UA's plan to replace 777's?

rjmf22 · Mon May 20, 2019 8:30 pm

Hey guys,
What is United's plan to replace some of their older 777's that are getting up there in age. More 787's? A350's? Most of these birds are approaching 20+ years in age, or close to it.

ikolkyo · Mon May 20, 2019 8:46 pm

Well they have 45 A359s on order........

Stitch · Mon May 20, 2019 8:49 pm

As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

sohanb82 · Mon May 20, 2019 9:23 pm

Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

77Ws probably won't be replacing these 772s--they have a lot of life left. I would expect a combination of A359 and 78J. I have no doubt that they will take the A350. I just don't think they will take all 45 as the 78J is a better candidate for European hops (SFO-FRA 772, SFO-CDG 772, EWR/IAD-FCO 772, ORD-FRA/MUC 772, IAH-LHR/AMS 772, many more ect.) as well as short Pacific flights (IAD-PEK a 78J has happened a few times, LAX-HND).

MIflyer12 · Mon May 20, 2019 9:23 pm

A.net really needs to have a useful search function. Wasn't this question addressed in detail just in the last week?

xxcr · Mon May 20, 2019 9:52 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
A.net really needs to have a useful search function. Wasn't this question addressed in detail just in the last week?

This topic has been brought a number of times!

But to answer the OP questions....

UA has a number of A359, 77W, 78J, and 789 on order. Im sure those planes can pick up and replace the 772's easily.

Lufthansa · Mon May 20, 2019 10:04 pm

Not to mention the 767 probably needs attention first.

Sooner787 · Mon May 20, 2019 10:24 pm

Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

When is UA supposed to receive their next 77W?

That might very well be the first 77W we see in the new livery

United1 · Mon May 20, 2019 10:49 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

When is UA supposed to receive their next 77W?

That might very well be the first 77W we see in the new livery

There are two being delivered in the 4th quarter.

Sooner787 · Tue May 21, 2019 2:31 pm

United1 wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

When is UA supposed to receive their next 77W?

That might very well be the first 77W we see in the new livery

There are two being delivered in the 4th quarter.

Excellent. Surely those will be delivered in the new livery

American 767 · Tue May 21, 2019 2:50 pm

Lufthansa wrote:
Not to mention the 767 probably needs attention first.

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

keesje · Tue May 21, 2019 2:56 pm

American 767 wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
Not to mention the 767 probably needs attention first.

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever :wink2:

Cointrin330 · Tue May 21, 2019 3:11 pm

keesje wrote:
American 767 wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
Not to mention the 767 probably needs attention first.

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

The 767-400ER's were built and delivered (all) to Continental between 1999 and 2000. The 767-300ER fleet is a whole lot older, with the exception of a dozen frames built and delivered in 2002-2003. United has invested a lot of resources and money to extend the lifespan of the 763s with extensive cabin modifications and avionic upgrades (similar to Delta) and unlike American, which has essentially minimized investing in the 767-300ER except for partial cabin modifications and key maintenance and is phasing the plane out. The A359 is not the replacement for the 767 at United (if United goes ahead with A359 deliveries). The 797 is touted as the 763 replacement.

keesje · Tue May 21, 2019 4:37 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
keesje wrote:
American 767 wrote:

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

The 767-400ER's were built and delivered (all) to Continental between 1999 and 2000. The 767-300ER fleet is a whole lot older, with the exception of a dozen frames built and delivered in 2002-2003. United has invested a lot of resources and money to extend the lifespan of the 763s with extensive cabin modifications and avionic upgrades (similar to Delta) and unlike American, which has essentially minimized investing in the 767-300ER except for partial cabin modifications and key maintenance and is phasing the plane out. The A359 is not the replacement for the 767 at United (if United goes ahead with A359 deliveries). The 797 is touted as the 763 replacement.

If that is correct, Boeing missed the 767 window of opportunity. 2027 For first 797 replacement aircraft becoming available is too far out, in today's competitive environment. Also for 757 replacement btw.

Cointrin330 · Tue May 21, 2019 5:54 pm

keesje wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

The 767-400ER's were built and delivered (all) to Continental between 1999 and 2000. The 767-300ER fleet is a whole lot older, with the exception of a dozen frames built and delivered in 2002-2003. United has invested a lot of resources and money to extend the lifespan of the 763s with extensive cabin modifications and avionic upgrades (similar to Delta) and unlike American, which has essentially minimized investing in the 767-300ER except for partial cabin modifications and key maintenance and is phasing the plane out. The A359 is not the replacement for the 767 at United (if United goes ahead with A359 deliveries). The 797 is touted as the 763 replacement.

If that is correct, Boeing missed the 767 window of opportunity. 2027 For first 797 replacement aircraft becoming available is too far out, in today's competitive environment. Also for 757 replacement btw.

Boeing's view was that the market for the 757 replacement was relatively small (am not agreeing or disagreeing). As such, Airbus has marketed the A321LR to airlines needing a replacement for the 757.

Spacepope · Tue May 21, 2019 6:00 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
keesje wrote:
American 767 wrote:

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

The 767-400ER's were built and delivered (all) to Continental between 1999 and 2000. The 767-300ER fleet is a whole lot older, with the exception of a dozen frames built and delivered in 2002-2003. United has invested a lot of resources and money to extend the lifespan of the 763s with extensive cabin modifications and avionic upgrades (similar to Delta) and unlike American, which has essentially minimized investing in the 767-300ER except for partial cabin modifications and key maintenance and is phasing the plane out. The A359 is not the replacement for the 767 at United (if United goes ahead with A359 deliveries). The 797 is touted as the 763 replacement.

The oldest 764 in the fleet should hit 80,000 hours on it in less than a year. Seeing how long the 763 is being run, I'd say the 764 (and the 772s) will be around for a good many further years.

Cointrin330 · Tue May 21, 2019 8:35 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
keesje wrote:

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

The 767-400ER's were built and delivered (all) to Continental between 1999 and 2000. The 767-300ER fleet is a whole lot older, with the exception of a dozen frames built and delivered in 2002-2003. United has invested a lot of resources and money to extend the lifespan of the 763s with extensive cabin modifications and avionic upgrades (similar to Delta) and unlike American, which has essentially minimized investing in the 767-300ER except for partial cabin modifications and key maintenance and is phasing the plane out. The A359 is not the replacement for the 767 at United (if United goes ahead with A359 deliveries). The 797 is touted as the 763 replacement.

The oldest 764 in the fleet should hit 80,000 hours on it in less than a year. Seeing how long the 763 is being run, I'd say the 764 (and the 772s) will be around for a good many further years.

Makes sense. The first batch of 777s (I think all were 777As, were built and delivered in 1995-96). The 777's are being retrofitted with the Polaris cabin and imagine further upgrades are being done to avionics, etc..as needed.

Bricktop · Tue May 21, 2019 9:18 pm

keesje wrote:
If that is correct, Boeing missed the 767 window of opportunity. 2027 For first 797 replacement aircraft becoming available is too far out, in today's competitive environment. Also for 757 replacement btw.

I think Boeing is well aware of what the real 767 window of opportunity is. Probably not congruent with a.net punditry most likely.

But this is a thread for the B772 replacement and as others have said, that's the province of the A359 order. The A359 in UA's new livery would look very sweet IMO. When are deliveries to start?

rjmf22 · Tue May 21, 2019 9:52 pm

Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:
If that is correct, Boeing missed the 767 window of opportunity. 2027 For first 797 replacement aircraft becoming available is too far out, in today's competitive environment. Also for 757 replacement btw.

I think Boeing is well aware of what the real 767 window of opportunity is. Probably not congruent with a.net punditry most likely.

But this is a thread for the B772 replacement and as others have said, that's the province of the A359 order. The A359 in UA's new livery would look very sweet IMO. When are deliveries to start?

2022, if they keep the order intact.

STT757 · Tue May 21, 2019 9:59 pm

rjmf22 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
keesje wrote:
If that is correct, Boeing missed the 767 window of opportunity. 2027 For first 797 replacement aircraft becoming available is too far out, in today's competitive environment. Also for 757 replacement btw.

I think Boeing is well aware of what the real 767 window of opportunity is. Probably not congruent with a.net punditry most likely.

But this is a thread for the B772 replacement and as others have said, that's the province of the A359 order. The A359 in UA's new livery would look very sweet IMO. When are deliveries to start?

2020, if they keep the order intact.

UA deferred delivery of their first A350s until late 2022, which means the first ones will enter service sometime in 2023. That's if nothing else changes.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1BH1P8

rjmf22 · Tue May 21, 2019 10:00 pm

STT757 wrote:
rjmf22 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
I think Boeing is well aware of what the real 767 window of opportunity is. Probably not congruent with a.net punditry most likely.

But this is a thread for the B772 replacement and as others have said, that's the province of the A359 order. The A359 in UA's new livery would look very sweet IMO. When are deliveries to start?

2020, if they keep the order intact.

UA deferred delivery of their first A350s until late 2022, which means the first ones will enter service sometime in 2023. That's if nothing else changes.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKCN1BH1P8

Yep, just caught my typo

trav7778 · Tue May 21, 2019 10:16 pm

I don't think UA will replace their 77E soon. They will be installed with brand new Polaris and Premium Plus seats. Retiring newly renovated planes seems to be very wasteful and hence unlikely to happen.

1989worstyear · Wed May 22, 2019 1:47 am

keesje wrote:
American 767 wrote:
Lufthansa wrote:
Not to mention the 767 probably needs attention first.

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

If it was a 25-30 year old A320 you guys would not be saying this (1988 Factor).

jfk777 · Wed May 22, 2019 2:12 am

United like BA is acquiring many long haul airplane not just one or two types. The 77W are new so they will likely see 2040 at United. The 787 will be here in 2040 too. The 777-200ER fleet is the one getting replaced by A350-900 and various 787's. The real question is what will replace the 767-300ER since Boeing can't seem to decide if they will launch the NMA plane. AA gave us an indication of 767 replacement, the 787-8. UA could do worse them buy the capable 787 as a 767 replacement. Seattle will have the "right" answer, the A350 is too much for the Atlantic and the A330-900 is too big.

United1 · Wed May 22, 2019 2:26 am

1989worstyear wrote:
keesje wrote:
American 767 wrote:

The 400ERs are still young and can fly for another 5 to 7 years, if not 10 years.

Have to agree with Lufthansa. The -400ER's average 18 yrs old, the 767-300ER average 24 years old. They aren't young forever

If it was a 25-30 year old A320 you guys would not be saying this (1988 Factor).

The A320s won't be young forever....see I can say that and not burst into flames

One of the reasons UA is taking delivery of used A319s is so they can retire some of the oldest A320s as well as provide capacity for growth. You will see a few older Airbii leave the fleet this year.

The 764/763s will have to be retired eventually but they do have a few years of life left in them:

Tranche 1 763ERs average 27 years of age and will probably start going in the next few years...I'm expecting a 787 order to replace these 21 aircraft.
Tranche 2 763ERs average 20 years of age and theoretically could see another 10 years of service. Those 17 aircraft along with the 16 764s can make it until the 797 is ready.

United1 · Wed May 22, 2019 2:33 am

jfk777 wrote:
United like BA is acquiring many long haul airplane not just one or two types. The 77W are new so they will likely see 2040 at United. The 787 will be here in 2040 too. The 777-200ER fleet is the one getting replaced by A350-900 and various 787's. The real question is what will replace the 767-300ER since Boeing can't seem to decide if they will launch the NMA plane. AA gave us an indication of 767 replacement, the 787-8. UA could do worse them buy the capable 787 as a 767 replacement. Seattle will have the "right" answer, the A350 is too much for the Atlantic and the A330-900 is too big.

The 767ERs, 753s and 752s will be replaced a combination of 787s, MAX10s and something in between the two types. The issue that UA is sorting through is the 50 or so aircraft where the 787 is too much aircraft and the MAX10 is too small/short ranged. UAs gone so far as to say that in a town hall.

EChid · Wed May 22, 2019 4:49 am

jfk777 wrote:
Seattle will have the "right" answer, the A350 is too much for the Atlantic and the A330-900 is too big.

And yet Lufthansa, BA, IB, and AF run or will shortly run the A350 across the Atlantic.

What does 'too much' even mean? Having something that has more range than you need for a specific route doesn't preclude it from still being a good plane for the route. By that measure, every 77W or 787-9 crossing the Atlantic is also 'too much.'

MSPNWA · Wed May 22, 2019 5:10 am

My guess is still:

1) 77Es replaced by 789/78X starting around 2025.
2) A359 order converted to narrowbody - probably A321

I don't how the A359 order stays as-is. At the very least I see another deferral. 2022-23 is too soon unless UA plans even more large capacity increase and/or retires the 77Es much sooner than expected, not producing a good investment return from the Polaris retrofit.

Stitch · Wed May 22, 2019 5:01 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
I don't how the A359 order stays as-is. At the very least I see another deferral. 2022-23 is too soon unless UA plans even more large capacity increase and/or retires the 77Es much sooner than expected, not producing a good investment return from the Polaris retrofit.

Is the plan to retrofit the entire 777-200ER fleet, or will some frames be excluded? If the latter, then there will be retirements that UA can start to slot A350-900s into.

Also, do we know the planned delivery schedule for the A350-900s? UA could take just a handful in the first years and then start to accelerate deliveries in later years as they start to more aggressively draw-down the 77E fleet.

dmstorm22 · Wed May 22, 2019 5:10 pm

Stitch wrote:
MSPNWA wrote:
I don't how the A359 order stays as-is. At the very least I see another deferral. 2022-23 is too soon unless UA plans even more large capacity increase and/or retires the 77Es much sooner than expected, not producing a good investment return from the Polaris retrofit.

Is the plan to retrofit the entire 777-200ER fleet, or will some frames be excluded? If the latter, then there will be retirements that UA can start to slot A350-900s into.

Also, do we know the planned delivery schedule for the A350-900s? UA could take just a handful in the first years and then start to accelerate deliveries in later years as they start to more aggressively draw-down the 77E fleet.

I believe it is a slow delivery schedule of the A359s, so the first few could start late 2022/early 2023, but most will take some time to come online.

VC10er · Wed May 22, 2019 8:41 pm

I know this is a 772 thread, BUT, I don’t understand why UA got more used 763’s and created high J- premium heavy layouts- yet the 764 has no plans announced (that I know of) to get Polaris/PE?

But the 764 does fly many premium routes?

What is the plan for fairly young 764s? Wouldn’t they be good contenders for large Polaris/PE sections and larger Y+ and Y too?

VC10er · Wed May 22, 2019 8:58 pm

As for the 772s that are somewhat old, with about 4+ years left before the A350s start arriving- about how much money is spent on an older 772 to renovate: maintenance, add Polaris/PE and new carpeting, bulkheads etc, length of time out of service etc?
Even just a wild guess would be fascinating!?!?!

tommyy · Wed May 22, 2019 9:04 pm

I can tell you this much, I am sitting now in a 787-10 EWR-TLV which used to be a 777-200 so UA is using the 787-10 to replace 777-200

sohanb82 · Wed May 22, 2019 9:05 pm

VC10er wrote:
But the 764 does fly many premium routes?

Because it has the amount of J seats needed for European destinations. As the high-Js come online, I suspect some 764 will go to the high-Js.

sohanb82 · Wed May 22, 2019 9:09 pm

tommyy wrote:
I can tell you this much, I am sitting now in a 787-10 EWR-TLV which used to be a 777-200 so UA is using the 787-10 to replace 777-200

Kinda, but not really. Last summer, 77As (domestic) were flying to Europe. As the 78Js come along, they will allow the 77As to be taken off international routes and instead go to hub/hub, transcon, Hawaii, as well as a few high demand leisure routes. In the case of TLV, the 78J replaced a 772 on the route, which in turn replaced a 77A on another European route, and that 77A is now going to Hawaii.

Veigar · Wed May 22, 2019 9:14 pm

Are UA not using the A350 orders as hostage to get discounts from Boeing? Or has this theory been squashed.

Stitch · Wed May 22, 2019 9:57 pm

Veigar wrote:
Are UA not using the A350 orders as hostage to get discounts from Boeing? Or has this theory been squashed.

Considering UA keeps ordering more every time they renegotiate with Airbus, if they are, they're doing it wrong. :silly:

Eyad89 · Wed May 22, 2019 10:09 pm

Well, their CFO has made it clear that incoming A359s are planned to replace their aging 777-200.

Source:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... 0s-440887/

VC10er · Wed May 22, 2019 10:12 pm

sohanb82 wrote:
VC10er wrote:
But the 764 does fly many premium routes?

Because it has the amount of J seats needed for European destinations. As the high-Js come online, I suspect some 764 will go to the high-Js.

I was thinking the same- a 764 with the High J 763 configuration, would allow some more Y.

But, as UA NEVER really talks about the 764 re: Polaris, I’ve wondered if they would take on a big domestic people mover role?

Still curious about the number of millions 1 772 refurb must cost, and how long it will have to do revenue flights to pay off the investment

rjmf22 · Wed May 22, 2019 10:51 pm

tommyy wrote:
I can tell you this much, I am sitting now in a 787-10 EWR-TLV which used to be a 777-200 so UA is using the 787-10 to replace 777-200

The 787-10 lacks the range that some of the 777's fly on currently, I believe.

B764er · Wed May 22, 2019 11:24 pm

The 788 should replace the 763.

DylanHarvey · Thu May 23, 2019 4:50 am

rjmf22 wrote:
tommyy wrote:
I can tell you this much, I am sitting now in a 787-10 EWR-TLV which used to be a 777-200 so UA is using the 787-10 to replace 777-200

The 787-10 lacks the range that some of the 777's fly on currently, I believe.

That’s fotbidden on A.net. The 787-10 is actually the best aircraft ever produced. But yes you are correct haha.

TWA772LR · Thu May 23, 2019 5:32 am

While the A350 is a fantastic airplane and would make a great 772 replacement for UA, I'm in no hurry to see the sCO GE-powered frames leave.

Part of me is also in the camp UA will use the deposits to switch to the A321LR or even the A220. But I know it won't happen

na · Thu May 23, 2019 8:42 am

sohanb82 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

77Ws probably won't be replacing these 772s--they have a lot of life left.

There are not may of that opinion. Most airlines have retired or scrapped their 777 past their 15th or 20th birthday. UA has the oldest 777 fleet in the world.

sohanb82 · Thu May 23, 2019 1:17 pm

na wrote:
sohanb82 wrote:
Stitch wrote:
As noted, they have 45 A350-900s on order which will likely handle the bulk of the 777-200ER replacement. This will leave 10 777-200ER and 19 777-200 (per Wikipedia) which will probably be replaced with additional 787-10 purchases (they have 8 in the fleet now with 6 more on order). United also has four additional 777-300ER on order and those could play a role, as well.

77Ws probably won't be replacing these 772s--they have a lot of life left.

There are not may of that opinion. Most airlines have retired or scrapped their 777 past their 15th or 20th birthday. UA has the oldest 777 fleet in the world.

So? They don't have reliability issues, they can keep flying. I think they will defer A350 until Ultrafan and then take the whole 45. The 77E fleet can fly until then. The 77A will get a replacement at some point, perhaps 78J on domestic and 764 on Hawaii.

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