Leeham reported last week that no NMA engine will be ready for 2025 EIS, so anyone still selling that idea is smoking some good stuff.

IMHO a great idea - A321NEO-LR is the perfect fit for them. Maybe even A321-NEO-ULR can make it from KEF to LAX/SFO.

anrec80 wrote:

IMHO a great idea - A321NEO-LR is the perfect fit for them. Maybe even A321-NEO-ULR can make it from KEF to LAX/SFO.

With fish?

Great to see another carrier come to their senses. Hopefully, more changes like this are soon to come.

XLR/LR should work well for them.

IWMBH wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

But time to face reality, even if they make it the youngest 757 will be 20 years old. And the Icelandair fleet will be 30 years old.
That is old already, and with a bit of delay most 757 will have long been retired by then.

If they needed a replacement so soon, why are so Y2K/Shitney Smears era (under 20) low time 752's being converted to freighters or stored?



You don't see any 738's, 772ER's, A330's, or A320's from that era being retired.

If they do cancel their MAX order would it be penalty-free?.The A321Neo and XLR version may not be perfect 757 replacements but come pretty close capacity and range-wise, not cargo ok...The A320N would help them with thinner routes and frequency..PAL flies its 321neo on MNL-SYD,8h flight!..Eventually they will have to replace their 767s too..Could they revisit the 787 order?Or should they go for A330neo?..In the meantime as others suggested,if LH takes over Condor/TCX ,the 753s are misfits in the whole Airbus LH/EW fleet, so maybe FI would be interested in getting them for a few years?Admittedly though, there are a lot of them,11, and FI doesnt need that much extra capacity,considering they have mostly the smaller 752s

SASViking wrote:

dc855 wrote:

The key point is that Icelandair will not be needing any "combos" of different airplanes if they go for the A321 (including the LR and XLR). That single type can fulfill every one of their requirements with the added bonus of more simplicity and cost savings that only having one airplane type brings.

No doubt that the A321's are great planes, but they can't fulfill every requirement that FI have. They need something bigger, such as the A330Neo or 787 too. They need them for slot restricted airports such as LHR and AMS and for the larger cargo capacity on some routes.

I am not sure that losing seats and cargo to a couple of airports outweighs the benefits of having a single fleet type. I also think that those two airplanes you mention are both a bit too big for Icelandair, especially in the winter months. Wow is an excellent cautionary tale. They brought in the A330 which was a massive mistake that played a big part in their downfall.

Oh no I hope this isn't true...

dc855 wrote:

SASViking wrote:

dc855 wrote:

The key point is that Icelandair will not be needing any "combos" of different airplanes if they go for the A321 (including the LR and XLR). That single type can fulfill every one of their requirements with the added bonus of more simplicity and cost savings that only having one airplane type brings.

No doubt that the A321's are great planes, but they can't fulfill every requirement that FI have. They need something bigger, such as the A330Neo or 787 too. They need them for slot restricted airports such as LHR and AMS and for the larger cargo capacity on some routes.

I am not sure that losing seats and cargo to a couple of airports outweighs the benefits of having a single fleet type. I also think that those two airplanes you mention are both a bit too big for Icelandair, especially in the winter months. Wow is an excellent cautionary tale. They brought in the A330 which was a massive mistake that played a big part in their downfall.

They still need the added cargo capacity that the 767 offer compared to the 757 in the winter months. Actually Iceland import more stuff duing winter months (October-March) than they do during the summer. Also looking at the numbers for 2018, the load factor vs. offered seating capacity is not bad at all during the winter. So their current 767's are not too big during winter, and the only logical replacements for their 767s are A330Ceo's (used, that they can get cheaply), new A330Neo's or 787's.

Link for the passenger and cargo statistics for 2018: https://www.isavia.is/en/corporate/abou ... nd-figures

I can totally see Icelandair going for second-hand B772 or A330. With WOW out of the day, they should be less challenged to fill the planes with pax. And as other folks have stated, cargo is a big deal for Iceland, being an island.

bennett123 wrote:

Their B757 currently average 23 years old. Can they wait until 2025.

A 757 can certainly operate for 30 years. 75% of 30 year old 757s (airplanes built in 1989) are currently still flying. Icelandair has a number of 757s less than 20 years old. They can fly to the late 2020s with their 757 fleet if they maintain them. There are also hundreds of 757 freighters that will be flying into the 2030s, so parts will be around for a long time.

VS11 wrote:

I can totally see Icelandair going for second-hand B772 or A330. With WOW out of the day, they should be less challenged to fill the planes with pax. And as other folks have stated, cargo is a big deal for Iceland, being an island.

Why would they want to replace a 20 year old 752 with a 20 year old 772?

1989worstyear wrote:

VS11 wrote:

I can totally see Icelandair going for second-hand B772 or A330. With WOW out of the day, they should be less challenged to fill the planes with pax. And as other folks have stated, cargo is a big deal for Iceland, being an island.

Why would they want to replace a 20 year old 752 with a 20 year old 772?

Ok, fine. 777-200ER, those are younger.

VS11 wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

VS11 wrote:

I can totally see Icelandair going for second-hand B772 or A330. With WOW out of the day, they should be less challenged to fill the planes with pax. And as other folks have stated, cargo is a big deal for Iceland, being an island.

Why would they want to replace a 20 year old 752 with a 20 year old 772?

Ok, fine. 777-200ER, those are younger.

The 200ER is a '96 plane. The LR is certainly younger but might be too much range for FI

1989worstyear wrote:

VS11 wrote:

1989worstyear wrote:

Why would they want to replace a 20 year old 752 with a 20 year old 772?

Ok, fine. 777-200ER, those are younger.

The 200ER is a '96 plane. The LR is certainly younger but might be too much range for FI

Maybe FI wants to start carrying fish KEF-SYD. The 777-200LR would be the perfect plane for that.

Wow... Icelandair is going full Sansa Stark on Boeing.

Game of Planes... The Fishhaulers Remember...

Just a reminder for all users to keep your posts on topic. Additionally keep the Airbus vs Boeing flamebait out of the discussion

1989worstyear wrote:

You don't see any 738's, 772ER's, A330's, or A320's from that era being retired.

Actually, you do. Few A320s & 738s, rather 736s and A318s, but nevertheless.

I said before I and I still think that this is heavy pressure being applied on Boeing about NMA.

The A330 is too much airplane, and an all-A321 fleet would leave revenue on the table in some markets (although it would be very flexible). If the A321 were enough to optimize revenue, we would never have seen FI messing around with 763s, both its own and chartered frames.

I think FI's preferred outcome would probably be a MAX + 797 fleet. But the 757s will continue to become more and more of an economic challenge, and at some level of 797 delay, the all-A321 option (or maybe A321 plus some holdover 767 for the moment) will become more attractive.

And then there is the fact that a stretched variant of the A321XLR would work better for FI than just about anyone else. If Airbus launches an A322 (which I don't expect) then all bets are off.

Chemist wrote:

anrec80 wrote:

IMHO a great idea - A321NEO-LR is the perfect fit for them. Maybe even A321-NEO-ULR can make it from KEF to LAX/SFO.

With fish?

they'll get special gliding trailers for the fish. ( in conjunction with some A319Z tow planes to get them aloft

qf789 wrote:

Additionally keep the Airbus vs Boeing flamebait out of the discussion

Bait seems on-topic, given the fish

Anyway, the A321 would be a great fit for IcelandAir, so definitely worth serious consideration. Doesn't mean MAX wouldn't work also, but they'd be crazy to not consider their options. Commercial conditions and availability will also be taken into account.

And I also agree with those who stated the NMA is kind of out of the this round; it is getting late for IcelandAir to use NMA for their upcoming replacement cycle.

Could this also have been a reasoning as to why FI were interested in purchasing WOW AIR with immediate access to an all Airbus fleet?

OMAA

SASViking wrote:

dc855 wrote:

SASViking wrote:

No doubt that the A321's are great planes, but they can't fulfill every requirement that FI have. They need something bigger, such as the A330Neo or 787 too. They need them for slot restricted airports such as LHR and AMS and for the larger cargo capacity on some routes.

I am not sure that losing seats and cargo to a couple of airports outweighs the benefits of having a single fleet type. I also think that those two airplanes you mention are both a bit too big for Icelandair, especially in the winter months. Wow is an excellent cautionary tale. They brought in the A330 which was a massive mistake that played a big part in their downfall.

They still need the added cargo capacity that the 767 offer compared to the 757 in the winter months. Actually Iceland import more stuff duing winter months (October-March) than they do during the summer. Also looking at the numbers for 2018, the load factor vs. offered seating capacity is not bad at all during the winter. So their current 767's are not too big during winter, and the only logical replacements for their 767s are A330Ceo's (used, that they can get cheaply), new A330Neo's or 787's.

Link for the passenger and cargo statistics for 2018: https://www.isavia.is/en/corporate/abou ... nd-figures

Icelandair reported a pretty heavy loss this first quarter which in itself is nothing new. I doubt that adding plane types that are quite a bit bigger than the 767 would help with that. The 767 also has the benefit of the same type rating as the 757 which is something that the 787 or A330 wouldn't do. I also ask myself if Icelandair could bring in more dedicated cargo planes to make up for the shortfall in cargo capacity. For me the wisest choice is to simplify down to a single low cast plane. The TATL competition is only going to increase as more airlines such as Jetblue start using NEOLR's to fly over the pond. Flying expensive half full 300 pax planes is a certain path to financial trouble IMHO.

An all Airbus fleet for FI would look amazing! I could see them utilising the A321XLR, A320 NEO on smaller routes, and either the A330-800 or used A330-200s on the heavy routes. It could also allow for charters or regular flights to Asia..there is a huge traffic demand between Iceland and Japan, Hong Kong etc. (but not Delhi, seemingly)

As for the Max fleet and other Boeings, they can be sideshifted to the TACV deal or into the leasing market.

BoeingGuy wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

I am an insider. That’s who told me that.

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

Boeing took 6 years to reengine the 737, and it turned out full of faults. The 737-10 variant alone will take 4 years. Are you seriously suggesting they could do a clean-sheet design in 6 years?!?

And unless it is launched at Paris Air show, 2025 is not doable as numerous other sources posted including leeham.

OMAAbound wrote:

Could this also have been a reasoning as to why FI were interested in purchasing WOW AIR with immediate access to an all Airbus fleet?

OMAA

No. Those aircraft were all leased, FI could just as well go to the leasing market if it was the aircraft that sparked their interest. No reason to take on tons of debt and a burning carcass of a company just to gain access to a small number of A321CEO aircraft (they only had 3 NEOs).

In reality, FI weren't really interested in buying WOW. It was WOW that was interested in FI (or anyone else) buying them, and in both November and March it was WOW that approached FI due to their situation becoming untenable, not the other way around. In both cases FI concluded it wasn't worth the risk and enormous debt.

VSMUT wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

Boeing took 6 years to reengine the 737, and it turned out full of faults. The 737-10 variant alone will take 4 years. Are you seriously suggesting they could do a clean-sheet design in 6 years?!?

He told you he knows. He's an insider who cannot reveal his sources, cannot provide any hard information, can't do none of that... But he knows. How dare you doubt him?

/s

Negotiating tactic - particularly with the MAX compo and possible new orders being rolled into some very favourable terms.

Would be shocked if they switch tack from Boeing.

dc855 wrote:

I also ask myself if Icelandair could bring in more dedicated cargo planes to make up for the shortfall in cargo capacity.

How can they go to a single type or even an all-Airbus fleet given their cargo division? An A330F is too much aircraft for their needs. I don't see the 757Fs going anywhere anytime soon.

I have to wonder if Airbus approached FI (including VR) and not the other way around. They know that FI needs a plane that can reach the west coast of the USA without restriction in northern winter (similar to a Lufthansa spec of wanting to reach JFK from anywhere in Germany on a narrow-body), and may also be courting B6 and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, along with Lion Air Group and IndiGo in Asia. This would definitely put a dent in the B788 for airlines not needing its range.

Ultimately, I see the MAX having a place in the FI fleet for shorter haul, but the A321XLR would fit in where there is higher capacity needed or where the range is needed (particularly to SFO).

VSMUT wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

IWMBH wrote:

So you're spreading corporate on an online open forum? Im sceptical.
But, don't you think that Boeing is a little late with the NMA? Most airlines need replacements now, not in 10 years.

Last time I did the math, 2025 is in six years, not 10. As another poster pointed out, this is publicly released knowledge.

Boeing took 6 years to reengine the 737, and it turned out full of faults. The 737-10 variant alone will take 4 years. Are you seriously suggesting they could do a clean-sheet design in 6 years?!?

I'm sure Boeing could design and deliver the NMA in 2025 if it really came down to it. If Boeing is as close to launching the NMA as depicted in the media, then the design should already be well underway. But the more important issue is, sure, EIS is in 2025, but how long does the ramp up take? How many years after 2025 can FI build up a viable fleet of NMAs to replace the 757s? I'm for sure willing to bet that FI will get a trickle of NMAs (possibly low single digits) for the first couple of years, accounting for the slow ramp-up and delivering to other NMA customers as well. So to replace the 27-strong 757 fleet would take at least 5 years. Can the last 757s soldier on till 2030? This scenario is if everything goes right. What if EIS is delayed to 2027? Can FI wait till 2032 to replace its last 757s?

The point is also that Airbus could deliver FI A321neo/LR/XLRs well before 2025 in significant numbers, even with the substantial backlog -- through juggling orders, removal of ghost orders etc. For that matter, so could Boeing, if FI decided to stick with and order more 737MAXes, which is also an option per the FlightGlobal article. I'm not sure waiting for the NMA, despite its 2025 EIS, is a sound decision for FI.

On a cargo note, maybe this is a possibility for routes that cannot justify a widebody pax service?

https://cargofacts.com/vallair-set-to-o ... n-1q-2020/

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have to wonder if Airbus approached FI (including VR) and not the other way around. They know that FI needs a plane that can reach the west coast of the USA without restriction in northern winter (similar to a Lufthansa spec of wanting to reach JFK from anywhere in Germany on a narrow-body), and may also be courting B6 and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, along with Lion Air Group and IndiGo in Asia. This would definitely put a dent in the B788 for airlines not needing its range.

Ultimately, I see the MAX having a place in the FI fleet for shorter haul, but the A321XLR would fit in where there is higher capacity needed or where the range is needed (particularly to SFO).

All larger airlines are constantly in contact with both of the big manufacturers so it was probably a bit of both. It is known in Icelandic aviation circles that FI was very close to ordering Airbus back in 2013 before ultimately going with the MAX, so they've probably stayed in contact since then especially given the new developments when it comes to the LR/XLR.

airbazar wrote:

WIederling wrote:

Chemist wrote:

With fish?

they'll get special gliding trailers for the fish. ( in conjunction with some A319Z tow planes to get them aloft

I believe that's called a cargo fleet.
If cargo is so important for them maybe it's time they start considering a dedicated cargo fleet. Convert some 752's to freighters and go single type on the pax fleet. Done, problem solved

They do have a fleet of 2 75Fs that serve EMA, LGG and JFK. However, they used to have two more and several more destinations so it seems the demand for dedicated cargo services has actually decreased. The fact is most of FI's destinations don't have the bulk needed to justify a full freighter version, but on the other hand they have a steady demand of very valuable cargo in smaller portions and it would be a real shame for FI to let that constant revenue stream go to waste.

1989worstyear wrote:

If they needed a replacement so soon, why are so Y2K/Shitney Smears era (under 20) low time 752's being converted to freighters or stored?



You don't see any 738's, 772ER's, A330's, or A320's from that era being retired.

Actually you do see a lot of 25 year old A320s retired. More 25 year old 757s are flying than 25 year old A320s

20%: 13 of the 66 757s built in 1994 are either written off, stored or scrapped.

44%: 18 of the 41 A320s built in 1994 are either written off, stored or scrapped.

The 757 is quite a robust airplane with a long useable life. Statistics show it lasts longer in service than the A320, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Icelandair continues flying them for 10 more years.

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have to wonder if Airbus approached FI (including VR) and not the other way around. They know that FI needs a plane that can reach the west coast of the USA without restriction in northern winter (similar to a Lufthansa spec of wanting to reach JFK from anywhere in Germany on a narrow-body), and may also be courting B6 and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, along with Lion Air Group and IndiGo in Asia. This would definitely put a dent in the B788 for airlines not needing its range.

Ultimately, I see the MAX having a place in the FI fleet for shorter haul, but the A321XLR would fit in where there is higher capacity needed or where the range is needed (particularly to SFO).

I am still surprised that Boeing 787 isnt in the picture more in this discussion. To strech the A321XLR to the US west coast does not leave a lot of room for payload for cargo (fish), while using a 788 with its higher payload capability as well as cargo volume could add extra value for Icelandair. Fuel can be traded for extra cargo with a 788 as well.
Iceland to LAX and SFO is a mission where Airbus has a gap in its lineup.

The A321 NEO (LR and XLR) would be a great fit for FI. Hope it will happen.
Cheers, Alex

Asiaflyer wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have to wonder if Airbus approached FI (including VR) and not the other way around. They know that FI needs a plane that can reach the west coast of the USA without restriction in northern winter (similar to a Lufthansa spec of wanting to reach JFK from anywhere in Germany on a narrow-body), and may also be courting B6 and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, along with Lion Air Group and IndiGo in Asia. This would definitely put a dent in the B788 for airlines not needing its range.

Ultimately, I see the MAX having a place in the FI fleet for shorter haul, but the A321XLR would fit in where there is higher capacity needed or where the range is needed (particularly to SFO).

I am still surprised that Boeing 787 isnt in the picture more in this discussion. To strech the A321XLR to the US west coast does not leave a lot of room for payload for cargo (fish), while using a 788 with its higher payload capability as well as cargo volume could add extra value for Icelandair. Fuel can be traded for extra cargo with a 788 as well.
Iceland to LAX and SFO is a mission where Airbus has a gap in its lineup.

A330?

Amiga500 wrote:

Negotiating tactic - particularly with the MAX compo and possible new orders being rolled into some very favourable terms.

Would be shocked if they switch tack from Boeing.

That would be my guess too. The A321NEO is a good enough airplane, but it’s isn’t a direct 757 replacement. I suspect that Icelandair would like to see Boeing commit to the NMA. Maybe they could even cut a favourable deal as launch customer?

The 757s have life in them yet, but given the time it takes to develop a clean-sheet design, FI really needs Boeing to start moving on the NMA now if they’re going to commit to it.

Pretty heavy statement considering they have zero cash for any such scenarios. They are not in much better shape than 'WOW' Air and if anything, they may get their hands on some of their aircraft on wet-lease to try them out.

SRQKEF wrote:

Asiaflyer wrote:

aemoreira1981 wrote:

I have to wonder if Airbus approached FI (including VR) and not the other way around. They know that FI needs a plane that can reach the west coast of the USA without restriction in northern winter (similar to a Lufthansa spec of wanting to reach JFK from anywhere in Germany on a narrow-body), and may also be courting B6 and the Lufthansa Group in Europe, along with Lion Air Group and IndiGo in Asia. This would definitely put a dent in the B788 for airlines not needing its range.

Ultimately, I see the MAX having a place in the FI fleet for shorter haul, but the A321XLR would fit in where there is higher capacity needed or where the range is needed (particularly to SFO).

I am still surprised that Boeing 787 isnt in the picture more in this discussion. To strech the A321XLR to the US west coast does not leave a lot of room for payload for cargo (fish), while using a 788 with its higher payload capability as well as cargo volume could add extra value for Icelandair. Fuel can be traded for extra cargo with a 788 as well.
Iceland to LAX and SFO is a mission where Airbus has a gap in its lineup.

A330?

Too big, heavy and inefficient.
Its not without reason the A330 orderbook is drying up.

terrificturk wrote:

Pretty heavy statement considering they have zero cash for any such scenarios. They are not in much better shape than 'WOW' Air and if anything, they may get their hands on some of their aircraft on wet-lease to try them out.

Bad couple of years? Sure. Similar shape to WOW, zero cash? Good one!

Asiaflyer wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Asiaflyer wrote:

I am still surprised that Boeing 787 isnt in the picture more in this discussion. To strech the A321XLR to the US west coast does not leave a lot of room for payload for cargo (fish), while using a 788 with its higher payload capability as well as cargo volume could add extra value for Icelandair. Fuel can be traded for extra cargo with a 788 as well.
Iceland to LAX and SFO is a mission where Airbus has a gap in its lineup.

A330?

Too big, heavy and inefficient.
Its not without reason the A330 orderbook is drying up.

It could very well be, I was just pointing out that Airbus has an aircraft in its lineup that theoretically fills that gap.

Given that FI's plan is to grow to a fleet of 50 aircraft by 2025, that means there should be economics of scale to go with a mixed fleet so I agree that might very well be the plan going forward. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the FI fleet in 2025-2030 be comprised of A320 series on the smaller side and used 787s on the larger side. I can't quite see them ordering brand-new 787s with all that cash expenditure given their history of buying used, and I think there might be some very good deals out there on 2015ish build 787s around the 2025 range similar to the ex-NZ 767s FI now operates.

blueflyer wrote:

dc855 wrote:

I also ask myself if Icelandair could bring in more dedicated cargo planes to make up for the shortfall in cargo capacity.

How can they go to a single type or even an all-Airbus fleet given their cargo division? An A330F is too much aircraft for their needs. I don't see the 757Fs going anywhere anytime soon.

A32xP2F for cargo, A32x for pax. Problem solved.

Aren't TF-SKY and TF-DTR, the both A 321neo from WOW still Standing around at KEF? Icelandair could use them now for a while and test the usability....

I am surprised no-one offered them to use an A321NEOxlr-combi!

YouGeeElWhy wrote:

Great to see another carrier come to their senses. Hopefully, more changes like this are soon to come.

XLR/LR should work well for them.

And what "sense" is that?

AirbusOnly wrote:

Aren't TF-SKY and TF-DTR, the both A 321neo from WOW still Standing around at KEF? Icelandair could use them now for a while and test the usability....

Neither of them are in KEF, I believe both have found new operators. Only aircraft in WOW c/s still standing in KEF is A321ceo TF-GPA due to a stupid dispute between Isavia and ALC, the owner of the aircraft.