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Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:38 pm
by yulguy
It's the second major airline acquisition in Canada this week!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... -1.5138180

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:40 pm
by maps4ltd
yulguy wrote:
It's the second major airline acquisition in Canada this week!

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/air-ca ... -1.5138180


Talk about "out of left field."

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:42 pm
by hOMSaR
I know this absolutely is not going to happen, but my one request anyway: Hang onto the A310s a little longer, and fly them on some domestic Canadian or transborder US routes so I can fly on them and get *A credit.

You can retire them the next day, and proceed business as usual from that point.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:43 pm
by SpaceshipDC10
Will be interesting how leisure fleet will evolve, especially on the wide-body side.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:43 pm
by GCT64
I guess: Air Canada Bleu ;-)

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:44 pm
by SpaceshipDC10
GCT64 wrote:
I guess: Air Canada Bleu ;-)


:rotfl: Excellent.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:45 pm
by enilria
They should just buy WestJet and eliminate the rest of that pesky competition that they will tell regulators consumers hate.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:46 pm
by Pudelhund
And the consolidation continues...

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:46 pm
by yulguy
Just after the WestJet announcement, there were hints that Onex was going to buy Transat. It looks like AC beat them to the punch.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:47 pm
by enilria
I think the new owner of WestJet is unlikely to have the company reverse course toward being a ULCC. It is more likely they will become more of a legacy with the associated pricing. Coupled with this acquisition it would seem Canada fares are going to go up a lot.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:51 pm
by JannEejit
enilria wrote:
I think the new owner of WestJet is unlikely to have the company reverse course toward being a ULCC. It is more likely they will become more of a legacy with the associated pricing. Coupled with this acquisition it would seem Canada fares are going to go up a lot.


Yes, there would seem to be some 'competition stripping' going on.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 12:55 pm
by AC_B777
I hope AC keeps the A321NEO order and tops them up! I can see some kind of deal with Airbus to dump the A310's and the A332's for more 321N's.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:01 pm
by JAmie2k9

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:03 pm
by eta unknown
So we are now returning back to the days of Mapleflot...

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:05 pm
by Dominion301
Wow it's been quite the week in the Canadian airline industry. I wonder if the TS brand will disappear or if TS will become AC's leisure carrier with Rouge disappearing? Either way, they won't want to keep two separate leisure brands for long.

The prospect of 321LRs at AC is exciting. No doubt on any route where AC and TS currently compete, there will be frequency increase without any new capacity, thereby allowing for other capacity to be redeployed elsewhere.

I guess that means AC can MAXify YQB-CDG and make it daily in the summer. Wonder if they'd now be in a position to do the same on YOW-CDG as you've gotta think there will be some YUL-CDG capacity cut in order to boost yields.

eta unknown wrote:
So we are now returning back to the days of Mapleflot...


More like the days of AC vs CP.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:07 pm
by LH748
GCT64 wrote:
I guess: Air Canada Bleu ;-)


:rotfl: you win today

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:08 pm
by samuelx88
Are they going to keep TS hubs and bases at YYZ, YVR, YYC and YQB or they will all connect in YUL instead for transatlantic flights? Because the official press release mentions YUL many times without mentioning other airports.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:09 pm
by downdata
And then there were....

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:11 pm
by yulexpansion
samuelx88 wrote:
Are they going to keep TS hubs and bases at YYZ, YVR, YYC and YQB or they will all connect in YUL instead for transatlantic flights? Because the official press release mentions YUL many times without mentioning other airports.


TS only has hubs at YUL/YYZ. Their presence at YVR/YYC/YQB isn't nearly important enough to qualify as a base.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:15 pm
by Thenoflyzone
YUL will become a fortress hub.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:15 pm
by SpaceshipDC10
samuelx88 wrote:
Are they going to keep TS hubs and bases at YYZ, YVR, YYC and YQB or they will all connect in YUL instead for transatlantic flights? Because the official press release mentions YUL many times without mentioning other airports.


YUL is mentioned at least because both airlines are headquartered at Montreal. Neither AC Mainline or Rouge cross the Atlantic only from YUL. Perhaps YQB service is in danger, but that remains to be seen.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:17 pm
by enilria
eta unknown wrote:
So we are now returning back to the days of Mapleflot...

All the U.S. border airports are excited about the influx of air travel refugees (economic migrants to the Caribbean via Buffalo in January) this is going to bring!

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:17 pm
by slcdeltarumd11
Big boost for YUL. Might have a real negative impact on leisure destination ticket prices. One less low cost provider out there.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:33 pm
by beechnut
Wow... but I had a sneaking suspicion that this would happen. The fleets should integrate well; the A330s with the existing AC 330 fleet, all RR powered, and the 321s are a natural fit as well. The 321LR are an interesting acquisition. My prediction? AC will never take up its order for the MAX 9, but will pick up more 321NEOs and LRs. What happens to Rouge is going to be interesting to watch. Its fleet of 767s is long in the tooth. All the major delays I've incurred on AC in recent years were tech delays on the Rouge 767 and AC Mainline 767 fleets. Maybe AC Rouge becomes Air Canada Transat as their LCC wing, the A330s find their way there, along with the 321 classics; the 321LR goes over to mainline and the order gets topped up at the expense of the MAX 9. Maybe a deal is worked out with Boeing to take a few more 789 options at a rock-bottom price; consolation to Boeing for canceling the MAX 9 order, and compensation to AC for the MAX 8 grounding.

Rumours of the demise of Airbus at AC have been greatly exaggerated...

Beech

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:34 pm
by OzarkD9S
So will Onex SWOOP in and buy Sunwing now?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:38 pm
by AirwayBill
As long as they don't speed up the already planned A310 retirement, I'm fine with that.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:39 pm
by by738
Not great on the foreign ports where both happily compete. There are a few where ACr and TS compete. But I suppose AC have a bigger network and can offer more than those on VFR holiday vacations.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:40 pm
by Dominion301
beechnut wrote:
Wow... but I had a sneaking suspicion that this would happen. The fleets should integrate well; the A330s with the existing AC 330 fleet, all RR powered, and the 321s are a natural fit as well. The 321LR are an interesting acquisition. My prediction? AC will never take up its order for the MAX 9, but will pick up more 321NEOs and LRs. What happens to Rouge is going to be interesting to watch. Its fleet of 767s is long in the tooth. All the major delays I've incurred on AC in recent years were tech delays on the Rouge 767 and AC Mainline 767 fleets. Maybe AC Rouge becomes Air Canada Transat as their LCC wing, the A330s find their way there, along with the 321 classics; the 321LR goes over to mainline and the order gets topped up at the expense of the MAX 9. Maybe a deal is worked out with Boeing to take a few more 789 options at a rock-bottom price; consolation to Boeing for canceling the MAX 9 order, and compensation to AC for the MAX 8 grounding.

Rumours of the demise of Airbus at AC have been greatly exaggerated...

Beech


Yeah that's true. Fleet integration will be perfect. If AC reconfigure the 332s into a mainline layout, you're probably looking at around 240 seats, which is the perfect replacement for the remaining mainline 211 seat 767s for YOW-FRA, YOW-LHR and YYC-NRT. It throws the 333 vs 788 debate out the window, which still giving all those routes a much more modest capacity boost.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:44 pm
by SpaceshipDC10
I'm curious to see which Air Transat routes will be dropped. First that comes to mind as an unknown is BSL. Will AC keep it or concentrate on GVA/ZrH?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:52 pm
by Speedalive
Wonder if the A332's are better suited for mainline or replacing 763's at Rouge.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:56 pm
by x1234
NOTHING like buying out your competition and drastically raising prices!

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 1:57 pm
by yulexpansion
Speedalive wrote:
Wonder if the A332's are better suited for mainline or replacing 763's at Rouge.


At 345 seats, it's a 22% capacity increase over the 282 seat Rouge 763. Seems perfect for some high volume destinations like BCN/ATH/VCE but slightly too large for others.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:01 pm
by Speedalive
yulexpansion wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
Wonder if the A332's are better suited for mainline or replacing 763's at Rouge.


At 345 seats, it's a 22% capacity increase over the 282 seat Rouge 763. Seems perfect for some high volume destinations like BCN/ATH/VCE but slightly too large for others.

That's what I was thinking. There is only 16 of them though so maybe it would be a 332/763 mix for the time being until a better replacement comes into play. Will be interesting to watch.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:01 pm
by cirrusdragoon
i wonder how the competition bureau will respond with this?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:02 pm
by IADCA
I wouldn't like to be at the Competition Bureau and be seeing this filing in a couple weeks. They've already had it up to their eyeballs with airlines recently.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:07 pm
by Polot
Speedalive wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
Wonder if the A332's are better suited for mainline or replacing 763's at Rouge.


At 345 seats, it's a 22% capacity increase over the 282 seat Rouge 763. Seems perfect for some high volume destinations like BCN/ATH/VCE but slightly too large for others.

That's what I was thinking. There is only 16 of them though so maybe it would be a 332/763 mix for the time being until a better replacement comes into play. Will be interesting to watch.


You guys realize that by shifting A332s (along with A321LRs) over to mainline or Rouge you are advocating that AC completely gut Air Transat’s network, right?

Air Transat only has 14 A321LRs on order, and still has 7 A310s to get rid of. If you start moving everything around and also replace the remaining 767s what exactly is going to fly Air Transat’s current routes?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:12 pm
by keesje
[photoid][/photoid]Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots, 20 A330s and 7 A310s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.

24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:15 pm
by Polot
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:15 pm
by IADCA
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025


There is very little chance of this deal proceeding fast enough to meaningfully impact the MAX shortage unless the MAX is grounded into next year.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:17 pm
by Speedalive
Polot wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:

At 345 seats, it's a 22% capacity increase over the 282 seat Rouge 763. Seems perfect for some high volume destinations like BCN/ATH/VCE but slightly too large for others.

That's what I was thinking. There is only 16 of them though so maybe it would be a 332/763 mix for the time being until a better replacement comes into play. Will be interesting to watch.


You guys realize that by shifting A332s (along with A321LRs) over to mainline or Rouge you are advocating that AC completely gut Air Transat’s network, right?

Air Transat only has 14 A321LRs on order, and still has 7 A310s to get rid of. If you start moving everything around and also replace the remaining 767s what exactly is going to fly Air Transat’s current routes?

Touche :lol:

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:18 pm
by tphuang
this seems like a terrible deal for Quebec that should not be allowed to proceed.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:23 pm
by keesje
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:23 pm
by cirrusdragoon
tphuang wrote:
this seems like a terrible deal for Quebec that should not be allowed to proceed.


why so?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:26 pm
by cumulushumilis
Polot wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
yulexpansion wrote:

At 345 seats, it's a 22% capacity increase over the 282 seat Rouge 763. Seems perfect for some high volume destinations like BCN/ATH/VCE but slightly too large for others.

That's what I was thinking. There is only 16 of them though so maybe it would be a 332/763 mix for the time being until a better replacement comes into play. Will be interesting to watch.


You guys realize that by shifting A332s (along with A321LRs) over to mainline or Rouge you are advocating that AC completely gut Air Transat’s network, right?

Air Transat only has 14 A321LRs on order, and still has 7 A310s to get rid of. If you start moving everything around and also replace the remaining 767s what exactly is going to fly Air Transat’s current routes?



That’s mostly what will happen. AC will most likely strip AT of its assets, fold it into Rouge and Mainline. I don’t see much growth out of this if any.. This play is more about keeping Onex from getting their hands on AT and creating a beach head in Eastern Canada. I don’t think acquiring AT was in Onex’s plans.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:27 pm
by Noise
tphuang wrote:
this seems like a terrible deal for Quebec that should not be allowed to proceed.


LOL what?

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:30 pm
by Polot
cumulushumilis wrote:
Polot wrote:
Speedalive wrote:
That's what I was thinking. There is only 16 of them though so maybe it would be a 332/763 mix for the time being until a better replacement comes into play. Will be interesting to watch.


You guys realize that by shifting A332s (along with A321LRs) over to mainline or Rouge you are advocating that AC completely gut Air Transat’s network, right?

Air Transat only has 14 A321LRs on order, and still has 7 A310s to get rid of. If you start moving everything around and also replace the remaining 767s what exactly is going to fly Air Transat’s current routes?



That’s mostly what will happen. AC will most likely strip AT of its assets, fold it into Rouge and Mainline. I don’t see much growth out of this if any.. This play is more about keeping Onex from getting their hands on AT and creating a beach head in Eastern Canada. I don’t think acquiring AT was in Onex’s plans.


I agree, and that’s why getting the acquisition through approvals will be tricky and not rushed through, contrary to the opinion of some others here. I’m just pointing out that not everyone is thinking things through and are gleefully getting worked up over the destruction of an airline.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:31 pm
by jbs2886
keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.


At most AC could have Air Transat operate some flights. Acquisitions don't move that swiftly, especially with regulators involved. It simply doesn't really matter if AC needs it to move fast, that's just not how it works.

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:43 pm
by IADCA
keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
keesje wrote:
Fleetwise, Air Canada bought themselves a bunch of early A321LR slots and 20 A330s.
Together with Rouge gives them some badly needed flexibility to move capacity around.
24 737 MAX grounded and hundreds of canclled flights in a booming market as we speak.

Image
https://twitter.com/Tobias_Gudat/status/1110236628646273025

The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.


The Competition Bureau alone has a 30-day initial waiting period that doesn't start until the deal is formally notified to them (and putting together those filings takes at least 2 weeks in a complex deal and usually longer), plus what is functionally an open-ended extension period that in practice is often six months or more when there are actual competition issues (hint: this is almost certainly one of these cases). You can't close until they give you permission. Note that this deal will also generate a whole host of ancillary regulatory filings that will also slow the process down, including filings outside of Canada.

jbs2886 wrote:
keesje wrote:
Polot wrote:
The 737Max will likely be back in the air before this deal closes and AC actually has control of Air Transat.

We are still in the exclusive talks stage- the two have not fully committed to a deal yet. Then it must pass all regulatory approvals.


If there are urgent needs, win-win, money drain & strong competition, things can move swiftly. This might be such a situation. https://www.fool.ca/2019/05/10/should-the-737-max-grounding-defer-your-air-canada-tsxac-investment/

AC Stock is bumping on this investment because they like AC taking action.


At most AC could have Air Transat operate some flights. Acquisitions don't move that swiftly, especially with regulators involved. It simply doesn't really matter if AC needs it to move fast, that's just not how it works.


Prior to Competition Bureau approval that would be an absolute no-no. Such pre-approval integration ("gun-jumping") has been a huge focus of enforcement in recent years in Canada, as well as the US and EU.

Re: Air Canada in exclusive talks to buy Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:47 pm
by Aircellist
The interesting part of it is that Air Transat was founded by transfuge pilots when Quebecair was folded into Nordair, which led through CPAir and PWA to Canadian, then to the AC merger… And, the first planes of TS were old AC Tristars. So, somehow, this is like closing the loop…

Re: Air Canada buying Air Transat

Posted: Thu May 16, 2019 2:47 pm
by longhauler
cumulushumilis wrote:
This play is more about keeping Onex from getting their hands on AT and creating a beach head in Eastern Canada. I don’t think acquiring AT was in Onex’s plans.


That was my thought as well. This is not about wanting Air Transat, but making sure no one else (with deep pockets) gets them.

This concept has occurred a lot in the past 30 or so years in Canada.