XT6Wagon
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 12:43 am

I'll believe it when we've had a decade of ground based "flight engineer" services to test and improve remote technology. Or its going into a 50 seat aircraft where the regulatory agencies care a whole lot less than a 200 seat aircraft. Or of course cargo aircraft where they really don't care in comparison to mainline passenger aircraft.
 
ORDfan
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 12:46 am

smartplane wrote:
They have to get insurance industry support. Based on the MAX 'saved' with a 3rd pilot on the flight deck, probably pressure for more flight crew, not less.


Agreed. I was thinking along the same lines...sometimes the more eyes, the better. Particularly if we think of today's 2nd pilot as a form of redundancy, if you will. Also had AF 447 on the brain, where the captain knew what was happening.
 
Bricktop
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:16 am

scbriml wrote:
Cockpits of the future will feature a single pilot and a dog. The pilot is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to bite the pilot if he touches any of the controls.

:rotfl:
 
ewt340
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:25 am

Yeah no, did you see what happen to MAX? I won't trust Boeing to implement this technology these days.
 
Elementalism
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:39 am

SierraPacific wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
pdp wrote:
This seems a bad idea.

A drone is fine in the desert, but 100s of souls flying into London is a different matter! Do pilots even make up a significant portion of a flight's costs?

I can't imagine how busy it'd be in the cockpit with one pilot trying to talk with ATC and fly in a very tightly packed area such as the London TMA!

You don’t think drones fly over cities?


Not the size of a 767 at 400 MPH, Drones do not interact with the airspace system and require hours of preplanning to launch a mission. The technology is just not practical for a commercial airliner and won't be for decades.

If you meant the RC quadcopters that have been labeled as drones then yes they do.


If they can get automated cars to work they can figure out an aircraft. It is less congested in the air than on the ground.
 
Elementalism
Posts: 466
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:44 am

VSMUT wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


You hit the nail on the head. The one-pilot concept is a fallacy.

UpNAWAy wrote:
We could of course fly without pilots now, the technology is there and ultimately it would be safer. Just as autonomous cars would reduce accidents by 90+% so might autonomous aircraft.

The hard part is not the technology but the getting there...regulatory, legal, public acceptance, etc. It will take generations for those reasons.


No, technology really isn't anywhere close to autonomous flight. It would be a stretch just to make aircraft fly autonomously under the best of conditions, completely impossible in more realistic conditions or with a systems failure thrown in. That isn't even including the inadequate ground facilities in many parts of the world. Autonomous flight would require a new way to communicate between controllers and aircraft, simple VHF sets no longer being up to the task.


The last flight refresher course my father went to last summer discussed automated cockpits and 1 pilot setups. The urgency now is the lack of pilots that is expected to get worse over the next 20 years.
Automated flight will most likely include an automated flight controller system. Right now systems are gathering data on driving patterns, algorithms being built for automated cars. Our streets will be treated like a network where our cars are packets being routed through the least congested links. Airplanes will be next.
 
Elementalism
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:50 am

XT6Wagon wrote:
I'll believe it when we've had a decade of ground based "flight engineer" services to test and improve remote technology. Or its going into a 50 seat aircraft where the regulatory agencies care a whole lot less than a 200 seat aircraft. Or of course cargo aircraft where they really don't care in comparison to mainline passenger aircraft.



What do you think the US military has been and is doing right now? Nearly 3 decades of testing remote control and autonomous vehicles. Their project 2030 that started 15 years ago is basically automating the military which includes vehicles that are unmanned moving around the battlefield to provide support to troops. Who is a huge military supplier of the US military? Boeing.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:52 am

[*]
ewt340 wrote:
Yeah no, did you see what happen to MAX? I won't trust Boeing to implement this technology these days.


Delete
Last edited by BoeingGuy on Tue May 21, 2019 2:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:53 am

ewt340 wrote:
Yeah no, did you see what happen to MAX? I won't trust Boeing to implement this technology these days.


That’s kind of a naive statement. You mean Boeing is incapable of implementing technology such as the 777X and other highly successful airplanes?
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:55 am

I’ll say it again. There are no current plans to design the NMA as a one-pilot airplane. It’s being designed for two-pilot operation.

Like others have stated. The necessary technology isn’t ready yet for this.

End of story.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:16 am

The whole article is a fraud, it's based off rumour, coming from quotes by "anonymous airline execs" not engineers, pilots or designers who know what they are talking about.

It's funny how the predictions of single pilot airliners never come from pilots, those who actually know how hard it is to automate the job, but rather design engineers, accountants or geeks sitting on their computer playing flight sim.

Elementalism wrote:
What do you think the US military has been and is doing right now? Nearly 3 decades of testing remote control and autonomous vehicles. Their project 2030 that started 15 years ago is basically automating the military which includes vehicles that are unmanned moving around the battlefield to provide support to troops. Who is a huge military supplier of the US military? Boeing.


The military has an interest in keeping human beings away from the aircraft. Passengers airliners don't so there's no incentive there.

VS11 wrote:
Such a development would be predicated on data communication between the aircraft and the ground ATC. What do you do if such communication is lost and the single pilot is incapacitated? Or in the case of no pilot, how would the aircraft be controlled? On top of this, it would require never failing electrical systems/batteries. The bulk of pilot training is emergency procedures. How is such a complicated collection of systems going to troubleshoot itself?


You would also have to ensure 100% guaranteed communication links from ground to air. Currently there are numerous places in airspace where VHF comms cutout or degrade, or where HF is used, or satellite blackouts or loss of visibility are common. You would also need to make these control links totally resistant to jamming from outside sources.

The required monetary spend on this system alone would eclipse the cost of simply paying pilots a bit more and covering the expensive cost of their training and then continuing with the two person flight deck. And the system would need to basically be in place worldwide within the next 10 years before the suppsoedly single pilot 797 or NMA comes into service. For financial, logistical, political reasons that's never going to happen

Heinkel wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Not. A. Chance.


When I did my first flight on a B737 in 1971, it had a three-man-cockpit. Real longhaul a/c had four or five. And today? Two-person flight deck is standard and safety has increased. The statistics don't lie.


The 737 has never had a 3 person flight deck. There is zero space to install a F/E panel. Some airlines may have operated them initially with a third pilot on the F/Deck for union demands, but that would've ended when it became obvious the third pilot didn't need to do anything at all.

Those roles (radio operator, navigator, flight engineer) weren't automated out of the aircraft, those roles were simply passed along to the pilots with the aid of automation. For instance the F/E and the non flying pilot used to action and crosscheck the engine fire drill. Now it's the flying and non flying pilots.

Elementalism wrote:
The last flight refresher course my father went to last summer discussed automated cockpits and 1 pilot setups. The urgency now is the lack of pilots that is expected to get worse over the next 20 years.


Simple solution - cover their training and pay them more to attract more candidates. It's basic economic supply and demand. It'll work out cheaper than total replacement of all airborne and ground based technology worldwide.

XT6Wagon wrote:
Or its going into a 50 seat aircraft where the regulatory agencies care a whole lot less than a 200 seat aircraft. Or of course cargo aircraft where they really don't care in comparison to mainline passenger aircraft.


The smaller 50 seat regional aircraft would be the most difficult to automate of all. They operate to smaller uncontrolled airports with no engineering support, more variable air and ground based traffic, smaller movements surfaces with less room for error. They cruise around 15-30'000ft in the worst part of most of the weather rather than above it.

Cargo aircraft? Most of them are ex passenger hand me downs that have reached the end of their passenger life.

scbriml wrote:
Cockpits of the future will feature a single pilot and a dog. The pilot is there to feed the dog. The dog is there to bite the pilot if he touches any of the controls.


I've heard that "joke" a million times. It wasn't funny the first time.
 
VSMUT
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:25 am

Elementalism wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


You hit the nail on the head. The one-pilot concept is a fallacy.

UpNAWAy wrote:
We could of course fly without pilots now, the technology is there and ultimately it would be safer. Just as autonomous cars would reduce accidents by 90+% so might autonomous aircraft.

The hard part is not the technology but the getting there...regulatory, legal, public acceptance, etc. It will take generations for those reasons.


No, technology really isn't anywhere close to autonomous flight. It would be a stretch just to make aircraft fly autonomously under the best of conditions, completely impossible in more realistic conditions or with a systems failure thrown in. That isn't even including the inadequate ground facilities in many parts of the world. Autonomous flight would require a new way to communicate between controllers and aircraft, simple VHF sets no longer being up to the task.


The last flight refresher course my father went to last summer discussed automated cockpits and 1 pilot setups. The urgency now is the lack of pilots that is expected to get worse over the next 20 years.
Automated flight will most likely include an automated flight controller system. Right now systems are gathering data on driving patterns, algorithms being built for automated cars. Our streets will be treated like a network where our cars are packets being routed through the least congested links. Airplanes will be next.


Cars aren't planes mate. An apples and grapes comparrison. You will need to develop the intelligent AI first.


Elementalism wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
You don’t think drones fly over cities?


Not the size of a 767 at 400 MPH, Drones do not interact with the airspace system and require hours of preplanning to launch a mission. The technology is just not practical for a commercial airliner and won't be for decades.

If you meant the RC quadcopters that have been labeled as drones then yes they do.


If they can get automated cars to work they can figure out an aircraft. It is less congested in the air than on the ground.


Bad analogy. Cars are infinitely easier to make autonomous. They operate in a basic 2-dimensional environment. Any failure will result in the car just coasting to a halt on the road.

Aircraft can't do that. They need to function with potentially any system on the aircraft failing, even a combination of systems. That would include the autopilot and sensors. Aircraft need to avoid traffic in 3 planes as well as weather. You need to teach the autonomous system how to avoid a building CB, so it doesn't get trapped in between several of them. It needs to know not to fly under the anvil of a TCU. That means by visual sight, because radars won't show anything under those circumstances. And it needs to do so WITH system failures.
Did you know that a sufficiently powerful thunderstorm can completely disrupt communications on VHF, and in particular HF? An autonomous airliner needs to be 100% self reliant.
 
airzona11
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:46 am

Economics, as well as the technology, will get us there someday. Redundancy can be engineered in. I think for smaller aircraft the form of the plane will change, different wing/engine configuration from our commercial jets of today.

All of the risk scenarios and potential for contagion from failure are a numbers game, it will just come down to building to a tolerance. Aviation is already incredibly safe, so that risk tolerance will be 99.99999 (manys 9s) but is not impossible.
 
B764er
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:50 am

A commercial jetliner can't have less than 2 engines, and can't have less that 2 pilots. The people behind these absurd ideas have obviously never piloted a commercial jetliner. They better not come up with this b.s. ever again.
 
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fraspotter
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 4:16 am

Flight engineers were taken out of the picture due to technology advances. That took us from 3 to 2. I don't see it going lower than that. Humans will always be imperfect machines and as such will need redundancies in place in the form of a second human. Autopilot helps but it is not meant to completely take one of the pilots out of the picture. Only way I could figure having a single person in the cockpit is if the plane is built to fly with none. Then you would still need that one person there ready to take the controls if the system fails. But that is a long ways off in terms of being implemented on passenger aircraft.
"The strength of the turbulence is directly proportional to the temperature of your coffee."

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GatorClark
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 4:38 am

3 reasons why this is a bad idea:
1. Silk Air 185
2. Germanwings 9525
3. EgyptAir 990

And just in case you dispute any of these:
Royal Air Maroc 630.
 
BoeingGuy
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 5:00 am

GatorClark wrote:
3 reasons why this is a bad idea:
1. Silk Air 185
2. Germanwings 9525
3. EgyptAir 990

And just in case you dispute any of these:
Royal Air Maroc 630.


What if the second pilot who is no longer in the flight deck is the one who would have crashed the airplane? Then it’s a really good idea.

Actually there aren’t great examples because the airplanes crashed anyway. I think there was a B6 incident where the non-disturbed pilot locked the bad one out and took control and made an emergency landing. That’s a good example of your point.
 
N91
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 5:17 am

I wouldn't be opposed. It will happen eventually; ultimately planes will all be fully autonomous. Likely not for a few generations though, people are too afraid of change so you will need big shift in the paradigm. It will have to happen with cars first.
 
speedbird52
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 5:19 am

VSMUT wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


You hit the nail on the head. The one-pilot concept is a fallacy.

UpNAWAy wrote:
We could of course fly without pilots now, the technology is there and ultimately it would be safer. Just as autonomous cars would reduce accidents by 90+% so might autonomous aircraft.

The hard part is not the technology but the getting there...regulatory, legal, public acceptance, etc. It will take generations for those reasons.


No, technology really isn't anywhere close to autonomous flight. It would be a stretch just to make aircraft fly autonomously under the best of conditions, completely impossible in more realistic conditions or with a systems failure thrown in. That isn't even including the inadequate ground facilities in many parts of the world. Autonomous flight would require a new way to communicate between controllers and aircraft, simple VHF sets no longer being up to the task.

Are you sure about that? We already have the technology to make a plane landitself, and fully vertically navigate by itself if programmed correctly. It's for when things go wrong that questions arise
 
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7BOEING7
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 5:19 am

Anybody thinking this (single pilot) can't possibly happen is like the proverbial ostrich -- sticking their head in the sand.

Even today after takeoff on a "normal" flight the only actions required by the pilot is raising and lowering the gear and flaps, setting climb and descent altitudes, setting approach information and speeds, selecting autobrakes and reverse thrust. With a little more automation and uplink capability most of this could be done with no pilot action what so ever. It will come in little bits and pieces until takeoff is automated, then its all over.

Single pilot monitors auto takeoff, gear retracts automatically when airborne, flaps retract automatically as speed increases, airplane flies FMS provided vertical and lateral profile, FMS accepts ATC uplinked modifications automatically, descent profile including altitudes, landing speeds and autobrake setting is uplinked, gear and flaps are extended automatically and the airplane makes an automatic landing, braking as necessary to clear at the ATC selected turn off. Much of this can be done already.
 
CanesFan
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 6:01 am

7BOEING7 wrote:
Anybody thinking this (single pilot) can't possibly happen is like the proverbial ostrich -- sticking their head in the sand.

Even today after takeoff on a "normal" flight the only actions required by the pilot is raising and lowering the gear and flaps, setting climb and descent altitudes, setting approach information and speeds, selecting autobrakes and reverse thrust. With a little more automation and uplink capability most of this could be done with no pilot action what so ever. It will come in little bits and pieces until takeoff is automated, then its all over.

Single pilot monitors auto takeoff, gear retracts automatically when airborne, flaps retract automatically as speed increases, airplane flies FMS provided vertical and lateral profile, FMS accepts ATC uplinked modifications automatically, descent profile including altitudes, landing speeds and autobrake setting is uplinked, gear and flaps are extended automatically and the airplane makes an automatic landing, braking as necessary to clear at the ATC selected turn off. Much of this can be done already.


“Normal” isn’t the issue here. Show me an autopilot that can handle an engine failure at V1 or perform a windshear escape maneuver, then we will be on a path toward single-pilot airline operations. And this doesn’t take into consideration judgement-related items such as avoiding towering cumulus clouds that aren’t painting on radar, etc. In light of current events, I’m surprised anyone at Boeing would be talking publicly about advances in aircraft automation technology.
Last edited by CanesFan on Tue May 21, 2019 6:18 am, edited 3 times in total.
 
ferren
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 6:09 am

current computers that are capable of very limited problem solving have weight more than all cargo and passangers and consume more power than engines can produce
 
uta999
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:21 am

Automation is great when it works. The trouble is it often doesn’t.

A huge Ocado distribution center in Andover UK, was totally destroyed by fire, when just one of the 22000 small robots caught fire.

How will the single pilot cope with the extra stress, a medical or mental event, failed engine, or flaps, pull a circuit breaker, lower the gear manually, divert due to weather, or even if he/she died suddenly.

A link to the ground is just something else that can and will go wrong.
Your computer just got better
 
BA777FO
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:42 am

Let me know when a computer can detect a non-normal situation requiring an unannunciated checklist and then action it. By the very nature of being unannunciated means a computer cannot detect it. Airspeed unreliable is the prime example. And then with a AIR DATA SYS how to prioritise the several checklists that come up.

How's the decision-making going to go when your destination is out of crosswind limits? Or you have a medical diversion requirement? Or a decompression over the Himalayas? Or where terrain prevents autolands (Innsbruck?)

Technology is great and all but so many decisions taken by pilots in normal and non-normal situations cannot be replicated easily or at all by a computer that can think only in binary/yes or no terms. The raison d-être of pilots is to work out the grey - using decision making models like TDODAR and risk analysis like BRAN - a computer is incapable of that.
 
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kordcj
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:47 am

You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.
The most obvious proof for intelligent life in the universe is that they haven't tried to contact us.
 
impilot
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:53 am

kordcj wrote:
You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.

Lol okay....
 
rbretas
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:02 am

I don't agree that pilots would know the answer to that question better than the engineers and programmers working on it.
A couple friends who are professional real-time language interpreters used to say just 3 years ago that a computer would never be able to replace them as the nuances of interpreting, including considering body language, tone, and emotion, would never be replicated or understood by machines. Within just 3 years they all changed their minds and are sure their job will cease to exist within their lifetimes.

It's a matter of time, the question is "when?". Definitely not 797, but soon after, probably. At the moment the changes required to make a pilot-less aircraft (increased redundancy, ground systems, navigation, processing power...) are just not worth.
 
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zeke
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:06 am

kordcj wrote:
You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.


And yet every month I fly on routes where there is nothing around, closest airport is 3-4 hours away.

No VHF, No HF, No SATCOM.

A lot of parts of the world that simply does not have the ground based infrastructure to support the sort of automation you are suggesting.

There is also the small matter of getting regulators from every country to sign off on it.
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
FluidFlow
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:12 am

impilot wrote:
kordcj wrote:
You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.

Lol okay....


Self-flying aircraft will be the norm way faster than expected. It is the regulation that hold it back, not the technology.

Aircraft are an order of magnitude further in automation than cars are and just the fact that aircraft operate in 3D makes it easier to automate than in 2D. There is so much less unexpected happening in the air than on the ground.

The only thing that is a problem right now is what happens when the automation fails (like MCAS) but redundancy and ground control will reduce that risk a lot in the future

The military is already there with UAVs and when the first unmanned fighter jets are launched, it will take no more than 10 years until the civil aviation will be autonomous during flight and will not need a pilot on board anymore.

First it will be that ATC will take control during take-off and landing and the rest will be handled by autopilot, then auto landing and auto take-off will take over and ATC will only be there if automation fails.

Even interrupted communication will be no problem as the automation will have failure modes that will bring the aircraft immediately to the next airport if something unusual happens. Predictive computing will also be able to detect sensor failures and unusual flight conditions.
 
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Blimpie
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:28 am

Seabear wrote:
Why not get rid of flight attendants at the same time? After all, 99.999% of the time they're nothing more than glorified cocktail waitresses. Just set up a vending machine in the back. Just sayin'.

/s


How many times does it need to be said, "Don't give Ryainar any more ideas!" :)

Karlsands wrote:
747megatop wrote:
CNBC has a report out stating that B 797 may be a one pilot cockpit aircraft with the 2nd pilot being a ground based pilot monitoring multiple aircraft!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/boeings ... board.html


It will be interesting to see how this plays out and if it becomes reality. We all know that the military flies unmanned drones with ground based pilots; so the technology exists BUT it is a an entirely different ballgame with 100s of passengers on an aircraft.

It is CNBC after all, I would assume it’s made up garbage at the least. What a joke


Not sure what that means, CNBC is a pretty well respected media organization. Sure you don't have CNBC confused with MSNBC, that's referred to within the industry as the "FOX News Left"?
Now get the hell off of my lawn your dang kids!
 
VSMUT
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:35 am

kordcj wrote:
You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.


You are joking, right? Have you checked the failure rate for rockets? How much work goes into preparing them? Even SpaceX hasn't reused a rocket more than what, 3 times? They are hoping for 10 relaunches, maybe as much as 100 over an entire lifespan, with major overhauls between each launch. That's as little as a few days for an airliner, and airliners don't get major overhauls for months. For your example to work, every 737 would have to go into a C-check after each flight, then get thrown away after 100 flights, and they would still crash with alarming regularity.
 
impilot
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Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:38 am

FluidFlow wrote:
impilot wrote:
kordcj wrote:
You guys are underestimating how far we’ve come in automation. Companies are launching rockets that launch and land on their own. NASA has rovers that make decisions on where to go based on the conditions presented. Even shuttle was capable of landing itself. The only need for the pilot was to lower the landing gear. Once Boeing and Airbus demand their suppliers make better/more robust avionics like the space industry does, self driven/guided planes will be the norm.

Lol okay....


Self-flying aircraft will be the norm way faster than expected. It is the regulation that hold it back, not the technology.

Aircraft are an order of magnitude further in automation than cars are and just the fact that aircraft operate in 3D makes it easier to automate than in 2D. There is so much less unexpected happening in the air than on the ground.

The only thing that is a problem right now is what happens when the automation fails (like MCAS) but redundancy and ground control will reduce that risk a lot in the future

The military is already there with UAVs and when the first unmanned fighter jets are launched, it will take no more than 10 years until the civil aviation will be autonomous during flight and will not need a pilot on board anymore.

First it will be that ATC will take control during take-off and landing and the rest will be handled by autopilot, then auto landing and auto take-off will take over and ATC will only be there if automation fails.

Even interrupted communication will be no problem as the automation will have failure modes that will bring the aircraft immediately to the next airport if something unusual happens. Predictive computing will also be able to detect sensor failures and unusual flight conditions.


Do you know how many unmanned aircraft the US military has crashed due to failures/lost link/hack jobs? And for every unmanned aircraft that is flying in the military, do you know how many people are working to keep it up?

Also, you realize we will be flying manned fighters for many more decades, right? And an unmanned fighter has already flown https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ghter-jet/ So does that mean you give it 10 years before civil aviation will be autonomous?

Pilots aren't going away anytime soon in the military or the airlines.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:53 am

impilot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
impilot wrote:
Lol okay....


Self-flying aircraft will be the norm way faster than expected. It is the regulation that hold it back, not the technology.

Aircraft are an order of magnitude further in automation than cars are and just the fact that aircraft operate in 3D makes it easier to automate than in 2D. There is so much less unexpected happening in the air than on the ground.

The only thing that is a problem right now is what happens when the automation fails (like MCAS) but redundancy and ground control will reduce that risk a lot in the future

The military is already there with UAVs and when the first unmanned fighter jets are launched, it will take no more than 10 years until the civil aviation will be autonomous during flight and will not need a pilot on board anymore.

First it will be that ATC will take control during take-off and landing and the rest will be handled by autopilot, then auto landing and auto take-off will take over and ATC will only be there if automation fails.

Even interrupted communication will be no problem as the automation will have failure modes that will bring the aircraft immediately to the next airport if something unusual happens. Predictive computing will also be able to detect sensor failures and unusual flight conditions.


Do you know how many unmanned aircraft the US military has crashed due to failures/lost link/hack jobs? And for every unmanned aircraft that is flying in the military, do you know how many people are working to keep it up?

Also, you realize we will be flying manned fighters for many more decades, right? And an unmanned fighter has already flown https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ghter-jet/ So does that mean you give it 10 years before civil aviation will be autonomous?

Pilots aren't going away anytime soon in the military or the airlines.


Hundreds of military aircrafts with jet engines crashed before the first jet engine was mounted on a civil aircraft.

Dozens of military aircraft with FBW controls crashed before the first civil aircraft hat an all FBW system.

And the list goes on. Back at that time most people dismissed that this technology it will be standard for general aviation and it took only a couple of years and it was normal. The same will be with autonomous flying.
Satellite communication and satellite internet coverage will increase quickly, the globe will be triple redundant covered by 2030. The technology will become cheaper and more accessible, there is nothing stopping that while on the other end the training and education of (military) pilots becomes more and more expensive. You cannot stop the technology.

The coachman also didn’t thought the train and the car will make their job redundant but it happened. Next are taxi drivers and train drivers and shortly after them it will be the pilots.

I am 43 years old now and I am pretty sure when I am 83 I will fly on an aircraft without a pilot.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 3043
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:24 am

FluidFlow wrote:
The coachman also didn’t thought the train and the car will make their job redundant but it happened. Next are taxi drivers and train drivers and shortly after them it will be the pilots.


The really funny thing that most proponents of automation keep forgetting, is that for an aircraft to truly be fully self-sufficient, it will require an AI so smart that virtually every other job in the world will have been automated too. That includes secretaries, teachers, hairdressers, factory workers, managers and so on. Everybody loves to talk about how pilots won't be needed in x amount of years, but reality is that if that happens, no people will be required at all in any sector.
 
Amiga500
Posts: 2324
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2015 8:22 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:54 am

747megatop wrote:
CNBC has a report out stating that B 797 may be a one pilot cockpit aircraft with the 2nd pilot being a ground based pilot monitoring multiple aircraft!

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/20/boeings ... board.html


Given where Boeing are right now with the MAX - I think that idea will have to be shelved for a while.


Ironically - if there had been a team of (rather than one) on-ground pilots - they would have had a better chance of diagnosing the problems early enough to save the aircraft.
 
Aither
Posts: 1207
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:57 am

An IT guy someone in Hyderabad will pilot your aircraft.
Sounds great.
Never trust the obvious
 
BrianWilkes
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:03 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:17 am

Yes I can see Boeing with a one cockpit person with the problems there having now!
Great idea go for it!
Will never happen.
 
ScottishDavie
Posts: 215
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2011 10:48 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:18 am

Sorry but 1 April has passed

The complete answer to this idiocy is in four characters - QF32
 
outbackair
Posts: 133
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:01 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:24 am

China's already onto this, but first using single engine cargo aircraft in remote areas. I suspect they may end up ahead of the rest of the world, not least because they don't have unions who would fight it.

https://www.janes.com/article/86057/chi ... evaluation
 
AitorL
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2016 3:45 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:28 am

VSMUT wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The coachman also didn’t thought the train and the car will make their job redundant but it happened. Next are taxi drivers and train drivers and shortly after them it will be the pilots.


The really funny thing that most proponents of automation keep forgetting, is that for an aircraft to truly be fully self-sufficient, it will require an AI so smart that virtually every other job in the world will have been automated too. That includes secretaries, teachers, hairdressers, factory workers, managers and so on. Everybody loves to talk about how pilots won't be needed in x amount of years, but reality is that if that happens, no people will be required at all in any sector.


As a Computer Engineer, my understanding is that a plane flying with one pilot cockpit and a second pilot monitoring in real time the flight from a land station is quite unlikely due to the limitations on comms availability and the quality of those comms worldwide, but what eventually will happen is AI flying the plane, and the onboard pilot making the decissions that AI cannot handle until it learns from experience. Of course, the technology needs to be proben enough for meeting the safety 9s required.

When it comes to the onboard pilot incapacitation for any reason, the ground based pilot monitoring could work as a backup.

The biggest concern for me on any of those scenarios is the chance of having an aircraft "hacked". Once you expose a computer to a non isolated network you have to make sure that no back doors are left open.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:30 am

VSMUT wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The coachman also didn’t thought the train and the car will make their job redundant but it happened. Next are taxi drivers and train drivers and shortly after them it will be the pilots.


The really funny thing that most proponents of automation keep forgetting, is that for an aircraft to truly be fully self-sufficient, it will require an AI so smart that virtually every other job in the world will have been automated too. That includes secretaries, teachers, hairdressers, factory workers, managers and so on. Everybody loves to talk about how pilots won't be needed in x amount of years, but reality is that if that happens, no people will be required at all in any sector.


It does not really need to be an AI, as long as the logic is able to solve 99,99999% of the possible failures and how to handle them it is good enough. For the rest you have an operator on the ground that can remote control the aircraft.

Machine learning is a powerful tool and with simulators you can train computers to do exactly what a human would do or has to to (follow procedures) and the computer will never make a mistake or skip a step and will also execute the procedures way faster.

We trained our machine to tell us if a certain set of input parameters will give a result within an acceptable range, without even calculating the 3D model. We were able to reduce the workload by 90%.

The same will happen on aircraft very soon. The aircraft will tell the pilot which NNC he has to run based on the inputs from the sensors and the predictive model. If the pilot does it, the machine learns that it was correct. The next step will be that the machine will execute the NNC itself, because it knows it is the right thing to do as you trained it to do this.
 
dtw2hyd
Posts: 7110
Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:40 am

Baby steps, first allow single pilot option on 19 seat aircraft, before experimenting on 200+ passengers.
 
uta999
Posts: 741
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 11:10 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:41 am

FluidFlow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
The coachman also didn’t thought the train and the car will make their job redundant but it happened. Next are taxi drivers and train drivers and shortly after them it will be the pilots.


The really funny thing that most proponents of automation keep forgetting, is that for an aircraft to truly be fully self-sufficient, it will require an AI so smart that virtually every other job in the world will have been automated too. That includes secretaries, teachers, hairdressers, factory workers, managers and so on. Everybody loves to talk about how pilots won't be needed in x amount of years, but reality is that if that happens, no people will be required at all in any sector.


It does not really need to be an AI, as long as the logic is able to solve 99,99999% of the possible failures and how to handle them it is good enough. For the rest you have an operator on the ground that can remote control the aircraft.

Machine learning is a powerful tool and with simulators you can train computers to do exactly what a human would do or has to to (follow procedures) and the computer will never make a mistake or skip a step and will also execute the procedures way faster.

We trained our machine to tell us if a certain set of input parameters will give a result within an acceptable range, without even calculating the 3D model. We were able to reduce the workload by 90%.

The same will happen on aircraft very soon. The aircraft will tell the pilot which NNC he has to run based on the inputs from the sensors and the predictive model. If the pilot does it, the machine learns that it was correct. The next step will be that the machine will execute the NNC itself, because it knows it is the right thing to do as you trained it to do this.


Good luck with that; Blue screen of death, Windows encountered an error and shutdown unexpectedly, Windows needs to update to keep you safe online (and cannot be used for the next six hours) etc etc...

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1DI ... onPYp5LCxY
Your computer just got better
 
Luftymatt
Posts: 497
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2009 7:27 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:47 am

Heinkel wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
Not. A. Chance.


May be not from Boeing. They are sometimes so old school. (Control yokes, no FBW, etc...)


How do you think Boeing 777's and 787's are controlled? Plus quite a few systems in the 747-8? It's a misconception that Boeing don't do fly by wire. Like or not FBW is the future, for airliners at least.
chase the sun
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:54 am

uta999 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

The really funny thing that most proponents of automation keep forgetting, is that for an aircraft to truly be fully self-sufficient, it will require an AI so smart that virtually every other job in the world will have been automated too. That includes secretaries, teachers, hairdressers, factory workers, managers and so on. Everybody loves to talk about how pilots won't be needed in x amount of years, but reality is that if that happens, no people will be required at all in any sector.


It does not really need to be an AI, as long as the logic is able to solve 99,99999% of the possible failures and how to handle them it is good enough. For the rest you have an operator on the ground that can remote control the aircraft.

Machine learning is a powerful tool and with simulators you can train computers to do exactly what a human would do or has to to (follow procedures) and the computer will never make a mistake or skip a step and will also execute the procedures way faster.

We trained our machine to tell us if a certain set of input parameters will give a result within an acceptable range, without even calculating the 3D model. We were able to reduce the workload by 90%.

The same will happen on aircraft very soon. The aircraft will tell the pilot which NNC he has to run based on the inputs from the sensors and the predictive model. If the pilot does it, the machine learns that it was correct. The next step will be that the machine will execute the NNC itself, because it knows it is the right thing to do as you trained it to do this.


Good luck with that; Blue screen of death, Windows encountered an error and shutdown unexpectedly, Windows needs to update to keep you safe online (and cannot be used for the next six hours) etc etc...

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1DI ... onPYp5LCxY


If it will run on windows, then good night but that would be about the same capital mistake as the design of the first MCAS...
 
planecane
Posts: 1149
Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2017 4:58 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:09 am

Elementalism wrote:
SierraPacific wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
You don’t think drones fly over cities?


Not the size of a 767 at 400 MPH, Drones do not interact with the airspace system and require hours of preplanning to launch a mission. The technology is just not practical for a commercial airliner and won't be for decades.

If you meant the RC quadcopters that have been labeled as drones then yes they do.


If they can get automated cars to work they can figure out an aircraft. It is less congested in the air than on the ground.

The issue is when something goes wrong, both for people on board and on the ground. An automated car can pull off the road. Even if it just stopped in the middle of the highway most of the time passengers would survive.

Rockets are autonomous but they have range safety systems and have the path below cleared. Crewed flights also have abort systems for crew capsules (unlike the space shuttle). None of this is practical or desirable for passenger aircraft. I sure as heck wouldn't want to be on board anything with a range safety system (self destruct) to protect people on the ground.
 
User avatar
Aesma
Posts: 11845
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 6:14 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:59 am

WorldFlier wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


I believe we are done here. Either you need a backup or you don't need a single person. The risk of failure is too high because if there's an issue with the pilot, what are the odds that there isn't an issue with the ground link?

Too high.


The default is the plane flies itself. With necessary redundant computers, using separate software stacks so that a bug can't affect all the computers, etc.

The pilot is there as a backup, basically to reassure passengers.

Ground link's only purpose is for when the pilot is sabotaging the flight, to override him/her.

So it's true, there would be no need for any pilot.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
klm617
Posts: 4450
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 12:08 pm

mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


Because a pilot needs to be there to override the automation when the computer is not processing the information correctly. The MAX8 situation proved that when the computer takes over the plane and doesn't understand the real world situation it will crash the plane. Also a clogged pitit tube giving erroneous airspeed information to the computer. You need 2 pilots on the plane in case one becomes incapacitated. We can't even transmit CVR data to the ground effectively how is someone going to control a plane from the ground. Not to mention a rouge pilot on the ground with ill intent and nothing to loose because he's not actually on board the aircraft.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
art
Posts: 2936
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 12:13 pm

I can imagine that the pilot is there to monitor the automation flying the plane and to take manual control if the automatic control is experiencing problems (AOA sensor, IAS sensor etc mismatch) but what if the sole pilot needs to leave the cockpit at any time? Where's the backup to save the plane if there is a problem?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: B 797 - One pilot cockpit?

Tue May 21, 2019 12:23 pm

klm617 wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Heres what I don't get about this....

If a plane is designed to fly with one pilot, it has to be designed to fly with none. Because that pilot "system" has too high of a failure rate to operate without a backup.

And if a plane can fly with none, why would it be designed to fly with one? An unmanned airplane would be a huge cost savings... much more than any gain you could get from justifications for keeping a pilot up there at all.


Because a pilot needs to be there to override the automation when the computer is not processing the information correctly. The MAX8 situation proved that when the computer takes over the plane and doesn't understand the real world situation it will crash the plane. Also a clogged pitit tube giving erroneous airspeed information to the computer. You need 2 pilots on the plane in case one becomes incapacitated. We can't even transmit CVR data to the ground effectively how is someone going to control a plane from the ground. Not to mention a rouge pilot on the ground with ill intent and nothing to loose because he's not actually on board the aircraft.


You cannot take the MAX-8 Situation as a reference, because a) the aircraft has no redundancy for AoA error (at least in MCAS case) and b) it is designed to have pilots to troubleshoot, hence the FCC processes AoA data, but cannot say which input is right and which is wrong.

Predictive filtering and modelling can tell you which inputs are right and which are wrong.

The route JFK - LHR was probably flown 1mio times. It takes way less FDR data sets (approx 10'000) to train a machine which sensor input is within range and which is not along the route and if an AoA or pitot tube would fail, the computer is able to tell you exactly which one has failed and could automatically trouble shoot this problem. This technology exists since a few years.

On the other side if a pilot would make inputs that bring an aircraft in danger the machine will have no problem to detect that this input would lead to a crash. FBW aircraft can already prevent stall and bad input in protected mode. There is nothing preventing a machine to protect itself even more. Ground proximity warning could lead to automatic TOGA trust and a pitch up until the aircraft is 10'000ft above ground level. This tools would already be there, they are just not used.

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