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9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:01 pm

SomebodyInTLS wrote:
"AN AIRCRAFT DELIVERY". The only time there will be NO repayment is if NO aircraft are delivered. It doesn't have to be a SUCCESSFUL programme - merely a LAUNCHED programme. In which case the terms are that full repayment is eventually due. Despite the one time part of this was written off for one programme, you have shown no proof that it is not in the contracts as I stated.

So I've show no proof, except for the one time I showed proof. Got it!

And the number of times that Airbus has taken RLI and subsequently failed to deliver a single aircraft is...?

Dude, when you're in hole, stop digging!
 
WayexTDI
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:00 pm

9Patch wrote:
SomebodyInTLS wrote:
"AN AIRCRAFT DELIVERY". The only time there will be NO repayment is if NO aircraft are delivered. It doesn't have to be a SUCCESSFUL programme - merely a LAUNCHED programme. In which case the terms are that full repayment is eventually due. Despite the one time part of this was written off for one programme, you have shown no proof that it is not in the contracts as I stated.

So I've show no proof, except for the one time I showed proof. Got it!

And the number of times that Airbus has taken RLI and subsequently failed to deliver a single aircraft is...?

Dude, when you're in hole, stop digging!

Dude, you're the one in the hole and digging deeper.
SomebodyInTLS is right: what you quoted said "The obligation to repay the LA/MSF is therefore triggered only if there is an aircraft delivery". Meaning all Airbus programs will have to repay since all, so far, have delivered at least one frame.

Keep spinning your own words, you're digging deep and fast.
 
9Patch
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:54 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
Dude, you're the one in the hole and digging deeper.
SomebodyInTLS is right: what you quoted said "The obligation to repay the LA/MSF is therefore triggered only if there is an aircraft delivery". Meaning all Airbus programs will have to repay since all, so far, have delivered at least one frame.

Keep spinning your own words, you're digging deep and fast.


Dude, SomebodyIN TLS wrote:

"AN AIRCRAFT DELIVERY". The only time there will be NO repayment is if NO aircraft are delivered. It doesn't have to be a SUCCESSFUL programme - merely a LAUNCHED programme. In which case the terms are that full repayment is eventually due.

This is not true. What I'm taking issue with is what's in bold, not whether one delivery triggers repayment. That's just just a distraction.

Read further in the document:
6.235. Finally, the French A350XWB LA/MSF contract does not make specific provision for what is to occur in the event of discontinuation of the A350XWB programme. However, as the obligations to pay levies, interest and royalties are dependent on successful deliveries, were the programme to be discontinued, no new payment obligations would be triggered (though Airbus would have a continued obligation to pay any levies or royalties due on any aircraft already delivered).


If deliveries end prematurely, Airbus can ask that the loan be forgiven. Relief was granted for part of the A340 program. Airbus is in negotiations for A380 launch aid forgiveness. I'm certain some will be granted as well.
 
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Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 4:55 pm

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/air ... -decision/ is an interesting new article quoting Airbus CEO Faury.

Since we all now agree sensationalist click bait titles are normal, I used the same title as the origin web site did.

He praises the A380 for the technology it delivered for A350 and future programs and is sad to have had to shut it down but says in years the decision will not be regretted.

He also says he regrets the problems in the A320 ramp up and points out that there are no free A320 slots till 2024-5 so the idea that they can capitalize on the MAX tragedy is false.

One quote of interest:

Faury also is steadfast in his belief that the A380 was the right thing to do.

“As a manufacturer, we think it’s a success”, he proclaimed. “The commercial success we had envisaged has not come to the expected magnitude because the world has changed, because the twin long-range A350-type planes are very successful, they come with flexibility and point-to-point capacity. Things have moved forward.”

So, the Airbus CEO is now in full agreement with the competition's marketing strategy of the early 2000s.

Nicole Piasecki, vice president, Business Strategies and Marketing for Commercial Airplanes, also noted passengers prefer the convenience of frequent departures and don't want to travel on circuitous routings through one or two connecting hubs. "More frequencies and point-to-point services: these two market conditions are what we call 'fragmentation,' and data shows passengers prefer it," Piasecki said.

In other words, the market demands more new and more frequent nonstop flights, not increased airplane capacity or double-decker flight decks.

"Growth in air travel over the past 15 years has been met entirely by an increase in new nonstop markets and by frequency growth—not by an increase in average airplane size. This is the fundamental essence of Boeing Commercial Airplanes' product strategy," Piasecki said.

Ref: http://www.boeing.com/news/frontiers/ar ... i_ca1.html

To me this is an interesting convergence of opinions.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:07 pm

Interesting article.

In my mind what is often overlooked, when "go-for-launch decision" on A380 was taken Airbus was not the powerhouse it is today. Soem call it a vanity proiject, but I think that the guts and commitment to get A380 done, was an important part in building Airbus into the great airline manufacturer it is today. Prior to that it was still seen as a me-too / wannabee builder with a rather incomlete line-up (in the large capacity sector).

While the A380 program itself did not bring what Airbus expected of it, apart from tech and industrialization spin off, it did help build Airbus firmly on the airliner map.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:11 pm

Well they could have just gone straight to the A350 rather than build the A380. Maybe they would have built the A350 a little bit wider to allow 10 abreast 18" seats, so the A350 could scale up to 80 meters with higher passenger capacity than the 747-400. That would have been a 747 killer! The A380 was a vanity program thought up in the 1980's, because Airbus executives were envious of Boeing's monopoly of he top end of the airliner market. By the time they launched the A380, the market for such large 4-engined planes was already disappearing.
 
David_itl
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
So, the Airbus CEO is now in full agreement with the competition's marketing strategy of the early 2000s.


Yet Boeing decided that this apparent non-existent market needed to be entered into as well unless you are deciding that the B748 is now a very large twin. What Boeing gets out of a terrible decision I don't know but Airbus had a learning experience for future products.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:18 pm

PW100 wrote:
Interesting article.

In my mind what is often overlooked, when "go-for-launch decision" on A380 was taken Airbus was not the powerhouse it is today. Soem call it a vanity proiject, but I think that the guts and commitment to get A380 done, was an important part in building Airbus into the great airline manufacturer it is today. Prior to that it was still seen as a me-too / wannabee builder with a rather incomlete line-up (in the large capacity sector).

While the A380 program itself did not bring what Airbus expected of it, apart from tech and industrialization spin off, it did help build Airbus firmly on the airliner map.


Yes, nothing puts you on the map and cements your image as a successful company, like spending $25+ billion on a commercial flop that sells only 251 copies.

Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?

The answer is a resounding NO!

Just like Boeing wouldn't have done the 748.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:26 pm

If Airbus had a proper grip on stuff, an awful lot of money would have been saved and the entry into service would been a lot smoother, Then throw in the scenario of not building the wing for 600T payload in readiness for the -900 which should have improved the economics for airlines.
 
Strato2
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:33 pm

The Superjumbo helped Airbus to avoid the pitfalls on the more important A350 XWB. Boeing did not get anything from the 747-8 except a big dose of red ink on the bottom line.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:35 pm

I also agree that the A380 put Airbus at Boeing's level in people's mind, and that's not something easy to measure.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:35 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Well they could have just gone straight to the A350 rather than build the A380. Maybe they would have built the A350 a little bit wider to allow 10 abreast 18" seats, so the A350 could scale up to 80 meters with higher passenger capacity than the 747-400. That would have been a 747 killer! The A380 was a vanity program thought up in the 1980's, because Airbus executives were envious of Boeing's monopoly of he top end of the airliner market. By the time they launched the A380, the market for such large 4-engined planes was already disappearing.

Taking a biiiiiggggggg stretch here, I think the A380 can be seen as Europes modern-day Apollo program. A vanity project of epic proportions but the industrial skills learned and technology developed from the project are invaluable not only to Airbus but the whole commercial aviation sector and will be applied for decades.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:40 pm

They only way to save the A380 would have been to reengine it early with the same engine generation the 787 and A350 had available. Only that would have enabled it to undercut the cost per seat of the smaller twins because of it's size.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:43 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
By the time they launched the A380, the market for such large 4-engined planes was already disappearing.

Yet Boeing made the same mistake with 747-8.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:49 pm

A programme whose execution was flawed? Yes. A vanity project? No, because when the decisions were being made there was as yet no strong evidence to support the view that airliners would no longer get bigger to support ever larger numbers of travellers...as they had done since the start of commercial flying. Maybe the timing was off and later development would have a lighter composite wing and more efficient engines. Maybe if the ME3 had ordered fewer planes, other airlines would have bought and operated larger, viable fleets. There are plenty of "what ifs".

Without the A380 the 747 would have continued to enjoy monopoly pricing, even if the numbers sold were modest.

Next time you are walking or being bussed miles/kilometres to stand ZZ99 to board your 250 seat twin, or rushing to get to gate A01 to catch a connection, take time to reflect on the advantages of the A380 in terms of a more compact terminal footprint...or do so when your flight is up to only 35th in line for takeoff!
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:54 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Well they could have just gone straight to the A350 rather than build the A380. Maybe they would have built the A350 a little bit wider to allow 10 abreast 18" seats, so the A350 could scale up to 80 meters with higher passenger capacity than the 747-400. That would have been a 747 killer! The A380 was a vanity program thought up in the 1980's, because Airbus executives were envious of Boeing's monopoly of he top end of the airliner market. By the time they launched the A380, the market for such large 4-engined planes was already disappearing.

I think Airbus thought it had the largest twin that the engines of the day would support in the A330 and had the 777 market covered via A340.

I don't think one could get to 744 capacity in a twin till the current day via GE9X and 742 capacity with GE90.

I suppose with perfect hindsight Airbus could have built a 777 clone and been better off, but that wasn't clear in the day.

I have argued that a well tuned 8+6 double decker would have been a better choice than the 10+8 A380 but Airbus had talked itself into targeting 550-650 pax which in hindsight was a mistake.

I have yet to find a justification for why they thought the target should be the 550-650 band when the existing proof points was 744 and it was clear 744 wasn't selling like it used to.

David_itl wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So, the Airbus CEO is now in full agreement with the competition's marketing strategy of the early 2000s.


Yet Boeing decided that this apparent non-existent market needed to be entered into as well unless you are deciding that the B748 is now a very large twin. What Boeing gets out of a terrible decision I don't know but Airbus had a learning experience for future products.

If one argues that A380 allowed Airbus to blunt the 744 market then one can argue 748i allowed Boeing to blunt the A380 market.

Airbus surely would have liked the business that 748i/748F/777F ended up getting.

Strato2 wrote:
The Superjumbo helped Airbus to avoid the pitfalls on the more important A350 XWB. Boeing did not get anything from the 747-8 except a big dose of red ink on the bottom line.

I agree that 748 was a mistake, but to say it didn't get anything is IMO incorrect. It blunted A380 sales, it keeps its freighter dominance intact, it will have a lot of lucrative after market dollars from 748i/747F/AF1 support. If one can say A380 had less-tangible impact than the balance sheet it's not very objective to say 748 didn't have any less-tangible impact. Both made huge holes in the balance sheet, but A380's hole was 5x-10x bigger depending on who you believe for cost figures.

I think if Boeing was making $0 from the last UPS 748Fs coming off the line they would have not made them. One can't accuse Boeing of being money grubbing when it comes to MAX then say they were building 747F at a loss, that doesn't make sense.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:54 pm

9Patch wrote:
Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?


But how would they get that sort of knowledge without going through the pain and screw-ups? Sure, if they could somehow magically avoid all the mistakes they wouldn't make the mistakes, but that is a circular argument.

The A380 was an extremely expensive way to learn how not to do certain things, and maybe how to do other things, but it's difficult to imagine a significantly less expensive way. Learning production lessons on a higher volume aircraft wouldn't necessarily be all that much better.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:01 pm

PITingres wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?


But how would they get that sort of knowledge without going through the pain and screw-ups? Sure, if they could somehow magically avoid all the mistakes they wouldn't make the mistakes, but that is a circular argument.

The A380 was an extremely expensive way to learn how not to do certain things, and maybe how to do other things, but it's difficult to imagine a significantly less expensive way. Learning production lessons on a higher volume aircraft wouldn't necessarily be all that much better.

That's like saying my second marriage is such a success because my first marriage was such a failure.

I suppose that's something that can be true, but I would argue there are better ways to go about it, especially when we consider the point Faury is making about passing tech on to the A350.

IMO a lot of the tech that went into A350 could have been proven out other ways.

It's more believable from the non-tech, organizational structure point of view, but again, it's far from optimal.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:05 pm

afterburner wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
By the time they launched the A380, the market for such large 4-engined planes was already disappearing.

Yet Boeing made the same mistake with 747-8.


The 748-8 was a modernization of an existing in production aircraft. It didn't have to pay back $25 billion in development costs. It's facilities were paid for decades ago. Had the 787 program been done more in house than an attempt to out Airbus Airbus by having subcontractors in control of specifications, the 787 program would not have had a 4 year delay. That delay forced Boeing to move engineers off the 747-8 program and onto the 787 program, delaying the 747-8 program too. While it didn't sell many passenger planes, it did undermine Airbus' ability to charge higher prices on the A380. The A380 delays forced Airbus to cancel its problematic double main deck A380F program. The fact that there was a viable very large modernized 747-8 freighter to take up the slack from the delay and later cancellation of the A380F program, meant that by the time Airbus could have offered an A380F, the 747-8F had already taken the need for those orders.

Killing off the A380F ultimately cut down the the number of A380's built and the potential for an A380 P2F program. This helped kill the residual value of used A380's and a secondary market for older passenger A380's.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:19 pm

There is no doubt that the A380 is a great technical achievement, but a business failure for Airbus. Businesses often make huge mistakes in judgment of the market, the world's economy can destroy demand (like the 2008 Economic Crash), technology can make big leaps frogs over you, your product has flaws that hurt sales. As sales of the A380 collapsed and those of the A350 soared, Airbus had to make the right decision for their shareholders and end production of the A380.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:22 pm

David_itl wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So, the Airbus CEO is now in full agreement with the competition's marketing strategy of the early 2000s.


Yet Boeing decided that this apparent non-existent market needed to be entered into as well unless you are deciding that the B748 is now a very large twin. What Boeing gets out of a terrible decision I don't know but Airbus had a learning experience for future products.


Of course, being a derivative, the 748 probably cost less than 1/5th of what the A380 did. So it was far less financially damaging to the company.
Boeing was hedging their bets when they should have had the courage of their convictions.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:28 pm

Strato2 wrote:
The Superjumbo helped Airbus to avoid the pitfalls on the more important A350 XWB. Boeing did not get anything from the 747-8 except a big dose of red ink on the bottom line.

Talk about putting lipstick on a pig!
That's a very expensive lesson on how to avoid pitfalls and a far larger does of red ink than the 748 incurred.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:33 pm

I think the A380 was the right approach at the time, given that Boeing was printing money with its 744.

Airbus' mistake, in hindsight, was to double down on their concept by expecting the real winner to be a future stretch, the A380-900. That led to the -800 being overbuilt and overweight. Irritatingly, they made the same mistake by HGW-ing the initial A340-600 and making that model the only version available.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:34 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I think the A380 can be seen as Europes modern-day Apollo program. A vanity project of epic proportions but the industrial skills learned and technology developed from the project are invaluable not only to Airbus but the whole commercial aviation sector and will be applied for decades.


It wasn't supposed to be a vanity program. It was supposed to be a money making venture. To compare it to Apollo is nonsense.

Anything Airbus developed for the A380 they could have developed for the A350, without suffering the staggering losses.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:41 pm

They recycled (or upgraded) quite a bit of A380 technologies on the A350. Like systems and cockpit stuff up to the funny cockpit windows and shape that finally got the "eyeliner" to make it look different because it looks so A380.
 
IWMBH
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:42 pm

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. it was a commercial failure, but it didn't hurt Airbus to bad.
 
Noshow
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:45 pm

Plus the big Emirates orders for the A380 that hadn't been expected in planning before made up for some of the other expected orders that did not materialize. So China did not order big numbers - that was a bad surprise. China instead opted to create many small airlines for it's huge market that are narrow body operators today and only slowly grow into widebody terrain now.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:50 pm

Wildlander wrote:
A programme whose execution was flawed? Yes. A vanity project? No, because when the decisions were being made there was as yet no strong evidence to support the view that airliners would no longer get bigger to support ever larger numbers of travellers...as they had done since the start of commercial flying. Maybe the timing was off and later development would have a lighter composite wing and more efficient engines. Maybe if the ME3 had ordered fewer planes, other airlines would have bought and operated larger, viable fleets. There are plenty of "what ifs".

Without the A380 the 747 would have continued to enjoy monopoly pricing, even if the numbers sold were modest.

Next time you are walking or being bussed miles/kilometres to stand ZZ99 to board your 250 seat twin, or rushing to get to gate A01 to catch a connection, take time to reflect on the advantages of the A380 in terms of a more compact terminal footprint...or do so when your flight is up to only 35th in line for takeoff!


Are you serious?

By the time the A380 was launched, the A340-600 with 747-200 passenger capacity but more cargo capacity, had killed off 747-400 passenger orders. The 777-300 had entered service as a direct 747-100/200 replacement with similar range and speed but much better fuel economy. The 777-300ER was in development. Airbus should have thrown in the towel on the A340-500 and A340-600. In comparison to the 777's the longer A340's were structurally heavier. They needed a wider twin engined wide body to compete against the 777-300ER not the overweight A380-800 with the potential stretch to a 900 model built in. Orders for the passenger 747-400 were finished by the late 90's long before the A380 could enter service.

The A380 didn't just need new double decked gates at airport terminals; it needed upgraded taxiways and bridges strong enough to handle the weight of an A380-800 or even the projected weight of an A380-900 to remain compatible with future models. Ironically newer airports like IAH, DFW, and DEN have taxiway infrastructure to handle A380's but not the passenger demand to justify large numbers of A380 operations. Constrained airports like JFK barely had the space for A380's to maneuver and even had a collision between an AF A380 and a regional jet. SFO actually moved a runway to support A380 operations.
Last edited by flyingclrs727 on Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:00 pm

IWMBH wrote:
What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. it was a commercial failure, but it didn't hurt Airbus to bad.


Easier to do when you don't have to pay back all the development costs. The A380 FAL has much more interior volume than an A350 or A320 line need. The logistics capability to transport large A380 assemblies is not needed by other programs that use the Beluga and Beluga XL.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:04 pm

The 777-300ER and A340-600 gears put more local per tire weight on the apron than the A380. The A340-600 was even longer than the A380. Single deck boarding, even apron boarding, is not much of a problem.
Practically the A380 did mainly concern airlines and airports because of passenger luggage handling carussels needed and in case of irregular operations or flight cancellations.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:13 pm

I have always said... Whether the Lord lets me go to Heaven or Hell... Just please, please, give me the ability to eternally rationalize!
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:15 pm

9Patch wrote:
David_itl wrote:
Revelation wrote:
So, the Airbus CEO is now in full agreement with the competition's marketing strategy of the early 2000s.


Yet Boeing decided that this apparent non-existent market needed to be entered into as well unless you are deciding that the B748 is now a very large twin. What Boeing gets out of a terrible decision I don't know but Airbus had a learning experience for future products.


Of course, being a derivative, the 748 probably cost less than 1/5th of what the A380 did. So it was far less financially damaging to the company.
Boeing was hedging their bets when they should have had the courage of their convictions.


The 748i is akin to the 764, a345/a346. Didnt sell that well, but also cost a fraction of a clean sheet.
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:16 pm

ltbewr wrote:
There is no doubt that the A380 is a great technical achievement, but a business failure for Airbus.


I would like to see that CEO go on record with the value of A380 launch aid that isn't going to get paid back, and the billions of Euros of losses the program has generated. Then he can try to convince people that the value of lessons outweighed the costs.
 
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:17 pm

I must admit that I'm a bit perplexed still by the lack of success of the A380 with airlines... I understand that the lack of sales lead Airbus to shut down the program - which is a proper business decision to be taken in such circumstances. What I'm baffled by is how IATA can state that air travel with double to 8.1B travellers and yet demand for the A380 is still not there in contrast to this figure! Especially in today's day and age when everyone talks about Climate Change, carbon offsetting, and operating with good environmental stewardship, how can airlines justify growth in the future through, as an example, multiple daily B787 flights between 2 cities rather than just launch the A380!
 
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Wildlander
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:17 pm

The disappointment/failure of the A3456 was another story. Yes the A380 required wider airport investment that could now be viewed as unnecessary or uneconomic, but the A346/777-300/77X and 747-8 all benefitted in some way from these developments. Perhaps Airbus should have been more receptive to a wing design with a bigger vertical winglet or even a folding wing mechanism, but again this is with the benefit of hindsight. I maintain that the concept of a double decker was a sound one when much higher 'than 747/777) seat counts were still envisaged.

As noted by Flying clrs727, the cancellation of the A380F was a body-blow to the programme. Had it survived, then the 747-8 might been terminated long ago, not to mention the quasi total absence of an Airbus freighter product line after the mass UPS/Fedex migration to Boeing freighters as a consequence of the A380F being canned. I wouldn't like to have been the one to have to make decisions that were to have such far-reaching consequences.
 
MSPNWA
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:18 pm

I don't expect him to say anything different, even if the truth is that Airbus regrets the decision. It's today's corporate speak.

From an aviation enthusiasts perspective, I'm so glad the A380 was built. I only wish there were more of them. But when viewed from a business standpoint, it shouldn't have been built. There's no getting around that.

Revelation wrote:
That's like saying my second marriage is such a success because my first marriage was such a failure.


Good analogy. One can get it right the first time. It doesn't rationalize the mistakes made. It only means you learned from them. Small victory.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:29 pm

IWMBH wrote:
What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. it was a commercial failure, but it didn't hurt Airbus to bad.

That may be true for your immune system, but not for your wallet.
 
smartplane
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:32 pm

The narrative has changed to reflect current reality. But also a warning shot to the UN and their environmental cohorts, that Airbus are responding to market demand, not creating the market for fragmentation, duplication, frequency and P2P.

A & B are already in full lobbying mode to resist some of the more radical changes being proposed in CORSIA workshops, which could reverse air passenger numbers, and result in consolidation of airlines and movements.
 
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PW100
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 7:42 pm

9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Interesting article.
In my mind what is often overlooked, when "go-for-launch decision" on A380 was taken Airbus was not the powerhouse it is today. Soem call it a vanity proiject, but I think that the guts and commitment to get A380 done, was an important part in building Airbus into the great airline manufacturer it is today. Prior to that it was still seen as a me-too / wannabee builder with a rather incomlete line-up (in the large capacity sector).
While the A380 program itself did not bring what Airbus expected of it, apart from tech and industrialization spin off, it did help build Airbus firmly on the airliner map.

Yes, nothing puts you on the map and cements your image as a successful company, like spending $25+ billion on a commercial flop that sells only 251 copies.
Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?

The answer is a resounding NO!

Just like Boeing wouldn't have done the 748.


And yes, not unexpectedly, the content of my remark went totally over your head.
No worries, that's fine. At least I tried to bring over my thoughts, having closely followed the commercial airline business since late ninety-ninetees.
Perhaps some can (somewhat) appreciate my contribution.
Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:21 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
By the time the A380 was launched, the A340-600 with 747-200 passenger capacity but more cargo capacity, had killed off 747-400 passenger orders. The 777-300 had entered service as a direct 747-100/200 replacement with similar range and speed but much better fuel economy. The 777-300ER was in development. Airbus should have thrown in the towel on the A340-500 and A340-600. In comparison to the 777's the longer A340's were structurally heavier. They needed a wider twin engined wide body to compete against the 777-300ER not the overweight A380-800 with the potential stretch to a 900 model built in. Orders for the passenger 747-400 were finished by the late 90's long before the A380 could enter service.

As per my #13, I think Airbus thought A340NG would give the 777 family adequate competition. I think they were a bit too strongly influenced by carriers that didn't trust ETOPS and didn't see the "leap" that the GE90 would be taking for the 77W family just a few years later.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I think the A380 was the right approach at the time, given that Boeing was printing money with its 744.

Airbus' mistake, in hindsight, was to double down on their concept by expecting the real winner to be a future stretch, the A380-900. That led to the -800 being overbuilt and overweight. Irritatingly, they made the same mistake by HGW-ing the initial A340-600 and making that model the only version available.

I do agree they were way too aggressive in betting on H2H traffic growth and insisting the A380 would need to target 550-650 pax. It'd be very interesting to see what they would have gotten if they hadn't aimed so high.
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9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:30 pm

PW100 wrote:
9Patch wrote:
PW100 wrote:
Interesting article.
In my mind what is often overlooked, when "go-for-launch decision" on A380 was taken Airbus was not the powerhouse it is today. Soem call it a vanity proiject, but I think that the guts and commitment to get A380 done, was an important part in building Airbus into the great airline manufacturer it is today. Prior to that it was still seen as a me-too / wannabee builder with a rather incomlete line-up (in the large capacity sector).
While the A380 program itself did not bring what Airbus expected of it, apart from tech and industrialization spin off, it did help build Airbus firmly on the airliner map.

Yes, nothing puts you on the map and cements your image as a successful company, like spending $25+ billion on a commercial flop that sells only 251 copies.
Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?

The answer is a resounding NO!

Just like Boeing wouldn't have done the 748.


And yes, not unexpectedly, the content of my remark went totally over your head.
No worries, that's fine. At least I tried to bring over my thoughts, having closely followed the commercial airline business since late ninety-ninetees.
Perhaps some can (somewhat) appreciate my contribution.


I went back to your original post to see what have might gone over my head.

Wasn't the A380 a me too project, the biggest VLA double decker quad? YES.

When production ceases next year will Airbus go back to having an incomplete line? NO.

Airbus was already a great airline manufacturer in a duopoly before the A380. They were firmly on the map with the hugely successful A320 and A330 programs. Even the A340 looked formidable back then. It was this very success that fed the hubris and led to this very bad business decision.
 
Baldr
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Sun Dec 01, 2019 10:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
PITingres wrote:
9Patch wrote:
Whenever I read these kinds of threads, I always ask myself this question, if Airbus had to do it over, knowing what they know now, would they have done the A380 regardless?


But how would they get that sort of knowledge without going through the pain and screw-ups? Sure, if they could somehow magically avoid all the mistakes they wouldn't make the mistakes, but that is a circular argument.

The A380 was an extremely expensive way to learn how not to do certain things, and maybe how to do other things, but it's difficult to imagine a significantly less expensive way. Learning production lessons on a higher volume aircraft wouldn't necessarily be all that much better.

That's like saying my second marriage is such a success because my first marriage was such a failure.

I suppose that's something that can be true, but I would argue there are better ways to go about it, especially when we consider the point Faury is making about passing tech on to the A350.

IMO a lot of the tech that went into A350 could have been proven out other ways.

It's more believable from the non-tech, organizational structure point of view, but again, it's far from optimal.


The question should rather be what cost more in the end (i.e. both financially and reputationally):

The A380/A350/A320neo/A330neo or the 787/747-8/737MAX/777X/737MAX_grounding ?

-

The competitive business for Large Commercial Airliners (LCA) can be viewed through game-theoretical modeling, where decisions by one player are dependent on the moves expected of the other player. For example, in game-theory terms the response from Boeing vis-à-vis Airbus was very likely based up on the view that the A3XX/A380 was threat to Boeing's continued supremacy in the widebody category.

Boeing's initial response to the A3XX concept was the discontinued 747-500X/-600X programme that was initiated in order to stop the A380 dead in its tracks before it got traction in the market. Once the A380 was launched, Boeing responded with first, the Sonic Cruiser concept, and later, the 7E7/787 and 747-8.

Now, Boeing has a long history of seriously underestimating Airbus, primarily starting with the A320 in the mid 1980s. Boeing’s response was initially the 7J7 concept and only later, the 737NG. Boeing's early weight estimates for the 787 -- which turned out to be wildly optimistic -- clearly indicates that they thought the 787 would be so superior that it would do to the A330 what the 777-300ER already was doing to the A340-600. In fact, Boeing's strategy was designed to force Airbus to have to respond to the 777-300ER and 787, with one programme. It appears that Boeing never thought possible that a re-engined and updated A330 could compete with the 787 and that the primary response from Airbus (A350) would be able to compete nicely with both the larger models 787 and 777W follow-on.

Boeing estimates that the 787 will be 30,000 lb to as much as 40,000 lb lighter than the Airbus A330-200, depending on which of the following three 787 configurations is chosen


https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/boeing-sets-pace-for-composite-usage-in-large-civil-aircraft

With the A350, Randy Tinseth & Co* seem to have actually believed in their own delusional talking points and probably never imagined how easily Airbus has been managing to increase the capability of both the A350-900 and A350-1000. In fact, based on their hard-earned lessons learned on the 787 (weight etc.), Boeing may have initially believed that Airbus would overshoot A350 XWB weight estimates by about the same percentage points as what Boeing experienced occurring with the 787. It's interesting to note, however, that nobody seems to ask the question why Airbus so easily and cheaply were able to neo the A330, while Boeing was not able to do the same ting with the 777-300ER.

From the 787 and onwards, it appears that Boeing's game-theoretic models have lacked the compilation of comprehensive product dossiers detailing every aspect of their arch-rival’s aircraft that might possibly have concluded, that not only would a re-engined and updated A330 be able to compete with the 787, but that neither a souped-up 737NG and a re-winged 777 would be able to, respectively, compete properly with a re-engined A320 and a state-of-the-art, large composite twin family, nor any future derivatives of that family (i.e. A350-2000 etc.).

* “The A350-800 has failed, the -1000 has failed and all they have is a one-trick pony with the -900,” Tinseth told reporters. “The A330 was withdrawn 10 years ago because it couldn’t compete with the [Boeing] 777. The A350 has failed with the same engine [that Airbus is proposing to use for the A330neo.”


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2014-07-14/boeing-debuts-dream-niner-and-slams-airbus-plans
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:21 am

Baldr wrote:
The question should rather be what cost more in the end (i.e. both financially and reputationally):

The A380/A350/A320neo/A330neo or the 787/747-8/737MAX/777X/737MAX_grounding ?
-
The competitive business for Large Commercial Airliners (LCA) can be viewed through game-theoretical modeling, where decisions by one player are dependent on the moves expected of the other player. For example, in game-theory terms the response from Boeing vis-à-vis Airbus was very likely based up on the view that the A3XX/A380 was threat to Boeing's continued supremacy in the widebody category.

Boeing's initial response to the A3XX concept was the discontinued 747-500X/-600X programme that was initiated in order to stop the A380 dead in its tracks before it got traction in the market. Once the A380 was launched, Boeing responded with first, the Sonic Cruiser concept, and later, the 7E7/787 and 747-8.

Now, Boeing has a long history of seriously underestimating Airbus, primarily starting with the A320 in the mid 1980s. Boeing’s response was initially the 7J7 concept and only later, the 737NG. Boeing's early weight estimates for the 787 -- which turned out to be wildly optimistic -- clearly indicates that they thought the 787 would be so superior that it would do to the A330 what the 777-300ER already was doing to the A340-600. In fact, Boeing's strategy was designed to force Airbus to have to respond to the 777-300ER and 787, with one programme. It appears that Boeing never thought possible that a re-engined and updated A330 could compete with the 787 and that the primary response from Airbus (A350) would be able to compete nicely with both the larger models 787 and 777W follow-on.

Boeing estimates that the 787 will be 30,000 lb to as much as 40,000 lb lighter than the Airbus A330-200, depending on which of the following three 787 configurations is chosen


https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/boeing-sets-pace-for-composite-usage-in-large-civil-aircraft

With the A350, Randy Tinseth & Co* seem to have actually believed in their own delusional talking points and probably never imagined how easily Airbus has been managing to increase the capability of both the A350-900 and A350-1000. In fact, based on their hard-earned lessons learned on the 787 (weight etc.), Boeing may have initially believed that Airbus would overshoot A350 XWB weight estimates by about the same percentage points as what Boeing experienced occurring with the 787. It's interesting to note, however, that nobody seems to ask the question why Airbus so easily and cheaply were able to neo the A330, while Boeing was not able to do the same ting with the 777-300ER.

From the 787 and onwards, it appears that Boeing's game-theoretic models have lacked the compilation of comprehensive product dossiers detailing every aspect of their arch-rival’s aircraft that might possibly have concluded, that not only would a re-engined and updated A330 be able to compete with the 787, but that neither a souped-up 737NG and a re-winged 777 would be able to, respectively, compete properly with a re-engined A320 and a state-of-the-art, large composite twin family, nor any future derivatives of that family (i.e. A350-2000 etc.).

* “The A350-800 has failed, the -1000 has failed and all they have is a one-trick pony with the -900,” Tinseth told reporters. “The A330 was withdrawn 10 years ago because it couldn’t compete with the [Boeing] 777. The A350 has failed with the same engine [that Airbus is proposing to use for the A330neo.”


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2014-07-14/boeing-debuts-dream-niner-and-slams-airbus-plans


I was waiting for the whataboutism to commence:

What about the 787?
What about the 77X?
What about the 748?
What about the 737 MAX grounding?

Good job working them ALL into one post in a thread about Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury not regretting the A380 decision.

Airbus has had many successes, the A380 is not one of them.
 
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par13del
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:39 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I think the A380 was the right approach at the time, given that Boeing was printing money with its 744.

If Boeing was printing money with the 744 why did they do the 777-300, besides, I thought the A340-600 was also produced to further kill the 747 and compete with the 777W. Money was being printed by the 737 program, and even that was under threat by the A320-XX.

Airbus wanted to produce an a/c larger than the A340-600, which was already basic match for the 747, personally I do not think the A380 was a reaction to anything missing in Airbus product line up, it was an expansion.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:23 am

Baldr wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PITingres wrote:

But how would they get that sort of knowledge without going through the pain and screw-ups? Sure, if they could somehow magically avoid all the mistakes they wouldn't make the mistakes, but that is a circular argument.

The A380 was an extremely expensive way to learn how not to do certain things, and maybe how to do other things, but it's difficult to imagine a significantly less expensive way. Learning production lessons on a higher volume aircraft wouldn't necessarily be all that much better.

That's like saying my second marriage is such a success because my first marriage was such a failure.

I suppose that's something that can be true, but I would argue there are better ways to go about it, especially when we consider the point Faury is making about passing tech on to the A350.

IMO a lot of the tech that went into A350 could have been proven out other ways.

It's more believable from the non-tech, organizational structure point of view, but again, it's far from optimal.


The question should rather be what cost more in the end (i.e. both financially and reputationally):

The A380/A350/A320neo/A330neo or the 787/747-8/737MAX/777X/737MAX_grounding ?

-

The competitive business for Large Commercial Airliners (LCA) can be viewed through game-theoretical modeling, where decisions by one player are dependent on the moves expected of the other player. For example, in game-theory terms the response from Boeing vis-à-vis Airbus was very likely based up on the view that the A3XX/A380 was threat to Boeing's continued supremacy in the widebody category.

Boeing's initial response to the A3XX concept was the discontinued 747-500X/-600X programme that was initiated in order to stop the A380 dead in its tracks before it got traction in the market. Once the A380 was launched, Boeing responded with first, the Sonic Cruiser concept, and later, the 7E7/787 and 747-8.

Now, Boeing has a long history of seriously underestimating Airbus, primarily starting with the A320 in the mid 1980s. Boeing’s response was initially the 7J7 concept and only later, the 737NG. Boeing's early weight estimates for the 787 -- which turned out to be wildly optimistic -- clearly indicates that they thought the 787 would be so superior that it would do to the A330 what the 777-300ER already was doing to the A340-600. In fact, Boeing's strategy was designed to force Airbus to have to respond to the 777-300ER and 787, with one programme. It appears that Boeing never thought possible that a re-engined and updated A330 could compete with the 787 and that the primary response from Airbus (A350) would be able to compete nicely with both the larger models 787 and 777W follow-on.

Boeing estimates that the 787 will be 30,000 lb to as much as 40,000 lb lighter than the Airbus A330-200, depending on which of the following three 787 configurations is chosen


https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/boeing-sets-pace-for-composite-usage-in-large-civil-aircraft

With the A350, Randy Tinseth & Co* seem to have actually believed in their own delusional talking points and probably never imagined how easily Airbus has been managing to increase the capability of both the A350-900 and A350-1000. In fact, based on their hard-earned lessons learned on the 787 (weight etc.), Boeing may have initially believed that Airbus would overshoot A350 XWB weight estimates by about the same percentage points as what Boeing experienced occurring with the 787. It's interesting to note, however, that nobody seems to ask the question why Airbus so easily and cheaply were able to neo the A330, while Boeing was not able to do the same ting with the 777-300ER.

From the 787 and onwards, it appears that Boeing's game-theoretic models have lacked the compilation of comprehensive product dossiers detailing every aspect of their arch-rival’s aircraft that might possibly have concluded, that not only would a re-engined and updated A330 be able to compete with the 787, but that neither a souped-up 737NG and a re-winged 777 would be able to, respectively, compete properly with a re-engined A320 and a state-of-the-art, large composite twin family, nor any future derivatives of that family (i.e. A350-2000 etc.).

* “The A350-800 has failed, the -1000 has failed and all they have is a one-trick pony with the -900,” Tinseth told reporters. “The A330 was withdrawn 10 years ago because it couldn’t compete with the [Boeing] 777. The A350 has failed with the same engine [that Airbus is proposing to use for the A330neo.”


https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2014-07-14/boeing-debuts-dream-niner-and-slams-airbus-plans


Boeing underestimated Airbus? The 787 program provided the engines that could be adapted to the 747-8. This gave the 747- 8 an engine that was at least half a generation ahead of the engines Airbus was using on the A380. The 747-8 prevented Airbus from offering an A380-700. The overly heavy A380-800 was thus also burdened with less efficient engines than those available on either the 787 or 747-8. With the excess weight baked in for an eventual stretch, the A380 was set up to not have a big enough CASM advantage to justify most airlines to get an airplane with so many more seats. Now with large twin 777X and A350-10's there are smaller planes with equal or better CASM to the A380-800 which is now a dead end product that won't be receiving many improvements going forward.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:25 am

Revelation wrote:
That's like saying my second marriage is such a success because my first marriage was such a failure.

I suppose that's something that can be true, but I would argue there are better ways to go about it, especially when we consider the point Faury is making about passing tech on to the A350.

IMO a lot of the tech that went into A350 could have been proven out other ways.

It's more believable from the non-tech, organizational structure point of view, but again, it's far from optimal.


For sure there are better ways to go about learning lessons, but then it wouldn't be lessons. I am sure Boeing would rather not have learned about battery technology or how to communicate MCAS changes from the NG to the MAX. The important point for both OEM's is that they learn their lessons because they will make mistakes and it can be seen that those lessons were learned on the execution on the A350.
 
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seahawk
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 am

OEMs can ask airlines what they want for the future, which might not be the same as what they will buy in the future.

And at the time Boeing and Airbus were not seeing eye-to-eye. Airbus had the A320 series which was not even at 50:50 to the 737NG. It had the A330 which did fine against the 767, the A340 was dead against the 777 and they had nothing to fight the 747 with. And at the time the VLA idea was very much a hot topic. It was the solution for slot restricted hubs and the right choice to bring air travel prices down. Every design decision was based on airline wishes, the mistake was that they listened to the wrong airlines. A fate that might come calling for the 777-8/9 as well.

So in the end both OEMs went for the market segment where they had their weakest (or no product) and where it faced the weakest competition. For Airbus the was the VLA market, for Boeing it was the 767/A330 segment. But if one is honest neither trusted their own predictions that much, as both made an efforts to stay competitive in both markets, with Boeing doing the 747-8 and Airbus struggling with the A350 Mk.I.

Imho the A380 was worth the effort for Airbus, as it turned Airbus from something like a holding which simply controls many different firms, to one unified company.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 am

If the world would end today, shutting the A380 program is the right decision.
Except that the world doesn't end today and probably not for several more billion years.
Airbus' decision to end the A380 program will be seen as one of the most short-sighted business decisions of the industrial era in no more than a decade from now.

15 years on, people are screaming at Boeing for ending the B757 program, which at the time seemed like the right decision. Little s. did Boeing know that just a decade later, new engines would be produced that could have made of the B757 a true game changer.

Point to point, bla bla. 99% of twin widebodies are flying hub to spoke routes.
Sure, they opened up a few new routes. For instance the NH B789 NRT-BRU flight. No wait, bad example, SN used to fly that with A343 and even B743 at times.
Then let's talk about HEL-NRT with A350 An B787's. No wait bad example that's hub to hub and flights are leaving 30 minutes apart so doesn't add frequencies, could have used a larger aircraft instead but they are idiots.
Any examples of real point to point?
Ah yes, PER-LHR. After the initial excitement, it's dead silent.
Anybody can come up with examples of point to point high frequency newgen twin widebody routes or an argument that Faury is making sense?
Which routes have more than double daily newgen twins on it?

Airbus' new management are trying to sell you a C-class for the price of a S-class (Mercedes) . Except, the sales are not so good because airlines can't afford A350's and not even A330neo's that come at a huge premium compared to the CEO's. Heck, airlines are not even ordering masses of A321XLR, because a 2022 A321XLR could set you back double of what a 2012 A321CEO did.

Airbus and Boeing are seeing the exponential traffic graphs that we are seeing and rubbing their hands at the huge future prospects. They would rather sell 1000 A350's than 500 A380's.
The Russians can't seem to get out of the loop of poor support and low rate production.
The Japanese can't make up their minds.
The Canadians and Brazilians have thrown in the towels.

New challengers are decades out, aircraft are becoming too expensive.
 
Sokes
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Re: A380 was success for Airbus, says new CEO

Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:34 am

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards."
Soren Kierkegaard

Airbus launched the A380 in December 2000. At that time Emirates carried around 5 million passengers/ year. In 2019 Emirates approached 59 million passengers. Without Emirates old airlines may have upgraded to A380s.

Why the A380 isn't the transpacific plane of choice is something I don't understand.

Was frequency as much of a concern in 2000 as it is today?

Airbus tried GLARE. That probably didn't work out as expected. Nevertheless it had to be tried.

19 years later British Airways is still comfortable with it's B747-400. Did Airbus expect the A380 to be more economical than it finally became?

Why did Airbus build the 8000nm version first? It's obviously a plane meant for CASM, not for frequency/ RASM.

What technologies were designed for the A380 which found entry into A350? I rather think a lot got changed: No GLARE, carbon wing

The GE90-115B got approved in July 2003. Anybody knows how much money was already spent on A380 development at that time?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
marcelh
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Re: Airbus Boss Does Not Regret A380 Decision

Mon Dec 02, 2019 10:50 am

MSPNWA wrote:
I don't expect him to say anything different, even if the truth is that Airbus regrets the decision. It's today's corporate speak.

But when viewed from a business standpoint, it shouldn't have been built. There's no getting around that.


Ít shouldn't have been built the way Airbus did, with the strech already built into it. An optimized A380-800 would have been cheaper to fly and more attractive to a lot of airlines which didn't take it now.

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