I haven't forgotten the E-175 backlog. It is the only reason Embraer is still viable. I'm shocked they are going forward with the current E2-175. I understand keeping the design team going and there is a flight test team ready. But no viable customer.
513 in US scope clause airlines plus 26 at Horizon (no 86,000 lb limit).
Do you think the reason Horizon hasn't gone E2 is that they don't want to be stuck with an orphaned frame? Because my theory at one point was that Embraer was going to launch via Horizon the 175E2, and then use that as pressure for the other airlines to relax scope because who would want to compete with a double digit % more efficient regional jet with the previous generation? Don't know if that was ever even on the table but it felt like the one place they might have an entrance .
Financing will be dependent on other orders.
However, Horizon isn't enough of a threat for scope clause relaxation. 26 of an airframe means having to buy on extra just for the time waiting for Embraer's specific spares. It just isn't possible to make stuff economically in batches less than 25. Vendors insist on one batch minimum per year or prices triple. So for small fleet support, someone is buying surplus spares.
This is why business jets share so many parts. A latitude has a sovereign wing. A longitude a Hawker wing. Neither optimal, but both sell. An MRJ has a number of c-series parts that are rediculous sizings.
Because of this, the custom E2 subsystems will save some fuel and should have great maintenance properties. But you won't have spares. Some parts you need the number of flying planes times 4% per year. Some 17%. Wear parts such as tires, brakes, and seals are different. E.g., Wear parts are still in production or rebuild for the MD-80, but good luck finding an anti-ice valve except from a recently scrapped airframe as functioning spares are now rare. Boeing paid vendors to keep 717 parts in production for spares; payments of several million per airframe for tiny numbers flying.
It takes 400+ examples to keep spare rebuilds going. For lessor opperating numbers, someone pays the vendors. Note, easier for quads as they need twice the parts.
(They need only 200 flying examples).
No airline wants an orphan. That is why most airlines will not buy a type until 400+ examples have sold. Hence, launch pricing.
This is why DL received a great offer from Bombardier. UA was offered a great deal too, they just chose incredibly discounted 737s.
Mitsubishi is accepting reality and taking the Mulligan. Embraer's needs to also.
I see a market for a thousand to 1500 frames.
A great example is the E2-190/195 struggles to sell. They are great concepts. But to get MRO support, a decent size US or EU order is required. Each engine requires a separate MRO certification. So to maintain a PW1700, even if super related to the PW1200, takes volume. See V2500 D5 on DL's MD-90s. A fleet of sixty cannot support economical engine overhauls (although shipping to/from Christchurch is an absurd added expense). DL bet others would buy A220s to support their MRO shop. Even DL's expected fleet of 125 A220s is too little. They are counting on JetBlue, Moxy, and as yet unknown additional work (split with Mirabel's shop).
Automation forces larger economies of scale.
Winter is coming.