blowing it and ending with a financial disaster would be very high.

Have a great day,


I think not. What evidence do you have to support your assertions? Just because it isn't in the public domain doesn't mean that it isn't happening. Airbus have been looking at future prospects for a decade on all their current production airliners. Hence Neos. Hence Ultra-fan. Do you seriously think they dropped the A380 on nothing? They know where they need to put their resources and the A380 wasn't it. Sad but a reality. But I don't doubt Airbus are working on solutions for their future. Otherwise we might as well pack our bags guys, becuase it's looking like without both A & B we're down to very boring times. :)
Plane mad!
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Moderator
Posts: 19691
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 3:24 pm

NZ321 wrote:
2175301 wrote:
keesje wrote:

So what would power the NMA then, Boeing spend so much time & now you suggest there is no engine.. seems inconsistent. An aircraft design can be prepared for future, larger, more efficient engines.


Boeing can likely make it work with existing near future engines because they have invested years of effort into optimizing an aircraft to do just that, including over a year working with engine manufacturers.

Airbus has not done so - and no quick concept aircraft from them can compete with something fine tuned with years of working with the airlines with hundreds and now thousand + engineers working on it. If you are going to make a "tight business case" work... you have to invest the time, money, and research up front to do so. Airbus has not, and in my opinion would not even try because of the expected market size. The odds of them totally blowing it and ending with a financial disaster would be very high.

Have a great day,


I think not. What evidence do you have to support your assertions? Just because it isn't in the public domain doesn't mean that it isn't happening. Airbus have been looking at future prospects for a decade on all their current production airliners. Hence Neos. Hence Ultra-fan. Do you seriously think they dropped the A380 on nothing? They know where they need to put their resources and the A380 wasn't it. Sad but a reality. But I don't doubt Airbus are working on solutions for their future. Otherwise we might as well pack our bags guys, becuase it's looking like without both A & B we're down to very boring times. :)

Airbus has an excellent mini-BWB concept I had the privilege of attending a lunch lecture on. A small amount larger than the NMA, but similar costs per flight (lower cost per passenger). So I know they have projects.

Unfortunately, Airbus was distracted by the A380 and A330NEO. Boeing has multiple years of large team engineering on the NMA. E.g., Airbus was late to counter the 767 that clobbered the A300/A310, but we all consider the A330 excellent when it finally arrived.

To make a VLA means betting the company on it. Airbus did so-so. The worst impact vis it gave Boeing time to recover on the 787, develop the 777x, and start on the NMA with enough time. This has suppressed Airbus profits and boosted Boeing's. Meh... We'll ave A vs. B here for decades to come.

Lightsaber
IM messages to mods on warnings and bans will be ignored and nasty ones will result in a ban.
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 23891
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 3:36 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I think not. What evidence do you have to support your assertions? Just because it isn't in the public domain doesn't mean that it isn't happening. Airbus have been looking at future prospects for a decade on all their current production airliners. Hence Neos. Hence Ultra-fan. Do you seriously think they dropped the A380 on nothing? They know where they need to put their resources and the A380 wasn't it. Sad but a reality. But I don't doubt Airbus are working on solutions for their future. Otherwise we might as well pack our bags guys, becuase it's looking like without both A & B we're down to very boring times. :)

I think you are over-reacting in a general way to a pretty precisely worded post that addressed the NMA.

Boeing has developed the NMA concept to the point where it has been shown to airlines whose CEOs have made public comments on it, and is known to have hundreds if not thousands of engineers working on it, and has engaged engine manufacturers who have made at least two rounds of proposals to Boeing specifically for the NMA. Many prominent a.net members have said the project is a go.

I'm very sure Airbus is working on many concepts for the middle of the market and all other market spaces too, but none have advanced to the point where Airbus has no choice but signal that they are coming soon with the exception of the A321XLR, which the Airbus CCO has said already has firm orders.

Just to be clear, I also don't doubt Airbus are working on solutions for their future, and no one with any credibility at all can deny that, but that's not what the original post said.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4086
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 4:20 pm

Boeing survived the years when the 330 was beating it
Airbus survived the years when the 777 was the wonder plane
Boeing was/hopefully will survive with the 737 as the 321 is the wonder plane

Airbus will survive even if the MOM becomes a real hit, and Airbus is say, 3-5 years behind in developing a competitor

Either company needs to make several hundred planes a year, and good profit margins for investors and for R&D money for the next generation. Both are. But Boeing will lose upwards a year's profits, Airbus is a little slow in earning the profits they want.

Airbus likely will look at sales after the MOM is offered. Moderate to good sales 321/322 upgrade, huge sales likely launch a (slightly) bigger MOM.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2155
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Boeing NMA planning - Will Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Sun May 12, 2019 10:49 pm

Airbus first responded to the 787 with the 350 mk 1, then went with the XWB to get it right. Introduction 2 to 3 years after the 787. Boeing gave them a big gift by blowing the 787 introduction. The response after the 787 was out allowed them to position the response to the best point available.

The MAX issues have changed the certification of major changes to an aircraft where grandfathering might not now be allowed. For example a new wing for the A321 could now have problems.

The NMA/NSA will for sure have a glass cockpit like the 787/777x, so pilots will need to go thru qualifications. It will also be designed for efficient production. Airbus will likely need to respond with a new plane similar to the A322 and the shorter model a long range A321 sized plane. It will mark the beginning of the end for 737 & A320 production. Both will be in production for the next 15 to 20 years.
 
CowAnon
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:03 am

Re: MAX impact on Boeing NMA planning, Airbus just sitting on their hands?

Mon May 13, 2019 7:05 am

keesje wrote:

Off-topic, but why does Rolls-Royce need a gearbox of that size? Isn't 100,000 horsepower far overpowered for existing engines? If I'm doing the calculations correctly, that could power a turbofan engine with 200,000 pounds of thrust at sea level. Was RR working on a twin-engine version of the A380?

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos