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Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Tue May 14, 2019 6:02 pm
by dtw2hyd
WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Tue May 14, 2019 7:06 pm
by WorldFlier
dtw2hyd wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120



I know you probably did not mean to come off this way, but there's more to "West and North" than the USA and LHR.

In addition, LHR is a backtrack for all of Europe-India except Norther England and Ireland.

I'm not a fan of any of the ME carriers for political reasons (I refuse to support any country or business with my money that treats people as they do, if I can help it - next car will be electric), but I can see how they (and specifically Emirates) have a valid business case to exist, especially when considering their "competition" - AI, PIA, etc.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Tue May 14, 2019 7:41 pm
by lightsaber
WorldFlier wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.


Napkin math.

AI - 4 US -DEL- 40 Indian = 160
One World - 20 US -LHR- 5 Indian = 100
EK 12 US -DXB- 10 Indian = 120



I know you probably did not mean to come off this way, but there's more to "West and North" than the USA and LHR.

In addition, LHR is a backtrack for all of Europe-India except Norther England and Ireland.

I'm not a fan of any of the ME carriers for political reasons (I refuse to support any country or business with my money that treats people as they do, if I can help it - next car will be electric), but I can see how they (and specifically Emirates) have a valid business case to exist, especially when considering their "competition" - AI, PIA, etc.

The napkin math does bring up a valid point, EK doesn't dominate connectivity as they used to.
Now, EK to Europe is 28 EU points (or has it grown) * 10 India =280. But for many (most?) there are alternative connections in AUH, DOH, ISL, ADD, as well as back tracking from FRA.

Premium passengers demand direct and convienient service. I fully expect with 787 or A350 engine PIPs we will see more direct flights to the USA. I expect the A321xLR to start a fragmentation of EU/Asia markets that will increase if the NMA is launched.

Lightsaber

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Wed May 15, 2019 11:36 am
by FrenchPotatoEye
lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Wed May 15, 2019 11:55 am
by lightsaber
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?

Does EK need the size of aircraft they have? If anything, I expect 777x to replace A380 and 787-10 to replace 77W within EU/most of Asia. I see massive down gauging ahead.

Lightsaber

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Wed May 15, 2019 12:50 pm
by scbriml
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
First, the 787 order still in negotiations is a pleasant surprise.



It makes you wonder what affects it could have on the A350-900 and a330-900 discussions with Airbus.

Does Emirates need another 100+ new crates?


It is interesting to try and work out exactly what they're playing at.
    Reduced A380 fleet and A339 & A359 listed in 2019 Annual Report
    The A339/A359/A380 rejig has yet to hit Airbus's books
    787-10 removed from 2019 Annual Report, but was listed in 2018
    Apparently still negotiating with Boeing on the 787 order

I'm struggling to see the need for 110 A339s, A359s and 787-10s, unless EK is looking at a significant downsizing and maybe taking fewer 777X?

It's not dull! :spin:

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 6:52 am
by FrenchPotatoEye
^ Wasn't there a recent bloomburg article suggesting that Emirates wanted more 777X, not less?

As you say, not dull at all. Changing times!

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 7:13 am
by LAX772LR
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 7:34 am
by scbriml
FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
^ Wasn't there a recent bloomburg article suggesting that Emirates wanted more 777X, not less?

As you say, not dull at all. Changing times!


There was, but then it went very quiet.

Could be EK just needing to get all its ducks in a row before pulling the trigger.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:29 pm
by musman9853
WorldFlier wrote:
Aquila3 wrote:
emiratesdriver wrote:
Airbazar..



Which is the exact opposite of what the pre-announcement management briefing detailed, moreover there has been an admission of sorts that the fleet mix has been wrong for some time and that the focus will continue to shift from additional capacity to improving yield.
Expect the acceleration of the A380 leaving EK service based on what I’ve seen today.


Tell me a reason why one should fly Emirates without the A380 (in Y).
Without them EK will be an airline like all the others, and quite an average one, I would say.


Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.

Asia to Africa.

Anywhere in the Middle East, especially where other reputable carriers may not fly.

Pakistan. Do they have an airline?

Emirates isn't going anywhere, but they sure as hell won't have 80 A380s going forward...


there's pia for pakistan but its pretty small and not that good.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:15 pm
by WorldFlier
musman9853 wrote:
WorldFlier wrote:
Aquila3 wrote:

Tell me a reason why one should fly Emirates without the A380 (in Y).
Without them EK will be an airline like all the others, and quite an average one, I would say.


Tier 2 City to Tier 2 City with 1 stop instead of 2+ stops.

India to anywhere West or North.

Asia to Africa.

Anywhere in the Middle East, especially where other reputable carriers may not fly.

Pakistan. Do they have an airline?

Emirates isn't going anywhere, but they sure as hell won't have 80 A380s going forward...


there's pia for pakistan but its pretty small and not that good.


That was the joke. Emirates is so much better than most carriers in many of the countries (and better than all carriers in some countries) which is why they are so dominant.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 3:11 pm
by Veigar
EK 787s are still being negotiated?

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 3:42 pm
by par13del
scbriml wrote:
It is interesting to try and work out exactly what they're playing at.
    Reduced A380 fleet and A339 & A359 listed in 2019 Annual Report
    The A339/A359/A380 rejig has yet to hit Airbus's books
    787-10 removed from 2019 Annual Report, but was listed in 2018
    Apparently still negotiating with Boeing on the 787 order

I'm struggling to see the need for 110 A339s, A359s and 787-10s, unless EK is looking at a significant downsizing and maybe taking fewer 777X?

It's not dull! :spin:

Well one has to look at the penalties associated with the cancellation of their A380 order, it is not all about where and how they want to fly, for want of a better term, it can also be about making the best of their current financial situation, pay the penalties of get a/c that you can use within your network.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 6:06 pm
by FrenchPotatoEye
Something else to consider is Emirates plan to start premium economy classes.

A four-class A350-900 would make sense and probably help long term too.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 11:14 pm
by Buffalomatt1027
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 2:28 am
by LAX772LR
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.

Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

Out of curiosity, where exactly do you get that idea from?

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 4:27 am
by Mrakula
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


I suppose Tim Clark said opposite

Cheers

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 8:55 am
by ME720
I guess EK and EY must Be on an edge will the drums of war beating in the Persian Gulf.
Air space will be closed, and with all the US bases in the region, cities in the region might not be spared from missile attacks.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 9:00 am
by MoKa777
ME720 wrote:
I guess EK and EY must Be on an edge will the drums of war beating in the Persian Gulf.
Air space will be closed, and with all the US bases in the region, cities in the region might not be spared from missile attacks.


I sincerely hope this does not happen.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 12:46 pm
by dtw2hyd
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


Every frame has its own break-even load factor(BELF). Above BELF you make a profit on that route. A380 need not be 100% full to make a profit.

Without offering heavy discounts or filling premium cabins with free upgrades, of the 365 days in a year,

A 777 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than an A380.
A 787 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than a 777

Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:02 pm
by Arion640
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
A fully loaded A380 is very profitable, even with high fuel costs.

That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


An A380 needs to be 100% full to make a profit. What rubbish. Depends on the fares and yield.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 1:21 pm
by worldranger
...and amortization cost

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 5:34 pm
by lightsaber
dtw2hyd wrote:
Buffalomatt1027 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's a presumptive statement. Anyone can fill any aircraft to anywhere, if you charge rock-bottom junk fares.

Simply filling an A380 does not automatically equate to it being profitable, regardless of fuel.



Yes, this is true. But an A380 has to be 100% full to make a profit.

777's need to just be 80% full to make a profit.


So not all aircraft need to be full to make a profit.


Every frame has its own break-even load factor(BELF). Above BELF you make a profit on that route. A380 need not be 100% full to make a profit.

Without offering heavy discounts or filling premium cabins with free upgrades, of the 365 days in a year,

A 777 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than an A380.
A 787 has a better chance of reaching BELF on more days than a 777

Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.

You make a good point. However, cost per equivalent seat also plays a role.
779 will have the lowest cost.
Then A35K
Then 787-10 (short missions <5000nm even better).
Then A359/789 (mission dependent which is cheaper).
A388
788
A339
A338
77W/A333 (again, mission dependent, can be better than A338 and A388, depending on fuel prices).
A332

So your simplified assumptions work unless the
Seats*(Sales per- cost per) comes out ahead.

There will always be trunk routes that fill enough of the larger planes, but subfleets need to be 17 to 20 minimum for operation economics.

Direct routes always receive a fare premium. So small planes with range benefit. Hence A321xLR and 797. Let's not forget you can only sell on routes one is servicing.

Once upon a time, it was very typical to stop twice (bridge hubbing), often for primary cities far apart. Then only bridge hubbing for secondary cities. Now it is only common for secondary city to secondary city. Tertiary cities will always have it tougher and need connections to mega hubs to thrive, such as DXB.

Unfortunately, at the high yield times, DXB is full. Unfortunately, new entrants are diluting connection yield.

New smaller planes are allowing the competition to expand. I've predicted connecting yield will continue to drop. EK must adapt to this reality.

Lightsaber

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 17, 2019 6:04 pm
by 747megatop
behramjee wrote:
Link: https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... 19-results

Emirates announces a -69% drop in net profits for the financial year 2018-19 ending on 31mar.

Net profit of the airline itself was $237m where as the Emirates Group was $631m as DNATA made the balance of $394m.


Not at all surprising. I have pointed out multiple times in the past how ME3 model is unsustainable -

1) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415545#p21095075

2) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=604301&start=50#p9600715

3) viewtopic.php?f=3&t=604301&start=100#p9602689

ME3 are an accidental wonder due to :

- Loads of govt cash (yes, i give it to them, rarely does govt create something like what they have done - the ME3 airlines and their 3 hubs).
- Lack of vision and a good aviation policy in India.
- Advanced aircraft technology had/has not matured yet that can do SYD/MEL/ADL/BNE/PER - LHR/BHX/MAN/CDG/FRA/AMS/MAD nonstops efficiently or for that matter DEL/BOM/BLR/MAA/AMD - North America non stops [and yeah pls don't reply saying AI is flying a bunch of non stops].

As more and more 787s and A350s come online + more efficient aircrafts in future; AUH,DOH,DXB AND their respective airlines EY,QR,EK will become less and less relevant; eventually being reduced to regional O&D airlines flying more narrow bodies. They may even have to consolidate into 1 airline to stay afloat. We on a.net have long suspected and debated at length on subsidies and how ME3 in general manage to stay afloat without making profits. This is all the more proof.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 2:47 am
by LAX772LR
dtw2hyd wrote:
Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.

Not always true, as that fails to take into account economy of scale in terms of costs.
There's a happy medium to be found, and it depends on a number of factors.

Were it so simple as "smallest thing with range" being optimal, then for example the 762ER amd 747SP would have enjoyed a lot more domination of the longhaul market than they actually did. The former had the seat count of a 757 and nearly the range of an MD11. And everyone knows what a performer the latter was.

Yet they were eaten alive by the 763ER and 742B, due to those aircrafts' increase cost efficiency while still offering similar-albeit-less range and performance.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Wed May 22, 2019 3:19 am
by NTLDaz
747megatop wrote:
behramjee wrote:
Link: https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/e ... 19-results

Emirates announces a -69% drop in net profits for the financial year 2018-19 ending on 31mar.

Net profit of the airline itself was $237m where as the Emirates Group was $631m as DNATA made the balance of $394m.


Not at all surprising. I have pointed out multiple times in the past how ME3 model is unsustainable -

1) https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... #p21095075

2) https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... 0#p9600715

3) https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtop ... 0#p9602689

ME3 are an accidental wonder due to :

- Loads of govt cash (yes, i give it to them, rarely does govt create something like what they have done - the ME3 airlines and their 3 hubs).
- Lack of vision and a good aviation policy in India.
- Advanced aircraft technology had/has not matured yet that can do SYD/MEL/ADL/BNE/PER - LHR/BHX/MAN/CDG/FRA/AMS/MAD nonstops efficiently or for that matter DEL/BOM/BLR/MAA/AMD - North America non stops [and yeah pls don't reply saying AI is flying a bunch of non stops].

As more and more 787s and A350s come online + more efficient aircrafts in future; AUH,DOH,DXB AND their respective airlines EY,QR,EK will become less and less relevant; eventually being reduced to regional O&D airlines flying more narrow bodies. They may even have to consolidate into 1 airline to stay afloat. We on a.net have long suspected and debated at length on subsidies and how ME3 in general manage to stay afloat without making profits. This is all the more proof.


Except Emirates make profits. They provide funds to the Emirate of Dubai.

Dubai is one of the most visited cities on Earth and will likely stay so. There is very little oil in Dubai to fund largesse.

Parts of your post makes sense but you've been able to fly non stop ( as an example ) from Europe to SE Asia for a long time but many people still connect in Dubai. I can't foresee a time soon when there will be multiple frequencies from all the cities in Europe non stop throughout Asia and Oceania.

Yes Emirates will face challenges but they'll be ok. Maybe different but ok.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 4:48 pm
by 747megatop
NTLDaz wrote:
Dubai is one of the most visited cities on Earth and will likely stay so.


Care to quantify (with factual data) and elaborate please? Can't be more visited than LA, New York, London, Beijing, Chicago, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo to name a few.

Dubai's population is just over 3 million. Even if the entire 3 million population flew every month DXB would come in at 30 million ppa which is less than half of what LAX handles for example. So, are you telling me that 30 to 40 million more passengers are queueing up just to visit and do business in Dubai every year? That's hard to believe. Yes, there may be some ultra rich folks headed there for business or whatever reason (vacation homes?)...but they would be using their own private jets!

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 9:42 pm
by NTLDaz
747megatop wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Dubai is one of the most visited cities on Earth and will likely stay so.


Care to quantify (with factual data) and elaborate please? Can't be more visited than LA, New York, London, Beijing, Chicago, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo to name a few.

Dubai's population is just over 3 million. Even if the entire 3 million population flew every month DXB would come in at 30 million ppa which is less than half of what LAX handles for example. So, are you telling me that 30 to 40 million more passengers are queueing up just to visit and do business in Dubai every year? That's hard to believe. Yes, there may be some ultra rich folks headed there for business or whatever reason (vacation homes?)...but they would be using their own private jets!


Do a simple Google search of most visited cities in the world. MasterCard Global Destinations Cities Index rated Dubai the 4th most visited city in the world for 2018. Of your list only London beats it.

Clearly you haven't been there. There's a reason for the hundreds of hotels. It is estimated there will be 132 000 hotel rooms this year in Dubai.

BTW if you are going to call for factual data maybe put some up for your list.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Thu May 23, 2019 10:24 pm
by dtw2hyd
LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Smallest frame with range survives, making the biggest frame more vulnerable.

Not always true, as that fails to take into account economy of scale in terms of costs.
There's a happy medium to be found, and it depends on a number of factors.

Were it so simple as "smallest thing with range" being optimal, then for example the 762ER amd 747SP would have enjoyed a lot more domination of the longhaul market than they actually did. The former had the seat count of a 757 and nearly the range of an MD11. And everyone knows what a performer the latter was.

Yet they were eaten alive by the 763ER and 742B, due to those aircrafts' increase cost efficiency while still offering similar-albeit-less range and performance.


The simple fact is seat can't fly on its own, planes fly. The most critical factor is trip cos, low seat cost and economies of scale are secondary.

For a decade or so everyone said EK/STC were the only airline manager combo who could fill 100xA380s everyday profitably. Imagine some other poor airline manager buying 100xA380s believing that myth.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:18 am
by LAX772LR
dtw2hyd wrote:
The most critical factor is trip cos, low seat cost and economies of scale are secondary.

:lol: :lol: That is not REMOTELY accurate, as even a generalist statement:

  • an A319 has lower trip costs than an A321... which one sold better?
  • a 762ER has lower trip costs than a 763ER... which one sold better?
  • a 77L has lower trip costs than an 77W... which one sold wayyyyy better?
  • ...etc etc etc, throughout the industry.

Heck, you can see that it's generally not true on a per-model and a per-frequency basis.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:39 am
by RyanairGuru
747megatop wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Dubai is one of the most visited cities on Earth and will likely stay so.


Care to quantify (with factual data) and elaborate please? Can't be more visited than LA, New York, London, Beijing, Chicago, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo to name a few.

Dubai's population is just over 3 million. Even if the entire 3 million population flew every month DXB would come in at 30 million ppa which is less than half of what LAX handles for example. So, are you telling me that 30 to 40 million more passengers are queueing up just to visit and do business in Dubai every year? That's hard to believe. Yes, there may be some ultra rich folks headed there for business or whatever reason (vacation homes?)...but they would be using their own private jets!


I can't put my finger on a source right now, but IIRC DXB is somewhere in the region of 55% O&D. As already pointed out to you it is one of the largest tourist destinations in the world, and it is also the primary finance and commerce hub for the greater Middle East.

There is a reason that 70 airlines fly to DXB. While not a great comparison as it doesn't take into account frequency, capacity etc, DXB has basically the same number of non-hub carriers as JFK and LAX, and not far behind LHR. There's a lot more traffic going through there than just Emirates.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 10:33 am
by lalib
I just flew EK from DXB to HKG (EK 382) on 22 May to my surprise economy was 25 to 30% empty.

I have flown this route before and usually its a full flight.

Service and Seat width was great on the A380!

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:01 am
by dtw2hyd
LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
The most critical factor is trip cos, low seat cost and economies of scale are secondary.

:lol: :lol: That is not REMOTELY accurate, as even a generalist statement:

  • an A319 has lower trip costs than an A321... which one sold better?
  • a 762ER has lower trip costs than a 763ER... which one sold better?
  • a 77L has lower trip costs than an 77W... which one sold wayyyyy better?
  • ...etc etc etc, throughout the industry.

Heck, you can see that it's generally not true on a per-model and a per-frequency basis.


Bigger font and emojis prove nothing.

Rather than comparing random frames, compare frames EK has or its competitors have.

Also, we are not talking about frame sales. Discussion is about frame profitability.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:32 am
by lightsaber
dtw2hyd wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
The most critical factor is trip cos, low seat cost and economies of scale are secondary.

:lol: :lol: That is not REMOTELY accurate, as even a generalist statement:

  • an A319 has lower trip costs than an A321... which one sold better?
  • a 762ER has lower trip costs than a 763ER... which one sold better?
  • a 77L has lower trip costs than an 77W... which one sold wayyyyy better?
  • ...etc etc etc, throughout the industry.

Heck, you can see that it's generally not true on a per-model and a per-frequency basis.


Bigger font and emojis prove nothing.

Rather than comparing random frames, compare frames EK has or its competitors have.

Also, we are not talking about frame sales. Discussion is about frame profitability.

Frame profitability is reflected in the resale market.

For EK frames, 77W vs. 77L.

Trip costs are important, but not everything. Airlines that manage per seat costs well, like EK, may persue the volume market.

EK did extreamely well. They put Dubai on the map. There are several Emirates Dubai grew past that will have a tough time entering the global economy.

EK needs low seat costs for transfer traffic. There model of serving a new city with 1 to 20 passengers transferring to each destination city worked. The issue is competition with more O&D traffic.

If cost per flight was all that mattered, the 788 would be the best selling widebody. Instead, the 789 outsells it. EK is still considering the 787-10. Hmmm...

Now, higher cost per flight must have lower cost per seat. After far more 77W PIPs, the A388 just wasn't competitive. Then the 789/A359 just blew it out of the water.

EK needs the 779 and A359 soon.

Lightsaber

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:51 pm
by behramjee
lalib wrote:
I just flew EK from DXB to HKG (EK 382) on 22 May to my surprise economy was 25 to 30% empty.

I have flown this route before and usually its a full flight.

Service and Seat width was great on the A380!


70-75% SF on an A380 on a route with multiple daily frequencies is quite decent in low season. Plus remember it’s Ramadan so p2p traffic demand to/from any gcc city takes a dip except JED/MED.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 2:41 am
by LAX772LR
dtw2hyd wrote:
Bigger font and emojis prove nothing.

But a nearly consistent history of larger heavier frames within a mission set (1) outselling their lighter equivalent, and (2) skewing to an airline's internal preference when it operates both/similar types... does.



dtw2hyd wrote:
Also, we are not talking about frame sales. Discussion is about frame profitability.

Huhhhhhhh??????

I can't tell if you're ACTUALLY being serious with a statement like this, but to humor it, I'll respond as if you are:
Exactly what do you think is the primary impetus behind an aircraft variant's sales?

It almost sounds like you're implying that a variant that airlines find less profitable is going to somehow outsell one that they find, is.... which would be in utter defiance of general logic.

Please explain. I'd be interested to hear this.

Re: Emirates announces -69% drop in net profits

Posted: Tue May 28, 2019 4:28 pm
by dtw2hyd
LAX772LR wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Bigger font and emojis prove nothing.

But a nearly consistent history of larger heavier frames within a mission set (1) outselling their lighter equivalent, and (2) skewing to an airline's internal preference when it operates both/similar types... does.



dtw2hyd wrote:
Also, we are not talking about frame sales. Discussion is about frame profitability.

Huhhhhhhh??????

I can't tell if you're ACTUALLY being serious with a statement like this, but to humor it, I'll respond as if you are:
Exactly what do you think is the primary impetus behind an aircraft variant's sales?

It almost sounds like you're implying that a variant that airlines find less profitable is going to somehow outsell one that they find, is.... which would be in utter defiance of general logic.

Please explain. I'd be interested to hear this.


If this thread title was EK made a $2B profit, took 36 A380 deliveries, yes I would agree. But it is not.

Even with several service "enhancements" over the last couple of years and with a net addition of two frames, EK's profits went down by 69% last year.

Every frame has its place, buying the wrong frame in bulk is not going to make it work.

You can fly two B787s but cannot fly half A380.