dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Tue May 14, 2019 6:02 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120
 
WorldFlier
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Tue May 14, 2019 7:06 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120



I know you probably did not mean to come off this way, but there's more to "West and North" than the USA and LHR.

In addition, LHR is a backtrack for all of Europe-India except Norther England and Ireland.

I'm not a fan of any of the ME carriers for political reasons (I refuse to support any country or business with my money that treats people as they do, if I can help it - next car will be electric), but I can see how they (and specifically Emirates) have a valid business case to exist, especially when considering their "competition" - AI, PIA, etc.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Tue May 14, 2019 7:41 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120



I know you probably did not mean to come off this way, but there's more to "West and North" than the USA and LHR.

In addition, LHR is a backtrack for all of Europe-India except Norther England and Ireland.

I'm not a fan of any of the ME carriers for political reasons (I refuse to support any country or business with my money that treats people as they do, if I can help it - next car will be electric), but I can see how they (and specifically Emirates) have a valid business case to exist, especially when considering their "competition" - AI, PIA, etc.

The napkin math does bring up a valid point, EK doesn't dominate connectivity as they used to.
Now, EK to Europe is 28 EU points (or has it grown) * 10 India =280. But for many (most?) there are alternative connections in AUH, DOH, ISL, ADD, as well as back tracking from FRA.

Premium passengers demand direct and convienient service. I fully expect with 787 or A350 engine PIPs we will see more direct flights to the USA. I expect the A321xLR to start a fragmentation of EU/Asia markets that will increase if the NMA is launched.

Lightsaber
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Wed May 15, 2019 11:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Wed May 15, 2019 11:55 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?

Does EK need the size of aircraft they have? If anything, I expect 777x to replace A380 and 787-10 to replace 77W within EU/most of Asia. I see massive down gauging ahead.

Lightsaber
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Wed May 15, 2019 12:50 pm

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?


It is interesting to try and work out exactly what they're playing at.
    Reduced A380 fleet and A339 & A359 listed in 2019 Annual Report
    The A339/A359/A380 rejig has yet to hit Airbus's books
    787-10 removed from 2019 Annual Report, but was listed in 2018
    Apparently still negotiating with Boeing on the 787 order

I'm struggling to see the need for 110 A339s, A359s and 787-10s, unless EK is looking at a significant downsizing and maybe taking fewer 777X?

It's not dull! :spin:
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 6:52 am

^ Wasn't there a recent bloomburg article suggesting that Emirates wanted more 777X, not less?

As you say, not dull at all. Changing times!
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 7:13 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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scbriml
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 7:34 am

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
^ Wasn't there a recent bloomburg article suggesting that Emirates wanted more 777X, not less?

As you say, not dull at all. Changing times!


There was, but then it went very quiet.

Could be EK just needing to get all its ducks in a row before pulling the trigger.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
musman9853
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 1:29 pm

WorldFlier wrote:
Aquila3 wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
Airbazar..



Which is the exact opposite of what the pre-announcement management briefing detailed, moreover there has been an admission of sorts that the fleet mix has been wrong for some time and that the focus will continue to shift from additional capacity to improving yield.
Expect the acceleration of the A380 leaving EK service based on what I’ve seen today.


Tell me a reason why one should fly Emirates without the A380 (in Y).
Without them EK will be an airline like all the others, and quite an average one, I would say.


Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.

Asia to Africa.

Anywhere in the Middle East, especially where other reputable carriers may not fly.

Pakistan. Do they have an airline?

Emirates isn't going anywhere, but they sure as hell won't have 80 A380s going forward...


there's pia for pakistan but its pretty small and not that good.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
WorldFlier
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 2:15 pm

musman9853 wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Aquila3 wrote:

Tell me a reason why one should fly Emirates without the A380 (in Y).
Without them EK will be an airline like all the others, and quite an average one, I would say.


Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.

Asia to Africa.

Anywhere in the Middle East, especially where other reputable carriers may not fly.

Pakistan. Do they have an airline?

Emirates isn't going anywhere, but they sure as hell won't have 80 A380s going forward...


there's pia for pakistan but its pretty small and not that good.


That was the joke. Emirates is so much better than most carriers in many of the countries (and better than all carriers in some countries) which is why they are so dominant.
 
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Veigar
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 3:11 pm

EK 787s are still being negotiated?
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm

scbriml wrote:
It is interesting to try and work out exactly what they're playing at.
    Reduced A380 fleet and A339 & A359 listed in 2019 Annual Report
    The A339/A359/A380 rejig has yet to hit Airbus's books
    787-10 removed from 2019 Annual Report, but was listed in 2018
    Apparently still negotiating with Boeing on the 787 order

I'm struggling to see the need for 110 A339s, A359s and 787-10s, unless EK is looking at a significant downsizing and maybe taking fewer 777X?

It's not dull! :spin:

Well one has to look at the penalties associated with the cancellation of their A380 order, it is not all about where and how they want to fly, for want of a better term, it can also be about making the best of their current financial situation, pay the penalties of get a/c that you can use within your network.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pm

Something else to consider is Emirates plan to start premium economy classes.

A four-class A350-900 would make sense and probably help long term too.
 
Buffalomatt1027
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Thu May 16, 2019 11:14 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 2:28 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.

Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

Out of curiosity, where exactly do you get that idea from?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Mrakula
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 4:27 am

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


I suppose Tim Clark said opposite

Cheers
 
ME720
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 8:55 am

I guess EK and EY must Be on an edge will the drums of war beating in the Persian Gulf.
Air space will be closed, and with all the US bases in the region, cities in the region might not be spared from missile attacks.
 
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MoKa777
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 9:00 am

ME720 wrote:
I guess EK and EY must Be on an edge will the drums of war beating in the Persian Gulf.
Air space will be closed, and with all the US bases in the region, cities in the region might not be spared from missile attacks.


I sincerely hope this does not happen.
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dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 12:46 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


Every frame has its own break-even load factor(BELF). Above BELF you make a profit on that route. A380 need not be 100% full to make a profit.

Without offering heavy discounts or filling premium cabins with free upgrades, of the 365 days in a year,

A 777 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than an A380.
A 787 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than a 777

Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.
 
Arion640
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 1:02 pm

Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


An A380 needs to be 100% full to make a profit. What rubbish. Depends on the fares and yield.
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worldranger
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 1:21 pm

...and amortization cost
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 5:34 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


Every frame has its own break-even load factor(BELF). Above BELF you make a profit on that route. A380 need not be 100% full to make a profit.

Without offering heavy discounts or filling premium cabins with free upgrades, of the 365 days in a year,

A 777 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than an A380.
A 787 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than a 777

Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.

You make a good point. However, cost per equivalent seat also plays a role.
779 will have the lowest cost.
Then A35K
Then 787-10 (short missions <5000nm even better).
Then A359/789 (mission dependent which is cheaper).
A388
788
A339
A338
77W/A333 (again, mission dependent, can be better than A338 and A388, depending on fuel prices).
A332

So your simplified assumptions work unless the
Seats*(Sales per- cost per) comes out ahead.

There will always be trunk routes that fill enough of the larger planes, but subfleets need to be 17 to 20 minimum for operation economics.

Direct routes always receive a fare premium. So small planes with range benefit. Hence A321xLR and 797. Let's not forget you can only sell on routes one is servicing.

Once upon a time, it was very typical to stop twice (bridge hubbing), often for primary cities far apart. Then only bridge hubbing for secondary cities. Now it is only common for secondary city to secondary city. Tertiary cities will always have it tougher and need connections to mega hubs to thrive, such as DXB.

Unfortunately, at the high yield times, DXB is full. Unfortunately, new entrants are diluting connection yield.

New smaller planes are allowing the competition to expand. I've predicted connecting yield will continue to drop. EK must adapt to this reality.

Lightsaber
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747megatop
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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Fri May 17, 2019 6:04 pm

behramjee wrote:
Link: https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... 19-results

Emirates announces a -69% drop in net profits for the financial year 2018-19 ending on 31mar.

Net profit of the airline itself was $237m where as the Emirates Group was $631m as DNATA made the balance of $394m.


Not at all surprising. I have pointed out multiple times in the past how ME3 model is unsustainable -

1) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415545#p21095075

2) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=604301&start=50#p9600715

3) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=604301&start=100#p9602689

ME3 are an accidental wonder due to :

- Loads of govt cash (yes, i give it to them, rarely does govt create something like what they have done - the ME3 airlines and their 3 hubs).
- Lack of vision and a good aviation policy in India.
- Advanced aircraft technology had/has not matured yet that can do SYD/MEL/ADL/BNE/PER - LHR/BHX/MAN/CDG/FRA/AMS/MAD nonstops efficiently or for that matter DEL/BOM/BLR/MAA/AMD - North America non stops [and yeah pls don't reply saying AI is flying a bunch of non stops].

As more and more 787s and A350s come online + more efficient aircrafts in future; AUH,DOH,DXB AND their respective airlines EY,QR,EK will become less and less relevant; eventually being reduced to regional O&D airlines flying more narrow bodies. They may even have to consolidate into 1 airline to stay afloat. We on a.net have long suspected and debated at length on subsidies and how ME3 in general manage to stay afloat without making profits. This is all the more proof.

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