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Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 5:18 am
by ronmk1986
As some people already know, OZ will cease its ICN-ORD route as of 27th October.

Then, will ICN-ORD route be KE's another cash cow monopoly route? Or anyone foresees UA replacing OZ's ORD-ICN route?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 5:21 am
by LHUSA
They are going double daily on SFO-ICN,so I think that's sealed ORD's fate in getting ICN service on UA. If UA were to add anything to ICN outside of SFO, I presume it would be EWR.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 5:48 am
by LH658
EWR, IAD, LAX, and IAH seem like good candidates..

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 6:23 am
by AS737MAX
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 9:33 am
by Planes4you
LH658 wrote:
EWR, IAD, LAX, and IAH seem like good candidates..


Asiana is having financial trouble adding new routes Is the last thing they need to do.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 10:03 am
by Bobloblaw
AS737MAX wrote:
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

Yeah too much capacity

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 10:21 am
by ronmk1986
Bobloblaw wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

Yeah too much capacity


Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
(e.g. - Seattle).

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 12:26 pm
by ronmk1986
LHUSA wrote:
They are going double daily on SFO-ICN,so I think that's sealed ORD's fate in getting ICN service on UA. If UA were to add anything to ICN outside of SFO, I presume it would be EWR.


Compared to EWR or SFO (maybe LAX in a lesser degree), is ORD the US domestic-focused hub for UA (except for Canada)?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 12:35 pm
by Planeboy17
AS737MAX wrote:
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

UA has not cut any Asian nonstops out of ORD recently. They still fly daily to NRT, HKG, PEK, and PVG.
AA cut just about all of their service, PVG and PEK and only fly NRT 3 days a week. ( JAL has taken over the other 4 days).
EVA started TPE service 11/2016 and HU is scheduled to start service to Chengdu ( although this route has now been moved to a September start instead of a June start )
ronmk1986 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

Yeah too much capacity


Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
A little perspective here, ORD still has more nonstops to Tokyo ( HND and NRT ) than any other US airport other than HNL and LAX.
They are only the fourth US airport ( SEA, LAX, SFO) that have 2 carriers flying to both PEK and PVG.
ORD is one of only 5 airports ( SEA, LAX, SFO, JFK ) that has nonstops to ICN, PEK, PVG, NRT, HND, HKG and TPE.
SEA and LAX would be off the list when India is included.
So I would certainly think that’s excellent coverage for an area of Chicago’s size especially considering it is non coastal.
The NY area was divided because of EWR and JFK so they actually have more Tokyo flights and also have 2 carriers to China.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 12:53 pm
by YYZORD
YYZ has been recently been increasing their Toronto-Asia routes, YYZ has double or equal amount of flights to asia destinations excluding Tokyo compared to ORD. Maybe many people now connect through YYZ and ORD is decreasing in asia traffic due to this.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 1:02 pm
by b747400erf
So many options for passengers and cargo, the market is saturated, if your financials are struggling why compete with a handful of other airlines all cutting prices?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 1:10 pm
by klm617
b747400erf wrote:
So many options for passengers and cargo, the market is saturated, if your financials are struggling why compete with a handful of other airlines all cutting prices?


Exactly everybody piling on into one market and everyone loses. Time to spread it out a bit and serve some of the other markets where there is little or no competition.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 1:16 pm
by enilria
ronmk1986 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
It seems like Chicago-Asia has been steadily cut for 3-4 years now. UA, AA, etc. I don't mean to sound naive, but Is there some aspect of the market that just isn't working?

Yeah too much capacity


Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
(e.g. - Seattle).

Feb2020 is flat with Feb2016 in Asia seats, with these adds: HU CTU, BR TPE, NH HND, and MU PVG. Poor ORD only gaining 4 long-haul routes on 4 different carriers in 4 years. And only losing 2: AA PEK/PVG. So that puts poor ORD ahead of probably every city in the USA not on the West Coast in net routes gained.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 1:17 pm
by LAXdude1023
ronmk1986 wrote:
LHUSA wrote:
They are going double daily on SFO-ICN,so I think that's sealed ORD's fate in getting ICN service on UA. If UA were to add anything to ICN outside of SFO, I presume it would be EWR.


Compared to EWR or SFO (maybe LAX in a lesser degree), is ORD the US domestic-focused hub for UA (except for Canada)?


ORD is UA's jack of all trades hub. Its a domestic powerhouse but also has significant service to Asia and Europe. The only region where it doesnt have lots of service is Latin America with just a couple of flights to Mexico and a flight to GRU.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 1:31 pm
by adamblang
Planeboy17 wrote:
A little perspective here, ORD still has more nonstops to Tokyo ( HND and NRT ) than any other US airport other than HNL and LAX.
They are only the fourth US airport ( SEA, LAX, SFO) that have 2 carriers flying to both PEK and PVG.
ORD is one of only 5 airports ( SEA, LAX, SFO, JFK ) that has nonstops to ICN, PEK, PVG, NRT, HND, HKG and TPE.
SEA and LAX would be off the list when India is included.
So I would certainly think that’s excellent coverage for an area of Chicago’s size especially considering it is non coastal.
The NY area was divided because of EWR and JFK so they actually have more Tokyo flights and also have 2 carriers to China.

Thank you.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 2:38 pm
by Planeboy17
adamblang wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
A little perspective here, ORD still has more nonstops to Tokyo ( HND and NRT ) than any other US airport other than HNL and LAX.
They are only the fourth US airport ( SEA, LAX, SFO) that have 2 carriers flying to both PEK and PVG.
ORD is one of only 5 airports ( SEA, LAX, SFO, JFK ) that has nonstops to ICN, PEK, PVG, NRT, HND, HKG and TPE.
SEA and LAX would be off the list when India is included.
So I would certainly think that’s excellent coverage for an area of Chicago’s size especially considering it is non coastal.
The NY area was divided because of EWR and JFK so they actually have more Tokyo flights and also have 2 carriers to China.

Thank you.

Your welcome.
I apologize about the presentation but I didn’t sleep well last night and was helping get my kids to school when I wrote it.
I admit that I’m an ORD guy but I get a little tired of the hyperbole sometimes on here. I always try to stay objective though and I appreciate Eniliria’s factually based response as opposed to just opinion. ( not to mention his awesome OAG update thread).
I’m in agreement that ORD-ASIA is probably a bit over saturated but then I would have to think that SEA, SFO, NY and LA probably are as well.
It’s going to be really interesting the next couple of years with China changing the 1 carrier rule, opening of the new Beijing airport and increased tariffs taking effect today.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 2:43 pm
by evanb
ronmk1986 wrote:
Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
(e.g. - Seattle).


You've had a bunch of Asian airlines dumping a lot of capacity on Chicago in recent years. This has eroded yields dramatically.

As of now, you have:
AI daily ORD-DEL
NH daily ORD-HND and daily ORD-NRT
JL daily ORD-NRT
CX daily ORD-HKG
KE daily ORD-ICN
MU 5x weekly ORD-PVG
HU 4x weekly ORD-PEK

And then the middle east also connecting a lot of passengers to Asia:
EK daily ORD-DXB
EY daily ORD-AUH
QR daily ORD-DOH
RJ daily ORD-AMM
TK daily ORD-IST

That said, UA still have a pretty strong Asian network: Daily to PEK, NRT, PVG and HKG

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 2:54 pm
by B752OS
evanb wrote:
ronmk1986 wrote:
Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
(e.g. - Seattle).


You've had a bunch of Asian airlines dumping a lot of capacity on Chicago in recent years. This has eroded yields dramatically.

As of now, you have:
AI daily ORD-DEL
NH daily ORD-HND and daily ORD-NRT
JL daily ORD-NRT
CX daily ORD-HKG
KE daily ORD-ICN
MU 5x weekly ORD-PVG
HU 4x weekly ORD-PEK

And then the middle east also connecting a lot of passengers to Asia:
EK daily ORD-DXB
EY daily ORD-AUH
QR daily ORD-DOH
RJ daily ORD-AMM
TK daily ORD-IST

That said, UA still have a pretty strong Asian network: Daily to PEK, NRT, PVG and HKG


Outside of NYC, SF and LA, that has to be the largest amount of Asian service by foreign carriers. Throw in the UA service to NRT, PEK and PVG and AA to NRT and ORD is very well served to/from Asia.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:23 pm
by SonaSounds
adamblang wrote:
Planeboy17 wrote:
A little perspective here, ORD still has more nonstops to Tokyo ( HND and NRT ) than any other US airport other than HNL and LAX.
They are only the fourth US airport ( SEA, LAX, SFO) that have 2 carriers flying to both PEK and PVG.
ORD is one of only 5 airports ( SEA, LAX, SFO, JFK ) that has nonstops to ICN, PEK, PVG, NRT, HND, HKG and TPE.
SEA and LAX would be off the list when India is included.
So I would certainly think that’s excellent coverage for an area of Chicago’s size especially considering it is non coastal.
The NY area was divided because of EWR and JFK so they actually have more Tokyo flights and also have 2 carriers to China.

Thank you.


While your stats are correct if you include Japan as a whole and don't cherry-pick just Tokyo, both GUM and SFO shoot past ORD as far as seats to Japan.


Additionally ORD has slipped another spot this year in number of total international carriers:

July 2019
JFK - 72
LAX - 61
MIA - 49
SFO - 45
ORD - 42

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:31 pm
by yeogeo
[quote="SonaSounds"ORD has slipped another spot this year in number of total international carriers:

July 2019
JFK - 72
LAX - 61
MIA - 49
SFO - 45
ORD - 42[/quote]

TAP starts ORD on June 1, so if the "slippage" is due to only losing Asiana, that'll be covered in a few weeks.

...and I think you mean "international passenger carriers, as O'Hare had a whole slew of international cargo carriers which could be counted in total international carriers.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:33 pm
by SonaSounds
yeogeo wrote:
SonaSounds wrote:
ORD has slipped another spot this year in number of total international carriers:

July 2019
JFK - 72
LAX - 61
MIA - 49
SFO - 45
ORD - 42


TAP starts ORD on June 1, so if the "slippage" is due to only losing Asiana, that'll be covered in a few weeks.
[/quote][/quote][/quote]

TAP also starts SFO June 10th. As stated in my original post this is July 2019 data which already includes both of these additions.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:33 pm
by c933103
Planeboy17 wrote:
Your welcome.
I apologize about the presentation but I didn’t sleep well last night and was helping get my kids to school when I wrote it.
I admit that I’m an ORD guy but I get a little tired of the hyperbole sometimes on here. I always try to stay objective though and I appreciate Eniliria’s factually based response as opposed to just opinion. ( not to mention his awesome OAG update thread).
I’m in agreement that ORD-ASIA is probably a bit over saturated but then I would have to think that SEA, SFO, NY and LA probably are as well.
It’s going to be really interesting the next couple of years with China changing the 1 carrier rule, opening of the new Beijing airport and increased tariffs taking effect today.

That mean little, given the current restriction in the bilateral air service treaty between Chinese and America have already reached for Zone 1 on the Chinese side and is also close to the limit on American side. Maybe CZ will move some of their CAN flights to PKX, maybe AA will restart some of their Chinese flights, but that's it.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:38 pm
by SonaSounds
yeogeo wrote:
...and I think you mean "international passenger carriers, as O'Hare had a whole slew of international cargo carriers which could be counted in total international carriers.


As do all the other airports on this list.....I thought passenger carriers was obviously implied given the discussion of this thread but if you need to nitpick, yes, the list I pulled is for international passenger carriers

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 3:42 pm
by ITSTours
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 6:00 pm
by Bobloblaw
YYZORD wrote:
YYZ has been recently been increasing their Toronto-Asia routes, YYZ has double or equal amount of flights to asia destinations excluding Tokyo compared to ORD. Maybe many people now connect through YYZ and ORD is decreasing in asia traffic due to this.

First: as has been reported the GTA has surpassed Chicago in population. Secondly GTA has a huge Asian population far in excess of Chicago and GTA is the financial center of Canada were as Chicago, as a nice city with lots of HQ, isnt. I wouldn’t be surprised if the GDP within 50 miles of YYZ is larger than the GDP within 50 miles or ORD.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 6:15 pm
by LH658
Planes4you wrote:
LH658 wrote:
EWR, IAD, LAX, and IAH seem like good candidates..


Asiana is having financial trouble adding new routes Is the last thing they need to do.


I was talking about for UA to fill in.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 7:43 pm
by YYZORD
Toronto GTA will surpass Chicago Metro in the next 15-20 years as Toronto GTA is growing significantly while Chicago has been in the 9.5 million range for awhile now with no future growth. Toronto is in the same growth pace as Dallas and Houston.

ORD2010 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
YYZ has been recently been increasing their Toronto-Asia routes, YYZ has double or equal amount of flights to asia destinations excluding Tokyo compared to ORD. Maybe many people now connect through YYZ and ORD is decreasing in asia traffic due to this.

First: as has been reported the GTA has surpassed Chicago in population. Secondly GTA has a huge Asian population far in excess of Chicago and GTA is the financial center of Canada were as Chicago, as a nice city with lots of HQ, isnt. I wouldn’t be surprised if the GDP within 50 miles of YYZ is larger than the GDP within 50 miles or ORD.


Where did you hear this? The current population of Chicago metro is around 9.5 million while Toronto’s is 7, that’s 2.5 million people Toronto still needs to gain before touching Chicago’s, not to mention Chicago is the only North American city predicted to become a mega city in the coming years. I will give GTA the Asian population which comes naturally as it is, per say, the New York of Canada. Chicago could obviously never be the financial center of Canada, however Toronto’s current GDP is around $380b while Chicago’s is around $700b. Chicago has led the nation for most corporate relocations for many years now, and continues to financially grow exponentially. Not to mention ORD sits on the ‘golden corridor’ filled with Fortune 500 offices. Not to mention Chicago ranks highly as one of the worlds most influential cities, higher than Toronto. I love Toronto, actually one of my favorite cities to visit, but you can’t say it’s surpased Chicago at all, while in carriers of course, it’s the largest most important city in Canada and I’m happy that we both lay in one of the most important, largest, and richest megaregions of the world #gogreatlakes.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 7:50 pm
by compensateme
DL with a daily 359 to supplement KE sounds about right.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 8:06 pm
by YYZORD
YYZ TPAC flights when compared to ORD:

ICN: 1x KE, 1x AC (1/day more than ORD once OZ ends ORD service in Oct)
HKG: 10/wk CX, 1x AC (17/wk, 3/wk more than ORD)
HND: 1x AC (Same as ORD, ORD has 4x NRT flights)
TPE: 1x BR (ORD = 5/wk on BR)
PEK: 1x HU, 1x AC (ORD = 11/wk)
PVG: 1x MU, 1x AC (ORD = 12/wk)
CAN: 5/wk CZ (ORD = 0)
MNL: 1x PR (ORD = 0)

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 8:30 pm
by kiowa
Would be nice to see United or AA do it but I suspect AA is not in the cards. Korean is not an option for me because I do not like peanuts served in first class anymore than the CEOs daughter:)

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Fri May 10, 2019 11:21 pm
by Fargo
Planeboy17 wrote:
Maybe you thought city population but the MSA is growing.


Albeit, at a less than 1% rate

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 12:30 am
by zakuivcustom
Seriously...this turn into Chicago vs Toronto?

Toronto has all those flights to (East and South) Asia solely bc of demographics. The East Asian (and South Asian) population in Greater Toronto is a LOT larger than Chicagoland, period.

In just the City of Toronto alone (so I didn’t even include places like Markham), for example, there is ~300k Chinese and ~150k Filipinos (and ~340k South Asians). For comparison, you’re talking about maybe 50-60k Chinese in the entire Chicagoland.

Chicago Chinatown is like what? 5 blocks total? Meanwhile, there is like 10 Chinatown in GTA.

Seriously, you are comparing apples and oranges here.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 12:53 am
by ronmk1986
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).


That may explain another OZ’s disadvantage in ORD.

I know both the main customer source for KE and OZ in North American routes are ethnic Koreans, but what about other North Asian carriers in Japan (NH, JL) and Mainland China (CA, MU, or CZ) in their North American routes? Ethnic traffics as well?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:03 am
by zakuivcustom
ronmk1986 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).


That may explain another OZ’s disadvantage in ORD.

I know both the main customer source for KE and OZ in North American routes are ethnic Koreans, but what about other North Asian carriers in Japan (NH, JL) and Mainland China (CA, MU, or CZ) in their North American routes? Ethnic traffics as well?


CN3 (and HU and 3U and MF) in general definitely have more ethnic Chinese than American.

Even CX probably carry more ethnic Chinese traffic compare to let say, UA. Just using the route that I am most familiar with, ORD-HKG:
UA: Something like 50-50 split
CX: More like 80-20 split

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:06 am
by Antarius
kiowa wrote:
Would be nice to see United or AA do it but I suspect AA is not in the cards. Korean is not an option for me because I do not like peanuts served in first class anymore than the CEOs daughter:)


AA would be interesting, albeit unlikely. They launched DFW-ICN and that appears to have done very well; ORD wouldnt have the same tech travel, but could be an interesting add.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:07 am
by Antarius
kiowa wrote:
Would be nice to see United or AA do it but I suspect AA is not in the cards. Korean is not an option for me because I do not like peanuts served in first class anymore than the CEOs daughter:)


AA would be interesting, albeit unlikely. They launched DFW-ICN and that appears to have done very well; ORD wouldnt have the same tech travel, but could be an interesting add.

Also, :laughing: for the peanut comment. Nice.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:28 am
by paulduwon
I fly on OZ often, and given that Asiana is going through some management haul at the moment, my personal theory is that the board decided to cut some of the long-distance routes that bring fewer profits than others. When I flew on ORD-ICN route on OZ, it was usually 80-90% full. Not to mention Chicago area has about ~65,000 ethnic Korean population, which is a decent size. I've also ran into a lot of college/grad students from Korea connecting to other US towns via United to get to their schools on the OZ flight.

This is probably unlikely, but as a SQ enthusiast, my personal wish is that SQ starts a fifth freedom flight between ICN and ORD sometime.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:46 am
by ITSTours
ronmk1986 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).


That may explain another OZ’s disadvantage in ORD.

I know both the main customer source for KE and OZ in North American routes are ethnic Koreans, but what about other North Asian carriers in Japan (NH, JL) and Mainland China (CA, MU, or CZ) in their North American routes? Ethnic traffics as well?


Japanese for sure. Japanese people have very strong preferences for their flag carriers. And their premium classes are often full due to large numbers of business travelers.
This is another weakness of Asiana that it suffers from the lack of business travelers.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 1:50 am
by ITSTours
paulduwon wrote:
I fly on OZ often, and given that Asiana is going through some management haul at the moment, my personal theory is that the board decided to cut some of the long-distance routes that bring fewer profits than others.

Probably right.
paulduwon wrote:
When I flew on ORD-ICN route on OZ, it was usually 80-90% full.

The load factor is 83% so again right.
paulduwon wrote:
Not to mention Chicago area has about ~65,000 ethnic Korean population, which is a decent size. I've also ran into a lot of college/grad students from Korea connecting to other US towns via United to get to their schools on the OZ flight.

True, but it is a problem. Those international students only travel at the beginning and at the end of the semester. Such a surge in demand is very lucrative but also very temporary.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 2:15 am
by ORDfan
paulduwon wrote:
This is probably unlikely, but as a SQ enthusiast, my personal wish is that SQ starts a fifth freedom flight between ICN and ORD sometime.


I'd love to see SQ try ORD as a non-stop!

Agree with many posters that ORD has a lot of service to Asia with a lot of foreign flags. Really, SQ is the only one that's missing in my book.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Seriously...this turn into Chicago vs Toronto?


It's crazy how every thread about ORD devolves into urban theory socioeconomics with a smattering of partisanship for good measure, yet the most popular narratives are often baseless. I really can't figure out why the city is so polarizing to outsiders, when so many natives love it here. I'd love to list links showing how Chicago leads the country in high-income household growth, but it's not even worth taking the thread even more off topic. I suggest deletion as fast as I can spot em, and recommend others do the same.

Cheers

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 2:17 am
by ORDfan
enilria wrote:
ronmk1986 wrote:
Bobloblaw wrote:
Yeah too much capacity


Personally, I'm surprised to find Chicago, the 3rd largest city in the US, has been struggling to keep its non-stop flights to major cities in Asia. Maybe Chicago does not have a strong connection with other tier-1 cities in the Asia Pacific even compared to some smaller cities in the US
(e.g. - Seattle).

Feb2020 is flat with Feb2016 in Asia seats, with these adds: HU CTU, BR TPE, NH HND, and MU PVG. Poor ORD only gaining 4 long-haul routes on 4 different carriers in 4 years. And only losing 2: AA PEK/PVG. So that puts poor ORD ahead of probably every city in the USA not on the West Coast in net routes gained.


LOL great synopsis... I see what you did there hahaha. :lol:

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 3:15 am
by jetmechanicdave
ORDfan wrote:
paulduwon wrote:
This is probably unlikely, but as a SQ enthusiast, my personal wish is that SQ starts a fifth freedom flight between ICN and ORD sometime.


I'd love to see SQ try ORD as a non-stop!

Agree with many posters that ORD has a lot of service to Asia with a lot of foreign flags. Really, SQ is the only one that's missing in my book.

zakuivcustom wrote:
Seriously...this turn into Chicago vs Toronto?


It's crazy how every thread about ORD devolves into urban theory socioeconomics with a smattering of partisanship for good measure, yet the most popular narratives are often baseless. I really can't figure out why the city is so polarizing to outsiders, when so many natives love it here. I'd love to list links showing how Chicago leads the country in high-income household growth, but it's not even worth taking the thread even more off topic. I suggest deletion as fast as I can spot em, and recommend others do the same.

Cheers


Let’s keep on topic folks, please. Thanks

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 3:28 am
by ORD2010
I’d love to see SQ, would SIN-ICN-ORD work? Whatever happened to the rumored Philippines route?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 3:32 am
by YYZORD
I think that SIN-YVR-ORD is more likely, preclearance is an attractive thing at an airport and YVR has been the one of the biggest unserved routes from SIN along w ORD & YYZ. This here covers 2/3 of the underserved north america routes as the A350 wouldn't reach ORD completely non stop unless it was the ULR version which all frames are used on EWR alone.

ORD2010 wrote:
I’d love to see SQ, would SIN-ICN-ORD work? Whatever happened to the rumored Philippines route?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 3:34 am
by Planeboy17
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).

They did change up the schedule for a few years. They had the similar schedule as now ( evening arrival and midnight departure ) when they first started service around 15 years ago ?
Then they changed to morning arrival noonish departure for a few years but went back to the evening/midnight flight.
It never seemed like a very successful flight even though they’ve been at ORD like I stated around 15 years I think. It would go daily and then back to 5 a week, back to daily then back to 5 a week and competing with Korean who has flown the route for close to 30 years now.
Also, there never seemed like much collaboration between UA and OZ.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 4:11 am
by n2dru
Does anyone know the top O&D markets to ICN from the US? Where is ORD on that list?

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 4:11 am
by LAX772LR
B752OS wrote:
Outside of NYC, SF and LA, that has to be the largest amount of Asian service by foreign carriers.

Sounds about right:
not counting the outgoing OZ, ORD has 13 Asian carriers flying nonstop.... ahead of SEA's 10, with NH, OZ, CX, EK, BR, HU, JL, KE, MF, and SQ starting in the fall.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 8:07 am
by ITSTours
n2dru wrote:
Does anyone know the top O&D markets to ICN from the US? Where is ORD on that list?


LAX absolutely. 4x daily A380s at the peak. Then JFK, SFO, SEA, and ORD, and then ATL. Actually not sure about ATL and ORD.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 8:10 am
by ITSTours
Planeboy17 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).

They did change up the schedule for a few years. They had the similar schedule as now ( evening arrival and midnight departure ) when they first started service around 15 years ago ?
Then they changed to morning arrival noonish departure for a few years but went back to the evening/midnight flight.
It never seemed like a very successful flight even though they’ve been at ORD like I stated around 15 years I think. It would go daily and then back to 5 a week, back to daily then back to 5 a week and competing with Korean who has flown the route for close to 30 years now.
Also, there never seemed like much collaboration between UA and OZ.


The collaboration with UA only resumed in March 2017 when the codeshare agreement was placed. But again, the schedules don't really work.

Re: Asiana's Seoul-Chicago suspension

Posted: Sat May 11, 2019 10:45 am
by ronmk1986
ITSTours wrote:
ronmk1986 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
Asiana's Chicago schedule was during nighttime, so the connection basically did not work. Some of the connections required overnight stay, and for most of them the final arrival was late night (10PM-1AM). This means they had to rely on O&D which is not very significant due to smaller Korean diaspora in greater Chicago area.

Still the Chicago suspension means there is no more city where Asiana can fly. If they can't make Chicago then they can't make DMV, Atlanta, Houston, etc. They need to cut the cost and possibly reduce seat capacity to return to Chicago (though they don't have smaller longhaul equipment like 787-9).


That may explain another OZ’s disadvantage in ORD.

I know both the main customer source for KE and OZ in North American routes are ethnic Koreans, but what about other North Asian carriers in Japan (NH, JL) and Mainland China (CA, MU, or CZ) in their North American routes? Ethnic traffics as well?


Japanese for sure. Japanese people have very strong preferences for their flag carriers. And their premium classes are often full due to large numbers of business travelers.
This is another weakness of Asiana that it suffers from the lack of business travelers.


I thought Japanese carriers do not heavily rely on the outbound traffics from Japan as I’ve seen many Japanese passengers in KE, OZ, UA, or DL, but I guess I was wrong.

One thing I found is Koreans have very strong preference for KE and OZ. Maybe that is because of the language or cultural barrier for them, but I found quite a few Koreans think Korean carriers are the best airlines in the world.