Icelandair considers A321neo and possible all-Airbus fleet

Breathe · Tue May 07, 2019 5:12 pm

It would be a bit of a surprise to see them to totally switch to an all-Airbus fleet. Perhaps its a negotiation tactic with Boeing or perhaps they'll go mixed fleet.

Icelandair Group is considering switching to an all-Airbus fleet, or the introduction of A321neos to succeed the Boeing 757, as part of a long-term strategic review.

The main airline company, Icelandair, is intending to take its all-Boeing fleet from 33 to 50 aircraft by 2025, with 26 of them a mix of Boeing 737 Max 8s and 9s.

These would partly replace the 757 fleet which would fall from 23 to 19 – including a pair of 757-300s – while five 767-300s would make up the balance.

Under its current fleet strategy the 757 fleet will be phased out in favour of the 737 Max.

But Icelandair Group states, in a first-quarter briefing, that other scenarios are under consideration for the longer term.

These include accelerating the phase-out of 757s with the introduction of A321neos to operate alongside the 737s.

Icelandair Group is also looking at a possible transition to an all-Airbus fleet. It says this would involve all Boeing jets to be withdrawn as it moves to a fleet “composed entirely” of Airbus models.

The company’s 737 Max fleet is grounded, as a result of global regulatory action against the type, and this affected Icelandair’s first-quarter performance. Three 737 Max jets had been delivered to the airline in March, taking its fleet of the type to six.

Armodeen · Tue May 07, 2019 5:18 pm

Wow. Even as a negotiating tactic that is pretty hardcore.

Dutchy · Tue May 07, 2019 5:24 pm

This sounds quite strange. they couldn't get the A32XNEO at the same phase as the 737MAX8/9, no slots available.

Slash787 · Tue May 07, 2019 5:24 pm

A321neo is a great aircraft, so good choice, for the 767's they should replace it with A338neo. But it is weird why din't they order B787 and B737-10MAX. If I am not mistaken they did order B787 and later cancelled it or they din't order it all?

Dutchy · Tue May 07, 2019 5:25 pm

This sounds quite strange. they couldn't get the A32XNEO at the same phase as the 737MAX8/9, no slots available.

Olddog · Tue May 07, 2019 5:25 pm

Maybe Airbus solved the Fish problem ? :lol:

FlyHPN · Tue May 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Here's the source: https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... us-457975/

PlanesNTrains · Tue May 07, 2019 5:30 pm

No reason it couldn't happen.

SRQKEF · Tue May 07, 2019 5:31 pm

viewtopic.php?t=1416133

This had already emerged in February, however this week's statement was an even stronger inclination that the all-Airbus plan is a serious possibility.

SRQKEF · Tue May 07, 2019 5:35 pm

Slash787 wrote:
A321neo is a great aircraft, so good choice, for the 767's they should replace it with A338neo. But it is weird why din't they order B787 and B737-10MAX. If I am not mistaken they did order B787 and later cancelled it or they din't order it all?

They ordered the 787 at a very different time in ther history, in fact they were one of the very first customers. It was ordered before the big financial crash of 2008 and in reality it was more of a prestige thing than anything with a solid plan behind it. Most of the ordered 787s were sold to Norwegian, and while one still remains on Boeing's books FI has confirmed that frame will end up elsewhere.

lavalampluva · Tue May 07, 2019 5:48 pm

If this is true I'm sure other airlines are feeling a bit like keeping Boeing at arms length. Sounds like a rocky road ahead for Boeing.

dc855 · Tue May 07, 2019 6:03 pm

I think Icelandair now realizes that their decision to go for the MAX instead of the NEO (and it was a close call!) was a mistake as perceptive people could already see back in 2013 when the choice was made. The A321 and especially the LR version is easily the airplane that comes closest to fitting their needs. And the likely introduction of the XLR which would be capable of flying to places like LAX, SAN and SFO from KEF just makes it more obvious. To be fair to the board, they probably did not know about that possibility back then.

I don't think this has anything to do with the MAX groundings or Icelandair being unhappy about their relationship with Boeing. It is just that Airbus has a product that is more suitable.

Asiaflyer · Tue May 07, 2019 6:11 pm

dc855 wrote:
I think Icelandair now realizes that their decision to go for the MAX instead of the NEO (and it was a close call!) was a mistake as perceptive people could already see back in 2013 when the choice was made. The A321 and especially the LR version is easily the airplane that comes closest to fitting their needs. And the likely introduction of the XLR which would be capable of flying to places like LAX, SAN and SFO from KEF just makes it more obvious. To be fair to the board, they probably did not know about that possibility back then.

I don't think this has anything to do with the MAX groundings or Icelandair being unhappy about their relationship with Boeing. It is just that Airbus has a product that is more suitable.

I agree, and on the larger end it wouldnt surprise me if Icelandair orders 787 again, or possibly the NMA once lauched.

ikolkyo · Tue May 07, 2019 6:13 pm

Wouldn't surprise me if this was a tactic to get a better deal on more MAX or get them to launch NMA. Now is the time to pressure Boeing into deals with whole MAX fiasco. Garuda seems to have gotten an amazing deal because it.

Luftymatt · Tue May 07, 2019 6:14 pm

Slash787 wrote:
A321neo is a great aircraft, so good choice, for the 767's they should replace it with A338neo. But it is weird why din't they order B787 and B737-10MAX. If I am not mistaken they did order B787 and later cancelled it or they din't order it all?

Agreed, the combo of A338 and A321NEO /LR would be a great one for Icelandair.
You're right on the 787 quite short sighted IMO, especially considering their strategy (at the time and now) to build Keflavik as a North Atlantic hub.

ElroyJetson · Tue May 07, 2019 6:16 pm

Boeing has dragged their feet on the NMA and Airbus currently has the best alternative available to replace the 757 on longer sectors.

The A321 LR is fine plane. I don't blame Icelandair one bit.

mxaxai · Tue May 07, 2019 6:23 pm

Luftymatt wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
A321neo is a great aircraft, so good choice, for the 767's they should replace it with A338neo. But it is weird why din't they order B787 and B737-10MAX. If I am not mistaken they did order B787 and later cancelled it or they din't order it all?

Agreed, the combo of A338 and A321NEO /LR would be a great one for Icelandair.

The combo of 738MAX and 797 would be an even better one ...

But with Boeing not ready to commit to the 797, and with the 737 MAX in temporary trouble, the second best option might become viable.

JerseyFlyer · Tue May 07, 2019 6:35 pm

There must be a lot of delivery positions opejing up from the clutch of airline failures over the past 12 months - or have they ALL been reallocated already?

dc855 · Tue May 07, 2019 6:36 pm

The key point is that Icelandair will not be needing any "combos" of different airplanes if they go for the A321 (including the LR and XLR). That single type can fulfill every one of their requirements with the added bonus of more simplicity and cost savings that only having one airplane type brings.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 6:38 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
There must be a lot of delivery positions opejing up from the clutch of airline failures over the past 12 months - or have they ALL been reallocated already?

I don't think so, and it would be the end of another Boeing-only carrier if Airbus can sell some of these frames to Icelandair.

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 6:46 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Boeing has dragged their feet on the NMA and Airbus currently has the best alternative available to replace the 757 on longer sectors.

The A321 LR is fine plane. I don't blame Icelandair one bit.

What’s your source to state that Boeing has dragged their feet on NMA? I’m not seeing that at all.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 6:57 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Boeing has dragged their feet on the NMA and Airbus currently has the best alternative available to replace the 757 on longer sectors.

The A321 LR is fine plane. I don't blame Icelandair one bit.

What’s your source to state that Boeing has dragged their feet on NMA? I’m not seeing that at all.

We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

PlymSpotter · Tue May 07, 2019 6:57 pm

I have thought all along that the 737MAX made a very poor B757 replacement compared to the A321NEO, especially considering the importance of Cargo.

That said, I can see the 737MAX order being kept and the aircraft leased out via their partner company or transferred to TACV - I'm not sure how quickly they want to ramp up the operation there.

Dominion301 · Tue May 07, 2019 7:06 pm

dc855 wrote:
The key point is that Icelandair will not be needing any "combos" of different airplanes if they go for the A321 (including the LR and XLR). That single type can fulfill every one of their requirements with the added bonus of more simplicity and cost savings that only having one airplane type brings.

I could see a few 320 NEOs being part of the mix for their close-in and/or smaller destinations like YHZ and provide the opportunity for some smaller cities to grow into a 321. The current Airbus product line (and anticipated XLR) do seem to be a better fit for FI's ops than Boeing's offering.

Chemist · Tue May 07, 2019 7:09 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Luftymatt wrote:
Slash787 wrote:
A321neo is a great aircraft, so good choice, for the 767's they should replace it with A338neo. But it is weird why din't they order B787 and B737-10MAX. If I am not mistaken they did order B787 and later cancelled it or they din't order it all?

Agreed, the combo of A338 and A321NEO /LR would be a great one for Icelandair.

The combo of 738MAX and 797 would be an even better one ...

But with Boeing not ready to commit to the 797, and with the 737 MAX in temporary trouble, the second best option might become viable.

The 797 doesn't exist, it is a paper aircraft.
Posters in these forums for years have stated that the 757 market was too small, that other aircraft can fill most of the gap. So by definition Boeing must not care if Icelandair goes Airbus. Boeing has dragged for 15 years on a decent 757 replacement.

SASViking · Tue May 07, 2019 7:33 pm

dc855 wrote:
The key point is that Icelandair will not be needing any "combos" of different airplanes if they go for the A321 (including the LR and XLR). That single type can fulfill every one of their requirements with the added bonus of more simplicity and cost savings that only having one airplane type brings.

No doubt that the A321's are great planes, but they can't fulfill every requirement that FI have. They need something bigger, such as the A330Neo or 787 too. They need them for slot restricted airports such as LHR and AMS and for the larger cargo capacity on some routes.

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 7:50 pm

IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Boeing has dragged their feet on the NMA and Airbus currently has the best alternative available to replace the 757 on longer sectors.

The A321 LR is fine plane. I don't blame Icelandair one bit.

What’s your source to state that Boeing has dragged their feet on NMA? I’m not seeing that at all.

We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

bennett123 · Tue May 07, 2019 7:53 pm

Their B757 currently average 23 years old. Can they wait until 2025.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 7:59 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

What’s your source to state that Boeing has dragged their feet on NMA? I’m not seeing that at all.

We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

A clean-sleet design without delays? If it becomes - lets say - 2030, Icelandairs' 752 fleet will be 35 years(!) old.
It is time for them to look at other options.

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 8:01 pm

IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:

We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

A clean-sleet design without delays? If it becomes - lets say - 2030, Icelandairs' 752 fleet will be 35 years(!) old.
It is time for them to look at other options.

It’s a clean sheet design. I can’t yet predict if there will be any delays.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 8:04 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

A clean-sleet design without delays? If it becomes - lets say - 2030, Icelandairs' 752 fleet will be 35 years(!) old.
It is time for them to look at other options.

It’s a clean sheet design. I can’t yet predict if there will be any delays.

Almost all clean sheet designs have delays. It is something Icelandair has to take in account.
This is not me bashing Boeing, but the last 757 build will be 15 years old this year. They seem a little late.

transswede · Tue May 07, 2019 8:10 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

Which Boeing insider told you that? :-)

Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

CRJ900 · Tue May 07, 2019 8:17 pm

If Lufthansa takes over Condor/Thomas Cook, they can sell their B757-300s to Icelandair. They are younger than the B752 and have decent cycle counts as they fly 2-5-hour flights to holiday destinations, so four cycles a day on average.

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 8:18 pm

transswede wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
We also don't see the NMA, so that should be your evidence.

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 8:26 pm

CRJ900 wrote:
If Lufthansa takes over Condor/Thomas Cook, they can sell their B757-300s to Icelandair. They are younger than the B752 and have decent cycle counts as they fly 2-5-hour flights to holiday destinations, so four cycles a day on average.

Yeah they could, but that is a big if. Also, these planes are almost 20 years old, so it would be a short term solution. Too short perhaps.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 8:29 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
transswede wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

william · Tue May 07, 2019 8:33 pm

IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
transswede wrote:

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Its not a secret, its been in the news for awhile. 2025 service date.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ays-launch

"Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc could re-enter the competition to power a medium-sized jetliner under development at Boeing Co. if the U.S. planemaker pushes the project back to help cope with the 737 Max crisis.

Rolls, which exited the New Midsize Aircraft program earlier this year saying a new engine won’t be ready for the plane to enter service in 2025, may return to the contest if the timetable slips, Chief Executive Officer Warren East said Thursday at the company’s annual shareholder meeting in Bristol, England."

1989worstyear · Tue May 07, 2019 8:35 pm

IWMBH wrote:
CRJ900 wrote:
If Lufthansa takes over Condor/Thomas Cook, they can sell their B757-300s to Icelandair. They are younger than the B752 and have decent cycle counts as they fly 2-5-hour flights to holiday destinations, so four cycles a day on average.

Yeah they could, but that is a big if. Also, these planes are almost 20 years old, so it would be a short term solution. Too short perhaps.

Many of LH's A320 CEO's are 10+ years older with no replacements.

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 8:44 pm

IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
transswede wrote:

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

IWMBH · Tue May 07, 2019 8:47 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

But time to face reality, even if they make it the youngest 757 will be 20 years old. And the Icelandair fleet will be 30 years old.
That is old already, and with a bit of delay most 757 will have long been retired by then.

PA727 · Tue May 07, 2019 9:01 pm

IWMBH wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
IWMBH wrote:

But time to face reality, even if they make it the youngest 757 will be 20 years old. And the Icelandair fleet will be 30 years old.
That is old already, and with a bit of delay most 757 will have long been retired by then.

If spec-built houses drive builders to bankruptcy, can you imagine what would happen with a spec-built airliner? While everyone may know and believe a replacement for the 757 is needed, no sane manufacturer will announce it, much less build it, unless the money and orders are there. If I were a betting man (and I am,) my guess is there's a lot of back and forth happening outside the public eye between Boeing and those that will be the blue chip launch customers as the design and critical features are being developed. The right time is when the customers and the return on investment say the time is right.

I say this purely from a business perspective and not as any type of aerospace expert. Also, I'm not so great at betting either.

American 767 · Tue May 07, 2019 9:03 pm

Chemist wrote:
The 797 doesn't exist, it is a paper aircraft.
.

Not yet, maybe it will.
Every aircraft that exists in reality was a paper aircraft when it was under study. Remember, back in the early 2000s the 787 also was just a paper aircraft, back then it was still called the 7E7.

I think that the A321NEO and the 797 if the latter becomes reality would be the best aircraft for Icelandair in the mid 2020s when the 757s retire.

Now here is a question. I don't mean to start an A vs B argument, no offense to A or B fans, but is Icelandair looking at the A321NEO because they are really interested in it, or they look at it because the 737MAX is grounded by worldwide aviation authorities? So in other words, would they be considering the NEO if the MAX wasn't grounded? I think they would, because they haven't said either they would cancel the remaining MAX on order, and the MAX is likely to return to service before the end of this year, but they probably wouldn't announce the idea of going all Airbus.

jmmadrid · Tue May 07, 2019 9:37 pm

We discussed this subject a few months ago, basically some airlines are losing patience with Boeing and the clock in their ageing planes is going tic-tac while Boeing seems unable to get their act together.

airbazar · Tue May 07, 2019 9:46 pm

Dutchy wrote:
This sounds quite strange. they couldn't get the A32XNEO at the same phase as the 737MAX8/9, no slots available.

At the rate airlines are going out of business or deferring orders I think you will see lots of slots open up. Germania alone just freed up 20 delivery slots starting next year. Has Norwegian found a buyer for the 90 or so NEO's that they were trying to get rid of?

Antarius · Tue May 07, 2019 9:49 pm

CRJ900 wrote:
If Lufthansa takes over Condor/Thomas Cook, they can sell their B757-300s to Icelandair. They are younger than the B752 and have decent cycle counts as they fly 2-5-hour flights to holiday destinations, so four cycles a day on average.

Why would LH want to buy Condor and then dump the 753 (a plane that has been successful for them)?

whywhyzee · Tue May 07, 2019 9:54 pm

The challenge they face, among others is a matter of timing. The 797 as we assume it will end up being IS the best option for them, no question. However, it won't even enter into service until 2025, and for the first couple years, deliveries will be slow as production ramps up and kinks are sorted out. At best, with no delays, an airline cannot expect to have a meaningfully large fleet until close to the end of the next decade. That may well be too long for Icelandair to wait, it will certainly be really pushing their fleet to the max in terms of what they can do with their age and upcoming maintenance requirements. The A321neoLR is not ideal, and won't cover all of their needs, but it is already available, meaning in a couple years, they can already have a fleet up and running. Combined with A330neos to cover their heaviest routes, it seems to me that this, while a less than ideal solution, is better than waiting for something that may start coming in 6 years, or may take even longer. Better a bird in the hand then two in the bush...

Dutchy · Tue May 07, 2019 10:05 pm

airbazar wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
This sounds quite strange. they couldn't get the A32XNEO at the same phase as the 737MAX8/9, no slots available.

At the rate airlines are going out of business or deferring orders I think you will see lots of slots open up. Germania alone just freed up 20 delivery slots starting next year. Has Norwegian found a buyer for the 90 or so NEO's that they were trying to get rid of?

You are right. So that gives some opportunities for some blue chip airlines. Depends on other airlines I guess what they want to do and if Airbus is willing to go along with Icelandair or want to wait for a KLM/Airfrance order or some other blue chip airlines.

DarthLobster · Tue May 07, 2019 10:08 pm

BoeingGuy wrote:
transswede wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:

It’s supposed to enter into service in 2025.

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

Awfully nice to be able to hide behind unverifiable sources. Until an order shows up the plane is no more real or believable than Bigfoot.

LH748 · Tue May 07, 2019 10:10 pm

Ordering the Max was a mistake in the first place.
They should have gone for the 320 family with its different variations which would have also made it more practical to replace the 752 with 321 in the future and have a homogenous fleet

BoeingGuy · Tue May 07, 2019 10:15 pm

DarthLobster wrote:
BoeingGuy wrote:
transswede wrote:

Which Boeing insider told you that? Because they haven't even launched the type yet... so any prognostications like that are more rumors and wishful thinking.

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

Awfully nice to be able to hide behind unverifiable sources. Until an order shows up the plane is no more real or believable than Bigfoot.

Do you bother to read the media, or even the past few posts? At least two of us have pointed out that 2025 is publicly announced. Some of us are also working on the program.

Awfully nice to be able to hide and downplay stuff when you have no clue what you are talking about.

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