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CFM565A1
Posts: 388
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2017 7:19 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 3:20 am

rikkus67 wrote:
CFM565A1 wrote:
Once again the jealous Tealaid people of the world are whining. They're going "oh boo hoo the competition is gone now" but then would be the ones celebrating if Onex bought Transat or Porter and merged them into WS or WEN. :lol: :roll:


Less to do with Tealaid, and more to do with the decreased competition. Competition-wise, it would be a no-brainer that an Onex deal would make much better sense to the Canadian traveller.

But hey, if everyone is OK with the possibility of "Taco Bell being the only restaurant left"... go ahead and celebrate.


Nah,

As stated, Transat has a very limited domestic network in Canada. It's really Teal vs Red in that department with a little Martian Slime Green. Transat opens up more leisure destination slots that AC and WS couldn't secure. There is not a measurable decrease in competition if you look at how diverse YYZ and YUL are with other carriers (see YYZ T3); they are where TS does most of their flying. You cannot use YYC or those smaller irrelevant markets as proof of lack of competition... too small a sample size for intl traffic that TS runs.
Flown: C172-M/N/P/R/S , P2006T, PA-34-200T, DH8A/C Been on: B1900D, DH8A/C ERJ-145, CRJ-100/200, DH8D, CRJ-700/705/900, E-175/190, A319/320/321, 737-200/300/400/600/700/800/900ER/M8, MD-82/83, 757-200/300, 767-300, A330-300, 787-9, 777-300ER, F28-4000.
 
berari
Posts: 786
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:05 am

So, here is what I speculate:
- AC to keep the companies separate, at least for a specified period
- TS to start shutting down service to European destinations
- TS to focus on sun and vacation destinations
- TS vacation operations to be rebranded or folded into Air Canada Vacations [I think this is what TS offers the most to AC]
- Either a third brand (AC, Rouge, AC Vacations) is maintained or Rouge will start flying all AC Vacations related flights pending labour renegotiations
- Whatever TS aircraft can be integrated into AC will be integrated, well, that's just 4 A333s. If AC intends to keep Rouge operate single aisle Airbii, then it will have the TS A321s to work with. The rest is good to toss out, unless Rouge also takes the A332s.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5390
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 6:32 am

I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.
 
SwissCanuck
Posts: 151
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 8:06 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 7:39 am

wrongwayup wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
So that leaves Canada with two major players, Air Canada and WestJet?


Well, on sun routes, there's still three with Sunwing. To Europe, I'd argue not much as changed as since Zoom's demise, it's been an AC/TS duopoly, while now it'll still be a duopoly, but WS will be the 2nd Canadian player. Who knows, maybe at some point Sunwing will get into the summer transatlantic game. If the MAX ever flies again, they could ETOPS their MAXes and go transatlantic from YYZ and points east without the addition of a new aircraft type. As well, WG are a strong 3rd in the sun market at YUL and arguably tops at YQB vs TS on sun routes and vs nonexistent WS.

Also on sun routes, there may be a 4th still with Flair as they finally seem to be getting their house in order and learned some big lessons from last winter.


Transatlantic is not a duopoly at all. I count no less than 12 European airlines flying to YYZ and 11 to YUL, as an example.


That number drops significantly if you take joint ventures into account .
 
Aircellist
Posts: 1527
Joined: Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:43 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 12:41 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


The irony of what you suggest is that TS was indeed founded by former members of Quebecair…
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
Texas77
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:42 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 4:16 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


1990 holiday flight. love it!
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5390
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Jun 28, 2019 5:25 pm

Aircellist wrote:
SCQ83 wrote:
I have never been a fan of Air Transat. It screams "1990 holiday flight".

Maybe they should change the name to Air Quebec and focus on YUL. Something like Ryanair and Lauda (Austria/Germany). Although I know that would be hard because of politics, it would be interesting they keep two different products out of YUL and YYZ.


The irony of what you suggest is that TS was indeed founded by former members of Quebecair…


I had no idea!

Air Quebec sounds chic. Maybe Air Canada YYZ/YVR could become something like BA/LHR and Air Quebec/YUL something like Aer Lingus/DUB. Just an armchair thought.
 
max999
Posts: 1132
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2005 11:05 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:35 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... high-fares

The Guardian: Canadians are paying sky-high prices for flights – and merger could make it worse

Air Canada’s planned C$520m purchase of Air Transat could be bad news for passengers who already pay double what Americans do

--------

Canadian airlines are tough to threaten, because the federal government works hard to keep foreign competitors at bay, says Geloso. Loosening restrictions on foreign airline ownership or operation could drive down domestic airline prices while enabling the carrier to operate a greater network of feeder routes to overseas destinations.

--------

Furthermore, the Canadian government owns the majority of the country’s airports, and leases them to local airport authorities. Most regional markets have only one airport, which keeps the number of available gates low. And fewer gates means higher prices, the cost of which gets passed on to consumers.

“All of these factors amount to massive protections for any incumbent firm on the Canadian market,” says Geloso. “[For a monopoly], they’re the perfect ingredients.”
All the things I really like to do are either immoral, illegal, or fattening.
 
 
SpaceshipDC10
Posts: 6429
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:15 pm

Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."
 
queb
Posts: 1014
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:10 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:57 pm

SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."


Many thinks Onex is behind the Group Mach (Mach for the hotel business and Onex for the airline)

https://www.wingsoverquebec.com/?p=8774
 
robsaw
Posts: 426
Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2008 7:14 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 07, 2019 4:40 pm

queb wrote:
SpaceshipDC10 wrote:
Rejected Transat bidder Group Mach trying to buy enough shares to block Air Canada takeover

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/group- ... -1.5237204


In the proxy circular sent to its shareholders for the Aug. 23 vote, Transat A.T. raised doubts about the real estate group's ability to meet its commitments, particularly in terms of financing.

While "Group Mach CEO Vincent Chiara says that it believes Air Canada under-values Transat, that its sale process to Air Canada was flawed and that Air Canada's offer creates uncertainty for Transat employees and its head office."


Many thinks Onex is behind the Group Mach (Mach for the hotel business and Onex for the airline)

https://www.wingsoverquebec.com/?p=8774


People are free to "think" what they want but credibility of such an opinion is lacking because - If Onex is involved, and wants only the Air Transat piece, and there is a committed financial obligation, and unconditional side-deal, and such an agreement between Onex and Group Mach is undisclosed that would be rather risky as Onex, given their pending ownership of WestJet, would still be subject to a Competition Bureau ruling on the acquisition.
 
codyul
Posts: 69
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:27 am

YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
westaust
Posts: 30
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:05 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 13, 2019 2:26 pm

There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat
 
TObound
Posts: 311
Joined: Mon May 27, 2019 12:54 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 13, 2019 3:30 pm

westaust wrote:
There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat


That's a very interesting play. Maybe they should get Delta involved too. WS but surely moving into the AFKL-DL-VS and SkyTeam orbit.
 
queb
Posts: 1014
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 2010 3:10 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:38 pm

westaust wrote:
There are rumours that WestJet and Air France are both interested to submit a bid for Air Transat, no details if it's separate bids or together as there is a maximum ownership of 49% by foreign companies for airlines in Canada, or if such plans are still of interest following AC increased offer.

Article in french: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2019/08/12/ ... ar-transat


Pierre-Karl Péladeau (Quebecor CEO who own the news channel TVA in the previous post ;) ) would also be involved in talks with Air France and Westjet.

in french: https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entrep ... estjet.php
 
jimbo737
Posts: 437
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:18 pm

The AC proposal still needs to wind its way through the Competition Bureau and the politicos.....in an election year.

It’s far from a slam dunk given the significant impact such a merger would have on the competitive landscape in Canada and in YUL / Quebec in particular.

The only thing keeping fares reasonable in YUL and on the TATL was the presence of Transat in the marketplace, who could make it work because even they had a modest amount of domestic feed available to them, which is vital for success outside the best 22 weeks of the year.

No airline outside Canada has access to Cdn domestic feed. US airlines have learned that with very rare exceptions, if it doesn’t touch a hub, they don’t fly it, meaning that outside MIA, all US flying to the sun is one stop vs non stop available to Cdn domiciled carriers.

AC has been very aggressive defending the Quebec market from any profit driven domestic interlopers, to the point that WJ discontinued YUL - FLL, even with 90%+ l/f’s according to US DoT stats.

Expecting any new entrant, all of which are based west of Winnipeg, and 2 of which remain paper airlines, to be able to do what WJ has been unable to do over the last 20 years, even with a significant lower cost base than AC, and a fleet of 160+ aircraft, is absurd.

AC further tying up YUL further consolidates an already dominant position in the market, something I suspect will trouble the Bureau.

A WS / AF / Skyteam purchase of Transat, with each taking the bits and pieces that make sense to each of them makes a theoretical degree of sense, provided there’s a realistic expectation of what happens from a head office perspective.

I can’t see WS being interested in any of the Airbus wide bodies.

It would certainly ensure a better competitive landscape than the alternative of AC continuing its strategy of reducing consumer choice / macro capacity to drive yields and profits higher.

It’s a nice offering price, but if it isn’t approved by the Bureau, it’s a moot point.

It’ll be interesting to watch unfold.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2259
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:25 pm

Step 1 complete. TS shareholders approve the takeover: https://www.news957.com/business/2019/0 ... mpetition/
 
User avatar
767333ER
Posts: 981
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:14 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:54 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
The AC proposal still needs to wind its way through the Competition Bureau and the politicos.....in an election year.

It’s far from a slam dunk given the significant impact such a merger would have on the competitive landscape in Canada and in YUL / Quebec in particular.

The only thing keeping fares reasonable in YUL and on the TATL was the presence of Transat in the marketplace, who could make it work because even they had a modest amount of domestic feed available to them, which is vital for success outside the best 22 weeks of the year.

No airline outside Canada has access to Cdn domestic feed. US airlines have learned that with very rare exceptions, if it doesn’t touch a hub, they don’t fly it, meaning that outside MIA, all US flying to the sun is one stop vs non stop available to Cdn domiciled carriers.

AC has been very aggressive defending the Quebec market from any profit driven domestic interlopers, to the point that WJ discontinued YUL - FLL, even with 90%+ l/f’s according to US DoT stats.

Expecting any new entrant, all of which are based west of Winnipeg, and 2 of which remain paper airlines, to be able to do what WJ has been unable to do over the last 20 years, even with a significant lower cost base than AC, and a fleet of 160+ aircraft, is absurd.

AC further tying up YUL further consolidates an already dominant position in the market, something I suspect will trouble the Bureau.

A WS / AF / Skyteam purchase of Transat, with each taking the bits and pieces that make sense to each of them makes a theoretical degree of sense, provided there’s a realistic expectation of what happens from a head office perspective.

I can’t see WS being interested in any of the Airbus wide bodies.

It would certainly ensure a better competitive landscape than the alternative of AC continuing its strategy of reducing consumer choice / macro capacity to drive yields and profits higher.

It’s a nice offering price, but if it isn’t approved by the Bureau, it’s a moot point.

It’ll be interesting to watch unfold.

Sour green grapes right here folks. ^^

The Quebec guys make the Alberta guys mad once again even though they’re just different sides of the same coin
Been on: 732 733 734 73G 738 752 763 A319 A320 A321 CRJ CR7 CRA/CR9 E145 E175 E190 F28 MD-82 MD-83 C172R C172S P2006T
 
jimbo737
Posts: 437
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:44 pm

AC can offer $50 a share if they want and get Transat’s shareholders approval of the same but it means nothing until the regulators have had their say and have laid out the terms and conditions of the merger.

It’s an election year. It may take a while. There’s no urgency as Transat is very much a going concern.

Given the significant impact the merger will have on the competitive landscape within Canada when it comes to domestic TATL competition, especially outside typical gateway markets, not to mention the virtual eradication of competition on n/s options for sun flying from Quebec and a serious reduction in consumer choice elsewhere in Canada, It is unlikely the deal will go ahead without some pretty significant undertakings and restrictions demanded by the regulators.

It remains to be seen whether such undertakings would be deemed palatable by AC. Until we see more clarity on this, it’s hard to get particularly excited about the proposed deal.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 1763
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:08 pm

jimbo737 wrote:
AC can offer $50 a share if they want and get Transat’s shareholders approval of the same but it means nothing until the regulators have had their say and have laid out the terms and conditions of the merger.

It’s an election year. It may take a while. There’s no urgency as Transat is very much a going concern.

Given the significant impact the merger will have on the competitive landscape within Canada when it comes to domestic TATL competition, especially outside typical gateway markets, not to mention the virtual eradication of competition on n/s options for sun flying from Quebec and a serious reduction in consumer choice elsewhere in Canada, It is unlikely the deal will go ahead without some pretty significant undertakings and restrictions demanded by the regulators.

It remains to be seen whether such undertakings would be deemed palatable by AC. Until we see more clarity on this, it’s hard to get particularly excited about the proposed deal.


Never heard of "domestic TATL competition". Whatever it is, it's irrelevant to Competition Bureau's considerations. Their job is to look at competition in the market writ large, not how many "Canadian" airlines Canadians can choose from on routes that might have foreign alternatives.

Either way, putting too much faith in CB's influence. Canadian aviation isn't like other sectors CB looks at. They're longstanding proponents of Open Skies, yet Canada still has one of the the most restrictive approaches to international competition in the developed world. There is far higher level of corporate influence/regulatory capture in Canadian aviation than in other sectors (ask the pilots here about the revised flight duty rules). I expect that CB's review will amount to little more than checking the procedural box. They will offer recommendations. Those recommendations will, more likely than not, be ignored.

In the unlikely event that it becomes an election issue, the argument in favour has already written itself. It'll be an emotive appeal to "save (CA/QC) jobs", as opposed to less tangible issues like prices (nobody knows how much they will go up, and everyone likes thinking they're charitable enough to pay a "little" more to save someone's job when they can't see the price tag) or competition, notwithstanding the fact that those jobs will go in the weeks/months that follow regardless.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 437
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:13 am

As expected, Air Canada's shareholder-approved deal to buy Transat A.T. will undergo a 250-day public interest assessment.

As I’ve been suggesting, this deal is by no means a slam dunk.

It might very well get approved with various conditions and undertakings, but the competitive cost of doing so might not be worth it to AC.

No matter what happens, I suspect AC will know more about what makes TS tick than TS knows itself.

Perhaps that’s the ultimate goal. It wouldn’t be the first time AC has looked to acquire / do deals with domestic competitors and walked away after taking a a good hard stare under the kimono.
 
jmt18325
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat May 07, 2016 6:08 pm

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:36 am

This merger really seems to scare Westjet.
 
jimbo737
Posts: 437
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:18 am

Re: Confirmed: Air Canada to buy Air Transat

Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:01 pm

A 250 day (!) consultative period, and then the inevitable numerous and likely tardy “final reports” thereafter authored by various ministerial / parliamentary committees and agencies, obviously including the Competition Bureau, would strongly indicate the deal seems to scare the regulators and the folks in the high castles in Ottawa.

One can’t go more than a couple of days in Canada these days without a major media outlet writing another story on an airline in Canada somehow “screwing” the consumer.

I’m not sure what the end game is for some of these journalists, other than typical leftie, “more government regulation and oversight is required” solution.

Most of the media stories are, IMO, nonsense, but perception is reality and the airline file, and the supposed abuse of the Canadian consumer by airlines is incredibly top of mind in Canada, far more so than say, the US and is an easy “motherhood and apple pie” issue to latch on to. You can’t go wrong beating up on the airlines in Canada if you’re a politician especially in an election year and in the critical first year after an election.

I’d wager there is zero chance of the deal going ahead without a number of onerous (at least to some), conditions and undertakings, as was the case in the last large “merger” 20 years ago.

In that instance, CP couldn’t even make their next payroll so there was a massive sense of urgency to get things done and protect jobs. There’s no such urgency today.

What will the conditions look like?

I could suggest all kinds of things to mitigate the impact of further industry concentration that will certainly be demanded by various camps, some of which will definitely be implemented and some not.

AC will have to determine if the cost of the deal and conditions demanded by the various regulators / govt agencies to approve it make any sense to them.

I would imagine they’ll be some very interesting discussions down the road amongst both the obvious players and perhaps some less obvious players.

If I were a Transat shareholder, I would be be very wary of the old adage that “pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered”.

I’d take the money and run. Sell now as there is no guarantee the current deal will be approved by all parties and if so, any subsequent deal that meets gov’t approvals could quite easily result in a considerable “close back and sides” haircut on the current offering price.
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