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Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 1:56 pm
by bob75013
ctrabs0114 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
All indications are the MAX is to be back in service in July.

DEN is at the edge of MAX range. Flights will be like earlier (pre-scimitar winglet) 738 flights by AS (restricted winter loads). I have no doubt it will be done, it is a question of when.

I 100% agree with the preference for frequency. That gives HA a huge advantage in a downturn. But so far, from people I talk to, the service is well received. I have no idea on profitability. Personally, I think a steady state will be arrived at where HA still dominates inter-island flying.

But that doesn't mean WN won't grow. Expecting a customer to fail usually results in lost market share.

The MAX will be forgotten in two years. I doubt the will initially go all MAX. But eventually one rationally allocates resources. That means putting aircraft with on the routes they are better for. In the winter, the MAX is needed for full loads. By winter, customers will be comfortable again.


I'm curious as to what you're basing your opening sentence on. From what I saw on the one of the Dallas-area news stations earlier this week, each 3M8/3M9 will need at least 150 hours of maintenance for software upgrades, fluid/engine checks, etc. once the FAA approves Boeing's solution.


On the 23rd the FAA made two statements

1) It expects to recertify the MAX in June
2) It told airlines it saw no need to extend the time that airlines have banished MAXs from their schedules (mostly August, although UA just extended the ban til August).

There will be teams of people getting aircraft/flight crew ready to fly. If the ban is lifted in June, then MAXs will have the capability to dribble back into service shortly thereafter.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:17 pm
by lightsaber
bob75013 wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
All indications are the MAX is to be back in service in July.

DEN is at the edge of MAX range. Flights will be like earlier (pre-scimitar winglet) 738 flights by AS (restricted winter loads). I have no doubt it will be done, it is a question of when.

I 100% agree with the preference for frequency. That gives HA a huge advantage in a downturn. But so far, from people I talk to, the service is well received. I have no idea on profitability. Personally, I think a steady state will be arrived at where HA still dominates inter-island flying.

But that doesn't mean WN won't grow. Expecting a customer to fail usually results in lost market share.

The MAX will be forgotten in two years. I doubt the will initially go all MAX. But eventually one rationally allocates resources. That means putting aircraft with on the routes they are better for. In the winter, the MAX is needed for full loads. By winter, customers will be comfortable again.


I'm curious as to what you're basing your opening sentence on. From what I saw on the one of the Dallas-area news stations earlier this week, each 3M8/3M9 will need at least 150 hours of maintenance for software upgrades, fluid/engine checks, etc. once the FAA approves Boeing's solution.


On the 23rd the FAA made two statements

1) It expects to recertify the MAX in June
2) It told airlines it saw no need to extend the time that airlines have banished MAXs from their schedules (mostly August, although UA just extended the ban til August).

There will be teams of people getting aircraft/flight crew ready to fly. If the ban is lifted in June, then MAXs will have the capability to dribble back into service shortly thereafter.

If the fix is good, FAA is stating the work will take 3 to 4 weeks.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.seattlet ... %3famp%3d1

It is absurd to consider this fix would take 150 man hours per aircraft. Work is also never performed serial.

One team will update the cockpit. I assume new switches, lights go in. Another skill set loads the software.

The other checks required can usually be performed in half a day by an experienced team. It is a slightly expanded A check.

My expectation is one team goes in the morning to perform changes then moves onto aircraft #2. Another team that just completed most of the preps on aircraft #2 come over to aircraft #1 and finish the checks. On overtime, they go back over to aircraft #2 to finish post fix checks. Repeat 6 days a week (mass overtime).

So 12 aircraft per team per week reintroduced.
I would expect WN to assemble 10+ teams to do this.

Selling tickets will be the biggest hold up. Perhaps parts, which if Boeing hasn't ordered at risk, airlines will be pissed. I fully expect ticket sales to start as soon as certified. I expect a quiet launch to Hawaii and then the push I described with flights from the inland hubs. (PHX, LAX, DEN, and possibly SLC). Note, I haven't looked into MAX MTOW from SLC, so my possibly.

I'm highly curious as to LEAP performance on quick turns. Today's hotter engines will be tougher to manage.

Please note the 3 to 4 week clock already started. If the FAA hasn't mandated overtime, they should expect a budget fight from any state budget hurt by the loss of tax revenue (states will lose more than Boeing... ironic in my opinion). Don't forget to include the half dozen states dependent on GE/CFM revenue. I see no pressure on an thorough audit, I see pressure to mandate overtime.

So recertification in June is quite possible as early as mid-June, but I expect a week delay for show. Any discovery requiring a software or hardware change will result in a minimum 10 week delay. I would bet on a 20% chance of a discovery.

Lightsaber

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 10:25 pm
by F9Animal
I do believe WN is doing well in Hawaii, and I am sure forecasts show promising results. I do not believe WN is out to hurt Hawaiian Airlines either. Alot of airlines have learned to survive with WN in their territory.

Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sat May 25, 2019 11:10 pm
by hiflyeras
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 12:32 am
by 9w748capt
hiflyeras wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Haha right? I understand that the 737 is horrible for anything more than an hour, but not sure how exactly it would take days to recover.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 12:38 am
by Cubsrule
9w748capt wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Haha right? I understand that the 737 is horrible for anything more than an hour, but not sure how exactly it would take days to recover.


It’s the exact same seat that WN flies on all sorts of 5 or 6 hour domestic flights (anything east of the Mississippi to OAK in the winter will push 5 hours). Flying over water does not magically make it less comfortable.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 12:48 am
by RWA380
hiflyeras wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Different things for different people I guess, I remember dreading my first 737 to Hawaii, but as an AS loyalist, I boarded that flight to HNL & was just fine for the 6h 20m flight. I's obviously better in F, which I have also done on AS & it was worth the extra space using paid upgrades.

The seats on AS 737's have better pitch than many carriers, narrowbodies & widebodies, but the smaller cabin has people thinking it's maybe a different experience. HA is the exception, although flying PDX-OGG, HA flies mostly the A-321, just another narrowbody that is a bit longer, but the HA experience is just a bit nicer than mainland carriers, because of the Hawaiian themed atmosphere & hawaiian themed meals, plus all the kind Polynesian experience HA is well known for.

Remember thousands upon thousands of people fly 737's on 5+ hour missions daily, including every T-con & Hawaiian destination on AS & WN.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:05 am
by ctrabs0114
lightsaber wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:

I'm curious as to what you're basing your opening sentence on. From what I saw on the one of the Dallas-area news stations earlier this week, each 3M8/3M9 will need at least 150 hours of maintenance for software upgrades, fluid/engine checks, etc. once the FAA approves Boeing's solution.


On the 23rd the FAA made two statements

1) It expects to recertify the MAX in June
2) It told airlines it saw no need to extend the time that airlines have banished MAXs from their schedules (mostly August, although UA just extended the ban til August).

There will be teams of people getting aircraft/flight crew ready to fly. If the ban is lifted in June, then MAXs will have the capability to dribble back into service shortly thereafter.

If the fix is good, FAA is stating the work will take 3 to 4 weeks.

https://www.bing.com/amp/s/www.seattlet ... %3famp%3d1

It is absurd to consider this fix would take 150 man hours per aircraft. Work is also never performed serial.

One team will update the cockpit. I assume new switches, lights go in. Another skill set loads the software.

The other checks required can usually be performed in half a day by an experienced team. It is a slightly expanded A check.

My expectation is one team goes in the morning to perform changes then moves onto aircraft #2. Another team that just completed most of the preps on aircraft #2 come over to aircraft #1 and finish the checks. On overtime, they go back over to aircraft #2 to finish post fix checks. Repeat 6 days a week (mass overtime).

So 12 aircraft per team per week reintroduced.
I would expect WN to assemble 10+ teams to do this.

Selling tickets will be the biggest hold up. Perhaps parts, which if Boeing hasn't ordered at risk, airlines will be pissed. I fully expect ticket sales to start as soon as certified. I expect a quiet launch to Hawaii and then the push I described with flights from the inland hubs. (PHX, LAX, DEN, and possibly SLC). Note, I haven't looked into MAX MTOW from SLC, so my possibly.

I'm highly curious as to LEAP performance on quick turns. Today's hotter engines will be tougher to manage.

Please note the 3 to 4 week clock already started. If the FAA hasn't mandated overtime, they should expect a budget fight from any state budget hurt by the loss of tax revenue (states will lose more than Boeing... ironic in my opinion). Don't forget to include the half dozen states dependent on GE/CFM revenue. I see no pressure on an thorough audit, I see pressure to mandate overtime.

So recertification in June is quite possible as early as mid-June, but I expect a week delay for show. Any discovery requiring a software or hardware change will result in a minimum 10 week delay. I would bet on a 20% chance of a discovery.

Lightsaber


The 150 hours of prep time comes from the tail end of this video report from KDFW-TV I referenced upthread:

http://www.fox4news.com/business/faa-ch ... x-s-return

The relevant portion is in the video at the 2:50 mark in which the reporter cites Reuters as the source for that figure (which is actually 100 to 150 hours, per the report). But, the way you explain it in that several teams will be working on the aircraft once the go-ahead is given to make the repairs and re-certify the 3M8/3M9 makes more sense than the way it was explained on TV when I heard the figures cited initially.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:11 am
by barney captain
tomaheath wrote:
barney captain wrote:
I've lost count of the number of "thank you's" from the locals while doing the interisland flying - and not just from the passengers - from people on the street.

I always look forward for a comment from you when it comes to Southwest Airlines.


Thank you Sir - I appreciate the kind words.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 10:30 am
by Lensman
Aptivaboy wrote:
Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


From what I'm reading, that isn't probable. The real issue is that the islands can support a certain number of people at any given time, based upon infrastructure - emergency services, food, and above all, housing. Several islands have gone above this number on more than one occasion, far more than one in Maui's case. That's a big reason that the locals give tourists the stink eye so often; the touristas are literally so underfoot that the locals are hemmed in within their own homes and communities, and services are "taxed" to the limit. The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number. Indeed, the state recently voted to partially defund a state supported tourism board because of these events. It may have been Maui instead of the whole state, I'll see if I can find the cite, but the basic truth of that remains.

Can i get a citation or background on this? My friends and relatives there haven't heard anything about this, nor did I when I was last there a few months ago.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 3:42 pm
by F9Animal
hiflyeras wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Okay, so maybe I left out some minor details!!! LOL!!! I was stuck in the middle seat, and I was just miserable. I kicked myself because if I had taken Hawaiian, I could have sat in the 2 seat side where I could have had a window or aisle. And yes, it took 3 days to recover, because I dont exactly have the best back. The only time I had to stretch was the bathroom run.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 3:43 pm
by F9Animal
Cubsrule wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:

That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Haha right? I understand that the 737 is horrible for anything more than an hour, but not sure how exactly it would take days to recover.


It’s the exact same seat that WN flies on all sorts of 5 or 6 hour domestic flights (anything east of the Mississippi to OAK in the winter will push 5 hours). Flying over water does not magically make it less comfortable.


It wasnt actually WN on the OGG trip. Like I said, I would have rather flown on a wide body where I had more opportunities to be able to get out and stretch.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:05 pm
by 9w748capt
F9Animal wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
9w748capt wrote:

Haha right? I understand that the 737 is horrible for anything more than an hour, but not sure how exactly it would take days to recover.


It’s the exact same seat that WN flies on all sorts of 5 or 6 hour domestic flights (anything east of the Mississippi to OAK in the winter will push 5 hours). Flying over water does not magically make it less comfortable.


It wasnt actually WN on the OGG trip. Like I said, I would have rather flown on a wide body where I had more opportunities to be able to get out and stretch.


What would you do for a transcon? The vast majority of those are operated by narrowbodies. Would you only fly a widebody on any flight 5 hours or longer?

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 9:29 pm
by RWA380
F9Animal wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Personally, I have taken the PDX to OGG route on a 737. It took 3 days to recover from the flight, as those seats are not ideal for 5 hour plus flights. I really wished I had taken Hawaiian instead.


That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Okay, so maybe I left out some minor details!!! LOL!!! I was stuck in the middle seat, and I was just miserable. I kicked myself because if I had taken Hawaiian, I could have sat in the 2 seat side where I could have had a window or aisle. And yes, it took 3 days to recover, because I dont exactly have the best back. The only time I had to stretch was the bathroom run.


Damn, bad backs suck, I got titanium rods holding mine together & no cramped position is going to make that feel any better, I am sorry to hear that. Last coach flight I took, was HA HNL-PDX back in December 2016 on a 763 (which I love) & luckily we got the two side at row 16 & honestly, it was the most comfortable coach flight I had had since my surgeries.

I get a bit lagged going to Hawaii when it's the three hour time difference, for a day or two I am up at 6am wide awake & struggling to stay up late enough to watch the news at ten o clock. I now have a way of getting upgrades luckily, so I book far in advance & pay the bit extra between base fare & upgradeable & fly F saving my back for floating in the ocean face down looking at fish.

I can fly on passes anytime I want to, but I think of exactly what you are talking about & just pay up for the comfort now, since I am not rich, it just means I don't fly as much as I would like to & each destination a bucket list one.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Sun May 26, 2019 11:05 pm
by N212R
Polot wrote:
I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.


Even more so given that HA receives the most federal dollars per capita of all US states.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 12:50 am
by admanager
N212R wrote:
Polot wrote:
I doubt Hawaii has any legal standing to implement something like that. You are talking about restricting interstate travel/commerce.


Even more so given that HA receives the most federal dollars per capita of all US states.


As of May 2019, Hawaii ranked 40th on the list of states dependent on the federal government.
https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-l ... ment/2700/

Your quote was about per capita, And here it ranks 10th - due to to the large defense spending.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ec ... /39202299/

Hawaii is doing just fine.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:06 am
by 77H
Lensman wrote:
Aptivaboy wrote:
Frankly Hawaii is a saturated market. There's talk amongst locals about instituting severe taxes to limit the amount of tourists each year.


From what I'm reading, that isn't probable. The real issue is that the islands can support a certain number of people at any given time, based upon infrastructure - emergency services, food, and above all, housing. Several islands have gone above this number on more than one occasion, far more than one in Maui's case. That's a big reason that the locals give tourists the stink eye so often; the touristas are literally so underfoot that the locals are hemmed in within their own homes and communities, and services are "taxed" to the limit. The real solution would be to cap the number of planes and passengers to maintain the islands at or below that critical number. Indeed, the state recently voted to partially defund a state supported tourism board because of these events. It may have been Maui instead of the whole state, I'll see if I can find the cite, but the basic truth of that remains.

Can i get a citation or background on this? My friends and relatives there haven't heard anything about this, nor did I when I was last there a few months ago.


Hawaii News Now, KITV, Honolulu Civil Beat have all had articles that talk about a push for more “sustainable” tourism and how that might be accomplished. Again, one proposal I’ve seen is to increase the amount of taxes that target the tourism industry. The premise is to get more money in taxes and spending from less tourists. Similar to airlines decreasing capacity to increase yield.

Again, this is just one of several proposals that have been voiced but I’ve seen it come up several times which to me, would indicate that it is gaining traction in certain circles. It’s not something that is certain to happen, just one of many proposals.

77H

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:54 am
by frmrCapCadet
Good tax policy is complex. What sectors, if any, do tourists not cover their infrastructure cost? What is the competition doing? What will it cost to expand tourist infrastructure? If the goal is to subsidize and expand the non-tourist economy that really isn't a tourist responsibility. If a goal is to cover possible downturns in the economy and loss of tourists (cover cost of loans for tourism infrastructure borrowing) that is a concern.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Wed May 29, 2019 4:50 am
by F9Animal
9w748capt wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

It’s the exact same seat that WN flies on all sorts of 5 or 6 hour domestic flights (anything east of the Mississippi to OAK in the winter will push 5 hours). Flying over water does not magically make it less comfortable.


It wasnt actually WN on the OGG trip. Like I said, I would have rather flown on a wide body where I had more opportunities to be able to get out and stretch.


What would you do for a transcon? The vast majority of those are operated by narrowbodies. Would you only fly a widebody on any flight 5 hours or longer?


Believe it or not, I would prefer to make a few stops along the way. I flew the nonstop from SEA to LGA (I think it was on AA?) last year on a MAX? It was awful. Bad backs and long flights like that just kill me. Getting up and stretching is good, but I was stuck in a window seat, and I didnt want to irritate my neighbors. My trip to the bathroom was another epic experience! Those bathrooms are pathetic! LOL!

I came back from New York a few weeks later on Southwest. A connection in MDW really made a big difference. It wasnt as bad as the nonstop trip.

Re: Motley Fool 5.19.2019 - Southwest Inter-Island Service, "doing extraordinarily well."

Posted: Wed May 29, 2019 4:54 am
by F9Animal
RWA380 wrote:
F9Animal wrote:
hiflyeras wrote:

That coach seat of the exact same size on an aircraft other than a 737 would have made such a huge difference, eh? Oh spare us.


Okay, so maybe I left out some minor details!!! LOL!!! I was stuck in the middle seat, and I was just miserable. I kicked myself because if I had taken Hawaiian, I could have sat in the 2 seat side where I could have had a window or aisle. And yes, it took 3 days to recover, because I dont exactly have the best back. The only time I had to stretch was the bathroom run.


Damn, bad backs suck, I got titanium rods holding mine together & no cramped position is going to make that feel any better, I am sorry to hear that. Last coach flight I took, was HA HNL-PDX back in December 2016 on a 763 (which I love) & luckily we got the two side at row 16 & honestly, it was the most comfortable coach flight I had had since my surgeries.

I get a bit lagged going to Hawaii when it's the three hour time difference, for a day or two I am up at 6am wide awake & struggling to stay up late enough to watch the news at ten o clock. I now have a way of getting upgrades luckily, so I book far in advance & pay the bit extra between base fare & upgradeable & fly F saving my back for floating in the ocean face down looking at fish.

I can fly on passes anytime I want to, but I think of exactly what you are talking about & just pay up for the comfort now, since I am not rich, it just means I don't fly as much as I would like to & each destination a bucket list one.


That is going to be my primary way getting to Hawaii next time I go is on HA. Mainly because of that seating configuration. Sorry to hear about your back too! I have a separated SI Joint from a trip out of a malfunctioning elevator. I mean, seriously? This aging thing sucks. Had it happened in my 20's or 30's, I really think I would have bounced right back. It's been almost 4 years of absolute misery. I need a fusion, so I am anxiously preparing a date for surgery.