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VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 7:55 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
okay, "what if" A380 would be smaller with circular fuselage 6+(8-9) with something like 748 OEW (210-215 instead of 277) and so smaller, more efficient wing with good aspect ratio?


Ugh?

A380 production stops in 2021.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 8:00 am

again my bad english.
"what if" would be from the beginning, not now
 
VV
Posts: 780
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 9:00 am

Armadillo1 wrote:
again my bad english.
"what if" would be from the beginning, not now


Ah okay. Basically we are talking here about what would have happened if Airbus had taken another path.

You are right, the amount spent for the A380 (and A400M) might have been better spent differently.

Just imagine the following scenario.
  • in 2004 Airbus proceeded with the very first iteration of A350 (it is now called A330neo) with GEnx and Trent 1000 (now called 7000 for neo)
  • followed by a real long-range twin aisle 400 seater in 2014
  • a mid-sized twin aisle medium range aircraft in 2024

Well yeah, it might have been better.
However, it happened the way it happened and the A380 will stop production in 2021.
 
yabeweb
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 9:30 am

kitplane01 wrote:
RawSushi wrote:
The A380 in and of itself was not a commercial success, but so what?

Hindsight is 20/20. With an unpredictable future, it's normal for companies to make multiple bets. Some work out better than expected, others fail. The A380 was part of Airbus's strategy to cover the full range of the market. Some bets paid off better than expected (e.g. the A320), the A380 didn't, but still it was part of an overall successful strategy that brought it from being a new upstart to being an anchor member of a duopoly. If market conditions had turned out differently from what it is today, it could have still become a commercial success. It's a great plane. Passengers love it. No it wasn't profitable, but there's no need to bash it.

Faury explained it well here:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/faury-defends-airbus-forecasting-after-a380-disappoi-458423/


Boeing was looking at the same data, and screaming the Airbus's view was crazy. And they were right. It's not like a "who knew, there was no way to tell". It's more like "Your major competitor got it right, and you didn't".

To be fair it was a guesstimate, and it could have gone the other way, of course saying NOW Beoing was right is easy, it was def not that Black or White back then, unless we consider Boeing Intelligent and Airbus Dumb.

But hey, may be at Airbus people are stupid, yet they manage make planes that don't fall from the sky by themselves :P
Last edited by yabeweb on Tue May 28, 2019 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 9:33 am

no a380 at all is one variant.
with a380, but another design another possible variant.

and imo should be discussed in different topic
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 12:29 pm

VV wrote:
In reality I agree with you.

There is no doubt Airbus spent too much time and money on the A380. It is very difficult to say that the aircraft has been a success. If there is any success, it is about building Europe's stronger economic activity.

Toulouse and surroundings have grown explosively in the 1990s and 2000s. The region went pass through the critical size to be a little bit less dependent on aeronautics. Hamburg has also grown significantly thanks to the A380 program (and A400M).

The programs (A380 and A400M) have allowed to keep skilled workers in Europe and to continue some research and development there. It reminds me the European hypersonic project "Hermes" in the 1980s and 1990s. Europe spent billions of dollars for a vehicle that never flew.

In a sense, the A380 (and A400M) has been a very successful economic project, but the aircraft itself is not a success.

If you wish, the two programs (A380 & A400M) is similar to the huge infrastructure program like the one in discussion in the US. It is just about spending money for the greater good.

I agree with you, yabeweb, that the A380 was not a successful aircraft.
However, it is a successful economic project.
It is a kind of science project at school. You build a "volcano" for the sake of building it to educate children.

Interesting.

What you describe as a "successful economic project" in the US would be called a "make-work project" or a "jobs program", both pejoratives.

The A400M would be more acceptable, because the end result was an asset for the military, and it is a Constitutional responsibility of the government to defend the country.

Big infrastructure is also acceptable, since the end result is an asset owned by the government and used to stimulate economic activity, and the related activities are largely outsourced to corporations so the business community is onside with it.

As you can tell from the responses, openly providing public funds so civil corporations can compete against other corporations is not condoned, instead pretty much every other form of benefit is allowed, because of course corporations are people.

I'm not endorsing one system over the other, just explaining how I think various things get interpreted.
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VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 1:40 pm

Revelation wrote:

....

As you can tell from the responses, openly providing public funds so civil corporations can compete against other corporations is not condoned, instead pretty much every other form of benefit is allowed, because of course corporations are people.
....


In reality, the aid didn't help to "compete" because there has never been a big enough market for VLA.

The truth is that A380 holds an absolute monopoly in the VLA market since several years and yet it fails miserably. It holds a monopoly in an extremely small and shrinking market.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 1:45 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Your bus argument is irrelevant as articulated busses and double deckers present unique challenges in their own way, such as boarding/de-boarding times for something that has to make a stop every so many minutes and drive in narrow streets of a city. That's why cities have busses, metro's, trams, monorails or trains. Busses are just one of many transport solutions in an urban transportation setting, while intercontinental travel doesn't offer that large a variety of solutions.


But if you expand the thought experiment a little, you would find that all the above argument applied to the A380 (albeit not in the same degree).

The thing is, all these hypothetical are just that. Does any company really want to keep a mill stone around their neck hoping for the paradigm to shift in their favor. If and when the time comes when those engines are ready for the show, they can create a new airframe to make it work. The current iteration of the A380 would probably not be it.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 5:00 pm

Waterbomber2 wrote:
I can give you an example for my argument.
Lockheed Martin is working on a micro fusion reactor, but even that is the size of a full size container.
That is something that the A380 could swallow, but not something that you can put on a B787.

I Googled 'micro fusion reactor lockheed' and came up with the following:

It’s no secret that our Skunk Works® team often finds itself on the cutting edge of technology. As they work to develop a source of infinite energy, our engineers are looking to the biggest natural fusion reactor for inspiration – the sun. By containing the power of the sun in a small magnetic bottle, we are on the fast track to developing nuclear fusion reactors to serve the world’s ever-growing energy needs.


Nuclear fusion is the process by which the sun works. Our concept will mimic that process within a compact magnetic container and release energy in a controlled fashion to produce power we can use.


That means we can replace a device that must be housed in a large building with one that can fit on the back of a truck.

https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/pr ... usion.html

Sounds like there is no reason this could not go into a 787 sized or even smaller aircraft.
No doubt, when the time comes it will be a clean sheet design.
 
deltadc9
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 5:04 pm

Rifitto wrote:
A programme that cost a sh*tload of money ; 25-30 bn

only 250 units sold at a "digestible" loss (as Tom Enders described it)
out of 1300 estimated

the whole mega project depending on one custumers (EK) which bought the half of the global fleet

very big aircraft that only few airports with special infrastructures and modified ones (wider taxiways ,bigger hangars ,reinforced tarmac ...)
can handle it

a quad turbofan with very heavy body which makes it a fuel guzzler ,expensive to maintain ,and very expensive to reconfigure
,despite being so called "efficient and a technological marvel"

it needs to be filled to the brim to make profit ,which makes it a pain in the ass in the low season ,
even the smaller the cheaper and the older b77w has way better economics and more flexibility
no wonder , beside EK no other airline has made a second order

it has no second market ,only a single frame bought by hifly it's rate of use is very low ,and no P2F converstion potential as well

very short lifespan ,somes are already scraped at age of 12 ,which turns it to a nightmare for the owners and airlines

a lot of airlines are already starting getting rid of it or planning for replacement ,
LH will send it back 6 a380 to airbus and keep the b748s ! AF gonna keep only 5 ...

given all the features listed above ,we can say with all confidence that the almighty A380 was an overwhelming success

case closed


I always found it suspicious that the Airbus estimate for the 380 was approximately the total number of 747s delivered up to that point.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
deltadc9
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 5:56 pm

VV wrote:
AirwayBill wrote:
Based on the unreal a.net post count on whatever A380-related topic, I think one can say that the program has been a huge success.

:bigthumbsup:


The A380 has always triggered a very emotional response. It is an extremely interesting phenomenon that could potentially be the subject of a psychological research.

I would not compare the aircraft to any religion, but the symptoms triggered by a discussion on the A380 ressemble to that in a religious debate.

It is all about love and belief, when the reality is that 747-8 Intercontinental is not built anymore and A380 production will end in 2021.

What the fracas?


What? The 380 will end in 2021, the backlog for the 747 is 21 Jets which equals 42 months of production, and that is assuming no more orders which is a stretch considering the real possibility of a few more freighter orders. That puts the 747 current orders being filled in 3.5 years, at the end of 2022, after the last 380 rolls off the line.

Also, the 747i is still offered for sale, and few more passenger and VIP orders are not completely out of the question, so you cant say they are not being built which implies they wont take orders, there are just no unfilled orders, BIG DIFFERENCE.

That means the 747 will have been produced in SEVEN consecutive decades. There is no VLA comparison to that besides the B-52 maybe. It is very possible a few 747's will be flying 100 years after the first its first flight. That is just mind blowing to me anyway.

Boing will milk that cow until then udders fall off. Airbus is simply not in the position to do that. Apples and oranges.

I have nothing against the 380, it is an amazing aircraft as are all of Airbus' planes, but the 380 was simply not needed and not worth the risk and losses. From a business perspective the 380 was just too risky and had too many other motivations when profit should have been the only one.

Just the facts.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
ewt340
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 6:07 pm

They said that for production cost Airbus barely broke even. Which mean that they might not much money out of it BUT it gave them one important thing, wake up call and knowledges.

The other thing is to understand that the A380 created lots of decent paying jobs across EU and great reputation for Airbus. It's passengers favourite for its size and comfort. Compared to Boeing's obsessions of tiny seats.

So in a way, they escape unscratched for their bad decisions. And if we compared this to other projects like C-Series, SS100, MC-21 or ARJ21. A380 is definitely a decent success.
 
ewt340
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 6:27 pm

deltadc9 wrote:
Rifitto wrote:
A programme that cost a sh*tload of money ; 25-30 bn

only 250 units sold at a "digestible" loss (as Tom Enders described it)
out of 1300 estimated

the whole mega project depending on one custumers (EK) which bought the half of the global fleet

very big aircraft that only few airports with special infrastructures and modified ones (wider taxiways ,bigger hangars ,reinforced tarmac ...)
can handle it

a quad turbofan with very heavy body which makes it a fuel guzzler ,expensive to maintain ,and very expensive to reconfigure
,despite being so called "efficient and a technological marvel"

it needs to be filled to the brim to make profit ,which makes it a pain in the ass in the low season ,
even the smaller the cheaper and the older b77w has way better economics and more flexibility
no wonder , beside EK no other airline has made a second order

it has no second market ,only a single frame bought by hifly it's rate of use is very low ,and no P2F converstion potential as well

very short lifespan ,somes are already scraped at age of 12 ,which turns it to a nightmare for the owners and airlines

a lot of airlines are already starting getting rid of it or planning for replacement ,
LH will send it back 6 a380 to airbus and keep the b748s ! AF gonna keep only 5 ...

given all the features listed above ,we can say with all confidence that the almighty A380 was an overwhelming success

case closed


I always found it suspicious that the Airbus estimate for the 380 was approximately the total number of 747s delivered up to that point.


Well it's a different time back then. If you told Airbus that the newest A321 would have range of 4700 nmi they would probably put you into mental hospital at the time.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 6:34 pm

Well, a few more successes like the A380 and Airbus will be gone, just like the A380.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Antarius
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 6:53 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
okay, "what if" A380 would be smaller with circular fuselage 6+(8-9) with something like 748 OEW (210-215 instead of 277) and so smaller, more efficient wing with good aspect ratio?


It would still be slaughtered by the 77W and later the a350 and 777X.

Passenger Quads are dead.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
Antarius
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 6:55 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Well, a few more successes like the A380 and Airbus will be gone, just like the A380.


The a380 is the exception for Airbus though. The 345/6 were as well, but they were derivatives; lump them in with the 748. Airbus has the 320 family, which is the #1 player in the NB market now. The a330 still sells some and there are a thousand flying. The a350 has been successful.

They screwed up on the a380, but their portfolio is extremely strong.
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 7:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
They said that for production cost Airbus barely broke even.

Actually Airbus only broke even with respect to production cost for one or two years, and definitely not for the life of the program.

The early ramp up years were huge losses like every program, then they eventually got to break even for one or two years, then fell back to "digestible losses" that they and EK decided weren't that digestible after all.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Tue May 28, 2019 9:01 pm

deltadc9 wrote:
...
What? The 380 will end in 2021, the backlog for the 747 is 21 Jets which equals 42 months of production, and that is assuming no more orders which is a stretch considering the real possibility of a few more freighter orders. That puts the 747 current orders being filled in 3.5 years, at the end of 2022, after the last 380 rolls off the line.

Also, the 747i is still offered for sale, and few more passenger and VIP orders are not completely out of the question, so you cant say they are not being built which implies they wont take orders, there are just no unfilled orders, BIG DIFFERENCE.

That means the 747 will have been produced in SEVEN consecutive decades. There is no VLA comparison to that besides the B-52 maybe. It is very possible a few 747's will be flying 100 years after the first its first flight. That is just mind blowing to me anyway.
...
Just the facts.


The last 747-8 Intercontinental was delivered in December 2017 to an unidentified customer. There is no more in the backlog for the passenger version.

Boeing wrote-off some deferred production cost of the 747-8 at one point, it was certainly related to the 747-8 Intercontinental. I mean most probably they consider no more order is expected for 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger version).

There are however 21 747-8F in the backlog.

The total orders for 747-8 Intercontinental: 47 ordered and all delivered
The total orders for 747-8F: 107 of which 86 have been delivered

Just the facts.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 12:34 am

VV wrote:
The last 747-8 Intercontinental was delivered in December 2017 to an unidentified customer. There is no more in the backlog for the passenger version.

Boeing wrote-off some deferred production cost of the 747-8 at one point, it was certainly related to the 747-8 Intercontinental. I mean most probably they consider no more order is expected for 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger version).

There are however 21 747-8F in the backlog.

The total orders for 747-8 Intercontinental: 47 ordered and all delivered
The total orders for 747-8F: 107 of which 86 have been delivered

Just the facts.


A very careful parsing of the facts. The 748 was a derivative of the 747 program. The program as a whole has 1,572 orders and 1,551 deliveries so far. To focus only on the 748 is like assessing the A340 program and limiting the discussion the A340-500 only.

Just the facts.
 
VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:15 am

9Patch wrote:
VV wrote:
The last 747-8 Intercontinental was delivered in December 2017 to an unidentified customer. There is no more in the backlog for the passenger version.

Boeing wrote-off some deferred production cost of the 747-8 at one point, it was certainly related to the 747-8 Intercontinental. I mean most probably they consider no more order is expected for 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger version).

There are however 21 747-8F in the backlog.

The total orders for 747-8 Intercontinental: 47 ordered and all delivered
The total orders for 747-8F: 107 of which 86 have been delivered

Just the facts.


A very careful parsing of the facts. The 748 was a derivative of the 747 program. The program as a whole has 1,572 orders and 1,551 deliveries so far. To focus only on the 748 is like assessing the A340 program and limiting the discussion the A340-500 only.

Just the facts.


And why do you say that?
 
Antarius
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:18 am

VV wrote:
9Patch wrote:
VV wrote:
The last 747-8 Intercontinental was delivered in December 2017 to an unidentified customer. There is no more in the backlog for the passenger version.

Boeing wrote-off some deferred production cost of the 747-8 at one point, it was certainly related to the 747-8 Intercontinental. I mean most probably they consider no more order is expected for 747-8 Intercontinental (passenger version).

There are however 21 747-8F in the backlog.

The total orders for 747-8 Intercontinental: 47 ordered and all delivered
The total orders for 747-8F: 107 of which 86 have been delivered

Just the facts.


A very careful parsing of the facts. The 748 was a derivative of the 747 program. The program as a whole has 1,572 orders and 1,551 deliveries so far. To focus only on the 748 is like assessing the A340 program and limiting the discussion the A340-500 only.

Just the facts.


And why do you say that?


It is true. the 747-8, like the a345/6, like the a310, like the 736, like the a318 were derivatives of successful models that flopped. The a310 did better (relative to models sold at the time, so it could be argued that it didn't flop, which I can also agree with)

Wildly different cost propositions than a clean sheet failure like the L1011 or the a380.
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VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:25 am

Antarius wrote:
VV wrote:
9Patch wrote:

A very careful parsing of the facts. The 748 was a derivative of the 747 program. The program as a whole has 1,572 orders and 1,551 deliveries so far. To focus only on the 748 is like assessing the A340 program and limiting the discussion the A340-500 only.

Just the facts.


And why do you say that?


It is true. the 747-8, like the a345/6, like the a310, like the 736, like the a318 were derivatives of successful models that flopped. The a310 did better (relative to models sold at the time, so it could be argued that it didn't flop, which I can also agree with)

Wildly different cost propositions than a clean sheet failure like the L1011 or the a380.


But nobody asks the question.
Obviously, the freighter version will continue to sell and keeps the 747-8 program running.

If Boeing accepts to reduce 747-8's range the the passenger version could start again with NMA's engines For short haul high density transport.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:46 am

VV wrote:
And why do you say that?

To give the a complete account of what happened.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 3:09 am

yabeweb wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
Why do we always have to think people lie? I mean he could have said nothing, and it is not PR that counts in this case as investors sure do not buy PR, if he says it was successful for them, it was, we might not like it, it might have been a commercial failure, but it could mean a good roi in the longterm for other reason.
...

Sometimes it seems like poeple disagree just to disagree.....


VV wrote:
He didn't lie. He only repeated what he was told to say.

Or he sincerely believes what he said, in which case maybe we can think his belief is wrong.



When he says the A380 is a success, he's saying something that's false and that he knows to be false. We call that a lie.

He could have said lots of true and useful things: "We learned a lot building the A380" or "The A380 was a huge technical achievement" or ...
but instead he chose to lie.

That is your take on it, i respect it but disagree.
Neither you or I have the data to say if he is right or wrong, the difference is you try to make it sounds like you have the real answer, while all I am saying is, we really do not know, and let's not argue for tha sake of it.


Airbus says they invested $25B into the program, and never made a profit. I think THEY have the data, and I believe THEM. It's OK if you don't believe me (some rando on the internet) but I don't understand why you would fail to agree with Airbus on an Airbus plane.

This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/
 
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kitplane01
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 3:14 am

ewt340 wrote:
They said that for production cost Airbus barely broke even. Which mean that they might not much money out of it BUT it gave them one important thing, wake up call and knowledges.

The other thing is to understand that the A380 created lots of decent paying jobs across EU and great reputation for Airbus. It's passengers favourite for its size and comfort. Compared to Boeing's obsessions of tiny seats.
[\quote]

So errors in that statement

Airlines pick the seat configuration, not Boeing.
It's not that the didn't make money, it's that they lost $25 Billion.
This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/

ewt340 wrote:
So in a way, they escape unscratched for their bad decisions. And if we compared this to other projects like C-Series, SS100, MC-21 or ARJ21. A380 is definitely a decent success.


It we compare to Apollo 13, the Challenger explosion, and other rockets that exploded it was a success????
It's a worse failure than any of the programs you cited because it lost $25 billion and those didn't.

And they only escaped unscathed if you think (1) They don't mind losing $25B and (2) They had nothing better they could have done with $25B except lose it.
 
Antarius
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 3:23 am

VV wrote:
Antarius wrote:
VV wrote:

And why do you say that?


It is true. the 747-8, like the a345/6, like the a310, like the 736, like the a318 were derivatives of successful models that flopped. The a310 did better (relative to models sold at the time, so it could be argued that it didn't flop, which I can also agree with)

Wildly different cost propositions than a clean sheet failure like the L1011 or the a380.


But nobody asks the question.
Obviously, the freighter version will continue to sell and keeps the 747-8 program running.

If Boeing accepts to reduce 747-8's range the the passenger version could start again with NMA's engines For short haul high density transport.


I disagree. Boeing hit that conclusion a couple of years ago and Airbus did recently as well.

Why fly a 748i when you can fly a high density 777X? And where would you fly them? Just look at MH. They have a380s they can't use and yet save for Hi Fly, no one seemingly wants an aftermarket a a380.
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Nomadd
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 3:58 am

Keep digging. There's got to be a pony in there somewhere.
 
ewt340
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 5:25 am

kitplane01 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
They said that for production cost Airbus barely broke even. Which mean that they might not much money out of it BUT it gave them one important thing, wake up call and knowledges.

The other thing is to understand that the A380 created lots of decent paying jobs across EU and great reputation for Airbus. It's passengers favourite for its size and comfort. Compared to Boeing's obsessions of tiny seats.
[\quote]

So errors in that statement

Airlines pick the seat configuration, not Boeing.
It's not that the didn't make money, it's that they lost $25 Billion.
This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/

ewt340 wrote:
So in a way, they escape unscratched for their bad decisions. And if we compared this to other projects like C-Series, SS100, MC-21 or ARJ21. A380 is definitely a decent success.


It we compare to Apollo 13, the Challenger explosion, and other rockets that exploded it was a success????
It's a worse failure than any of the programs you cited because it lost $25 billion and those didn't.

And they only escaped unscathed if you think (1) They don't mind losing $25B and (2) They had nothing better they could have done with $25B except lose it.


Are you sure they lost all $25 billion of those money or couple billions they couldn't recoup from the development program? Cause losing $25 billions and losing couple billions are 2 different thing there buddy.

Also, compared to C-series which ended up in Airbus hand for free. or SS100, MC-21 and ARJ21. Compared to those program, A380 is a damn success I said.
 
yabeweb
Posts: 77
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 5:55 am

kitplane01 wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:



When he says the A380 is a success, he's saying something that's false and that he knows to be false. We call that a lie.

He could have said lots of true and useful things: "We learned a lot building the A380" or "The A380 was a huge technical achievement" or ...
but instead he chose to lie.

That is your take on it, i respect it but disagree.
Neither you or I have the data to say if he is right or wrong, the difference is you try to make it sounds like you have the real answer, while all I am saying is, we really do not know, and let's not argue for tha sake of it.


Airbus says they invested $25B into the program, and never made a profit. I think THEY have the data, and I believe THEM. It's OK if you don't believe me (some rando on the internet) but I don't understand why you would fail to agree with Airbus on an Airbus plane.

This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/

I am sorry but you might want to re read my first thread, I do believe Airbus, and they said it was not a failure, neither them NOR me said it was a commercial success.

25 billion is only ONE part of the equation, let me make an example that might make you understand my point.

NeXT Computers was a utter failure, slow sales and it was on the verge of collapsing, BUT, NeXT cCmputers is what made Apple today what it is (trillion dollar company), while I am sure that Steve Jobs was NOT happy about the way NeXT was going, he was very happy about the outcome, so he whould have said NeXT was a success in a way.

Is the 380 a commercial success? I repeat myself NO, does it means the program as a whole was not a success? I do not have the data, there is infrastructures there's people there's agreement there are a lot of other details that I am NOT aware of, BUT, it the CEO says it was a success I have no hard time to believe it!

Again, people are arguing for the sake of it, it was the point of my first post, he ( the C.E.O.) said it was a success and people complain about the commercial side of it, wich he did not say it was commerciallty successful, he could not, the plane sold 1/4th of their expectation and only because of Emirates, so it was a commercial failure!

The program? I do not know, but I stick with the guy, the 380 was a success.
 
VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 6:19 am

Well we know it is not a success compared to the targeted sales.

If their target was 200 deliveries then it would have been a huge success.

I think a success is measured against the target, whatever that target is.
 
VV
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 6:42 am

If the target was to break 747's "monopoly" in the quad VLA market the A380 is a success.
But that market does not exist anymore, which makes the situation quite strange.
A380 holds today an absolute monopoly in a market that doesn't exist. Therefore its production has to stop in 2021.
 
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enzo011
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 7:01 am

VV wrote:
Well we know it is not a success compared to the targeted sales.

If their target was 200 deliveries then it would have been a huge success.

I think a success is measured against the target, whatever that target is.



This is getting silly now. This thread should have been done after a couple of pages, not still be going for 6. The CEO never said it was a financial or sales success but for the company, Airbus only, it forced them to learn valuable lessons and they are better for it.

I will repeat, regarding sales, finances, forecasting and investors it has not been a success. For Airbus they have taken the lessons from those failures and learned from them to make the subsequent programs a success. No groundings (yet) and very few in service reliability problems.
 
yabeweb
Posts: 77
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:22 am

enzo011 wrote:
VV wrote:
Well we know it is not a success compared to the targeted sales.

If their target was 200 deliveries then it would have been a huge success.

I think a success is measured against the target, whatever that target is.



This is getting silly now. This thread should have been done after a couple of pages, not still be going for 6. The CEO never said it was a financial or sales success but for the company, Airbus only, it forced them to learn valuable lessons and they are better for it.

I will repeat, regarding sales, finances, forecasting and investors it has not been a success. For Airbus they have taken the lessons from those failures and learned from them to make the subsequent programs a success. No groundings (yet) and very few in service reliability problems.

Exactly, but for some poeple it is hard to swallow that even a failure (as in sales)can means something good for the company, go figure....
 
VV
Posts: 780
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:58 am

enzo011 wrote:
VV wrote:
Well we know it is not a success compared to the targeted sales.

If their target was 200 deliveries then it would have been a huge success.

I think a success is measured against the target, whatever that target is.



This is getting silly now. This thread should have been done after a couple of pages, not still be going for 6. The CEO never said it was a financial or sales success but for the company, Airbus only, it forced them to learn valuable lessons and they are better for it.

I will repeat, regarding sales, finances, forecasting and investors it has not been a success. For Airbus they have taken the lessons from those failures and learned from them to make the subsequent programs a success. No groundings (yet) and very few in service reliability problems.


If the target was, "Let's make a program that will have some commercial and technical failures such that we get better next time" then it is a success.

I do not think it was the target and thus it is a failure in general terms.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 12:00 pm

yabeweb wrote:
Exactly, but for some poeple it is hard to swallow that even a failure (as in sales)can means something good for the company, go figure....


Then it leads to suggest that the same people would not consider the MAX issue is a good thing for Boeing as it refocuses them on safety. I would call those folks pragmatists. Boeing could have learn the same lessons with a lot fewer deaths. Airbus could have learned the same lessons without losing do much capital. Imagine how much improvement to the A320 or A330 line with that much money. And they would probably have learned the same lessons.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
yabeweb
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 12:59 pm

bikerthai wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
Exactly, but for some poeple it is hard to swallow that even a failure (as in sales)can means something good for the company, go figure....


Then it leads to suggest that the same people would not consider the MAX issue is a good thing for Boeing as it refocuses them on safety. I would call those folks pragmatists. Boeing could have learn the same lessons with a lot fewer deaths. Airbus could have learned the same lessons without losing do much capital. Imagine how much improvement to the A320 or A330 line with that much money. And they would probably have learned the same lessons.

bt

Max issue is more a FAA lesson than a Boeing one.... see there? Boeing invested money to make FAA better... :P, not a good ROI :P
 
Delta777Jet
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 1:25 pm

If it was such a success how about Airbus pays back the credits they took which now the tax payers have to pay !
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XT6Wagon
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 1:55 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
no a380 at all is one variant.
with a380, but another design another possible variant.

and imo should be discussed in different topic


The current A380 size is as small in capacity as makes sense. That said, it has way too much wing and wingbox for "future" versions. It would have done better, but it still would have its lunch money stolen by the 777, 787, and A350.
 
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PW100
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:13 pm

bikerthai wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
Exactly, but for some poeple it is hard to swallow that even a failure (as in sales)can means something good for the company, go figure....


Then it leads to suggest that the same people would not consider the MAX issue is a good thing for Boeing as it refocuses them on safety. I would call those folks pragmatists. Boeing could have learn the same lessons with a lot fewer deaths. Airbus could have learned the same lessons without losing do much capital. Imagine how much improvement to the A320 or A330 line with that much money. And they would probably have learned the same lessons.

bt


Could they (bolded quote)?

Imagine in what hole Airbus would have found themselves if the CATIA FUBAR would have hit the A350 and/or A320neo program(s) . . .
Of course they did not aim for that with the A380, but it was a by-product and hugely important lessons learned from the A380 experience.

Mind you, I think the biggest lessons Airbus learnt on the A380 were:
a) how important it is to have matching business and design systems throughout their organisation (and suppliers);
b) how important effective industrialization is to their programs;
c) effective industrialization needs much more attention in early design phase;
c) how national interests affect effective industrialization;
d) how customization affects effective industrialization;

I guess most of that had to be learnt the hard way.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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PW100
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:16 pm

Delta777Jet wrote:
If it was such a success how about Airbus pays back the credits they took which now the tax payers have to pay !

Based on a 250 frame RLI, most of that would have been repaid by now . . .
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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par13del
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:54 pm

If that were the case why would Airbus say that they think they do not need to repay RLI since the program is now cancelled?
Something is not adding up....
 
Armadillo1
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 2:59 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/emirate ... 00-2012-11
even more funny link from 2012
Emirates Airline Wants A Triple-Decker Jet That Seats 800 Passengers
 
9Patch
Topic Author
Posts: 312
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 6:51 pm

PW100 wrote:
Based on a 250 frame RLI, most of that would have been repaid by now . . .

Doubtful.
What are you basing this on?
Show us the numbers.
 
9Patch
Topic Author
Posts: 312
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 6:56 pm

Armadillo1 wrote:
https://www.businessinsider.com/emirates-wants-triple-deck-jet-for-800-2012-11
even more funny link from 2012
Emirates Airline Wants A Triple-Decker Jet That Seats 800 Passengers


That poorly written article is from 2012!

I wonder what Emirates wants now--779?
 
tropical
Posts: 95
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 7:04 pm

I wonder if other equally questionable statements made by A or B bosses over the years had/ would have resulted in as popular a thread as this one (or even merited a thread being created in the first place).

The A380 really does seem to stir all kinds of emotions and ruffle feathers amongst A-netters ;)
 
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Revelation
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:01 pm

bikerthai wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
Exactly, but for some poeple it is hard to swallow that even a failure (as in sales)can means something good for the company, go figure....

Then it leads to suggest that the same people would not consider the MAX issue is a good thing for Boeing as it refocuses them on safety. I would call those folks pragmatists. Boeing could have learn the same lessons with a lot fewer deaths. Airbus could have learned the same lessons without losing do much capital. Imagine how much improvement to the A320 or A330 line with that much money. And they would probably have learned the same lessons.

I think you've captured the essence of the situation.

Some times businesses and people just need to learn lessons and they come at immense cost.

Some times we wonder if we couldn't have learned the same lesson at a much lower cost.

In some cases they simply could not due to circumstances not under our control, and in others they could have, with a reasonable amount of foresight.

The thing is, I think most of us would not have called the cases that could have been avoided with a reasonable amount of foresight "successes", even if we learned things we needed to learn in the process.
Last edited by Revelation on Wed May 29, 2019 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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deltadc9
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:11 pm

Here is the way I see it

748- Low risk-low reward with the possibility of doing financial damage to Airbus VLA program (Every 747 sale hurt the 380 program)
380- High risk-low reward with no possibility of doing financial damage to Boeing VLA program (747 sales would not have benefited much with the absence of the 380)

I have always wondered, if Boeing had not done the 748, would all or most of the 47 748 passenger orders gone to the 380? If so would that have been enough to gain some momentum for the program and prevent some or most of the 380 cancellations? Or at least made it possible for Airbus not lose so much money? Was this part of Boeings motivation for the 748?

Seems to me Boeing may have eroded just enough 380 sales to really hurt the 380 program.

Seems like it MIGHT have been at least partly personal and emotional on the manufacturers part also. Both wanted the prestige of a top of the line "Cadillac" to make the lower models seem better by DNA association. Pride and envy on both sides?

Reminds me of Chevy making just enough Z28s in 1967 (602) to bump Ford and Chrysler into a war they would lose on the Trans Am racing series in 68 and 69. Camaro never outsold the Mustang, but Ford spent a lot of money answering the Camaro and almost every Camaro sale was an unsold Mustang. Eventually the Mustang went away (Mustang II) and the Camaro soldiered on along with its Firebird F-Body sibling. GM saw crazy sales numbers in the late 70s and Ford woke up. Ford then made a Mustang come back in the 80s with a clean sheet design that stood toe to toe to the Camaro and most importantly the IROC Z and once again, Camaro cant outsell the Mustang to this day.

This is what Airbus needed to do and still needs to do, just concentrate on a 777 light weight competitor at the top end, the 350. They just overshot the top end by too much with the 380, and screwed around with the 350 half ass versions too long when it should have been job 1. Instead they built the 350 AND the 380 for basically one market. Boing would have been stuck with the legacy 777 competing with an all composite 350 much earlier and the long in the tooth 747.

This was the opportunity cost of the 380 program, so many 777 and probably 747 sales that could have went their way if they had built the right plane and just one plane, the 350. Opportunity costs in addition to the actual money lost on the books combines to make the 380 a very unsuccessful program.

In my opinion.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
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kitplane01
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:40 pm

ewt340 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
They said that for production cost Airbus barely broke even. Which mean that they might not much money out of it BUT it gave them one important thing, wake up call and knowledges.

The other thing is to understand that the A380 created lots of decent paying jobs across EU and great reputation for Airbus. It's passengers favourite for its size and comfort. Compared to Boeing's obsessions of tiny seats.
[\quote]

So errors in that statement

Airlines pick the seat configuration, not Boeing.
It's not that the didn't make money, it's that they lost $25 Billion.
This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/



It we compare to Apollo 13, the Challenger explosion, and other rockets that exploded it was a success????
It's a worse failure than any of the programs you cited because it lost $25 billion and those didn't.

And they only escaped unscathed if you think (1) They don't mind losing $25B and (2) They had nothing better they could have done with $25B except lose it.


Are you sure they lost all $25 billion of those money or couple billions they couldn't recoup from the development program? Cause losing $25 billions and losing couple billions are 2 different thing there buddy.

Also, compared to C-series which ended up in Airbus hand for free. or SS100, MC-21 and ARJ21. Compared to those program, A380 is a damn success I said.


Airbus won’t give an exact figure. Airbus says they spent $25 billion on development lost money on early production years, made a little bit in middle production years, and lost money on later production years. Pretty much the whole business press takes a guess that they lost about $25 billion. I’ve already provided citations. If you don’t believe that, let’s stop talking.
Last edited by kitplane01 on Wed May 29, 2019 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:45 pm

yabeweb wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
yabeweb wrote:
That is your take on it, i respect it but disagree.
Neither you or I have the data to say if he is right or wrong, the difference is you try to make it sounds like you have the real answer, while all I am saying is, we really do not know, and let's not argue for tha sake of it.


Airbus says they invested $25B into the program, and never made a profit. I think THEY have the data, and I believe THEM. It's OK if you don't believe me (some rando on the internet) but I don't understand why you would fail to agree with Airbus on an Airbus plane.

This is not some opinion question ... it's data from Airbus about Airbus. As reported by Wikipedia, the NY Times, Forbes, and a million others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A380
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/busi ... -a380.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed ... s-obvious/

I am sorry but you might want to re read my first thread, I do believe Airbus, and they said it was not a failure, neither them NOR me said it was a commercial success.

25 billion is only ONE part of the equation, let me make an example that might make you understand my point.

NeXT Computers was a utter failure, slow sales and it was on the verge of collapsing, BUT, NeXT cCmputers is what made Apple today what it is (trillion dollar company), while I am sure that Steve Jobs was NOT happy about the way NeXT was going, he was very happy about the outcome, so he whould have said NeXT was a success in a way.

Is the 380 a commercial success? I repeat myself NO, does it means the program as a whole was not a success? I do not have the data, there is infrastructures there's people there's agreement there are a lot of other details that I am NOT aware of, BUT, it the CEO says it was a success I have no hard time to believe it!

Again, people are arguing for the sake of it, it was the point of my first post, he ( the C.E.O.) said it was a success and people complain about the commercial side of it, wich he did not say it was commerciallty successful, he could not, the plane sold 1/4th of their expectation and only because of Emirates, so it was a commercial failure!

The program? I do not know, but I stick with the guy, the 380 was a success.


I will agree the NeXT computer was a revolution. But it didn’t lose $25 billion, and the a380 was not a revolution I think there is some truth in what you’re saying, but I just can’t imagine that the education airbus received was worth $25 billion.

Imagine if, at the beginning of the program, you told airbus they were going to lose $25 billion but learn some things about building airplanes. I believe they would’ve rejected that deal.

By the way, the NeXT computer is a perfect example of the thing you’re trying to illustrate. :-)
Last edited by kitplane01 on Wed May 29, 2019 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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kitplane01
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Wed May 29, 2019 8:50 pm

tropical wrote:
I wonder if other equally questionable statements made by A or B bosses over the years had/ would have resulted in as popular a thread as this one (or even merited a thread being created in the first place).

The A380 really does seem to stir all kinds of emotions and ruffle feathers amongst A-netters ;)


I think there are two reasons for this:

Some people have different value systems. Some of us think the financial profit and losses are important. Others value other things. This seems pretty fundamental.

A very few people are in denial about facts. And it’s hard to discuss when these few people base conclusions on mistaken facts.
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