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compensateme
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What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:45 pm

Through its acquisition of NW, DL acquired 16 Boeing 757-351 aircraft.





These planes gradually took over domestic flights formerly operated by the 767-322.





The 757-321 are turning 17-years-old. While this may seem young for a DL plane, they are based on 40-year-old technology and soon, DL will need to find a replacement. (Unlike its other aircraft, DL didn't bother to install pivot bins when it redid the interiors.) But what? The Boeing 737-10 can't match the capacity and there's no indication Airbus is seeking to introduce a 322. Yet DL needs the capacity due to congestion at ATL. So, what will replace the 757-351? WIll DL order the 797 and bring back dedicated domestic widebodies?
Last edited by compensateme on Tue May 21, 2019 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JamesCousins
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 7:58 pm

I imagine it will be a combination of upgauging to A332/A339s and downgauging to A321s depending on the route. If the 797 comes to fruition a Delta order seems very likely, but I don't think the lack of a direct replacement for this niche aircraft is a major issue.

Airlines as large as Delta aren't tending to order 1:1 replacements anyways, for example MD88 flying will be passed over to a mix of A319s, A320s, A321s & 739s where applicable
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:06 pm

For reference, here are DL's 753 routes as of this summer:
ATL-SEA x2
ATL-SFO x2
ATL-LAX x2
ATL-SAN x1
ATL-LAS x1
ATL-SLC x3
DTW-SEA x2
DTW-SFO x2
DTW-LAX x2
MSP-SEA x3
MSP-LAX x2
MSP-MCO x1
SEA-HNL x2
LAX-HNL x1

So basically, core DL hubs to major West Coast cities, plus a few others. In the winter, they tend to show up more on MSP/DTW/ATL to MCO.
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IWMBH
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:12 pm

I think the replacement for these aircraft will be the 797's and - possibly - the Airbus answer to the 797. The 752's can be replaced with A321's but the 753 is too big. Maybe the A332 but these birds seem better suited for long-haul.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 8:17 pm

The larger 797 variant will be perfect if it is built in remotely the rumored form. It should cost about the same to operate as a 753, but have more revenue potential.

If no 797 is built, more frequencies on A321s and 739s will have to do the job.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:18 pm

I'd like to see a 2-2-2 aircraft with a few more rows than the 753 at 185' long. A bigger wing, bigger fan engines. Exactly replicate the nose of the 757 at 1.15 scale, as that is the defining feature of the 757 for me.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:25 pm

DenverTed wrote:
I'd like to see a 2-2-2 aircraft with a few more rows than the 753 at 185' long. A bigger wing, bigger fan engines. Exactly replicate the nose of the 757 at 1.15 scale, as that is the defining feature of the 757 for me.


Why would anyone use 2 aisles in a six-across config when they could just use a narrowbody? With that necessary change, what you're asking for is darn close to a non-ER 763 with a different nose.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:49 pm

Why? More aisle seats, better circulation.
 
aviatorcraig
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:59 pm

Seats can generate revenue, Aisles cannot. 2-2-2 aint going to happen!
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:04 pm

As mentioned above, A321s and 737s.

797 will replace the 763ERs.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:06 pm

IWMBH wrote:
I think the replacement for these aircraft will be the 797's and - possibly - the Airbus answer to the 797. The 752's can be replaced with A321's but the 753 is too big. Maybe the A332 but these birds seem better suited for long-haul.

Or the 767-200neo.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:07 pm

A mixture of narrow bodies and widebodies will likely replace the 753s (albeit not for another 10 years as the 753 can’t be beat from a cost perspective). ATL is becoming gate constrained and got a lot worse with the retirement of the domestic 763s. There are only so many ATL-West Coast and ATL-Florida frequencies that DL can operate with sub 200-seat aircraft - at some point they'll have to upguage to continue growing.

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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:23 pm

DL’s 767s are 767-332. 22 is United. And a 757-321 would’ve been for PA.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:37 pm

DenverTed wrote:
Why? More aisle seats, better circulation.

Because it costs far more to build/operatte such bird while the current narrowbodies in 3-3 config do the job just fine with similar capacity.

Michael
 
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compensateme
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:55 pm

UA444 wrote:
DL’s 767s are 767-332. 22 is United. And a 757-321 would’ve been for PA.


Do you think that if PA were still around, they'd operate the 753?
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:55 pm

As boring as it is, it’ll be replaced by the same thing that is replacing the Delta 763A; the 739, or a321, with frequency.

Although the 797 is actually a viable option.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Tue May 21, 2019 11:56 pm

A322 or 797
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airzona11
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:06 am

These are very efficient planes for DL. 40 year-old technology is conjecture that implies they have outlived their useful life. They will more than likely cycle out with DL (and UA). A321s/739s have replaced domestic 763s, so as others have mentioned, more frequency. Or cycling in widebodies as they get older. 797 looks to target this space (both for Boeing and Airbus).
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:09 am

CarlosSi wrote:
As boring as it is, it’ll be replaced by the same thing that is replacing the Delta 763A; the 739, or a321, with frequency.


As one or two others have pointed out, additional frequency only works up to a point. At airports like ATL, LAX, SFO, and SEA, DL doesn't have unlimited gate space to continue adding flights, especially at peak times. Given that these are some of the markets that see the most 753s today, DL's going to have to find another high capacity replacement unless they want to decrease capacity at those constrained airports.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:12 am

More and more everyday I am so impressed by the knowledge and wisdom of a.net posters. You guys never cease to amaze me. Keep these informative threads coming I love learning.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:17 am

eamondzhang wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
Why? More aisle seats, better circulation.

Because it costs far more to build/operatte such bird while the current narrowbodies in 3-3 config do the job just fine with similar capacity.

Michael


What would you do with overhead bins? you'd need 3 rows/sets of bins instead of 2, no? only on a widebody you can justify it.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:24 am

FSDan wrote:
As one or two others have pointed out, additional frequency only works up to a point. At airports like ATL, LAX, SFO, and SEA, DL doesn't have unlimited gate space to continue adding flights, especially at peak times. Given that these are some of the markets that see the most 753s today, DL's going to have to find another high capacity replacement unless they want to decrease capacity at those constrained airports.


If there's no appropriate aircraft for direct replacement, there's no appropriate aircraft. Necessary frequencies on core markets will get added, and, if the airline has to move the timing of a small-market flight or even cancel it entirely to accommodate them, that will happen. In general that is going to be more cost-effective than flying 2-5 hour domestic flights with an internationally configured widebody.

I'm sure Delta hopes the 797 will be built, and sold at an attractive price. If not, these markets will be served by armies of A321s and 739s.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:28 am

Sometimes I think the 757-300 would have been a better replacement for the L1011's on the Florida routes than the 767-400 and wish old Delta had ordered the 757-300, but Delta did eventually make better use of the 767-400's on the European routes.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:31 am

AtomicGarden wrote:

What would you do with overhead bins? you'd need 3 rows/sets of bins instead of 2, no? only on a widebody you can justify it.

If a center set of two seats is 42" wide, explore a bin for a single 22" wide by 14" high bin. Possibly alternating tilting to either side for loading?

Will a single aisle be built again as long as the 757-300? I'm guessing the crossover point to twin aisle is less, so I'm seeing about 50m(164') max single aisle length in the future.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:36 am

17 years old? That's nothing. Delta has 757-200s that are 25+ years old and will fly with new interiors until they're not airworthy anymore (maxing out cycles)

The 753 is a rare breed. No direct replacement unless DL wants to convert 763s to a domestic configuration (all of the domestic 763s have been retired within the last few years.)
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:38 am

FSDan wrote:
CarlosSi wrote:
As boring as it is, it’ll be replaced by the same thing that is replacing the Delta 763A; the 739, or a321, with frequency.


As one or two others have pointed out, additional frequency only works up to a point. At airports like ATL, LAX, SFO, and SEA, DL doesn't have unlimited gate space to continue adding flights, especially at peak times. Given that these are some of the markets that see the most 753s today, DL's going to have to find another high capacity replacement unless they want to decrease capacity at those constrained airports.

This is true, like said at peak times they can only add so much capacity. Particularly with the desirable/peak departure times that align to specific departure banks at each end of the hubs.

DL still has a ways to go, and has the ability to route hub-agnostic connecting traffic flows over other hubs.
If ATL-LAX gets max'ed out, they can redirect more flow over other hubs, to free-up capacity for ATL-LAX O&D for example.
SLC-LAX for example has a mix of 717, 319, 738, 739, 321 flights. They could add capacity by upgauging to all 739 / 321 for example.
Even like the recently added DTW-HNL flight, that takes pressure of the DTW-SLC/SEA/LAX flights that were connecting passengers onto Hawaii and opens up capacity for more lucrative O&D and/or premium traffic. Some of the DTW-SEA/LAX flights that connected with the Hawaii flights could easily see 20-30+ people connecting onward to HNL
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:43 am

FSDan wrote:
For reference, here are DL's 753 routes as of this summer:
ATL-SEA x2
ATL-SFO x2
ATL-LAX x2
ATL-SAN x1
ATL-LAS x1
ATL-SLC x3
DTW-SEA x2
DTW-SFO x2
DTW-LAX x2
MSP-SEA x3
MSP-LAX x2
MSP-MCO x1
SEA-HNL x2
LAX-HNL x1

So basically, core DL hubs to major West Coast cities, plus a few others. In the winter, they tend to show up more on MSP/DTW/ATL to MCO.


There are 26 frequencies

11 have ATL at one end
10 touch SEA (2 are SEA-ATL)
7 touch LAX (2 are LAX-ATL)

That leaves 2x DTW-SFO and 1x MSP-MCO

So DL is using 753s as a 763 nonER replacement. Domestic high seat count to/from capacity limited hubs
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:47 am

DenverTed wrote:
Why? More aisle seats, better circulation.

More aisle = more comfort/personal space for passengers = less revenue for the airline.
So, more aisle = more expensive airfares.
Ain't gonna happen.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:52 am

compensateme wrote:
Through its acquisition of NW, DL acquired 16 Boeing 757-351 aircraft.

[...]

The 757-321 are turning 17-years-old. While this may seem young for a DL plane, they are based on 40-year-old technology and soon, DL will need to find a replacement.


So this is post-merger "when will Northwest retire its DC9s?"... :roll:
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:15 am

FSDan wrote:
For reference, here are DL's 753 routes as of this summer:
ATL-SEA x2
ATL-SFO x2
ATL-LAX x2
ATL-SAN x1
ATL-LAS x1
ATL-SLC x3
DTW-SEA x2
DTW-SFO x2
DTW-LAX x2
MSP-SEA x3
MSP-LAX x2
MSP-MCO x1
SEA-HNL x2
LAX-HNL x1

So basically, core DL hubs to major West Coast cities, plus a few others. In the winter, they tend to show up more on MSP/DTW/ATL to MCO.


Seems ripe for A321 or 739 replacement (thought I'm not sure if either are ETOPS certifield for LAX-HNL and SEA-HNL).
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Swadian
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:47 am

airzona11 wrote:
These are very efficient planes for DL. 40 year-old technology is conjecture that implies they have outlived their useful life. They will more than likely cycle out with DL (and UA). A321s/739s have replaced domestic 763s, so as others have mentioned, more frequency. Or cycling in widebodies as they get older. 797 looks to target this space (both for Boeing and Airbus).


Agreed. Delta 753s are low on cycles and high on hours. It'll be a long time before they get retired. 753s may last as long as 732s do on gravel airstrips. There simply isn't a great replacement.

1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:


Your rubbish doesn't apply to the 753 which is likely to outlast DL's older A320s (as they should, since they have better CASM). The 753 is the only recent Boeing narrowbody that can outmatch its Airbus counterparts.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:59 am

1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.
 
Elementalism
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:12 am

Going to need to hop on one of these out of MSP. Last time I was on a 757-300 was continental in 2010 Las Vegas to Houston.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:51 am

WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


I guess my question is: why would DL be in such a hurry to dump the 753's, as noted by the OP, when they have other members of their fleet that are older and likely have more cycles on average?

The 757 is always slighted for being a 40 (37) year old design, but you never hear a comment that today's (or 1991's in the case of DL) A320 is over three decades old.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:32 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


I guess my question is: why would DL be in such a hurry to dump the 753's, as noted by the OP, when they have other members of their fleet that are older and likely have more cycles on average?

The 757 is always slighted for being a 40 (37) year old design, but you never hear a comment that today's (or 1991's in the case of DL) A320 is over three decades old.

Who said DL was in a hurry to dump the 757's? Not DL for sure...
 
DenverTed
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:00 pm

There does seem to be a vacuum for a new aircraft that can seat 234 mixed class with 3.5K range like the 757-300. For B6 would fit 250, for WN would fit 265. I imagine almost every airline would buy it. Configured single aisle with a slightly wider fuselage at 180', a wider 2-2-2 at 180', or 2-3-2 at 165'? More people on one flight with the same two pilots, the logic of economy of scale.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:00 pm

:duck: Nothing will replace the 757. It will live on forever. :wave:
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:09 pm

744 and L-1011
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:10 pm

zeke wrote:
744 and L-1011


This! This is the answer!
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:19 pm

DenverTed wrote:
There does seem to be a vacuum for a new aircraft that can seat 234 mixed class with 3.5K range like the 757-300.


You're slicing the pie awfully thin with that specification... Boeing sold, what, all of 55 757-300s? Aircraft that seat ~210 passengers and those that seat ~270 also can serve the same market.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:21 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
zeke wrote:
744 and L-1011


This! This is the answer!


I myself think the DC-8-63 is the most logical replacement.
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:25 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


I guess my question is: why would DL be in such a hurry to dump the 753's, as noted by the OP, when they have other members of their fleet that are older and likely have more cycles on average?

The 757 is always slighted for being a 40 (37) year old design, but you never hear a comment that today's (or 1991's in the case of DL) A320 is over three decades old.

Who said DL was in a hurry to dump the 757's? Not DL for sure...


I don't think the CASM of a 753 will be compelling against MAX 10s or 321Neos, but I'd like to see somebody do the math on the what, (avg 1500sm?) routes on which DL operates them.

DL has more pressing fleet replacement needs, to be sure. For the 4% annual domestic growth and 2% international growth it says it's targeting it doesn't have near enough aircraft on order to replace the MD-88, MD-90, and oldest 757/A320 by 2025. So, yeh, Delta 753s will age out/cycle out.
 
Elementalism
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:26 pm

DC6, think of the fuel savings.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:31 pm

klm617 wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
zeke wrote:
744 and L-1011


This! This is the answer!


I myself think the DC-8-63 is the most logical replacement.


:thumbsup: Fuselage commonality will lead to significant efficiencies





Wait - is this (finally) a "true 757 replacement"?
 
DenverTed
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:34 pm

If the A321 beats the 739 just on a couple of rows extra economy of scale, an aircraft bigger than the A321 should be just as compelling. How far they can stretch the A321 before it is rotation constrained and the small wing are what a 753 replacement would supersede.
 
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 5:36 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
zeke wrote:
744 and L-1011


This! This is the answer!


I think it would have been impolite in present company to suggest a southwest 737.
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OB1504
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Wed May 22, 2019 8:44 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


Ignore him. He’s Airliners.net’s most prolific troll, constantly derailing threads with his bizarre obsession with 1988.
 
klm617
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Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Thu May 23, 2019 12:24 am

OB1504 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


Ignore him. He’s Airliners.net’s most prolific troll, constantly derailing threads with his bizarre obsession with 1988.


And here I thought that was my title.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 1510
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Thu May 23, 2019 12:27 am

klm617 wrote:
OB1504 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


Ignore him. He’s Airliners.net’s most prolific troll, constantly derailing threads with his bizarre obsession with 1988.


And here I thought that was my title.

:lol: :rotfl: :rotfl:

KLM, while some of your posts are rather loaded, many of them are objective and actually informative and have taught me new information.
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
N809FR
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2010 6:10 am

Re: What Will Replace DL's 757-351?

Thu May 23, 2019 1:01 am

OB1504 wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
A320's are 35 year old technology and are on average 21 years old in DL' s fleet. Same goes for the A321N's if you remove the GTF's (and realise they are brand new).

The 738's are of a similar age and are based on 50 year old technology with some mid 90s tweaks. 739's are newer age wise but are also based off the same platform.

Yet the 1988 Factor does not exist... :roll:

No it doesn't. Wake up and smell the roses buddy, it's 2019.


Ignore him. He’s Airliners.net’s most prolific troll, constantly derailing threads with his bizarre obsession with 1988.

He’s by far my favorite troll here. Not even on my foe list, I enjoy the comedic value rather than the blatant stupidity some of these people spout on a daily basis.

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