acavpics
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Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:56 am

I was wondering how much the ongoing conflict involving Iran would affect the ME3 in particular. If things were to to ramp up, QR would to be hit the hardest of the three, since they've been blockaded from UAE, Saudi, and Bahrain airspace. In that case, there would almost no way they could fly to North America or even Europe, since there would only be a an extremely narrow path over Iraq and Syria.

EK and EY could still sneak past by turning west and flying over Saudi Arabia, although their flights would become significantly longer.
 
ewt340
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:15 am

Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:16 am

It would be a global economic catastrophe. If the US attacked Iran the boys in Iran are going to light Saudi and the UAE up and they would shut down the Persian gulf.

Stop watching Fox News this scenario is not going to play out.
 
Lufthansa
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:17 am

I wouldn't worry too much, worst comes to worse they'll just fly over the Persian Gulf (or Arabian gulf depending on which side
of that debate you call it). So unless that airspace becomes particularly dangerous I can't see much of an issue.
 
ASA
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:41 am

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
It would be a global economic catastrophe. If the US attacked Iran the boys in Iran are going to light Saudi and the UAE up and they would shut down the Persian gulf.

Stop watching Fox News this scenario is not going to play out.


I hope so too! But if the Mad King Targaryen still chooses to do so ... EK and EY would surely be in a dilemma. It will be too close to the fire and brimstone theater ... :evil:
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:43 am

You have it the wrong way around. It's the gulf countries that are threatening Iran.
 
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flyPIT
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:49 am

The US FAA has issued Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) KICZ A0015/19:

"THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A BELOW SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING IN OVERWATER AIRSPACE ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE GULF OF OMAN DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE REGION, WHICH PRESENT AN INCREASING INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, AIRCRAFT OPERATING IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA MAY ENCOUNTER INADVERTENT GPS INTERFERENCE AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS JAMMING, WHICH COULD OCCUR WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING."

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwjJw-SrzKviAhWEjp4KHadoBccQFjABegQIBBAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faa.gov%2Fair_traffic%2Fpublications%2Fus_restrictions%2Fmedia%2Fkicz_a0015-19_advisory_notam_persian_gulf.pdf&usg=AOvVaw18Knty_VHHHdTOLIm5OWH6

As a result, my carrier has suspended operations in the Tehran FIR.
FLYi
 
Jetty
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:25 am

acavpics wrote:
QR would to be hit the hardest of the three, since they've been blockaded from UAE, Saudi, and Bahrain airspace.

I think otherwise. The UAE are strongly aligned with SA and can expect to receive incoming missiles from Iran if a war would happen. Compared to that blocked airspace is a rather minor problem. While Qatar doesn’t have good relations with either party in this conflict it wouldn’t be a priority target for any of them either.
 
sierrakilo44
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:28 am

flyPIT wrote:
As a result, my carrier has suspended operations in the Tehran FIR.


Really? I think it would be fine to fly over Iran itself. A quick look at flightradar shows all major European, Asian and ME carriers still operating in Tehran's airspace.

Any potential issues would come from the Gulf, after all it's not the Iranians who have a track record of shooting down civilian airliners in the region....
 
VSMUT
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:50 am

ewt340 wrote:
Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.


Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.
 
YIMBY
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 5:44 am

VSMUT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.


Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.


What kind of limitations there are to fly over China, north of Himalayas?

During Pakistan crisis I noticed that many carriers have routed their regular flights from South-East Asia to Europe south of Himalaya even when the shortest route would be north of it, and had to take then even longer routes south of Pakistan. Unless there are adverse weather conditions, I cannot imagine any other reason to avoid northern route than China does not give overflight permissions or charges so much that it makes no sense.

Russia is known to be very strict and greedy on overflight permissions.
 
ME720
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:47 am

YIMBY wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.


Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.


What kind of limitations there are to fly over China, north of Himalayas?

During Pakistan crisis I noticed that many carriers have routed their regular flights from South-East Asia to Europe south of Himalaya even when the shortest route would be north of it, and had to take then even longer routes south of Pakistan. Unless there are adverse weather conditions, I cannot imagine any other reason to avoid northern route than China does not give overflight permissions or charges so much that it makes no sense.

Russia is known to be very strict and greedy on overflight permissions.


If a conflict is to play out in the region, DXB AUH etc
Will shut down! With missiles flying around, besides No one in their right mind would want to transit in the region anyway.. and no one will go there on vacation. The Persian gulf countries have everything to loose; therefore, it will not happen..
 
VSMUT
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:09 am

YIMBY wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.


Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.


What kind of limitations there are to fly over China, north of Himalayas?

During Pakistan crisis I noticed that many carriers have routed their regular flights from South-East Asia to Europe south of Himalaya even when the shortest route would be north of it, and had to take then even longer routes south of Pakistan. Unless there are adverse weather conditions, I cannot imagine any other reason to avoid northern route than China does not give overflight permissions or charges so much that it makes no sense.

Russia is known to be very strict and greedy on overflight permissions.


First, the terrain is too high. Few (if any) airliners can maintain a safe single engine ceiling that is high enough. There are 2 corridors leading through that airliners could safely use, but that leads us to the second issue: They lead right over Tibet, and that airspace is controlled by the Chinese military who are paranoid about the situation there, and have so far refused overflight rights to airlines. So yeah, you are stuck flying all the way around.
 
OlafW
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:50 am

flyPIT wrote:
...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, AIRCRAFT OPERATING IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA MAY ENCOUNTER INADVERTENT GPS INTERFERENCE AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS JAMMING, WHICH COULD OCCUR WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING.


So putting it in simpler words, this reads "Do not fly there because we may tamper with communication signals and thus won't be able to check if a plane we are shooting down is from our allies or our enemies. Although this has happened before (long time ago, but anyway), we choose not to have learned from that situation."
Great, simply great...
 
Cathay777300ER
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:40 am

VSMUT wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.


What kind of limitations there are to fly over China, north of Himalayas?

During Pakistan crisis I noticed that many carriers have routed their regular flights from South-East Asia to Europe south of Himalaya even when the shortest route would be north of it, and had to take then even longer routes south of Pakistan. Unless there are adverse weather conditions, I cannot imagine any other reason to avoid northern route than China does not give overflight permissions or charges so much that it makes no sense.

Russia is known to be very strict and greedy on overflight permissions.


First, the terrain is too high. Few (if any) airliners can maintain a safe single engine ceiling that is high enough. There are 2 corridors leading through that airliners could safely use, but that leads us to the second issue: They lead right over Tibet, and that airspace is controlled by the Chinese military who are paranoid about the situation there, and have so far refused overflight rights to airlines. So yeah, you are stuck flying all the way around.


There are also extra oxygen requirements. Air China flies across the Himalayas from Lhasa to Katmandu but the aircraft have a number of spare oxygen tanks as well as expanded personal oxygen above seats.
 
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flyPIT
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:48 am

OlafW wrote:
flyPIT wrote:
...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, AIRCRAFT OPERATING IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA MAY ENCOUNTER INADVERTENT GPS INTERFERENCE AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS JAMMING, WHICH COULD OCCUR WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING.


So putting it in simpler words, this reads "Do not fly there because we may tamper with communication signals and thus won't be able to check if a plane we are shooting down is from our allies or our enemies. Although this has happened before (long time ago, but anyway), we choose not to have learned from that situation."
Great, simply great...


Strange moon tonight.
FLYi
 
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readytotaxi
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 3:40 pm

At the end of the day it is probable that the insurance companies will decided where a plane can or can not fly.
you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
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acavpics
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:09 pm

flyPIT wrote:
The US FAA has issued Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) KICZ A0015/19:

"THOSE PERSONS DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH A BELOW SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING IN OVERWATER AIRSPACE ABOVE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE GULF OF OMAN DUE TO HEIGHTENED MILITARY ACTIVITIES AND INCREASED POLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE REGION, WHICH PRESENT AN INCREASING INADVERTENT RISK TO U.S. CIVIL AVIATION OPERATIONS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MISCALCULATION OR MIS-IDENTIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY, AIRCRAFT OPERATING IN THE ABOVE-NAMED AREA MAY ENCOUNTER INADVERTENT GPS INTERFERENCE AND OTHER COMMUNICATIONS JAMMING, WHICH COULD OCCUR WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING."

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=2ahUKEwjJw-SrzKviAhWEjp4KHadoBccQFjABegQIBBAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.faa.gov%2Fair_traffic%2Fpublications%2Fus_restrictions%2Fmedia%2Fkicz_a0015-19_advisory_notam_persian_gulf.pdf&usg=AOvVaw18Knty_VHHHdTOLIm5OWH6

As a result, my carrier has suspended operations in the Tehran FIR.


What specifically do they mean by "exercising caution"? Does it mean that pilots should keep a visual eye on the space in front of them for missiles? I highly doubt that it would be effective, since these missiles are pretty darn fast, giving the pilots little to no time to pull an airliner away from one.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:18 am

I don't think there's anything to worry about as of right now, mainly because if there was:

1. A retaliatory response involving a missile is usually used to respond to some kind of significant escalation.
2. A missile launched offensively is much more provocative than a missile launched defensively so neither side is likely to do it without a good reason.
3. Some kind of major event would have to take place first and trigger such a significant escalation.
4. An event warranting such a response from either side would very likely also be significant to make news globally.
5. Airlines would take preventive measures if the situation became serious enough to make global news.
6. With so much coverage of the Persian Gulf, many would be quite aware of the volatile situation in the region.
7. Any aggression would be seen as an inevitable result of tensions requiring due diligence to avoid; planes would be expected to avoid the most tense areas anyway since the news would have gotten the attention of the airlines and people would expect no less in the context of safety.
8. Retaliatory missile strikes would be expected by that point and really not even a surprise to anyone in the context of an escalating prelude to conflict or immediately after a flare up.
9. Iran probably wouldn't make the first move, if anything the US is the bigger threat to air safety over the Persian Gulf. Google Iran Air 655. The US is in Iran's backyard, not the other way around. It's called the Persian Gulf for a reason.
10. All of these are very good reasons to not start a war in the first place.
 
algeorge2015
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:52 am

Its sad when politicians push the Big Brother attitude and wrestle the world into an economic downturn. And 3-4 days ago I read the funniest news stories by FAA and its military friends "https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wireStory/us-warns-airliners-flying-persian-gulf-amid-iran-63119307'.... Iran Air Flight 655 comes to mind.
 
marcelh
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:12 am

ME720 wrote:
YIMBY wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Actually it is an issue, and not just to the ME3. If war really breaks out, Oman, Saudi and the UAE are likely to get closed. Yemen and Pakistan are already off limits, and you can't cross the mountains north of India. It means that all flights from Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and New Zealand to Europe must take extreme detours through Africa or China/Russia.


What kind of limitations there are to fly over China, north of Himalayas?

During Pakistan crisis I noticed that many carriers have routed their regular flights from South-East Asia to Europe south of Himalaya even when the shortest route would be north of it, and had to take then even longer routes south of Pakistan. Unless there are adverse weather conditions, I cannot imagine any other reason to avoid northern route than China does not give overflight permissions or charges so much that it makes no sense.

Russia is known to be very strict and greedy on overflight permissions.


If a conflict is to play out in the region, DXB AUH etc
Will shut down! With missiles flying around, besides No one in their right mind would want to transit in the region anyway.. and no one will go there on vacation. The Persian gulf countries have everything to loose; therefore, it will not happen..


The Persian gulf countries aren’t those who actually will make the decision. The Orange man in the White House and his war-minded “advisors” will.....
 
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Vio
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:21 am

Honestly, I stopped watching the news and other propaganda machines. I'll deal with it when and IF it happens. We have so little control over things in life. Save a few bucks, learn a few skills and should catastrophe hit (natural or man made), you'll be able to handle it better than others.
Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
 
Yuanes
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 9:45 am

ewt340 wrote:
Iran isn't gonna be much of a problem, while the country is quite large, the areas around Iran are pretty usable to fly, it wouldn't caused too much damage to all airlines.


Dubai airport which had 75,000,000 passengers in 2014, is very close to Iran who has 10,000 medium and long range missiles.

Iran war will bring world economy to its knees for 6 to 12 months
Newswire: https://dangerousmother.com
 
jagraham
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:12 pm

This kind of thing happened once already. US Navy sunk half of the Iran Navy in one day (Operation Praying Mantis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis). Complete air dominance would take 24 to 48 hours, primarily to neutralize S-300 and S-400 SAMs. There would be no air threat to Saudi Arabia peninsula after that, although Iran could threaten Dubai across the Gulf with surface to surface missiles (I presume USA would station a couple of destroyers near Dubai to defend against such a threat). Iran overflight would end as no airline would want to risk a MH 17 type of situation, but overflying the Saudi peninsula would resume after the first couple of days. If war with Iran happened.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:22 pm

jagraham wrote:
This kind of thing happened once already. US Navy sunk half of the Iran Navy in one day (Operation Praying Mantis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis). Complete air dominance would take 24 to 48 hours, primarily to neutralize S-300 and S-400 SAMs. There would be no air threat to Saudi Arabia peninsula after that, although Iran could threaten Dubai across the Gulf with surface to surface missiles (I presume USA would station a couple of destroyers near Dubai to defend against such a threat). Iran overflight would end as no airline would want to risk a MH 17 type of situation, but overflying the Saudi peninsula would resume after the first couple of days. If war with Iran happened.


I would not be that sure. It might take ages and there will probably be a large zone around Iranian air space that would be closed advancing into the Arab peninsula. As long as there is no 100% guaranty that all long range SAM are gone, and due to the mobility of them this is never really given, it will stay closed for a while.

It took 15 years to open the air space over Kosovo for example:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kosovo-airspace/nato-opens-kosovo-airspace-to-civilian-overflights-after-15-years-idUSBREA331AV20140404
 
uta999
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:40 pm

I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003. However, the peace afterwards will take years, possibly decades.

The countries around Iran can probably defend themselves, with some US / Israeli help. The Iranian people probably support regime change (liberalisation) as much as those in the Sudan.
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B747Saeed
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:41 pm

There will be no war.
 
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B747Saeed
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:44 pm

uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003.

We are not Iraqis. We are Iranians. No similarity.
 
clipperlondon
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:19 pm

B747Saeed wrote:
uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003.

We are not Iraqis. We are Iranians. No similarity.


Thank you. Iranians are not Arabs, and vice versa. No love lost there either (and I'm talking millenia Mr Orange in case you thought you were the first inhabitants of the earth....)
 
BravoOne
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:29 pm

Don't think anyone is going to start a war unless Iram fires on a US Navy ship, and even this would be nothing more than a small skirmish at tihis point in time. The cable news networks are stirring this pot for their own agendas.
 
jagraham
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 3:45 pm

BravoOne wrote:
Don't think anyone is going to start a war unless Iram fires on a US Navy ship, and even this would be nothing more than a small skirmish at tihis point in time. The cable news networks are stirring this pot for their own agendas.


Unfortunately both Trump and the Iranians have their own agendas. The cable folks don't have to stir this pot much.
 
jagraham
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 3:47 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
jagraham wrote:
This kind of thing happened once already. US Navy sunk half of the Iran Navy in one day (Operation Praying Mantis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Praying_Mantis). Complete air dominance would take 24 to 48 hours, primarily to neutralize S-300 and S-400 SAMs. There would be no air threat to Saudi Arabia peninsula after that, although Iran could threaten Dubai across the Gulf with surface to surface missiles (I presume USA would station a couple of destroyers near Dubai to defend against such a threat). Iran overflight would end as no airline would want to risk a MH 17 type of situation, but overflying the Saudi peninsula would resume after the first couple of days. If war with Iran happened.


I would not be that sure. It might take ages and there will probably be a large zone around Iranian air space that would be closed advancing into the Arab peninsula. As long as there is no 100% guaranty that all long range SAM are gone, and due to the mobility of them this is never really given, it will stay closed for a while.

It took 15 years to open the air space over Kosovo for example:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kosovo-airspace/nato-opens-kosovo-airspace-to-civilian-overflights-after-15-years-idUSBREA331AV20140404


If the ME3 are that skittish, they are grounded for the duration. Especially EK.
I am presuming they have to get back to business as usual and hope the US gets all the SAMs in western Iran. Otherwise it's quite ugly.
 
Yuanes
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:07 pm

Donald Trump has said something that says there will be Iran war
Newswire: https://dangerousmother.com
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:25 pm

uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003. However, the peace afterwards will take years, possibly decades.

The countries around Iran can probably defend themselves, with some US / Israeli help. The Iranian people probably support regime change (liberalisation) as much as those in the Sudan.


This is so delusional that I don't know where to start. The US has never directly fought a modern war with an enemy anywhere near as capable as Iran. Iran isn't just stronger than Iraq and Afghanistan, they're the strongest in the Middle East. All of the Arab countries combined have a fraction of Iran's ability to project power across the region, the only thing protecting them is US presence. Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the ME by a long shot, they have perfected the art of asymmetric warfare, have a strategic location along the full length of the Persian Gulf, build all their own military equipment with virtually no foreign help, and occupy a very mountainous country with rugged terrain creating a natural fortress making invasion very difficult. There's a reason everyone fears Iran so much.

A war with Iran would be a geostrategic nightmare and easily become one of the most difficult US wars of all time. There are few countries in the world that posses the potent combination of key natural, geographic, and technological advantages that Iran has at its disposal over its Arab adversaries in a war scenario. The US is the only superpower in the world but underestimating your enemy is the first step on the path to defeat. Virtually the entire world supported Iraq against Iran alone at its weakest point and that war resulted in a stalemate in 1980 so take from that what you will. That was almost 40 years ago so imagine what it would be like today.
Last edited by sonicruiser on Wed May 22, 2019 4:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
BravoOne
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:36 pm

Yuanes wrote:
Donald Trump has said something that says there will be Iran war



Please provide your exact source if you want post this stuff. (I can hear the search engines spinning now). On the other hand Iran is fond of saying "Death to America" over and over.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:56 pm

uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003. However, the peace afterwards will take years, possibly decades.

The countries around Iran can probably defend themselves, with some US / Israeli help. The Iranian people probably support regime change (liberalisation) as much as those in the Sudan.
Your comments show how very little you know about the 2003 war and Iran for that matter. I'd guess you just remember sound bites like "Shock and Awe". The only way it would be over quickly is if nukes were used. Otherwise, you need a very very large ground unit force, which is what it took (like 300K ground personnel) for the 2003 Iraq war, and that ground force would not just build itself up overnight. A few boats and planes in the region are not enough. Plus Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey, and Afghanistan are not going to let us build up an invasion force on their soil.
 
ME720
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:18 pm

YouGeeElWhy wrote:
uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003. However, the peace afterwards will take years, possibly decades.

The countries around Iran can probably defend themselves, with some US / Israeli help. The Iranian people probably support regime change (liberalisation) as much as those in the Sudan.
Your comments show how very little you know about the 2003 war and Iran for that matter. I'd guess you just remember sound bites like "Shock and Awe". The only way it would be over quickly is if nukes were used. Otherwise, you need a very very large ground unit force, which is what it took (like 300K ground personnel) for the 2003 Iraq war, and that ground force would not just build itself up overnight. A few boats and planes in the region are not enough. Plus Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey, and Afghanistan are not going to let us build up an invasion force on their soil.


Add to that that Iranians, historically, rally around their leadership in times of crisis. Even those opposed to the regime will do so. The revolution I iran was a peoples’ revolution Unlike in other parts of the Middle East where the army took over in a coup. The Iranian regime has its followers and its supporters in Iran, unlike the situation in iraq during the years of saddam. If the US couldn’t cope with Venezuela, they will not be victorious in Iran. There will be no war, I think that they will eventually negotiate and Donald’s will claim that he has the made the deal of the millennium! To return to the main topic of this thread, a war on Iran will ground all airlines and shut airports in the region, for the duration of the conflict.
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Wed May 22, 2019 10:55 pm

uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003.


Not a comparable situation. Iran in 2019 is not comparable to Iraq in 2003 if we're going to talk about ill-advised wars. Their military isn't in recovery mode from a recent war (which was fought on the heels of a gruesome war with Iran) and there's a reasonable argument to be made that the Iranian armed forces are much more capable and loyal today than those in Iraq were sixteen years ago. This would not be the cakewalk some of the more cavalier hawks think.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
aviationaware
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Thu May 23, 2019 11:45 am

gunsontheroof wrote:
uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003.


Not a comparable situation. Iran in 2019 is not comparable to Iraq in 2003 if we're going to talk about ill-advised wars. Their military isn't in recovery mode from a recent war (which was fought on the heels of a gruesome war with Iran) and there's a reasonable argument to be made that the Iranian armed forces are much more capable and loyal today than those in Iraq were sixteen years ago. This would not be the cakewalk some of the more cavalier hawks think.


There's not going to be a war unless Iran provokes it, in which case the Ayatollah regime will be swiftly and forcefully obliterated. If there is one country in the middle east that can repeat the German success after being liberated from a nutty dictator, it's Iran. The Ayatollahs know they don't have the support of a large part of their country and winning war that way against a vastly superior enemy is just a bit tough.

Yuanes wrote:
Donald Trump has said something that says there will be Iran war


No he has not. Exodus 20:16. Trump is not a hawkish warmonger like his alternative was.
 
Olddog
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Thu May 23, 2019 11:50 am

The Thread title should be changed for US threats a menace for the world ?
When UK was in it wanted a lot of opt-outs, now it is out it wants opt-ins
 
VSMUT
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Thu May 23, 2019 12:26 pm

gunsontheroof wrote:
uta999 wrote:
I would expect any hot war with US / Iran to be over very quickly, similar to Iraq, where the regime fell in a matter of weeks in 2003.


Not a comparable situation. Iran in 2019 is not comparable to Iraq in 2003 if we're going to talk about ill-advised wars. Their military isn't in recovery mode from a recent war (which was fought on the heels of a gruesome war with Iran) and there's a reasonable argument to be made that the Iranian armed forces are much more capable and loyal today than those in Iraq were sixteen years ago. This would not be the cakewalk some of the more cavalier hawks think.


Not to mention the sheer size of the country. It will be like taking on 2 Iraq's and an Afghanistan at once, and then some. Really mountainous too. Over twice the population of Iraq. The subsequent power void in Baghdad will probably make the Sunni's attempt to take power there, and god knows what sort of chaos that will result in for the Americans to comprehend with.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 12:50 am

aviationaware wrote:
There's not going to be a war unless Iran provokes it, in which case the Ayatollah regime will be swiftly and forcefully obliterated. If there is one country in the middle east that can repeat the German success after being liberated from a nutty dictator, it's Iran. The Ayatollahs know they don't have the support of a large part of their country and winning war that way against a vastly superior enemy is just a bit tough.


Pretty surprising to assume Iran is going to be the one to start it. Not like the US has a track record of provoking wars or anything.

aviationaware wrote:
No he has not. Exodus 20:16. Trump is not a hawkish warmonger like his alternative was.


I really doubt this.
 
ME720
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 9:35 am

sonicruiser wrote:
aviationaware wrote:
There's not going to be a war unless Iran provokes it, in which case the Ayatollah regime will be swiftly and forcefully obliterated. If there is one country in the middle east that can repeat the German success after being liberated from a nutty dictator, it's Iran. The Ayatollahs know they don't have the support of a large part of their country and winning war that way against a vastly superior enemy is just a bit tough.


Pretty surprising to assume Iran is going to be the one to start it. Not like the US has a track record of provoking wars or anything.

aviationaware wrote:
No he has not. Exodus 20:16. Trump is not a hawkish warmonger like his alternative was.


I really doubt this.


It will not happen! The US and its allies in the area will be smacked big time! Will cost Donald the White House.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 11:14 am

Unfortunately the Iranian government is a threat to the world peace and to the stability of some of its neighbours like Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Sooner or later Iran will need to be freed from its regime.
 
Bricktop
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 11:28 am

Persian Gulf? I know a whole lot of folks who call it the Arabian Gulf.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 11:38 am

SCQ83 wrote:
Unfortunately the Iranian government is a threat to the world peace and to the stability of some of its neighbours like Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Sooner or later Iran will need to be freed from its regime.


Iran is no more a threat to Israel and KSA, let alone world peace, than they are to Lithuania. Let us remind ourselves who launched long-range airstrikes against whom, and from where the majority of 9/11 terrorists and, indeed, the bulk of financing for terrorism is coming from.

If anyone's a threat to peace in the ME, it's the KSA and her willing lackey - the United States of Dump.

Having said that, a popular revolution founded in any ideology that's not based on religion, would be most welcome in Iran. But that's an internal issue they'll have to settle themselves; meddling in internal politics has never yielded a lasting positive result. In the absence of said revolution, however, the best thing to happen would be for the US to disengage and let the locals duke it out themselves. Don't worry about Israel, they've enough nukes and all the best and latest military gear to deter anybody from having a go.

Finally, let's remind ourselves once again which nation has continually meddled in the affairs of other nations all around the world, instigated revolutions (including in Iran) to install a regime with business friendly ties, and happily turning a blind eye to terrorism as long as the terrorists were on their side, even going as far as morally supporting and financing said terrorists. The best example I can come up with right now are the Contra's in Nicaragua and the IRA in Ireland, but there are dozens of examples to chose from. Seriously, the hypocrisy surrounding the agitators from the US is so thick you could cut it with a knife.
Signature. You just read one.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 11:44 am

B777LRF wrote:
Iran is no more a threat to Israel and KSA, let alone world peace, than they are to Lithuania.


Israel, Saudi Arabia or the UAE are allies of the US, the EU and other Western democracies. Iran is an ally to Venezuela. Enough said.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 11:59 am

SCQ83 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
Iran is no more a threat to Israel and KSA, let alone world peace, than they are to Lithuania.


Israel, Saudi Arabia or the UAE are allies of the US, the EU and other Western democracies. Iran is an ally to Venezuela. Enough said.


You haven't said a single thing of relevance, but if that floats your boat ...
Signature. You just read one.
 
PaxPicti
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 12:04 pm

There's certainly a threat to civil aviation over the Gulf, even without an actual war.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
 
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SuseJ772
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Re: Iran conflict a threat to gulf carriers?

Sat May 25, 2019 3:03 pm

Vio wrote:
Honestly, I stopped watching the news and other propaganda machines. I'll deal with it when and IF it happens. We have so little control over things in life. Save a few bucks, learn a few skills and should catastrophe hit (natural or man made), you'll be able to handle it better than others.


This is quite the best thing I have read on the internet in a very long time.
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