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ramprat74
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:56 pm

United feeds a lot of passengers to ET out of PDX and they fork out tons of extra bag fee charges every flight. The usual is 5 passengers = 30 bags on our flights. I would like to find out how many total bags their ORD/IAD-ADD flights depart with?
 
berari
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:54 pm

behramjee wrote:
berari wrote:
iadadd wrote:
Ethiopian is so adamant on serving IAH. Clearly, their last 2 attempts have failed, and this 20 hour wait on the ground doesn't seem much better either. I wouldn't be surprised to see it cancelled in a few weeks


The last two attempts (at the planning stage) failed because of the ill timed schedules that they had presented: no feed existed from their hub at LFW. This new schedule follows the proven approach they have today for flights to Newark. IAH has the traffic ET needs to make this flight successful, with a large Nigerian and West African diaspora in the region, oil traffic and an excellent UA hub to work with. If anything, for ET to start a new USA service, IAH is the logical choice.

UA served LOS from IAH and then pulled out citing poor financial performance. What UA didn't have is not only the feed that ET will have out of LFW from west and central African cities, but also the low cost structure that keeps ET at an advantage.


Berari...I have written this many times on ET IAH aspirations but you do not seem to be willing to accept reality. This new flight schedule to IAH via LFW (the 3rd attempt to launch) though offering very good connections in both directions to West Africa will not be successful. As previously stated, the LOS-IAH market segment is the largest i.e. 60,000 pax annually but the demand to other cities in West Africa combined is less than half of LOS-IAH by itself!

The demand from ACC to IAH is less than 8,000 passengers annually and already ASKY's LOS-LFW flight is over 70% full daily year round so at the very most LOS can feed 40-50 pax per flight to IAH via LFW which is not even 20% of the available on board capacity. Other oil city demand from WA to IAH is ABV 10,000, DLA 3,000, PNR 1,200, BZV 1,000 and LBV 1,000.

The only realistic way of making ET IAH flights a success is to operate them via LOS with 5th freedom traffic rights.


Only time will tell Behramjee.

While I don't disagree that the best option would be a fifth freedom via LOS for passengers terminating at IAH, such rights don't seem to be available to ET, making the LFW route being the next best option. IAH opens up these same west and central African cities to further connections.
 
AF022
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:00 am

berari wrote:
behramjee wrote:
berari wrote:

The last two attempts (at the planning stage) failed because of the ill timed schedules that they had presented: no feed existed from their hub at LFW. This new schedule follows the proven approach they have today for flights to Newark. IAH has the traffic ET needs to make this flight successful, with a large Nigerian and West African diaspora in the region, oil traffic and an excellent UA hub to work with. If anything, for ET to start a new USA service, IAH is the logical choice.

UA served LOS from IAH and then pulled out citing poor financial performance. What UA didn't have is not only the feed that ET will have out of LFW from west and central African cities, but also the low cost structure that keeps ET at an advantage.


Berari...I have written this many times on ET IAH aspirations but you do not seem to be willing to accept reality. This new flight schedule to IAH via LFW (the 3rd attempt to launch) though offering very good connections in both directions to West Africa will not be successful. As previously stated, the LOS-IAH market segment is the largest i.e. 60,000 pax annually but the demand to other cities in West Africa combined is less than half of LOS-IAH by itself!

The demand from ACC to IAH is less than 8,000 passengers annually and already ASKY's LOS-LFW flight is over 70% full daily year round so at the very most LOS can feed 40-50 pax per flight to IAH via LFW which is not even 20% of the available on board capacity. Other oil city demand from WA to IAH is ABV 10,000, DLA 3,000, PNR 1,200, BZV 1,000 and LBV 1,000.

The only realistic way of making ET IAH flights a success is to operate them via LOS with 5th freedom traffic rights.


Only time will tell Behramjee.

While I don't disagree that the best option would be a fifth freedom via LOS for passengers terminating at IAH, such rights don't seem to be available to ET, making the LFW route being the next best option. IAH opens up these same west and central African cities to further connections.


There are likely more opportunities to make connectivity at LFW. I tried making a connection at LOS once, hopeless, the airport wasn't set up that way. Maybe things have changed I would think a passenger traveling from IAH to another city in West Africa is going to avoid ET if the connection had to be in LOS.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:57 pm

EK216 wrote:
hohd wrote:
tkoenig95 wrote:
Great to see attempt number 3! Is there possible connection opportunity past Houston?


Yes there are connection opportunities, but not with UA which is the least cooperative Star alliance member. It will never give any special rate to Ethiopian, even though in this case they are not even a competitor. ET will have better luck with AA or DL or some other airline at IAH.


If ET will have better connections with AA, should they have opted for DFW instead? Or are they really trying to bridge VFR and oil from specifically from Houston to West Africa and Ethiopia? Is the demand that strong?


DFW would be a nonstarter because not only are AA/ET not partners but pretty much all the traffic that exists between DFW and Africa is VFR. There is a huge business component to West Africa from Houston.

As for skepticism on this route, I have to admit I share some of it. The long time on the ground at IAH is somewhat concerning. If it werent for that, I would be quite confident in it. That said I think this is the way to go. LFW-LOS is a very short flight and connections can be maximized. Also, there is a huge reluctance to make connections at LOS.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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B747-437B
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:59 am

Some comments :

1) ET always plays the long game when it comes to route development. They are perfectly happy to take short term losses on a route, so long as there is a positive trend on the route. They also aren't too proud to pull the plug if a route doesn't work to expectations. Los Angeles is a good example of this.

2) Lome as a hub is fairly rudimentary from a passenger experience perspective. However, the connectivity offered there within the constraints of the single daily "bank" is the best in the region by far. ASKY has traded away aircraft utility in exchange for hub connectivity. Any feed into Lome therefore MUST feed into this bank, and the realigned schedule from ET eventually does so. The best physical facility for transit in the region is Accra's new Terminal 3 (but the connectivity is largely to Anglophone markets only), and the only other airport in the same league is Abidjan (but Air Cote D'Ivoire can be a train-smash when it comes to interlining, as ET has discovered to their detriment with the under-performing ABJ-JFK flights and the "delayed" launch of ABJ-IAD).

3) Lagos may have the largest O&D market to Houston, but regional connectivity there is poor. Certainly, there are flights from Lagos to most major destinations, but these are spread across a wide variety of airlines and departure times. This is less attractive than somewhere like Lome where everywhere is serviced within a 2 hour window and on a single airline for the most part. Simply put, Lagos is not a regional "hub" while Lome, Accra and Abidjan are.

4) Houston via Lome is designed to cater to the various oil markets in the West African region. Any VFR traffic, or traffic behind/beyond Addis, is a bonus. Don't underestimate the volume of oil traffic from Houston already using the Lome hub via the Newark flight. MIDT, PAXIS and other analytics do not fully capture all the traffic in the region as so many people fly on multiple tickets, so the full story is not always represented there.

5) ET will struggle to break into the US origin oil traffic market, especially among the bigger players. Most of the major markets that can be served from Houston via Lome, are already served 1-stop by Air France via Paris, and AF is well known for being generous with its perks to win the oil industry contracts. Turkish is also making a push for a lot of these with their African expansion. That is not to say ET won't get a share of the pie (they already have some of this through the EWR-LFW flight), but that they will have to fight very hard for more.

6) ET can probably get 5th freedom rights from Lagos to the USA, but they probably don't want it right now. They have enough capacity challenges feeding Lagos demand to/from the Addis hub with a single daily flight already without having to split that load with US traffic. Furthermore, forex repatriation challenges in Nigeria mean that any flight through there sometimes have to be subsidized from cashflows generated elsewhere. I expect to see ET add a second daily flight from Addis in the afternoon/night banks to Lagos and Accra using smaller gauge sometime during the W19 schedule period, at which time they may be able to free up some of their capacity on the daytime flights for onward traffic.
 
berari
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:03 am

Sensical thoughts B747-437B which I also align with. ET has invested/committed enough at LFW for such expansion to take place. With existing challenges of operating into Nigeria (right restrictions, questionable climate - recall the news articles when news surfaced that ET was interested in creating a domestic airline, repatriation of funds,) ET is best suited to continue expansion via LFW.

ET is known to go into territory that pundits never dreamed of (one that baffled me was CTU which it now intends to increase to 10x per week!) and pull out quickly where it deems unfavourable.

I have been hopeful about further frequencies into West Africa using the afternoon bank, returning to ADD the next morning. That bank is currently fed by CAN, and can potentially be expanded with additional Chinese cities with the recently announced expansion plans to BJS, PVG and CTU. These expansions will require additional aircraft, and if the current production rates and what's in the queue remains, we see 4 B789s and 2 A359s being delivered within the next 6-12 months.

I was not aware of challenges that ET has at ABJ. What sort of commitment does the agreement with Air Cote d'Ivoire come with? Can they revert back to LFW? What are the specific interlining challenges they have?
 
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B747-437B
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 11:23 am

berari wrote:
I was not aware of challenges that ET has at ABJ. What sort of commitment does the agreement with Air Cote d'Ivoire come with? Can they revert back to LFW? What are the specific interlining challenges they have?


I don't know the specifics of ET's challenges there first hand, but as you are aware I have my own experiences in the region so I can probably engage in some fairly educated speculation.

ET probably went into Abidjan more as a defensive measure to prevent someone else going to North America from there (SAA had mild interest before making the very firm commitment to the Accra hub, and Rwandair has flirted with it as well). On paper, the market is very promising but there are non-market forces in play there that tend to skew the traffic towards certain players at the expense of others who may be less of the flavour du jour. There is an election coming up soon as well, so these forces are probably even more skewed in 2019 than they were in 2017 or so. This is not to ET's advantage.

The biggest challenge one has when interlining with HF is that they are not ICH members. All clearances and settlement has to be done offline. Furthermore, the recently retimed HF hub banks don't align with the Addis hub as well as the KP bank does in Lome. As a result, there has to be a tradeoff between either feeding the Addis hub banks, or feeding the Abidjan bank. The ABJ-IAD flights were set up in part to try and capture anglophone VFR feed to the Washington metro area - think Accra, Freetown, Monrovia, etc... However, HF had their own issues that required them to suspend FNA, and in the meanwhile the success of the AW-SA partnership down the road in Accra from these same markets made the product uncompetitive from a frequency, schedule and PaxEx basis before it even launched (AWA went from zero to daily in FNA in just over a year, mainly thanks to the solid feed at Accra, partly from SA's IAD flight). They wisely pulled the plug sooner rather than later.
 
evanb
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:58 pm

B747-437B wrote:
ET probably went into Abidjan more as a defensive measure to prevent someone else going to North America from there (SAA had mild interest before making the very firm commitment to the Accra hub, and Rwandair has flirted with it as well). On paper, the market is very promising but there are non-market forces in play there that tend to skew the traffic towards certain players at the expense of others who may be less of the flavour du jour. There is an election coming up soon as well, so these forces are probably even more skewed in 2019 than they were in 2017 or so. This is not to ET's advantage.


The SAA choice was quite simple. ACC has a much bigger ex-US demand and sales market than ABJ, greater connectivity from AW and also a larger market to/from JNB. They certainly looked at ABJ but likely made a smart choice to increase ACC capacity instead.

There were certainly representations made by the powers that be in ABJ to SAA but they came to nothing.
 
Croden
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:08 pm

Ethiopian posted yesterday on Facebook that the route will start in December
 
Freshside3
Posts: 1591
Joined: Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:11 am

Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:36 am

behramjee wrote:
berari wrote:
iadadd wrote:
Ethiopian is so adamant on serving IAH. Clearly, their last 2 attempts have failed, and this 20 hour wait on the ground doesn't seem much better either. I wouldn't be surprised to see it cancelled in a few weeks


The last two attempts (at the planning stage) failed because of the ill timed schedules that they had presented: no feed existed from their hub at LFW. This new schedule follows the proven approach they have today for flights to Newark. IAH has the traffic ET needs to make this flight successful, with a large Nigerian and West African diaspora in the region, oil traffic and an excellent UA hub to work with. If anything, for ET to start a new USA service, IAH is the logical choice.

UA served LOS from IAH and then pulled out citing poor financial performance. What UA didn't have is not only the feed that ET will have out of LFW from west and central African cities, but also the low cost structure that keeps ET at an advantage.


Berari...I have written this many times on ET IAH aspirations but you do not seem to be willing to accept reality. This new flight schedule to IAH via LFW (the 3rd attempt to launch) though offering very good connections in both directions to West Africa will not be successful. As previously stated, the LOS-IAH market segment is the largest i.e. 60,000 pax annually but the demand to other cities in West Africa combined is less than half of LOS-IAH by itself!

The demand from ACC to IAH is less than 8,000 passengers annually and already ASKY's LOS-LFW flight is over 70% full daily year round so at the very most LOS can feed 40-50 pax per flight to IAH via LFW which is not even 20% of the available on board capacity. Other oil city demand from WA to IAH is ABV 10,000, DLA 3,000, PNR 1,200, BZV 1,000 and LBV 1,000.

The only realistic way of making ET IAH flights a success is to operate them via LOS with 5th freedom traffic rights.

Definitely not enough local traffic IAH-ADD, for sure. They have to have some other stop involved to make it happen. And LOS makes logical sense.
 
Freshside3
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Thu Sep 26, 2019 4:44 am

behramjee wrote:
Mboyle1988 wrote:
Why don’t they fly nonstop to ADD?


Block time is 16:30 for nonstop hence can’t be operated using any of the aircraft in ETs fleet when departing out of ADD.

No one has mentioned this as yet but I would like to know what ET is going to do with this 1 freed up B788 not going to IAH anymore during the peak summer season? Are they increasing flights to somewhere else?

The recently upsized the ADD-DME from a 737 to a 788, and making it a one-stop via ATH. Starts, on 14 December, if I recall correctly.
 
berari
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Re: Ethiopian Cuts Addis Ababa-Lome-Houston Before It Starts?

Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:42 am

LAXdude1023 wrote:
As for skepticism on this route, I have to admit I share some of it. The long time on the ground at IAH is somewhat concerning. If it werent for that, I would be quite confident in it. That said I think this is the way to go. LFW-LOS is a very short flight and connections can be maximized. Also, there is a huge reluctance to make connections at LOS.


Some time in 2018 Ethiopian signed an agreement with ACC Aviation Group to use Ethiopian aircraft that are on long layovers in Europe for ad hoc charter services. This agreement has now been expanded to include London Heathrow, Manchester, Madrid, Frankfurt, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Moscow Domodedovo, Houston, Bangkok, Hong Kong and Chengdu.

So here's some charter opportunities from Houston during the long layovers.

https://www.accaviation.com/acc-expands ... rtnership/

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